[Note: This is a revised version of the original post. The earlier one was based on the wrong tables]
The 2007 provincial government bounty on live births appears to have had little impact on trends in birth rates among the 20-somethings in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The same is true for the 30-somethings.
Mothers between ages of 35 and 39 had more children in 2010 than their counterparts did 20 years earlier. Cross reference with the population and you can see that the rate doubled, from one in 61 women giving birth to one in 28.
The number of babies born to women between 30 and 34 remained roughly the same in 2010 as it was in 1991. Cross reference with population, though and you can see that the rate increased from one in 17 women to one in 10.
There appears to be a correlation between the bounty introduced in late 2007. The increase actually start in 2007, meaning that the children born that year were conceived before the public announcement of the bounty.
There is a dramatic increase from 2007 (1365) to 2009 (1514). But note that it tails off again. What we can’t discount here is other factors besides the cash bonus might have driven that uptick. The population took a jump in 2006 leading into 2007 and stayed that way. Those canaries who came back in advance of the recession might also have been more likely to be of child-bearing age.