tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-99253112024-03-12T02:21:34.725-02:30The Sir Robert Bond PapersThe real political division in society is between authoritarians and libertarians.Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comBlogger8285125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-15917268692483479692021-01-23T15:19:00.002-03:302021-12-16T14:22:59.403-03:30Find the new Bond Papers<p> We've moved to <a href="http://edhollett.substack.com">edhollett.substack.com</a>.</p><p>Read for free, sign-up for email delivery, or subscribe and get special content on politics and history in Newfoundland and Labrador.</p><p>Bond Papers by Ed Hollett.</p><p>Sign-up below.</p>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://edhollett.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-7385545980094666022021-01-03T07:00:00.001-03:302021-01-03T07:00:05.661-03:30Time for a change #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;">We’ve moved.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Starting Monday, you’ll find SRBP at </span><a href="https://edhollett.substack.com/"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">edhollett.substack.com</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It’s January, the start of a new year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And it’s also the 16<sup>th</sup> anniversary of <i>The
Sir Robert Bond Papers</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There’s a lot happening or about to happen in politics
in Newfoundland and Labrador.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So there’s no better time to shake things up.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As in 2005, Bond Papers will still fill a niche on the
local political scene, one that has grown to a chasm in some respects.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Someone said the other day that I was blogging before
people knew what blogging was. A blog fit the need of the times. New demands or
larger demands means finding a new way to fill the gaps in the political
landscape. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And so the new approach will
allow me to use new ways to deliver fresh information and fresh perspectives on
local politics. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There’ll still be at least one new post a week, at
7:00 AM every Monday. Some Monday posts will be available to anyone each month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Through a subscription, you can support Bond Papers and
see the new content you will help develop. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There’ll be fresh analysis and commentary from me and
from guest writers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There’ll be a podcast,
periodic at first and then more regularly as things get rolling. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Substack makes it easy to offer live q and a sessions,
so I’ll be adding that to the mix for subscribers. With an election looming and
then a series of major announcements and a budget due over the next three
months, there’ll be plenty of fuel for real-time discussions between a panel
and the audience as we all try to figure out where things are going. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’ll be exploring ways to add video to the mix as well,
whether via Substack or through another platform like Facebook.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As with the blog, I’ll try things to see what works
best. </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“In any
thriving democracy,” the first SRBP post said 16 years ago, “sound public
policy can only come through informed debate and discussion.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That remains
the philosophy around here even though we are far from a thriving democracy. By
the way, Monday’s first Substack post - the working title is “Process” - will
touch on the state of political affairs in Newfoundland and Labrador. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Whatever the
format, Bond Papers will continue to be about stirring you up with information.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Challenging. Provocative. Saucy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Put your own word on it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s still
what Bond Papers will be.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Just from a
new location on the Internet, with your continued support. <o:p></o:p></span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-87898605086541541472020-12-30T07:00:00.061-03:302020-12-30T07:00:04.397-03:30Top 15 of Year 15<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBPDSC7472NKltkq5YSCKB25MjST5MQI7sb4SmWskcjiVX5KCP_XQWN9zvoEvL4giHw-5PF0GG7PVWx1OQ-NJok_BvDmyXu0-buqtzyrTpp2uhsMmpqHGdyYXu2WBaIl7qwCbhbQ/s375/ROK+15.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="375" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBPDSC7472NKltkq5YSCKB25MjST5MQI7sb4SmWskcjiVX5KCP_XQWN9zvoEvL4giHw-5PF0GG7PVWx1OQ-NJok_BvDmyXu0-buqtzyrTpp2uhsMmpqHGdyYXu2WBaIl7qwCbhbQ/w189-h189/ROK+15.png" width="189" /></a></div><br />This is the 15th year of Bond Papers.<p></p><p>This Sunday marks the 16th anniversary and there's a big announcement coming.</p><p>Check back.</p><p>In the meantime, enjoy the top 15 posts from this past year.</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-facts-of-case-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">The facts of the case</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/03/cleaning-up-mess-of-muskrat-falls-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">Cleaning up the mess of Muskrat Falls</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/02/interesting-news-buried-under-bull.html" target="_blank">Interesting news buried under bullshit</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/04/number-of-active-covid-cases-in-nl.html" target="_blank">Number of active COVID cases in NL drops dramatically</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/05/troubling-travel-ban-may-be-illegal.html" target="_blank">Troubling travel ban may be illegal</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/04/doctor-aggies-hanswer-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">Dr. 'aggies H'answer</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/02/on-need-for-politics-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">On the need for politics</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/01/john-crosbie-nlpoli-cdnpoli.html" target="_blank">John Crosbie</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/06/all-news-mob-will-let-us-print-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">All the news the mob will let us print</a></li><li>T<a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-three-cvd19-pressures-nl-government.html" target="_blank">hree Covid Pressures GNL will Face</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/06/mimicry-and-pantomime-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">Mimicry and Pantomime</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/10/how-much-is-churchill-falls-worth-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">How much is Churchill Falls worth?</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-bow-wow-parliament-creates-kangaroo.html" target="_blank">The Bow-Wow Parliament Creates a Kangaroo Kourt</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/04/bursting-bureaucratic-bullshit-bubbles.html" target="_blank">Bursting bureaucratic bullshit bubbles</a></li><li><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/09/policy-confusion-does-no-one-any-good.html" target="_blank">Policy confusion does no one any good</a></li></ol><div style="text-align: left;">Bonus:</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Two posts this year inadvertently wound up with the same title: </div><div style="text-align: left;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>"<a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/03/all-around-in-circles-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">All around in circles</a>"</li><li>"<a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/12/all-around-in-circles-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">All around in circles 2</a>"</li></ul></div><div style="text-align: center;">-srbp-</div><p></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-72255732131406049292020-12-28T07:00:00.005-03:302020-12-29T22:17:05.203-03:30Mind the Gap #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4n4i0bXnEC_qT2BIAOYpLdQbFRyz0jxl4zoeZRGmkOGF_OvKeLS4ptOR1l2tLAxi5csrcoXnBaJyn3ja1z4LPNRoLEx_vx4aEYXj-WfZRMSDDxA0t6R7lKxSjoPwNd_tUb6ORJw/s875/mind+the+gap.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="875" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4n4i0bXnEC_qT2BIAOYpLdQbFRyz0jxl4zoeZRGmkOGF_OvKeLS4ptOR1l2tLAxi5csrcoXnBaJyn3ja1z4LPNRoLEx_vx4aEYXj-WfZRMSDDxA0t6R7lKxSjoPwNd_tUb6ORJw/s320/mind+the+gap.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br />There is no shortage of gaps in politics in
Newfoundland and Labrador.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Regular readers will be familiar with the <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/search?q=credibility+gap" target="_blank">Credibility Gap.</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s the space between what a
politician says and what the politician does.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Marketers forget that when it comes to reputation and
hence lasting, reliable political support, actions speak far louder than words.
They talk about brands and branding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
you spend any time digging into brands and branding you will find really vague
definitions that quickly lead you to the revelation that brands are for
marketing what dependency theory and neo-liberalism are for left-wing
academics.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">True in civilian marketing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Doubly true in political marketing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The gap between words and actions may not turn up
right away but it does have an impact.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So take a look at the end of four months of Andrew Furey’s
premiership at the number of times he has talked about “big, bold ideas”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now looked at his actions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Nothing big or bold about them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And the ideas are very familiar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pour government money into this hole or
that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hold a government-issue dog and
pony show to watch the politicians pouring public money into the hole.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Rinse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Repeat.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Furey is new.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">He has time to close the gap.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But he has to close the gap.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Leaving a gap killed Dwight Ball.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Spring 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ed Martin.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The gap between what Dwight Ball said – I did not
approve his severance – and what the records showed (yeah, he did) was so
obvious only Dwight couldn’t see it while he was screaming at people.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGLdMhOd_gmHf-ruDUxrRPTnYj-v-JE2dlIqGW-pQLPPvttcJBkr3B7VZxmY3R29UU4PeIdaS9iMGlOkYx8OXiNc1sI3Q26PVL5k3YkPtHgRjWpeATdvRgtvcGCxGh_X-g9cwANA/s320/Anger+Ball.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGLdMhOd_gmHf-ruDUxrRPTnYj-v-JE2dlIqGW-pQLPPvttcJBkr3B7VZxmY3R29UU4PeIdaS9iMGlOkYx8OXiNc1sI3Q26PVL5k3YkPtHgRjWpeATdvRgtvcGCxGh_X-g9cwANA/s0/Anger+Ball.jpg" /></a></div>Literally screaming at people.<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Dwight had a year to fix things.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">He didn’t.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">He died. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Not right away.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But eventually.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Slowly.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Zombie Dwight wandered the political landscape for
four more years before they finally pried his fingers off the door-jams. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">He is still shuffling around Twitter drooling platitudes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">He did a lot of political damage in the meantime.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Like rate mitigation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Enormous gap.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Promise after promise and yet zero delivery.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Repeat Furey version came just before Christmas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Like <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/12/all-around-in-circles-nlpoli.html">we
told you</a> last week after the latest Mega-Announcement of Impending Joyfulness</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">©</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, “</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">people have heard it all
before. They tune out the blah blah blah within 24 hours, at the
most. Most pay it no heed.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Now we have
proof.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">NTV Question
of the week found that 53% of respondents were splindifferent about the splendiferousness
of the news.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not gonna make a difference
to their power bills. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Over at VOCM,
their Question of the Day found two thirds of respondents felt the same way as
the ones over at NTV.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">People have
not only tuned out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They don’t seem to
have much confidence in the government coming up with a solution to the
impending electricity rate disaster.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Consider
this a big gap with those other polls that show people very satisfied with the
provincial government or extremely supportive of the governing Liberals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Doesn’t mean the Liberals will lose the next
election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just consider the rate
mitigation poll results – more than half don’t think the most recent
announcement will do anything – as a softness in those expressions of love for
the crowd currently running the place.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Kinda gap
that gave Dwight Ball a minority government when all the polls heading into the
election in 2019 said a comfortable majority.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Not
something the Liberals these days cannot change but they have to see it as an
issue in order to address it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There are
more gaps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not the one between the
expectation of the folks who own the mall when they announced The Gap was
coming back and the people who yawned when they heard about it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Real gaps. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Like the one
between the opposition parties that won’t threaten an election, which is the
one thing they have to keep a minority government on track or willing to bend
to the opposition will. Oh jeeebus, they cried in unison, in the last session
of the House, do what you want.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We won’t
bring down the government.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Normally,
there’d be an election coming so the governing minority crowd could get some
certainty.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Everyone
expects an election soon, but the truth is the Liberals could easily ride this
one out for another two or three years and do what they want in the meantime.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There are
more gaps. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Like the one
between what the government takes in from taxes and what it spends.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There’s a
related gap between what the politicians know they need to do about the deficit
and what the public will support.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Politicians
have been promising to do something about the deficit since 2015, at least, and
every year they have failed to deliver.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They *talk* about doing something but they *do* nothing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Money from
Ottawa is a favourite promise.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Any day now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And any day then,
nothing shows up.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But it is
not the only promise of miracle cures from Ottawa.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2020/exec/1022n02/">latest one</a> is a
gaggle of folks fixing government spending problems, diversifying the economy,
and curing cancer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">One of those
might be a rumour.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But here’s
the thing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Maybe at the
end of February, The Team might not deliver on the promise of a draft plan.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Then at the
end of April, there might not be a final version of the draft plan the
politicians can set working with a mouse click.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There will
be something but not a fold-out, self-implementing cure-all.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No five-minutes-to-the-end-of-the-episode
miracle wrap-up to every loose end that people are expecting.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Just a bunch
of good ideas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That’ll be a
gap, for sure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And then
there’s the other bunch working on the “social determinants of health” strategic
strategy healthy health plan thingy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s
another Ghost of Gap Yet to Come.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Anyone
looking for a clean ending to this tale will be disappointed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a province, after all, that reputedly
is obsessed with its own history.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet no one
seems to remember what actually happened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">They know
fantasy versions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Completely made-up
stuff.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fairy tales of things that
happened within the lives of people who are teenagers today.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">These people
don’t see gaps.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Unfortunately,
that’s not the same as minding them.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">-srbp-</span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-27217341393352147142020-12-21T07:00:00.082-03:302020-12-21T09:05:00.360-03:30An evidence-based Alert system #nlpoli<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0Ih3cH8wVLl563aVf4xSWIvGLtCltSvw8CP1-KiKWytORVZQwAjL_uJ-tzmH7ykVrkvex7ajJsPCQyXBLCc9MEAVyPQNw8ANKJxu-P4Z2G807wSyuP7KkNHqRioNIg1oa7teM7w/s505/Sample+public+wallet+card.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="504" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0Ih3cH8wVLl563aVf4xSWIvGLtCltSvw8CP1-KiKWytORVZQwAjL_uJ-tzmH7ykVrkvex7ajJsPCQyXBLCc9MEAVyPQNw8ANKJxu-P4Z2G807wSyuP7KkNHqRioNIg1oa7teM7w/s320/Sample+public+wallet+card.png" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Communication remains the single biggest chronic
failure of the province’s COVID-19 response.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As regular readers of these e-scribbles know, that
means it is really a management problem.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Government officials have a hard time explaining
things clearly because they do not have a clear idea of what they are
doing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">You can see this problem most clearly in the “Alert”
system announced last spring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many countries,
states, and even cities use alert systems like this for emergencies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are easy to understand – when they are
properly put together – and all the people who need to act can know what to do,
when to do it, and why they are doing it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the case of a pandemic alert system, people reading
it should be able to see what types of restrictions went with what level of
risk. There’s an internal logic to the system:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>a low risk goes with very low restrictions or rules. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Newfoundland
and Labrador, the Alert system fails all the basics of a functional Alert
system. That’s because it was never
intended to be a proper staged system for easing or increasing restrictions in
responses to changes in the risk of COVID.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Chief Medical Officer cobbled it together in response to a political
demand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span></span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a> <o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That’s why it came with an increase in restrictions,
just like we got to wear masks – a higher level of restriction – just because
the government created the regional “bubble” and among provinces with the same
extremely low incidence of disease.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">You can also see this in the way the CMO implemented
the system, something SRBP has pointed out before. We changed alert levels at
arbitrary times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Changes are supposed to
come in response to risk. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Remember, back
in April, when it was obvious the number of cases was dropping and the risk was
soon at zero, the health minister’s comment was that we needed to *increase*
restrictions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That’s just absurd.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And it is also confirmation the provincial alert
system - like the government response - is not based on evidence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That will become clear in a second but if you want to
see the failure of the existing Alert system look at events last month when the
number of local cases started into climb.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Three examples:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">First, ordinary citizens could not tell if what happened
would cause the Chief Medical Officer to increase the Alert level. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As a result – and second - in three communities,
people panicked, kept their kids home from schools, and took arbitrary
measures.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Third, when asked about moving from one alert level to
the next, the Chief Medical Officer said she did not know what it would
take.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If you want to see what a proper alert system looks
like, take a look at <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/about-the-alert-system/#alert-level-1-%E2%80%94-prepare">New
Zealand</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Alert Level 1 in New Zealand is called “Prepare”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It shows a Risk Assessment with three indicators:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">COVID-19 is uncontrolled overseas.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Sporadic imported cases.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Isolated local transmission could be
occurring in New Zealand.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul><!--[if !supportLists]--><p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s
pretty much the situation in Newfoundland and Labrador right now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And here are
the rules or restrictions that go with that level:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Border entry measures to minimise
risk of importing COVID-19 cases.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Intensive testing for COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Rapid contact tracing of any positive
case.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Self-isolation and quarantine
required.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Schools and workplaces open, and
legally must operate safely.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No restrictions on personal movement
but people are encouraged to maintain a record of where they have been.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No restrictions on gatherings but
organisers encouraged to maintain records to enable contact tracing.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Stay home if you’re sick, report
flu-like symptoms.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Wash and dry hands, cough into elbow,
do not touch your face.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No restrictions on domestic transport
— avoid public transport or travel if sick.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No restrictions on workplaces or
services but they are encouraged to maintain records to enable contact tracing.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">QR codes issued by the NZ Government
legally must be displayed in workplaces and on public transport to enable use
of the NZ COVID Tracer app for contact tracing.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul><!--[if !supportLists]--><p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Here’s the
indication for the next level, called “Reduce”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Limited community transmission could
be occurring.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Active clusters in more than 1
region.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul><!--[if !supportLists]--><p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -0.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">We have no
community transmission. Every case seen since May is a traveler or is, at most,
no more than one person removed from a traveler. Calling them active clusters
would be a stretch since they are contained so quickly and there is no or
virtually no transmission beyond a single household. Use the <a href="https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf">World
Health Organization</a> definitions to see how international experts classify
these things.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If we used
the New Zealand system in Newfoundland and Labrador, we’d be at Alert Level
1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No masks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No restrictions on gathering sizes. No
restrictions on work sites.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Compare that
to what is going on here.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If you look
at our level of restrictions and line it up with the New Zealand system, we’d be
at Level 3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s where you find recommended
masks (we have mandatory masks), limitations on workplaces and gatherings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are some variations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The New Zealand system makes a big jump between
Level 2 and Level 3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if you consider
how easily we have closed schools and post-secondary sites, and the
restrictions on schools, we are arguably a more intense version of Level 3.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://preventepidemics.org/covid19/resources/levels/">preventepidemics.org</a>
has a model system that is very similar to the one used in New Zealand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their website notes that “Alert-level systems
provide a framework to support clear decision-making, improve accountability,
and communicate with the public to increase healthy behavior change.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><blockquote><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“Risk
alert-level systems communicate visually the level of health risk and indicate
what measures should be taken at each level to maximize safety. In the highest
alert stage, there may be lockdowns that require people to stay home and
closures of schools, places of worship and nonessential businesses. As the
level of alert is reduced, a stepwise lessening of these restrictions is
possible.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">When done
well, risk alert-level systems promote transparency, accountability, and clear
communication with the public.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Transparency:
Data supporting each level of the risk alert system should be publicly
available.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Accountability:
Evidence-based guidance for each level allows governments, communities, and
individuals to assume responsibility for their actions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Clear
communication with the public: Outlining behaviors for each level and giving
the public advance notice of a change in level can improve protective actions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Importance
of clear risk communication<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Risk
communication can help achieve widespread behavior change necessary in crisis
response, but it must be done well to be effective. If the public perceives a
lack of consistency, competence, objectivity, empathy, sincerity, or
transparency the result can be distrust and fear. Conversely, evidence suggests
that when the public senses that a response has these positive characteristics,
when information is easily understood and communicated through trusted and
accessible channels, and when the necessary services are available, people are
able to make informed choices, protect themselves, and heed recommended
practices.</span></p></blockquote>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This site is
worth checking out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It includes a
comparison of several alert systems, samples of public communication flyers, and
a set of downloads that outline a comprehensive, rational alert system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the <a href="https://preventepidemics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Annex-1_COVID-19-alert-level-system-in-resource-constrained-settings_FINAL.pdf">first
page</a> of a nine-page model.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1DXS2FnoBEGJHWqtagdQg0WHlUGZSkOhW2LZBEznthb3W0WHUjpalFfNa-r6BtH860J_FGyUTKyCer9vykkkuVq_R6hB4HVUtTb5xB6V2_OfVeWbaY9xfFMeK6wMWbQWVxsZj7A/s1256/Step+1+-+.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1256" height="375" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1DXS2FnoBEGJHWqtagdQg0WHlUGZSkOhW2LZBEznthb3W0WHUjpalFfNa-r6BtH860J_FGyUTKyCer9vykkkuVq_R6hB4HVUtTb5xB6V2_OfVeWbaY9xfFMeK6wMWbQWVxsZj7A/w576-h375/Step+1+-+.png" width="576" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Even with the start of vaccine distribution, we are likely to be in some form of a COVID alert system for months or years to come. The appearance of a new strain in England this past week raises the spectre of just such an eventuality. <div><br /><div>Politically, it is attractive to herald the arrival of a vaccine as the beginning of the end. It wasn't D-Day. Prudence would suggest that the start of vaccine distribution was closer to the Allied invasion of North Africa and successes in the battle of Egypt against Erwin Rommel's <i>Afrika Korps</i>.</div><div><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Winston Churchill said at the time: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“This is not
the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end
of the beginning.”</span></div></div><div><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That's why the provincial government would be well-advised to devote some time and resources to developing a proper alert system. We don't need more of the hysteria that has gripped communities like Deer Lake and Harbour Breton that sap health and other resources as a result. It is not fair to the people in those communities. They and their children suffer. Businesses suffer. Rotational workers suffer from the busy-bodies who have caused police investigations of more than 6,500 complaints with only five of them having some merit. It is all avoidable.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Thrice-weekly dog and pony shows will not fix the problem. It requires nothing bigger or bolder than developing a coherent alert system based on evidence.</span></div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;">-srbp-</div>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-30738136697892222522020-12-18T07:00:00.064-03:302020-12-29T22:42:28.231-03:30All around in circles 2 #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxrH-5hLyJif2kIYRTxafT-lI96bj1y8WZAbdJzkzwPAYce_bGCdvo6tC7IZXbdyhC1CXRE03nHJOYcJYbfndYiga4UMvqec1SAfZUQoib4c9IktSwIFXHAZwnQLCDtGv-V09Tkg/s300/MF+talks.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="185" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxrH-5hLyJif2kIYRTxafT-lI96bj1y8WZAbdJzkzwPAYce_bGCdvo6tC7IZXbdyhC1CXRE03nHJOYcJYbfndYiga4UMvqec1SAfZUQoib4c9IktSwIFXHAZwnQLCDtGv-V09Tkg/s0/MF+talks.png" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">December 17 is an auspicious day in Muskrat Falls
history.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That was the <a href="https://www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/speeches/2012/1217s01.htm">date
in 2012</a> when Kathy Dunderdale stood in front of a group of cheering
supporters of the ludicrous megaproject and proclaimed that the government had
formally approved its construction.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“It all
begins here!” she shouted to the overjoyed throng. ““It all begins now!”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It didn’t start
there of course.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Kathy had
stood with Danny Williams two years earlier - 18 November to be precise - and
announced a deal to build Muskrat Falls, the project the media hailed as the
fulfillment of a dream to build the Lower Churchill and break the stranglehold
Quebec had over our province.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That was a
lie, to be sure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But still the reporters parroted
Williams’ and Dunderdale’s lines just as they had 18 months before that - in
April 2009 - when Williams said a deal to sell Churchill Falls electricity to
Emera through Quebec had broken the stranglehold.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Arguably, though, Muskrat Falls started in May 2006 when
Williams announced the province would go it alone to build the Lower Churchill.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Clerk of the Executive Council at the time emailed
the finance deputy minister and asked if anyone had checked with the deputy to
see if the province could afford it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
got no reply.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In April 2010, when a gaggle of politicians,
bureaucrats, and Nalcor thugs decided to go ahead with Muskrat Falls first,
they figured the local ratepayers and taxpayers would foot the entire bill out
of their electricity rates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">By November 2010, when Williams announced the crowning
achievement of his career, the cost of the project had grown to the point that
the impact on electricity prices would make people unhappy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2010/11/doubling-electricity-rates-for-lower.html">SRBP
pointed out</a> at the time the price would double from what it then was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And so the Muskrateers started to figure ways to lower
the sticker shock – mitigate the initial rates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Every single Premier since Danny Williams has promised
to mitigate the project’s impact on rates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">On December 17, 2020, eight years to the day after Dunderdale
whooped it up, Premier Andrew Furey became the latest one to promise rate mitigation.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Furey made the pledge in a bizarre media circus that
included a guest appearance by the Prime Minister, who delivered most of his
remarks in French at the beginning, followed later by a technical briefing for
media, and then another media availability mid-day. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There’d been no hype
beforehand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No strategic leaks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No talking points slipped to a friendly
reporter to recite. Usually the tech briefings come before an
announcement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the scrum right after
featuring all the people involved.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But that didn’t happen this time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In fact, the whole thing seemed wildly over-blown given there
were only three kernels of hard news in the <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2020/exec/1217n02/">release</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">And they were small. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Procedural.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The federal government had finally gotten around to
appointing someone to head their negotiations in the latest round of federal-provincial
talks on rate mitigation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That was one.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The feds agreed to amend the date by which Nalcor had
to finish the project under the second federal loan guarantee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Used to be end of February 2021, with a
possible six-month extension to the end of September. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now it will be end of November 2021, with a six-month
option that would take things out to the end of April 2022.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That was two.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And the feds had also waived the requirement in the <a href="https://muskratfalls.nalcorenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/FLG2-Agreement-Executed.pdf">second
federal loan guarantee</a> for payments in the sinking fund, that had been due
01 December 2020, and Cost Over-Run Escrow Account or COREA, that had been due
on December 13.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That was three.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Otherwise the news was, as CBC <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/muskrat-falls-newser-dec-17-1.5845171">described
it, </a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that the two governments were starting
talks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were aiming for an outline agreement
by the spring and then a final deal by the time Nalcor commissioned the
project.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now the CBC reporter who wrote that story can be
forgiven if that was a mistaken interpretation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There were more than a few factual errors in that story, after all, including
the total cost of the project and the impact of a previous discussion about
federal restructuring of the Muskrat Falls debt.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But in many respects, today’s announcement that the
feds had sent someone new to lead their side of the talks was the same as the
provincial sudden announcement at the end of September that Brendan Paddick would
lead a renewed provincial team with some different mandate than anything
previously talked about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So yeah, it’s a restart to talks that have dragged on through
<a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/01/mitigating-muskrat-falls-ron-harry-and.html">promise
after promise</a> after <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/no-magical-solution-to-muskrat-falls-debt-1.4796561">laughable
by-election</a> announcement without any result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What Furey described as a tight timeline is
not a virtue:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it is borne of the failure
of everything until now to even describe what they were aiming to accomplish, forget actually delivering.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">“</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There is a deadline set for reaching an agreement to restructure the
project,” CBC’s Peter Cowan tweeted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“It
will happen by the time Muskrat Falls is commissioned.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This is a
penetrating insight into the obvious. This is also inadvertent humour at its
finest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In order to stop rates from
doubling, the two governments *have no choice* but finish a deal by the time
the project is in service. Otherwise, the federal loan guarantee from 2013
makes the original Williams commitment hard and fast to collect all the money
needed from electricity rates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">T</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">he
new negotiating timeline is only feasible, of course, because Nalcor has been
so utterly incompetent that they will likely struggle to finish building the
project by even the extended September 2021 deadline in FLG2. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This information has been out there since earlier this
year, by the way. Most people in the province wouldn’t know that since neither
Nalcor nor the politicians think it is important to tell people things about
Muskrat Falls any more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you don’t check
the <a href="http://www.pub.nf.ca/applications/NLH2018ReliabilityAdequacy/correspondence/From%20NLH%20-%20Hydros%20Monthly%20Status%20Report%20-%20Schedule%20for%20the%20LIL%20in%20response%20to%20the%20Boards%20November%2021,%202019%20correspondence%20-%202020-12-03.PDF">PUB
website</a>, <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/mfoversight/reports/">the oversight
committee reports</a>, or read this blog, you wouldn’t have known that.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But yeah, Nalcor currently doesn’t expect to get the
power plant finished until the end of September 2021.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All sorts of ongoing issues – not the least
of which is COVID – could hang things up again and drive costs up besides.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">When it comes to rate mitigation, one of the problems
has been deciding what it means.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SRBP
noted before that the approach Dwight’s crowd was taking – which is the same as
everyone else’s before and apparently since – <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/04/restoring-power-mitigating-impacts-of.html">just
wouldn’t work</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Insistence today by both governments that “everything is
on the table” in the hunt for a way to mitigate rates only confirms they are
still no further ahead. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everything isn’t
on the table, really. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They just have no
idea how to get where they want to go.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
has only taken the Liberal administration of first Dwight Ball and now Andrew
Furey five years to figure out, incidentally.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Five
years and they are still at the beginning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Meanwhile, when someone talks about the federal
government taking an equity stake or about building Gull Island, we should just
shudder. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A federal equity share in Muskrat Falls doesn’t materially
change anything when it comes to who pays for the thing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Building Gull Island is just nuts. The electricity
would be so expensive, the market just will not buy it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s why Danny and his gang opted in April
2010 to build the little dam first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gull
was too expensive a decade ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
financials are no better today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
markets are no less favourable. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And when anyone talks about the Atlantic Loop, just
remember that Hydro-Quebec has already <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-hydro-quebec-turns-down-subsidies/">balked
at it.</a> They are worried – quite rightly – that federal subsidies would
create problems for exports into the American market. They prefer provincially owned lines, a position they have maintained since 1964 back when Newfoundland believed the same thing.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Since the Atlantic Loop
was basically tailor-made to absorb HQ’s large pile of surplus electricity in
the first place, their rejection of the idea means that the idea itself is
badly, if not fatally, flawed. We might get lett holding another mess. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Hydro-Quebec has experience in American
markets.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">We’d be well-advised to take
their opinion seriously since access to American markets remains part of the Labrador hydro dream. We probably won't since for them, hydro is business. For us, it is an obsession, a kind of psychiatric disorder.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For all the political energy that went into Thursday’s
dog and pony show, the political impact will be the same on any election as if
they had made no announcement at all or relegated it to the simple couple of
paragraphs in a news release it deserved. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Aside from the fact it is a week before Christmas, the
reason this will be a political wash is that for a decade, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians
have lived with the spectre that when Muskrat Falls finished, their electricity
prices would double.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And for that same
decade, they have heard promise after promise after ludicrous by-election
announcement after newser announcing the start of talks with Ottawa, all without
any sign of progress delivering what was promised. Thursday’s episode was – what? - the third such
talks-are-starting newser in the past 18 months alone. Take that as a bad omen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">People have heard it all before.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">They tune out the blah blah blah within 24 hours, at
the most.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Most pay it no heed.</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This is something the marketers miss. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Politicians, on the other hand, cannot afford to forget that a</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">ctions speak louder than words.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">After a while, all the words in the world, even
the ones that get you a spot on the news for 24 hours, don’t erase the failure
to deliver what you and all your predecessors have been promising for a decade.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That’s what voters will remember.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">-srbp-<o:p></o:p></span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-16816168762345737132020-12-07T07:00:00.002-03:302021-04-26T16:36:37.085-02:30The Good Old Days #nlpoli<p><br /></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6hSni7ugPvz6B0YozIBhz1XfKEg_WxoeX8lV3rtZf9HYXri_78_lAjSLnZfhdlFet-gnQqhudA_S7qNhyphenhyphenLMJ1sOXLwD_FijVoqhwQjChke341vrFU3R9SfNFOJNJcwa_U3M_YTQ/s499/Williams+hagiography.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="333" data-original-width="499" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6hSni7ugPvz6B0YozIBhz1XfKEg_WxoeX8lV3rtZf9HYXri_78_lAjSLnZfhdlFet-gnQqhudA_S7qNhyphenhyphenLMJ1sOXLwD_FijVoqhwQjChke341vrFU3R9SfNFOJNJcwa_U3M_YTQ/w415-h277/Williams+hagiography.jpg" width="415" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table>Danny
Williams made the news last week.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Williams
was locked in a battle with St. John’s city hall over whether or not Williams
could put a big Christmas tree in a round-about in his development at Galway.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">No one in
the local news media noticed, though, that Thursday was the 10<sup>th</sup>
anniversary of Williams departure from the Premier’s Office.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Back then,
they couldn’t say enough good about him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><i>The Telegram</i> praised Williams as “The Fighter” – the title of the
paper’s editorial the day after he announced he’d be leaving office – “a man of
the people” whose popularity rating “hovered around 80%.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That was true. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Williams
*was* an incredibly popular politician.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">No question.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">After <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2014/11/the-ego-mentary-nlpoli.html">the
2007 general election</a>, Williams told Rex Murphy – then working for CBC –
that he believed that </span>“I believe in my heart and soul that I embody the
heart and soul of Newfoundland and Labrador.” That's less absurd that it sounds, even if one can shake off the egomania that underpins it. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Craig Welsh best summed up the relationship between Williams
and the public, including the news media, during the controversy over his trip
to the United States for heart surgery in early 2010.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The “optics are terrible, however Williams is wealthy enough
and beloved enough in the province that he can get away with doing it,” Welsh
wrote on his blog, <i><a href="http://towniebastard.blogspot.com/2010/02/into-fire.html">townie bastard</a></i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the comments, he added this explanation:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><blockquote>what I mean by "he can get away with doing it" is
that the premier's popularity is such that he could strangle a baby in the
middle of the Avalon Mall parking lot with the assembled provincial media in attendance
and there would be people that would say the baby had it coming.</blockquote><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Williams worked hard for his popularity and every sector of
society was willing to lend a hand. The news media co-operated from the outset
to shape and sustain the manufactured image of Williams created by his
publicity machine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reporters and editors
presented Williams’ view of the world on any issue, without questioning
it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The public enthusiastically lapped it up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The more ardent believers, that is, the
members of Williams’ personality cult - some of whom worked in local newsrooms
- attacked those who dared question Williams’ view. Their message was
simple:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He’s right because he’s popular
and popular because he is right” and for most in the province that was good
enough. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">No sector of society, even the opposition political parties
dared to question anything Williams and the Conservatives did or said while he
was in office. They applauded the overspending and they supported Muskrat Falls
a decade ago. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">As SRBP noted a
decade ago, Williams’ political genius was in creating and sustaining a level
of sycophancy across the population that still chills to the core those
handful of us who were not willing participants in it. T</span>hat Williams was
able to spread a cult of absurdity not only within Newfoundland and Labrador
but across Canada amongst business, academic, editorial and political leaders at
the start of the 21st century is truly astounding. Donald Trump could
only dream of such a thing.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A decade later, what we should remember in Newfoundland and
Labrador is not that our current financial problems in the province are the
result of decisions taken while Danny Williams was Premier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It wasn’t Danny’s fault. Williams did not do anything by
himself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had supporters, helpers, and
enablers who supported the program of overspending and the pursuit of
insane megaprojects while he was in office and who have continued it since he left. <o:p></o:p></p>
Remember *that*.<br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">-srbp-</p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-39820297377836032582020-11-30T07:00:00.025-03:302020-11-30T08:59:14.532-03:30Worry, fear, and the Zero Risk Bias #nlpoli<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i></i></span></p><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i> Accepting that life is all about risk is the first cognitive step.</i></span></p><p style="text-align: right;">Mark Kingwell, <i><a href="http://biblioasis.com/shop/new-release/on-risk/" target="_blank">On Risk </a></i>(2020)</p><p></p></blockquote><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj24zO49cbm_RqOI5oltX90j5AmhQjO1whl8hwb1YfFAUFU0if3L-hw3suHhdvr-jrbGK2vUOxClhmv4F6cINDK7oy0GhIqz4Reda24J8HkVftm6JEp58Pn7fBju8JodXvxYCj4ZA/s388/worry.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="388" data-original-width="377" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj24zO49cbm_RqOI5oltX90j5AmhQjO1whl8hwb1YfFAUFU0if3L-hw3suHhdvr-jrbGK2vUOxClhmv4F6cINDK7oy0GhIqz4Reda24J8HkVftm6JEp58Pn7fBju8JodXvxYCj4ZA/w194-h200/worry.jpg" width="194" /></a></div>T<span style="font-size: 12pt;">he reporter just wanted to confirm how many active
cases there were in the province.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><p></p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The question at last Monday’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h34ij2rEuVg&t=564s" target="_blank">news conference</a>
was simple enough. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s a figure
the Chief Medical Officer’s staff releases every day when they update the
government’s COVID 19 page.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Dr. Janice Fitzgerald chuckled.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">She didn’t know.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And what’s more, it’s not a number people in public
health pay attention to, according to Fitzgerald.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">People talk about it publicly, Fitzgerald said, but what
public health is “worried about” are “the cases we don’t know about.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">She said the same thing a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Clv2zmxZTNw">couple of days</a> later at
the next news conference that started with her rattling off the total number of
cases since March, the number recovered, and the number of active cases.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So if Fitzgerald worries - her word - about unknown
cases and things like active cases don’t bother her, then why does she talk
about them?<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Anyone involved in any planning, including emergency
response has to be aware of the possibility that something will happen that no
one anticipated.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMOtX-QfvovRzjbi4ZhklBe7o1WHF-rWm0EdHvnlVrIfaPs8tL0_jJ13aetsFi9r7KLeoug2DKtX28sI-8WfQeYhCI6chwh3HL5h5fA12d4yL2pIHiK4W5snK2roIf7oKKSNFTZA/s524/4+q+risk+classification.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMOtX-QfvovRzjbi4ZhklBe7o1WHF-rWm0EdHvnlVrIfaPs8tL0_jJ13aetsFi9r7KLeoug2DKtX28sI-8WfQeYhCI6chwh3HL5h5fA12d4yL2pIHiK4W5snK2roIf7oKKSNFTZA/s320/4+q+risk+classification.png" width="320" /></a></div><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Former American defence secretary Donald
Rumsfeld famously talked to reporters one day about things they knew they didn’t
know but also about the unknown unknowns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>People snickered but the idea is pretty simple:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>unknown unknowns That’s the stuff that he and
other officials weren’t even aware existed.<o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p>Here’s a little chart if it helps you see what we are
talking about.<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">To put it another way, what we are talking about here
is risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Managing risk is a key part of
any plan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You have to give some
attention to information you don’t have or events that may occur that will
hinder or even stop you from achieving success in your plan.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Any good planner will make allowance for stuff popping
up out of nowhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Call it a Plan
B.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Call it what you want.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is what you do if one of these unforeseen events pop
up.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now think about the provincial government’s COVID
response in light of that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From the
outset of the pandemic, Fitzgerald has had a system in place to identify cases,
isolate them, trace their contacts, and – in the process – contain the spread
of the disease.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The goal is supposed to
be containing the spread of the disease so that:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: left; text-indent: -18pt;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-indent: -18pt;">lots of people don’t die, and</span></li><li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-indent: -18pt;"> lots of people sick with COVID don't block off the health care system and make it almost impossible to treat patients with COVID and everyone else besides.</span></li></ul><!--[if !supportLists]--><p></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Restrictions are not supposed to interfere with normal
life beyond what is needed to contain the spread of the disease.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s the premise of the mitigation or containment
strategy, as described at the out of the pandemic by scientists at the Imperial
College, London. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">SRBP has written about it <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/05/fighting-boogeyman-with-dwight-john-and.html">before,</a>
particularly to notice how far away from the containment strategy Fitzgerald’s
approach has been.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What we’ve actually
been doing is piling on restrictions on everyday life beyond what is indicated
by the actual state of the disease in Newfoundland and Labrador. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Back in April, government officials saw the same thing
that SRBP saw.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They circulated a slide
deck that showed a decline in the number of cases. On April 13<sup>th,</sup> a
post here noted that the number of active cases was declining and would likely
hit zero by the end of the month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It did.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But when CBC’s Peter Cowan asked about it, health
minister John Haggie said something that was striking at the time and remains
so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SRBP described it in a post called “<a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-facts-of-case-nlpoli.html">The
facts of the case</a>”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“Regardless of what the numbers show,” Haggie said, “we
cannot relax physical distancing. The only question in my mind is whether we
need to be even more strict or even more restrictive.”.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Go back to what Fitzgerald said last week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> S</span>he is “worried” about the cases she does not
know about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That isn’t about the balanced approach to risk
discussed above. Literally every single case is one that public health
officials do not know about until someone turns up sick and reports for
testing. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She does not know about any of
them beforehand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s exactly how this
sort of things works.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Fitzgerald has is a system that handles cases when
they turn up. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It works.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The facts of the case are unmistakable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are not debatable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The system works so well that every single
case that arrived in the province from outside has been identified and
contained.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If, by some bizarre and
freakish occurrence there is a pandemic raging undetected, then the cases are
so novel and so utterly mild that they are of no consequence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So, there is nothing to worry about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And yet Fitzgerald, and presumably other senior
officials, *are* worried.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That worry - an abnormal and excessive fear - is
reflected in what they do and say.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
worry is why John Haggie said back in April that the facts be damned, he was
pondering greater and greater restrictions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That excessive and abnormal fear is why last week Fitzgerald
and her associates also changed their testing rules.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Until now, government has been scrupulous
about insisting that only those who are sick need get tested.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They’ve also resisted calls for everyone to
be tested. That simply doesn’t work in identifying people unless they are
sick at precisely the time they are tested.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>More often than not people aren’t sick when they travel so lots get missed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yet, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/covid-nl-nov-24-1.5814206">last
week,</a> the provincial government asked people who had merely been in Halifax
in the previous two weeks to get tested.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Didn’t have to be sick.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That excessive and abnormal fear is why Fitzgerald,
Haggie, and Premier Andrew Furey decided to hold three news briefings each week
instead of the usual one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There’s been
an increase in the number of active cases but otherwise everything is under
control.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Holding the extra news
conferences, reinstating the three-party meetings about COVID, and letting
parents shut down schools in Deer Lake contradict the message the same three
doctors have been giving that everything is okay.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The biggest signal of Fitzgerald’s abnormal and
excessive worry is her encouragement for people to stay home and stay away from
one another.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She has now taken to
telling stores to cut the number of people in their businesses, shut their
doors even and go to curbside delivery, and generally to go back to what they
were doing in April. This is nothing like April.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Fitzgerald and
Haggie have gone back to the fear-mongering screams about the holidays as
well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fitzgerald’s warning that
Christmas could be a “perfect storm” is reminiscent of Haggie’s hectoring and
scolding over Easter and Victoria Day even though nothing came of any of it. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">What we are seeing here is called Zero Risk Bias.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It’s a decision-making fallacy that
exaggerates the normal human instinct to avoid risk.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">People who succumb to Zero Risk Bias will tend
to favour the complete elimination of risk in one part (zero cases = zero risk)
rather than accept a lower overall risk or indeed even accept any risk at all.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We’ve seen the Zero Risk Bias repeatedly in the way
that Haggie and Fitzgerald talk about the number of active cases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fitzgerald does pay attention to them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are a sign of failure, apparently, since
she speaks very happily when the numbers go down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She and Haggie are happiest when there are no
cases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And when there is one, they tut
and fret.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the number grows, they
pile on the restrictions or at least threaten to do so, as they have done this
past week.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Dwight Ball is gone but Andrew Furey has now been
sucked into the same headspace Ball used to occupy for these COVID shows. Last
week, Furey started off Monday’s news conference with a sombre announcement
about travelers from Nova Scotia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He looked
at the camera and read a Ballish pile of cliché as if he trained at the feet of
Bill Shatner and Lorne Green.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For those
who don’t know, Green spent the Second World War as a CBC announcer and earned
the nickname “The Voice of Doom” for the way his bass-baritone reverberated
with the bad news of the early years of the war.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What he actually announced was modest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People from the Maritimes just had to hole-up
somewhere for a couple of weeks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the
two-day warning of the newser and Furey’s melodramatic performance made people
think something far worse happened. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Furey, Fitzgerald, and Haggie do not use language
precisely, except when it suits them. That's another problem. “</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">We have said all along, “Haggie said last Friday, “that Dr.
Fitzgerald's recommendations will be based on evidence, not decisions that are
made arbitrarily.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Said it, yes but, as
Haggie himself said in April, he felt things should happen regardless of the
numbers. Numbers are facts and evidence.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">So which is it, John?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">When CBC’s
Peter Cowan asked Furey last week about the science behind the Nova Scotia
travel restriction, Furey fluffed.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He
just said it was a “balanced” approach.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> He couldn't point to scientific evidence to justify the added measure. By contrast, </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Cowan prefaced his question by noticing the similar infection rates
across the Atlantic provinces.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">He could
have added, just as easily, that the available data shows that across Atlantic
Canada the positivity rate – the number of tests turning up positive for COVID
is – quite literally </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">- a fraction of
that found in Ontario, Quebec, BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And, as Cowan
noted on Twitter Friday, Fitzgerald herself likes to use contradictory
reasoning when answering different questions. “Dr. Janice Fitzgerald has said
we need a travel ban because some people don't follow quarantine rules, but
today said we don't need point of entry testing, there's no benefit because
everyone should just follow quarantine rules.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There is no
travel ban, of course.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fitzgerald and
others call it a travel ban but that only applies to non-residents who have no
ties of blood or previous residency to the province.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are not allowed to come here, full stop.
The people who cannot be trusted to obey the rules are not from here,
apparently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The locals can come and go,
only having to isolate on return.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
are not barred from travel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And any of
them wanting to come home for Christmas can do so, without a worry from Fitzgerald
and her worriers as long as they stay to themselves for a couple of weeks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And perhaps
in one of the most persistently deceptive ways that Fitzgerald speaks, there is
her constant references to the fact there has been “no widespread community
transmission” of COVID in Newfoundland and Labrador.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is not a deliberate deceit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fitzgerald seems to be reflecting her Zero
Risk Bias.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Objectively, as she knows,
there has been no community transmission whatsoever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the public health world, community
transmission cannot be tied back to a known source.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> It has a very specific meaning. </span>In the current case, it would be travel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The facts are every single case in this
province – except for a few false positives – can be traced to an external
source.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There is *no* community transmission.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The deception
comes from using the word “widespread” and the phrase community transmission
together.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Widespread” implies there had
been community transmission.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The correct
phrase, based on evidence, is that there had been none.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Zero community transmission.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That
imprecise use of precise words has led people to think community is a synonym
for "local".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They think people who got
COVID from a traveler is community transmission and so they react
appropriately. They get the message of fear and worry that runs through every
government utterance and action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any
case is bad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only zero cases is a good
state.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The “quiet” days of COVID as
Furey called them last week are where we want to be.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s why
people ostracize anyone suspected of having COVID.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is why the busybodies call the police on a
rotational worker for doing nothing more than being on the wrong side of his
threshold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There have been literally
thousands of these busybody reports to police and health authorities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>None of them, as best we know, were anything more
than some scumbag peeking out from behind a curtain and ratting out an innocent
neighbour. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It is why
people keep their kids home from school as well, despite the lack of a genuine
risk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is also why the teachers are
stressed to an absurd level and their union last week called for every
precaution short of insisting everyone wear a hazmat suit in every school
across the province.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">All this fear and worry is not free.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Janice Fitzgerald admitted her
unconstitutional travel order was based on false accusations about tourists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/rotational-workers-newfoundland-labrador-covid-19-1.5812552">Rotational
workers</a> suffer the stress and harassment of their neighbours. People are
getting sicker from non-COVID illness either because they cannot get access to
care or are too afraid to go out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some
have died.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Others, many more thousands of others, are suffering
the <a href="http://ntv.ca/psychologist-warns-of-enormous-wave-of-mental-health-issues-during-pandemic/">effects
of living</a> with restrictions based on the unfounded assumption <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">that “COVID can be anywhere, any time”</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-color: white; background: white; color: #222222; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">– to use <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/covid-briefing-nov-25-1.5815434">Fitzgerald’s
words</a> – even though it demonstrably isn’t.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">-srbp-</span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-700796029502223112020-11-24T07:00:00.008-03:302020-11-29T20:59:37.919-03:30Did Breen bungle federal bus cash offer? #nlpoli<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir0yg7Viq-08kh5yDNz6on-we5ZGy1hH1huwYxMA28jg13UJ8TqGjBTyapovOkO2GdV6h4BRkYtHAeZmTw6f1Ns9cFPcr7OOtldIWkwsBb8X-DIOTPXm_HHsvccx_OImYvhiCLRw/s522/Homer-Simpson-doh-766201.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="351" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir0yg7Viq-08kh5yDNz6on-we5ZGy1hH1huwYxMA28jg13UJ8TqGjBTyapovOkO2GdV6h4BRkYtHAeZmTw6f1Ns9cFPcr7OOtldIWkwsBb8X-DIOTPXm_HHsvccx_OImYvhiCLRw/s320/Homer-Simpson-doh-766201.jpg" /></a></div>The federal government offered the provincial government its share of about $19 billion in COVID aid delivered to provinces in July.<p></p><p>There was another chunk earmarked for municipal transit systems.</p><p>Buses.</p><p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/federal-restart-money-newfoundland-labrador-municipalities-1.5660160" target="_blank">CBC reported </a> at the time that "Newfoundland and Labrador did not apply for that [transit] money". Apparently, "... the City of St. John's said any transit losses it experienced were minimal
compared with larger cities."</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><blockquote>"We wouldn't have a significant enough loss to
make value of that," said [Mayor Danny] Breen.</blockquote><p>Fast forward to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/metrobus-service-reductions-drivers-shifts-1.5808263" target="_blank">November.</a></p><p>The city slashed the Metrobus budget by $800,000. As a result, the bus service will run through the winter on a reduced schedule and cut shifts for drivers. Some will get papers to allow them to file for unemployment insurance.</p><p>Neither Breen nor any other councilors would do media interviews about the cuts. The city spokesperson sent out to shoo the media away offered no explanation for the politicians' sudden silence.</p><p>Maybe it had to do with the cash they turned down last summer.</p><p style="text-align: center;">-srbp-</p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-15577350592539344912020-11-23T07:00:00.002-03:302020-11-23T07:03:36.854-03:30A pandemic of fear #nlpoli<p></p><blockquote><i> In Newfoundland and Labrador, politicians and public health bureaucrats are dealing more with a pandemic of fear than of disease. It is one they helped create. It is one they sustain in the way they talk and act. Let us hope that Monday’s news conference is not another of their super-spreader events.</i></blockquote><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWT94vD6Nvu3FgyXALXjPsYGuetfLAwDagBxEHKSSnuqzxN9jKvmzK8_DDCKFFKeuDZ7wAVHIS22B_GWXSMt20S2kxppDsmoTLvzOwSpWquPinu4ELa7x8RDlbdPEeJD-iVRm74A/s600/babadook.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWT94vD6Nvu3FgyXALXjPsYGuetfLAwDagBxEHKSSnuqzxN9jKvmzK8_DDCKFFKeuDZ7wAVHIS22B_GWXSMt20S2kxppDsmoTLvzOwSpWquPinu4ELa7x8RDlbdPEeJD-iVRm74A/s320/babadook.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">On
Saturday, the Deer Lake town council held an emergency meeting and decided to
close the town hall and a local recreation centre for two weeks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They also decided – apparently without
consulting public health officials - to encourage all businesses in the community
to shut for two weeks for all but essential sales and services. They’ve told
people to stay home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The local seniors
home has stopped allowing any visitors. <o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Former
Premier Dwight Ball tweeted a message from the town council Saturday evening
(right).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There have
been <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-covid-19-november-22-1.5811779">five
new cases</a> of COVID-19 in western Newfoundland, presumably Deer Lake.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are all in the same household as the
initial case, who brought the illness back from outside the province where he
works.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The people
of Deer Lake are afraid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In that fear,
they are like so many people across Newfoundland and Labrador. Their fear is
not, as one might expect, the healthy respect of people who know a deadly
disease when they see it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather, their
fear – like all fear - is borne of ignorance and suckled by misinformation, the
most pernicious form of which comes from the provincial government on a steady
basis.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcbKk1LvLQY3MxZztza1v6OtBreafD24ZRgOFxn5V4dDBGhozuScmlIS2QlI2YjK4D4Q2TWLg6gm-cOOPTdc8fleHyQ_z1T_D8moZ088pPfCUQ4gDj-qwYZsJs27OQcSJRnX89cA/s1678/DLTC-1.jpeg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1678" data-original-width="1242" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcbKk1LvLQY3MxZztza1v6OtBreafD24ZRgOFxn5V4dDBGhozuScmlIS2QlI2YjK4D4Q2TWLg6gm-cOOPTdc8fleHyQ_z1T_D8moZ088pPfCUQ4gDj-qwYZsJs27OQcSJRnX89cA/s320/DLTC-1.jpeg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Deer Lake Declaration<br />(continued below)</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Newfoundland
and Labrador continues to have the highest level of restrictions for a province
that has never had community transmission of COVID-19.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each of the cases that have cropped up since
May have been quickly identified, isolated, and, through effective contact
tracing, cut off from any prospect of spread.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They have all come – with perhaps one or two exceptions – from locals
who have brought the illness back with them from a work-related trip to
Ontario, Saskatchewan, or Alberta.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Pedants will note the cases that came from one traveler from Africa or
the Russian contract worker but those are the except rather than the rule.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What those
pedants will ignore is that since March tens of thousands of people have
traveled back and forth between Newfoundland and Labrador and some point in
North America.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Usually, this has been an
area like Ontario, where the disease has continued to wax and wane since the
early part of the year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Tens of
thousands of travelers and thus far only a handful of cases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are 21 active cases as of 22 November 2020.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There have been 58 new cases since the first
of June. The recent uptick in local cases is tied to the increase in cases in
other provinces. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We can
actually put some firmer numbers on this to put in perspective.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.thetelegram.com/news/passenger-trafffic-down-at-st-johns-international-airport-in-2019-392352/">In
2019</a>, St. John’s airport handled about 1.353 million passengers between
January and November. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This year, thanks
to first Snowmaggedon and then COVID, that number is down quite
dramatically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In April, passenger
traffic was down to a mere five percent of normal. <a href="https://stjohnsairport.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Workforce-Reductions-at-SJIAA.pdf">In
July,</a> the airport authority said that figure is the one they expected to
continue into the near future. But <a href="https://stjohnsairport.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/SJIAA-To-Increase-AIF.pdf">in
October,</a> they projected passenger traffic would be down to 20% of its usual
amount for the year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Let’s work
with that 20% figure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That gives us
about 27,000 passengers a month, on average, so far this year in St. John’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We will discount April as being practically
zero.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyneMf0jUWyALMkEkF-apXiIESOtGYBgbZeNC-iWIKtb_rhyphenhyphenyCghZxmcZ3tLb0Ndpck7WA0cQAIef6_3QCqteGHOVxbMOhF-0qqj6runWbUStG7WfUPwFbYobmTE3XVEtUdsWMzA/s1889/DLTC-2.jpeg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1889" data-original-width="1242" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyneMf0jUWyALMkEkF-apXiIESOtGYBgbZeNC-iWIKtb_rhyphenhyphenyCghZxmcZ3tLb0Ndpck7WA0cQAIef6_3QCqteGHOVxbMOhF-0qqj6runWbUStG7WfUPwFbYobmTE3XVEtUdsWMzA/s320/DLTC-2.jpeg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Deer Lake Declaration (Part 2)<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And we have
had 58 COVID cases in that same time we have had 135,000 travelers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Not 58 a
month.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">58 in
total.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What worked
to contain them is what worked since the beginning:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>testing the sick, isolating the positives,
tracing contacts, and isolating them. This is a point SRBP has made before,
most notably in “<a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-facts-of-case-nlpoli.html">The
facts of the case</a>”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And requiring
that travelers into the province isolate for 14 days on arrival.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The general
decline in air travel across Canada since March is really what reduced the
number of infected individuals down to 58.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The other stuff contained those 58 so that – according to <a href="https://covid-19-newfoundland-and-labrador-gnl.hub.arcgis.com/">provincial
figures</a> - one traveler infected, on average, just one person in their
household.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People fixate on Caul’s, but
the reality is that once people were aware of COVID and started to practice
simple precautions, like isolating and keeping their distance, the disease has
not been able to take hold.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Since the
travelers who brought infection originated in this province – with one or two
exceptions - there’s no reason to believe that the ban imposed in May on
non-residents had any impact. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mandatory
mask-wearing imposed in August similarly appears to have no meaningful impact
on reducing the spread of illness. Nor has the byzantine array of restrictions
on public gatherings, community bands, dance troupes, choirs, and virtually
every aspect of social and economic life in Newfoundland and Labrador shown to
be effective in reducing the transmission of an illness that has been unable to
find purchase here.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Fear comes
out of ignorance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this case, it is
ignorance of the actual prevalence of the disease in Newfoundland and Labrador and
the threat it poses. Ignorance includes not knowing the effectiveness of
government measures that have worked and based on politics (the non-resident
ban) or caprice (the mask order.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We know as
a result of testimony during the recent court case, for example, that the
non-resident ban came because the Chief Medical Officer accepted as true
stories about tourists and phantom travelers for which there was never any
evidence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To do so, she also ignored the
thousands of false reports her officials and police had investigated prior to
that. Likewise, a couple of weeks after dismissing a mask order as being
unnecessary, the Chief Medical Officer imposed one, without explanation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The ignorance
of what works and what has been meaningless breeds a lack of confidence in the
government measures. That lack of confidence fuels the fear that demands more
restrictions when none are warranted. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
politicians, generally tuned to make the public happy anyway, load on the
restrictions because it is easier to pander than to lead. The bureaucrats, tuned
to making their political masters happy, will apply whatever restrictions they need
to staunch the latest outbreak of fear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In Newfoundland and Labrador, the public health officials are dealing
more with a pandemic of fear than of disease.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If we want
to understand why politicians and bureaucrats are acting this way, it’s best to
rely on simple explanation. Politicians and bureaucrats share the same
misperceptions and misinformation of the people they govern. Ministers in
Newfoundland and Labrador are driven by their own fear and
misunderstanding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is the easiest
explanation for the school closure in March when there was just one case
here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s the easiest explanation for
John Haggie’s assertion we needed even greater restrictions as the numbers in
the initial wave of infection in this province quite clearly were
subsiding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not prudence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is not caution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is fear.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That’s the easiest
explanation why, in a province that has actually been very success at managing
COVID thus far, the Chief Medical Officer has always talked as if the disease were
everywhere, already despite the evidence in front of her eyes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She thinks it is a bogeyman. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That is why
the CMO said last week that the outbreak on the Burin peninsula shows the
disease may rear its head anywhere at any time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What nonsense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It comes from identifiable
sources. We know how it spreads and we know the measures needed to contain it. We
know when those measures work and when they don’t. There is <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/05/fighting-boogeyman-with-dwight-john-and.html">no
boogeyman</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In
Newfoundland and Labrador, politicians and public health bureaucrats are
dealing more with a pandemic of fear than of disease. It is one they helped
create.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is one they sustain in the way they talk and act. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let us hope that Monday’s news conference is
not another of their super-spreader events.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">-srbp-<o:p></o:p></span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-77019931298331523092020-11-16T07:00:00.008-03:302020-11-16T07:00:00.430-03:30Policy Pixelation #nlpoli<p><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyBOE3wRAIvKex67elxSVw2c98dP1iqjHKW-UJalxcgmwNPyqwZHsDssn4bV-gHhnaQiiX2VsM3lQ8KXXcr1dZjRCAbvzXhw5PZF7Bor7azd2Wnbb_I64P3hmzqdJluCkoG0iAHQ/s1400/pixelation.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyBOE3wRAIvKex67elxSVw2c98dP1iqjHKW-UJalxcgmwNPyqwZHsDssn4bV-gHhnaQiiX2VsM3lQ8KXXcr1dZjRCAbvzXhw5PZF7Bor7azd2Wnbb_I64P3hmzqdJluCkoG0iAHQ/s320/pixelation.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>The members of the House of Assembly voted unanimously
at the <a href="https://www.assembly.nl.ca/HouseBusiness/Hansard/ga49session1/20-10-28.htm"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">end
of October</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> to set up a committee to decide how to give everyone
in the province a cheque each month from government.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The motion started out with a few reasons why the
members thought it was a good idea:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>people
across Canada didn’t all have the same income, people were getting such a
cheque already from the federal government to cope with COVID, some people – no
one indicated who they were – thought this was a good idea, and when people had
more money they were generally better off.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">When it came time to explain those things in greater
detail, Jordan Brown, the New Democrat member who led the debate didn’t give a
single bit of extra detail that showed he and his staff had done any research
on it at all.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">He just made flat, generic statements, including:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“There are a
lot of geographical differences in regions throughout this country, too.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“we do have
very unique geographical challenges, we have a unique population. We have a lot
of unique needs that make this province what it is.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“A lot of
the research that we've come across was actually Canadian research, Canadian
led. As Canadians, we should be proud that we are actually looking at these
things within our own country. We have a lot of the research and legwork
already done here.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Just my
observation of this province, we're a very societal province. We're very adapt.
We're very caring. We seem to be a province that cares so deeply about
everybody in it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He mentioned
five groups that signed a letter in favour of what they called a “basic
income.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Brown also added that a “Tory
senator wrote a book on why we should do this as a country.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No
details.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No evidence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No specific information. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And most
tellingly of all, not a single description of just what this universal basic
income might look like.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A </span><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-basic-income-committee-1.5786372"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">CBC reporter</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> who covered this resolution put her own
description on it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In</span><a href="https://youtu.be/GaIXFsrLDyo"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> the video version,</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> she suggested every person would receive a cheque of maybe as much as $2,000
a month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That would work out to $24,000
a year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People who didn’t need the money
– whoever they might be – would give it back to the government through income
tax.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everyone else would just be better
off.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">When the
reporter asked people on the street if they’d like free money from the
government, they all agreed it was a wonderful idea.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No one
bothered with a bit of simple math.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There are about 250,000 working people in the province.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Give them all $24,000 a year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The cost
would be $6.0 billion a year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Roughly all
the provincial government’s </span><a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/budget/2020/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2020/09/Estimates-2020.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">own-source income</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> from taxes and resource royalties.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All of it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ok.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So, give
them only $12,000 a month.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s still
roughly all of what the government currently spends on health care.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">How about if
we just limited it to the 33,000 people – roughly speaking – who get income
support from the provincial government right now?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">$792
million.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That would
be roughly double what government spends on income support alone right now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In those few
sentences, you have read more detailed, factual information than any member of
the House of Assembly considered when voting to send a group of colleagues on
the way to set up a test project on a universal basic income.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No one
talked about how much it would cost, how it would affect existing programs, or
even where the money would come from.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s not
rocket science and it doesn’t take very much time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But no one
bothered.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They don’t
need to bother because the politicians were mainly concerned with whether the
idea would be popular.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And – as
anyone knows – free money is always popular.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That’s the
way policy goes these days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No one
bothers with details like cost, the knock-on effects, or any of those concerns.
When Tony Blair was Prime Minister of Great Britain, he championed what some
people called </span><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/1478-9299.00004"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">joined-up government. </span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The idea was to break down divisions between
departments especially on major issues that were complicated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, in
Newfoundland and Labrador, we’d need to start with the idea of joined-up
thinking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You’d have to realise what you
do with one project has implications for others first before thinking about
getting people co-ordinated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The sceptics
among you are thinking this is all nonsense.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There is a long way from a private members’ motion in the House of
Assembly and a major government commitment.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, that
would be true except that record of the past 15 years shows how much government
does is short-term, isolated, disconnected, or otherwise separated one from the
other.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">People don’t
think things through.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Like in 2008,
all three parties supported the expropriation of property from three companies,
along with enormous environmental liabilities even though the problems were
painfully obvious.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Then all the
painfully obvious problems turned out to be real. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Or consider
an email sent by the top public servant in the provincial government to the
deputy minister of finance in </span><a href="https://www.muskratfallsinquiry.ca/files/P-00962.pdf"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2006.</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Have you
been consulted,” Robert Thompson wrote to Terry Paddon, “on the financial
capacity of the govt to finance the Lower Churchill project in some fashion
should we decide to go it alone[?] The govt is planning to make an announcement
on Monday, and I need to know whether you have any issues.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The email
came from Thompson on the Thursday as cabinet approved an announcement for following
Monday that the government would green light the Lower Churchill project.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Paddon
testified at the recent inquiry about Muskrat falls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a crucial date since it was – for all
meaningful purposes – the start of the Lower Churchill project in the form that
has proven to be such a disaster.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s
also an important email since it shows that at the very moment the government
decided to go ahead with the project, the Clerk of the Executive Council
clearly didn’t know whether anyone had asked and answered this basic question:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>can we afford it?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Of course,
Thompson was also just covering his ass.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Both he and Paddon knew full-well that if – as Thompson wondered –
Paddon had any concerns, it was too late to voice them t that point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And both knew that it was pointless to voice
them about a project the Premier personally wanted to go with.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.muskratfallsinquiry.ca/transcripts/"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Paddon’s answers</span></a><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> to commission counsel Barry
Learmonth tell the rest of the story:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR.
LEARMONTH:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do you remember receiving
that email? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR. PADDON:
I don’t remember specifically, no. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR.
LEARMONTH: Okay, and did you provide any response, to your knowledge, to Mr.
Thompson’s request? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR. PADDON:
I likely would have. Whether it was a response – an email response or whether I
called him – <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR.
LEARMONTH: Yeah. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR. PADDON:
– one way or the other, I would have responded. It’s – <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR.
LEARMONTH: Do you know what your answer – response would have been? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR. PADDON:
(Inaudible.) <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR.
LEARMONTH: No idea? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR. PADDON:
No, idea. No. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">MR.
LEARMONTH: Yeah, all right. Well, that’s going back 12 years –<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Off
Learmonth went after something else, as if the email meant nothing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But what Learmonth
had right there was the proof that the largest project in the history of the
provincial government came without so much as anyone thinking about whether we
could afford it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No one ever
did.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What’s the
difference between universal basic income and Muskrat Falls?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Nothing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The root of
this behaviour is in how politicians and their special advisors – the Brits
call them SpAds – think about what they are doing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once, not so very long ago, there was
campaigning and then there was governing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One was short-term and the other was, implicitly, long-term, and more
complicated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While campaigning is
entirely a political activity that tended to last a couple of weeks every few
years, governing was the field dominated by career public servants.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It involved issues that lasted years either
to develop or to resolve.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">After 2003,
politicians in Newfoundland and Labrador simply ignored the governing
part.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They never stop campaigning or thinking in
campaign terms. Political considerations and political advisors – the latter
often lacking in meaningful experience - tend to dominate on most decisions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They think
mostly about popularity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are tuned
to what they believe is public opinion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Politicians
and their staff used to judge public opinion by polls that took days or weeks
to gather. These days Twitter and Facebook dominate political calculations even
though neither of those is a reliable indicator of public opinion. Twitter
storms happen in seconds and political responses often come just as fast and
with very little understanding of the implications.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Because
opposition parties in Newfoundland and Labrador tend to ape the party in power,
the same obsession with the short-term spread. That’s fundamentally why the
parties sound so much alike on so many issues. Well that and the fact that, as
in most western countries, the needs of the urban middle and upper middle
classes dominate political discussions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All parties
agreeing with one another most of the time is so normal that have even
forgotten how to appear to differ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not
so long ago, the opposition would vote against the budget.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they didn’t want to trigger an election in
a minority parliament, enough of their members would have to change the air in
their car tires at the crucial moment so that the government budget passed. By
contrast, in the most recent session of the legislature in Newfoundland and
Labrador, all parties voted for the government budget despite opposition party
claims they had issues with it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All three
parties support the government, even though some might claim they don’t.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reason the politicians all want to appear
to work together, by the way, is that this is a very popular idea on the bits
of twitter that deal with local politics.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The fixation
on the short-term or local is mirrored in other parts of the political system
as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Parties chose candidates who
can win a local seat with local support.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As one party advised prospective candidates recently, they had better
come with their own volunteers and money because the main party had shag-all to
give them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Parties don’t exist like they
used to.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These days they are closer to
franchise deals where local wannabes can buy into a brand and central campaign
organization to get through the election in exchange for going along with the party
program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Party organizers don’t care
about recruiting potential cabinet ministers. They just want to win seats so
any local luminary will do, regardless of what their other experience or sills
might be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s all. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">When the
politician doesn’t go along with the program or looks like they will cause a
problem on Twitter, the political instinct is to get rid of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every member of caucus – regardless of party
- is expendable. Every member could be the subject of a Twitter-storm of
controversy, real or, frequently, contrived.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Since the go-to response from the political masters in any party is to
cut first and think later, if at all, politicians do everything they can to
stay in line with the rest and out of the line of fire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The result is, as in a campaign, all the
people on the same team say the same thing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Discussion and disagreement – the stuff that fuels smart policy –
disappears.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The political
approach pioneered under Danny Williams lives on in other ways.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Government news releases don’t contain
information.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They meet bureaucratic
schedules for good news that will make the government popular.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ministers learn quickly to recite only prepared
lines – commonly called a KM (kay em), short for key message.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>KMs seldom contain useful information or
anything that sounds like a logical argument. This is the age of <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/03/unformation-nlpoli.html">unformation</a>
and <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2008/11/uncommunication.html">uncommunication</a>
after all.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Industry and energy minister Andrew Parsons is
fond of responding to questions with the cliché start “What I can say is…”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s not a joke. It’s the reality and ministers
like Parsons may frequently not be the person who decides what is or is not
allowed in their KMs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The person may not
be familiar with the issues at all, let alone appreciate the wider
implications.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Opposition
parties copy the same approach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s so virulent
a method that it has spread to municipal government, like the one in St. John’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>City councillors now act like their
provincial cousins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They don’t disagree
in public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They act as spokespeople for
the bureaucracy even though they have no managerial responsibilities for the
bureaucrats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Communications policy
controls and cleanses their public statements of anything controversial or
unsupportive of the city’s direction.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The recent
controversy in St. John’s over paving walking trails so bicycle users can speed
down them is a case in point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The project
is a massive change to the existing trail system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The people who will benefit most from the
changes are a small and relatively affluent segment of the population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Council bought into their proposal early on
and the communications about it, as a result, including the highly structured “consultation”
process are, designed to manage and marginalize discontent. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Council is putting the checks in the boxes of
a process, but the outcome is already decided, just as it is all too frequently
in the provincial government as well.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Former
finance minister Ross Wiseman has said several times in public speeches that the
reason we have problems with government finances is that the government has a
one year budget cycle and a four year election cycle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The mismatch between the two forces
politicians to always think about the next election.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The only
problem with Wiseman’s theory is that the same is true of every Canadian
province, the federal government, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet none of them are teetering on the edge of
bankruptcy for the second time in less than a century. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What’s going
on in Newfoundland and Labrador has some similarities to what happens in other
places, but for the most part it comes from what people in Newfoundland and
Labrador believe about politics. What they believe drives how they act.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Taken
altogether, it’s a set of beliefs and actions that sees pixels, not
pictures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That pixilation is what allows
a group of politicians in a province that still cannot pay for Muskrat Falls or
reduce its massive budget deficits to think of ways to spend billions more that
it doesn’t have.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And no one thinks
that’s a problem.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">-srbp-<o:p></o:p></span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-23433812152433393402020-11-13T07:00:00.030-03:302023-04-01T08:46:08.986-02:30Sod off, Norm Doyle #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYu6OjNNM8PYE7Xq6FyMftHYSwzkPWI3ioaXRbf-u4TMz3aRof3H6TU6WWn0P4xS_b8DUea4iyGLUnf7ahffOkEsvMZzYAsPW4FTO_66TaGvRdo1ictxvsCuyS9stZDxMCnv9CZQ/s160/The+Asshole.jpeg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="160" data-original-width="107" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYu6OjNNM8PYE7Xq6FyMftHYSwzkPWI3ioaXRbf-u4TMz3aRof3H6TU6WWn0P4xS_b8DUea4iyGLUnf7ahffOkEsvMZzYAsPW4FTO_66TaGvRdo1ictxvsCuyS9stZDxMCnv9CZQ/w238-h356/The+Asshole.jpeg" width="238" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ex-Harper fart catcher <br />Norm Doyle<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Veteran Connie hack Norm Doyle
has finally aged off the public tit, on which he spent too much of his adult
life.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Attention
spans are so short in local politics these days that most people don't remember
his stint as a fart catcher for Stephen Harper let alone his long time in
provincial politics.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">So let's refresh memories with a couple of examples.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Anyone who
wants to get a more fullsome account of Norm's shallow and self-serving political career can use the search function in the upper left corner of
these e-scribbles and enter "</span><a href="https://draft.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/9925311/2343381215243339340" style="font-size: 12pt;" target="_blank">Norm Doyle"</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;">. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Lazy readers can click that link
on Norm's name.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In his
memoir published a few years ago, Doyle whined about that time in 1989
when he and his crowd were turfed by voters into a batch of shitty offices in
the Confederation Building. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Your humble
e-scribbler told the story more honestly than Norm ever would:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><blockquote><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Doyle and
his mates wound up in the western wing of the fifth floor in a part of the
building they had not renovated since it was built in the 1950s. Sometimes
water poured in when it rained. That’s the spot the Conservatives gave the
Liberal opposition when, in their arrogance, the Conservatives figured that
these offices were only ever going to occupied the Liberals or the New
Democrats. Doyle had never worked in the Opposition office -
despite the implication of one sentence in his book - and most of his
colleagues couldn’t remember the time before 1972 when the Tories had won power
from Smallwood and the Liberals.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">By contrast,
Doyle and his colleagues made sure their offices were well-appointed. They
spared no public expense to fit themselves out in fine style. Bear in
mind that Doyle was part of a provincial government that was in very tough
financial shape. Among the Tories, only the Speaker worked in a place
decorated in a style best described as a cross between a Turkish whorehouse and
a set from Good Fells or Married to the Mob. The rest were
lavish as lavish could be in a 1980s way. Doyle doesn’t get into any of
that but clearly, from the way Doyle describes the election episode, he still
finds the whole thing painful a quarter of a century later.</span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In one small paragraph </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">- excerpted in </span><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2013/10/how-not-to-promote-immigration-nlpoli.html" style="font-size: 12pt;" target="_blank">this SRBP post</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> - Norm also just how small-minded he could be. The subject was the end of the sectarian education system that had kept Newfoundlanders and Labradorians ignorant and backward for a century and more:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><blockquote>There would
be no more schools teaching Christian principles or creeds. As a matter
of fact, there would be no obligation on the part of the so-called
enlightened system to teach much more about Christianity than it would about
the other world religions, whether they were the new Asian religions, or
Taoism, or Shamanism, or Confucianism, or Wicca, or New Age. Christians
might very well make up ninety-nine percent [sic] of the Newfoundland
population, but [they] would now occupy the same space in our schools as those
who barely made it onto the radar screen.</blockquote><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Simon Lono
took issue with another of Norm's bigoted views. He wrote this short, and
characteristically generous, criticism when Norm wanted to ban equal marriage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><blockquote><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">I was
sitting here at my desk, minding my own business listening to the radio when,
to my surprise, I hear Norman Doyle!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Remember Mr.
Doyle? If you cast your mind back you might recall that he's the sitting Member
of Parliament for St. John's North.<br />
<br />
It's ok if you don't recall because since his election, Mr. Doyle truly has
been very effective at being an MP (missing person).<br />
<br />
But now he's resurfaced on issues close to all our hearts - same-sex marriage.<br />
<br />
Apparently he believes that the issue should be re-opened in yet another vote
for yet another debate because he has a real problem with what consenting
adults do in the privacy of their own bedrooms.<br />
<br />
Mr. Doyle believes that this burning issue takes precedence over a whole host
of federal issues as they pertain to our province - fisheries, unemployment,
social programs, health and education funding.<br />
<br />
The Harper government was recently good enough to float a trial balloon on a
constitutional amendment that would squeeze federal funding out of areas of
provincial jurisdiction. The philosophy behind this is clearly "every
man/woman for themselves".<br />
<br />
While Doyle and his national Conservative allies are keen to get the federal
government off the backs of the individuals and the provinces, they have no
problem putting government into our bedrooms.<br />
<br />
I'm not very impressed.</span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Norm wasn't
very impressive, ever.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Except for
his ability to get elected again and again and then ingratiate himself with Stephen Harper
enough to get a seat in the Senate. Norm lowered the standard in any elected
body in which he sat and finished off by doing the same for the Senate. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And while
Simon wouldn't say more than that Norm left him unimpressed, your humble
e-scribbler will be characteristically blunt: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Norm Doyle
is an asshole.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Good
riddance to him.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">-srbp-<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-30019840506178517512020-11-10T07:00:00.002-03:302020-11-10T07:00:00.908-03:30Bank of Canada ends provincial short-term debt backstop #nlpoli<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_DExF0AYpdjXZ6bO5SWueG0kxgkKr_PQna_p1eX36CSNZgB45BxJB_UbKWFhoytPfcDMHu5k_Ww7jF-BngaEGdulgkk3GDeBF9f20_XzL7oUc47jv2PstZ25TWpSKJQnTB_lTzQ/s1800/Bank+of+Canada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1800" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_DExF0AYpdjXZ6bO5SWueG0kxgkKr_PQna_p1eX36CSNZgB45BxJB_UbKWFhoytPfcDMHu5k_Ww7jF-BngaEGdulgkk3GDeBF9f20_XzL7oUc47jv2PstZ25TWpSKJQnTB_lTzQ/s320/Bank+of+Canada.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>The Bank of
Canada will stop picking up provincial government debt effective 16 November,
2020, the Bank <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/9925311/3001984050617851751?hl=en-GB" target="_blank">announced </a>Monday. <o:p></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The move
reflects "the continued improvement in the functioning of short-term
funding markets and financial markets more generally,” according to the
announcement.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The last
operation for the <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/market-operations-liquidity-provision/market-operations-programs-and-facilities/provincial-money-market-purchase-program/">Provincial
Money Market Purchase</a> program will be 13 November 2020. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Under the
PMMP, the Bank of Canada would purchase up to a set percentage of short-term
debt (maturity less than 12 months) offered by any Canadian province. The program began in March 2020 with a
maximum purchase of 40%. The Bank of
Canada revised the limit to <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/07/bank-canada-announces-changes-provincial-money-market-purchase-pmmp-program/">20%</a>
in July and <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/09/bank-canada-announces-changes-provincial-money-market-purchase-pmmp/">10%
in September.</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Bank
introduced a similar program to purchase <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/04/bank-canada-introduce-provincial-bond-purchase-program/">provincial
bonds</a> in May. Under the <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/market-operations-liquidity-provision/market-operations-programs-and-facilities/provincial-bond-purchase-program/">Provincial
Bond Purchase Program</a>, the Bank of Canada will purchase up to 20% of an issuing province’s “eligible assets
outstanding” on the secondary bond market.</span><span style="background: white; color: #676984; font-family: "Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 107%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The Bank’s
purchases will aim to reflect a reference portfolio based in equal weight on
each province or territory’s share of eligible bonds outstanding and their share
of Canadian GDP.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Each
issuer’s eligible share will be recalculated on a monthly basis. Actual
purchases will depend on what is offered through the tender offer process and
may differ from the reference portfolio.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“The program
will hold up to a total of $50 billion par value of eligible assets.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The PBPP
will end on May 6, 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p>
</p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">-srbp-<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><br /></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-29724344755836789242020-11-09T07:00:00.042-03:302020-11-09T23:05:38.606-03:30Paging Dr. Freud #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzvNyaI-ECdpMTbGXdROz8MivIOG3qh2dPqVyyZ-xvxv1OXjPfUjwW72yk9lLESb4u9C4W61KDU8w15vewy9Kb1yadQ6ow81FPch_d8hJr45U4F_1kp5t9lgLDTRkWBNKAroZ2Sg/s300/stuck+in+door.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="222" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzvNyaI-ECdpMTbGXdROz8MivIOG3qh2dPqVyyZ-xvxv1OXjPfUjwW72yk9lLESb4u9C4W61KDU8w15vewy9Kb1yadQ6ow81FPch_d8hJr45U4F_1kp5t9lgLDTRkWBNKAroZ2Sg/s0/stuck+in+door.jpg" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Moya Greene, head of the Premier’s Economic Recovery
Team, told municipal leaders last week that the provincial government spends almost
$2.0 billion less on health care than it actually does.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Weird.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">She said the government spent 25% of its budget on
health care.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://vocm.com/2020/11/06/105790/"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">VOCM</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
reported it: “</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Greene
says healthcare is about 25 per cent of the province’s total expenditures, and
that it is a conversation we have to have.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The actual share in 2019 was 42% and the forecast
share in 2020 in 37%. You can find the figures in the budget tabled in the
House of Assembly at the </span><a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/budget/2020/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2020/09/Estimates-2020.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">end
of September</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This is a really bizarro comment since Greene is
already well into </span><a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2020/exec/1022n02/"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">her job</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
of sorting out both government overspending and re-organizing the economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She should have a handle on all numbers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">After all, Greene and her provincial recovery team will
deliver a preliminary report by the end of February. Sure she’s not due to have
the whole thing finished until April, but the first deadline of February is really
only about three months away, if you allow an interruption for Christmas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But that’s not the only weirdness.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Two groups – same territory</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>VOCM also reported
Greene saying that “</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">her
team will be guided on that front by the advice of the Health Accord NL team.”
Greene’s bunch “will be mindful of that team’s advice on the subject,”
according to VOCM.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The weirdness is that the </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">health accord crowd seem to have other ideas.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Co-chairs Pat Parfrey and Sister Elizabeth Davis did
the media rounds on Friday. When asked about the relationship between Parfrey
and Davis’ tribe and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Greene and her
crowd,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Davis told </span><a href="http://ntv.ca/task-force-leaders-seek-public-input-for-new-health-accord/"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">NTV</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> on
Friday that she and her bunch would look at one thing care while the provincial
recovery team “is looking purely at the economic future” of the province.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If you listen to the clip, you can notice that Davis
leaned on the word “purely” almost like it was a synonym for “just”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>*They* are just talking about the economy, and
by implication, that really doesn’t have anything to do with what “we” are
talking about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Thinking of the two committees would be fine except
that, as Davis and Parfrey made plain they aren’t limited in what they are
talking about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sure, the crowd currently running the place call it
the health care accord. But listen to Davis, Parfrey, or health minister John
Haggie.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They talk about social
determinants of health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s way more
than how many hospitals there are or whether you can see a doctor on your iPad.
“Social determinants of health” includes minimum wage, income support,
education, child services, Indigenous relations, women and gender equality, and
the criminal justice system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Oh yes, and jobs, too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">After all, people with good jobs that pay well tend to
be healthier than people who don’t.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now you have two groups looking at pretty much everything
going on in the province that involves the government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Davis is aware of this, by the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She said in another part of the interview
that both groups might wind up in the same spot, even as she claimed they were
talking about different things.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On top
of that, Parfrey and Davis are keen to get all sorts of people talking and,
inevitably, that will turn into a list of new things that everyone wants.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">All of that costs money and that’s where the whole
thing runs smack into Moya Greene and her comment about how much money the
government spends on things like health care and ferries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now go back to Greene’s comment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Except instead of a mistake, just suppose she
made a Freudian slip. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Maybe Moya was
talking about reducing health care spending to the point it only took up 25% of
the provincial budget. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That would take
the current health budget of $3.0 billion down to something like $2.0 billion. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Now go back
to the <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2020/exec/1022n02/">terms of
reference</a> for the committee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moya
alone delivers the final plan by the end of April next year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She has to present “a plan and recommend
options for the [provincial government] to address these challenges over the
next three years.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Three years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Starting
next April.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile,
as they told reporters last week, <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2020/exec/1105n03/">Parfrey and Davis</a>
are to deliver the first cut of their plan around the same time Greene and her
crowd get their first cut of the plan back to government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They will deliver the final version by the
end of next year.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The result is t</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">wo groups looking at essentially the same sorts of things, both going at it
simultaneously, on very tight if not completely unrealistic time-lines, and at
least one team - which still hasn’t been named yet - not really sure how it
relates to the other.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Strategic Economic and Social Plans<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The last time we collectively went through this
exercise of changing the strategic direction the province was in, it took the
<a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2008/06/change-and-challenge-strategic-economic.html">economic strategy</a> crowd two and a half years of extensive discussions and
study, plus detailed public consultations, to come up with a viable plan that
looked ahead 25 year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/search?q=strategic+social+plan">strategic social plan </a> took about as long and for the good reason that it takes time
for people to get to grips with complex issues and agree on them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> T</span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">he consultations they held were not
these superficial tick-the-box jobs the government does these days.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Both the 1990s plans were genuinely strategic in that
they recognized how the issues are interconnected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> The way government tackled the plans reflected the understanding that a fundamental change of direction for the province was a political exercise, not a managerial one. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The final documents represented not just a
bunch of ideas cooked up by a committee sitting around a table.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It reflected what had become the consensus
across the province about how to leave behind the old ideas we knew didn’t work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There were still lots of folks wedded to the
past and sure, enough, they came to power in 2003.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But changing direction took a consensus that came
- <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/02/on-need-for-politics-nlpoli.html">by definition</a> – out of the way the government developed the two
strategic plans. As Bob Rae said, "<o:p></o:p></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Politics [is] the art of pursuing common interests through... active listening, advocacy, public persuasion, compromise and negotiation."</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Contrast that with the current approach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">You see the point.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Two 800 Pound Gorillas… and what next?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Then there are the issues that no one is talking
about. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Muskrat Falls is due to come online next year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We still have absolutely no idea what the
provincial government will do to deliver the promise that the cost of paying
for the project will have no financial impact on consumers and/or
taxpayers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We have no rate mitigation plan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whatever Dwight Ball’s crowd came up with,
the first thing Andrew Furey did as Premier was scrap that and set up another
bunch to not only talk about rate mitigation but also explore the prospect of
building Gull Island.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the most optimistic scenario, people in the
province will get two plans – possibly ones that don’t fit together – dropped on
them over the next few months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People
might have some clues as to what is coming, but in all likelihood, they will get
them once they are done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure that’s the
way government works these days but that, in itself, is a huge part of the
problem we have in this province.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s
how we got into this mess with government spending and Muskrat Falls.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And what happens then?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Maybe we find out in the budget that this is a done
deal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s a reasonable assumption
given the way government has worked since 2003. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Or will the government call an election before we get
the reports?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Odds are against them calling one after Moya says we
need to haul a billion bucks out of health care and close a raft of hospitals and health centres.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Will it take another year beyond that?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will deadlines get extended?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Will the whole thing get scrapped?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">No one knows.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">That's because, ultimately, none of this matters.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Whatever Moya, Pat, and Elizabeth do, the only thing
that counts is the reaction of the politicians once they get the reports in their hands.</span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">-srbp-<o:p></o:p></span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-53281151695429376982020-11-03T07:00:00.035-03:302020-11-03T07:04:28.263-03:30Reality Control #nlpoli<p><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></i></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxsvq7bIYo9VGZpnhHcxjPkuK1gD8aYTJtz0A1Z0EltOCi23oAvmFUCTl2S44jO7bORNTaXeD9pJuu3GzCRqSXrGgm3X-8AFAngJkIZwmgRS8nBUcnTW7mGthQwQhGZffgX-117Q/s472/memory+hole.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="256" data-original-width="472" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxsvq7bIYo9VGZpnhHcxjPkuK1gD8aYTJtz0A1Z0EltOCi23oAvmFUCTl2S44jO7bORNTaXeD9pJuu3GzCRqSXrGgm3X-8AFAngJkIZwmgRS8nBUcnTW7mGthQwQhGZffgX-117Q/w381-h207/memory+hole.jpg" width="381" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Memory Hole</td></tr></tbody></table><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Nineteen eighty-four</span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"> is popular
these days.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">People think that the ideas in the book like the
memory hole are modeled on communist or fascist dictatorships from the early
part of the last century.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What those people forget is that George Orwell worked
at the BBC during the Second World War.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As
Dorian Lynskey noted in his recent history of the novel, Orwell thought that “radio,
as it existed in the 1940s, [was] ‘inherently totalitarian.’” </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In Spain during the Civil War, he saw his first
newspapers that “did not bear any relation to the facts, not even the relationship
which is implied by an ordinary lie.” But it was in his exposure to radio
during the Second World War that Orwell heard in all the propaganda on all
sides very similar distortions of reality. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“This kind
of thing is frightening to me," Orwell wrote in his 1943 essay <i><a href="https://orwell.ru/library/essays/Spanish_War/english/esw_1">Looking back
on the Spanish war</a></i>, “because it often gives me the feeling that the
very concept of objective truth is fading out of the world.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“After all,
the chances are that those lies, or at any rate similar lies, will pass into
history… Yet, after all, some kind of history will be written, and
after those who actually remember the war are dead, it will be universally
accepted. So, for all practical purposes the lie will have become the truth”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This is only
a small step to the slogan of the Party in <i><a href="http://www.george-orwell.org/1984/2.html">Nineteen eighty-four<span style="font-style: normal;">:</span></a></i> “<span style="background: white; color: black;">Who controls the past, controls the future: who controls the
present controls the past</span>.”<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Winston Smith’s job, as anyone who read the book or seen the
movie versions knows, is to alter newspapers from the past to reflect the
current Party messages.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The old
newspapers – indeed any fragments of paper – disappear down a chute popularly
known as the memory hole, which led to incinerators somewhere in the building
where he worked. They would be replaced by Winston's altered version.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“The past, [Winston] reflected, had not merely been altered,
it had been actually destroyed. For how could you establish even the most
obvious fact when there existed no record outside your own memory?</span>”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;">A popular line in Newfoundland and Labrador these days came
up in the House of Assembly </span><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-importance-of-what-we-talk-about.html" style="font-size: 12pt;">a
couple of weeks</a><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;"> when the politicians were not talking about the latest news
of management cock-ups at Muskrat Falls.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;">Energy minister Andrew Parsons was sparred with opposition leader Ches Crosbie
about who was responsible for the cost over-runs that had driven the cost of
the project to be almost three times what the public had been told it would
cost in November 2010.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“The
project the minister refers to,” <a href="https://www.assembly.nl.ca/HouseBusiness/Hansard/ga49session1/20-10-21.htm">Crosbie
said,</a> “was sound in concept but poorly executed by Nalcor, and much of the
poor execution happened on his watch.</span>”<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Sound
in concept but poorly executed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrZnV8EVWjcHO2Q2AOveQ_zDzwfiTyJQHsD2bAxWtlJsk1lDlseTmIesKxBBimug1KxO1THmLIG9ieAylIBU7X5UTO6YgmFYLhZgSKc2tEJaVL0NX27UQRNrzU-XrbQeQPrfIw7g/s1024/Reality+control.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="175" data-original-width="1024" height="73" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrZnV8EVWjcHO2Q2AOveQ_zDzwfiTyJQHsD2bAxWtlJsk1lDlseTmIesKxBBimug1KxO1THmLIG9ieAylIBU7X5UTO6YgmFYLhZgSKc2tEJaVL0NX27UQRNrzU-XrbQeQPrfIw7g/w425-h73/Reality+control.jpg" width="425" /></a></div>That’s
a popular line among Muskrateers. Dwight Ball said something along the same
lines during the 2019 election debate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ball told his familiar lie that he had never supported Muskrat Falls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Crosbie quoted Ball’s words from the December
2012 Hansard when Ball said he had loved the project when he first heard of it
that November now a decade past. So, Ball changed his line to say the project
was sound in concept but poorly executed.<o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That
was <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2015/09/pride-and-failure-nlpoli.html">Dwight’s
longstanding rationalization</a> for his past support of the project and his
continued refusal once in power to do anything meaningful to stop it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Muskrat Falls was a fine project.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was just poorly managed. Or words to that
effect.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s
nonsense, of course.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The project never
made sense, as regular readers well know. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The concept from the outset – April 2010, as
we now know – was to force local ratepayers to cover the full cost even though
they did not need the power and there were cheaper alternatives the government
never considered. No one looked at what this might mean for those taxpayers as
the project went over-budget. They just ploughed ahead, regardless.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Muskrat
Falls was always supposed to <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2016/11/muskrat-math-nlpoli.html">double domestic
electricity prices</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Muskrat
Falls was always supposed to double public debt.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Muskrat
Falls was always supposed to deliver free or really cheap electricity to other
people while Newfoundlanders and Labradorians paid the full cost of it, plus
profit for the companies involved, and got no lasting benefit of it for themselves.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This
isn’t the first bit of Muskrat Falls the project supporters despatched down the
memory hole as they re-imagined the past. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They started relatively early on by
calculating the start date of the project as <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-foundation-of-lies-and-deceit-nlpoli.html">December
2012</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Realistically, we should start
it from November 2010, when Danny Williams and Kathy Dunderdale announced it.
And politically, this totally political of politically projects was unstoppable
from about 2005 onwards.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
effect of using December 2012 as the start date is to alter reality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The architects of the LeBlanc inquiry terms
of reference used the start date in December 2012.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This allowed the commission to focus only on
the execution of the project and ignore entirely the role played by politicians
in conceiving of, developing, and driving the entire project from the
beginning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
emphasis that LeBlanc played on things NALCOR officials hid from the
politicians feeds the myth the project was sound but, as Crosbie said, NALCOR
executed it poorly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The truth is the politicians
did not care. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
2012 myth also allows people to forget that Danny William was the father of this
monstrous product of ego and ambition, of politics and pride.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It shifts the blame for the project from the
father to the midwife whose only real job was to bring the creature into the
world. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
2012 myth hides the extent of the cost over-runs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Five billion we were told in 2010.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But by 2012 it was over seven billion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A year after father Williams and midwife
Dunderdale announced their creation, it has already exceeded the total cost
everyone was assured the dam, line to the island, *and* the one to Nova Scotia
would cost.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
fabrication of a false past is not a conspiracy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It doesn’t take a dictatorship. Individuals
are doing on their own, sometimes unaware of the implication of their
alteration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For many of them, making up
a false history is their mind’s way of protecting itself from trauma. They had supported
Danny, supported the project, disregarded the critics, went along with the
crowd.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They feel pain and maybe guilt
but by believing another small lie, they can free themselves of the guilt.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And
now by believing that Muskrat Fall was actually good, they pave the way for
Gull Island.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the problem was merely
the piss poor management of the project, then Gull Island will be handled by
different managers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We will not make the
same mistakes again, some future Premier will announce.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This time we will get it right even though
all of the things that made Muskrat mad still make the Island insane.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And
the same people who cheered wildly in 2010 will cheer wildly for the glories of
Gull, comforted - even if only for a moment - by the controlled reality, the
shared delusion they helped create.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">-srbp-<o:p></o:p></span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-52312567374363637292020-11-02T07:00:00.010-03:302020-11-02T07:00:06.594-03:30The hard truth of reconciliation #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmYy9-lE4lbhHpwK0ANK3QVNLJPT4guyb0sSzJzDrm22lAwW_SHkyKZ90SW-4otO18-OqMqystmzNxunVdQ__D5cr75_1ur9PruQwGGXVMbBEy0KgIwpf8H6ubBOIAFMNKlcEabg/s1200/truth+-nick+youngson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1200" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmYy9-lE4lbhHpwK0ANK3QVNLJPT4guyb0sSzJzDrm22lAwW_SHkyKZ90SW-4otO18-OqMqystmzNxunVdQ__D5cr75_1ur9PruQwGGXVMbBEy0KgIwpf8H6ubBOIAFMNKlcEabg/w379-h252/truth+-nick+youngson.jpg" width="379" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.nyphotographic.com/" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #337ab7; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;">Nick Youngson</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #959595; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: justify;"> </span><a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/" rel="license" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #23527c; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: -webkit-focus-ring-color auto 5px; text-align: justify;">CC BY-SA 3.0</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #959595; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: justify;"> </span><a href="http://alphastockimages.com/" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #337ab7; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.3333px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none;">Alpha Stock Images</a></td></tr></tbody></table>Reconciliation is a very popular word these days.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It comes out of the <a href="http://www.trc.ca/"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>commission</a> appointed to investigate what
happened to Indigenous people in Canada in residential schools run by the
federal government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The commission
produced a <a href="http://trc.ca/assets/pdf/Calls_to_Action_English2.pdf">lengthy
list</a> of actions needed to “advance the process of Canadian reconciliation.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Leave aside the 94 specific actions the commission
recommended.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are really three key
things that must form the basis of successful reconciliation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The first is a willingness of the people involved to
come to a mutual understanding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Explicitly,
they are going to be involved in something doesn’t just happen instantly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will take time. The people involved in
reconciliation will need must *want* to reconcile if it is going to be
successful.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The second is a desire to find truth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s conveniently mentioned in the name of
the commission:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>truth and
reconciliation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it is also important
for people interested in reconciliation to come with the understanding that the
truth to be found isn’t going to sit wholly on one side or the other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Third, reconciliation is going to take
discussion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dialogue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Communication.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">On all three of those counts, events in Newfoundland
and Labrador over the past few months have shown just how far we are –
collectively - <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>from starting successful
reconciliation.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Let’s start with the bright spot.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Both the groups representing Indigenous
people and the provincial government seem interested in improving the
relationships between and among them. They *say* they want to improve relations
so let’s take that as a positive sign.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The same cannot be said of the other two elements. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For starters, the truth that what the Truth and
Reconciliation commission investigated and what happened in Newfoundland and
Labrador are two very different things.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They are very different because relations between Indigenous people and
Europeans were different in Newfoundland and Labrador from the experiences in everything
west of here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There are some broad similarities, but in Newfoundland
and Labrador, there are some important differences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That history must be understood since the
current situation came out of the past situations. And if we cannot get that
history told fully and honestly, then we are off to a rocky start. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Take residential schools as an example.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Newfoundland and Labrador, residential
schools were not organized or operated exclusively for “Indians” with the
purpose of assimilating the children into non-Indigenous culture. What we have
been hearing in the <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-new-colonialists-nlpoli.html">news
media recently</a> and what came out of the local court settlement presents a
fundamentally false version of what took place in Newfoundland and Labrador.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As for dialogue, the accusations aimed at Perry
Trimper are a good example of how people are not interested in discussion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In both the first and second episodes, no one
dealt with what Trimper actually said.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Instead, they dealt with what some people accused of him saying and that
those assumptions made him a racist.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">No one was interested in listening, which is an
essential part of dialogue. No one asked questions, except to wonder why
Trimper wasn’t already dangling from the end of a rope, figuratively at least. People
were interested only in accusing, harming, and silencing. That is true of both
Indigenous and non-Indigenous people. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i>The
Telegram </i>offered two excellent examples of rushing to judgment, complete
with misinformation:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/local-perspectives/pam-frampton-why-perry-trimper-is-still-in-caucus-part-2-515314/">Pam
Frampton</a> and <a href="https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/local-perspectives/martha-muzychka-empty-words-are-not-enough-514338/">Martha
Muzychka</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s hard not to see both
column as examples both of the <i>Telegram’</i>s <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/06/all-news-mob-will-let-us-print-nlpoli.html">internal
culture</a> - but also the authoritarian, and in many respects fundamentally
anti-democratic political culture prevalent in Newfoundland and Labrador.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The hard truth is that reconciliation worthy of the
name is not possible in a political culture that deliberately avoids dialogue,
that suppresses dissent, and that rushes to judgment. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">-srbp-<o:p></o:p></span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-10687115377666481062020-10-27T07:00:00.019-02:302020-11-09T23:07:07.810-03:30The importance of what we talk about #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9T5qmXNZPYo6h7najFOT2shQeFDCAhqMMAstqt-O1Oq9dPgXa8_dnWNkU7Ic6u8dIEYh0CO9AYJo7FTX6OKopJ1eSG7cY3Z0wvOJjlzSIIgWGuyQY80BhBJKYPH6xPj4v3YGB0Q/s1200/Nalcor+logo+transparent.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="1200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9T5qmXNZPYo6h7najFOT2shQeFDCAhqMMAstqt-O1Oq9dPgXa8_dnWNkU7Ic6u8dIEYh0CO9AYJo7FTX6OKopJ1eSG7cY3Z0wvOJjlzSIIgWGuyQY80BhBJKYPH6xPj4v3YGB0Q/s320/Nalcor+logo+transparent.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Nalcor will
have to replace about 350 fibreglass beams used in the Labrador-Island Link
because of a fault in their manufacture.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Nalcor
discovered the fault during two incidents at Soldier’s Pond in August that
caused the link to shut down on both occasions.</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">The public
found out about the two incidents last week in a news report by
allNewfoundlandLabrador.com on 21 October 2020. They discovered the
information in a report by <a href="http://www.pub.nf.ca/indexreports/winter20182019/From%20NLH%20-%20Hydros%20Monthly%20Status%20Report%20-%20Schedule%20for%20the%20LIL%20in%20response%20to%20the%20Boards%20November%2021,%202019%20correspondence%20-%202020-09-28.PDF" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Liberty Consulting</span></a> to
the Public Utilities Board filed 28 September 2020. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Nalcor chief
Executive Stan Marshall - knowing about Liberty’s disclosure – held a news
conference the same day to announce that the company had successfully generated
power from the first turbine at Muskrat Falls. The <a href="https://muskratfalls.nalcorenergy.com/september-28-2020-nalcor-achieves-first-power-despite-covid-19/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">news release</span></a>, that is
the thing most reporters relied on for their subsequent stories, Nalcor talked
up the achievement of first power.</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">In his slide
presentation, Marshall told reporters that there was no capital cost allowance
for “r</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">eplacement
of fiberglass beams at SOP/MF (GE Grid’s responsibility)” along with three
other items. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">But there was no context. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">And so conventional media – <a href="http://ntv.ca/muskrat-falls-cost-rises-to-13-1-billion-with-full-power-expected-september-2021/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">like NTV</span></a> – never
mentioned the spectacular story.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">So, you’d expect that a story about another
management problem at Muskrat Falls combined with the failure of Nalcor to
disclose it would give politicians something to talk about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 12pt;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Opposition leader Ches Crosbie’s first question in
the <a href="https://www.assembly.nl.ca/HouseBusiness/Hansard/ga49session1/20-10-21.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">House of Assembly</span></a> that
day was about a young man who had gone missing in Vancouver. His father
is Crosbie’s constituent. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">“Concerns have been raised, Crosbie began with the
wonderful passive sentence that says nothing about who is raising concerns,
“that the search was called off too soon and that clues have surfaced” about
the young man’s disappearance.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> “I’d ask the minister if he’s spoken to his
colleague in British Columbia to make the case for resumption of the search?”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> His second question was about pushing the government to bail out the West White
Rose project.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The only time Muskrat Falls came up was when
Crosbie and natural resources minister Andrew Parsons fell into a childish
dispute about which of their political parties was most responsible for the
mess of Muskrat Falls.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 106%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 106%; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">In the process, Crosbie used a creative fiction –
that the project was great but poorly managed – that would have given him a
good excuse to hammer at the Liberals over the latest Nalcor cock-up.
After all, the company’s quality control had failed yet again to the point
that, as with the transmission cables themselves, Nalcor had accepted and
installed faulty hardware. In this case, the faulty fibreglass beams
accounted for more than 90% of the total installed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But he didn’t.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, Crosbie used his first question of
the last Question Period before the weekend to ask what the government in Newfoundland
and Labrador was going to do about a missing person in Vancouver.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Then the
justice minister said that either he or his officials had “<span style="color: black;">spoken to the Department of Public Safety [ in British
Columbia] and, subsequently, the emergency services division in British
Columbia. We did have an update as of about half an hour ago, and we’re extremely
hopefully that the search will be restarted.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">You
might think that this was a case of the politicians thinking about individuals
in distress. Or maybe that the opposition parties just talked about what was in
the local news media.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Then
you’d check Hansard to see if there was any mention on that same day of a young
man found on a street in the central part of St. John’s with his head caved in.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The story was well covered by <a href="https://www.saltwire.com/news/local/man-taken-to-hospital-with-serious-injuries-after-altercation-on-spencer-street-in-st-johns-511811/">local
media</a> from the day before.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Not
a peep in the House of Assembly.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The
next day, the <a href="https://www.assembly.nl.ca/HouseBusiness/Hansard/ga49session1/20-10-22.htm">opposition
justice critic</a> made a passing reference to a “frightening incident” in her
reply to a statement from the justice minister about a new support dog the
Royal Newfoundland Constabulary had purchased recently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Somewhere on social media there was even a
picture of the new Premier posing with the dog.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But
not a word about a violent assault on a street a block or so away from police
headquarters.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">When a municipal
enforcement officer in Goose Bay arrested an Inuk man, opposition member <a href="https://www.assembly.nl.ca/HouseBusiness/Hansard/ga49session1/20-10-19.htm">Lela
Evans</a> did ask about it in the House of Assembly.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But after it
turned up in the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/hv-gb-investigation-municipal-enforcement-1.5767053">local
media</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Her first question was about
whether the arrest had been handed over to the special investigations team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She made no effort to explain why that should
happen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Her second
question tied the arrest to homeless among Indigenous people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The minister’s reply - evidently written by someone
with a limited understanding of the issues - was about money given to the Nunatsiavut
government to deal with homelessness within Nunatsiavut.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Goose Bay is outside it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Homelessness affecting Indigenous people (Evans
question) is an issue across the province.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And that’s
where the whole issued vanished, until Perry Trimper <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/happy-valley-goose-bay-police-video-meeting-trimper-oliver-1.5770796">made
comments</a> that became the focus of everyone’s attention from there on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Attacking Trimper, even after he apologised, continued
until the Premier disowned him and Trimper resigned.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Each of
these incidents is reminiscent of the events last fall when a young many died
in the streets of St. John’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Politicians failed to deal with it as the hallmark of a serious social
problem in the province in the same way that they avoided homelessness,
violence in St. John’s and yet more mismanagement at Nalcor this year. In last <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-importance-of-what-we-care-about.html">November’s
post about the murder, </a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>your humble
e-scribbler linked that episode with a series of other episodes to show how politicians
and other opinion leaders avoided the core point of an issue in favour of
superficiality.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">This fall,
we know these are <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-rookies-house-and-orchestra-pit.html">not
isolated incidents</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">What’s
troublesome about the most recent episode is that if you read what Perry Trimper
actually said – in contrast to the way some people took it – he touched on the
widespread problem of homelessness and the impact it has both on addicts and
the communities in which they live.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">People with
addictions “because of many complicated problems” don’t use the many supports that
are available and instead continue in the grip of their addictions. It is a
problem for the people with addictions and it puts others in jeopardy as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">What’s more
troublesome is that in all of the attention some people got by taking issue
with Trimper’s word choice just continues the pattern of not confronting major
social issues - in this case homelessness - that affect people in communities
across our province. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">If the
pictures of this arrest, itself dubious, hadn’t appeared in the media, there’d
be no reference to it in the House of Assembly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And when it did turn up, no one pursued the issue in the House, choosing
instead to focus on what some people decided was more important:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trimper’s words.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here’s a news flash for you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perry Trimper was never that important that
he deserved so much attention, so much media coverage and public comment.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Unless we
understand that Perry was a very important way for a lot of people to avoid talking about something that is important.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">No one in a
position to do anything has a voice for the homeless.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, we collectively choose to give voice
to other things.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">No one wants to talk about Muskrat Falls.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">So we change
the subject.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Or at other times, through confrontation, we reinforce barriers within communities that are trying to deal with issues
like homelessness or violence or poverty when the only real way to address the
issues is to break down those barriers. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">We talk
about what or who we think is important.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It is that
simple.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And this
week we found out how very important issues that affect people of Newfoundland
and Labrador everyday were not important enough for our community leaders to
bother with.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">-srbp-</span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-57521217112661657472020-10-26T07:00:00.006-02:302020-10-26T07:17:06.623-02:30Husky and Come by Chance Updates #nlpoli<p></p><p><i></i></p><p></p><blockquote><p></p><p><i>There is no good reason for governments to intervene in the oil sector even as much as they have. It has nothing to do with the gibberish of "decarbonization" or whatever the greenies will yell down next to the peasants from the ivory tower.</i></p><p></p><p><i>It's just bad business. </i></p><p><i>And bad business is the same as <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/09/policy-confusion-does-no-one-any-good.html" target="_blank">bad policy.</a></i></p></blockquote><p><i><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/09/policy-confusion-does-no-one-any-good.html" target="_blank"></a></i></p><p></p><p>_________________________________________</p><p>When Husky shut down the West White Rose expansion, that should have been a clue the company was in serious financial difficulty.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioMYdkURPus3suXSAlOstBuS7dyGBdeNqN53zhckQ6DB7_c4mCbcSFT4GJv41xwEOdJLq6XjpaYldsQLNkBR3RkEUX1taT9kGumcWzte3H-rc0DITYiDsHjLUSEWhMefCFJZ6nkw/s1000/Husky+HQ.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1000" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioMYdkURPus3suXSAlOstBuS7dyGBdeNqN53zhckQ6DB7_c4mCbcSFT4GJv41xwEOdJLq6XjpaYldsQLNkBR3RkEUX1taT9kGumcWzte3H-rc0DITYiDsHjLUSEWhMefCFJZ6nkw/w368-h276/Husky+HQ.jpg" width="368" /></a></div><p></p><p><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-husky-boys-challenge-nlpoli.html" target="_blank">SRBP </a>pointed it out plainly. Husky's <a href="https://huskyenergy.com/investors/reports-filings.asp" target="_blank">financial statements</a> confirm it. Announcement of the sale of Husky to Cenovus came as no surprise. </p><p>It was also no surprise that the current owners of North Atlantic Refining are exploring the idea of turning the refinery into a tank farm. Rumour around town was that Irving was more interest in the storage potential than in using the refinery for anything more than a tank farm.</p><p>Neither of these stories will lessen demands from the local oil patch, from companies, and from the politicians for the federal and provincial governments to prop up this company or that project.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>Cenovus may well come to government with a revised proposal. The news from Come by Chance will likely increase the pressure for government to put taxpayers' money into the project.</p><p>The best policy would be - in both cases - for government to stay out of it. Globally, the oil industry is going through a period of major change an re-valuation. Best to let the companies and investors sort themselves out. Best in the short-term, although it will be painful for some, but certainly best in the long run for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador. Even if the provincial government had the money, there is no more reason to put money into the oil industry than it was in any of the mining companies that have gone through shifts, changes, and even closures, without getting hand-outs from the public accounts.</p><p>The markets will take care of companies like Husky and North Atlantic without any risk to taxpayers. There is no good reason for governments to intervene in the oil sector even as much as they have. It has nothing to do with the gibberish of "decarbonization" or whatever the greenies will yell down next to the peasants from the ivory tower.</p><p>It's just bad business. </p><p>And bad business is the same as <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/09/policy-confusion-does-no-one-any-good.html" target="_blank">bad policy.</a></p><p>There are good reasons for Cenovus to continue with West White Rose Good business reasons. But if the company needs to slow the project or decides to sell off its interest, then that is the best choice for the resource owners - the people of Newfoundland and Labrador - as well. </p><p>And if North Atlantic turns into a tank farm then that represents the best choice, determined by the people who have their money invested in it. Government bureaucrats and politicians never make good choices at running businesses. They make a hash of running governments as the current financial state of Newfoundland and Labrador attests. </p><p>Why anyone thinks politicians and bureaucrats can run businesses is a mystery. The only ones who seem to think so are business owners - local and foreign - looking for a <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/10/come-by-chance-and-politics-of-inertia.html" target="_blank">sucker.</a></p><p>We've been suckers one too many times.</p><p>Let government protect the public interest, as they are supposed to do. Make sure there are solid programs for workers affected by job losses and layoffs. Protect the environment, for once. And make sure that taxpayers get their full measure of royalties and rents. </p><p>Everything else, inevitably, winds up being loss and that's bad business and bad government.</p><p style="text-align: center;">-srbp- </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-32891691042547152682020-10-19T07:00:00.016-02:302020-10-19T10:56:31.997-02:30Come by Chance and the Politics of Inertia #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></div><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR0pqtI80exTdlWzC2NGERMfj7iQc4JkqoxlyP0KCXMAiPzjjvj5cazpRt-HU_tmwLA35Q3r3oKc_O8Q0rOAvrdSUjpxY0jL4n3W_aC5qX6D94HMWW4mb4GCw8xKoa34YZk40TlA/s800/El+Dorado.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="800" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR0pqtI80exTdlWzC2NGERMfj7iQc4JkqoxlyP0KCXMAiPzjjvj5cazpRt-HU_tmwLA35Q3r3oKc_O8Q0rOAvrdSUjpxY0jL4n3W_aC5qX6D94HMWW4mb4GCw8xKoa34YZk40TlA/w370-h234/El+Dorado.jpg" width="370" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Is *this* the real El Dorado?<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table>More than six months after they shut it down, the
company that owns the Come by Chance oil refinery wants to sell it.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> And they want </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/business/local-business/come-by-chance-sources-say-silverpeak-wants-province-to-help-with-cost-of-idling-refinery-509883/"><span lang="EN-US">provincial taxpayers to pay</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">According to Saltwire, “</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Glen Nolan, president of the United Steel Workers
Local 9316 union, said that in recent conference calls officials of the
province’s energy department indicated Silverpeak had floated” the idea that
the provincial government would pay to keep the plant in hot idle mode. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Between 150 and 175 workers have been laid
off from the facility since February.
Another 60 or so are working to keep the plant ready to run. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A deal with Irving – reported by </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/irving-to-buy-north-atlantic-refining-including-refinery-in-come-by-chance-n-l-1.4958523"><span lang="EN-US">Canadian Press</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
and </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/irving-oils-come-by-chance-refinery-purchase-a-building-block-to-get-western-canadian-oil-east"><span lang="EN-US">others</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
as a done deal in late May – came apart for reasons that aren’t clear.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So while they are trying to sell the refinery </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://www.silverpeak.com/strategies/energy/"><span lang="EN-US">Silverpeak</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> wants the
provincial government to pay to keep the refinery idled in a state where it could
get back into production very quickly.
The alternative will be to mothball the refinery and lay off the
remaining workers at the refinery.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The only company interested in buying the refinery – </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://origin-international.us/services"><span lang="EN-US">Origin International</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> –
doesn’t want to run it as a refinery.
But that hasn’t stopped the provincial government from talking it up and
for representatives of the union at Come by Chance from being excited at the
prospect.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It’s hard to imagine the provincial government won’t
put up the cash.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><b>The First Law of Political Motion</b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Three good reasons to expect it: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-indent: -18pt;">There’ll likely be an election called
next month. Laying people off would look bad. </span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></li><li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-indent: -18pt;">The
Premier has already said - </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; text-indent: -18pt;"><a href="https://twitter.com/FureyAndrew/status/1313251883574755328"><span lang="EN-US">via Twitter</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-indent: -18pt;"> –
that the “</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; text-indent: -18pt;">refinery is an
asset to this province, and one our government will maximize.” </span><span style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; text-indent: -18pt;">And then there is the fact the provincial
government has done it before.</span></li></ul><!--[endif]--><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><!--[endif]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"><!--[endif]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-align: left; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Of the Three Laws of Political Motion in Newfoundland and Labrador, the most
powerful one is inertia. Governments do
things they have done before, sometimes simply because they have done them
before. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Come by Chance refinery is a case study in policy
inertia. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It started life as one of the industrial dreams that
the hydro development at </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2011/09/dateline-desperation-newfoundland.html"><span lang="EN-US">Bay d’Espoir</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
was supposed to lure to the province.
Alongside a hockey stick factory, another paper mill, and a phosphorus
plant came a refinery and a petrochemical plant beside it. All of it would be
drawn to the province by the promise of </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1974.tb00539.x"><span lang="EN-US">cheap electricity</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> –
lower than at Churchill Falls, as it turned out – and the foundation of
economic glory for years to come.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The provincial government gave the developers a $30
million loan and Joe Smallwood added on another $5 million in unsecured
financing to help John Shaheen on his way.
That extra cash proved to be too much for Clyde Wells and John Crosbie
to stomach and the ensuing battle between them on one side and Smallwood and
the rest of cabinet on the other ended with Crosbie and Wells sitting on the
opposition benches. Along the way,
Smallwood tried to buy Crosbie off with a promise of government work for some
of his family’s businesses. As Wells tells the story, Smallwood promised to give the dissident pair
a letter promising the government would never give the $5 million, although a
clause to allow it would have to be in the enabling legislation for the
refinery to impress Shaheen’s prospective investors. Wells called it a fraud, as it surely was.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The refinery company collapsed in 19976 in what was
the largest bankruptcy in Canada up to that time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The federal government resurrected the thing in 1986,
using PetroCanada to buy it for $10 million and then sell it for a dollar to a
small New England company. The company
passed through different owners until in 2013/2014, the current owners bought
the place. As part of the deal, the </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://atipp-search.gov.nl.ca/public/atipp/requestdownload?id=331"><span lang="EN-US">provincial government</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
assumed all liabilities for environmental contamination at the site since it
started. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was part of a pattern going back to the start of
the refinery. And it wasn’t just limited
to cash or assuming all the liability for the pre-existing contamination.
Successive administrations have allowed the refinery to operate very loosely
within the bounds of provincial environment laws. They did it solely to keep the place running
and make it easier for the new owners to get in and keep the place running. Now
the demand is on the table once again for the government to pay.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><b>How much cash you want?</b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The pattern doesn’t just apply to Come by Chance. Since 2003, the provincial government has
tried to prop up fish plants and paper mills that weren’t economically viable
any longer. The provincial government offered so many subsidies to the paper
industry in 2005 to keep the Stephenville mill alive that - according to your
humble e-scribbler’s calculation – the subsidies matched the total tax revenue
for government. As it was, Stephenville
only started up in the first place as a result of a deal with the province in
the 1970s that saw the company divert a new paper machine originally due to
replace clapped-out equipment from Grand Falls<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In 2008, the provincial government may have
expropriated Abitibi’s assets in the province but – as part of the scheme – the
province assumed all environmental liabilities dating back to 19909 and coughed
up $30 million to guarantee workers’ pensions.
Abitibi survived but without all those liabilities.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now if you want to tell the larger story of government
subsidies to the paper industry, go back to the 1980s. As Bowater pulled out in the early 1980s, the
government offered $38 million in financing to keep the mill going. Since then, the government has made a string
of arrangements about timber stands, mill assets, the Deer Lake power plant,
emission controls and the like all to make it easier for the current operators
to keep the mill going.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And there’s not just forestry. Subsidies, grants, and gifts to companies
that wanted to start up in Newfoundland and Labrador is a practice that dates
back to the 19<sup>th</sup> century.
Even as the government teetered on the brink of insolvency in the early
1930s, the House of Assembly debated concessions – as they were commonly called
– to this business or that. In the 1980s, the value of federal and provincial
subsidies matched the annual landed value of the catch in any given year. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Collectively, we moved away from this idea that the
government ha to be directly involved in every economic project with funds and
freebies. The 1992 Strategic Economic
Plan was part of a series of reforms in the early 1990s that changed the
provincial government’s strategic approach to development. The SEP made the private sector the engine
for economic growth. Entrepreneurship
and global competitiveness were the hallmarks of the genuinely new approach.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And it was working, until the Conservatives switched
back after 2003 to the old-fashioned ideas that experience had shown time and
again just didn’t work. Equity stakes, Nalcor,
and Muskrat Falls are all examples of old-fashioned thinking. So too was the emphasis on oil as chosen
industry. It was the just the latest in
a string of projects touted by politicians as the source of our collective
economic salvation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In 2015, the Liberals didn’t change the strategic arc
the Conservatives set. They kept it
going and, as Dwight Ball’s oil council showed, they were prepared to go a step
further. The announcement of a new group
of industry insiders last week just carried on the trend. They were given two simple tasks:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -18pt;">Tell the government how to spend the $320
million the federal government handed over. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -18pt;">T</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-indent: -18pt;">ell the provincial government what
other policies and how much more cash the industry needed not merely to get
through this tough patch but to grow in the future.</span></li></ol><p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: left; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As with the Liberal plan to diversify the economy away from oil by doubling oil production by 2030, the
only people who have any input into oil and gas policy will be people from the
oil industry. It reinforces the trends
already set right down to the patterns that have turned the <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-atlantic-accord-background-to-1985.html">Atlantic
Accord</a> into nothing more than political code for a <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-2005-and-2019-federal-provincial.html">regular
trip</a> to Ottawa by the provincial government to beg for hand-outs of cash.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><b>We are all part of the problem</b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This arc isn’t just set by politicians and
bureaucrats. It’s popular. That’s why shifting off it would be very hard. Change will also be hard because politics
these days – like much of society generally – just doesn’t do long-term anymore. Former finance minister Ross Wiseman blames
this on the one-year budget cycle and a four-year election cycle. That would be true except that we have had
the same cycles for decades and for a while managed to make strategic changes
like paying down debt and not getting into ridiculous megaprojects.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The real cause is in the political culture. The Permanent Campaign style of politics that
Danny Williams practiced so effectively continues. Politicians don’t shift to governing after an
election like they once did. These days
every decision is taken based on popularity. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The words that come to mind to describe modern policymaking
in Newfoundland and Labrador are tactical, quick, one-off, short-term,
hasty. There’s no long-term
analysis. There’s no consideration of
how one idea will affect others. As the
past 15 years shows, there’s never any effort to engage in the sort of public
debate about major policies designed to change people’s perceptions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Politicians and their aides these days doesn’t see
pictures. They see pixels. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Same goes for the
people outside government. Take the
proponents of “green” or “tech” as the way of the future. Not one of them has considered the cost or
the implications of their ideas. Ask them for details
and they will fold their arms haughtily and proclaim their job is just to be
the oracle for a higher power pointing the way to the latest El Dorado. They and the politicians work on the same
assumptions: that the government must
drive economic development through spending, usually on whatever favoured
project or industry they are hawking at the moment.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If such an approach had not failed so miserably every time before, they might be just laughable kooks. The problem is that this is how we keep running the province, despite the fact it is precisely why are in a financial mess again for the second time in a century.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">When you have a political culture like that, you have
to wonder what will happen if Moya Greene and her team of secret advisors deliver
some really good ideas, but ones that involve changing fundamentally the course
we are on. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">No El Dorado.
No Jerusalem. No role for
government money in the economy. Just government
creating the climate that protects the public interest and allows entrepreneurs
to create economically and environmentally sustainable jobs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Today marks the 60<sup>th</sup> day Andrew Furey’s been
Premier. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">T</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here’s an election coming
soon. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal">It’s worth thinking about the power of inertia in
local politics and what it will take to shift the provincial political culture from
the course we are on.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">-srbp-</p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-7557869082093500612020-10-14T07:00:00.001-02:302020-10-14T07:00:07.961-02:30Opening the taps #nlpoli<p style="-x-system-font: none; display: block; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 14px Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: normal; margin: 12px auto 6px;"> <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/479935372/Opening-the-Taps#from_embed" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View Opening the Taps on Scribd">Opening the Taps</a> by <a href="https://www.scribd.com/user/55473571/Edward-Hollett#from_embed" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View Edward Hollett's profile on Scribd">Edward Hollett</a> on Scribd</p><div style="text-align: center;"><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" data-aspect-ratio="0.7729220222793488" data-auto-height="false" frameborder="0" height="600" id="doc_86810" scrolling="no" src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/479935372/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-QLTLZ9irF95aU4KQiwQg" title="Opening the Taps" width="100%"></iframe>
-srbp-</div>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-72119733958649678482020-10-13T07:00:00.031-02:302020-10-13T07:00:00.150-02:30The state of news media in Newfoundland and Labrador - 1988 #nlpoli<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTchP6r8QZJR7zaXiZgLA3ynZaynTuxB45fMqGzCUmnoWTxZ6N6zQK2Rv64B7gkY-yBZqtpyWO0_15dTj1qO0xu03GEgyRiIUVqKHjfv2ZK6OZKt471W3fMdxc9viBXoDtoBubvA/s1088/levy+and+white.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1088" data-original-width="700" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTchP6r8QZJR7zaXiZgLA3ynZaynTuxB45fMqGzCUmnoWTxZ6N6zQK2Rv64B7gkY-yBZqtpyWO0_15dTj1qO0xu03GEgyRiIUVqKHjfv2ZK6OZKt471W3fMdxc9viBXoDtoBubvA/w275-h428/levy+and+white.jpg" width="275" /></a></div>Some observations on the state of the news media in Newfoundland and Labrador, circa 1988, from Dr. Susan McCorquodale, "Newfoundland: personality, party, and politics" in Gary Levy and Graham White, editors, <i><a href="https://utorontopress.com/ca/provincial-and-teritorial-legislatures-i-1" target="_blank">Provincial and territorial legislatures in Canada</a>,</i> Toronto, University of Toronto Press, 1989)<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Those who
write about the relationship between politics and the press worry about such
things as ownership concentration, or about the tendency of reporters to end up
in comfortable public relations jobs with government. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">For many
years St John's was one of the few cities of its size to have two daily newspapers,
both largely locally owned and operated. Today there is one daily, and it has
been owned by the Thomson chain since 1970. It has become a newspaper which has
gradually lost its 'bustle, resources and guts.' </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Ironically, the author of this judgment,
Michael Harris, is today editor-in-chief of a new weekly newspaper, locally
owned, which has become a thorn in the side of the Peckford administration to
such a degree that the government has withdrawn all public advertisements from
the paper and generally attempts to deny access to its reporters. In recent
years regional weeklies have appeared, generally printed by one firm with feeds
from the <i>Telegram</i>. For most of the media, news originates with the press
release, the press conference, or the daily sittings of the House of Assembly.
Generally, owners have not made the resources available for any sort of
investigative reporting, and most journalists lack training and experience.</span></blockquote><p>...</p><p></p><blockquote> <span style="font-size: 12pt;">As we have
already noted, some twelve or thirteen of the cabinet ministers are authorized
to hire press secretaries. The pay range is good, between $30,000 and $40,000*.
Many of them are just out of journalism schools, and a few have been attracted
away from the local media. The fear is that if the links become too close, the
independence of the reporters is compromised by the possibility of civil
service jobs. Added to this is some concern about the balance between the skills
and resources of government and those of the local media. The journalists would
seem to be on the weaker side.</span></blockquote><p></p><p style="text-align: center;">-srbp-</p><p style="text-align: left;">*Roughly equivalent to $52,000 to $74,000 in 2020. In <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/budget/2019/departmental-salary-details/" target="_blank">2019, </a> departmental directors of communication (comparable to 1980s-era press secretaries) earned between $78,000 and $102,000 with the Premier's Director of Communications drawing a salary of $121,000.</p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-47990228160938597362020-10-08T07:00:00.014-02:302023-02-22T19:05:17.629-03:30How much is Churchill Falls worth? #nlpoli<p></p><blockquote><i> <span style="font-size: 16px;">The public policy advantage of quantifying or estimating what the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador might get in revenue from Churchill Falls 21 years from now is that it takes discussions today from the world of fantasy and make-believe to something closer to reality.</span></i></blockquote><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8UimBrrL6EtuQjZXC-bgEjO5Ct5T-dA2wGU_d82lM29sXE_XyOlVU7rZ2gOcJFw7M39Oqvux7C8rEcwN-PKYzxpWBTHjrV62Rvtd7Sq-iwVslU92O6Y0sJ1E5dwV2ZFB_KlTP-g/s1020/CF+control+room.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="573" data-original-width="1020" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8UimBrrL6EtuQjZXC-bgEjO5Ct5T-dA2wGU_d82lM29sXE_XyOlVU7rZ2gOcJFw7M39Oqvux7C8rEcwN-PKYzxpWBTHjrV62Rvtd7Sq-iwVslU92O6Y0sJ1E5dwV2ZFB_KlTP-g/s320/CF+control+room.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Churchill Falls Generating Station<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br />People talk about Churchill Falls as if it had magical
powers.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It doesn’t.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But what’s it worth?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Well, since the subject relates to the recent Innu
Nation lawsuit, Muskrat Falls mitigation, and what could be bone-idle curiosity
for some people, here’s an answer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This won’t tell you precisely what Churchill Falls
electricity will be worth in 2041 but it will give an idea of what sort of
revenue you could get.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you aren’t comfortable
imagining this is 21 years in the future, then imagine it is the numbers today –
because that’s what they are – and the 1969 contract did not get renewed
automatically in 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">All the information used here comes from sources that
are publicly available in Canada and the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Here goes.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">How much money would each of the shareholders in
Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation make each year from selling electricity
from the plant outside Newfoundland and Labrador?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">To get the answer we have to figure out:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">How much electricity is involved?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What’s the price per kilowatt how?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What are wheeling (transmission) costs?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What are the operating costs for CF(L)Co?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We are going to use 5300 megawatts as the plant
capacity available for export.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rest
gets used in Labrador. That leaves us with 30 terawatt hours of electricity a year to sell.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The price per kilowatt hour will be Hydro-Quebec’s
average price from export for the last five years for which we have data
(2013-2018).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s 4.89 cents per
kilowatt hour.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Wheeling costs are what Nalcor has been paying on
average to move 265 MW’s worth of electricity ($20 million) multiplied by 20,
which is how much 265 goes into 5300.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">With those numbers, CF(L)Co would gross $1.467
billion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Lop off the $400 million in wheeling costs and about
$95 million in operating expenses and that leaves $972 to be divided between
Nalcor/Hydro (65.8%) on behalf of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador
as the majority shareholder and HQ (34.2%) as the other shareholder.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Assuming the partners don’t leave that money with the
company for any reason, Newfoundland and Labrador would have a dividend of $640
million.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rest goes to Hydro-Quebec.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The 1969
power contract expires on 31 August 2041.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That’s 21 years away. Reliably predicting today what Churchill Falls’
output will fetch in 2042 is a mug’s game. But, blithely viewing September 2041
as if it were the discovery of El Dorado is just a different mug’s game.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The public
policy advantage of quantifying or estimating what the Government of
Newfoundland and Labrador might get in revenue from Churchill Falls 21 years
from now is that it takes discussions today from the world of fantasy and
make-believe to something closer to reality. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Let’s take a
dose of reality and assume those numbers were the revenues coming this year on
a contract that replaced the 1969 one when it expired in 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The net from
Churchill Falls from this scenario would be roughly enough to pay for Muskrat
Falls each year. That’s what we would have to spend to keep rates from rising.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s how grotesquely expensive Muskrat
Falls is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We would have to take all the
net revenue from a project that is six and a half times larger just to pay it
off.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That would
be $640 million we would not have in order to pay down debt or pay for roads,
schools, and hospitals as we had hoped.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Any mitigation scheme - like say the one the federal government talked
about at one point – that used CF revenue after 2041 to pay for Muskrat Falls
now would basically be doing what we’ve just described.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And if you
were the Innu Nation promised a percentage of the revenue after 2041, you might
get a little nervous if someone else got a claim on that and want some
assurance today that the promises will be kept.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Or think of
it this way.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The provincial
government’s current cash borrowing requirement is about $3.0 billion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would take a little over four and a half
Churchill Falls-sized sources of income to balance the books.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Make it five
CFs just for good measure or six to balance the books and mitigate rates, with
a bit left over.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Not easy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now, when people start getting excited about getting
rid of oil royalties and how magical green energy will supposedly be, ask them
to put numbers on their ideas. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When
someone says there are pockets of hidden tax cash that will balance the books
likety-split, ask them to do the math and show their workings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Or when people add yet another “Ottawa must pay!”
demand to the pile, ask them to add up the demands right now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That will show you right away how very unlikely it is
that there are any easy answers to our current financial woes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And it will also show you who isn’t helping us find the
answers that are there.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">-srbp-</span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-67059252431114636672020-10-07T07:00:00.001-02:302020-10-07T07:00:06.381-02:30Innu Nation suing provincial government not HQ over Churchill Falls #nlpoli<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDfiXVna-f9Mglp4dUfJ16evBQ3wjG_Y0WbCLIK1Szh9Zl1ABCcfM3OaGRIHG4D1OUeUZ_2YQMp_Usk8A8TIPZR8kblovau4HBJ_kSF3IBTD9Hr6bAiEdsJbyAUFOu4UIh_fF0LA/s264/innu_logo.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="90" data-original-width="264" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDfiXVna-f9Mglp4dUfJ16evBQ3wjG_Y0WbCLIK1Szh9Zl1ABCcfM3OaGRIHG4D1OUeUZ_2YQMp_Usk8A8TIPZR8kblovau4HBJ_kSF3IBTD9Hr6bAiEdsJbyAUFOu4UIh_fF0LA/w390-h133/innu_logo.gif" width="390" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Laws suits get filed in court.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Political claims for cash launch with a news conference,
a website, and a deceptive news release that misidentifies the target of the
action.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The Innu Nation </span><a href="http://50yearspastdue.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Statement-of-Claim-Issued-Oct-5-2020-reduced-size.pdf" style="font-size: 12pt;">statement
of claim</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">filed in Newfoundland and
Labrador Tuesday is against the Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation as the first
defendant in its claim for $4 billion in damages.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The provincial government owns 65% of CF(L)Co
and Hydro-Quebec owns a minority interest (35%).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There’s no reason to sue HQ since it is a minor
partner in the company that runs Churchill Falls and manages the reservoir
built in the 1960s on land claim by Innu in Quebec and Labrador.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whatever liability HQ might have would be
through CF(L)Co.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Otherwise, Hydro-Quebec is just a customer for the power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And if Innu Nation wanted to include the customers
of the power, then it would have sued every single customer of CF(L)Co since
1971, which would include companies and towns in Labrador, Ontario, and the United States. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There are lots of little clues in the claim that this
is a political move, not a legal one.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That lie-by-omission at the start is a ploy to get
local public opinion on side by exploiting historic animosity against HQ.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Innu Nation got lots of easy coverage from
their newser since no one read the statement of claim before they filed the story. But Innu Nation wouldn’t have had such luck of they had started out by saying
they were coming for the locals, which is really what this is all about.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The amount of damages – roughly $4 billion – is about
CF(L)Co’s gross revenue if you judge the project as being 50 years old.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s a lot less than HQ reportedly made off
the power purchase agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they
were hunting HQ, the Innu wouldn’t be low-balling the cash award. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">And they might be launching this in concert with the Quebec Innu who also have a claim.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The claim runs in part on the assertion that CF(L)Co
and HQ were involved in a common enterprise at Churchill Falls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Supreme Court of Canada settled that last
year in the fairness lawsuit when it determined that – contrary to the
Newfoundland and Labrador claim in the lawsuit - HQ was a customer not a
co-venturer.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The clue to what this is really all about starts with the</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><a href="https://www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/exec/0926n07agreement.pdf" style="font-size: 12pt;">New Dawn Agreement</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">for the development of Muskrat Falls.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">It included a financial settlement that was supposed to settle claims about Churchill Falls. Part of the financial settlement in New Dawn is a piece of Churchill Falls profits after 2041.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 17.12px;">But since The Geniuses behind Muskrat Falls indemnified Nalcor but not CF(L)Co, they left the door open for this suit. Muskrat Falls just got a lot more expensive and we have uncovered the real objective of the Innu action.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Expect HQ to want out of the suit for some pretty
simple and obvious reasons.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">They’ll get their
wish if not on Duckworth Street then in Ottawa.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Malcolm Rowe will file a political – not a legal – dissent from the
majority.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That will leave local taxpayers facing the lawsuit
alone. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Well, sort of alone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This is a pretty savvy play by Innu Nation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It isn't about Churchill Falls. It is about Muskrat Falls and Gull Island and the talks about some sort of bailout for Muskrat Falls that also involves - in some versions - using cash from Churchill Falls after-2041 to cover off Muskrat Falls today. That's the only way Churchill Falls might come into things. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The more important issue is the security of cash payments under the New Dawn agreement from the Lower Churchill and potential development of Gull Island, which, so far, hasn't involved the Innu Nation. While the lawsuit goes at things in a seemingly roundabout way, the lawsuit will cost the province dearly if they don't settle. Expect the final resolution - out of court - to be a revised agreement to develop the Lower Churchill, and protect the Innu Nation's financial interests, and deliver them more cash. With Ottawa involved, the settlement will be more lucrative than the New Dawn.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">-srbp-</p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-40212944012558084002020-10-05T07:00:00.006-02:302022-08-02T11:34:05.818-02:30The New Colonialists #nlpoli<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjN_xuHsBSSYUdItwNxhm27BPs0w3Upkm04WpOBz88uOP7-HeHqANpj7NsWg2ERz0XyuAtsh3zZExx_MADnFf0bGPif7yJWZQgK_rN5J4WIfpRKoKjlcaqE4bLGiiXnMpnOPP2fxA/s565/new+colonialists.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="565" data-original-width="330" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjN_xuHsBSSYUdItwNxhm27BPs0w3Upkm04WpOBz88uOP7-HeHqANpj7NsWg2ERz0XyuAtsh3zZExx_MADnFf0bGPif7yJWZQgK_rN5J4WIfpRKoKjlcaqE4bLGiiXnMpnOPP2fxA/s320/new+colonialists.jpg" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The New Colonialists<br />don't look like the old ones<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The last day of September is known as </span><a href="https://www.orangeshirtday.org/about-us.html" style="font-size: 12pt;">Orange Shirt Day</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It is a day
to remember residential schools for Indigenous people, which, as the national Truth
and Reconciliation Commission said in its <a href="https://nctr.ca/assets/reports/Final%20Reports/Executive_Summary_English_Web.pdf">final
report,</a> “were a systematic, government-sponsored attempt to destroy
Aboriginal cultures and languages and to assimilate Aboriginal peoples so that
they no longer existed as distinct peoples.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Across Newfoundland
and Labrador, schools featured special events to tell the story of residential
schools in Canada. CBC Newfoundland and Labrador ran two stories, one of which
was written by a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/pov-mugford-residential-schools-1.5745859">young
journalist</a> from Labrador whose grandmothers attended a residential school.
His first sentence is both evocative and typical of the emotion that
accompanies stories of residential schools.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“For years,
the Lockwood School in Cartwright housed Indigenous children taken from their
homes all in the name of "killing the Indian within the child."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Another of
these <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/longform/orange-shirt-day-nl-residential-schools-legacy">“localizer”
pieces</a> – ones that give a local angle to a national or international story –
explained that “[r]residential schools were established by the Canadian
government in the 1800s, with a guiding policy that has been called ‘aggressive
assimilation.’ The federal government sought to teach Indigenous children
English and have them adopt Christianity and Canadian customs, and pass that —
rather than Indigenous culture — down to their children.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That one was written by a journalist from
northern Ontario now living in St. John’s.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">In <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/justin-trudeau-labrador-residential-schools-apology-1.4417443">2017</a>,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CBC reported on Justin Trudeau’s apology to
Indigenous people in Labrador for the treatment they received in residential schools.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CBC story at the time explained
that “[b]etween 1949 and 1979, thousands of Indigenous children were taken from
their communities to attend five residential schools that were run by the
International Grenfell Association or Moravians.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">There’s only
one problem with these stories: they aren’t about residential schools in
Newfoundland and Labrador. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">These
stories about Canadian residential schools are imposed on something different,
namely the schools in Newfoundland and Labrador, without acknowledging the meaningful difference.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The two are
distinctly different.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">One of the
biggest differences is that the schools in Newfoundland and Labrador weren’t
exclusively for Indigenous children.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">They
weren’t created by the Newfoundland government to assimilate Indigenous
children into white culture. They were schools open to anyone, including
non-Indigenous children. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There were also
differences between the schools run by the Moravian mission and those run by
the International Grenfell Association that are important to understanding what
happened and why it happened.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Indigenous
people in Labrador felt left out of the apology offered by the federal
government for the abuses they suffered in schools run in Canada with the
express objective of assimilating Indigenous people. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">People in
Newfoundland and Labrador frequently complain they are treated differently from
other Canadians.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most times, that isn’t justified.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">But here’s a
case where they should have been treated differently if the objective was – in the
words of the commission’s name – truth and reconciliation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only by understanding the whole story of the
relationship between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in Newfoundland and
Labrador can those people find the truth they share that would form the basis
of any reconciliation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And in a
national sense, both Indigenous and non-Indigenous Canadians deserve to know
the truth of what happened in Newfoundland and Labrador, fully, and to embrace it
as part of their national history.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">As it is, the
national commission that traveled the country collecting stories of Indigenous
people and abuse in residential schools failed when it did not deal truthfully with
the residential schools in Newfoundland and Labrador.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The commission also failed when it produced
a report that ignored the differences in the history of the two school systems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Newfoundlanders
and Labradorians, Indigenous and non-Indigenous alike, deserve to know their
own history for themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To say that
does not deny or diminish the experiences of Indigenous people in residential
schools or their desire for acknowledgement of harm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather, it says that we must find out what our
own story is, whether we are Indigenous or non-Indigenous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We must understand our different perspectives
and different experiences of the same time and place.<b> <o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Mimicry
and Content Assembly <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">What we
should note of this experience with residential schools is how much it reflects
the way local elites these days either take their cues on what is important from
external sources or adopt external narratives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>We see it in the residential schools stories and in the minor flap over <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/06/racism-in-newfoundland-and-labrador.html">taking
down statues</a> last summer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We saw it
in the other examples from the post last summer about <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2020/06/mimicry-and-pantomime-nlpoli.html">mimicry
and pantomime</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We saw it plainly in
the story about Roger Grimes, <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/10/roger-grimes-unlikely-reactionary-nlpoli.html">the
supposed reactionary</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Around these
parts, your humble e-scribbler has started to call it Content Assembly instead
of journalism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The drive to produce
content means that large media organizations like CBC, PostMedia, or even
Saltwire pay less attention to the calibre what they produce in favour of
producing content to fill space.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
lines up with another trend, namely the way people look something up
quickly, read a bit here and a bit there to meet a need and then forget it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Increasingly people can find tidbits of
information on the Internet but they either lack the capacity to string them
together into a coherent, persistent thread or lack the interest in doing
so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Information is transient.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Knowledge – understanding - is almost
non-existent. It’s part of living in the <a href="https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2019/03/unformation-nlpoli.html">Age of
Unformation</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">You can see this
transience of information or the lack of understanding in other media stories.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>CBC ran a piece a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/mikmaq-theatre-artists-newfoundand-underrepresented-1.5668878">few
months ago</a> about two Indigenous actors from this province.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of them found success nationally and
another is able to make living acting in St. John’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But for some reason, both the writer and the
editor thought that references to pre-Confederation Canada applied in
Newfoundland and Labrador.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The result
was a bizarre disconnect between a story that was generally positive and the
historically false - but deliberately negative – references that, quite
literally, had nothing to do with Newfoundland and Labrador today.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The New
Colonialists<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s no
accident that these stories all came from CBC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Canada’s largest media bureaucracy is also rapidly becoming its leading
content assembly facility.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The pressure
to produce content for multiple platforms coupled with the bureaucracy’s centrally
controlled approach to stories makes it easy to insert false narratives into
stories to serve large bureaucratic objectives. The motive to do so comes from
nothing other than the Canadian Broadcasting Centre’s ability to do so, being
as it is located in the centre of the Canadian universe. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Take, for
example, the <a href="https://twitter.com/cbcreporter/status/1293143484212207617">CBC reporter</a>
in northern Ontario who could tweet about how proud she was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>of taking a “new approach for me, trying to
actively de-colonize my journalism. Resisted journalistic compulsion to
‘humanize’ victims, instead attempted to contextualize Indigenous deaths within
Canada’s colonial project.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">The story
was about the number of Indigenous people who have died in police custody in
Ontario.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There’s plenty in the story to
connect the deaths with a common theme across Canada, namely mental illness. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">What the
reporter meant by “de-colonizing” her writing was her reliance of the opinion
of one academic to transform the story into a narrative about race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There might be a case to be made but, in an
age when local stories are easily accessible nationally, it’s this false claim
that leaps out:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“In Canada,
policing was founded on the premise that Indigenous peoples needed to be
removed from the land and false beliefs that Indigenous peoples are both less
human and more-threatening than white people, says Jessica Jurgutis, whose
academic research looks at the relationship between settler colonialism and
imprisonment in Canada.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Jurgutis’ <a href="https://macsphere.mcmaster.ca/bitstream/11375/24059/2/Jurgutis_Jessica_E_2018September_PhD.pdf">doctoral
thesis</a> does precisely what happened in the residential schools story and
what she did in the CBC interview.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
takes a sweeping narrative and applies it generally and without apparent
concern for the importance of the details that do not fit with her objective. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A fine example is in a footnote, one of three
references to Newfoundland in her study that looks at the relationship between Indigenous
communities and imperial Britain as an international relations question. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“In the
1850s," Jurgutis notes, “the federal government also opened a number of schools
across the country with the exception of Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Prince
Edward Island.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just as all policing in
Canada did not come from a desire to move Indigenous people from their land, so
too was it impossible for something that did not exist in 1850 – the federal
government – to establish schools in places over which the non-existent government would have had no control at the time. Even if she used Upper Canada as synonymous with modern Canada, Jurgutis would still be wrong factually, ethically, and in the context of her academic discipline. That she got her doctoral degree using such nonsense is more a testament to the sorry state of modern academia than anything else. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">There is
more to this than laziness or the difficulty that some social scientists have
in coping with the concept of time.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Jurgutis
reflects a common attitude in central Canada toward what some would call
figuratively or others literally the </span><a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/publicat/royalcomm/research/Tomblin.pdf" style="font-size: 12pt;">periphery
of Canada</a><span style="font-size: 12pt;">. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The mindset defines
Canada and Ontario as synonymous and treats the regions furthest away not just
as external borders but – as the word itself also means – lesser or
insignificant parts.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">After a
while, these things start to look like colonial attitudes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The local elites in the region or on the periphery ape the metropole they
desire to be part of.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The outsiders treat
anything local as insignificant.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
an expression of power, to be sure, to erase document facts and one not without brutal hypocrisy. Academics
who might wince in fear of judging one culture by the standards of another - they call it ethnocentrism - have no problem doing the same thing when looking at people in the past. It's called presentism. In other cases, as in Jurgutis thesis she is, in effect treating Indigenous people on the periphery in the same way. Their experience, their history is so insignificant that she can make one up and impose it on them. The same is true of journalists
who fancy themselves impartial tellers of truth yet who, in their “de-colonized”
writing, simply take up a new ideology that looks remarkably like the
old one. Or a national commission that tells the story of only one part of the country but pretends it is the only story.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Nor is this
just old central Canadian wine in new skins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Lately, Atlantic Canadians have seen an influx of western Canadian money
and western Canadian politic attitudes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Whether it is from the national Conservative Party or from organizations
like the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and the <a href="https://www.fraserinstitute.org/tags/equalization">Fraser Institute,</a> western
Canadian money is pushing a narrative at Atlantic Canadians with no concern that the narrative is, from an Atlantic perspective, an entirely false one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of the easiest to spot is the notion that
we are all welfare bums who refuse to develop our own resources because we can
get Alberta to pay for it through Equalization.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s all horseshit, of course, but they have
the money to pile it higher and deeper.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">And they'll keep doing it as
long as we let them.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">That is the way colonialists operate.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">-srbp-</span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9925311.post-19568400313094578452020-09-28T07:00:00.033-02:302020-09-28T07:22:18.915-02:30Policy confusion does no one any good #nlpoli<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF4jzJpBqEkY-uAVCaCJsM18_1qqBaDTtzKeTisjAoWM1w8HNExbadLujX9_hsitN5rnQAzTbLX2PtyfEgb6puWB6qsUmTuJiSDCuXt5o5OusK3dHErQZi8MSteO0d7B6UuihaNw/s815/pushme+pullyou.jpeg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="634" height="409" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF4jzJpBqEkY-uAVCaCJsM18_1qqBaDTtzKeTisjAoWM1w8HNExbadLujX9_hsitN5rnQAzTbLX2PtyfEgb6puWB6qsUmTuJiSDCuXt5o5OusK3dHErQZi8MSteO0d7B6UuihaNw/w318-h409/pushme+pullyou.jpeg" width="318" /></a></div>Last week, the Liberal governments in Ottawa and St.
John’s unleashed a bold new innovation in political announcements.<p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Fridays used to be the day when governments buried announcements,
they didn’t want anyone to notice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They’d take out the trash, as the day came to be known, by slipping out
a news release without any fanfare.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Not anymore. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A gigantic news conference featuring both the Premier
and the provincial representative in the federal cabinet unleashed a pair of
significant announcements.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Problem was there wasn’t enough detail for many people
to make sense of it all. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hence, the new concept:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For-Fuck-Sake Friday.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Because it left observers shouting, “For Fuck Sake!”
in either bewilderment or exasperation as they tried to figure out what was
going on.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Well, fear not, faithful readers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As we have done for the past decade and a half, SRBP
will blow away all the clouds of confusion furrowing brows across Newfoundland
and Labrador and tell you what it all means.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">No duff.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">No guff.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Atlantic Loop-Garoux<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The feds actually got the ball rolling the day before FFS
Friday in what could probably be called “‘The Fuck? Thursday” as in “What the
fuck is that all about?”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Included in the </span><a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/privy-council/campaigns/speech-throne/2020/speech-from-the-throne.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Throne
Speech</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> was reference to something called the Atlantic Loop “</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">that will connect surplus clean power
to regions transitioning away from coal.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">When asked about it on Thursday, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-throne-speech-reax-atlantic-loop-offshore-oil-1.5736740">Premier
Andrew Furey</a> said the Throne speech was the first he’d heard of the
Atlantic Loop.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Not a good sign.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Then came the second bad sign, the over-sell.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">On Saturday, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“a
senior Liberal source” in Ottawa deployed </span><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/atlantic-loop-atlantic-canada-muskrat-falls-quebec-1.5738907"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Danny
Williams’ favourite shill</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> to tell us what a glorious future
awaited us all thanks to the Atlantic Loop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Veteran news watchers will recognize the phrase “senior Liberal source”
as the same one Ryan Cleary used to use whenever Brian Tobin fed him a little
morsel for the front page of the Telegram, as it then was, but didn’t want to
be easily identified as the source of the bit of media manipulation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Anyway, CBC’s David Cochrane even managed to slip in a
mention that the Loop might let Muskrat Falls be the splendiferous success Danny’s
publicist always told David it was right before David said so on air.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">With no hint of sarcasm or irony, one can safely - and
openly - quote old Twitchy Hisself and say that nothing could be further from
the truth.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Throne Speech said the Loop was about connecting
surplus electricity with markets trying to get off coal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There’s only one place in Atlantic Canada
that fits that description. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nova Scotia
Power’s long-range plan is to get out of the generation business and source
cheap electricity from somewhere else to keep Nova Scotia electricity prices
low.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Danny Williams was only too happy in 2010 to give the
Nova Scotians a block of electricity for free – while promising to double
electricity prices in his own province – just to get his legacy project out the
door.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Williams’ successor added another
block of power for the Nova Scotians far below the cost of making it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The result is that the Nova Scotians get
cheap juice paid for, in full, plus profit by the <s>gullible</s> <s>Newfies</s>…
errr… the kind and generous people of Newfoundland and Labrador.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Take away the block for use in Newfoundland and
Labrador and all that’s left of Muskrat Falls is only about $60 million’s worth-a-year
at current market prices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not enough.
And besides, if they wanted that cheap power from their northern neighbours,
the bluenosers could just run down the Maritime Link.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If Nova Scotia needs more power, there’s really only
one place to go.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Quebec.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">They have all kinds of low-cost power they are willing
to sell for cheap.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The revolution in
markets in the United States made the Lower Churchill a bust before Danny
Williams green-lit Muskrat Falls in April 2010.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It also meant that Hydro Quebec had lots of power looking for a more
lucrative home. Shipping it into the US doesn’t make as much as it used to
since the cost of the electricity is low, and the long distances plus new
transmission lines means the American markets are not as lucrative as they used
to be.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">HQ has needed a market closer to home for some
time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s why Hydro Quebec has been
trying to get it into the Maritime market for more than a decade. Closer to
home means lower transmission costs and lower transmission costs mean that
low-cost electricity is more profitable going to Nova Scotia than dumping it
into Rhode Island or New York.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Atlantic Loop will upgrade the transmission
infrastructure from Quebec into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia at federal
expense and let HQ get its piles of cheap electricity into the Maritimes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There is zero opportunity in the Loop for Newfoundland
and Labrador, thanks to the Muskrat Falls disaster.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Speaking of disasters…<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That brings us to the provincial contribution to FFS
Friday, namely the announcement that Brendan Paddick would lead a completely
new “rate mitigation” team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Right off the bat, this caused a bit of confusion
because there was already supposed to be a mitigation team ready to deliver the
goods after literally years of talks with the federal government.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Then there was the insistence this was designed to
correct some kind of misalignment – as the Premier put it – between the public
servants and the kindly folks at Nalcor.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yeah, except what Andrew Furey announced was way more than just a minor
tweak or a smack on the side of the head to realign a few skulls.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">He crowned Paddick some kind of the Hydro Czar,
free to gather around himself <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a bunch of
bureaucrats from government and Nalcor to finish Muskrat Falls, lower
electricity prices *and* ensure Nalcor and the provincial government get all
the profit they’d banked on, and build Gull Island to boot.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There are lots of major problems with this aside from
the dozens of lesser questions, like what is Stan Marshall and that crowd going
to be doing besides finishing Muskrat Falls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Are they out the door?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And why
does Paddick need to give up chairmanship of Nalcor to run this outfit which is
basically Nalcor with a few bureaucrats hanging on?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We don’t have enough space to get into all that so let’s
just focus on three strategic problems with this scheme.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">First, the approach is basically the same one that
delivered Muskrat Falls. For those who don’t know what that means, start with
the executive summary to LeBlanc </span><a href="https://www.muskratfallsinquiry.ca/final-report/"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">inquiry
report</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Friday’s announcement puts a personal friend
of the Premier in charge of a gigantic project although he has with no discernable experience in this sort of intergovernmental
negotiation, not to mention the delivery of a multi-billion dollar megaproject. Then it takes all the people <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- deputy
ministers - who should be advising the Premier and cabinet about Paddick’s
performance and subordinates them to Paddick.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Brendan controls the flow of information and, as such, appropriate
oversight is all but impossible. <span class="MsoHyperlink"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What’s worse, Paddick’s terms of reference are vague. This violates Rule One of accountability, transparency, and good project management. If
you don’t know clearly what the goals are, there’s no way to properly monitor
progress and assess performance. This basic problem has bedeviled governments for the past 15 years and this is just more of the same.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">You cannot oversee a project properly
if there’s no clear statement of what the project is about. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of the objectives is so grammatically different
from the others that it and the reference to the Atlantic Loop (which the Premier
knew nothing about on Thursday, don't forget) look like they were tossed in at the last
minute. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Not good.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Second, Gull Island isn’t big enough to pay for itself
in the current market. And if it cannot pay for itself, then it cannot also pay
for Muskrat Falls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Add in the requirement to produce the
impossible financial miracles set in 2010 as well as the rate mitigation task
and we are just going farther down the same rabbit hole Danny dragged us into a
decade ago using precisely the same failed management approach. This will not
end well.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For the record, there is a way to fix the mess at
Nalcor/Hydro and maybe build Gull Island. But to do that sort of restructuring,
you’d need a far bigger re-organization than the one described in the Friday
announcement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And you’d be hiring a team
of lawyers and bankers from New York to do it, not another cable guy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Third, and perhaps most importantly, there isn’t time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Building Gull Island is a five to seven-year
project.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We need cash next year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">To be specific, Paddick has to deliver his miracle in
less than 12 months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And since the
people behind Muskrat Falls have been trying to mitigate rates and maximize
profits (two of Paddick’s goals) for 12 years and cannot do it, there is no
reason to believe Paddick will do better in a tiny fraction of the time they
had. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And we are talking months here. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The contracts and other agreements for Muskrat Falls
make it plain the whole thing needs to be done, finished, up, and running no
later than the end of February 2021.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Or else.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There is a single, allowable six-month extension, if
Nalcor asks for it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">They did.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Quietly.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While everyone was freaked out about COVID.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And so, they now have the wall facing them on August
31, 2021 with no chances of further extension.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Don’t let the announcement of first power fool you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are big hurdles left to finish Muskrat
Falls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The asynchronous condensers at
Soldier’s Pond are still shagged up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
if that wasn’t enough, Nalcor is still grappling with the controls software
needed to manage the transmission on the lines. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Things were so
bad and so uncertain earlier this year that the folks at the oversight
committee started talking about a Plan B in the event General Electric failed completely
to deliver the software. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Altogether, there is almost a billion in
potential project costs associated with four major contingencies that could
throw the project off the rails, still.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Now admittedly the most recent information we have in
public on this is the quarterly report </span><a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/mfoversight/pdf/quarterly_report_march_2020.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">from
March</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that was released in June. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The minutes for the oversight committees June
meeting are - deliberately - an <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/mfoversight/minutes/pdf/mf_oversight_meeting_75.pdf">indecipherable
mess</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But if you squint, you can see
more than the appalling lack of disclosure to the public about Muskrat
Falls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What you can see is that the
problems are serious enough for the project to run even more overbudget than it
already is <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- almost a billion dollars –
or,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>God forbid,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>they might not even get the whole thing
finished by next August. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But let’s assume they do.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Paddick and a gaggle of bureaucrats have to do in less
than 12 months what, in the most optimistic scenario, the same gaggle was
unable to accomplish in the previous 60 months.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">How likely is that?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">FFS Friday, for sure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Uncertainty where certainty is paramount<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The last installment of the FFS announcement was the <a href="https://www.thetelegram.com/news/local/320-million-for-newfoundland-and-labrador-oil-and-gas-industry-502141/">$320
million</a> for the offshore to cover job creation, green energy, and the like
and nothing to actually get drills back in the ground.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is, after all, what the offshore oil
folks have been crying about since the winter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We don’t know specifically what the money is for.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We do know that a couple of industry insiders
will decide where the cash goes. And we know that the cash comes from the
asset-backed federal transfer announced last year, also known as <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/wp-content/uploads/Atlantic-Accord-Review-Agreement.pdf">Fake
Atlantic Accord 2</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This money was
originally supposed to go to general revenue and help deal with the government’s
massive deficit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now it is heading to
the local oil industry, along with another fund the provincial government announced
on <a href="https://www.gov.nl.ca/releases/2020/exec/0924n02/">TF Thursday</a>
to use forfeit exploration bid deposits to subsidize exploration offshore. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While this looks good on the surface, there are no
details.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Companies need certainty when
planning expensive offshore drilling programs. That’s a problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There’s no concrete amount involved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will vary, apparently. There could be cash
some years and there could be very little or none.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will the money be used primarily to support
develop of wells in the Jean d’Arc basin, where the oil is cheaper to extract
and easier to process?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or will it go to
the Orphan Basin and other deep-water prospects that are expensive and unlikely
to be developed in the foreseeable future? What about natural gas, which does
have a market value, but which government and the industry continue to neglect?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The major problem here is that neither the provincial
nor federal governments have viable energy strategies for the offshore.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The federal government isn’t really
interested and the provincial government has not decided if it is still
governed by outdated ideas <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- where the
local industry association remains mired – or wants to develop a new strategy
that reflects where the world is today and will be in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That political uncertainty is what really will make
Newfoundland and Labrador less attractive than other places when companies want
to know where they can develop oil and gas predictably and reliably.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">And on a much simpler level it will also make the
partisan discussions more problematic either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>After all, the entire industry premise – aligned as it is with both
federal and provincial Conservatives – that that they want to be happy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not surprisingly on Friday, the general
message from them was that the amounts the federal and provincial government announced
was not enough.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Make us happier, they
said.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This sort of thing will
keep going as the governments in St. John’s and Ottawa struggle to get some
control of the political agenda. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Policy confusion.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">That’s the real meaning of FFS Friday.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It does no one any good.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">-srbp-</span></p>Edward Holletthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13152397042408814142noreply@blogger.com