Market research firm MQO released a poll on September 10 about the Windsor Lake by-election.
They'd surveyed 300 people about how they would likely vote and about who they thought would make the best Premier from among the provincial party leaders.
On their choice among the candidates, MQO reported that 41% of decided and leaning voters favoured Paul Antle, 37% favoured Ches Crosbie, and 22% favoured Kerri Claire Neil.
The result on September 20 saw Crosbie win with 43% of votes cast. Antle got 38% and Neil garnered 19% of votes.
Pretty much the opposite of what MQO said.
So MQO got it wrong, some will say.
Others will think that Antle's campaign collapsed and Crosbie surged ahead based on whatever factors they might like to pick.
Well, there are a few problems with either of those scenarios.