29 January 2010

By-election spec starts early

Beth Marshall’s elevation to the Antechamber to the Kingdom of Heaven started the inevitable by-election speculation almost immediately.

One will have to be called within 60 days of Marshall vacating the seat.  Under local election laws, that means that people can start looking for special ballots today.

Odds are it will be called immediately after the Olympics are over.  The provincial government has popped for too many tickets to make everyone – the Premier included – cancel their trip to wet coast in order to stay home and fight a by-election.

The thing will be knocked off as quick as you please so the new member can sit in the spring session of the legislature.

And who might that member be?

Well, on the Conservative side, the name of failed paradise mayoral candidate Kurtis Coombs has popped up right away.  Let’s just say he has a certain Kent-like cache to him right at the moment that might appeal to party leaders of a certain style.

Beth’s constituency assistant would be a logical choice as well since the provincial Conservatives seem to be in that phase where the most likely candidates come from political staff.  But maybe not since Beth is likely to be moving her crew to the federal payroll. 

That leads very quickly back to young Mr. Coombs.

Look for that name to come up more and more in the next few days.

On the Liberal side, people will likely cycle through some of the usual names.  There won’t be too many people from the metro area who are likely to come forward.

Peter Dawe is already being courted to sub for Paul Antle in St. John’s East federally next time so take them both off your list.

Jim Walsh has a previous engagement so he won’t be staging a political comeback soon.

Ralph Wiseman?

Way outside chance, but then again, your humble e-scribbler didn’t call Beth right for the senate seat.

Those are just the early names.  More are sure to turn up as the date for the by-election call gets closer.

-srbp-

23 comments:

Chris said...

No doubt Coombs will give some thought on running. You’re right about Wiseman being a long shot. Ralph may not get nominated yet alone elected, he’s despised that much. If he didn’t get the message last fall, he’s as out of touch as most people think he is.

My early prediction has at least two councillors mulling over a run. Unfortunately for one - and somewhat ironically - he hurt his chances by not running for mayor last September, even though he did give it some thought.

But like you said, it’s early - too early for me to be naming names. We’ll know a little more in a week or two

Ed Hollett said...

It's never too early to name names, Chris.

I just wanted to get Ralph The Obvious (Ditto Paul and Peter) out of the way so people cand focus on real potential candidates.

So who are these municipal pols with aspirations of bigger things?

Chris said...

Well, since you asked…

When I first heard the Marshall announcement the two names that came to mind were Dan Bobbett and Allan English.

It’s no secret that Bobbett wanted the deputy mayor’s chair and eventually the mayor’s job. He has said that. And like so many mayors in the province - including our former mayor Diane Whalen – the next logical step would be a run for the House. Whether or not that’s where he was headed is speculation on my part. He did, however, run a highly organized and expensive campaign last fall. That’s where I think Bobbett was heading. And his star was rising. His was on numerous committees, spoke out against the rapid development of the town, but this seemed to change once he got elected. When he said Ralph “gets things done”, he lost my vote.

Unfortunately for Bobbett, he did not take a run for mayor last fall. This hurt him in two ways. By running, he would have received the anti-Wiseman vote, been seen as someone standing up to the developers (and Wiseman) and likely would have won. That would have positioned him well if he decided to give the HOA a go.

Also, if his threw his name into the ring, Coombs - who filed papers on the last day for nominations - would likely not have run for mayor.

But Bobbett decided to run for councillor effectively hitching his horse to the wrong wagon. Many viewed him as siding with developers (and Wiseman). In fact, some of the people on the concerned citizens committee, of which Bobbett was a member, felt they he had turned his back on them. The end result? Despite spending all that money, he barely made it back onto council, receiving the second smallest number of votes of any councillor. Two newbies received more votes than he did. That speaks volumes.

English, on the other hand, likely has no aspirations of a provincial run but if he did, he would have to be an early favourite. He’s very popular and well-respected within town - not only for his volunteer work and the job he did as councillor and now as deputy major - he was seen as the only one from the previous council to stand up and question both Wiseman and the rapid development of the town. In the last election, he won the highest number of votes of any incumbent. And remember, some incumbents were voted off the island. It’s unlikely, however, English will run. He will be the next mayor of Paradise, if he wants it. (Depending, of course, on the Supreme Court ruling expected next week).

All that being said, either Bobbett and/or English may still give it a go.

But the intriguing thing in this is that Coombs is now the wildcard. If he runs, it may force others with aspirations to seriously reconsider.

Again, this is pure speculation on my part. Take it for what it is. I’ll have more on my blog this weekend.

Cheers

Wm. Murphy said...

What a great time for someone who is obsessed with Leadership to chime in....

The Libs do not have a hope in hell of winning this seat. The only way is if the person coming forward has intentions of providing a credible alternative during the falls leadership convention....and the chances of that are remote. If not, the Cons will win handily. Take this to the bank.

Elizabeth Marshall did a good job in the riding and the economy for people residing in Paradise has never been better. Everyones working, home sales in the riding are on gallop and there is absolutely no way they will switch to a Party with ineffectual leadership and to a Party that is not even remotely close to being ready to govern.

People will no doubt yak on about the great strides in the recent byelections; but so what. This will be a slam dunk for the Conservatives with the added bonus that Cabinet ministers will not have to travel far to the hustings.

In fact this will be such a blow that Ms. Jones will be like a moose in the head lights. Which begs the question on when she will announce that she will step down as interim Leader to prepare for the "battle" in the fall.

I would imagine Ed...that you are in agreement that she must step down....please share your thoughts

Wm.

WJM said...

Elizabeth Marshall did a good job in the riding and the economy for people residing in Paradise has never been better. Everyones working, home sales in the riding are on gallop

And Elizabeth Marshall caused this... how again? Geeze, it's bad enough that people believe in the imaginary "Williams Effect".

Aren't you worried that her departure for the Senate is going to cause unemployment to rise, and house prices to slump?

Why or why not?

Ed Hollett said...

Or, if they thought about it, they'd realise beth did not deliver those things, the Leader did.

Therefore, as in the Straits, they coukld vote for anyone knowing the Lesder who produced the Great Renaissance would still be there to protect them in the paternalistic fashion.

It's always good when the guy who advances a certain theory abandons altogether just to make an argument about what? How much he dislikes Yvonne or something>

Whatever it is, WJ, the whole comment wasn't about the way the Leadership Principle will work in Topsail.

Wm. Murphy said...

And Elizabeth Marshall caused this

who said that Einstein? I said that the riding is doing just fine and to put a representative from a Party, void of a Leader and policy, will not happen. You see, the only change people like is a dirty diaper when things are going well. Why the hell would anyone want to vote for a represenative who is part of a rudderless ship....especially when the riding is on bust. People have no reason for change in this district. Prattling on about bossism, the imaginary William's effect or the Leadership principle is all crap rising from the keyboards.


Talk all you want about how I have somehow advanced a theory to only abadonon it later. I will continue to say that unless the Libs put a real leader in place then this is as good as it gets. There is no advancement of theories....what a load of shit. I have no hate on for Yvonne Jones. I have no dislike of the women.. But as a politician who is ready and capable of leading the province...ain't gonna happen.

So there you go Ed and WJ Einstein....Please make the case that Ms. Jones is ready and capable. I am all ears. My money is that your future comments will be about DW and not the incompetence of the Lib leader.

Btw, you never bothered to answer the question on whether Ms.Jones should step down?

You can also weigh-in Einstein

Wm

Ed Hollett said...

Sorry old man but you are evidently in a discussion with yourself.

I mean what else can it be when you advance this idea (I called it a theory) that the leader of a party is the only determining factor of anything, only to watch you abandon it entirely in your assessment of what will happen in Topsail.

Wm. Murphy said...

Let me know Ed when I advanced the idea that the leader of a party is the only determining factor of anything...go on big guy, show everyone when I said that. Of course it is not the only determining factor.... But I guarantee that it will be the main factor in the reason why the Libs will loose the byelection and the next general election.

If you do not want to do that ...then show everyone your thoughts on whether or not Ms. Jones should step down as interim leader.

I do apoligize for having this discussion by myself....sometimes it is hard to engage people smarter than me....I'll continue to try.

WM.

Winston Smith said...

I real danger for the Tories, as I see it, is that Mr. Williams will stumble across this web site, read one of the demotivational posters (scroll down to view), and suffer a bout of official pessimism. I'm told that the URL is circulating widely on the 8th Floor: http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

Ed Hollett said...

Wm Murphy on the Topsail by-election, which must occur before the end of March:

"The only way is if the person coming forward has intentions of providing a credible alternative during the falls leadership convention....and the chances of that are remote. If not, the Cons will win handily."

Do you not even read what you write?

Wm. Murphy said...

then show everyone your thoughts on whether or not Ms. Jones should step down as interim leader.


I have read this...have you?

Wm.

Wm. Murphy said...

The only way is if the person coming forward has intentions of providing a credible alternative during the falls leadership convention....and the chances of that are remote. If not, the Cons will win handily."


Okay Ed..take a deep breath, turn off the radio, concentrate and pay close attention. I will try and explain...ready?

The only way is if the person coming forward has intentions of providing a credible alternative during the falls leadership convention.

If someone who was seen as a good leader and credible "Premier in waiting" ran in the upcoming Topsail byelection, then the Libs may have a chance of winning the seat...still with me Ed?

Like I said...the chances of someone like that running is remote. If someone with these attributes does not run for the Libs then the Cons will win the seat handily....there now, that wasn't hard to understand.

Wm.

Ed Hollett said...

I guess you have Obsessive Yvonne Disease because you seem incapable of writing anything that doesn't connect back to Yvonne or leadership.

Or maybe it is Obsessive Leader Disease or Obsessed with Liberals Disease.

In any event, your comments link a by-election in the spring, one way or another, with events in the fall.

Your obsession/compulsion is entirely your problem.

WJM said...

who said that Einstein? I said that the riding is doing just fine

And to hear Danny say it, every part of the province is doing fine... yet, from time to time, they vote against him. Strange.

Why the hell would anyone want to vote for a represenative who is part of a rudderless ship.

The biggest, most rudderless ship in Dannystan right now is Danny Williams-Government itself.

Prattling on about bossism, the imaginary William's effect or the Leadership principle is all crap rising from the keyboards.

Especially when the keyboards are being typed on by people who actually believe in the Williams Effect.

WJM said...

Winston, I'm pretty sure "Blame", "Cluelessness", "Consulting", "Demotivation", "Do It Later", "Dysfunction", "Flattery", "Government", "Idiocy", "Leaders", "Planning", "Priorities", "Propaganda", and "Strife" are all official Danny Williams-Government policies, near as I can tell.

Wm. Murphy said...

I guess you have Obsessive Yvonne Disease...Or maybe it is Obsessive Leader Disease or Obsessed with Liberals Disease.

To clear any confusion I have Obsessive Yvonne Disease...or OYD for short. Yea I am obsessed with the fact that your energies and that of Eienstein and others, are focused on the Williams effect. I am obsessed and confused on the reasons people don't spend the time looking at alternatives and the possibilty that they may need a leader to actually lead the Party. Maybe then the Williams effect will go away quicker. Maybe even DW will go away quicker.

So yea I am obsessed with this...I am also obsseed with people who continue to moan about how stupid the electorate is for listening to the DW rant. You must know by now that I think DW is a raving lunatic and someone who has an ego bigger than Churchill Falls. The man is dangerous and calculating to the very essence of democracy.

But when I rant and become obsessed with the lack of leadership by Yvonne Jones, I am categorized as someone who has drank the purple file Kool aid...
What nonsense!

So for the time being...you are right when you say I am incapable of writing about anything else.

Be carefuful the OYD is spreading... don't forget to cover your arse and wash your hands.

Wm.

Ed Hollett said...

Lemme see if I can deal with this as succinctly as possible:

1. There is no Williams effect which of course would be the point I've made many times. As such, it's a bit odd to suggest I am obsessed with something I don't think exists.

2. "I am obsessed and confused on the reasons people don't spend the time looking at alternatives and the possibilty that they may need a leader to actually lead the Party."

Maybe some other people do. I just don't happen to be one of them. So sue me.

3. "But when I rant and become obsessed with the lack of leadership by Yvonne Jones, I am categorized as someone who has drank the purple file Kool aid..."

At least from my end, I've just rejected your obsession with leadership as the main issue with everything, always.

That doesn't mean you've drunk any Kool Aid. it just means you are looking at things pretty much like others do which means that you will wind up going around and around in the same circles as everyone else.

Wm. Murphy said...

http://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2006/09/danny-brand.html

Have a quick skim of this and let me know if leadership and the branding associated with a good leader is important.

Wm. Murphy said...

I may have missed your reply so I am writing again....you don't claim there is a Williams effect however you went to great effort to espouse the Danny Brand and the results from the brand.

Interesting how on one hand you talk about how Leadership is not an issue over at the Liberals and then in 2006 you epsouse this insightful tidbit...

"However, in Newfoundland and Labrador, the political environment is small, does not have a strong party system and has certain conventional ideas that both suppress dissent and encourage a deference to dominant ideas and political actors. In such an environment, permanent campaigning - coupled with a rudimentary notion of branding - can explain Danny Williams continued strong popular support."


Maybe we can "brand" Yvonne...that would do the trick

Not to worry Ed...this post will slip to the older post section and our conversation will be on page two.....for now.

Wm.

Ed Hollett said...

Simply put, there is a difference between describing something and advocating it.

In describing the whole concept of The Dan and the Cult of personality I was not advocating it, nor was I suggesting it was the be all and end all of everything.

Wm. Murphy said...

Simply put...that's full of shit

Ed Hollett said...

No one said you had to agree.