30 June 2009

Still goose-able after all these years

So voice of the cabinet minister reworked its website.

Lots of changes, but the thing looks like a supermarket tabloid on acid.  In the dictionary, next to the word garish, there is now “See VOCM website”.

The one thing that hasn’t changed is the question of the day.  This has become rather notorious in local political and news circles as not merely unscientific but also as a poll which someone connected to the current administration actively gooses as need be.

The way to do it has been explained publicly.  It would be a simple fix if VOCM wanted to stop churning out crap.

No way did it get fixed; the poll is still goose-able to the point of absurdity.

And VOCM still reports the rigged poll results as if they were real, let alone news.

No wonder they get called voice of the cabinet minister.

-srbp-

29 June 2009

Voice of the cabinet minister make-over

Over at the redesigned voice of the cabinet minister website, there is now audio with just about every short news clip.  In some cases there’s a bit of video.

In the story on a news release from opposition leader Yvonne Jones, the audio clip is from Dave ‘Sentence Fragments” Denine, the intergovernmental affairs minister. 

Denine got scooped by the opposition, but never let it be said that VO didn’t make sure the CM got his own words on a story.

But that just raises another bunch of questions.

Denine’ s the guy who should have been talking about the fact the federal Conservatives aren’t delivering on their 2005 promise.  After all, that’s the government talking point to try and deflect attention from the fact that most of them bought the Connie bullshit umpteen times after 2005.

For an opposition party, reminding Denine and the rest of that fact would be the logical starting point. 

They could drag in John Hickey, the minister for Labrador Affairs who campaigned a couple of times on the bogus battalion alongside his federal Connie cousins.

And if all else failed, they’d could  now tee off on Denine and Hickey for failing utterly to hold the federal Connies feet to the fire, to use that horrid phrase.

Instead, Jones goes after Stephen Harper as if she was a federal politician.

All is not lost in the local opposition world.

Jones now has the chance to go headlong at the local crowd. Denine – obviously knowing nothing at all about the military  - refers to a bunch of buildings constructed decades ago for the air force as “first-class” infrastructure for the army.  He then tells VOCM that he’ll be going back and have a chat with the federales to see where Goose Bay fits in.

Hint:  it doesn’t.

Jones could be pinging political hit after political hit against the skulls of two incompetent cabinet ministers for building up false hopes in the people of Goose Bay when they should have known  - and should now know – much better.

Shame on Dave and John, should be her line.

Shame on Steve is just too easy, too obvious and totally meaningless locally.

People around these parts  - especially Bond Papers readers - already knew not to trust the federal Connies on the bullshit battalions. 

All Denine does in his voice clip is pretend the promise is real.

Just wait until the ABC Leader gets back.

-srbp-

Burn your boats!

Over at labradore there has been some delight in poking at an opinion piece that turned up in the weekend Telegram and over at NL Press.

That’s the one that started out with the really creepy metaphor over the whole Danny/Randy thing:

On its face, this question reminds me of the pushy, unappreciative parent who says, "Fine, you got 90% on the test. What happened to the other 10%?"

As we noted before, Randy Simms is apparently the province’s – or Danny Williams’ – demanding father.

Ordinary political discourse is now reduced to someone’s psychological demons if that metaphor is to be believed. 

Then there is the logical implication:  if Randy is everyone’s Dad, then we might also wonder who Jeff Rose-Martland would have as the June Cleaver in this lost episode of Leave it to Beaver penned by Rod Serling.

Perhaps, if the classics are more you speed, you might be considering the prospect that, with a bit more thought, Rose-Martland  could have gifted the writers of the annual Review sketch comedy shows with a local version of Oedipus for next year. 

Anyway…

The latest labradore post on the subject shows only a tiny example of how this defence of the Premier’s testiness is actually an example of the very pessimism, negativity and crap the Premier was supposedly ranting about.

The negativity part is easy:  that would be the first line in which Jeff Rose-Martland accuses Randy Simms of making his comments out of spite.

Anyone who actually heard Simm’s lead-in that fateful day  - Rose-Martland certainly didn’t - or anyone who knows Simms would appreciate that such an imputation is not only being negative, it’s being pretty bloody vicious. Simms doesn’t have a spiteful, malevolent bone in his body.

The pessimism permeates the opinion piece.  It really comes to the fore when the writer likens the fishery to a bog. One presumes he meant quagmire and not a colloquialism for toilet;  that isn’t a safe presumption though, given the whole things slips to the Freudian fairly early on.

The crap part is actually the line which labradore reprints:

Premier Williams looks forwards to a prosperous future where Newfoundland is a successful industrial society, free from the vagaries of nature, and is working to accomplish that.

Now before going any farther let us note the sentence is constructed as if Mr. Rose-Martland is speaking authoritatively on behalf of the Premier or has some firm knowledge of the Leader of The Province’s policies.

The vision held by the Premier, we are told, is of a Newfoundland (but not  Labrador, apparently) society that is not only prosperous but industrial and, as a result ,not affected by nature’s caprice.

Let us begin by establishing that the whole statement is crap, as in nonsense.  Danny Williams and his crew may not have devoted sufficient attention to anything but the oil industry in the eyes of many but at no point has anyone from the administration, Williams included, suggested consigning the rest of the economy to the bog.

But look at the phrase:

…Newfoundland is a successful industrial society, free from the vagaries of nature…

There’s something about those words which is familiar.

Really familiar.

Wait a minute.

Not exactly those words, but something really close.

Hmmm.

That’s basically the Smallwood industrialization policy in the 1950s and 1960s:  everything from rubber boots to eyeglasses and ladies gloves, all as a wage-based alternative to the pre-Confederation fishery. Now to be fair, the policy embraced industrialization in the fishery as well but people don’t necessarily remember that, though.  They just remember what they think Smallwood said and the phrase that captures the idea: 

Burn your boats.

Rose-Martland’s understanding of recent history is clearly as off-base as his metaphors.  The current state of the fishery is not the result of the vicissitudes of fortune, the cruel hand of nature that sometimes delivers bounty and at other times starvation.

Rather, the local fishery in its current form is suffering from the combined impacts of at least two forms of human folly. 

The first is over-fishing perpetrated by the locals with as much zeal as the foreigners.  They decimated the cod-stocks, purely and simply.  Lest someone get a tad upset at that suggestion, let some enterprising person put the question bluntly to people like Gus Etchegary and not relent until he gives a straight answer on the fishing practices at FPI when he was there.

The other folly has been successive federal and provincial policies that have sought to keep the fishery organized as a social welfare program rather than let it develop as a sustainable industry.

Successive governments in both Ottawa and St. John’s have preferred, it would seem, to be engineers of a societal soul - with all its Stalinesque implications -  rather than allow the fishery to develop in such a way that the people engaged in it could earn a decent living by their own labour.  There have been impediments to progress, resistance to change that has come, as much as anywhere else, from politicians themselves. 

Those who seek change in the fishery and in other sectors of the local economy are not the people caricatured by Rose-Martland.  One can say caricature since his piece is built, for the most part on sheer invention.

The people about whom Simms spoke are those who are seeking to get beyond the current day, where government hand-outs make up the balance of a very meagre total income.

If Rose-Martland was actually paying attention to any current discussions,  he’d realize the only people hopelessly mired in the past when it comes to the fishery are the very people he claims are looking steadfastly to some supposedly idyllic future. 

The people talking about changes are the people in the industry:  processors, harvesters and plant workers alike.  The only people talking about stamping up the fishery workers, but only if necessary, to tide them over until maybe next year are the Premier and his fish minister. Both are currently out of the province.  One is on vacation.  The other is heading off to foreign lands as proof of how much he cares.  Well, that’s a paraphrase of the way his deputy put it.

The politicians and others trying to respond intelligently and thoughtfully to current economic problems should be troubled by the sort of endorsement that one finds in Rose-Martland’s piece for the current administration. 

Not only does his argument display an appalling  ignorance of the subjects about which he writes, it misrepresents the current government’s policy in the process.  There are enough people who believe that Danny measures the future in only barrels and megawatts, not in quintals and cords.  Rose-Martland doesn’t help matters with his self-confident assertions about what Danny wants, even if his assertions aren’t supported by evidence. 

The real political problems for the current administration come from the fact that - put aside all the money supposedly spent in the past five years -  the current provincial government has shown it has absolutely no idea about what to do with the fishery. 

Their policies have been a combination of status quo and  still more of the same, interspersed with a one-day gab fest that produced nothing meaningful and the break-up of Fishery Products International.  There may be people within the administration with new and good ideas, but thus far they do not seem to have impressed their colleagues  of the need for action. 

Even without any evident ties to the Tories, Rose-Martland the most ardent of Fans of the leader of The Province, the first Townie Premier in 80 years, will surely be taken as representing the way the townies are thinking about things out beyond the woods and the wilds.

The political problem is not that there are no ideas on how to bring about substantive change in the fishery, how to make it competitive and sustainable both for the stocks and for the people who depend on them.

The political problem is that the politicians seem unable or willing to bring about change.   If the fishery is a quagmire, it is a political one and only political leadership will avoid a disaster.

No good can come of just hoping the whole thing will pass away. Nor can any good come from what amounts to a work of fan fiction.  The Premier would be right to reject such a genuine mountain of pessimism, negativity and crap just as surely as he assailed Randy Simms for an imagined one.

-srbp-

“The Call” – yet another one

Via Geoff Meeker, yet another story of a Call from Hisself:

The premier’s “disappointed” calls are not limited to media. Over the weekend, I spoke with a private citizen who, some time ago, wrote a letter of complaint to Danny. He, too, received an angry call from the premier. I’ll have more on that in my next entry.

-srbp-

Hands up who is surprised.

The new battalion of soldiers promised to Goose Bay by the always-desperate federal Conservatives way back in 2005 does not exist.

The Connies promised it several times after that.

But it does not exist.

It never has existed.

In a recent letter to the provincial government, National Defence Minister Peter Mckay [sic] confirmed that the federal government will not be making any investments into their rapid response battalion or additional troop deployment at Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Goose Bay, says Opposition Leader Yvonne Jones.

The June 3rd letter is written to Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dave Denine and states, “Goose Bay was never considered as an option for the territorial battalion group” and “…the army currently has no planned investment in Goose Bay”. This is in direct contrast with the 2006 election commitment of Prime Minister Stephen Harper when he stated that a new rapid reaction army battalion of approximately 650 personnel would be established at CFB Goose Bay and that these plans would result in a significant increase in employment in the Goose Bay area.

Hands up anyone out there who is surprised by this?

See there.

That fellow in the back of the room there needs to be reading Bond Papers.

Regular readers had the scoop four years ago and  hopefully  didn’t fall for yet another ludicrous political promise  - unlike some provincial Conservatives - in any of the federal elections since.

-srbp-

28 June 2009

Manitoba tops for oil/gas investment in Canada

A Fraser Institute survey of 577 senior executives in the oil and gas industry shows Manitoba as the preferred Canadian jurisdiction for oil and gas investment.

The survey ranked 143 jurisdictions across the globe:

Manitoba is No. 21 on the list of 143 regions, while Saskatchewan has fallen from the 10th spot (out of 81 regions represented) in 2008 to 38th in 2009. Meanwhile, Nova Scotia was No. 54, Ontario was 60, Quebec 68, British Columbia 71, Newfoundland and Labrador 82 and Alberta 92.

 

-srbp-

Food for thought: the politics of jocks versus nerds

Not HMV: another journalist gets “The Call”

Add journalist Greg Locke to the list of those who have received The Call from Hisself in which Hisself expresses “disappointment” in what the journalist is up to.

Could be what you wrote. 

Could be that you had the temerity to request a copy through access to information laws of the “purple file” Hisself had worked up on you to get him ready for the interview.

Next thing you know The Voice is on the end of the line:

Calls on your mobile from the richest, most powerful man in the province are not the same as emails at your work. Journalists don’t call him at home to abuse him. Journalism is done in a free media. That’s where the discussion should take place. Anything else is intimidation and it sets a bad public tone.

Have any intrepid reporters recorded any of this stuff? 

You could do a 30 minute weekly series called “Conversations with the Premier”  just on this material alone.

Only different is the title would have a tinge of sarcasm in it.

Maybe not a good idea though.

It’s been done.  Used to be on one TV station locally, with another version on radio.

Now it’s on cable, someone mentioned the other day.

And they changed the name to something about fog.

-srbp-

 

-srbp-

27 June 2009

What’s sauce for the Harper goose…

So the Telegram has been waiting 18 months to get the resolution of an access to information request for files everyone knows exist but the Executive Council claims doesn’t exist.

Well, not exactly.

The President of the Executive Council  - i.e. the Premier - has admitted on a couple of occasions that “purple files” are real and that he gets them to help prepare for meetings and interviews.

The Telegram knows they exist anyway because one of the Premier’s officials accidentally let it slip in an e-mail.

But when the Telegram submitted an access request, the Executive Council’s official response was that there were “no responsive records.”  That’s bureaucratese for “the records don’t exist.”

Ed Ring, the provincial access commissioner, and his staff have been working on the Telly appeal of the Executive Council denial for 18 months with no end in sight.

The Telegram editorial today raises the issue again and notes that when faced with a similar bit of stonewalling recently, Ring’s federal counterpart publicly announced he’d be using his legal powers to simply enter the government offices and seize all the relevant documents.

Apparently just the threat worked in convincing the federal stonewallers to comply with the law and cough up everything:

Privy Council staff delivered some documents yesterday, the deadline set by Marleau, and promised to deliver the rest soon.

"(Privy Council Office) has already sent several packages of the requested files," Privy Council spokesperson Jeffrey Chapman said in an email yesterday. "We have also sent a proposed action plan to the Office of the Information Commissioner outlining when we will be able to send the working and final record sets to their office."

The Telegram suggests that Ed Ring do the same thing here.  Ring needs to look at the documents just to make the decision;  he doesn’t have to disclose them.

He’s got the legal powers just to get a look at them under the province’s own access laws. 

That’s good advice, especially given the current administration is evidently breaking the Premier’s own commitments from before the 2003 election.  In some instances, the delays, obfuscation and others refusals to disclose documents are exactly the opposite of what Danny Williams pledged to do when he went looking for the Premier’s job in 2003.

You’d think that just the fact that Premier Danny Williams is out of step with then-opposition leader Danny Williams  would be enough to nudge him to correct the problem. 

But if that doesn’t work,  maybe he should consider that – in essence – Danny Williams and his people are doing the same thing in Newfoundland and Labrador that Stephen Harper and his people are doing in Ottawa.

That can’t be good.

How could he ever talk badly about Stephen Harper again  - ABC and all that - when he does exactly the same things?

What’s sauce for the Harper goose is sauce for the Williams gander.

-srbp-

First hand account of death in Iran

-srbp-

26 June 2009

“Stimulus”: price tag on delayed fisheries centre jumps 71% before construction starts

That aquaculture veterinary facility promised by the provincial government to start in 2007 was originally supposed to cost $4.2 million.

It was supposed to open in 2009.

Tenders for site preparation just went out.

The tender for construction won’t be out until the fall.

The new cost is $7.2 million, 71% higher than when it was first proposed.

Tracy Perry, the provincial Conservative member of the legislature for the area attributes the cost over-runs to “design and tender work” whatever that means.

The facility will still take two years to build.  Construction is supposed to start this year but the thing just went to tender, two years behind schedule.

Odd then that back in January, fisheries minister Tom Hedderson described the building as if it was already under construction:

“As well, the new aquatic veterinary facility that my department is building in St. Alban’s is going to help improve on these protocols even further by enabling more timely testing and results.” [Emphasis added]

There’s also a news release from the same time where Hedderson is quoted as saying the same thing.

Incidentally, the size of the new facility hasn’t changed even though the price tag is almost double what it was.

rideout In 2007, then fish minister Tom Rideout told the people of St. Alban’s that the facility would house 10 staff and their offices and equipment. “He said the new facility should be operating by the end of 2008.”

In 2009, the completed facility “is expected to house 10 staff, including development and inspection personnel, as well as aquatic health staff and veterinarians.”

Wonder why the project took two years to start and will cost almost twice as much – during a major recession – if it is basically going to do now what it was supposed to do then.

-srbp-

Demographics update

From labradore, a series of posts commenting on perceptions of where the province’s population is the greatest.

“Population Observation” I, II, and III.

popchange-regional

This pretty little picture is one of the type some people find a wee bit disturbing, apparently.  It’s taken from the third post in the series that looks at the population decline on the Avalon peninsula.

Of rural areas, Labrador has had the “least bad” population decline, losing “only” eight percent of its 1986 population in the ensuing twenty years to 2007. The Northern Peninsula and the South Coast of Newfoundland had by then each lost nearly a third of the population they had in 1986.

The rural off-Avalon island as a whole has lost 23% of its 1986 population up to 2007 — a figure which is very comparable to the population loss in the Avalon Peninsula outside the St. John’s CMA during the same time period, 21%. Or, on other words, the rural Avalon has really done no worse, but no better, demographically speaking, than the rest of rural Newfoundland.

-srbp-

Due diligence: Gaultois fish plant shut

Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro chopped the power because of an unpaid bill by the previous owner.

Provincial fisheries lifted the plant license in a dispute over construction of a wastewater treatment system for the plant.

The provincial government apparently fronted the money, the preliminary work was done but the contractor wasn’t paid.

[Provincial fisheries] Minister [Tom] Hedderson said that Atlantech did the work and were ready to put the treatment equipment in the Gaultois plant. However, a serious problem arose when the company was not paid for its initial work. Basically, government gave GB Seafood International the first $182,000 of an approximate $400,000 project to pay for the work completed by Atlantech. However, the money was never paid to the PEI company and no one seems to know where the money is.

Read the rest from The Coaster.

The money for this little disaster came from a 2007 announcement by former fish minister Tom Rideout. 

That would be the same one in which he announced construction of an aquaculture veterinary facility that would be finished by 2009.

They called the tender for construction this month.

And announced it again, not like Tom hadn’t already announced it at least once before.

Anyway…

Do the words due diligence mean anything to anyone any more?

The best line in The Coaster story is the one where it’s clear there’s nearly $200,000 of public cash gone and no one knows where it is.

-srbp-

Kremlinology 2

All regimes have patterns.

When the pattern changes, the change becomes a curiosity.

The current provincial Conservative administration, like the Liberal one before it, likes to make money announcements and include the local member of the legislature in the news.  That is, they are included provided he or she is of the same  stripe as the party in power.

When the local MHA isn’t included, especially when he is a cabinet minister, it tends to pique the curiosity.

The pattern this week:

Not the pattern:

  • $232K for a local service district but the announcement doesn’t include the local MHA, Trevor Taylor.

Might mean absolutely nothing.

Might be a sign of something.

Right now:  just a curiosity.

Not quite the Summer of Love, again, is it?

Nope.

It’s pretty far from the Summer of Love when the provincial government has to start issuing lame news releases in an effort to quiet the discontent growing around the province.

Not the Summer of Love.

Not by a long shot, although the government cash is flowing with the same or greater intensity.

If Danny jumps in the Winnebago again, you’ll know things are bad.

-srbp-

Eat it!

If nothing else, Michael Jackson inspired some of Weird Al’s best parodies.

There’s Eat it, the parody of Beat it.  Then  there’s Fat, the parody of Bad.

But there is much more than the weirdness that marred Jackson’s later life. There was a life of creating some popular and fine  music.

Here’s one of your humble e-scribbler’s favourites from the Jackson Five:

Kremlinology

Years ago, your humble e-scribbler studied Soviet politics.

The tightly controlled, secretive, autocratic society of Bolshevik politics, gave rise to a whole bunch of western academics who tried to figure out the workings inside the seat of power – the Kremlin – by studying all sorts of seemingly insignificant details.

They’d study photographs to see who was standing next to the acknowledged powerful in order to spot either the rise or fall of certain people within the leadership.  They’d study the wording of documents to see how things changed and see if that meant something.

There’s a pattern to regimes and so these Kremlinologists would look for changes in the patterns.  Then they’d try to figure out what the changes meant.

Sometimes it’s fun to play the old games again.

Like say studying a news release of government money for a project to see if there is anything that doesn’t fit the usual pattern.

Lookee here:  a news release announcing that a regional municipal service organization on the Northern Peninsula is getting an $232,000 of provincial money to help it fight fires and look after garbage disposal.

The money is called an “investment.”

Nothing strange there.  The current provincial administration doesn’t spend money.  It invests public cash in all sorts of things.

Taking out the town trash is called “waste management”.

Again, another classic piece of modern bureaucratese.

Given any government’s record of spending public cash on dubious projects, some wags would suggest that the act of government spending is itself really an exercise in “waste management”, but that’s another tale.

Back to the case at hand:

Things are actually looking pretty innocuous so far.

Quotes?

Yep.

Two.

One from the minister responsible for helping towns fight fires and haul away their refuse, the Honourable Diane Whelan, she of the multiple announcements of money she didn’t actually have.

Another one from the guy running the local crowd that are getting the “investment”.

Another couple of checks in the standard boxes.

Wait a second.

Where’s the quote from the member of the House of Assembly for the area?

If there’s one thing any government of any stripe does, it’s give the local boy credit for “investments” especially when said local boy is one of their own team.  Just this week alone, Harry Hunter got a quote added to spending on a school in his district.

Flower’s Cove and environs is in the district represented by Whelan’s cabinet mate ,Trevor Taylor.

Now, Trevor is no ordinary fellow.  He ran once for the New Democrats and then, in 2001, was elected for the provincial Conservatives in one of two by-elections on the Great Northern Peninsula. 

That two-fer was heralded by newly minted Conservative  leader Danny Williams as the first ripples of a Tory tsunami that would sweep the Liberals out and put the Tories back into power.

Trevor’s been in cabinet a while and has carried the can for a number of projects, good and bad.  He’s been a loyal soldier and right now he’s got a few thousand constituents up in arms over everything from the downturn in the forest industry to the downturn in the fishery.

The loggers blocked a road this week trying to get a meeting with Trevor.  The fisherman plan a protest aimed at the provincial government’s lack of help  this week now that they’ve already protested about the federal government’s lack of help.

And it’s not like lesser mortals than cabinet ministers don’t get to hand out the pork.

Tory backbencher Derrick Dalley  - a recently appointed parliamentary secretary to the education minister - turned up in the Lewisporte Pilot back in April handing out a cheque from the provincial government for money from a grant program to support sports initiatives.  The money was described as a “donation”, the new term for government program spending that isn’t an “investment”.

Derrick’s likely not alone, by the by.  Since the spending scandal dried up the slush fund that used to be constituency allowances, the government crowd seem to have discovered the political usefulness of letting the crowd on the back benches do some bacon-doling.  His colleagues are out there with cheques, too;  they just don’t always make the local paper.

Anyways…

No quote from the cabinet minister of some seniority about spending in his own district at a time when the guy could use the good coverage.

And it’s not like Trevor hasn’t had other shared announcements.

Hmmm.

It’s not like he’s Ray Hunter or something, either.

Ray’s the guy who showed up in the legislature this past sitting to find his desk and chair moved right next to the exit door.  He probably had to keep shifting to avoid getting the door in the head every time someone went out for a leak or a smoke.

Ray’s also had to defend himself publicly from accusations by angry constituents that he is not allowed to speak freely within his caucus.  Of course, that pretty much confirmed them.

Hmmm, indeed.

Now the thing about kremlinology is that it is one of the more dismal of dismal sciences.  Think of it as economics but without the accuracy.

This omission could be nothing at all.

Or it could be a sign.

A sign of something very important.

-srbp-

25 June 2009

Police investigate allegations in SK and ON party races

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police are investigating some aspect of the recent leadership race for the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party:

NDP CEO Deb McDonald said the Mounties requested 1,102 membership forms that were submitted in April by an overzealous volunteer from the Dwain Lingenfelter campaign that were later cancelled by the party.

"We immediately said we would absolutely co-operate in any way that we can," McDonald said.

"On Monday we turned over the memberships and today they informed me that they are starting a criminal investigation."

Lingenfelter won the party leadership on Saturday, capturing 55 per cent of the votes cast, compared to 45 per cent of the votes garnered by Saskatoon doctor Ryan Meili.

Meanwhile,  the Ontario Provincial Police are investigating allegations of voter intimidation in the race to replace John Tory as leader of the provincial Conservative party:

Progressive Conservative Party president Ken Zeise has asked the Ontario Provincial Police to investigate a letter that was mailed to some members of the party, warning them that the RCMP was conducting its own probe into allegations involving voter fraud in provincial party leadership contests.

The letter is clearly “bogus,” Mr. Zeise said in an interview on Thursday. And while the letter was sent by someone with access to the names and addresses of party members, Mr. Zeise said he has no evidence to suggest that a party member was behind it.

He said he called in the OPP after officials representing two of the leadership hopefuls – Christine Elliott and Frank Klees – formally complained to him and asked him to investigate the matter.

-srbp-

And then there’s announcing money you haven’t even got…

That CBS bypass road extension seems to be a field of political landmines for Tories.

Not only did Fabian Manning blow off some bits of his political anatomy with promises for money that wasn’t approved, Manning’s former caucus mates seem to have spoken a wee bit out of turn as well.

In December 2007, Manning and federal cabinet representative Loyola Hearn talked about a federal transportation initiative that would cost-share some roads work with the province.

On January 10, 2008 a news release appeared issued by provincial transport minister Diane Whelan announced “$182 million in road improvements, the largest such funding in the province’s history.”  The release covered a raft of cost-shared projects involving the provincial and federal governments.

Included in the list of projects was – you guessed it - “$3.5 million for Conception Bay South (CBS) By-Pass Road Extension.”

According to a Telegram story this week (not online) on the whole mess:

But a provincial news release from January 2008 commits $3.5 million for the extension, and the letter from Baird confirms the province applied for the matching funds in September of that year.

Announced in January but no one applied for the funds until nine months later?

And then the funds weren’t approved until June 2009?

Wow.

It’s one thing to criticise someone else for announcing  projects time and time again over the span of several years, but what would you call it when your own government announces money it doesn’t even have and knows it doesn’t have because they hadn’t applied for it yet?

-srbp-

For Everything There is a Season Update:  Hearn announced on or about December 18, 2007.

So did Diane Whelan, on December 18, 2007, almost a month before her January “for the first time ever” stroke-fest. 

In the release that coincided with Hearn’s, Whelan  announced that “planning is currently underway to identify further infrastructure priorities to be funded under the recently signed Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Framework Agreement.”

"We will be consulting with municipalities and other Provincial Government departments to identify infrastructure projects to be funded under this agreement, and we intend to start spending this spring." said Minister Whalen.

Minister Whelan says that while she is pleased the Federal Government agreed yesterday to cost-share hard-surfacing of the Trans Labrador Highway (TLH), improve the Argentia Access Road and extend the Conception Bay South (C.B.S.) By-Pass, she is requesting the Federal Government be ready to move the projects forward in the spring.

[Emphasis added]

So the planning was so good that while they intended “to start spending this spring”, the provincial transportation department didn’t even apply for funding until September 2008.

September would be the fall of 2008, for those noting the passing of the seasons.

And even then the project wasn’t approved by the feds until June, 2009.  That would be the second summer after the announcement and the second spring after.

Even if the tender is awarded sometime before September 2009 – tick tock, tick tock -  it’s going to be tough to get things geared up before next spring.

That would be more than two full years and the third spring after the thing was supposed to start.

Oh yes, while we are on the subject of planning, let’s all recall the words of Trevor Taylor - Whelan’s successor – a couple of weeks ago:

We had been proactive and our sound strategic planning allowed us to move forward with a series of significant projects very smoothly.

Proactive is a hideous corruption of a word but it is generally taken to mean getting things done in a timely way. 

Applying for cash ten months after an announcement would be pretty much the opposite of proactive.

And making an announcement without cash doesn’t suggest there is very much of anything that looks like planning, let alone planning that is strategic and definitely not planning that is both strategic and sound.

Then again, half the projects Taylor was talking about a couple of weeks ago  were old. 

Some of them dated back to 2005.

At least another one – besides the CBS bypass – was promised in 2007 with completion in 2009.

It just went to tender.

And those old projects had been announced time and time again.

Scuttling his own political future

Senator Fabian Manning went a long way this week to ensuring he won’t be able to make a comeback in elected politics any time soon.

The guy who beat him – Scott Andrews – revealed that Manning had committed the federal government to spend a couple of million or thereabouts on a road in the eastern end of the riding Manning used to represent. 

Only problem was the money wasn’t anything close to approved when manning made the announcement in late 2007.  Not only that but it wasn’t approved until this week and hastily announced the day Andrews scored a big political smack right in Manning’s possible future.

Manning did some media interviews on the affair.  In the process, he managed to come off looking like a guy scrambling to come up with excuses for his obvious blunder.

In the story printed by the Telegram (not online), writer Dave Bartlett attributes the following to the junior senator:

The senator then explained what happened.

He said the original project was funded under the Rails for Roads agreement, but the provincial Liberal government of Clyde Wells scuttled that program in 1988.

Neat trick that would be.

The federal and provincial governments signed the Roads for Rails agreement (see page 11 of the link) in 1988.  In exchange for money to upgrade roads across the island portion of the province, the federal government was relieved of its constitutional obligation under the 1948 Terms of Union to operate a rail service across Newfoundland.

In 1998, Brian Peckford sat in the Premier’s Office.  Clyde Wells was Leader of the opposition and didn’t get to the Eighth Floor until May, 1989.

But even then, Manning’s accusation that Wells scuttled the roads deal is completely out to lunch.  From 1988 until the program ended in 2003, the roads deal paid for a host of projects all of which were pretty well mapped out at the start, the year before Wells took office.

Not only did Fabe make the blunder of announcing money he didn’t have, he then made it infinitely worse by coming up with a completely bogus excuse once he got caught.

And it’s not like Manning wouldn’t know the rights of things.  He sat in the House of Assembly from 1993 until his local Tory buddies flicked him out of caucus.  Every year , Manning would have heard announcements about roadwork paid for by the Roads for Rails agreement.

Heck, even Loyola Hearn knew that the roads deal didn’t die in 1988.  CBC quoted Hearn on the very same announcement Manning was chatting up in December 2007:

Hearn, Newfoundland and Labrador's federal cabinet representative, said it's the biggest program of its kind since the roads-for-rails agreement hammered out in the late 1980s, when the Newfoundland Railway was closed down.

All things considered, Manning would be nuts to even consider taking another run at elected politics.  Better off  to sit in the Antechamber to the Kingdom of Heaven than blow holes in your own political hull the size of that one on the CBS bypass road.

-srbp-

It’s not called Answer Period

And sometimes you wonder if the cabinet minister involved doesn’t want to answer or doesn’t know the answer.

Consider this exchange between opposition house leader Kelvin Parsons, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale and the future of Corner Brook’s Number 4 machine.

Dunderdale’s been known to be dodgy with the details before.  In late 2006, she actually told the House two completely different stories about the Joan Cleary fiasco all within the space of a week.  She may have just been stumbling at the time but she wound up – in effect – misleading the House about what was on the go with the hand-picked partisan head of the Bull Arm Corporation and the Public Tender Act.

In the case of Corner Brook, one suspects Dunderdale has avoided any potential embarrassment by learning that the session of the House is called Question Period.  No where does it say you have to give an answer.

On May 14, Parsons asked Dunderdale:

What, if any, discussions have been ongoing between government and the company with respect to number four and to ensure that it will re-operate in the future?

Dunderdale’s response:

Mr. Speaker, first of all I have to correct the Opposition House Leader. Thirty people were not laid off. Thirty people were affected. In fact, there has been no job loss. There has been hours of workers on the call-in list affected but there have been no layoffs permanent or temporary as a result of the shutdown of number four.

Now, Mr. Speaker, Corner Brook Pulp and Paper made it quite clear in their announcement yesterday that markets have not improved. In fact, one of their largest customers does not have the need and requires less paper.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Oh, oh!

MR. SPEAKER: Order, please!

MS DUNDERDALE: So, because of those circumstances, number four will, from a month-to-month basis, continue to be shut down.

At least one paper machine at Corner Brook has been idled since 2007. Dunderdale said at the time the provincial government was pumping $20 million in subsidies into the Corner Brook mill.

Her predecessor, Ed Byrne, announced subsidies for Kruger in 2006 but didn’t reveal the dollar amount involved.

In the latest round of cuts at Kruger, the provincial government is already offering unspecified additional cash to keep the mill going.

-srbp-

24 June 2009

How not to win friends but influence people

Former New Democratic Party national director Gerald Caplan offers some insights into national politics in the Globe and Mail this week.

His comments are biting and their wisdom clear. These are not the remarks of someone who feels the need to sugar-coat his views in order to curry favour.

New Democrats and Liberals should therefore consider his advice seriously.  They should heed his counsel if for no other reason than he clearly is not bent on winning friends.

He should win them nonetheless and influence people in the process.

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Kruger slashes 130 jobs in Corner Brook

Corner Brook Pulp and Paper Limited announced Wednesday the company will not re-start the Corner Brook  mill’s idled Number 4 paper-making machine.  The move will result in the loss of 130 jobs.

The move is blamed on deteriorating markets.

The Premier and other members of cabinet met with union officials on Wednesday afternoon at the government’s main office building in Corner Brook.

"There's no numbers put on the table from a perspective of … 'government, give us a cheque for this amount of money.' But [what] we have said is that we're prepared to play our part quite simply as we always have in any of these situations," [Premier Danny] Williams said.

"Our primary concern at these times is always the workers, the workers who are affected right now. And this mill needs to stay viable and competitive and needs to stay alive. And that's what we're discussing."

That tone compares markedly to the confrontational one that characterized government discussions with AbitibiBowater in Grand Falls-Windsor before that mill closed earlier this year.

Corner Brook is represented in the House of Assembly by the Premier and justice minister Tom Marshall.

In a related story, loggers are protesting on the Great Northern Peninsula to draw attention to their plight.

The forestry industry employs between 400 and 500 people on the peninsula.

The protest was called off around midday [Tuesday] to give politicians time to respond to the loggers. [Spokesman Ralph]Payne said Transportation and Works Minister Trevor Taylor, who is the Tory legislature member for The Straits and White Bay North, did call Tuesday afternoon and agreed to meet with the association Thursday, but Payne wants more than that.

“We want to meet with all four of them and that includes Trevor Taylor, Natural Resources Minister Kathy Dunderdale and the two other MHAs from the area, Wally Young (Tory legislature member for St. Barbe) and Darryl Kelly (the Tory legislature member for Humber Valley),” said Payne.

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The sins of the father…

From yet another public comment on the trivial Danny right/Randy wrong thing:

On its face, this question reminds me of the pushy, unappreciative parent who says, "Fine, you got 90% on the test. What happened to the other 10%?"

A rather curious way of looking at things, even allowing the letter – found at NL Press – started out by referring to Randy Simms comments as an “appalling display of spite.”

Apparently, Randy Simms is the province’s  - or Danny’s  - unappreciative parent.

Let’s leave aside the idea embodied in that comment that the fishery and the 10,000 or more people in it amount to a mere 10% of the overall consideration of the province when a Great Announcement is in play.

Nope.  Political commentary in the province is now down to some bizarre psycho-drama built around a really creepy metaphor.

Incidentally, at no point does the author of those words actually discuss the Great Announcement from last week.  In itself that is further proof that the Premier’s tirade was way off base and that his Fan Club  - now labelled Kool-Aid Kids by Simms - need to get their heads realigned.   [Hint:  even Danny says it isn’t about Danny.]

Anytime you unleash your bladder and drown your own story, you can be pretty much assured it was a better idea to hold it until later.  When you manage to divert attention away from such a great set of announcements  - there were at least four phenomenal pieces of news in one speech – then you really need to suspect you have a problem with verbal incontinence.

And this guy is not alone.  There were columns in the weekend Telegram on the meltdown, two letters to the editor on Tuesday and countless comments on the Internet.

All about the tussle.

Not the Great News.

-srbp-

23 June 2009

No fed funding approved for roadwork, despite 2007 announcement

Avalon member of parliament Scott Andrews said today that a federal contribution for roadwork in Conception Bay South has not been approved despite an announcement of the funding in 2007 by then Conservative member of parliament Fabian Manning.

Andrews posed a series of questions to federal officials in April:

With regard to funding from the government, through the Department of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities, for an extension of Conception Bay South By-Pass Road, from Legion Road to Seal Cove, in Newfoundland and Labrador:

(a) was there an official approval of this project by the government on or before December 17, 2007 and, if so, (i) what amount of funding was approved, (ii) what date was it approved, (iii) why was it not included in a news release issued by the Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities on December 17, 2007;

(b) if no formal approval was given for this project by the government prior to December 17, 2007, has there been any formal project approval given for an extension to the Conception Bay South By-Pass Road since December 17, 2007 and, if so, on what date; and

(c) is the project to extend the Conception Bay South By-Pass Road, from Legion to Seal Cove, currently being reviewed or recommended for approval within the Department of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities?

There’s a short news story and a video clip at vocm.com.

The provincial government included the CBS by-pass road work in a list of stimulus projects released earlier in June. The project is indicated as scheduled to go to tender this fall.

The same project was also listed in a 10 January 2008 news release from the provincial public works department. Terry French, CBS member of the House of Assembly also mentioned the project in a speech in the legislature on March 13, 2008:

I am delighted actually to say that our Cabinet and our government have decided that the CBS Bypass would be a priority under the roads program and that they would commit the $3.5 million to $4 million. I am delighted with that, Mr. Chair. Actually the provincial share is ready. The Minister, Diane Whalen, was at the announcement and assured the residents that the provincial share of the money is there and we are ready, we would call tenders this spring. Mr. Chair, we are ready to go and I certainly hope that our federal counterparts are as eager and as willing as we are because we have the check [sic] written, if you will, and ready to go with that announcement.

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H1N1 case in Eastern School District

A note to parents of children in Eastern School District indicates that a case of H1N1 was identified in a school “in a rural area” of the district.

The note from district chief executive Ford Ride includes advice from Dr. David Allison, the region’s medical officer of health, on H1N1 and what to do in the event someone displays symptoms.

The note is dated June 19.

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Hibernia clarification clarification

The provincial natural resources department issued a “clarification” today on some figures contained in its news release last week.

Seems they gave incorrect figures for production from the existing Hibernia field.

The original release quoted the Premier himself as saying that:

“The original Hibernia field has produced 670 million barrels to date and the provincial treasury has seen $3.9 billion from that production.”

The exact same phrase turned up in the Premier’s speaking notes for NOIA, by the way.

The “clarified” version is:

The correct figures are approximately 630 million barrels with revenue valued at $1.9 billion.

Both figures are supposed to represent cumulative oil production from first oil in 1997 up to the end of March 2009.  The mistake is described as a “transcription error”.

According to the “clarification” – not a correction – this is the only error and “does not affect any other numbers in the news release or any other publications.”

Here’s the real number:  up to the end of April, 2009, the Hibernia/Avalon field had produced 636,957, 170 barrels of oil.  Hibernia produced a little over 605 million barrels p to the end of April 2009.

That figure was readily available  - at the time the release was issued last week  - from the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board.

Hmmmm.

Makes you wonder though if some of the other numbers might be off just a wee bit.

Like say this one from the same quoted attributed to the Premier:

“We expect a further $13 billion from the remaining main field production…”.

That was based on an assumed price of oil of US$80 a barrel, as the Premier indicated in subsequent interviews.

Okay.

The offshore board gives three estimates of the reserves at Hibernia: proven; prove and probable; and proven, probable and possible.  Let’s call them P1, P2 and P3 for simplicity sake.  We’ll also knock off the Hibernia South Extension oil since that is apparently included in the totals for Hibernia.

Here’s the way it works out.  The figures are in millions of barrels:

P1

P2

P3

782

1244

1916

Less production to end Apr 09

636

636

636

Sub-total

46

608

1280

Less Hibernia South Extension*

46

220

220

Total remaining

0

388

1060

Low royalty (30%)

$ 9.312 billion

$25.44 billion

High royalty (42.5%)*

$1.56 billion

$13.192 billion

$36.04 billion

*  Note - Approximately 50 million barrels of the extension come from the original Hibernia production license.  That corresponds roughly to what remains in Hibernia based on CNLOPB figures and allowing that the provincial figures are a month older than the CNLOPB ones.  Since the government news release indicated the 50 million was being produced at the 42.5% royalty, it’s pretty clearly working under the original Hibernia Tier 2 royalty regime.

Here’s where things get a wee bit interesting.

Once you do a little simple math, it’s pretty clear the provincial government news release deliberately chose the least volume of remaining oil when calculating the potential return from Hibernia now that pay-out is achieved.  They put that together with the  Tier 1 and Tier 2 super-royalty from the original Hibernia agreement (1990/2000) since that is what oil at US$80 a barrel would deliver.

That’s not bad for a project that wasn’t supposed to pay-out -  ever  - and that Danny Williams and others have trashed as one of the great give-aways of the past. 

Even without going a step farther, those figures pretty much demolish the idea that Hibernia was a give-away.  Not only will Hibernia deliver in spades from here on out but the royalty regime developed in 1990 and amended in 2000 is the basis for the Hibernia South agreement.  There can’t be much higher an endorsement than to have the old deal used as the basis for the new one negotiated by the guy who, supposedly, is fighting relentlessly against any more give-aways.

Incidentally, using the same oil price assumption, the Hibernia South extension would deliver $8.8 billion in royalties (at the high end assumption of 50%).  The oil company share would produce $1.7 billion, without accounting for any development, production or decommissioning costs.

Just scan across to those P3 figures, though, and try not to let your eyes pop out.  The figure can’t be discounted. In fact, when natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale vetoed the Hibernia South extension plan in January 2007, she cited that high-end reserve estimate in her letter to the offshore board:

image

That P3 figure would mean that what remains of the original Hibernia deal would yield more in royalty alone than the “White Rose extension, Hebron and Hibernia South” in royalty and “revenue”.

Now there are a few more curious or questionable statements from the speech and news release last week, besides that one about Hibernia production.

For example, in the Premier’s NOIA speech we get this pair of paragraphs that came back-to-back just as they are presented here:

I am also extremely pleased to confirm today that after nearly 12 years of production, the Hibernia project is now in "payout" meaning the province is now receiving a royalty of 30 per cent.

When you consider the agreements reached by our government in terms of oil and gas development I think you will agree that although we had some critics and skeptics along the way, we have delivered for the people and for the industry in this province.

As the release makes plain – if you go back and check the facts -  Hibernia in payout delivers 42.5% from the original royalty deal not 30%.

The second paragraph, though, appears to take credit for both Hibernia hitting pay-out and for delivering the massive royalties.  Both those are a direct result of  a deal negotiated almost 20 years ago.

It all makes you wonder when might we expect some further “clarifications” – they should really be corrections to factual mistakes and misleading claims -  from last week’s announcement?

-srbp-

There’s no pleasing some people

That’s the thing about being a political saviour.

People expect you to save them.

There’s no good complaining, as Danny Williams did last week with the host of a local talk radio show.

Not only do you manage to overshadow your own good-news announcement less than an hour after you made it, people don’t really care any more about the umpteenth round of good news.

In central Newfoundland, people are not happy since the major private-sector employer left Grand Falls-Windsor and the provincial government stepped in to scoop up the most lucrative asset, the hydro-electric generators owned by three companies.

The provincial government resisted calls for financial assistance before finally coughing up $35 million for some. Others have gone looking for a bit of provincial help and have been told  - as some of them might see it - to sod off. The local chamber of commerce and the town aren’t happy either since, as the chamber put it, the whole thing looks like the region has lost while the province – read provincial government  - has gained.

And if all that wasn’t bad enough, CBC’s Here and Now is reporting that people the Premier’s own district are worrying that their mill – the last paper-making operation in the province – might also be in jeopardy.

Then there are the 10,000 or so in the fishery reeling under the downturn in markets for their products.  Ask talk show host Randy Simms about them.

Then there’s health care.  On another radio call-in show last week, this time on CBC, Danny Williams made it plain he hasn’t been thrilled with the string of strings about problems in health care.

Compared to previous administrations of any political stripe,  Danny Williams and his administration have had a relatively easy time of things.  The usual local political demands have either never materialised or were met with the cash.  No one got a “no” unless there was a good reason.

Those days appear to be over.  The global recession is producing economic problems and political demands, that seem fairly typical for anyone watching local politics for more than the past few minutes, are surfacing with unsettling regularity.

As much as it is pretty simple to criticize Danny Williams’ for his public tirade last week, that litany of problems recited above is probably the view from his office.  As much as he claims to be an optimist, and as much as Williams talks about the bright future, the view from his office window must seem pretty bleak.  before the current stuff there was breast cancer and before that there was the House of Assembly scandal.  Neither of those is over and, given some media, it seems like it might never go away.

Inside the office, things must surely be stressful.  Government is a tough place to work at the best of times.  There are all manner of problems and issues that crop up.   Cabinet government is designed to manage that by distributing the power to make decisions among different people.  Pull everything together into the Premier’s Office and it can seem to the few people on the end where the spray comes out like  the three inch fire hose of demands is always running on high and that someone has secretly replaced the line with a six inch gusher. 

On top of that, consider that the provincial Tory administration can no longer blame everything on the crowd that went before.  They are now in control and everything is theirs to manage.  That’s a normal transition for every government to make:  after a certain period, every government hits the point where they have effectively taken ownership of government and they see themselves as indistinguishable from it.  

The current administration has been able to work through the past few years thanks to oil money and the lack of any coherent political demands from the province as a whole. They wandered through the first six months and whatever they set in place back them has largely become the pattern. They gained control of the political agenda by inertia and default.

Countless items got left behind in the meantime, a sure sign of a government that took office without the plan of action it claimed to have.  major projects get tackled one at a time, in serial fashion.    Even if this administration isn’t run entirely from one office on the eighth floor of the East Block, it gets pretty hard for cabinet to form a cohesive team if half the people aren’t working every day in the same place (or even the same town) and get together only every week or so for a few hours of cabinet.  That doesn’t get any better when there are large numbers of people within the administration shifting jobs or being appointed only on an acting basis. 

If you stop and think about it for a second, if you put yourself in Danny Williams’ place, it’s not hard to see why he blew up at Randy Simms or even he’s been known to get a bit testy on a fairly regular basis.  He’s in a hard spot.

In 2007, voters gave Danny Williams what he asked for.  They voted for him because they’d learned the way to get anything done was with a Blue member in the legislature.

They performed the rituals of the local political doctrine and now they are looking to get into the Kingdom.

And here’s the thing:  if people think Danny Williams was testy, wait until they see a pack of voters who feels condemned to perdition.

-srbp-

22 June 2009

Chamber concerned seized central hydro assets gain for provincial government, loss for region

The Exploits Regional Chamber of Commerce is very concerned about the benefits from seized hydroelectric assets going somewhere other than the region of the province in which they are located, according to the Grand Falls-Windsor Advertiser.

The chamber estimates that based on electricity used by AbitibiBowater (54 megawatts), savings to Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro in excess of $70 million annually are being realized.

The chamber wrote the CEO of Nalcor in May to try and meet to discuss how the Exploits region could benefit from being adjacent to the source of the power. While the letter was copied to local MHAs and members of the provincial Ministerial Task Force set up to deal with the closure of the mill, Nalcor has not responded.

NALCOR is the provincial government energy company which took control of the assets earlier this year.  They were seized by the government from three companies:  AbitibiBowater, ENEL and St. John’s-based Fortis.

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Darrell Dexter’s Dipper Dozen

new-cabinet-prev Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter’s cabinet comprises a mere 12 members including himself.

Interestingly, the news release is written in the style of what has come to be called a “social media” release.

The new cabinet includes 38.7% of the government caucus and only 23% of the members of the legislature.

Wonder what the comparative numbers for Newfoundland and Labrador would be?

43% and 39.5%.

There are 19 members in the current Newfoundland and Labrador cabinet, including the Premier.  Notice that the Premier is not included in the list of cabinet members even though he is President of the Executive Council.

There are 44 Progressive Conservatives in a legislature of 48 seats.

The new Nova Scotia cabinet is considerably leaner than any cabinet in Newfoundland and Labrador in the past 40 years or so. 

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On confusion and ignorance

From Thursday’s editorial in the Halifax Chronicle-Herald, the newspaper’s editorial crew noted the blow-up at Randy Simms and then penned this:

What’s more, the tentative deal with the consortium of oil companies represents yet another vindication for Mr. Williams’ brand of hardball.

By comparison, the Hibernia South expansion is the mother of all sweet deals. Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Petro-Canada have ceded a 10 per cent stake to the province for $30 million. The tentative deal also gives the province a 30 per cent royalty rate, as well as a "super royalty" rate that could climb to 50 per cent on some aspects of the project.

Hmmm.

Guess the confusing government news release served to confuse even the Chronicle-Herald into believing that the bulk of the Hibernia South royalty regime wasn’t actually negotiated in 1990 without that magical “brand of hardball.”

Odd.

Given that the editorialist did note that the Hibernia project hit payout – and hence the royalty regime was running at 30% - they could have actually checked the royalty regime online and discovered something really interesting.

Oh well.

It’s not like anyone writing anything for the Herald would ever get a phone call from a certain Premier a little miffed over something he saw in that newspaper.

-srbp-

21 June 2009

‘Ethics and accountability’ report card

More than half not done despite 2003 commitment “to deal with them and begin to restore the public's confidence”

Of the 23 commitments made by the Progressive Conservative opposition on what a February 2003 news release termed “ethics and accountability”, 11 remain unfilled and in two instances, the action taken went against the stated commitment.

Amendments to the energy corporation act in 2008 and the research and development corporation act in 2009 both increased the restrictions on disclosure.

No action has been taken to impose six new, tougher restrictions on campaign financing.

No action has been taken to reduce restrictions on disclosure of cabinet confidences and no amendments that would “enhance the transparency of government actions and decisions.”

Of the 10 commitments actually met, one to impose significant penalties for breaches of the lobbyist registration act turned out to be nothing more than a potential one year de-registration.

At least two significant lobbying efforts were never registered.  One involved a multi-million dollar fibre-optic deal.  in another instance, officials of a tourist project now in bankruptcy protection claimed publicly to have been lobbying but never registered their activities.

In two others where action was taken, nothing appears to have been done to implement the commitment until the House of Assembly spending scandal became public.  The commitments – for a code of conduct for members of the legislature and  new administrative procedures on allowances  - were implemented in 2007 as a result of recommendations by Chief Justice Derek Green following his inquiry.

The policy commitments were made by then-opposition leader Danny Williams.  Ironically, Williams was accompanied at the announcement by Ed Byrne, currently serving a prison sentence for fraud and corruption.

Williams’ words at the time proved to be prophetic:

We've invited you here today to address what I see as one of the greatest challenges facing elected governments today. As a result of recent developments at both the provincial and national level, I firmly believe that the public is losing confidence in their elected officials.

We've seen blatant abuse of office and taxpayers' money, allegations concerning conflict of interest, questions of fundraising contributions, and suggestions of impropriety during leadership conventions. These are very serious issues that are eroding the people's confidence in government.

Now, we can either choose to ignore these issues and continue with the status quo or we can attempt to deal with them and restore the public's confidence. I'm saying that it's time to deal with them and begin to restore the public's confidence.

Public confidence likely took a further dip with the revelations of what occurred in the legislature between 1997 and 2006.

Here’s a list of the commitments and notes on the actions taken or not taken.  The complete news release is at the bottom of this post.

Serial

Commitment

Action

1

“We will legislate maximum donations to candidates in Party leadership contests, nominees in Party candidacy races, and candidates in general elections and by-elections.”

 

No action taken.

2

“We will set out in legislation that the cash contribution to the party from an individual or corporation shall not exceed $10,000.”



No action taken.

3

“We will also legislate maximum expenditures by candidates in Party leadership contests, nominees in Party candidacy races, and candidates in general elections and by-elections.”



No action taken.

4

“Furthermore, we will require the full public disclosure of all donations to, and expenditures by, candidates in Party leadership contests, nominees in Party candidacy races, and candidates in general elections and by-elections.”

No action taken.

5

“With respect to Party leadership races, we will require that donations must be disclosed when they occur, and all expenditures must be independently audited and fully disclosed within three months after the election of a new leader.”

No action taken.

6

“We will also enact provisions governing the ownership of unused contributions donated to candidates in leadership races. These legislative provisions will ensure that all unused donations are returned to the donors”.

No action taken.

7

“We will amend the Elections Act to require that provincial elections be held on a fixed date every four years, or immediately if a government loses a confidence vote in the House of Assembly.”

House of Assembly Act amendment, 2004

8

“The legislation will ensure that, if the Premier resigns or the Premier's office is vacated within the first three years of a term, an extraordinary election will be held within twelve months and a new government will be elected to a fixed four-year term.”

House of Assembly Act amendment, 2004

9

“We will also amend the Elections Act to require a by-election to be called within 60 days of a vacancy and held within 90 days of a vacancy, so as to ensure that all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are appropriately represented in the legislature.”

House of Assembly Act amendment, 2004

10



“We will establish a new procedure to provide for the proper auditing and disclosure of the expenses of Members of the House of Assembly.”

Significant new procedures were not implemented until after the disclosure of the spending scandal and not until passage of the House of Assembly Accountability, Integrity and Administration Act in 2007.

11




“We will amend the Access to Information legislation to enhance the transparency of government actions and decisions.”

Amendments to the Energy Corporation Act in 2008 and the research and development corporation act 2009 significantly reduced access to information related to these two bodies. 

There have been no amendments to the ATIPPA to “enhance the transparency of government actions.”

12

“The Access to Information legislation proposed and passed by the Grimes government in 2001 (though it has not yet been proclaimed) allows the government to exclude a great deal of information from release to the public under the umbrella of "cabinet confidences". We will limit that exemption so more information that rightly belongs in the public domain will be accessible to the public.”


No action to limit the exemption.

A request for disclosure of polling (specifically listed in the 2002 legislation as not being exempt from disclosure) was denied initially on the grounds it may disclose cabinet confidences. 

13

“Also, the legislation will be changed so any information that continues to fall under the umbrella of "cabinet confidences" will be released earlier.”


No action taken

14

“We will enact changes to tighten up the exceptions to the release of information.”

Amendments to two other acts in 2008 and 2009 created new mandatory exemptions.

15

“We will remove provisions that allow the cabinet to override the legislative provisions of the Act by regulation at their discretion.”


No action taken.

16

“Finally, we will shorten the time lines for the release of information so information that rightly belongs in the public domain is available to the people of the province on a timely basis.

Access delayed is sometimes access denied.”


No action taken.

17

“A Progressive Conservative government will commission a process of public consultation directly or through a special committee of the House of Assembly to develop appropriate and strict legislation for the registration of lobbyists operating in this province.”

 


Consultation took place in 2004.

18

“The primary objective of the legislation will be to establish a registry so the public can see by whom their Members and their government are being lobbied.”


Lobbyist Registration Act, 2004.

19

“The legislation will require that lobbyists report their activities. It may also require those who hold public office to disclose circumstances in which they have been lobbied.”

Lobbyist Registration Act, 2004.


Public office holders are not required to disclose circumstances in which they have been lobbied.

20

“The legislation may require lobbyists to file their general objectives and/or their specific lobbying activities.”

Lobbyist Registration Act, 2004.

21

“The legislation may differentiate between those who are paid to lobby government and those who represent volunteer or non-profit agencies.”

Lobbyist Registration Act, 2004.

22

“The legislation will impose significant penalties for those who violate these provisions.”
The only penalty that may be imposed is the cancellation of a registration or the refusal to register a lobbyist for period not to exceed one year in duration.

23

“We will also ask the legislature to adopt a strict code of conduct for all Members, to be enforced by the Commissioner of Members' Interests, emphasizing their accountability to the wider public interest and to their constituents, and the need for openness, honesty and integrity in their dealings with the public, constituents and lobbying organizations.”

A code of conduct for members of the House of Assembly was included in the House accountability act in 2007 on the recommendation of Chief Justice Derek Green.

Prior to the disclosure of the House of Assembly spending scandal, no action appears to have been taken on this.

 

-30-

Williams announces policies regarding
ethics and government reform

ST. JOHN'S, February 5, 2003 — Danny Williams, Leader of the Opposition and MHA for Humber West, today announced a number of policies regarding ethics and government reform. His speaking notes follow:

Good afternoon, and thank you everyone for coming out today. Joining me is Ed Byrne, our House Leader, and Harvey Hodder, one of our longest-serving MHAs.

We've invited you here today to address what I see as one of the greatest challenges facing elected governments today. As a result of recent developments at both the provincial and national level, I firmly believe that the public is losing confidence in their elected officials.

We've seen blatant abuse of office and taxpayers' money, allegations concerning conflict of interest, questions of fundraising contributions, and suggestions of impropriety during leadership conventions. These are very serious issues that are eroding the people's confidence in government.

Now, we can either choose to ignore these issues and continue with the status quo or we can attempt to deal with them and restore the public's confidence. I'm saying that it's time to deal with them and begin to restore the public's confidence.

To that effect, I am today announcing several policies to help modernize the electoral process and the day-to-day operations of the government in Newfoundland and Labrador. These policies concern three separate areas that can be classified under the following general headings: transparency in political fundraising, effective government, and regulation of lobbyists.

Each policy area was developed under the basic philosophy that the public has a legitimate right to be informed of their government's activities.

A. Transparency in Political Fundraising

Let's first look at transparency in political fundraising.

The Elections Act limits election campaign contributions and spending, and attempts to promote electoral fairness by allowing candidates to recover part of their campaign expenses from public funds.

However, the intent of the Act is undermined by loopholes that allow political parties to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money before an election is called, and permit unlimited contributions and spending on leadership contests.

A Progressive Conservative Government will amend the Elections Act to close those loopholes.

  • We will legislate maximum donations to candidates in Party leadership contests, nominees in Party candidacy races, and candidates in general elections and by-elections.
  • We will set out in legislation that the cash contribution to the party from an individual or corporation shall not exceed $10,000.
  • We will also legislate maximum expenditures by candidates in Party leadership contests, nominees in Party candidacy races, and candidates in general elections and by-elections.
  • Furthermore, we will require the full public disclosure of all donations to, and expenditures by, candidates in Party leadership contests, nominees in Party candidacy races, and candidates in general elections and by-elections.
  • With respect to Party leadership races, we will require that donations must be disclosed when they occur, and all expenditures must be independently audited and fully disclosed within three months after the election of a new leader.
  • We will also enact provisions governing the ownership of unused contributions donated to candidates in leadership races. These legislative provisions will ensure that all unused donations are returned to the donors.

The public is demanding transparency in the raising and spending of all funds related to the election of Party leaders, Party candidates and Members of the House of Assembly. It is our obligation and our commitment to deliver the transparency and accountability that the public is demanding.

B. Effective Government

We also have seen problems arise over timely elected representation. There have been numerous situations over the last few years in which the electorate has gone unreasonable periods of time without elected representatives. In fact, one district did not have representation for the entire Voisey's Bay debate, which was one of the most important debates that occurred in this province last year. We have an ongoing situation in which the Premier has governed the province for two full years despite the fact that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador did not have the opportunity to elect him. And we have situations in which individuals are not able to obtain information from their government because of countless restrictions and excessive wait periods. This is wrong.

A Progressive Conservative Government will address these issues decisively.

  • We will amend the Elections Act to require that provincial elections be held on a fixed date every four years, or immediately if a government loses a confidence vote in the House of Assembly.
  • The legislation will ensure that, if the Premier resigns or the Premier's office is vacated within the first three years of a term, an extraordinary election will be held within twelve months and a new government will be elected to a fixed four-year term.
  • We will also amend the Elections Act to require a by-election to be called within 60 days of a vacancy and held within 90 days of a vacancy, so as to ensure that all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are appropriately represented in the legislature.
  • We will establish a new procedure to provide for the proper auditing and disclosure of the expenses of Members of the House of Assembly.
  • We will amend the Access to Information legislation to enhance the transparency of government actions and decisions.
  • Our legislative changes will clearly identify information that should be in the public domain, and will require full and prompt disclosure of the information to the public. The Access to Information legislation proposed and passed by the Grimes government in 2001 (though it has not yet been proclaimed) allows the government to exclude a great deal of information from release to the public under the umbrella of "cabinet confidences". We will limit that exemption so more information that rightly belongs in the public domain will be accessible to the public.
  • Also, the legislation will be changed so any information that continues to fall under the umbrella of "cabinet confidences" will be released earlier.
  • We will enact changes to tighten up the exceptions to the release of information.
  • We will remove provisions that allow the cabinet to override the legislative provisions of the Act by regulation at their discretion.
  • Finally, we will shorten the time lines for the release of information so information that rightly belongs in the public domain is available to the people of the province on a timely basis. Access delayed is sometimes access denied.

C. Regulation of Lobbyists

Another activity which must be brought forward for public review involves government lobbying. The governments of Canada and four provinces have enacted legislation requiring lobbyists to disclose their identities, their intentions and their activities. Since there is no such legislation in this province, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador do not know which individuals and groups are lobbying their government to make decisions that will benefit the lobbyists or those they represent. Disclosure reassures the public that their representatives' arms are not being twisted behind the scenes.

  • A Progressive Conservative government will commission a process of public consultation directly or through a special committee of the House of Assembly to develop appropriate and strict legislation for the registration of lobbyists operating in this province.
  • The primary objective of the legislation will be to establish a registry so the public can see by whom their Members and their government are being lobbied. It will not be our intention to impede free and open access to government by individuals and groups, but we will strike the proper balance through transparency and disclosure.
  • The legislation will require that lobbyists report their activities. It may also require those who hold public office to disclose circumstances in which they have been lobbied.
  • The legislation may require lobbyists to file their general objectives and/or their specific lobbying activities.
  • The legislation may differentiate between those who are paid to lobby government and those who represent volunteer or non-profit agencies.
  • The legislation will impose significant penalties for those who violate these provisions.
  • We will also ask the legislature to adopt a strict code of conduct for all Members, to be enforced by the Commissioner of Members' Interests, emphasizing their accountability to the wider public interest and to their constituents, and the need for openness, honesty and integrity in their dealings with the public, constituents and lobbying organizations.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I firmly believe that people are losing their confidence and trust in elected government, and that must change. Our Party is committed to that. It is our intention to begin to address these issues and restore public confidence with these policies.

20 June 2009

Today in history…

On this date in 2006, then natural resources minister Ed Byrne left the annual NOIA conference and went off to discuss with Premier Danny Williams the auditor general’s review of the House of Assembly accounts and specifically some problems discovered in the records for Byrne.

It was a Tuesday.

The next day – over 24 hours after that chat with Byrne – Williams told the rest of the province about what became the House of Assembly spending scandal.

ed and danny How much had changed from a little over five years before when Williams took the reins of the Tory party from Byrne at a convention in St. John’s (left).

Byrne remained a major force within the party up to his resignation on June 21.

To mark the third anniversary of the scandal, Bond Papers has collected together links to the posts on the spending scandal.  You’ll find them if you scroll down the right hand column.  There are a lot since the scandal is huge and continues to reverberate to this day.  The are so many, we’ve had to break them down by year.  The first couple of months worth are ready as this post goes live.  The rest will follow in short order.  Unlike the last link list on the scandal, this one will be a permanent sidebar feature.  Interest in the issue hasn’t abated.

The are arranged chronologically beginning with the first one, posted the evening the Premier told the rest of us some of what he already knew.

The story has gone through a number of twists and turns as more information came to light.  Still, three years later, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador do not have a complete tally of how much cash went out the door nor do they have any idea where most of it went.

Along the way there have been some moments of personal satisfaction for your humble e-scribbler. 

In a post in August 2006 – two months into the scandal -  Bond Papers pointed out how much of that the Auditor General missed in his reports.  Chief Justice Derek Green confirmed it in his report in mid 2007. The Auditor general has never corrected his figures or explained his glaring oversights.

While the Green report turned out to be a significant turning point in the whole affair, the response was less edifying.  As Bond Papers reported first in “One last trip to the trough?” the members of the legislature adopted the Green bill quickly but made sure they didn’t have to live with the chief justice’s spending rules until after the fall election. 

Then- government House leader Tom Rideout proved a source of great entertainment as he tried to explain how in June the legislature had decided to implement the legislation “tomorrow” but in the language of parliament “tomorrow” was not the next day but a day five months later.  Only a title lifted from Get Smart – “Chaos in Control” -  could cover such a piece of hilarity.

Then there was a moment of unease.  In reviewing the posts, you will find one written early on about the use of public money for partisan purposes.  At that point it was only a suspicion. The suspicion was confirmed when Ed Byrne pleaded guilty to the charges levelled against him.

Only five individuals were charged in the scandal.  One pleaded guilty.  Another case is currently before the courts and three more are due to start over the summer and into the fall.

Since the scandal broke in the Bow Wow parliament, other similar stories have emerged elsewhere.  In Britain, the scandal of account mismanagement in the House of Commons has ended political careers sparked numerous investigations and may ultimately topple the Labour government.  The public has received details of the spending and reacted with appropriate anger.

Yet, three years later, and despite a series of investigations, there has not been a full public accounting of the money or where it all went.

There may never be.

-srbp-

19 June 2009

Meanwhile across the border…

The Government of Quebec is advancing plans to develop the Petit Mecatina river, according to a government news release issued Thursday. The project feasibility study is expected this year.

Media reports in early June indicated that the project had been modified to involve two generating stations from the original four.  This would accelerate the development but it is unclear if the other stations could be developed subsequently in order to maximise the power flow.  The headwaters of the river are in Labrador.

The La Romaine project recently received the go ahead.  Both are part of a plan to make Quebec the key source of hydro-electric power in North America. Some 4500 megawatts of power are expected to flow from a series of new projects started by Hydro-Quebec in its 2006-2010 plan.

The La Romaine project caused a political stir in Newfoundland and Labrador over claims by some in the province that the project would lead to a re-drawing of the border between the two provinces and that the La Romaine would adversely affect portions of Labrador.

While it initially dismissed concerns, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador submitted a brief to the environmental panel detailing its concerns.

-srbp-

S-92 crash – TSB report – tail rotor, MGB, “run dry”, flotation system

From the Transportation Safety Board report on Thursday:

  • Flight data recorder stopped working at approximately 800 feet ASL
  • The aircraft was in a controlled, powered-down descent at the time.
  • At approximately 500 ft ASL, the tail rotor drive power was lost (Cause unknown).
photo_3tail rotor gear

 

Photo of 491’s tail rotor, showing damaged teeth.

  • The tail rotor appears to be directly implicated in the crash, a point previously unknown.  At the time of the crash, there was no apparent loss of power to the main gearbox and it was rotating.  This suggests that it had not seized as would be expected if zero oil state had been attained due to leak and the gearbox had failed entirely.  Without oil, it would seize and stop turning.  Initial reports identified this as the main issue and the whole idea of a run dry capability served as the basis for public comment.  it also appears to be a factor in a lawsuit in the United States, launched Thursday.

photo_4tsb

Left:  tail rotor take off gear, new

Right:  tail rotor take off gear recovered from  Cougar 491

  • The TSB report notes suggest another issue (not the MGB) led to the crash:
  • “Examination of the MGB indicates that there was no loss of main rotor drive and that the main rotor blades were rotating at the time of the impact. The examination of the MGB also revealed that the tail rotor drive gears had been severely damaged, resulting in a loss of drive, causing it to stop producing thrust. Further examination is being carried out by the TSB Engineering Laboratory to determine the cause and sequence of this loss of tail rotor drive.

    The metallurgical examination of the titanium oil filter attachment studs revealed fatigue cracking in the studs as well as evidence of thread damage. A detailed metallurgical examination of the studs, nuts, and filter bowl is under way to identify the origin of the fatigue cracks and to determine the fracture mechanism.” [Emphasis added]

     

  • Pilots initiated a main power shut down, immediately  (Time stamps show three seconds), which is standard procedure according to TSB.
  • “The helicopter struck the water at approximately 1226 in a slight right-banked, nose-high attitude at an approximate location of 47°26'03" N, 051°56'34.8" W, with moderate speed and a high rate of descent.”
  • TSB considers the nose-high attitude consistent with a flared landing approach.  With zero power, the descent would have been spiralling due to loss of the tail rotor.
  • The aircraft flotation system did not deploy on impact. “The Sikorsky S-92A flotation system activation switch was found in the armed position after recovery.”
  • The investigation revealed an issue with the S-92A flight manual:
  • “…there is a perception in some areas of the aviation community that the MGB can be run in a dry state - that is, without lubricating oil - for 30 minutes. FAR 29 does not require run-dry operation of a gearbox to meet the 30-minute”.
  • “The Sikorsky S-92A Rotorcraft Flight Manual (RFM) has been reviewed regarding MGB oil pressure loss below 5 pounds per square inch (psi) and the need for pilots to land immediately. An RFM revision has been approved by the FAA and Transport Canada.”
  • Other issues are under investigation, as would be expected in an investigation of this type:

“A number of issues regarding survivability such as passenger immersion suit and crew flight suit effectiveness, use of underwater breathing devices, adequacy of survival training, adequacy of general ditching procedures, personal locator beacons, weather/sea state flight limitations, and Sikorsky S-92A flotation system are currently under investigation.”

18 June 2009

Lack of royalty regime hampers further oil development

Not surprisingly, some people attending the NOIA conference in St. John’s are wondering what is next on the horizon.

As CBC reports, there is much talk of developing smaller fields in the Jeanne d’Arc basin.

mizzen

There is also the recent announcement by StatoilHydro of a significant oil find at its Mizzen property, farther offshore than the three existing projects and Hibernia South and Hebron both under development.

Regardless of its size, Mizzen poses a number of challenges, not the least of which is the cost and technical issues of developing a field – even one of upwards of three billion barrels of oil – in deep water.

There are at least two others.

One is the impact of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Mizzen is well outside the 200 mile exclusive economic zone but may not lie outside the definition of the continental shelf.   If this is the case, the coastal state – namely Canada – would be required to set aside a portion of the revenue (maximum seven percent) from any development for distribution to the other states which are party to the convention.

Article 82

2. The payments and contributions shall be made annually with respect to all production at a site after the first five years of production at that site. For the sixth year, the rate of payment or contribution shall be 1 per cent of the value or volume of production at the site. The rate shall increase by 1 per cent for each subsequent year until the twelfth year and shall remain at 7 per cent thereafter. Production does not include resources used in connection with exploitation.

That’s potentially a significant cost to both Newfoundland and Labrador and to the companies.

That links to the other problem, namely the absence of an oil or gas royalty regime in the province.  Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose and Hebron all have royalty regimes.

The 2007 energy plan wiped out the existing generic oil regime. While the plan promised to replace it and issue a new gas regime, neither has emerged in the intervening years. There is no sign of either coming in the near future.

Even the development of smaller fields on the Jeanne d’Arc basin not associated with the existing projects is affected by the lack of a royalty regime.  The Hibernia South agreement is proposed using the Hibernia royalty regime developed in 1990 and amended in 2000, with some minor amendments.  Other projects would not have that as a basis, nor would it have the Terra Nova, the generic regime used at White Rose or the amended generic regime used for Hebron.

As Danny Williams said in 2005, oil companies don’t like risk.  Really though it isn’t that they dislike risk as much as they prefer predictability.  Even a volatile political climate is manageable, but when it comes to money, the companies like to have a good picture of what their costs will look like over time. That’s where an established royalty regime comes in handy.

In the meantime, some exploration will continue.  Seismic is pretty straightforward.  But when it comes to drilling holes and maybe looking at production, the lack of a predictable financial regime tends to make oil companies skittish.

The situation today is much the same as it was three or four years ago.  There are more exploration and development prospects for Big Oil than there is available capital.  They will put their money where they can figure out the financials.  Anything they can’t calculate  at all will go to the bottom of the pile in favour something somewhere else, even in a part of the world where the politicians in charge change with the sound of gunfire.

Now that Hebron and Hibernia South are pretty much done, the provincial government should turn its attention to restoring stability in the offshore financial regimes.

Above all else, that is what will determine the location of the next project or if there is a project at all.

-srbp-

“How dare you complain about it?”

Not surprisingly, the latest of Danny Williams public attacks against any contrary voices is stirring further revelations.

The biggest news this week was Williams verbal assault on talk show host Randy Simms for suggesting that maybe some other issues in the province – like the faltering fishery – needed some urgent attention.

Apparently, it wasn’t the only testy exchange between the two.  Williams took a snotty tone with Simms during an exchange the week before over government’s role in a botched April announcement on breast cancer testing.

A caller to an open-line show Wednesday afternoon identified only as “Kevin” described his own experience with the political rant from a government member of the House of Assembly.

His crime?

Daring to voice an opinion in a local newspaper.

You’ll find the whole thing over at Geoff Meeker’s blog at the Telegram.

Farther down the post there’s a reference to Tom Marshall, minister of justice, who weighed in to support Williams in his tirade.  Marshall – who is widely respected as knowledgeable and decent – sometimes winds up in these sorry positions defending his boss.

In late 2007 former Tory Premier Brian Peckford was on the receiving end of a Marshall scolding

Curiously enough – in light of Randy Simms comments -  Peckford had dared to suggest that perhaps the provincial government was too focused on oil and that other issues deserved greater attention. Peckford’s was a sensible and reasonable presentation.

Marshall’s on the other hand, was  - uncharacteristically for him - a pile of misrepresentations and mindless Leader worship.  It included this dig which Peckford certainly did not deserve:

And for him to say that we're focusing exclusively on oil and gas would be the same as saying that when he was office he focused exclusively on growing cucumbers, and we all know that's not true. But it's an asinine comment to make and he has to be held to account for it.

Marshall was right, except that the asinine comments were his. And on another level Marshall can be forgiven since he did help put Danny Williams in the job.  Marshall was Williams’ west coast chair for the Tory leadership coronation in 2000-2001.

Marshall defends Williams in the most recent case by saying that if “you are against this province then he – and rightly so – is going to be your worst enemy.”

The only problem with that is that none of the people who have felt Williams’ wrath, like say Randy Simms, could even vaguely be considered to be “against this province.”

To make the point let’s leave aside the politicians.  Let’s forget Loyola Hearn, the guy who Williams supported for premier in the 1989 race to replace Peckford as Tory leader.  Let’s even forget that Hearn returned the favour and helped organize Williams’ campaign in 2000.

Let’s forget Norm Doyle and Fabian Manning.  Let’s leave aside John Efford, Roger grimes and basically any politician before Williams irrespective of party who has been dismissed as perpetrating give-aways.

Let’s just look at the ordinary people who wind up on the receiving end of a “crap” comment:

  • Mark Griffin, a lawyer from Corner Brook was accused of betraying the province when he commented on concerns in central Newfoundland after the closure of the AbitibiBowater mill.
  • From the Gulf News in 2008 during the Memorial University fiasco:

‘However, the most disturbing conclusion of all in this wretchedly pathetic display of political arrogance, is that we now know we have a government with a paranoid determination to control.

Premier Williams has been known to personally call editors and letter writers who offer criticism of him and his government's decisions.

While his stated aim is to "set the record straight" the tactic probably leaves ordinary letter-writing citizens with the sense of "better be careful what you say because He is watching."

This government, quite simply, likes to control the message.

It also likes to attempt to control public debate and opinion.’

  • Craig Westcott (The Newfoundland Post) and David Cochrane (CBC Provincial Affairs reporters) have both been cut off from interview opportunities with the Premier, the latter for only a short period but the former on permanent “ignore”.
  • Ryan Cleary and the crew at the Independent who fell from grace and then garnered gobs of provincial advertising cash only after they slacked off their government reporting.  [Why exactly did Ivan Morgan stop writing about Danny? – ed.]
  • Max Ruelokke, head of the province’s offshore regulatory board whose only “crime” was to win two merit based competitions against Williams’ preferred candidate.
  • The judge in Ruelokke v. the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador who weighed the evidence and found in favour of Max Ruelokke getting the job, calling government’s actions “callous” as he did so.
  • Madam Justice Margaret Cameron, who commented negatively on the curious amnesia afflicting some of the witnesses at an inquiry into one of the province’s most serious health scandals.
  • Joyce Hancock, formerly head of the province’s status of women council, who expressed concern over a series of issues surrounding women in the senior public service.
  • NASA, for launching a Titan 4B booster as they have done for decades.  [Okay that one wasn’t a direct attack but it was a totally loopy, beyond-all-reason, panic-attacky tirade of silly proportions.]

And that’s just the bigger ones that have actually made into some of the local media.  There are at least two more your humble e-scribbler can relate involving reporters.  There are more to come, undoubtedly as people shrug off the fear.

Williams complaints the day after the Randy meltdown certainly followed in the same vein.  As with the clash with Simms over health care, Williams is evidently highly frustrated at news stories which convey something other than the manufactured image from his publicity machine and the scripted comments of his open line callers and online anonymous army. 

Voicing that frustration won’t make the stories go away.  If anything, the resurgent CBC Here and Now, for example, the source of Williams’ annoyance over health care will just keep piling on the accurate stories of problems here and there in the administration. 

This is the normal course of things for any government and any politician.  This is what news organizations do.  To complain about it is to complain about dogs barking. 

Williams has been lucky thus far to have had a relatively free ride and precious little serious criticism until recently.  Still, he has liked to complain from the start about the media and public attention.  He complained bitterly about attention paid to the lengthy process of getting his private business affairs into a blind trust.  Anyone recall the silliness about his being reduced to living on an allowance from the trustees?  

The better part of a decade after he got into politics, the guy who says he has a thick skin, actually demonstrates time and again that he doesn’t.  He needs to get over it and himself.  Williams garnered more, negative media attention for himself over the racket with Randy than he any positive coverage with what should have been a triumphant day of news about another offshore deal.

before leaving this whole issue of childishness, thin skins, and all the rest,  we shouldn’t forget another Premier of a decade or so ago who was fond of expressing his displeasure with people who dared contradict him. 

One story involved a very prominent local business leader and a disagreement over hydro development or some such.  The comments came in a very public way at Marble Mountain.  Another involved a local editor and accusations that the editor’s insufficient endowment were the driving force behind his writing.  As the story goes, the line was something like the only reason you are taking me on is because you have a small dick.

The impact of that sort of childish behaviour wasn’t readily apparent since Newfoundland and Labrador is a small community used to suppressing open confrontation.  Still, the opinions do get expressed. 

Nasty - and false - rumours circulate, whispered from one to another with glee.  Even those stories relayed above  may have been embellished, with time, as they made it to your humble e-scribbler.  At a certain point, their veracity is not as important as the fact they get circulated with great vigour in the community, not in the news media, but over the dinner table and on the links.

The mighty will be humbled if they go too far.

And humbled that one was on the day he left federal politics.  There were no soft questions at all and no one was concerned about his legacy after a long career in public service.  Every reporter in the hastily called news conference took turns to slam Brian Tobin with every hard question they had about his departure.  They’d been saving stuff up, as it seemed, and on that day, they used it.

Voters used the frustration they’d saved up as well, in a couple of districts, in a by-election not long after.  They humbled the people from the same party who carried on after the Big Guy had left the scene.  The sins of the Father, as it were.

People made a change and they changed for a bunch of reasons, not the least of which was a desire to get right of the behaviour of the crowd that they had before.

How quickly some people forget.

-srbp-

Obscuring the next frontier

Offshore gas development is the next frontier, according to what natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale told delegates to the NOIA conference this week.

The Labrador land sale last year garnered some strong interest, as it turned out and that was, at the time rightly heralded as a strong indication natural gas could be the next major offshore play.

One of the companies that has moved in is Repsol:

Repsol is also a majority partner in the Canaport liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Saint John, N.B., and the plant will be operational in a matter of days.

"We're looking for supply for that facility," said [Repisol vice-president Denis]Marcoux.

If gas is the next frontier, there are two large obstacles that have to be overcome.  Neither is the technical issue of how to exploit the gas.

One huge problem is the lack of a natural gas royalty regime.  The provincial government started looking at one in the late 1990s.  The current administration inherited their work, produced a draft version that wound up in the energy plan in 2007 and that’s the last it’s been heard of.

Word is the operators had problems with it, but that’s pretty normal for these sorts of things.

In the meantime, given that government can apparently only handle one major issue at a time, odds are good the thing has been languishing, waiting for first Hebron and then Hibernia South to get finished.

That’s despite the Premier’s assurance last year both would be done by the end of 2008.  As it turned out, Hibernia South took another year just to get to MOU and then will take the better part of another year still to get the formal agreements ready.

Your serial government continues to function just at it has since the beginning.

No royalty regime means that even if a company was interested in developing an existing find, they have no way of knowing what the costs are. That level of uncertainty makes companies with the cash to invest leery of starting something.

That’s something that can’t be easily dismissed. Having a royalty regime made it possible for the companies to start thinking hard about Hebron a decade before the deal was done and that was at a time when oil prices weren’t forecast to 50 bucks a barrel.

Heck, some companies haven’t been willing to commit to drilling on gas prospects because they simply can’t forecast the development costs even in a preliminary fashion.  They may bang some seismic in the meantime but no one is poking exploration holes and without those holes, nothing is really moving anywhere.

The other obstacle is the provincial government’s attitude. 

Under Williams Mod 1, there could be no development without tons of add-ons. He said in 2005 that he didn’t want to see gas shipped down the coast in some “God-damn boat.

That’s pretty much what Repsol has in mind and that would definitely bring their LNG tankers up on the rocks that were sticking pretty high out of the water in 2005.

Those rocks might still be sticking out of the water or the tide might have risen.  Right now, the policy fog is obscuring natural gas as the next frontier offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

-srbp-

17 June 2009

Hibernia Southern Extension MOU Assessment, Part II: Equity and industrial benefits

[Part I  Royalty]

Equity

According to the backgrounder released on Tuesday, the provincial government’s oil company will acquire a 10% interest in only that portion of the extension to be developed through tie-backs. 

That has been described as covering 170 million barrels, however, as with Hebron that figure may become smaller in the final agreement.

The acquisition price is $30 million however the backgrounder provided no estimates the development costs, operating costs or other costs associated with the project.

According to some sources, part of the delay in reaching the memorandum of understanding came from re-unitizing the existing licenses, especially EL 1093.  There are seven interest-holders in that license with four of them having less than 10%.

As with Hebron, details of the acquisition agreement will not be made public.  As with Hebron, information crucial to a thorough assessment of the acquisition and the provincial government’s share will remain hidden from public scrutiny.

Industrial and local benefits

Aside from existing benefits arrangements under the Hibernia development plan and offshore regulatory board regulations, no new or enhanced local benefits are contained in the backgrounder.

The project will be developed using a combination of slant drilling from the existing Hibernia platform (50 million barrels) and sub-sea tie-backs to the platform.  This was not a part of the 2006 application. 

However, planned expansion of the Hibernia GBS appears to have been shelved. This significantly reduces the potential amount of local work available.  The project is smaller than what was suggested last June when the Premier indicated a Hibernia South deal would be in place by the end of 2008. 

"We fully expect Hibernia South to be concluded by the end of this calendar year," Williams told more than 700 people attending the annual offshore conference hosted by the Newfoundland and Labrador Oil and Gas Industries Association (NOIA).

As it turned out, the MOU was signed in mid 2009 and final agreements are not expected until early 2010. That would be three years after the provincial government vetoed the development and two years after the oil companies originally planned to start production.

Local companies already have demonstrated expertise in supply and in fabrication of sub-sea components.  Thus, local companies should be able to secure fabrication and related work on the project.

This is particular interesting since two of the four reasons given for vetoing the development plan in 2007 related to local benefits:

  • The province needs more information on what options exist for other modes of development to extract the oil from Hibernia South. This may have implications for overall benefits.
  • The lack of a Benefits Plan Amendment. This is a departure from the normal process and the CNLOPB did not require it in the "interest of expediency."

Through the MOU, the provincial government also accepts the offshore board’s position in the voted application with respect to local benefits (affirmative action, research and development and education and training). 

This is significant since these aspects of local benefits were cited as an area of concern for the provincial government  with the board’s approval of the plan.  In a subsequent exchange of correspondence energy minister Kathy Dunderdale accused the offshore board of failing in its responsibilities for local benefits yet it appears the government has ultimately accepted what the companies initially proposed and board approved. 

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16 June 2009

Hibernia Southern Extension MOU Assessment, Part I: Royalty - some potential added cash plus a cap

While Danny William’s radio tirade/meltdown is rapidly eclipsing his own good news announcement nationally, there is interest in assessing the details of the Hibernia South Extension memorandum of understanding based on the official news release and news reports on the day of the announcement.

Caveats

As with Hebron, the final agreement may yield some details which were not readily apparent when the MOU was announced.   As well, and as with Hebron, key portions of the deal are likely to be hidden from public view.   With that said, we still have enough information to make some observations about the proposed development deal.  In this first post, we will look at the royalty regime.

General

Overall, this agreement represents a transformation from Williams Mod 1 to Williams Mod 2 in the government’s approach to offshore oil development.

Williams Mod 1 (pre-2o06) was essentially a variation pre-1984 provincial government thinking and emphasised:

  • increasing local benefits especially through forced development of refining and downstream production;
  • some additional revenue from federal transfers, and
  • an undefined “equity” interest which is essentially analogous to the old petroleum corporation.

Williams Mod 2 (post- 2006) places the greatest emphasis on additional government revenue through the most obvious source:  enhanced royalties. This is especially clear in the Simms encounter where the Premier states:

The reason we’re caught up in the oil, it’s not the oil, it’s the black gold that’s out there, it’s not the petroleum, it’s not the oil and gas, it’s the revenue that it brings to us, so that we can deal with problems in the fishery, so that we can take care of the Abitibi workers, so that we can build new hospitals and new long terms care facilities, so that we can build new schools, so that we can lead the country in poverty reduction, and it goes on and on and on. Surely you – presumably – run a municipality. You must know the importance of revenue, and where that revenue comes from – if it comes from business, whatever form of business it is, or if it comes from residential real estate, it goes into your coffers now so you can do all the wonderful things that need to be done. [Emphasis added]

Government-induced infrastructure has been effectively abandoned as evident in both Hebron and Hibernia South and the equity portion has also been capped artificially at 10%.  In Hibernia South, the second GBS or other production facility has been discarded for the most economical production method (slant drilling from the original GBS and tie-backs to the original GBS).

This effectively adopts the philosophy that guided resource development after 1985 and is best seen in the 1990 Hibernia agreement and in the subsequent developments at White Rose and Terra Nova.

As much as Danny Williams may like to complain about those who offer alternative views to his own, this basic approach has been noted before – including in this corner – as an alternative to Williams Mod 1. 

The easiest, most efficient means of enhancing government revenue is through adjustments to the royalty regime.   Revenue is needed to meet the demands for program spending and infrastructure development today. Regular readers of Bond Papers will recognise the refrain.

Hibernia Southern Extension Royalty Regime

The base for the three-part royalty is the existing Hibernia royalty regime as concluded in 1990 and modified in 2000

This sets the rate after simple payout (achieved a few months early) at 30% Tier 1 royalty with a further 12.5% Tier 2 royalty triggered by profitability.

This is the royalty rate – 42.5% -  that produces the bulk of the cash.

The royalty regime for the southern extension is cut into three parts.  There is no explanation as to why the rate is structured this way. The backgrounder provided with the news release does not explain the structure clearly.

Part I:    For the 50 million barrels or so that will be drilled directly from the Hibernia gravity base structure, there is the 42.5%  that already exists in the Hibernia royalty regime established in 1990 and modified in 2000.

There is no price trigger for this since the original royalty regime did not tie provincial government revenues to oil prices directly.

Part II:  For the portion of the project that is under the original production License 1001 (PL 1001), the basis is the original Hibernia royalty regime (maximum 42.5%, not tied to price).

In addition there is a further 7.5% royalty when prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are above US$50.  Above WTI at US$70 there is an additional 5%. 

There is a cap on the royalty however: 

Should supplementary royalty payout be achieved under the terms of the original Hibernia contract be achieved, the top rate will be 50 per cent.

It would appear that once the project has triggered the Tier 1 and Tier 2 royalties (42.5%),  only an additional 7.5% is available beyond that irrespective of price. 

Part III:   There is a similar 50% cap in the new areas, i.e. the ones covered by PL 1005 and Exploration License 1093 (EL 1093).  The cap is achieved by reducing the incremental royalty tied to price (WTI at US$50) from 7.5% to 2.5%.

Observations

Overall, this represents a complex arrangement that modifies the existing royalty regime slightly. The complexity may be due in part to the highly diversified interests in the three licenses, especially EL1093.

In many pricing scenarios, then, the maximum available royalty from what is described here as Part II of the regime  would appear to be the same as under the existing Hibernia regime, i.e. 42.5%.

On the face of it, the Part II and Part III royalty structures offer an identical outcome.  Additional information would be needed to explain how the structure works and why it is in place.

The provincial government revenue figure offered in the announcement  - $10 billion – is apparently derived almost entirely by applying the existing Hibernia Royalty Regime to an environment in which oil prices are considerably above the average price that existing during the initial phase of the project.

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Money Update:  Premier Danny Williams told CBC’s David Cochrane today that the estimate of $10 billion of provincial revenue from Hibernia South is based on an estimated average oil price of $83 over the next decade.

There is something suspicious about the government calculation though since Williams claimed on Tuesday that five times as much oil left in Hibernia as in Hibernia South would net the province only slightly less cash than Hibernia proper even though both projects use essentially the same royalty regime:

We expect a further $13 billion from the remaining main field production and this extension adds an estimated $10 billion more in revenue for the province…

Randy Simms: the wind beneath Danny’s wings

When Danny Williams rails against relentless negativity, he knows of what he speaks.

The guy who built the early part of his career tearing down anything that came before him now finds it a wee bit uncomfortable when someone dares to suggest there could be other things to gain the Premier’s attention besides oil.

The audio from the Premier’s five minute tantrum this morning is rapidly spreading to every available media out there.

People are shaking their heads and many are laughing.

They shouldn’t.

It isn’t funny when a guy who should be proud of his accomplishments instead launches into a childish tirade on international radio.

It wasn’t funny at all considering that Simms is above all else a decent and fair journalist. His comments earlier weren’t out of line and Williams’ tirade is built entirely out of his own invention not anything Simms said.

For those who missed it, here’s the audio along with some stills to give you something to look at.

Meeker Nails it Update:  the whole thing transcribed.

When you’re done, go check out an eerily similar rant from Joe Smallwood aimed at a much younger Randy Simms.

Smallwood rant mp3

 

 

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You couldn’t make this crap update:  Best line uttered in the spittle-fest is the reference to “hard-core” infrastructure.

Apparently government spending is now like pornography.  it comes in hard-core and soft-core versions.

What’s the difference, you ask?

Well, in soft-core the building is simulated by actors and there is no actual construction.

Wonder what that makes the stimulus package where almost half the projects started some time ago and some have been the subject of multiple announcements?

Hibernia South memorandum of understanding

There’s a non-binding memorandum of understanding to develop new areas of the Hibernia field with a final agreement expected in early 2010. 

Hibernia South includes 220 million barrels of recoverable oil.  There is an estimated 1.24 billion barrels of proven and probable recoverable oil reserves in the Hibernia project, including the Hibernia South area, and as much as 1.9 billion barrels covering proven, probable and possible reserves.

Proven reserves are 782 million barrels of which 605 million barrels have been produced up to April 30, 2009.

That means there is 640 million barrels of proven and probable reserves to exploit and as much as 1.295 million barrels including possible reserves.

The existing Hibernia project has also hit simple payout, raising provincial royalties under the Hibernia royalty regime to 30%.  That will deliver additional cash to the provincial treasury in the current fiscal year that wasn’t previously accounted for.

The MOU also contains a settlement of a dispute on calculation of transportation costs for the Hibernia project. The understanding adopts the provincial government interpretation retroactive to first oil in 1997. 

According to the news release, this understanding is responsible for the attainment of simple payout.  However, in 2007,  estimates existed that the project would achieve payout in 2009 or 2010 based on production levels and anticipated oil prices at the time unconnected to either project expansion or the transportation cost interpretation dispute.

In the wake of failed talks on the Hebron project in 2006, the Williams administration vetoed a development application for a portion of Hibernia South. That redevelopment plan was resubmitted in 2008, as anticipated by the Canada Hibernia Holding Corporation in 2007.

There were some indications the provincial government planned to seek development of Hibernia South as a new project with a new production platform.  The MOU announced on Tuesday calls for the production methods originally proposed by the operators using the existing Hibernia platform.

-srbp-

More to follow on MOU announcement including a review of the royalty regime.

15 June 2009

Freedom from information: lack of briefing notes for minister called “bizarre” by senior government official

An unnamed senior public sector manager has termed a move by government to eliminate briefing notes for ministers “bizarre”.

The official is quoted in a post by Telegram blogger Geoff Meeker.  The unidentified official spoke only on condition of anonymity.

“I don't think it's possible to keep up to speed without a briefing book,” said the person, who has worked at some of the highest levels of the public service.

“It will make it very difficult to understand, in retrospect, why certain decisions were made - very dangerous for the staff who must execute them and very problematic if one needs to retrace and do a course-correction on something that's gone off the rails. Without briefing books, corporate memory is very much reduced and future government decisions rendered more difficult.”

The comment came after another Telegram story (not online) in which Joan Burke, government house leader and minister of a newly created child, youth and family services department, said that she had received no briefing notes when taking over her new portfolio. Burke told the Telegram’s Rob Antle that

“I didn’t want to be handed a binder with 500 to 1,000 sheets of paper to try to determine what’s important and what’s not, and what’s current and what I need on my radar.”

As Meeker points out, Burke’s attitude may have little to do with what she described as her desire to get down to work.

Burke was embroiled in a controversy last year over the hiring of a new president for Memorial University.  Details of the minister’s involvement became embarrassing when the Liberal opposition office obtained copies of government records through the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act and provided them to local media.

The documents including e-mails and briefing notes that included questions for Burke to use during her screening interviews with the two finalists selected by the university’s hiring process.  Burke rejected both candidates.

Briefing notes have also proved embarrassing for other cabinet ministers.

A note prepared for Burke’s successor in November 2008 on financial implications of “autonomy” for Grenfell College from Memorial University, another controversial policy from Burke’s tenure in education, was virtually completed deleted before being released under the province’s open records laws.  While promised two years ago, there is still no sign of the enabling legislation.

During the Cameron inquiry into the hormone receptor scandal, health minister Ross Wiseman stated under oath that he had not read briefing notes on the issue when he took over the portfolio.  As CBC reported,

… Wiseman said he did not have the opportunity to read briefing notes about the cancer testing after he was sworn in as health minister, because he was busy tackling other pressing issues and preparing for the annual budget.

Opposition politicians have also claimed that ministers apparently no longer receive briefing notes to use in preparation for the House of Assembly.

Meeker’s public sector manager also described some of the concerns about the new policy which would see the elimination of any paper trail of documents and backgrounders for ministers. 

“Without briefing documents, the public can never really know what grounds decisions were made on - cutting the foundation out from under transparency and accountability, not to mention history - how will future generations understand the story of this government and this time without primary research sources?

“This puts a great burden on senior and mid-level public officials to keep good records in their own briefing books and black books. These would be accessible under ATIPP, but that leaves the paper trail with the officials, not the Minister. And if they don't keep good records, well - we all heard during the Cameron inquiry how difficult it is for these busy, busy people [cabinet ministers and political staff] to recall details from 6 or 12 months ago.”

That last point is particularly cogent:  at one point during the inquiry, an exasperated commissioner Justice Margaret Cameron commented that many of the witnesses seemed to have difficulty recalling anything at all. 

The premier's chief of staff, Brian Crawley, was sent an e-mail in July, 2005 that warned of a major story about to break involving breast cancer testing mistakes.

But Crawley testified he can't remember getting the e-mail or even talking to anyone in the premier's office — including the premier — about it.

"I really don't remember anything about those early days at all," he said.

Judge Margaret Cameron asked Crawley whether he remembered any of the events of July and he responded, "No."

"You don't remember seeing anything about this until the story broke in the Independent [Newfoundland & Labrador Independent newspaper] and you don't even really remember reading the Independent story," she said.

Crawley was not alone and that exchange prompted an angry premier Danny Williams to criticise Cameron over the remark, as cbc.ca/nl reported:

When Crawley answered one question about what he would have done in a situation, Cameron replied, "Well, I'm getting a lot of that, 'This is what I would've done,' but nobody ever remembers seemingly having done much."

On Friday, Williams fired back.

"I have to say I was disappointed. I was disappointed as I watched Madame Justice Cameron show disdain for a professional witness who was before her, giving testimony, honestly, forthright, under oath, to the best of his or her ability," Williams told reporters.

Meeker’s post and the comments by the unnamed official echo concerns identified in Donald Savoie’s recent book on the erosion of accountability at White hall and in Ottawa.

In Court government: the collapse of accountability in Canada and the United Kingdom, Savoie documents a similar practice of eliminating briefing notes and other official written documents in order to avoid the access to information laws.

In addition to the move to eliminate a paper trail, Savoie also notes concerns among politicians with whistleblower legislation as part of a larger trend away from government openness and internal and external accountability.

Savoie also points to the appearance of unofficial practices within the administration of government that are also designed to avoid disclosure under access to information laws.  For example, one study cited by Savoie found that requests from politicians and the media took longer to process than those from others even though there did not appear to be any particular difference in one request from another.   

Similar efforts by officials to skirt open records laws have already been noted in Newfoundland and Labrador.

For example, officials have invented a concept called non-responsive records to refer to documents which are apparently covered by an access request but which are not  released. One of the Burke e-mails on Memorial University, for example, includes a deletion marked “non-responsive” rather than use the official requirement to cite a specific section of the access law under which a deletion is made.

Perhaps the most notorious example was a claim that records did not exist even though the Premier and other officials acknowledged that they did.

In another case, access to documents was denied on the grounds that the review was ongoing.  The request had not been for a final report but for documents relating to the study and an accounting of its costs.

Officials have also been able to avoid disclosure based on questionable claims about the scope of the request.

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RBC on NL economy: strong headwinds

RBC Economics has revised downward its 2009 forecast for the Newfoundland and Labrador with the economy expected to shrink by 3.5%

gdp 2009 That’s the largest forecast drop in GDP in the country and compares to the 1.9% shrinkage forecast in March 2009.

RBC also forecasts the province will have one of the  top economies in the country in 2010.

However, if you look at the chart, virtually all provinces will experience growth of nearly 3.0% in 2010 as the effects of all that government stimulus spending takes hold.

stim thing GDP That wouldn’t be entirely surprising since Newfoundland and Labrador is also spending among the largest amounts in the country on stimulus as a percentage of gross domestic product.

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More to follow update:

From another RBC Economics report released on June 5:

  • Employment in the province is expected to be down by almost 7%.  that's the biggest drop of any province.
  • While our housing prices and starts are tops in the country, the resale price is expected to drop about 15%.  That's right in the middle of the pile. 
  • Manufacturing sales are expected to be down about 26%.  That's the biggest drop in the country.
  • Retail sales are forecast to be up by the highest amount in the country.  Most places are dropping.
RBC expects 2010 to be relatively good again based on increases in mineral production, the expanded White Rose project and government infrastructure spending. Here's how they view the current situation:

On the resources side, softer demand and the resulting nose-dive in the prices
for commodities following last summer’s peaks have negatively affected energy
and metals production in the province. Iron ore mining operations cut output by
nearly 19% in the first quarter compared to a year ago and rapidly rising stocks
would indicate that they will further slash it in the near term. Market-related
downtime is also affecting nickel production. In the case of crude oil, rapid
maturation of the province’s existing offshore oil fields will keep output on an
accelerated downward track until late this year or early next when the White
Rose project expansion enters into operation. Crude oil production in Newfoundland
& Labrador fell by more than 4% year-over-year during the first
quarter.
There are two things that should be noted.

First of all, next year's return to growth in GDP is driven by government spending.  While it's great that government had the cash to throw into a stimulus package, the amount of cash on hand is finite and will likely be consumed over the next two years. 

If the economy doesn't rebound as expected, then 2011 and beyond may be different especially since the provincial government won't have the ready piles of cash to toss around.

At the same time, demand for increases in other sectors will start biting into the government treasury.  That twin challenge - increased demand and decreased resources to meet the demand - could become even more pronounced if the drop in oil production that will take place is coupled with soft energy markets and lower than forecast resource prices.

Second of all, and following out of the prospects of recovery, it must be borne in mind that the provincial economy is tied directly and indirectly to the American one. The prospects for a major turn around locally are very much tied to recovery south of the borderConcerns about that prospect continue. RBC is forecasting a turnaround in the US economy in 2010.

JSS project may be scrapped

National Defence is looking at all the options for the troubled Joint Support Ship Contract including scrapping the whole thing, according to the Ottawa Citizen.

There’s also a possibility the project will be restarted from scratch with a new project definition.

That would take seven years to get the new ship to the navy.

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13 June 2009

The drunk driving sentence that never was

Local media outlets reported on Friday that a man had been sentenced in Grand bank to two years in jail and the loss of his driving license for 99 years.

cbc.ca/nl carried it and the thing has garnered a huge number of comments. Ditto the Telegram although there are only 14 comments there. It made the voice of the cabinet minister as well.

Courtesy of Canadian Press the story went national and turned up in at least one newspaper, the Edmonton Sun.

The thing is online as well a liveleak.com and a local Edmonton bulletin board/forum.

Wonderful story.

Except for one small problem:  it isn’t entirely accurate.

Your humble e-scribbler thought the story sounded suspicious since the sentence of 99 years sounded a bit American.

An inquiry turned up the full details and another inquiry turned up the news release issued by the Burin district office of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police that started the thing.

Here’s the release:

Impaired driver receives 2 year prison sentence and prohibited from driving for 99 years

On Thursday, June 11th, 2009 a 47 year old Burin man received a two year prison sentence and is prohibited from driving for 99 years as a result of an incident that was investigated by the Burin Peninsula District RCMP in the community of Burin on Wednesday, June 10th, 2009.

-34-

For further information please contact the undersigned, …

Okay, for starters, the release should have ended with –30-, if anything, not –34- but that’s neither here nor there for our purposes.

News media can’t be faulted for taking what they were given by an official source and using it.

So here’s the fuller and more accurate story.

The RCMP arrested the fellow on Wednesday after receiving a call about an impaired driver.  They managed to nab him fairly quickly  - after a brief chase - and he appeared in court on Thursday.

As it turned out he had five prior convictions for impaired driving and in the most recent one had been sentenced in Nova Scotia provincial court in Cape Breton to a 10 year suspension of his driving privileges.  He was charged in Grand Bank with impaired driving, refusing the breathalyser and driving while prohibited.

In the jigs and the reels of it all, the Crown and defence counsels worked out a plea agreement by which the fellow received two years in jail and a lifetime prohibition from driving. The whole thing – from offence to arrest to conviction  - took less than 24 hours. That, plus the back story are way better than what actually hit the news, at least it’s way better in the opinion of your humble e-scribbler.

So where’d the “99” thing come from?

Certainly not from anyone in the court room, as it turned out.

The form used by the court staff to record this type of sentence gives space for two digits.  A five year suspension would be entered as “05” and a 10 year suspension would be “10” and so on.  Since there is no way numerically to figure out how long a life time suspension actually is, the court system codes a lifetime suspension as “99”, that being the largest two digit number there is and one that wouldn’t be confused with anything else. 99 is the max under the coding system and lifetime is the max under the legal system.

Pretty simple.

But someone reading the court form only and who  - as it turns out – was not familiar with the coding system dutifully bashed out a short news release that included the sentence as being two years in jail plus a 99 year suspended license. 

He also apparently didn’t have time to get the more complete story.  That said, the story as presented is rightfully garnering praise for the police and the court from the people making comments on the CBC and Telegram stories.

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Global oil round-up

Some randomly selected articles from around the world on the current state of the oil industry.

1.  Omani oil revenues in the first four months of 2009 are down about 50% from the same time last year, according to Reuters.

2.  Expect a downward oil price correction shortly, according analysts quoted in the Edmonton Journal.   They put the drop to the low 60s or high 50s a barrel.  [Hint;  they’re conservative;  think lower still]  Among the factors cited:  weak demand, new production coming on stream and tons of oil currently in storage onshore and offshore that doesn’t have a market yet.

3.  Of course,the peak oil cultists are still predicting the opposite so they see any lowering as just a temporary calm before the Apocalypse hits.

4.  Scan to the bottom of this article on a recent meeting of  PetroCaribe and you’ll see reference to Cuban oil potential:

In the case of Cuba, Venezuela's financial and energy support is critical to supporting the Castro regime. Energy dependence has long been Cuba's Achilles' heel.

Havana used to depend on the east bloc for cut-rate oil, and plunged into economic chaos and blackouts when it was cut off after 1989. Now it depends on crude from ally Venezuela.

Cuba is negotiating oil exploration and production deals with Russia, China and Angola, with Moscow shaping up as the partner that could make the communist island energy self-sufficient, if its untapped offshore reserves pan out.

If it can achieve energy independence, Cuba may in the blink of an eye turn from a cash-strapped developing nation into a flush oil exporter, possibly projecting its current regime years into the future.

Cuban authorities in October announced that the Caribbean nation's crude reserves were more than double what had been thought, and now were estimated to be about 20 billion barrels.

5. OPEC oil production rose slightly in May, up again from a slight rise in April. Compliance with the OPEC production quota dropped again in May with Venezuela, Iran and Angola exceeding their quotas.  Go back to the article on PetroCaribe and you’ll see Venezuela is in the middle of a little local power play involving oil.  Venezuela runs an oil rent-to-own scheme in which countries in the region can buy Venezuelan crude on credit. 

6.  Still, OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast for 2009, which only makes sense in the current real market.

7.  While there may be some dispute as to whether Cuban oil potential is 20 billion barrels or five billion barrels, there’s no doubt interest is growing in developing the Caribbean nation’s offshore resources.

Either way, Cuba’s oil is attracting the attention of oil companies from around the globe. At the moment, Spain’s Repsol, Brazil’s Petrobras, and Norway’s StatoilHydro are overseeing exploratory drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Venezuela also have signed deals with Cuba.

Maybe Cuban oil potential is behind signs of a thaw in American-Cuban relations.

8.  Closer to home, there’s the NOIA oil and gas conference next week and with it, the annual speculation that Premier Danny Williams might say something earth-shattering despite the fact that making an announcement there would  involve sharing the spotlight with NOIA.

He hasn’t done anything like it before but people still like to stoke the hype.  Last year CBC got suckered into the whole thing in a big way;  this year it’s the Telly’s turn on a smaller scale and focusing on Hibernia South.

Now if the Hebron thing is anything to go by, what comes out the end could be a whole lot less than the hype suggested and some of the details have some really disturbing implications.  Of course, hype is more fun than details.

9.  Speaking of the NOIA conference, the theme this year focuses on the potential for the Arctic.

There’s the global perspective:

SESSION 2: TECHNOLOGIES FOR ARCTIC ENVIRONMENTS 2:30 p.m.

Russia’s Shtokman Project: an Update
Sergey Smityushenko, First Deputy Governor of Murmansk Oblast, Russia

Exploration and Production Options for the Alaskan Offshore
Mike Paulin, President, IMV Projects Atlantic

Pushing the Envelopment: R&D Advances for Arctic Oil and Gas Development
Jim Bruce, Deputy Director Ice Engineering, C-CORE

Canadian Frontiers Operating in Harsh Environments
Peter Haverson, General Manager, Global Drilling, International and Offshore, Petro-Canada

And the local one:

SESSION 4: FARTHER, DEEPER, COLDER 2:30 p.m.

Chevron's Growth Strategy for Atlantic Canada
Mark MacLeod, Atlantic Canada Manager, Chevron Canada Limited

Greenland - A Steppingstone to Arctic Exploration
Gregors Dam, Chief Geologist, Dong Energy

Playing to our Strengths
Mark Shrimpton, Principal and Practice Director, Socio-Economic Services, Jacques Whitford Stantec

Defining the Outer Limits of Canada's Continental Shelf in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Under the Law of the Sea
Jacob Verhoef, Director, UNCLOS Program, Natural Resources Canada

That last session is one to watch since the issue of  oil development at and beyond the edge of the continental shelf has implications for any developments in the Orphan Basin offshore Newfoundland.

And for those who are missing their fix of the government’s favourite economist, don’t worry.  NOIA is doing it’s bit to keep on good terms with government. 

Not only is there a reception at The Rooms, but Wade Locke is the lead speaker in the last session.  He’ll be talking up “Offshore Oil & Gas, the Economic Crisis & the Local Economy”.

If he sticks to his more recent lines, this should be fun.  Prediction:  He won’t be hyping non-existent aluminum smelter projects just as the demand for aluminum collapsed.   He might talk about the current economic situation but he might have to be more cautious about undermining the provincial government’s “we live in a bubble, all is well” talking point since the last time Locke’s comments were reported accurately, he got upset.

Right after Wade will be the provincial energy corporation’s Jim Keating who will, in all likelihood, be talking about the Lower Churchill.

Of course, that’s pretty much all there has been about the project:

  • Project sanction was supposed to take place in 2009.  Then that got slid back by a mere six months. Now we don’t hear much talk of LC start dates at all.
  • The land claims agreement with the Innu Nation – crucial to any development – seems to be deader than a doornail despite the initial hype about it.
  • We do hear talk of slinging power lines through a UNESCO World Heritage site, something once described as the “most serious threat” to the park.
  • There have also been contradictory statements about the future of the Holyrood generating plant.

And that’s just some of the stuff that hasn’t really been covered in any great detail in local media on the most talked about paper project in history.

Even if the Premier doesn’t lead off with anything Earth-shattering, there’s a prospect Jim and Wade can finish the NOIA conference with something really newsworthy.

 

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The lesson from Nova Scotia

In Newfoundland and Labrador these past few days some local adherents of the Orange Creed – that’s New Democrats, not Protestants or Dutch – have been buoyed by the success of their Nova Scotia brothers and sisters.

Others have been talking about the prospect of local New Democrats doing the same thing here that Darrell Dexter and his party did in persuading Nova Scotians to take a chance on voting NDP.

Therein lies the first lesson local New Democrats should learn:  Darrell and the crew didn’t ask Nova Scotians to “take a chance” on anything.  They presented a professional, credible alternative to the other two parties. 

There was no chance involved.

There was a choice.

A few years ago, the Nova Scotian Dippers were like other labourites.  Being a New Democrat was to be part of a social cause or a social group, not a bunch who seriously thought of winning an election.  That’s not unusual. Other labour parties have gone through the same thing.  The Labour Party in Britain once cherished ideological purity over electoral success.  So too did New Democratic parties across Canada.

But, like those other labourites elsewhere,  the Nova Scotian New Democrats decided it was better to be in office than standing impotent on the sidelines with their ideological purity intact.

That’s the second lesson the local New Democrats need to learn:  there is no substitute for power.  You can have all the lovely ideas you want but if you don’t win the election it’s just as well to order another round at the Ship and explain your theory to the bottom of a pint of Guinness.

You get to win by organizing.  Find volunteers.  Get people who know how to organize. Raise money and put it in the bank.  Find candidates.  Reach out and bring new people and new ideas into the fold.

Inevitably, there will be a crowd who will get pissed at the loss of ideological purity, but that’s the price of shedding the sack-cloth and the stench of burning martyr and donning the mantle of government.

Equally inevitably, for every old bolshevik who abandons ship for the Greens, there’ll be two or more new people who either weren’t in politics before or who defect from another team.

The two major parties don’t get elected because people vote the way their parents and grandparents did.  That’s a convenient excuse dreamed up by someone who just can’t face facts. 

The two major parties get elected because they hold onto a cadre of supporters and then add on a whole bunch of people who change their votes from time to time. The other two major parties appeal to voters with the platforms and promises by finding out what voters are looking for and then offering it to them.  Put another way, they get elected by building coalitions of people who have similar views or who can find enough reasons to vote for one team over another. 

That’s basically what politics is about:  bringing people together and that should be what New Democrats do naturally.

But they don’t.  Instead, they try to not just distinguish themselves but drive a wedge between themselves and voters.  New Democrats of the old school make it seem like it is a sign of moral weakness to have voted for the other two parties at some point.  Before one can vote New Democrat one must first  admit the sins of ones voting past.

That’s the essence of that common NDP refrain that the other two parties are all alike.  Predictably, it turns voters off.

Think about that for a second and then look at two New Democrat leaders.

Think about Jack Layton, he of the “they are all alike” school.

And then think about Darrell Dexter.

If you can perceive the differences, and you are a New Democrat, then you are well on your way to learning the Lesson from Nova Scotia. You are well on your way to bringing a genuinely competitive alternative to voters.

-srbp-

12 June 2009

What a difference reality makes

When the provincial government announced its $800 million capital works “stimulus” package back in February, they claimed it would create 5,400 “person years” of employment.  Well, they claimed lots of things but let’s just focus on the work claim.

Now for those who don’t know, a “person year” is basically the same as one person working for a year.  Two people working for six months each is one “person year”.

Here are the quotes from the news release:

  • It is anticipated the investment plan will create or sustain approximately 5,400 person years of employment this year.
  • “…Approximately 5,400 person years throughout the province should go a long way in accomplishing just that…”  [That’s a quote from Hisself]

Note here that neither of them was anywhere near the front end of the release.  The Danny Williams quote is actually almost at the bitter end of not only his release but also the gigantic paragraph’s worth of words purportedly uttered by his prime ministerial lips.

That was February.

Fast forward to June.

Statistics Canada released figures showing that between May 2008 and May 2009, about 12,000 people found themselves sans paycheque in the youngest, coolest, hippest province in Canada. 

With the fishery shut down in many parts of the province upwards of another 10,000 people are in jeopardy of not having much – if any income – this year.

And then less than a week later – and totally by coincidence, of course – the provincial government issues an “update” on its fiscal plan.

Suddenly, the plan contains twice as much cash as announced back in February  and lo, and behold the claim of job creation has mushroomed.

Right there, in the very first sentence, the one where supposedly the most important information goes, there is this:

Provincial infrastructure projects totalling $1.6 billion will be tendered this fiscal year, creating an estimated 15,000 jobs (some seasonal) and providing significant economic stimulus to the economy of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Double the money and triple the job creation.

And there’s no more talk of this wussie thing, the “person year”.   Now there’s a word everyone understands:  “jobs”.

15,000 of them, we are told, right there in the very beginning of the news release so no one will miss it;  not buried a raft of  paragraphs down from the top – like say when workers comp has a potential identity theft problem – but right there in front, large as life. 

First line. 

The “lede” they call it in news circles.

With only the little bracketed aside that “some” will be seasonal.

The rest of this news release is also full of numbers.  Lots of them.  Bag fulls in fact.  So many numbers that the release must have been slow going down the wires what with all the added weight, especially right there at the front end.

But that job number is curious because it is three times the original estimate.

That job number is curious because it is right there at the front and called jobs and it is curious because it comes only six days after the people who give accurate numbers tell us that the jobs losses in the province are bad.

How bad?

recent

Here is a chart, shamelessly swiped from labradore that shows the percentage drops or hikes in employment comparing one month to another.  “Periods in which the employment picture was better than the same month one year before are shown as green peaks. Periods in which it is worse are red valleys.”

Notice that the most recent month  - at the far right - was the worst in the past decade and that the situation since last October has generally been on par with the worst of the last decade.

And if that was not evidence enough for you of the magnitude of the employment numbers, labradore produced a chart showing the same data going back as far as Stats Canada could.

historic

The current situation in Newfoundland and Labrador is on par with the three worst job loss periods since the late 1970s. if the fishery tanks as it now appears to be doing, we could be in for one of the worst times on record.

Now the provincial government’s massive numbers economic stimulus release did not come as an accident or as a matter of routine or out of some desire to merely ensure that the ordinary wretches of the happy province knew in detail what was going on.

The current administration is not a bunch known to be enamoured of public interest disclosure.

There was a reason behind it.

There was also a reason why the job creation figures were suddenly given prominence and, one suspects, inflated to such proportions.

It would come as no surprise to find out that there was some kind of minor political screaming going on this past week at the need to get some good news out there to counteract the Premier’s health care meltdown.  The old boy busily defended himself by tossing out numbers about all the money that was being spent.

Coincidence?

We think not.

And then there were those Stats Can figures on employment. 

And maybe, just maybe, in there as well, the government pollster might have coughed up some numbers in answer to questions available only to his client, the provincial government.  Questions that ask for an assessment of  government performance in this sector or another or on this or that issue.

Maybe the signs of confidence aren’t good.

Maybe the confidence in handling the economy question got a majority of negatives as it did at least once before with the current crowd.  Negatives as big as the publicly reported positives.   The kind of polling numbers that make Hisself sit up and take notice. 

Or put a flag bag up, suddenly and surprisingly and inexplicably (unless you had the poll data).

Bad numbers.

The kind of numbers that put monsters under a politician’s bed.

No wonder the Premier and his fish minister looked really worried when the announced some sort of fisheries aid package will come along at some undefined point in the future, if necessary.

The reality of what is going on in the province – compared to the silly hype from government and other quarters – would be enough to give anyone the heebie-jeebies.

-srbp-

We’re more than a bit sceptical too, Jerome.

Finance minister Jerome Kennedy, quoted in the Friday Telegram:

"I'm have to tell you, I'm a bit skeptical, (Prime Minister Stephen Harper) indicates that 3,000 infrastructure projects across the country are underway," he said.

"Really, at the end of the day, there may be commitments on the part of the federal government, but what's taking place in this province is as a result of our government aggressively pursuing and accelerating this infrastructure strategy."

Hmmm.

By accelerating, that would mean finishing off stuff either started or promised up to four years ago, Jerome?

Like say half the stuff Kennedy listed in his blockbuster update which in no way insulted the premier’s sensibilities about announcing and re-announcing money that had been announced upwards of seven times before in some cases?

Or would that be taking credit for more than the government was really doing, another thing Provincial Conservative Kennedy accused the federal Conservatives of doing?

Like $800 million in new infrastructure spending  - on top of the $800 million already committed for this year – some of which is cost-shared with Ottawa. That would be stuff that isn’t budgeted even though it is supposed to go out before the end of the current fiscal year.

Presumably that acceleration would be what provincial transportation minister Trevor Taylor was talking about yesterday:

"So this year, when the Federal Government offered economic stimulus money, we already had our priority list identified. We had been proactive and our sound strategic planning allowed us to move forward with a series of significant projects very smoothly.

Okay.

So we know Jerome, Trevor and da b’ys really weren’t ahead of the game since half of what they tossed out has been in the works for years.  One project committed in 2007 and promised to be delivered in 2009 just went to tender the other day.

Not really ahead of the game, are we, hmmm?

But with that to one side, surely Trevor and Jerome already inked the deal with the feds for that new money set to flow later this year.

Apparently not.

Federal finance leprechaun Jim Flaherty told CTV’s Jane Taber the other day that:

We have agreements with almost everybody, not yet with Newfoundland and Labrador.

But if Newfoundland and Labrador already had their list together, why didn’t they sign the agreement yet?

Maybe Jerome  - the guy who didn’t know what the Clerk of the legislature did – was just too busy doing something else to read his infrastructure stimulus briefing notes on the new agreement so he could sign the thing. 

Jerome was right about one thing, though:  all the talk of commitments without actually getting anything built would make anyone sceptical. 

-srbp-

The Bi-coastal Difference

Justin Trudeau, popular fundraising draw.

The townie version, courtesy of the guy who used to help bag Brian Tobin’s political cash, this time helping to bag some donors on someone else’s behalf: $100 bucks a pop at a private residence in a very exclusive part of St. John’s.

The west coast version, courtesy of the guy who sometimes carried Tobin’s bags before he got a better job:

The event, which is open to the general public for an admission fee, will be held at the Family Adventure Park on Lundrigan Drive from 2:30 to 5 p.m. June 21.

As Justin himself put it about the Corner Brook event:

“People always want to hear what I have to say, but not nearly as much as I want to hear what they have to say,” said Trudeau. “So, having a more casual format like this family barbecue and a number of other meetings with different people will allow me to make sure people have the chance to get their message out there and across.”

-srbp-

"Holy Carpet-Bombing," Batman Update: Since originally posting on this on Wednesday, your humble e-scribbler has received no fewer than three separate e-mails with the invitation to the St. John's event at SuperDean's house attached.

Amazing.

Either, I am on someone's mailing list and the thing is being mass mailed everywhere - my guess - or there is some worry about attendence. (Not my guess and hopefully not the outcome for Siobhan's sake.)

Let's not even consider that the people e-mailing aren't regular Bond Papers readers.

Hmmm.

Then again, since it is a Liberal fundraiser that might not be surprising.

Some of the most loyal BP readers are local Tories trying to stay in tune with what's happening within their own administration or people with provincial government IP addresses who presumably are getting paid to keep an eye on things.

Liberals seem have better things to to do, apparently.

One of these things…

is not like the others.

  1. Hydro-electric generating plants belonging to three private sector companies.
  2. Former employees of a defunct paper making operation in central Newfoundland.
  3. Fish plant workers.
  4. Fish plant operators and fish harvesters.

1.   Hydro-electric generating plants get seized and turned over to the government’s own energy company free of charge, regardless of the NAFTA implications, in one fell swoop and through a bill rammed through the legislature in a day.  The bill also gave government the power to set any compensation, quashed an outstanding lawsuit and decreed that no legal action could result from the expropriation.

2.  Former employees of the defunct paper plant get a shrug initially but then get $35 million.

When the cash is announced, government claims it was their intention all along to pony up.  Odd, then, that people who questioned government publicly on its intentions were savagely attacked.

Odder too that the provincial government called for the federal government to cough up the dough.  There was even one of those eerie coincidence things with the union involved.

3.  Fish plant workers in the province  - upwards of 10,000 people or more staring at no work and no income - are told they’ll get something if necessary, but it is going to take months to figure out what the whole thing will look like, if it becomes necessary.  Think make work and then employment insurance and you’ll probably be pretty much on the mark.

4.  Fish plant operators and fish harvesters  - looking at financial ruin in some cases  - are basically told to sod off given that any cash to them would be a subsidy and well, “international trade agreements”  - like NAFTA - would be affected.

Williams said the province can't get involved in price negotiations, because it could result in trade retaliation from the United States…

 

-srbp-

How the mighty have fallen

From David Pugliese, the collapse of the once fine public affairs operation at National Defence:

It’s generally recognized that from 1998 to 2005, the public affairs branch at NDHQ was among the best  in the federal government. There were of course glitches, internal battles, tensions between journalists and public affairs officers and the occasional screw-up (a brief “gag” type order in 2001 that was quickly corrected) but overall the PR system was generally seen to be quite effective by those at NDHQ and many of those journalists who used it.

At the heart of that system was the philosophy that both civilian managers and military personnel --whether they be in charge of equipment programs, policy, or human resources, or whatever - were the best spokespeople to explain things to the news media.

Your humble e-scribbler was a lowly cog in that machine from 1994 to 200 as a reserve public affairs officer. Pugliese’s praise is high indeed and those who worked during that period recognised all the elements he notes. it was something public affairs officers could be proud of and the people who implemented the system has a commitment, as Pugliese notes, to “openness and transparency.”

Not so any more.

How did this happen? Some say that “risk adverse” bureaucrats are firmly in control  while others blame senior military officers for standing impotently on the sidelines and allowing this to happen. The Conservative government, with its information-control agenda, also gets its share of the blame, according to NDHQ insiders.

I continue to watch from the outside with interest.

Some of us watch from the outside with a profound sense of loss and disappointment.  Let’s not even talk about the empathy for the poor benighted professionals forced to work inside such a stupid system.

-srbp-

11 June 2009

“Old money” from Williams cabinet called “stimulus”

Danny Williams may not like it when federal cabinet ministers recycle announcements, but of  the 52 specific projects listed in the provincial government “economic stimulus” update news release issued on Thursday, almost half - 21 projects - were already announced, some as long ago as 2005. 

Some of the recycled old news slipped out earlier but the announcement on Thursday made the whole thing plain.

The Corner Brook long-term care facility project listed among the stimulus projects has been underway since March 2005. The Corner Brook court house, health facilities in Lewisporte and Labrador west  and renovations to the James Paton hospital in Gander date back to March 2006.

Many of those in the “old news” category were announced in 2007 in the Summer of Love spending commitment frenzy leading up to the last provincial general election. 

One project - the St. Alban’s aquaculture veterinary facility  - was announced in 2007 with a commitment the place would open in 2009.  Instead, the project has just been tendered.

There’s more to it than just the inclusion of old announcements that predate the ‘stimulus’ news conference pulled together as part of the February poll-goosing frenzy; some of the projects seem to include contributions of federal money as if the whole thing was provincial government spending.

The Torbay and CBS by-pass roads, for example, were announced in 2007 and 2008 respectively.  They’re cost-shared 50/50 with the federal government but the provincial news release shows the total cost without indicating it is only ponying up half the total. 

And while the Premier may sneer when his federal cousins announce announcements previously announced, that didn’t stop his own team from discussing projects, some of which have been included in as many as seven separate government news releases.

They are:

College of the North Atlantic campus, Labrador West:

Francophone school, HVGB:

Port Hope Simpson school:

L’Anse au Loup:

Labrador West hospital:

Here’s the list of the 21 Old Announcements from the “stimulus” update:

-srbp-

 

 

 

 

Polling bullshit from mayor

If Doc O’Keefe, the mayor of a Great Sittee, actually has a poll that shows him with numbers he is very comfortable with, then he’d release the whole thing.

The fact he won’t release the poll to local media suggests the numbers are a lot less rosy than O’Keefe is claiming.

That would also explain why the deputy mayor  - Ron Ellsworth - is getting his team ready for a run at the Barking-Lounger job made famous by Andy Wells and now occupied by the less-than-impressive O’Keefe.

Show us the numbers, Doc and maybe we’ll believe you.  Otherwise, that clocking noise we hear is probably your knees knocking together.

Or maybe the clock ticking out on your time as head of the Great Sittee.

-srbp-

Eerie coincidence 2

An economic stimulus package update and an update on an economic stimulus package.

Both will claim to have worked.

In one case, the update was part of a deal to stay in government.

In the other case, a government that has reluctantly provided any updates on anything, that loathes public access to government information and is stalling whistleblower protection legislation suddenly volunteers an update.

And the government pollster is already done his work for the quarter.

What’s up with that?

-srbp-

10 June 2009

Meanwhile in a phone booth in St. John's...‏

there’s a fundraiser for Siobhan Coady, member of parliament for St. John’s South- Mount Pearl.

coadydean Well, actually the thing isn’t being held in a phone booth but it is being held at SuperDean’s house.

Hundred bucks a plate.

Guest: Justin Trudeau.

Invite only.

Wonder who’s on the guest list?

We can cross Roger Grimes and any of his friends off, most likely.

Maybe there’ll be some new faces, the ones that make some of us consider doing another round of Two Degrees of Separation.

-srbp-

Fart-in-Church Update: And then in ye olde inbox appears an e-mail from an official party source with the invite to the SuperDean/Justin event. Perhaps your humble e-scribbler is supposed to be on the invite list.

While Siobhan is certainly worthy of support and Trudeau is a sure-fire draw, the venue leaves so much to be desired that it pretty much cancels out the positives.

Maybe someone in the media or one of the attendees should ask the host if he shares his old buddy's jaundiced view of Confederation and the Liberal Party.

After all, this is part of the philosophy of Dannyism and Dannyism is something that SuperDean apparently thinks we need to keep going for a couple of decades more:

The way that our people and our region have been treated by one arrogant federal Liberal government after another is disgusting. The legacy that the late Prime Minister Trudeau and Jean Chrétien will leave in Atlantic Canada is one of dependence on Mother Ottawa, which has been orchestrated for political motives for the sole purpose of maintaining power.
Yep. There is a Great Liberal Conspiracy afoot to oppress the people of Atlantic Canada solely for the benefit of Les Rouges.

Not only that but the Great Liberal Conspiracy was perpetrated by none other than Justin's father, he being "the late Prime Minister Trudeau".

Such sentiment would surely go over like a fart in church among Liberals or even a fair-minded non-partisan with some passable knowledge of the facts of the matter.

09 June 2009

Shuffle-up-a-gus

How often are there cabinet changes and shifts in the senior bureaucracy?

While there is no text-book solution to that question, aside from elections, resignations and political meltdowns, there usually aren’t a lot of shakeups in a team government.

The reasons are pretty simple.  Cabinet ministers and senior officials (deputy ministers and assistant deputies)  are expected to get to know their departments and the people in them, to form good working relationships and then get on with the business of running their respective shows.  cabinet will send down some instructions.  Departments are expected to come up with new ideas.

In order to do that, people have to spend time working together.  They need time to learn the issues and figure out what happens when you pull the lever over there in the corner.

All of that applies equally to both the political side of departmental management (the cabinet minister) and the public servants (deputy ministers and assistant deputies). 

In the eight years between 1996 and October 2003, successive Liberal premiers changed their cabinets (major and minor changes) 11 times. 

In the five and a half years since the fall 2003 election, the current administration has made changes to cabinet 12 times. The bulk of that shifting came in the first term, with at least two changes in assignments involving some ministers roughly every six months.

Over on the public service side, the relative numbers are even more dramatic.

Liberals:  24 appointments over eight years.

Progressive Conservatives:  37 in five and a half years or so.

Now some of these announcements were onesies and twosies, that is one appointment at a time.  In other cases, like the one made today, the changes have involved seven or eight people in different departments. 

Two of the appointments made Tuesday were for people filling jobs in an acting capacity while the person normally in the job is one some form of leave.  In some instances, there have been times when the top two positions in one department have both been acting simultaneously.  That hasn’t happened a lot but it has happened.

While changes at the cabinet level have been relatively infrequent since 2007, the same can;’t be said on the executive side.  Eight changes in 2005, but 11 in 2007, five in 2008 and four already in 2009. 

Beyond the frequency, your humble e-scribbler hasn’t finished a detailed assessment yet to see who has been moving and if there are any departments that have been the focus of the changes.

Still…

the numbers are striking.

-srbp-

Nova Scotia goes orange

They did it the old-fashioned way, working district by district and over a number of years to build up the party and its infrastructure.

“I've believed right from the beginning that we had to move the party into a mainstream position where we were in touch with the everyday lives of ordinary people,” he [NDP leader Darrell Dexter] said before the start of this campaign.

“I think people have begun to realize that the values that the New Democratic Party stand for are the values of the people of the province and it's just a matter of how we go about presenting them.”

There’s a lesson in there for some people.

-srbp-

Eerie similarities

Stephen Harper:

A defiant Prime Minister Stephen Harper defended his embattled natural resources minister on Tuesday, dismissing the opposition's call for him to fire Lisa Raitt over controversial comments caught on tape as "cheap politics”.

Someone who is not Stephen Harper:

“This is a significant issue with tremendous impact on many families and women in this province. To try to play politics with it, I guess, speaks to the credibility of the members who are raising it in that fashion. It speaks to the depths they will reach to try to play cheap politics in this province," said
Wiseman.

Someone else who isn’t Stephen Harper:

I am not supporting this motion because it reeks of cheap politics. It is partisan politics of its worst.

Well, it isn’t really a similarity except that politicians who are in a tough spot, who may be trying to defend the indefensible, usually have nothing better to do than accuse someone of playing “cheap” politics with an issue.

If they don’t say that they accuse their political opponents of “political games” or “political opportunism” even though in the course of the scrum cum rant, the politician admitted they’d been sitting on information for the better part of the last year. [Hint: Check the scrum video for the bit about when government knew about the computer search for the word “breast”. Further hint: it wasn’t April 2009]

Condescension is the least effective form of political argument.

-srbp-

What are the odds…

That a mid-20 something has the experience and maturity to serve as the media aide to a cabinet minister in any jurisdiction in Canada?

Pretty slim, as it turns out.

What are the odds that cabinet ministers anywhere in the country will start hiring based on something other than the current  - obviously insufficient - requirements?

Pretty slim.

-srbp-

Nova Scotia Election checklist

The seats to watch, via labradore, with rationale.

Commentary that beats the shite out of most of the stuff coming from the people who get paid to make commentary like this.

Yes, Don, that includes you.

-srbp-

08 June 2009

The Raitt Tapes story

Via the Chronicle Herald, now that the injunction application has failed:

“They’re terrified of the issues,” said Ms. Raitt.

“You know what? Good. Because when we win on this [Chalk River and medical isotopes] , we get all the credit. I’m ready to roll the dice on this. This is an easy one. You know what solves this problem? Money. And if it’s just about money, we’ll figure it out. It’s not a moral issue.”

“No,” says Ms. MacDonnell. “The moral and ethical stuff around it are just clear.”

“It’s really clear,” says Ms. Raitt. “Oh. Leona. I’m so disappointed.”

“Isn’t that interesting,” says Ms. MacDonnell. “They’re just so .... I wonder if it’s her staff trying to shield her from it or whether she is just terrified.”

“I think her staff is trying to shield her,” says Ms. Raitt. “Oh, God. She’s such a capable woman, but it’s hard for her to come out of a co-operative government into this rough-and-tumble. She had a question in the House yesterday, or two days ago, that planked. I really hope she never gets anything hot.”

-srbp-

07 June 2009

NL crude production forecast: 2009-2025

From the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, projected total annual oil production offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.  The CAPP report provides estimates of daily production which have been extended for this chart by multiplying by 365.Nl oil 2009-2025

The downward production trend is unmistakeable.  The increase in 2017 represents the increase from Hebron and Hibernia South.  The two year delay in signing the development deal postponed the extra production which would have replaced dwindling production from other fields.

To give a sense of the implication of this chart, total royalty revenue in 2016 would be US$400 million.  If we assume a 20% premium for an 80 cent Canadian dollar, that works out to Cdn$480.  Compare that to the estimated $1.265 billion in Budget 2009.

revenue oil

Any added revenue that may come from the Hebron royalty regime would not arrive until sometime after 2020.  Even then, added revenue from the so-called super royalty only comes in any month when the average price for West Texas Intermediate crude is above US$50 per barrel.

-srbp-

05 June 2009

Bluenose Dippers in front: Angus Reid

A poll by Angus Reid for CTV shows the Nova Scotia New Democrats with 47% support heading into Tuesday’s general election, ahead of the Liberals at 26%, the progressive Conservatives at 23% and the Greens at 3%.

The online poll, conducted June 1 and 2, reports a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The new poll, which is considerably more comprehensive in its detail than recent efforts by Halifax-based Corporate research Associates shows Nova Scotians looking for change. 

The poll also tracks apparent vote switching, with the New Democrats holding on to their 2006 votes and adding chunks from both other major parties.  The Angus Reid/CTV poll also carried enough detail to look at the geographic distribution of votes, something that would be important for trying to predict seat counts:

In contrast, the NDP appears to have gained broad-based support both regionally and politically. The party holds the upper hand in most regions except rural Cape Breton (where the Tories lead) and the Annapolis Valley (where the Liberals are ahead). While holding on to 83 per cent of their vote from the last election—the highest vote retention of any contending party—the NDP is drawing about a third of voters (31%) who backed the Liberals in 2006 and a quarter (26%) of respondents who supported the Tories. NDP voters are also more likely to vote than supporters of the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, suggesting that even a low turnout will not slow Dexter’s momentum.

-srbp-

Speech disappeared

For some unknown reason a speech delivered by Premier Danny Williams at an April 2008 Public Policy Forum testimonial has been removed from the organization’s website.  Williams was co-chair for the event. 

While the news release and the event notice remain, the speech has been disappeared. Speeches from the 2009 event are posted.

For those who’ve been following, that’s the speech in which Williams uttered the immortal phrase “counter-spinning negativity” to describe the stuff that keeps him up at night.

-srbp-

Gas facility joints list of energy projects in NL on hold

CBC news is reporting on Friday that Newfoundland LNG has shelved plans for a natural gas transhipment facility at Grassy Point, Newfoundland pending improvements in world natural gas and capital markets.

There’s no other reporting of the decision nor does the company have anything on its website about the project since it received environmental approval last August.

Construction had been expected to start this summer, according to CBC.

The company was confident the project would start construction in early 2007 however there were reasons to doubt project’s future 2008, as Bondpapers noted in April, August and October.

This is the cancellation of the third major project for northern Placentia Bay.  A proposal to build a second refinery collapsed in 2008 and earlier this year, owners of the Come by Chance oil refinery announced that expansion plans for that facility were on hold indefinitely.

-srbp-

Job losses in NL no paradise

The number of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians out of work in May 2009 compared to the same month last year is equivalent to almost the entire population of the Town of Paradise.

Some 12,000 fewer Newfoundlanders and Labradorians were collecting paycheques in May 2009 compared to May 2008, according to figures released Friday by Statistics Canada. Detailed tables show the losses and gains by economic sector.

Seasonally unadjusted figures show the changes by region, with central and the west coast of Newfoundland having the largest drops.  All regions recorded a decline in employment according to Statistics Canada.

In March, the provincial finance department projected only a modest decline in employment  - a mere 1.o percent - in 2009 compared to 2008.  The provincial finance department uses Statistics Canada figures in making its estimates.

Paradise is billed as the fastest growing municipality in the province.  According to the 2006 census, the town had a population of 12, 589.

Newfoundland and Labrador also posted the largest year over year percentage change in employment, with a drop of 5.3%.

Table:  Percent change in employment, May 2009 compared to May 2008,  seasonally adjusted, May (Source: Statistics Canada)

Newfoundland and Labrador

-5.3

Ontario

-3.3

Prince Edward Island

-3.0

British Columbia

-2.6

Alberta

-0.7

Quebec

-0.4

New Brunswick

+0.6

Manitoba

+0.6

Nova Scotia

+0.8

Saskatchewan

+2.6

 
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Update note (2129):  added links to detailed tables.

Bell 206 crash – photo interpretation

At approximately 2030 hrs local time, a Bell 206 belonging to Quinlan Brothers fish company crashed about 15 minutes east of Conne River on the south coast of Newfoundland.

The helicopter was apparently returning from a cabin in the Bay du Nord wilderness area when it crashed.  Three people remain in hospital in St. John’s.  They are reported to be in serious but stable condition.

nl-helicopter-crash-cbcThe Royal Canadian Mounted Police released a photograph late Friday of the scene.   

The Quinlan helicopter is in the foreground.  In the background is a Bell 206 belonging to Canadian Helicopters International.

In the picture at left (click on the photo to get the cbc.ca/nl story), it’s hard to see some of the detail.  The fuselage is intact, but the tail boom immediately aft of the fuselage is broken off  and one blade of the main rotor is apparently gone.  The helicopter reportedly struck a tree but it isn’t clear at this time from media reports if that caused the crash or was an incident that occurred while the aircraft came down due to another emergency.

The Telegram enlarged the main portion of the photograph.  Some of the detail is easier to see in that one.  We’ve added some coloured marks to help distinguish things a bit.

206 - conne river - marked

The red arrow points to the main rotor blade which is hanging by what appears to be a portion of the fibreglass material from which it is made. 

The yellow arrow points to the tail boom which sits pointed away from the fuselage, starboard side up.  You can make it out in between the top of the fuselage and the intact portion of the rotor blade. 

There’s no sign of the tail rotor at all but given the angle of this picture the thing could be intact but hidden by either the main fuselage or the tail boom.

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What drives current oil prices?

Some people will tell you that resurging growth in the Chinese economy is pushing oil prices up and will sustain high oil prices into the future.

That’s an interesting notion given the demand statistics.  take a look at daily consumption figures from nationmaster.com.  The figures here jive with a commentary by CBC Radio’s business consultant during an interview with On the Go’s ted Blade’s Thursday afternoon.

Now admittedly they are from 2007 but they show that American daily oil consumption is about thee times that of China.  Those figures have changed relatively over the past couple of years since both the American and the Chinese economies have taken a hit and the hits are connected.

There’s still an oil glut on the world markets, by the way, despite cuts in production at OPEC.

So why are oil prices high?

It seems that prices are relatively high for the same reason that helped drive oil to historic highs last year.  A weak American dollar coupled with questions about the American economic recovery are pushing speculators into the oil markets again. 

At some point, though, the markets will correct, just as they did last year. High oil prices will delay the American recovery and likely exacerbate the demand versus supply imbalance. In a world of tight money, the world can only sustain that situation for so long. 

At that point, just as in the mid-1980s, expect a second downward drop in oil prices after the initial steep slide.

Closer to home, that likely means any hopes of oil powering the provincial budget out of deficit might be a bit premature at best.  At worst, a dramatic drop in oil prices – like say to about half where it is now – or a delayed American recovery will only increase the deficit problem in the years ahead. 

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04 June 2009

Rio dumps Chinese, partners with BHP

Rio Tinto announced Friday that it is no longer pursuing its deal with Chinese industrial concern Chinalco. 

Instead, the company will launch a joint venture with BHP Billiton on iron ore assets the companies share in Australia.

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Anger, personified

The raw scrum video, via cbc.ca/nl of the response by Premier Danny Williams to an ongoing story at Eastern Health.  There’s also the full cbc.ca/nl online story on the ongoing controversy.  If that doesn’t work, try another link here:   http://tiny.cc/TEJTJ.

CBC news obtained documents through the province’s access to information laws that shed more detail on the release of information in early April related to the ongoing breast cancer testing issue.

Officials  - especially communications vice-president Jennifer Guy - at Eastern health,  New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael, all on the receiving end of the Premier’s anger including an accusation of  political opportunism on the part of the NDP leader. 

This is radically different from anything ever fired at people like Stephen Harper.  There’s none of the characteristic hyperbole, for instance.  You can feel the anger coming clearly through the audio portion. Eastern health chief executive Louise Jones held a newser later in the day;  that isn’t available online yet.

Williams recently criticised the province’s access laws for bogging down government officials with “frivolous” requests and used that an excuse for failing to deliver whistleblower protection legislation in the first session after the 2007 general election as Williams promised.

In a scrum with reporters last Friday, Williams also claimed there was not much experience globally with whistleblower protection laws

He also accused an unnamed witness at the Cameron inquiry into the breast cancer scandal of being motivated at least in part by a personal vendetta. Williams said someone “came on pretty strongly” and decided “to have a crack at government after they did not get their own way’ on employment for a relative with government.

Political opportunism by opposition leaders is not an unusual phenomenon in Newfoundland in Labrador, by the way:

“We told them it was only print-sharing and that there was no threat but, regardless of that, they did take the action they did,” he said.

“What happened wasn’t a breach. Their staff, we believe, knew it wasn’t a breach.”

The action referred to there by a police officer was a public accusation a Liberal political staffer had attempted to hack into the opposition Progressive Conservative computer system.

The story broke in early February 2002:

"The premier's office knew right away that this had happened and, in my opinion, they've acknowledged that a political staffer has interfered with our (computer) system," Conservative Leader Danny Williams said Friday.

"That's very serious stuff."

The language from then opposition leader Williams was strong and, as it seems people in his office knew at the time their version of the story was nothing that would warrant the over-the-top language their boss used:

"Here we have a political staffer trying to break into our computers," Mr. Williams added. "It's very disconcerting to us. There's strategic information in our offices."  [“Liberal tried to hack our computers, Tories say: Newfoundland probe”, National Post Richard Foot, Saturday, February 9, 2002]

or from a Telegram story headlined “Tories sweep offices for bugs”:

"An attempt at access is just as serious as access - no different than attempted robbery is as serious as robbery itself," said Williams, who is a lawyer.

"From our perspective, we're treating it as a very, very serious matter."

 

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03 June 2009

NS election: undecideds dominate

Forget what you’ve seen reported.

Take a look at the Corporate Research Associates quarterly poll results since early 2008, adjust them to take out the “percentage of decideds” skew and it’s pretty clear that no political party in Nova Scotia is lighting anyone on fire.

NS party There’s what you get and it really isn’t pretty.

With the exception of the poll taken in the first two weeks of May 2009, “undecided” more Nova Scotians are undecided than are opting for any one of the three major political parties. 

The New Democrats may wind up on top in next week’s vote, but that’s just the way the electoral system works.  It sure won’t be because there is any massive excitement among Nova Scotians for an orange option.  Blue and Red are in worse shape.

Leadership certainly isn’t a factor.  Sure, CRA asks which leader Nova Scotians prefer and sure the NDP guy comes out on top.

But when asked to rank the issues, leadership comes out as the big issue for a mere five percent of respondents in the poll done in the second half of May.

According to that poll, the top issues are health care funding (37%) and dealing with economic concerns (33%).  The next most frequently mentioned issue  - education funding – comes in at a mere 11%.

That’s interesting because the NDP are pushing Darrel Dexter above all in what has become a fairly typical “Big Giant Head” type of campaign.  But  - stealing an approach from the federal Conservatives - the Nova Scotia New Democrats are making seven key commitments.  The top two are the economy and health care.  Stephen Harper only needed five commitments, incidentally.

Ditto the Liberals, at least as far as making the party leader the centrepiece.  That’s a weird choice given that the guy doesn’t poll all that well in comparison to others and – if CRA is correct – the leader ain’t the vote driver. The Nova Scotia Grits also have seven ideas at the heart of their plan, the second and third of which are health care and the economy.

The Nova Scotia Progressive Conservatives are in trouble.  Google the party and the information that comes back claims the party is led by some guy named Hamm. If the party website can’t get any more up-to-date, then there are issues here that help explain the Tory’s consistently crappy polling and why they are likely to be headed for the opposition benches for a while.

The Progressive Conservatives play down their leader a bit – hint:  it ain’t Hamm -  which is understandable if the polling is right. The party platform has five core areas and the top one is the economy. The second one is also the economy, expressed as “rural development”.  The third and forth are about crime and “defending” Nova Scotia while the fifth is another traditional Nova Scotia economic engine:  the political pork feast of roads and infrastructure.

If you look at all three parties, neither of them is really hammering away at health issues or the economy, at least as far as their news releases are concerned. 

For an outsider watching the election from afar, media coverage wouldn’t suggest the election is a hot topic.  Take a gander at the Chronicle Herald website and find any highlight of election coverage. Try and find it.  CBC has the standard [Insert the name of the jurisdiction here] Votes [Insert Year Here] but the web space is nothing to write home about. those are just two.  The actual on-air coverage from the electronics, plus Connie TV’s Steve Murphy or Global might be different.

Something suggests, though, that the election isn’t turning anybody’s crank in a big way.

That, rather than the idea the New Democrats will be the government, might turn out to be the story next week:  “Nova Scotia had an election and they swapped one minority government for another;  see you again in a year or so.”

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NS election: Undecideds double in two weeks

The number of undecided voters in the Nova Scotia general election doubled in the second half of May compared to first half, according to two polls from Halifax-based Corporate Research Associates.

In a poll taken in early May only 17% of respondents were undecided or weren’t planning to vote.  In the second poll, 33% of respondents were undecided. 

The second poll covered a larger sample (834) than the first poll (627). The first poll was conducted from May 7 to May 16.  The second poll as conducted between May 18 and May 30.  CRA reports the margin of error for both polls as 3.9% for the first poll and 3.4% for the second, 19 times out of 20.

Support for the front running New Democrats dropped from 30.7% to 29.5%.  Liberal support dropped from 25.7% to 18.8% and Progressive Conservative support dropped from 23.2% to 17.4%.

Interpretation of the poll in conventional media relies on dealing only with decided voters. Thus, CBC concludes that “support for the NDP has risen sharply to 44 per cent from 37 per cent” while ignoring the change in undecideds.

There is no indication that Corporate Research Associates probes undecideds in the two polls, completed as part of CRA’s quarterly omnibus polling in Atlantic  Canada.

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Adios, Lisa

Not only did federal natural resources minister Lisa Raitt or one or her staff leave a three inch thick binder of confidential briefing notes at a CTV office, they didn’t try and get it back.

If that isn’t cause for dismissal, then there isn’t much left that is.

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02 June 2009

Lessons not learned, Part II: health department may have breached privacy law

Unless they’ve got written consent for the disclosure, the province’s health department violated several sections of the province’s Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act.

A report by independent consultants on the location of a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) device includes the home address and telephone number of one of the consultants as well as complete curricula vitae of the three consultants.

The original news release directed interested people to contact the department’s communications director for a copy of the report. The release issued Tuesday contained a link to the complete report, with the attached CVs.

The report was received on February 28 and released on June 2, in violation of a supposed government policy requiring reports to be released within 30 days of being received. 

Under section 30 of the Act, government must refuse to disclose personal information unless there is written consent. A similar provision is contained in section 39.

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Sectional Update:  The ever eagle-eyed among you noticed that since this document wasn’t released under the access to information bit of the legislation, section 30 doesn’t apply.

Correct.

Section 39 does and that confusion is purely mine in the way the post was quickly written.

The act covers requests for information PLUS privacy protection.  The privacy part containing s. 39 covers what government may do with personal information.  One of the things is not release it without permission.

It all comes out to the same thing.

s.39 of the ATIPPA applies in this case.  Without permission, they weren’t suppose to publish personal information.

Lessons not learned

“They should be shot over there.”

So said Premier Danny Williams when the public reacted angrily to a news release from Eastern Health late on a Friday afternoon that buried the kernel of hard news in the middle of the release.

Turns out senior government officials knew about the whole thing in advance, had a hand in drafting the release and that cabinet ordered the disclosure immediately, despite the objections of officials at Eastern Health.

The documents, released under the province’s open records laws, are available on the cbc.ca/nl website. Interestingly, they appear to have been processed electronically.  This is contrary to standard government practice in some departments which seem to favour using only hard copies as a way of maximising the cost to the applicant.

When asked in the legislature on April 5 (the first sitting day after the Friday news release) when he and officials of his department first learned, health minister Ross Wiseman initially ducked the question, talking instead about research done previously to identify all patients involved in breast cancer testing.

On the second and third questions, Wiseman finally relented, but claimed he had only learned of the matter on April 2, presumably at cabinet:

Yes, I was aware that they were going to be doing that release. The conversation that my office had with Eastern Health was midday on Thursday (April 2, the day cabinet met) , and the understanding and direction was pretty clear: that this information needed to get out immediately. The fact that they were late on Friday afternoon releasing it, I had no control over, Mr. Speaker. That was their call, their decision to release it. I received the notice of the release just moments before it was out. I was out of the Province on government business, meeting with my colleagues in Halifax and with other health regions.

Mr. Speaker, that was their call, but I would agree with the member opposite that getting a release out late Friday afternoon and not having anyone available from the organization to comment on it is not something that I would agree with either.

Wiseman is only referring here to the cabinet directive to release the information, not when his officials first learned of the issue.  The documents obtained by CBC place that time earlier that week. An e-mail from health deputy minister Don Keats shows the minister looking for a briefing on the subject on March 31.

Wiseman’s answers in the House on April 5 also leave the impression that government had no involvement in the matter:

I want to tell the member opposite and the members of the House, Eastern Health write their own press releases. They release their own communiqués. I was aware of the information that they had.  I was aware on Thursday that they were going to be releasing it. My understand was they were going to be releasing it quickly. I then went out of the Province on business, only to find that I got a copy of the release at the same time it was being released to the public.

That also wasn’t strictly accurate since, according to the released documents, cabinet had directed the release immediately without waiting until patients had been contacted directly.

By the following day of questions in the House of Assembly, April 6, Wiseman was acknowledging he had learned of the issue on April 1.

Speaking with reporters on April 5, the Premier condemned Eastern Health for releasing the information in the way they did including not disclosing the information to patients first. That’s the same scrum in which he uttered the infamous comment that “they” should be shot over there.

Justice Margaret Cameron, in a report released last month, found that Eastern Health had erred by not telling the whole truth of what it knew, Williams said. The premier slammed the authority for sending out information late on a Friday and then not making anyone available to talk about it immediately. He said patients deserve full and transparent disclosure.

"This is about people's lives … They have a right to be told," Williams said. "They have a right to be told in a proper manner. There has to be proper disclosure; there has to be someone there to answer questions. It's not something you do at the tail end of a Friday afternoon."

The documents on the cbc.ca/nl website do not appear to represent all the documents related to incident.  Missing are documents or any notes referring to having the issue placed on the cabinet agenda and what, if any communications there would have been between the department and Executive Council, the government’s central co-ordinating agency.

Some of the documents were written days after the event and around the same time Eastern Health’s vice president of communications engaged in a rather bizarre bit of public spinning about the location of information in the news release.  She wasn’t the only one spinning the story.

Coincidentally the week before the Premier said that people should be shot over the incident, courts in Ontario upheld the ruling that such language constituted uttering a threat.

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Williams invents excuse for stalling whistleblower law

In a scrum with reporters last week, Premier Danny Williams said he has instructed government officials to gather evidence on experience with whistleblower legislation because there  is “not much precedent” around the world for whistleblower legislation.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The United States Congress enacted the false claims act of 1863 to protect the public from unscrupulous manufacturers who substituted sawdust for gunpowder in Union Army contracts during the Civil War. The legislation,  updated in 1986, allowed citizens to file claims against manufacturers and awarded the citizens – effectively whistleblowers – a portion of any subsequent award.

There are 18 other American federal statutes that contain whistleblower protection.

A 2002 statute, enacted in the wake of Enron, extended protection to private sector employees who blow the whistle on wrongdoing.

The US federal government has had a whistleblower statute to protect federal employees since 1989. The earliest such law for federal employees was enacted in 1912.

Most American states have protection for employees who disclose unethical or illegal acts by employers.

The United Kingdom has had whistleblower protection since 1998.

Various Australian states and the Australian Capital territory have whistleblower legislation.  The earliest dates from 1988.

The Government of Canada has had a whistleblower protection law since 2005 and in 2006, Manitoba passed a public interest disclosure statute.

Williams promised whistleblower legislation during the last general election, in 2007, saying:

The very first session of the House that we have, that's something we'll have a look at. As a matter of fact, there'd be no reason why we wouldn't get it on.

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01 June 2009

Who said that?

What about the principles of accountability of government and the reliability of the budgeting process? Why doesn't government just tell the people the truth? You, the people, have a right to know.

Who said that?

When?

Where?

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