06 September 2005

A Telly twosome for Tuesday

Check the online Telegram today which is actually carrying two really worthwhile stories. (They carry lots, but not all are online.)

First is this story [click news and look for the "Highrise" story if that link doesn't work] by Terry Roberts on a new development for the downtown proposed by Danny Williams' brother and Danny Williams' former business partner around the end of June this year. You may recall that Premier Danny Williams is the guy who thinks Andy Wells is the right man to head up the province's offshore regulatory board.

Predictably, the city's boorish mayor is all in favour of the deal. The proposal violates the city's zoning in the area which limits buildings to four stories. The exceptions (Atlantic Place, Scotia Centre, Fortis Building and TD Place) all pre-date the revised downtown zoning policy designed to preserve the historic character of the area. [Hint: it's what draws people here.] Of course, as the mayor is fond of saying: "Rules, we dun need no stinking rules."

This council should not be making any substantive decisions since we are in the middle of a municipal election. That some members of council are carrying forward as if the election didn't matter displays a blatant contempt for voters.

Incidentally, take a close look at the design. The architect seems to thing that kitsch is actually something desirable. Google the word, if you need to. This is a design that people would surely come to wish is in the path of a Category Five hurricane.

Second is a column by Telly editor Russell Wangersky. Russell comes back from two weeks vacation and takes a swipe at columnists like A.J. Baker who pander to their audience rather than present accurate information. Bravo, Russell.

Ward 4 sign wars


Courtesy of Greg Locke comes this picture of one of several Kevin Breen signs that have been altered by an unidentified gagster.

Breen is the incumbent city councillor locked in a tough fight to gain re-election in the current municipal election.

Someone has gone through the trouble of printing up labels that have been stuck on Breen's large signs to change his slogan to "a record of lying". The font and colouring are a close enough match to the original sign that it is hard to tell the change on first glance.

Until now the sign war in ward 4 has consisted of the large number of signs. One of Breen's challengers, Ron Ellsworth has spent large amounts of money on signs, bus advertising and print ads. One of his more obnoxious looking signs is evident in this picture as well. They are obnoxious because the design is crude and the large photograph seems to have no purpose.

Why exactly is Ellsworth extending his hand in this way?

Nawlins - a minor correction, planning failures, and other news

The Washington Post issued a correction in its story over the weekend that stated Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco had not declared a state of emergency in New Orleans.

Apparently she did declare a state of emergency on 26 August 2005.

That said, there is certainly more than enough blame to go around for the apparently slow response to Hurricane Katrina.

The primary responsibility still has to fall on the state and municipal officials. It is their responsibility to ensure certain core services, such as law enforcement can survive. It's not like New Orleans hasn't had a recent hurricane emergency.

This link to a 2004 Associated Press story about the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan sounds eerily familiar, except that this time, Mayor Ray Nagin was pretty quick to blame everyone else for his obvious failings.

The SuperDome issue arose in 1998 and again in 2004, just as it did in 2005. The difference this time is that no priority was given to making sure the state-owned facility could actually support 15, 000 with food and water even for a very short period of time.

While it is true that members of the Louisiana National Guard has been largely deployed to Iraq as of October 2004, the United States Department of Defense has other resources available in and around Louisiana that could have filled the role played by the Louisiana Guard. This would have required a bit of co-ordination between Baton Rouge and Washington, but the current political fracas between the Democrats and Republicans over the New Orleans monkey suggests contingency plans were never developed. Spread the blame for that failure around to however it can touch.

There are 3, 700 Louisiana National Guard soldiers in Iraq, according to the Washington Post. They are due to start their normal rotation home this week.

There are currently 58, 000 Active and Guard soldiers in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama providing emergency support to residents affected by Hurricane Katrina.

Local angle: The United States Naval Ship Pollux is one of the U.S. Navy ships providing support in the Gulf. It is carrying fuel for military and civilian emergency agencies. A previous ship carrying that name ran aground on the Burin Peninsula, near St. Lawrence, in the early 1940s.

There is now video available on CNN of water rescue efforts including pictures of bloated corpses floating. Here's a link to the video of a piece of Christiane Amanpour's story. If it doesn't work go to CNN.

05 September 2005

Prayer no substitute for preparation: province lacks emergency plan

Almost four years after the September 11 incident and despite examples of natural disasters in this province and neighbouring provinces over the past five years, Newfoundland and Labrador still does not have a functioning emergency response plan.

Provincial officials have worked in the document since 2001 yet are no closer to finishing it, despite almost 48 months of work.

The provincial response to the 9/11 incident was improvised, despite a federal-provincial training exercise in 1999 which included a scenario involving 30 international commercial passenger flights being diverted to Newfoundland and Labrador airports.

Effective co-ordination of the response was hampered by the chaotic nature of Emergency Measures Organization's operations centre. Daily decision meetings reportedly took place in the command centre and involved at times upwards of 64 people, all of whom had input to the meetings which lasted for hours.

In one incident, a request to National Defence for military camp cots was routed by the Department of Health through Health Canada despite military officials being present in the EMO command centre. Subsequent public comments by both the premier and the provincial cabinet minister responsible for emergency response did nothing other than strain relations with the federal government. In a situation reminiscent of the current situation in New Orleans, their public political criticism of federal authorities was actually rooted in their own organizational failures rather than in any shortcomings of federal support.

The provincial public relations response was a disaster in itself. Emergency public relations involves communicating essential, operational information to news media and the general public. The first media briefing took place over six hours after the incident began, took place in an area that ought to have been closed to news media and gave very little useful information on the provincial response. Subsequent provincial government briefings focused on actions in the metropolitan St. John's area.

In one memorable incident, a CBC host tried repeatedly to get concrete information from the provincial municipal affairs minister on how volunteers could help provincial efforts. His attempts to gain practical information were ignored by the minister who was intent on praising officials for their efforts. This release is typical, for example, with its extensive praise of local efforts and very little practical information on emergency response activities.

For those looking for basic information on the province's emergency plan, the provincial government website contains only this section on the province's Emergency Measures Organization.

By contrast, there is this site from the Nova Scotia government. Among other things, the site contains a great deal of useful advice for individuals on emergency preparedness.

Recent experience with the Titan missile incident demonstrated the fundamental breakdown of the province's emergency response system, particularly as it relates to the identification of potential threats, accurate threat assessment and appropriate response.

No provincial government officials hold valid federal security clearances. Such clearances enable them to routinely access sensitive intelligence on potential threats and would allow them to attend international briefings on emergency response. Provincial officials were excluded from a U.S. government briefing on the Titan missile launch earlier this year solely because they lacked a security clearance.

The struggle for control in Louisiana

Anyone following media coverage of rescue and relief operations in New Orleans will notice the ferocity of complaints by municipal and state officials in Louisiana (all Democrats) aimed at the U.S. federal government and President George Bush (a Republican).

This story, in Saturday's Washington Post, documents the struggle to unify command and control over the rescue efforts.

Louisiana Governor Kathleen Babineau Blanco has stilled not declared a state of emergency in and around New Orleans, almost a full week after the hurricane devastated the region. Despite the ease with which some politicians have been playing up accusations of racism in the federal American response to the hurricane it appears that city government in New Orleans did little if anything to establish an effect emergency response. Blanco reportedly took over 24 hours to review a proposal from President Bush that would have streamlined the command and control structure among city, state and federal authorities trying to conduct emergency rescue and relief operations.

By Friday, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin had reportedly lowered the tone of his rhetoric and was expressing optimism on the emergency response following his meeting with President Bush.

Despite the change of tone, the collapse of local law and order can be traced directly to the mayor's office (which is currently located in the Hyatt Hotel next to the SuperDome). Police reportedly have been forced to scrounge for food and water, weapons and ammunition in an effort to retain some semblance of control. It is incomprehensible that civic officials failed to provide emergency stocks of food and water, let alone weapons and redundant communications that would have allowed police to provide effective service despite the damage suffered by the city.

Two senior police officers have reportedly committed suicide since Katrina devastated the City of New Orleans.

Before anyone jumps to man the barricades in defence of state and city officials, remember that emergency response in a federal system starts at the municipal level, then goes up to the state level and finally to the federal. All must work together, but since Tuesday, both the New Orleans mayor and state officials have been busily tossing the monkey of the disastrous emergency response onto Washington's back. At the heart of the problem appears to be a gross lack of preparedness at the city and state level, coupled with something bordering on incompetence at the State House in Baton Rouge.

In this story from the Army Times, the writer refers to national guard units beginning combat operations in New Orleans. That American military have to refer to their actions as combat operations suggests the extent to which municipal and state officials have lost control of New Orleans.

In a related incident, police escorting civilian engineering contractors to repair damaged levees shot and killed five or six gunmen in New Orleans. The gunmen were part of an armed group who opened fire on the convoy.

04 September 2005

Typhoons hit Gander





Royal Air Force Eurofighter Typhoons made a stopover in Gander this past week and were captured on these digital images by local lawyer and aviation buff Mark Stares.

In the top photo, a Eurofighter from 17 Squadron RAF, the operational evaluation unit makes its final approach into Gander.

In the bottom photo, pilots and ground crew walk away from a parked aircraft.

Military aircrafts of all types routinely make visits to major airports in Newfoundland and Labrador.

02 September 2005

So much for rumours

Rumours are usually nonsense and so it turned out this week that a couple of chatter-bits posted to the Bond Papers were...well...WRONG. They were labeled as rumour and chatter so hopefully no one was unduly misled and the reputation of the Bond papers hasn't suffered.

1. Efford is staying. Based on everything your humble e-scribbler was getting, John Efford was going to pack in his job as federal natural resources minister due to ill health. Instead, Efford decided to hang around with a different schedule that will help him better manage his diabetes.

2. Crap Talk may survive. Rumours that Bill Rowe's afternoon talk show was doomed seem to be wrong as well. Open Line host Randy Simms is seeking re-election to the Mount Pearl city council, so Randy is rightly taking a break so he doesn't have an unfair advantage over his fellow candidates.

Crap Talk host Bill Rowe and Nite line host Linda Swain will be taking turns covering the afternoon show while Bill takes on full-time hosting duties in the morning.

Oh great, we get to hear Bill continue to find every way he can to create an open sore out of Newfoundlanders attitudes to themselves and the rest of the country. Personally, I think VOCM should take emery boards, sandpaper, salt and anything else Rowe has handy. More often than not his information is bogus, although he continues to convince people that this province and its people are little more than a "pimple on the arse" of Canada. That's Bill's phrase by the way, not mine.

Well, as some of my friends are fond of saying, "I am no pimple. I am no arse."

I'd paraphrase Churchill to defend my fellow Newfoundlanders from the jaundiced, miserable and usually hollow presentation made by Danny William's former personal representative to the Lord Minto Hotel:

"Some pimple. Some arse."

What drops from the back end of a male bovine?

I don't know about the rest of my public relations colleagues, but people I know call a story like this BULLSHIT.

Who gives a rats backside if you are getting calls for interviews, Danny? This is the kind of superficial, puff story that makes Williams look like a prima donna, a light weight. Sure it strokes the hell out of his ego. But beyond that it doesn't mean a thing.

Any experienced PR practitioner would recognize this for what it is - irrelevant crap - and kill it off before it went anywhere.

Then again, if you thought the New England governors conference was a success or that having senior comms people waste a day a week monitoring call-ins shows, I guess you'll believe anything.

In the meantime, if this story is the result of the Premier's comms staff feeling self-important because of the media attention, they better get some sense of humility and a sense of perspective real soon.

No matter how you slice it, this story smells of people appointed for their connections instead of their qualifications.

The best man for the job



"Both the premier and I continue to believe that Andy Wells is the ideal candidate [to be chief executive officer of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board] and we will be requesting that he be given primary consideration as this process moves forward."

- Ed Byrne, Minister of Natural Resources, August 25, 2005

Is there something about Ed and Danny we should know?

Cover from The Current, Newfoundland and Labrador's alternative paper.

Photo: Greg Locke, Straylight
Ballgag: Our Pleasure

Hatching, matching and dispatching Mary Walsh

This Macleans piece on Mary Walsh's little sitcom includes a quote from your humble e-scribe.

The best part of the print version are photos by the Spindy's Paul Daly.

Pick up a copy to see what the guy shoots.

John Crosbie - Liberal sleeper

John Crosbie, your long sojourn away from the Liberal Party will soon be over.

Keep up the excellent work. You have managed to work for decades pretending to be a Tory.

Next to Stephen Harper, Crosbie is the strongest factor working in favour of a Liberal majority government next time.


Crosbie on Harper not pretty
The Daily News (Nanaimo)
Thu 01 Sep 2005, Page: A6
Section: Opinion
Byline: Don Martin
Source: CanWest News Service

ST. JOHN'S, Nfld. - As Stephen Harper's warm-and-fuzzy barbeque tour winds down with the defining image being that photo-op disaster of him squeezed into a comical cowboy outfit, the last thing the Conservative leader needs is a deadly burst of friendly fire.

But sniper shots are coming from the top floor of St. John's tallest office building where Conservative father figure John Crosbie looks out at the The Rock's political landscape ... and cringes at what he sees happening.

A "pessimistic'' Crosbie is predicting hard times in the next election for his party, warning that Harper is scaring voters by linking his leadership to the campaign against same-sex marriages while heeding lousy advice from his inner circle.

OK, you're probably saying, so what? John Crosbie's a 74-year-old political curiosity, best known as the former Conservative finance minister whose 1979 budget torpedoed Joe Clark's minority government a few lifetimes ago to the average voter.

But Crosbie still commands attention and respect in the reunited Conservative party, where only 15 months ago he was a huge Harper booster who flirted briefly with the bizarre notion of running against Liberal cabinet minister John Efford before his long-suffering spouse vetoed such silliness.

I am in the middle of a national research project which has put me in contact with business leaders, academics and grassroots Canadians in five provinces.

So let the tape roll on the wit and wisdom of a candid Crosbie, who tells it like it is even though it will give a morale boost to his besieged enemies in the Liberal party.

On the Conservative party's campaign against same-sex marriage: Crosbie believes in the traditional definition of marriage, but argues the time has come to give up the fight to preserve it or risk having it inflict irreversible political damage on the party. "Same-sex marriages have been accepted by the establishment in Toronto and in the courts and in the metropolitan areas, so there's no point in continuing to oppose them. It's very dangerous for the Conservatives to continue opposing same-sex marriage because it reinforces this feeling in people's mind that we're dangerous and that if we get in, you don't know what kind of stupid thing we might do next that would harm people."

On the party's electoral prospects next spring: "The signs are all that we're in danger of not having much of a chance in the next election. It's because the public doesn't think we're a safe alternative. Surely if they thought we were a safe alternative, the polls would have us 20 points ahead, not 20 points behind."

On Stephen Harper: "I supported him as leader and continue to support him, but at the moment he's a politically endangered species which makes us all politically endangered."

On Harper's personal charm: "Among our friends, the women think he's scary. Christ Almighty, Paul Martin is 10 times as scary. But they believe Harper's cold. And he IS cold. He doesn't have human warmth. He's not able to even work a room. He doesn't want to meet people. The thing that saved the Pope (John Paul II), who had some pretty reactionary policies, was that he genuinely wanted to meet people. Unfortunately, Harper needs that, but he hasn't got that at the moment."

On the Conservative party backroom: "I've never come across the likes of those little dictators. Most of them have no experience and try to tell us what we must do. They force us to have nomination meetings before we have suitable candidates lined up to be nominated. This is not the way you do it. He's ill-served by the organizers and paid people who are behind him."

On the future of Canada: "I'm very disappointed and anti-Paul Martin. I believe the system is out of balance and uncompetitive. If we can't get a more competitive system, where the governing parties change from time to time, Canada is in real difficulty."

Well, there you have it. The gospel according to John Crosbie. Unfortunately for Stephen Harper, these harsh observations and this painful analysis comes from Newfoundland. And that makes them Rock-solid.

Efford staying - colour me surprised

This release from John Efford was issued on September 1, 2005 at approximately 6:30 pm, Newfoundland Daylight Savings Time.

Colour me surprised.

Colour me disappointed.

Fire the petroleum farce staff

Some consumers in the province awoke this morning to the shock of an increase in gas prices of around 20 cents per litre.

Those of us paying attention got our gas early and saved a bundle.

Search in vain on the government website prior to the increase to see a news release indicating that the hike in gas prices was coming.

The petroleum products office has long passed the point of being a tolerable charade.

It is beyond a mere fraud.

It is now an intolerable farce.

Close the office.

Lay off the staff or reassign them to more productive work.

The people of the province should not be forced to endure another day of its existence.

Parsons compensation increased

This release yesterday from the provincial government announces an increase in compensation to Gregory Parsons. Mr. Parsons was wrongly convicted of murdering his mother.

Mr. Parsons was represented at one time by Danny Williams, the current premier. There is an interesting comment in the release that given Mr. Parsons' personal situation in 2002, he may have instructed his counsel [not Mr. Williams] to accept a compensation offer that was less than that to which he might be entitled.

Mr. Williams did not represent Mr. Parsons at the time.

While it is laudable that Mr. Parsons is receiving additional compensation, this release raises two issues:

1. The comment on Mr. Parsons' actions in 2002 suggests an improper comment on the counsel he received, if it is indirect or implicit comment.

2. Since Mr. Justice Antonio Lamer has not released his final report into Mr. Parsons' wrongful conviction and hence has not established the scope of government's responsibility in the matter, this money seems to be an effort to forestall additional demands for compensation to which Mr. Parsons' might be properly entitled.

01 September 2005

The New Approach to hand-outs and whining

Doubts about Loyola Sullivan's ability to grasp the picture beyond moving around digits on a page grows with this release on the federal government presence in Newfoundland and Labrador. The release turned into this story on VOCM.

It's hard to know how Sullivan came up with the numbers he prints in the release. Then again, Sullivan has never been straight with people about his own budget numbers. He seems to be able to be in perpetual fiscal crisis despite having gobs of cash coming in from all quarters.

There are two points here:

First, Sullivan's numbers and percentages are wrong.

Second, and more importantly, Sullivan's interpretation, that this represents a massive loss to the local economy just doesn't hold up to logical scrutiny or his own previous statements.

Let's just forget, for the time being, that Sullivan is the guy who, shortly after he took up the finance job, was complaining about the disproportionately large number of public servants in the province.

At the end of Fiscal Year 2004, there were 7, 189 federal public servants in the province, compared to roughly the same number at the end of each fiscal year since 1998. Those figures were obtained by the Bond Papers from the Government of Canada.

Sullivan uses 1990 as the base year for his calculation, likely because that happens to be one of the periods in which federal employment peaked in every province. He claims that federal employment decreased by 39% in Newfoundland and Labrador compared to a national average of 18%. That's a 21% disparity.

Well, at the end of Fiscal Year 1990, there were 415, 414 federal employees across the country. At the end of the last fiscal year, there were 371, 257. That represents 44, 157 fewer positions or about 10.6%.

The total number of Canadians employed by the federal public service is 1.15% of the total population.

In this province, the numbers went from 10, 140 to 7, 189 - a drop of 2, 951 jobs or 29% in the same period.

Still, federal employees in Newfoundland and Labrador represent 1.36% of the population, a proportion higher than Ontario (1.22%) and Quebec (0.98%).

Sullivan also doesn't talk about the increases in federal presence in places like Goose Bay, nor does he talk about the likelihood that the St. John's taxation data centre will be increasing its staffing levels soon and handling work from across the country.

But here's an interesting thing. In Nova Scotia, the 23% drop in federal employees in that province represents a loss of 7, 240 positions. That's more than double the drop in this province in absolute numbers, even though the percentage change is smaller.

Beyond that though, Sullivan claims that those federal job losses totaled up to almost double the reported figure - he says the 2, 774 jobs lost added up to equal 5, 300 jobs. Unfortunately, Loyola doesn't explain why that might be so. Truth is, I doubt he can. Whoever cooked up these digits for Loyola appears to have used typical multipliers for spin-off jobs for the private sector and applied them to public sector jobs.

However, public sector jobs - like say the 16 people at the weather office in Gander - don't produce the same spinoffs in the service and supply sector as a comparable number of jobs in the oil industry, manufacturing or the fishery. That's because the work they do by itself doesn't generate added economic benefit.

Suck a few hundred jobs out of paper manufacturing in central Newfoundland and on the west coast of the island and you are going to get almost double the jobs losses in banking, insurance, office supplies and other support services.

Screw with the fishery needlessly and you'll shag the economy out of hundreds of millions of dollars of real economic activity that brings much-needed foreign exchange into an economy that depends heavily on trade. You'll also muck around with tens of thousands of direct and indirect jobs.

Take a few people out of Gander or the small Public Service Commission office in St. John's and they won't have quite the same effect.

Overall, Sullivan's main argument - that the feds are steadily decreasing their presence in Newfoundland and Labrador - just doesn't add up. Federal job numbers in the province have hovered around the same level for the better part of a decade. The small changes seen recently like Gander, fall within the seasonal fluctuations there have been anyway from month to month.

Beyond that, Sullivan is simply talking through his hat when he argues this province has a right to a "fair share" of federal employees. The same cock-eyed approach led the Mulroney government to create something called the naval Presence in Quebec program. It was a cash fiasco, ripped apart by the auditor general.

No province has a "right" to a proportion of federal jobs. Federal public servants aren't booty. They aren't spoils. They aren't a form of Equalization. Canadians deserve to have their federal services delivered cheaply and effectively. We don't need to fatten the payroll so that we can have people running a navy section in Manitoba.

On a local level, Sullivan should recall the disastrous Tobin policy of relocating public servants to communities across the province. It was poorly conceived, poorly executed and an admission that Tobin had failed completely in his efforts to come up with a single new idea for developing the local economy. Saskatchewan fell into the same trap with equally harsh consequences for Saskatchewan taxpayers.

Sullivan's release shows a few things:

1. Loyola can't do basic math.

2. Loyola can't see the big picture.

3. Loyola and the government of which he is a part are wedded forever to hand-outs from Ottawa - The January Deal (a massive Equalization transfer) and now federal jobs.

Underneath it all, it would appear the provincial government is now in the position Brian Tobin was in after two years in office: totally lacking in a single new idea.

Whining about Ottawa is hardly a New Approach.

Crap Talk dead?

It may only be a rumour but there is talk around St. John's that Bill Rowe's Back Talk afternoon call-in show on VOCM will be dead in the fall.

The show may be killed off because of low audience numbers.

No surprise to those who listen to the show the Bond papers likes to call Crap Talk because...well...the host and most of the callers keep spouting the same old crap day in and day out.

Whither Bill? According to one scenario, Bill will go back to the morning Open Line slot. Randy Simms, who has been a refreshingly new voice in the call-in world will be bumped back to his managerial duties with Steele in favour of the man who has given new meaning to the term cranky in the afternoon.

There is also talk that talks have taken place between Bill and the gang over at Rogers to have Bill host their Sunday night call-in show. The people who pay Rowe's salary in the weekdays wouldn't gain anything by having their boy on television, but Rogers would gain yet another interviewer who wouldn't dare give the current government a hard time over anything.

So far there are no plans to change the name of Out of The Fog to Krysta Loves Danny, largely because that would be too blatant an admission of OOTF's low standards of journalistic impartiality.

31 August 2005

Connie TV ads miss the mark

When you take a look at the August flight of Conservative Party television spots, you can see the handiwork of someone who thinks that the Connie problem is just about image.

You can tell what happened. Someone did some polling. They likely found that Stephen Harper appears to Canadians to be a bit to stiff and unapproachable. They likely found an attitude that Harper runs a one-man band with no input from his caucus.

Yep. Must be an image problem, they concluded, betraying their advertising background.

Their simple answer: a bunch of short TV spots showing the Connies working on policy in August, when everyone else is on vacation. Get a catchy slogan: "Stand up for Canada". Include a couple of member of parliament from visible minorities - but only a couple and feature them in just one spot. Have Steve ask people questions. Shoot the whole thing in a store-front somewhere with floor to ceiling plate glass windows. Get Steve out of his jacket. Or if the jacket is on take off the tie. Lots of smiles. Make jokes about Liberals. Be funky and hip.

Poof, says the advertising team, problem solved. We'll just invent a new image.

Warning bells would be going off in the heads of any reasonably savvy political communicator.

Political communications isn't about image. It's about reputation and credibility.

And that's where the Connie's blew it. Right away, the TV spots look contrived - painfully, obviously contrived. No politicians hold meetings in these glass-front offices. They look and sound fake.

And they are. Utterly fake.

The acting sucks. It should; they are politicians for crying out loud, not actors. Worse, the pols in the vids look uncomfortable - they sound and look like they are reading a prepared script.

The set is bogus. No one would believe that policy gets made on the MuchMusic set. None of these guys would be seen on MuchMusic, especially Steve, who still appears stiff and professorial, like he's lecturing people.

The whole thing takes on the air of those breath-freshener spots that mocked the 1970s cop shows, complete with the fake freeze frame at the end.

But those spots were built around the parody as a way of catching your attention and making you laugh. They want you to remember the brand the next time you buy Clorets. The humour is the hook to get your attention and hold it.

Unfortunately, these Connie spots were supposed to be taken seriously.

Unfortunately for the advertisers in this case, picking the people who will run the country isn't the same as picking toilet paper or breath mints.

The spots are being taken seriously, by Conservatives, but that is entirely predictable. They also get a passing grade from commentators like Paul Wells.

The Connie political challenge is to get past the converted and start speaking to other Canadians. They must win over the Canadians who aren't perpetually in a snit, the ones who don't eat up acres of bandwidth sputtering against the evils of the CBC and the rest of the MSM - the mainstream media.

It's a tough job: the most recent polls show that Paul Martin doesn't even have to show up and he clobbers Stephen Harper as Canadians choice for prime minister. The Blogging Connies response, when they are not pounding at the CBC on their blogs, is to create a flashing button on their sites asking where Paul Martin is.

BFHD, as we used to say in high school. Big fat hairy deal.

And like the flashing button, these TV spots are well wide of the mark for fixing the Connie political problem.

The challenge the Connies face is not about looking different. It is about being different. That's the Zen-like difference between political communications done by an advertiser and political comms run by someone with experience at public relations.

Some Connies have suggested that the party should stop trying to look anything than what the part actually is. Now there's an idea. Start by communicating the substance and not the image. If you want to get people to look at the Connie health care policy, for example, why not have a spot featuring Peter Mackay, DDS? He polls well which reflects his natural ability to communicate sincerely, the cousin of crediblity.

Sure it would make Harper's bum even tighter to give one of his rivals a high profile but just think of it. The approach in one feel swoop would wipe out once and for all the rumours that Steve ruthlessly guards his profile. It focuses on the issue not the surface flash. Rather than the artificial team in the current load of TV spots, Canadians would see an actual team. I'd bet cash that their polling numbers would change for the good.

The problem for the Connies is actually really simple and it's one that no amount of advertising will fix. Reputation and credibility are about what you are, not how you look. Billy Crystal's Fernando was dead wrong.

Canadians can see through any image-driven contrivances like these four little TV spots. In the end, the spots, poorly conceived, poorly executed actually add to the Connie malaise. They've already pegged Steve Harper and unless he actually changes or the party changes the leader for a new one, it is damned near impossible to erase the guy's reputation.

But you don't have to take my word for it. Use the link and go watch the spots for yourselves.

I like the child care policy one. The one with the kids in it working at their colouring books.

or was it writing the Connie election advertising strategy?

Steve might consider hiring them. They sure as hell couldn't do any worse a job than the people he paid for two minutes of Canadians' lives they'll never get back again.

30 August 2005

Loyola and "sound fiscal management" - oxymoron [Revised]

Loyola Sullivan turned himself in knots these past few days trying to explain why the province won't be offering any systematic help to low and fixed income earners struggling with high heating costs this winter.

According to Sullivan, we have a huge debt which grows each day.

Ok Loyola.

But you're the finance minister.

What is your plan to stop the bleeding from our budget, Loyola? That's what people elected you to do. That's what you were talking about when you mention all the financial evil the other guys did when they were in power.

Fixing the financial mess was what you promised to do once you got elected.

Truth is Loyola doesn't have a debt reduction plan. He didn't have a real deficit reduction plan either: that was taken care of by the growing economy.

There is no plan, despite promises made by the Premier two years in a row.

As Loyola Sullivan said earlier this year, the Williams government intends to let the debt grow by about $500 million each year for the foreseeable future. If that approach to sensible financial management lasts for 10 years, as Sullivan mused, the debt of the province will be the better part of $ 20 billion. That's the same size as the economy currently. That would put us in the same mess the Wells government inherited in 1989: a debt load equal to the size of the economy.

Talk about living beyond your means.

In interviews yesterday, Sullivan referred to this as being somehow a matter of sound fiscal management.

I call it grossly irresponsible, especially in light of the Great Offshore Deal [editor's note: That was sarcasm] Danny brought home last year. When we are flush with cash, we should be fixing the long-term debt problem so that when the oil runs out, we can still pay the bills.

Piling up more debt is not the way to do that. It isn't what the Williams administration promised before they got elected.

I can see the campaign slogan now:

Vote for Danny and Loyola for Responsible Irresponsibility.

What people will see is Danny and Loyola: Oxymorons.

Premier makes local oil patch sweaty - but not in a good way

The local oil patch grows increasingly nervous with the bellicose rhetoric from Premier Danny Williams about Hebron development and any future developments.

While the Premier seems intent on playing to the Open Line gallery, there is concern he will talk his way right out of a deal that would see development of the last identified commercial field offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

Of course, since the Premier himself has committed to getting a deal on Hebron development, it makes everyone wonder why he proposed Andy Wells to head the offshore board so that Andy could get the good deals.

Meanwhile, the Premier ignores the red tape and obstacles that prevent the remaining oil that has been discovered offshore besides Hebron from being developed. Knowledgeable people in the local oil industry have repeatedly point to an overall government regime as being the problem. Offshore Angola or in the Gulf of Mexico, the time from discovery to development is measured in months. Here it can be upwards of a decade and more with all the associated costs.

We pay the costs of that delay, incidentally because the oil in the ground has no value. It only is worth cash when we start producing it.

In other places fields of 100 million barrels and smaller are viable. No one in government here - least of all the Premier - is talking about getting that field size to market. They seem content to do, as the Premier did yesterday with the governors and premiers: talk about our resource as growing. Truth is that estimates are growing - but there hasn't been a commercial discovery sine 1984.

Talk is cheap, Premier.

B-17 and P-38 to visit province [UPDATE]

You don't have to be an airplane buff to be excited - I mean really excited - that a fully restored B-17G "Liberty Belle", and a restored P-38 will be visiting the province this week and weekend.

Here's the link to the aircraft website along with a schedule.

The P-38, named "Glacier Girl" was one of a flight of P-38s lost on Greenland and subsequently recovered from beneath tons of ice. Read the story here.

Update - VOCM is reporting that the B-17/P-38 tour has been delayed by Hurricane Katrina.