Q2 2015 Poll Speculation #nlpoli

Corporate Research Associates boss Don Mills has done a good job of teasing the results of his latest poll, due Monday.

"Significant" change in voter intentions, Mills tweeted on Friday and repeatedly over the weekend.

It's all fed a great deal of speculation.  Someone fed the self-styled Hydroqueen internal Liberal polling numbers and she has blogged them and tweeted about them repeatedly. Your humble e-scribbler jumped into another conversation based on the foggy early-morning memory and since that memory was so horribly wrong,  here's a review of the recent poll numbers based on more than memory.

So are those Hydroqueen numbers the sort of results CRA will release?

About how the predictions of further Liberal decline or of a Conservative rise?

Will CRA show any of that?

Probably not.

Politicians and other damn fools #nlpoli

On Wednesday, politicians in Newfoundland and Labrador condemned the federal minister of fisheries for making a decision about the fishery in a province based on politics instead of economics or science.

The politicians were so upset with Gail Shea that they passed a resolution demanding that she allocate a quota of fish to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians based on political rather than economic or scientific reasons.

There was no sense in their resolution that what was sauce Prince Edward Island goose was also sauce  for the Newfoundland gander, if that’s what you are thinking.  Nor was there any sense of hypocrisy or irony or whatever self-awareness it would be that makes one criticise someone else for doing what you then do.

The fact that some of the politicians explained their support for the resolution using false memory only sweetened the humour in the whole affair.

The Persistence of False Information: free electricity version #nlpoli

An exchange on Twitter reminded your humble e-scribbler on Wednesday evening of the power of false information to persist despite either being disproven or, in this case, being an obvious nonsense.

Not surprisingly, the discussion was about Nalcor, Emera,  the Maritime Link and a block of electricity that Nalcor gets under the Muskrat Falls deal.  There is a lot of false information about these subjects that just won’t die.  Let’s just deal with the free block of electricity.

Duff in the Hole #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Dwight Ball’s announcement last week about Liberal Party funding was a good example of how relatively simple mistakes can turn a good-news announcement into a major public relations problem.

Another aspect to the story is a good example of how false information can make the story worse.

Politics, CETA, and the fishery #nlpoli

The European trade deal came up in the House of Assembly on Monday.

Everyone kept to the same lines they've been kicking around for months.

Believe it if you want,  but if you want to find out what is really going on,  check out the interview your humble e-scribbler did with Jamie Baker of the Fisheries Broadcast last week.

-srbp-

Related:

• Province increase CETA demands after crucial agreement (December 2014)
• Abbott and Costello meet the trade deal (January 2015)
• Conservatives abandon ridiculous position on European deal (May 2015)

For want of a nail... #nlpoli

Dwight Ball demonstrated last week how very simple things can turn into problems very quickly. He handed his political opponents a stick they can use to beat him with. The fact they really don;t have much more than innuendo and speculation doesn’t matter. He’s given them a weapon.

Ball confirmed on Friday that the Liberal Party could have released relevant information on the party’s debt repayment on Wednesday.

Ball named the three banks involved in the debt forgiveness deal and indicated the total amount involved.  On Wednesday he had balked, noting there was a non-disclosure agreement in place.

What Ball also confirmed in the process is that he and his team simply weren’t ready on Wednesday for the announcement.  That’s not the first time Ball and his team have made this kind of a simple cock-up.  The simplest way to fix it would be to re-organize the senior end of his office.  Ball needs to bring in some new people, especially ones with significant political experience.  to augment his existing team.

Parting Gifts #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Peter MacKay may have quit federal politics but that didn't stop him from porking up the federally-appointed courts before he left.

On Friday, MacKay appointed former provincial Conservative Party president Cillian Sheahan from Corner Brook to the Trial and Family Division of the Supreme Court of Newfoundland and Labrador.

That was one of about a dozen appointments MacKay made on his last day in office.

-srbp-

More delays in taking out the trash #nlpoli

On Monday,  municipal affairs minister Keith Hutchings announced that the provincial government was setting back the clock on the provincial waste management strategy.

Well, they sort of announced it. 

You see, the news release posted by the government uncommunication elves buried the news under a lot of self-congratulation.

And what they didn’t bury they just left out altogether.

Yesterday #nlpoli

The news should have been good.

Party leader Dwight Ball announced on Wednesday that the Liberals had rid themselves of the debt the party has carried around since the 2003 election. As Ball explained it, the party negotiated with the three banks involved and persuaded them to write off the interest and penalties. The party had then paid off the $500,000 that remained.

The Liberals’ opponents have used the debt as a rod to beat Grit backs. Can’t manage the province’s accounts if you can't handle your own, the Conservatives joked.

As it turns out, that joke was on us: the Conservatives couldn’t handle the public accounts themselves. They promised to pay down the debt and make everything right. Instead, and starting from Danny Williams, they racked up debt after debt. They spent every nickel the provincial coffers could suck in and borrowed more besides.

The party debt was a big cloud hanging over the Liberals’ heads. Getting rid of it was supposed to be great news.

And it would have been had Dwight not buggered up the announcement.

Conservatives abandon ridiculous position on European trade… again #nlpoli

In January, trade minister Darin King wrote a letter to his federal counterpart about the European trade deal.
King said the provincial government would:

1. withdraw from any trade talks OTHER than the one about the European trade deal, and,
2. should “the federal government fail to honour the terms of the June 2013 agreement to establish a fisheries fund, you will appreciate that the Province will reconsider its support for CETA.”

On Tuesday, King announced the provincial government would:

1. resume participation in all the ongoing trade talks, and,
2. accept the European trade deal, but not the bit on minimum processing requirements.

That last one will leave Canada open to a challenge by Europeans if - and only if - the provincial government ever invokes minimum processing requirements in dealing with a European company. There’s not much danger of that since the provincial government has been granting more and more exemptions from the out-dated policy.

Besides, the federal government is already working on a mechanism to pass the cost of any damages from a trade dispute on to the province that caused them. They started work on that little gem after the current Conservative administration in this province violated the North American free trade deal and seized hydro-electric assets belonging to three companies under an entirely false pretense.

When Darin King said the government would “let the chips fall where they may” he knew full well that the provincial government would take it in the neck if it ever used the minimum processing requirements provisions of current legislation.

What you have here is a climb down. The provincial government position was always a transparent pile of nonsense. As CBC’s access to information research confirmed last week, the provincial government has been granting more and more exemptions from the minimum processing regulations. In practical terms, that means they have already abandoned MPRs and won’t use them to trigger any CETA problems.

What local media still haven’t reported is that the heart of this dispute has been a political fraud by the provincial government. It tried to radically alter the deal in 2014. The federal government rebuffed the provincial government’s effort to rejig the deal. Faced with no prospect of success in its scam, the provincial government abandoned its ludicrous position.

Both the Liberal and NDP criticised the government for submitting to federal perfidy. Nothing could be further from the truth, of course, but the truth never stopped a politician in this province from opening his mouth before. Tuesday was no exception.

Incidentally, the letter from King to his federal counterpart as well as the news release that King issued on Tuesday are both pretty vague about what the provincial government is actually doing. King explained the details to reporters.

This is the second time the provincial Conservatives have abandoned a stupid position on the European trade talks. The first was Danny Williams’ refusal to take part in the talks in the first place Williams claimed he needed to protect the seal hunt.

-srbp-

The party is over #nlpoli

There are times when you wonder why anyone pays attention to a crowd like the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council.

They showed up in St. John’s on Monday to tell us that the major projects that have been driving the economy are winding down.

And they charged $230 to anyone who wanted to show up for that insight or for the other one quoted in the CBC online story:  the “party had to end.”

APEC?

No.

Try PIFO.

Penetrating Insight into the F**king Obvious.

Everything will be fine. Or not. #nlpoli

This pretty picture shows a very ugly problem.

Look at the point (2008) where the red and blue lines separate.  The area in between represents the annual deficit the provincial government has been running. It is the difference between the amount government spent (the blue line) and the amount of income the government had from everything that wasn’t oil and minerals.

All that space in between those two lines is debt.  It is either borrowing from the banks and other lenders or it is borrowing from ourselves through spending all our one-time oil money. If the government spends as they indicated in the budget, about two thirds of that gap on the far right is borrowing from the banks.  One third is from oil money.

Just for a bit of fun,  let’s project ahead into the future a bit to see what might happen.  We’ll use the oil price projections the government used.  And we’ll use the most recent oil production figures from the offshore board. You might be surprised at the results.

A week of truth for the Conservatives #nlpoli

Not that we didn’t know the provincial government had already granted exemptions to its supposedly sacred minimum fish processing requirements, but CBC this week gave us an insight into just how often the government has waived the MPRs.

In 2010,  the provincial government approved 11t exemptions out of 19 requests.  In the last six months of 2014 alone,  it approved 27 out of 29 requests. 

That’s quite a jump.

The wild spurt of exemptions came at exactly the same time  - ironically enough - that Premier Paul Davis was insisting that MPRs were an essential part of the government’s efforts to keep fish processing jobs in the province.

They were so important that he and his colleagues would only give them up for a $280 million slush fund of federal cash controlled by the provincial government.

TBT: a cabinet divided #nlpoli

The latest case of the Premier and one of his ministers saying different things can’t be put down to brain farts.

You also cannot dismiss this because fisheries minister Vaughan Granter can’t speak in short spurts or whatever the heck that line was from last weekend’s On Point.

This one is a case of two cabinet ministers saying two different things.

Oil Royalty and Oil Price Forecasts (2015) #nlpoli

Don Mills says people in Newfoundland and Labrador have a false impression of the state of the provincial economy.

Wade Locke says Mills is full of it.

To bolster his argument, such as it is, Locke released a raft of pretty charts a couple of weeks ago.

One of them included a slide showing projected offshore oil production. (right)

Brain Farts #nlpoli

Some people have a hard time with the idea that a great many political decisions are not the product of deep thinking, extensive research, and agonizing debate.

They come from brain farts.

You can hear that pretty clearly in the most recent episode of On Point. The political panel talked about a couple of cock-ups by the Conservatives last week.

 In among the few nose-pullers the panel tossed out, the basic elements of the story were there.

Political Pandermonium #nlpoli

You can tell the election is already going on.  You can tell because of what some of the political workers are doing.

The Liberals are going door-to-door.  They are meeting voters.  They are asking for their votes.  Then the campaign workers write on Twitter and Facebook.about the “glorious day” of campaigning  they’d had.

Politicians tweet as well. The candidates tweet about their campaigning. The elected politicians tweet about the meeting they went to, or a government comment, or questions in the House of Assembly. 
Taking a lesson he learned from Reform Conservative turned Grit turned provincial Conservative Steve Kent, provincial Connie turned Grit Paul Lane goes places,  takes a picture of himself there, tweets it, and then frigs off somewhere else. The selfie makes it look like he stayed at the event.  That’s how he can be in so many places at the same time.

Lane also posts ridiculous pictures like this one about the May 24 weekend.  It’s a stock photograph of an Adirondack chair on a lake somewhere else in North America.

He used the same picture in a string of tweets over the weekend. People on Twitter made fun of Paul.  It looks like Lane had these pictures made as fridge magnets. Paul needs to decide if he has a moustache or not.

Owing it forward #nlpoli

The provincial government will balance its books this year by borrowing $2.1 billion.

Lots of people don’t know that,  as Michael Caine would say.

The government included in its budget plans this year a hike in the HST of two percent.

The tax hike will bring in $200 million.

That $200 million will just about cover the interest in one year on all the new debt the provincial government plans to add between now and 2021.

The $2.1 billion this year is the tip of a very big iceberg of new debt, you see. The new debt will go on top of the other $12 billion we already owe. The total cost just to pay the interest on that debt in 2021 will be $1.0 billion.

When people found out about the HST hike, they lost their minds.

Fast forward to 2017.

Never heard anyone say that before #nlpoli

“This may be our last shot at it,” said captain of industry Paul Antle this week as he set off to find other captains of industry to help him save the province. .

Gotta get off the oil, see. The Tories have frigged everything up..

Not so very long ago another rich guy-turned-politician said pretty much the same sort of thing.

The Liberals had cocked things up so badly – said captain of industry Danny Williams - that he was trying to get oil royalties that Ottawa was taking.

They weren’t really doing that, as Williams later admitted, but hey,  why let the facts get in the way of a good story.

“Williams provided [Macleans scribbler Paul Wells with] chapter and verse of his battle with Ottawa for a bigger share of the wealth generated by offshore oil. He passionately advanced the idea that this is his province's last, best hope to become a have rather than a perennial have-not.”  That was December 2004..

-srbp-

And it’s only Wednesday #nlpoli

Imagine, if you can, what it must be like to be Sandy Collins.  Sandy is a very young man who is -  right now -  living the first line of his epitaph.

Imagine, if you can do two at one,  what it must be like to be Veronica Hayden.  Veronica is Paul Davis’ principal assistant.

Both took to Twitter last weekend to harass Liberal leader Dwight Ball over the fact that he seemed to be saying contradictory things.

They must have been feeling very proud, strong, and determined.

And then it was Monday.

A Memorial at Gallipoli #nlpoli

The provincial government announced four years ago that a caribou memorial at Gallipoli would be part of the Honour 100 commemorations to make the 100th anniversary of the First World War.

For those who don’t know,  the Newfoundland regiment fought its first battles on the Turkish peninsula from September 1915 to January 1916.  Gallipoli is the only major battle site from the First World War that doesn’t have a caribou memorial.

That’s why the provincial government announcement in 2011 was such welcome news.

That’s also why it came as such a disappointing shock to so many people on Monday to learn that not only had the provincial government scrapped the memorial but that they had done so because they could not find $500,000 in the budget to cover the cost. That is precisely what odds and sods minister Darin King told the House.

When is a cut not a cut? #nlpoli

A couple of years ago, the province’s auditor general noted that a Crown agency responsible for developing an integrated health information system was paying salaries to its employees that were way outside provincial government guidelines.

The Telegram reported last fall that the problem was still unresolved 18 months after the auditor general issued his report. This was no small matter. Salaries grew 354% between 2007 and 2012, according to the Telegram. In one case, the salary for a senior executive member jumped by 119%.

Last week, and in the wake of an updated report by the province’s auditor general, Canadian Press reported that health minister Steve Kent had cut salaries at NLCHI. They’d save $50, 000 in one case and altogether the salary cuts would save $330,000.

Small problem.

Ethnic identity economics #nlpoli

Wade Locke and Don Mills are two of the faces most associated with the current Conservative administration in Newfoundland and Labrador, aside from the politicians, that is.

Mills played a key role in Danny Williams administration.  Mills polling firm provided government with quarterly surveys.  Williams also tried to manipulate Mills’ survey results for questions on local politics that Mills used to market his research company.

The quarterly polling was key to Williams efforts to silence dissent and maximize his own freedom of political action.  The more popular Williams became, the less likely were any opposition politicians or news media to question his decisions. 

And for everyone else, the Conservative message was that any dissidents were out of step with the majority of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.  Mills’ polling purportedly showed that Williams and his party were popular to an unheard of degree.  “He’s right because he’s popular and he’s popular because he is right,”  was a common Conservative talking point.

That’s why it has been so interesting the past few months that Mills has been criticising the provincial Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Trends: corpse kicking after a lost decade of delusion #nlpoli

Don Mills is the latest fan of the provincial Conservatives to turn on them savagely.

The St. John’s Board of Trade had Don back to deliver a luncheon speech this week.  According to CBC,  Mills said:

"The downside of Danny Williams, and I have a lot of respect for him, is that he doubled the provincial budget within that timeframe too," …  "He left the province with a structural budget problem that is going to be difficult to fix."

Mills also endorsed the private sector as the engine of economic growth, something Williams firmly opposed.

A decade ago, Mills couldn’t say enough about Williams the Wonderful.  Now,  Mills cannot distance himself enough from Old Twitchy and his legacy of what Mills calls “a structural budget problem.”

The Fourth Party #nlpoli

A Telegram editorial on Wednesday contained a curious comment.  

The subject was news that broke this week about the provincial government;s energy corporation.  Two senior corporate officials are refusing to testify in a court case in Quebec over contending interpretations of the 1969 power contract between Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation and Hydro-Quebec.

Nalcor is refusing to respond to the Quebec court’s order, insisting that the order must come from a court in this province.  Now the entire court case is extremely important because it is crucial to Nalcor’s entire scheme for Muskrat Falls.  The fact that Nalcor is thumbing its nose to a legal process that it is a party to, through its majority ownership of CFLCo is both troublesome and needlessly offensive.

But that’s not the curious point from the editorial.  Whoever wrote the commentary added this bit toward the end:

It’s possible they are simply mirroring the intransigence of their Quebec counterparts to co-operate with actions in this province — as, for example, Hydro-Québec did in refusing to participate in PUB hearings on the water management agreement.

The problem with the statement is that it simply is not true.

Austerity #nlpoli

All this talk of austerity, gutting the public service….

Then you look at the salary costs, from the provincial budget.

There’s something that just doesn’t add up.

-srbp-

The Red and the Black: budgets and politics #nlpoli

The annual budget is probably the most political document of any government in a Westminster style parliament like ours.

At its simplest and most obvious level the budget is the formal statement of a government’s priorities.  Once approved by 1the legislature, it gives government the legal authority to spend money.

The budget is, in that sense,  the most obvious display of what political scientist David Easton defined as politics:  the authoritative allocation of values.

There’s more politics to the budget than just that, however.

Fearful Symmetry #nlpoli

There are a couple of constables in an office over in the basement of the old Memorial College building at Fort Townshend, right next to where the USO building used to be.  They handle all the mysterious calls about weird goings on,  sort of like a local version of the X-Files.

So the scuttlebutt has it at the nearby Timmies,  the boys got a call Thursday afternoon about the time Ross Wiseman was reading his budget speech.  The workers over a Colonial Building said they saw two fellows come out of the old House of Assembly Chamber,  arm-in-arm. 

There was one older fellow, a bit on the round side,  who walked with a limp.  The other fellow walked very straight and had a really high collar on his shirt.  Sorta like Don Cherry would wear one of the workers said.

The two fellows went out the front door of the building, the workers inside said.  The only problem was they didn’t open the door.  They just walked through it.

Conservatives stay the debt-building course #nlpoli

Budget 2015 offered absolutely no surprises.

On major areas the Conservatives continued their policy of spending more than the provincial treasury can afford.  That’s been their trade-mark since 2003 and it became etched in stone in 2009.

As SRBP forecast a couple of weeks ago, the Conservatives raised a modest amount of money through a two percent hike in the provincial sales tax and a variety of small fees.  They added some new tax brackets at the upper end of the income scale.  The small twist in that one came from the actual release of the proposal by Memorial University’s economics department.  They recommend an improved rebate scheme to transfer the additional tax revenue to lower income residents.

Other than that, the Conservatives borrowed heavily. The deficit is a record for any government since Confederation. Your humble e-scribbler knew it would be bad.  It was worse than imagined.  That’s because – contrary to the forecast – they didn’t reduce capital works spending.

Lots of people are focused on the tax increases.  They amount to slightly more than than 10% of the total deficit. In the bigger scheme of things it is nothing.  It is just laughable for anyone to call this budget “tough”. 


Let’s look at some specific points.

The little things will get you #nlpoli

Maybe someone can point to this information somewhere please.  Maybe your humble e-scribbler missed it.

But  in the past couple of days, there’s been a simple number missing from the discussion of long-term care beds in Newfoundland and Labrador.

How many do we need?

Seems like a fairly obvious question.

Both Premier Paul Davis and health minister Steve Kent pointed to the current problem with chronic care patients taking up acute care beds.  That’s been happening for decades. They used a number of 237 as the number of beds being occupied in acute care facilities by patients needing long-term care.

But that isn’t all the demand.  That’s just the stuff that they actually have right at the moment.

So how many long-term beds do we need?

Yes. The government has big financial problems #nlpoli

Yet another academic paper emerged on Tuesday that pointed out that the provincial government has a big financial problem caused by following the flawed policy of spending all the money it takes in, plus more besides.

Don’t take that as a dismissal of the paper by University of Calgary professor  Ron Kneebone. To the contrary,  Kneebone’s paper adds yet more weight to the argument offered by a few people in this province since about 2006 or so. 

Taken together with the recent report by the Conference Board of Canada on the province’s economic competitiveness and you have a pretty strong indictment of the Conservative/Lockean policy the provincial government has been following since 2003.

Contending Political Strategies #nlpoli

Starting last Friday, the ironically-named Conservatives currently running the place started holding a series of “pre-budget” announcements.

They started with news that to deal with the massive financial crisis they would be dumping 77 and a half teaching positions in the provincial school system.  About twice that many would retire, so the school boards in the province would only hire enough teachers to fill half the empty slots.  To make that fit with the declining student enrolment,  the school boards would adjust the allowed class sizes by one student per teacher for grades 4 to 6 and by two students per teacher for grades 7 to 9.

Other than that, no change in staffing.

On Monday, the finance minister announced that the massive financial problem the government is facing led the government to cut the public service by zero real people.

Hysteriana #nlpoli

The response to the proposed boundaries for districts in the House of Assembly has been…what’s the word for it? … oh yes,  totally off-the-wall, batshit crazy.

On the Burin peninsula you have a bunch of people who claim that having two members represent Marystown instead of the current one member is an unprecedented tragedy of biblical proportions,  The town will be split in two, they claim.

Presumably families will be separated, unable to speak to one another across the giant zone of barbed wire and land mines that the northern district will erect between the southern district.  Berlin.  North and South Korea.  Right here.

You know things are going badly when… #nlpoli

… you launch your election campaign at at huge fundraiser and your signature policy announcement gets slaughtered on Twitter within seconds of the words leaving your lips.

Yes, friends,  Paul Davis told the world he will create some kind of savings fund from oil royalties.

In 2021.

If, and only if,  they can manage to balance the books by then.

And of course, only if Paul and/or the humourously named Conservatives can get re-elected not once but twice between now and then.

A number of people pointed that out immediately on Twitter on Wednesday night.

Another little thing that stood out #nlpoli

From Tuesday’s throne speech, here’s another little passage buried away, that could prove to be one of the most significant parts of any throne speech in a long time:

Our government is developing Newfoundland and Labrador's first Open Government Action Plan, reflecting the best 'open government' practices in the world. The plan will nurture a culture of openness within the government by promoting access to information and data and enhanced dialogue and collaboration on initiatives. Under this plan, Newfoundland and Labrador will become, by 2020, one of the most open and accessible jurisdictions anywhere in the world.

-srbp-

The little things that stand out #nlpoli

Throne Speech 2015 was the kind of document you’d expect from a group of politicians who are out of new ideas.

People are making a big deal out of the review of the provincial curriculum for K-12 schools.  That’s what the folks in the education department do for a living.  It’s nothing new.

The promise that the review will produce a 21st century curriculum is such a cliche that it is laughable, given that we are in the second decade of the new century.

Not very impressive, is it?

Pre-emptive rebuttal #nlpoli

This excerpt from Tuesday’s federal budget speech seems aimed at province's like Newfoundland and Labrador where the government promised the same day that they’d be piling up more debt on top of their current record debt levels until at least 2021:

Maintaining Fiscal Balance in the Federation

There is no fiscal imbalance between the federal government and the provinces. A fiscal imbalance could be created when federal transfers to provinces and territories are significantly cut and the federal tax burden is increased at the same time. The federal government has adopted the exact opposite approach. Since 2006, the Government has pursued a low-tax plan to support job creation and economic growth. As part of this plan, the Government has increased major transfers to provinces and territories, reduced taxes on individuals, families and businesses, and balanced the budget. Budgetary pressures faced by provinces and territories are due to their own spending plans.

Federal, provincial and territorial governments in Canada each have access to all of the tools necessary to deliver the public services under their respective areas of responsibility and manage their public finances responsibly. Each level of government is accountable to their residents for taxing and spending decisions.

All levels of government must be responsible stewards of taxpayer dollars and control public spending to achieve balanced budgets. Provincial and territorial governments have access to virtually all of the same sources of revenue as the federal government. In addition, provincial and territorial governments have other significant revenue streams such as royalties from natural resources and profits from lotteries and gaming that, with limited exceptions, do not generally benefit the federal government.

-srbp-

The problem with no problem #nlpoli

Dwight Ball is the latest Liberal to emerge from the candidate protection program.  He popped up on NTV on Monday evening to tell us all two things:

First, he thinks there should be an inquiry into the Dunphy shooting.  He made up some nonsense about the need for an imaginary process that supposedly had to play out before he revealed the real Liberal position.  After telling us about Step One:  the Dunphy family grieving,  and then Step Two the two investigations that aren’t finished,  he could now announce Step Three, namely that he will appoint an inquiry when he is premier.

Not gonna call on the Conservatives to do it now. Nope. Gonna wait until he is on the 8th.  If that happens. And, allowing that he might not get to be Premier until October 2016, that could be a long wait for an inquiry that could begin soon and be finished by this fall.

Then, of course, you have to recall that on Friday,  the official Liberal position was that anyone calling for an inquiry now is just playing politics with this tragedy.

You can see a few pretty obvious problems with the latest Liberal position on the Dunphy inquiry. But at least  the Liberals are finally accepting the need for an inquiry.  They are going to be the butt of more than a few Conservative and New Democrat jokes but at least they are finally in the right spot.

The Political Game of Stupidity #nlpoli

Last week,  the provincial Liberals came out of the candidate protection program to talk about the Dunphy shooting.  Liberal justice critic Andrew Parsons told Newfoundlanders and Labradorians that his party thought it was too soon to talk about any type of further inquiry into the tragic shooting death of Don Dunphy beyond what is going on at the moment.

And besides, as Parsons’ put it, “I think to just jump out and (call for an inquiry) right now is just playing politics.”

Liberal candidate Paul Antle echoed Parsons’ sentiments on Twitter.  “ For the love of God let's do what's right by the family and keep politics out of it, wrote Antle.  “Let the process and not politics determine the course and see where it leads.”

Too bad for the Liberals, then, that Erin Breen, the lawyer for the Dunphy family, made it plain last week that the family wants a public inquiry into Don Dunphy’s death.  They just want it after the preliminary investigations are out of the way.

The result was that the Liberal comments last week were monumentally stupid whether as politics or policy..

Has anyone seen the Liberals lately? #nlpoli

This editorial by Craig Westcott originally appeared in The Pearl newspaper and is re-produced here with permission.

Two of the most serious issues to hit Newfoundland and Labrador in some time occurred over the past two weeks and on neither one of them was the provincial Liberal Party prepared to perform its duty. Neither the leader, nor any MHA, was available to give guidance, offer comment, or suggest any indication of the government-in-waiting’s thinking.

The first, and more serious issue, was the tragic shooting of Don Dunphy, who was killed after the Premier’s Office referred one of his social media comments to Paul Davis’ bodyguard detail for investigation.

The tragedy raises fundamental questions about public safety, political management of the police and an individual’s basic freedom to comment on political issues and express dissent without fear of receiving a visit from the police or being blacklisted by the government. How the police visit led to Mr. Dunphy’s death is a mystery that has yet to be explained. That the tweet in question led to a police visit is disturbing. It contained no threat to the premier or anyone else. On that basis, the police visit to his home was a contravention of Mr. Dunphy’s human rights.

The circumstances connected to the killing of Mr. Dunphy question the integrity of our justice and political systems and threaten democracy itself. And yet neither Liberal Leader Dwight Ball nor any of his caucus members have stepped forward to offer their assessment and recommendations. They have scurried into hiding like bats at the approach of daylight. Up to the time of this writing, not a peep has escaped their lips since Mr. Dunphy was shot and killed by the premier’s body guard.

The other issue that has driven the Liberals into hiding is the so-called House of Assembly ‘reform.’ The commission charged with chopping eight districts and redrawing the electoral map unveiled its proposed scheme last week.

NDP Leader Earle McCurdy was out early and often pointing out the flaws in the ‘reform,’ especially when it comes to gutting representation in rural Newfoundland. The Liberals supported the PC government in its unexpected, rash and ill-considered proposal to reduce the legislature.

It was a desperate ploy by Premier Davis to delay the long overdue provincial election and the Liberals fell for it.

Perhaps that’s partly why most of them have lost the use of their voice boxes. The more likely reason, however, is that the proposed new boundaries sets up the Liberals for some internal dog fights over district nominations, even between the leader and a fellow MHA in the newly proposed district of Gros Morne. The only Liberal to step forward with a genuine  comment as of Tuesday was MHA Jim Bennett.

The Liberals’ poor performance when it comes to addressing key issues is not new. Their stand on the multibillion dollar boondoggle that is Muskrat Falls has been vacillating, confusing and, given their failure to oppose a giveaway of gigantic and historic proportions, irresponsible.

Similarly, they have failed to press Davis about his various tricks to delay the election – which according to the electoral law brought in by Danny Williams, called for the vote to have been held by this past January, due to the resignation in January 2013 of Premier Kathy Dunderdale. When Davis told the CBC recently that he was looking at delaying the election yet again, until after the federal vote on October 19, the Liberals maintained silence.

Their reticence is inexplicable. Paul Davis’ PCs have shown themselves to be incompetent, untrustworthy and in disarray. They are unworthy of government.

Surprisingly then for this late in the game, the question begs to be asked: If Dwight Ball’s Liberals are incapable or unwilling to do their job as the people’s loyal Opposition, how can they be trusted to take on government?

Given their timidity, the Liberals are not so much a government in waiting as they are a party in hiding.

-srbp-

Goldilocks and the three mayors #nlpoli

Almost a week after we all got a peek at the new provincial electoral boundaries,  things have settled down in some areas and the insanity has exploded in others.

Over on the political side,  things have largely settled down.  The Liberals, for example have a raft of nominations to re-run but there’s no sign of any significant problems.  Sure, there are pissed off people, but in the long run things should work out. 

On the west coast, every incumbent or nominated candidate should be able to find a home. Your humble e-scribbler made a mistake on Monday:  there are actually enough seats in the new configuration for Gerry Byrne,  Stelman Flynn, and Ed Joyce to find a spot.

Jim Bennett is doing the smart thing and looking for a seat without a Liberal incumbent where there’s a good chance he could win. He’s looking at Terra Nova, according to media reports, and the current Conservative incumbent - Sandy Collins - is eyeing Gander.  Ditto Jeff Marshall, who has decided to run in Ferryland district now that the old Kilbride district is gone. 

Minority Report #nlpoli

One of the police officers responsible for the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary’s Twitter presence did an interview with CBC’s Anthony Germain last Friday.

The online CBC story that came out of the interview had an interesting set of comments in it. Constable Geoffrey Higdon said:

“People think Facebook or Twitter is different in how we traditionally police. It's actually very much the same. In a sense, it's no different than someone writing a threat to someone, or to an organization, on a wall in a bathroom or a public place. And we would investigate that and treat that seriously, until we determine that there is no threat."

Writing something on Twitter is like writing something on a bathroom wall.

Got that?

Politics, the police, and tragedy #nlpoli

Last October,  Premier Paul Davis appointed Lynn Moore to his new advisory council on crime.  Moore is in private practice these days but, as the little profile Davis’ office appended to their announcement of her appointment shows,  Moore spent five years as the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary’s in-house lawyer.

She’s also been known to write the odd letter or two to the editor of the local papers.

Last October, for example, Moore felt compelled to write to the editor of theindependent.ca to explain why she thought that the province wouldn’t turn into a police state now that a former police constable was the Premier.  Such thinking was the result of bias and elitism,  according to Moore.

Last weekend, Moore sent another letter to the gang at the Indy.  This time,  she tried to tie the death of Don Dunphy to what Moore called “boneheaded” decisions like the Liberal one 20 years ago that put one cop in a car instead of two.

Political Boundary Issues #nlpoli

Some people thought that the electoral boundaries commission wouldn’t get its job done within 120 days.

On Friday, those people found out that was a pretty silly hope on their part.  That’s the day the commission released its preliminary maps of the new 36 districts on the island.  The district maps appeared on the Internet around 11:00 AM and by noon the truly hard-core political nerds had looked at the maps and sized them up.

Here are some quick observations on the boundaries and initial reactions to them.

The week from hell #nlpoli

You gotta feel for police chief Bill Janes and the rest of the men and women of the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary.

All this happened between Sunday, April 5, 2015 and Thursday April 9, 2015:

• An RNC officer investigating a complaint by the Premier’s Office about an online comment shoots and kills the interview subject during a confrontation.
• A former civilian employee convicted of tipping off the subject of a drug investigation about the police operation appeals her nine month sentence for obstruction of justice.
• A Provincial Court judge in Corner Brook sentenced a constable to four months for making indecent telephone calls and 10 months for misleading police during their investigation of the indecent telephone calls.
• The Crown Prosecution Service is reviewing an RNC internal investigation of a senior non-commissioned officer for his actions in the indecent telephone call investigation.  The internal investigation found no no grounds to lay charges against the NCO.
• A constable who has been unpaid leave for two and a half years was arrested on Thursday and charged with two counts of uttering threats to kill or harm a woman and two counts of uttering threats to cause damage to property and of damaging the property.  Janes has ordered an internal investigation into the incident. 

-srbp-

The irresponsible rush to judgment #nlpoli

For those not involved but deeply concerned about the events in Mitchell’s Brook on Easter Sunday, one of the more disturbing aspects of the Dunphy shooting has been the ease with which a relatively small number of people have taken up sides on the shooting without much in the way of evidence.

The rush to judgment has been equally easy both for those unduly keen to declare the shooting was “by the book” as for those who see the shooting as a political assassination,  murder of an injured worker, or a sign of what will come  under the federal government’s controversial anti-terror legislation. 

At the same time,  official sources have decided to say very little.  They shouldn’t discuss the subject of the investigation itself.  That would be inappropriate and both the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have shut down any extraneous information.  The only official comment is coming from the detachment handling the investigation.

The official vacuum extends much winder than it should though.  There’s a complete absence of factual information about the type of investigation, its scope,  or the actors involved in this incident.  Basic information would kill off most of the commentary out there coming from all sides. 

The result is that the public is misinformed.   They aren’t getting a full picture.

For the Quebec lovers #nlpoli

We’ve got two recent pieces on events in Quebec.

Don Macpherson explains why the student “strikes” aren’t really strikes at all.

And for all those people still cheering about the great student resistance to austerity in Quebec,  Paul Wells explains what austerity in Quebec means.

-srbp-

The Dunphy Shooting: serious questions #nlpoli

Question Number 1:  Who has been trying to spin the story by feeding both David Cochrane and Fred Hutton with confidential information?

The standard police position is to withhold all information about officer-involved shootings as part of the investigation.

That’s the position Royal Newfoundland Constabulary chief Bill Janes took at his news conference on Monday morning about the death of Donny Dunphy.

Yet, both VOCM and CBC reported information on Sunday evening and early Monday morning about the fatal police shooting in a rural community that could have only come from either very highly placed political sources or police officers very close to the incident and the investigation.

Here’s the first line from Cochrane’s first story:

CBC News has learned that an officer of the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary, who was at the scene of the fatal shooting on Sunday in Mitchells Brook, NL, was there to investigate an alleged threat against Premier Paul Davis.

Other reports indicated that the officer shot Dunphy after Dunphy produced a “long gun” on the lone police officer there.

All those details could only have come from the officer who shot Dunphy, someone else who was on the scene at the time of the shooting, one of the investigating officers, or a senior political staffer who had been briefed on the incident by police.

Who has been leaking information?

Soothsayer #nlpoli

Wade Locke has had a profound impact on public policy in this province like no academic since Parzival Copes.

Locke has been intimately involved with Conservative policy since 2003.  He has provided advice to both the oil industry and to the provincial government and its energy company Nalcor.  He’s also acted as a public commentator on economic issues, often simultaneously and without having the conflict of interest inherent in such a position identified for the audience.

If you aren't on holiday somewhere,  take a look at this interview  Wade Locke did with Roger Bill of BellAliant’s community channel.  Wade’s comments will tie into a couple of posts coming later this week.

-srbp-

The New Chainsaw Earle #nlpoli

Carol Furlong had the good fortune to be the head of the province’s largest public sector union at a time when the provincial government had more cash than it knew what to do with and was prepared to buy support from anyone, anywhere, at any price.

Now that the bills for the Conservatives’ profligacy are coming due,  the people who profited from it are rightly nervous that they will be asked to pay up.

The fellow they elected to replace Furlong – Jerry Earle – has promised to be more aggressive in dealing with government.  He appears to be a reactionary union boss of the old fashioned kind.  In his first scrum with reporters,  Earle promised to make himself the official opposition to government.

While everyone in the province ought to take notice of the NAPE presidential election two politicians in particular need to pay particular attention.

Rumpole and the Judge’s Wage #nlpoli

How hard can it be to figure out what Provincial Court Judges should get paid to do their work dispensing justice all around the province?

Apparently, it can be quite difficult.

There’s a teeny amendment bill in the House that sets a new date for a report from a commission that has to be set up to figure out the judges’ pay and benefits:

(1.2) Notwithstanding subsection (1), the next report required under subsection (1) after September 30, 2010 shall be presented to the minister not later than December 31, 2015.

Once the thing gets through the House,  this “Act is considered to have come into force on September 29, 2014.”

That’s six months ago.

What the heck has been going on all this time?

The sky is falling. Or not. #nlpoli

First they claimed the budget consultation would be way later than usual.

So your humble e-scribbler worked it out. 

Turns out it wasn’t later than usual.

Then they said the budget would be way later than usual.

End of April or early May? 

Turns out that while the budget usually shows up around the end of March,  the Tories brought down two back-to-back budgets in April a few years ago.

Premier Paul Davis tied the provincial budget to the federal one and last week the feds started talking about a budget in May. 

Then there’s the Doom and Gloom forecasts of every public sector union in the province.  The Conservatives are going to sell everything,  cut the rest, and fire everyone else.

More like a snapshot than a panorama #nlpoli

Last week, a group called Samara released the results of its research on Canadians and politics.  Democracy 360 they called it.

The media locally covered it, if for no other reason than it showed that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians trailed the country in things like donations to political parties.  Didn’t fit our perception that we all love our politics, some reporters said.

One of the news stories went to Memorial University and talked to students. Results are shocking said one student politician. Students are really politically engaged, apparently.  They talk about politics a lot.

Democracy 360 and the coverage of it are more good examples example of why it pays to look at the details to find out what is going on.

More of the same. It’s the economy. And, … #nlpoli

Past behaviour is a good indicator of future behaviour.

If that’s the case, then lots of people are getting their knickers in a very great bunch over nothing when it comes to the budget.

The Conservatives set their course with Wade Locke’s prosperity plan. Here are the key elements, as SRBP laid out in 2013

• Government will budget for annual deficits of about $500 million (accrual)/$1.0 billion (cash), if necessary.
• The money to cover that deficit will come from borrowing.  That is, government will borrow from lenders, as Tom Marshall said in 2012, or government will take money out of temporary cash reserves, with no apparent intent to re-pay that own-source borrowing.
• Government will make up any shortfalls beyond that deficit level by cutting spending in one area and shifting the spending to other areas.  

The ongoing saga of the remittance economy #nlpoli

A downturn in the economy in Saskatchewan and Alberta caused by falling oil prices will affect Newfoundland and Labrador.

This is hardly surprising.  Regular readers will know the phenomenon as remittance labour or migrant labour, something your humble e-scribbler has been writing about since 2007 or thereabouts.  One of the curious aspects of recent economic growth in the province has been that a sizeable chunk of it is actually driven by circumstances outside the province. 

Thousands of workers have been travelling to work in Alberta, Saskatchewan and the north on a cycle of so many weeks working followed by so many days or weeks back in the province. 

Letto to speak on access legislation #nlpoli

Commissioner Doug Letto will be speaking to the Newfoundland and Labrador Chapter of the Canadian Public Relations Society at the Fluvarium, March 27, 2015 at 12:30 PM.

Doug will be speaking about the new ATTIPA legislation and its impact on public relations practice.

Admission is $40 for non-members and $35 for members.

E-mail cprsnlchapter@gmail.com to register.

-srbp-

A legacy of secrecy and bad deals #nlpoli

In response to questioning in the House of Assembly last Tuesday and Wednesday, natural resources Minister Derrick Dalley confirmed that the provincial government is in secret talks with Norwegian oil giant Statoil to develop a new field offshore Newfoundland.

There’s was nothing in the local media about it until the end of the week when the Premier appeared to chance his position on the talks.

The Telegram’s James McLeod wrote:

Premier Paul Davis says that when he told his natural resources minister to wrap up a major offshore oil deal by the end of the year, he didn’t really mean exactly that.

 

Budget ignorance abounds #nlpoli

The provincial government’s own economics and statistics agency conducted a telephone survey for the budget consultations this year. 

They released the results along with the questions and some details about how they conducted the poll. Let’s just look at the answers to some of the questions, as presented by the provincial government.

The Next Question #nlpoli

Scott Andrews’ political career ended last fall.

He may not have realised it at the time.

His bizarre news conference on Thursday made plain he may still not understand that his political future is over, even though he – in effect – shot himself between the eyes in front of a gaggle of reporters.

As much as some might find in picking over his political entrails, there is a far more interesting political questions that has been hanging since Liberal leader Justin Trudeau punted Andrews from the Liberal caucus last November.

Who is going to run for the Liberal nomination in Avalon?

-srbp-

British VC Memorial Dishonours Former British Dominion #nlpoli

As part of its commemoration of the Great War,  the British government unveiled a memorial to Victoria Cross winners who were born in other countries. 

That includes Commonwealth countries and, in some cases, places that weren’t even countries during the First World War.

It’s a companion to the memorial to British Victoria Cross winners: a small plaque in the birthplace of every person who received the highest British decoration for gallantry.

Wonderful stuff.

There’s just a problem with two of the recipients.

The Endless Supply of Sacred Cows 2015 #nlpoli

On the first day of the session in the House of Assembly, the finance minister tabled an interim supply bill for slightly more than $2.7 billion.

Supply is the word the use in the House of Assembly for money the government will use to run things. Interim supply is an amount to tide things over from the start of the new fiscal business on April 1 until the formal budget bill gets passed sometime later on.

The size of the interim supply bill is a pretty good indicator of how much money the government will want to spend over the whole year.

Oil and polls #nlpoli

Two things for Tuesday after a monster snow storm.

Oil:  Brent crude hit a low of $52.50 before rebounding to finish Monday at just below US$55 a barrel.  Newfoundland light, sweet crude trades at Brent prices.

West Texas Intermediate was even lower.  It settled at $43.88 with global production staying high and analysts fearing a glut.

Thus is a reminder of the folly of Conservative policy that ignored historic trends and did nothing to hedge against a rainy day. The people who made the stupid decisions and the people who gave them the crappy advice should be dragged through a public inquiry and account in public for their decisions and advice.

Felix the Half A-G #nlpoli

If politicians are good at one thing, they are usually good at telling a story that serves their purpose even if it isn’t, strictly speaking, actually what happened.

Last week’s cabinet shuffle is a fine example of that. The story started on the day of the shuffle.  The story appears, in its entirety, in a great column by CBC’s David Cochrane.  He’s accurately repeated the story as Conservative politicians and staffers conveyed it to him. 

No one should doubt Cochrane got the story they told him absolutely correctly.

The thing is, the story Cochrane heard from the politicians isn’t what happened.

Here’s how you can tell.

Constable Contempt #nlpoli

Paul Davis fired Judy Manning from cabinet on Wednesday.

He didn’t meet with her in person.

Davis called her on the phone.

Short of sending her an e-mail or a text message,  Davis couldn’t have shown less class, tact, or respect for the job he holds and for Manning herself than in the miserable way Davis he fired her.

To make matters worse, Davis couldn’t even come up with a good reason for dumping Manning.  Take a look at three minutes from the post-shuffle scrum that CBC posted to its website.

David Cochrane asked a simple question.  Davis wandered all over the place and never gave a plain answer.  Even at the end of Davis’ answer to the second question, we aren’t really any further ahead in understand why Davis threw Manning under the bus and then backed over the body a few times for good measure

The Salvation of Bell Island and Other Fairy Stories #nlpoli

The Conservatives rode to power in 2003  by accusing the Liberals of not being able to manage anything.  Ferries played a big part of their narrative of supposed incompetence.

Just to prove that Karma is Payback’s other name,  the Conservatives have proven themselves to be considerably worse at managing the province’s ferry system than the Liberals ever were in the Connies worst lies.

The Conservatives currently running the place have proven themselves to be worse than previous administrations – Liberal or Progressive Conservative - at managing a great many things, as it turned out, but that’s another story.  Let’s stick with the ferries.

The Other Other March Madness #nlpoli

Premier Paul Davis mentioned the prospect of privatizing some public services last week.

This week,  the Liberals started running ads declaring they were opposed to privatising any part of health.

This week, NAPE started an ad campaign that predicted any form of privatization of public services would result in the end of life on the planet and possibly on adjacent planets in the galaxy.

This week,  whatever political staffer it is they have looking pretending to be Paul Davis on Twitter assured us all the future is bright, the fundamentals are strong, and that this financial problem is just a temporary hiccup for which the Conservatives will have a plan.

We’ve heard that before every year for the past three or four years.  It wasn’t true then and it isn’t true now.

But that’s not you should pay attention to.

Gimme that Old-Time Religion #nlpoli

Kim Keating is the president of the St. John’s Board of Trade this year.

In her Telegram column on Saturday, Keating offered some advice to the provincial government about the upcoming budget and taxes.  “As the voice of business, the St. John’s Board of Trade does not support tax increases.”

Funny that.

A couple of years ago, the Board of Trade enthusiastically supported a new tax called Muskrat Falls. The whole scheme is premised on raising electricity rates in the province to pay for the deal and to generate sizeable profits for the companies involved.  The profit for Nalcor is supposed to go to the provincial government to help pay for government services.

So maybe what Kim said wasn’t entirely inside the Ring of Veracity.  The Board of Trade likes some taxes. Like say ones where its members can make crap-loads of money from government procurement.

Gimme that Old-Time Reaction #nlpoli

The only news to come out of the New Democratic Party convention this past weekend is that the party now has not one but two leaders.

Earle won’t be looking for a seat in the House before the next election.  As a result, Lorraine Michael remains the leader of the party in the House of Assembly while Earle is now the leader of the party everywhere else.

It’s the worst possible position for the party, even if it fits precisely with the shrewd game Lorraine’s been playing over the past few months.  She successfully called the bluff of other pretenders to the throne in January. Now she gets to share the leadership with Earle.

Federal Presents, the 2015 edition #nlpoli

November 2005.

The Harris Centre at Memorial University issued a report on the number of federal public servants working in Newfoundland and Labrador.

With a Liberal administration in Ottawa and with a provincial Conservative government that enjoyed shooting at foreign enemies,  the whole argument about federal presence was a big deal.

The Offshore Ownership Fight Examined #nlpoli

Last year was the 30th anniversary of one of the most significant events not only in the history of Newfoundland and Labrador but of Canada as a whole.

The agreement between the federal and provincial governments known as the Atlantic Accord resolved a dispute over the control of oil and gas resources offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

Ray Blake is a historian at the University of Regina with a research interest in federal-provincial relations.  His latest article is “Politics and the Federal Principle in Canada: Newfoundland Offshore Oil Development and the Quest for Political Stability and Economic Justice.” (Canadian Historical Review, volume 96, number 1, March 2015)

Here are some extracts from the last two paragraphs:

Federalism and the Constitution were not established as simple instruments of coercion to impose a final victory between the two orders of government. They were designed to manage and mediate, not eliminate, conflict, but in the offshore dispute no compromise was achieved between successive Newfoundland premiers and the
federal government.

…

The Atlantic Accord represented a new approach to federalism and regional development. Peckford’s federalist dreams had come in a bilateral political agreement, not a constitutional one, and it applied
only to oil and gas, not to fisheries or electricity. … Peckford succeeded in reducing the power and influence of the national bureaucracy in one sector of the Newfoundland and Labrador economy.

Blake has written a concise account of the dispute and the resolution.  He has also captured the importance of the final agreement.  As recent as this history is,  too many people seem unaware of it.  Blake’s article will help change that.

This article is based on research for Blake’s book - Lions or Jellyfish?  Newfoundland-Ottawa Relations since 1957 – due later this year. 

-srbp-

The Abacus Insight #nlpoli

[Updated:  1715 hrs]

By lunch time today, you’ll have Corporate Research Associate’s latest quarterly omnibus poll.  Odds are the overall numbers on party choice for provincial politics will be in line with all the other polls we’ve seen over the last while.

What sets Abacus Data’s poll released on Tuesday is that Abacus asked a bunch of questions that give much greater insight into local public opinion than what you’ve seen from the other opinion research firms.

Before we get to that stuff, let’s look at the party choice numbers.

Class Conflict #nlpoli

The former Premier.

The premier wannabe.

-srbp-

Obesity in Newfoundland and Labrador #nlpoli

A study published in 2014 in the Canadian Medical Association Journal projected that 71 percent of people in Newfoundland and Labrador would be overweight or obese by 2019.

Think about and then reconsider comments by a Norwegian writer working for the New York Times.

-srbp-

The Elephant in the Room, the Astigmatic Seer, and other horrifying budget tales #nlpoli

Has anyone noticed a small problem in all the discussions about next year’s budget?

On Point’s David Cochrane had both NAPE’s Carol Furlong and the Conservative’s pet economist Wade Locke on the show to talk about the next budget.  Carol was warning against cuts.  Locke was talking about a request by Tom Marshall last year to reform the provincial income tax system. Locke and his students – are busily working them up, in close co-operation with the provincial finance department.

Can you see the elephant in the room?

Language Problems #nlpoli

“Increasing taxes is not about solving the deficit, it’s about maintaining our programs and services that we have.”

That’s what Labrador and aboriginal affairs minister Keith Russell told the handful of people who showed up for the government’s pre-budget consultation in Happy Valley-Goose Bay.

The Conservatives are perturbed that the turnout for these sessions has been small.  Part of the problem was the tight timeline:  they only announced the dates last week and started the first session on Monday.  Another part of the problem is that everyone knows that the things are a farce. They aren’t interested in wasting their time.

People should turn out to these things, though, if only for the entertainment they offer,  not to mention the practicality of it.

Nova Scotia won’t get Muskrat Falls electricity #nlpoli

As part of its deal with Nalcor,  Emera will get its electricity from Bay d’Espoir, not Muskrat Falls. 

The Business Post’s March 2015 edition reported that confirmation of the arrangement came from Emera Newfoundland and Labrador chief executive Rick Janega following a speech to the St. John’s Board of Trade on February 23. Janega took the view, though, that the company will get power from whatever source of generation was operating at the time.

As the Business Post reported, the “deal between Nalcor and Emera is not specifically to supply Nova Scotia with Muskrat Falls power, but
rather to supply the equivalent of 20 per cent of Muskrat’s generating capacity from any source.”

Bond Raters and other things to wonders about #nlpoli

Cast your mind back a couple of years and you will probably remember finance minister Jerome Kennedy told us a couple of things.

One was that he expected the government would run deficits for three years, totalling about $1.6 billion.

The other was that surplus would follow after that.

Well, here we are three years later and the latest finance minister – we’ve had four in three years – is now saying we can expect to see another  five years of deficits before maybe, possibly, getting the budget into surplus in Year Six ALE. 

That’s ALE as in “after the latest estimate.”

The Unsustainability Problem #nlpoli

The annual budget consultation farce started on Monday with a couple of sessions.

This year the provincial government has turned out a budget simulator that is supposed “to illustrate the tough budget choices” the provincial government is facing and “to promote a public dialogue on how we can set a sustainable fiscal course.”

The simulation can’t really do either of those things.  The information is relatively recent but the options to adjust income and spending don;t cover the full range of policy choices the government can make.  The ones it does offer are artificially limited to presented increases or decreases.  That’s a programming choice as much as anything else, but the reason for the artificial limitations is not important.  The fact is that the choices are deliberately limited.

The result is that people can’t really see what sorts of choices the provincial government might make to set a “sustainable fiscal course.” In that sense, the current “consultation” is as artificial as all the other ones the provincial government has run over the past decade or so.   People aren’t stupid.  They can handle the truth.

The politicians and bureaucrats can’t.

The theory of everything #nlpoli

People are talking about the budget.

People are talking about Bill 42, the politicians’ decision to cut public representation in the House.

People are talking about the recent polls.

People are talking about the next election.

People have predictions about how this one or that one will play out.

But they are not looking at everything.

They are not looking at the whole board.

And you gotta look at the whole board, Sam.

A cunning plan it ain’t #nlpoli

The whole “Paul-Davis-Decisive-Leader” thing doesn’t seem to be working for the provincial Conservatives.

The latest NTV/MQO poll puts the Liberals at 42, the Conservatives at 20 and the NDP at seven,  with 30% undecided.

In October 2014,  it was Liberals 37,  Conservatives 16,  NDP six, and undecided at 40.

In October 2013,  the Liberals were at 35, the Conservatives at 20, the NDP at 12, and the undecided at 32.

You can see the trend there of Liberal growth – up seven points -  while the Conservatives hover around 20.  The undecided is down.  Most of them won’t vote anyway.  And the New Democrats have dropped from 12 to seven.

Stragedy and Polls: Chop House version #nlpoli

Public opinion polls are a really useful thing in politics.

The Liberals did a poll the weekend before the Liberals and Conservatives voted to slash public representation in the legislature.  They bought into the scheme in largest part because it looked hugely popular.

The problem with the poll results is that they didn’t tell the Liberals anything useful. You can see the same fundamental problem in the poll commissioned by NTV from MQO.

St. Pierre shifting health care to Moncton, Halifax #nlpoli

Rising costs are forcing the government of St. Pierre to look at shifting health care for its residents to Moncton New Brunswick from St. John’s, according to Radio Canada.

The cost of having St. Pierrais treated by Eastern Health has risen 75% since 2010 despite a decrease in the number of people from St. Pierre and Miquelon seeking treatment in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Costs aren’t the only issue.  Eastern Health has only two translators to help St. Pierrais admitted to Eastern Health hospitals for treatment.  On top of that, the regional health authority is also not adept at identifying bilingual staff and making them available to treat the mostly unilingual French patients from the islands off the southern coast of Newfoundland.

Radio Canada notes concerns in the local business community at the loss of St. Pierrais coming to St. John’s for treatment.  Money that would be spent in St. John’s is now going to Moncton and Halifax,  according to Stephanie Bowring, an economic development officer with the Newfoundland and Labrador Francophone Economic Development Network St. John’s. 

The francophone federation is also concerned about the potential decline of French language service at Eastern Health. 

Health minister Steve Kent told Radio Canada that the increased costs were due to inflationary pressures.  Kent said it made sense to suggest Eastern Health could provide bilingual staff when French patients seek care but doubted that it would be possible to provide bilingual care 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

-srbp-

Lighter and Lighter #nlpoli

Three separate stories over the past three days highlight changes to the local media world.

On Saturday, Telegram editor Russell Wangersky slammed the publicly funded CBC Radio for turning its morning show into the sort of light, fluffy morning program heard on commercial radio.

(Is "We're broadcasting from Tim Horton's" really that much different than that old private radio staple, "We're broadcasting live from L&M Carpeting, your best carpet buy in the tri-state area"?)

There are stupid host and guest tricks: let's make the mayor of Mount Pearl, Randy Simms, wear a party hat for that city's 60th birthday. Let's make him blow on a party horn. Let's Tweet the pictures. Let's dress someone up as a turkey and film them doing tricks.

He’s right.

But Russell is also wrong.

Money and Politics – the Chronic Enforcement Problem #nlpoli

We can have all the rules in the world about how political parties and political candidates receive and spend money in Newfoundland and Labrador, but they are useless without meaningful enforcement.

It’s been illegal since 2011 for municipalities to make political contributions.  The association representing the province’s towns and cities knew about the 2011 amendment to the Municipalities Act.

The people at the electoral office didn’t.

Money and Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador #nlpoli

Some people are making a big deal over the fact that the judge heading the boundaries commission made political donations to both the Liberal and Conservative parties in the province before he was appointed to the Supreme Court Trial Division.

Justice Robert Stack made donations totalling $1,718 to the provincial Liberal Party between 1996 and 2003 and $2,032 to the provincial Conservative party between 2001 and the time he was appointed by the federal government as a Supreme Court judge in 2009.

No one has actually explained how what is a normal activity for ordinary citizens in every province in Canada is problematic in this case.  There’s just the innuendo that goes with a comment like this:

“Nobody's really questioning that Justice Stack has the qualifications to do what he's being asked to do, it's about whether or not there are other connections that then make it a little more questionable.”  [See new comment by Kelly Blidook at end of post]

Insinuation and Innuendo aren’t evidence of anything except the exceedingly bad judgement of the people making the comments and the news media who are repeating them.

The Boundary Commission Fun is closer #nlpoli

The Chief Justice has named Justice Robert Stack as the chair of the boundary commission appointed under the Electoral Boundaries Act.

We now have to get four other members of the commission, appointed by the Speaker of the House of Assembly so the whole crowd of them can start their 130 adventure.

Will it be done on time?  And if it isn’t,  will we be trooping to the polls on schedule in the fall to vote in 48 districts instead of 40,  as NHTV reported on Monday night.

Amazing as it is, some people still haven;t quite sorted it through.  Let’s save them further anguish and lay out the possibilities.

The Other DarkNL #nlpoli

For as long as anyone can remember,  some people in Newfoundland and Labrador have had a love of conformity.

They loathe discussion and debate. 

They dislike democracy.

Reforming the budget process #nlpoli

We already know that the provincial government won’t unveil its budget for the new year until late April or early May.

That’s not as unusual as it might seem.  In 2012, for example, they introduced the budget on April 24.  Five years before,  Tom Marshall read the budget speech on April 26.  The next year – 2008 – Tom again read the budget speech in the House in late April,  the 29th to be exact.

The fact the Conservatives aren’t planning to release the budget until a month or so into the new fiscal year – it starts on April 1 – isn’t surprising.  It isn’t unusual.  And odds are very good it isn’t related to the fact the federal government has delayed its budget until around the same time.

Government by Committee #nlpoli

Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador (2015) – Part 5

In the fifth and final  instalment in this series on politics in Newfoundland and Labrador, SRBP looks at the latest move in continuing efforts by politicians in the province to make the House of Assembly irrelevant.
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If you want to understand politics in Newfoundland and Labrador, look no further than Bill 42.  That’s the plan to cut eight seats from the House of Assembly before the next election.

Don’t look at the reasons the politicians offered for the cuts. Just look at who did it, what they did, and how they did it. After all, actions speak a lot louder than words.

Elections and Voting #nlpoli

Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador (2015) – Part 4

The politicians in the province share a lot of common views and tend to agree on most things despite being organized into political parties that are – theoretically  - supposed to have some sharp differences among them.  The House of Assembly itself is organized to minimise the chances that the government won;t get its way, quickly.  

In the fourth instalment in this series on politics in Newfoundland and Labrador, SRBP looks how elections work.
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Yvonne Jones was the first woman leader of the Liberal Party. 

She was the first woman to serve as leader of the official opposition and, more recently, she became the first women to represent Labrador in the House of Commons.

Yvonne Jones will go down in history for another accomplishment, though.  That one has nothing to do with chromosomes.

Yvonne Jones was the last person to be elected to the House of Assembly as an independent candidate.*

The Dysfunctional House of Assembly #nlpoli

Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador (2015) – Part 3

In the third instalment in the series,  SRBP looks at the way the House of Assembly operates.
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Liberal finance critic Cathy Bennett’s recent op-ed piece in the Telegram said that the provincial government’s current financial mess is about more than unexpected changes in the price of oil.
She’s absolutely right.

Bennett pointed to the Equalization offset transfers under the 1985 Atlantic Accord as the root.  The provincial government got about $4.6 billion under the deal.  “The province collected $4.6 billion in federal funding under the Atlantic Accord,”  wrote Bennett.  “A long-term financial plan should have been put in place to account for the future loss of those revenues.

Equalization transfers.

Sounds a wee bit familiar, doesn’t it?

One Big Party #nlpoli

Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador – Part 2

The plan to cut public representation in the House of Assembly has drawn public attention to more than just the plan to reduce the number of elected representatives in the legislature by eight. 

In this new series, SRBP will examine politics in Newfoundland over the last 15 to 20 years The first instalment - “Making the rich richer” – and the second – “One Big Party” - look at the curious agreement among the parties on major public issues.

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Cast your mind back.

Go back to 2008. Yvonne Jones was the leader of the Liberal Party. She was one of three members, sitting right next to Kelvin Parsons and Roland Butler, the sole Liberal survivors of a near sweep of the province by the Conservatives in the 2007 general election.

Jones turned up in the Telegram with what is, in hindsight,  a fascinating suggestion.

I always say that we're such a small province, when you've got three political parties, there's always a lot of energy and time and expertise spent in, I guess, staking out everybody's turf in the political arena...

I used to say to myself, "maybe we're expending it in the wrong direction? [sic]"...Maybe if a lot of that was just put into strengthening policy for people, we might end up with a lot better result at the end of the day.

Jones didn’t see any differences at all among the political parties. The members all believed exactly the same things. They wasted time and money “staking out everybody’s turf”, whatever that means. So Jones thought aloud that maybe it would be better if there were no parties, just a bunch of like-minded people, all working hard “strengthening policy for people.”

Making the rich richer #nlpoli

Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador – Part 1

The plan to cut public representation in the House of Assembly has drawn public attention to more than just the plan to reduce the number of elected representatives in the legislature by eight.   

In this new series,  SRBP will examine politics in Newfoundland over the last 15 to 20 years  The first  instalment  - “Making the rich richer” – and the second – “One Big Party” - look at the curious agreement among the parties on major public issues. 
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The provincial government subsidises tuition fees at Memorial University for Canadian undergraduate students. They go to school for fees far less than the cost of providing the buildings, technology, and instructors need to educate them.

The annual cost of the tuition subsidy is about $40 million, according to the most recent report by the province’s auditor general.  That’s part of about $388 million the provincial government provides to the university to fund its operations.

All three political parties support the subsidy. The Liberals started it and the Conservatives continued it. The New Democrats back it enthusiastically.

The tuition subsidy benefits Newfoundlanders and Labradorians primarily.  Over the past five years or so,  Memorial has been able to attract growing numbers of students from outside the province.  They come for the cheap education, not the quality of the education, although there’s no reason to believe that Memorial University provides a substandard education to anyone.  So lots of people benefit from the subsidy, many of them from outside Newfoundland and Labrador.

The tuition subsidy costs about 20 times what the cuts to the House of Assembly will theoretically save annually.