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14 February 2005

Counting Chickens

Coming Monday is the signing of the offshore revenue deal.

Everyone is cheering.

Some are scowling.

But according to the Saturday Telegram, discussions are still underway to reach agreement on some key definitions. The story isn't posted but I am giving a link anyway. Maybe you could send an e-mail and let miller Ayre know what you think of The Telegram's skimpy website. Ever hear of letting people subscribe, Miller?

One of the details is finding a common definition of debt. Appears that some provinces measure it differently, including some things and not including others. This is similar to a story floating around Ottawa and St. John's a week or so ago that there was a side deal being negotiated that limited where the province could spend its new cash. I doubt that is true, but The Telegram story does indicate there are still some potential difficulties in finalizing this agreement.

It stands in contrast to the original Atlantic Accord. Provincial Premier Brian Peckford accepted Brian Mulroney's offer in June 1984 without so much as questioning the placement of a comma. After the federal election later in 1984, the federal and provincial governments started what ended up being six months of detailed negotiations.

They debated the details of the deal to ensure that the goals set for them by cabinets - not the Premier or prime Minister alone - were met. One former provincial negotiator insists that the provincial team was worried the final version didn't meet key criteria established by cabinet and so a deal would fall through.

Is there a chance this could all fall through? Not really.

Is there a chance some details might not be as revealed publicly so far? That's a bit more likely, especially in the the workings of the provisions of how a province goes on and off Equalization and hence the offsets.

The original Atlantic Accord took nearly two years to navigate the House of Commons - that's with a majority government firmly committed to the deal. While no sign has emerged of a serious threat to getting a bill through the Commons to enact this deal - when it comes - there is always a possibility in a minority parliament of odd things occurring. Might some of the details be changed or amendments made, especially ones that open options for other provinces?

As the hoary old cliche goes, "the devil is all in the details".

And like another cliche, there is no point in counting chickens before they are hatched. It isn't like counting crows.

That's what makes the advertising schpeel the province has produced all the more smarmy, all the more chalushisdick.

Let's see what the thing actually looks like before we have a party. Better to know how many chickens are actually in the hen house before we start dropping any on the barbie.