Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams says negotiations to give Nova Scotia more time to decide whether it should opt into a new equalization formula may be an attempt by Ottawa to pit the two provinces against each other.First, it assumes that there is some value for the federal Conservatives in "splitting" Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador over the Equalization ruckus.
They aren't really together to be split, for one thing.
But really, the comment assumes that Newfoundland and Labrador is so important to the current federal administration that they would actually invest time and energy in developing a "split" strategy. (Danny Williams isn't really that important either. No provincial Premier ever is. But I digress)
They don't need a strategy.
The provinces were already following different tracks on this issue...
Which leads us to the second premise, namely that there is something going on here other than a bit of political theatre for the benefit of the people in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Under the status quo, Newfoundland and Labrador will become a "have" province - i.e. make too much money to qualify for Equalization without any caps - somewhere around 2009.
Nova Scotia?
When's Toronto gonna win the Cup again?
So basically, extending the period of choice for Newfoundland and Labrador wouldn't matter a row of beans.
The provincial government knew generally speaking what was going to happen on Equalization about a year ago when it was first reported publicly.
The Premier knew the 100% option was definitely off the table likely before he laced into Steve Harper last October.
He almost certainly knew what was going on (give or take a few details) last December when Loyola Sullivan came back from a finance minister's meeting and had to attend a news scrum with the Premier standing by his side.
What played out from March onwards has been pure political theatre designed to get people in Newfoundland and Labrador agitated about something 99% of Canadians don't understand.
In the end, the Premier will just do what he planned to do once the feds announced exactly what they were going to do in march: flip from one plan to the other to maximize the cash flows.
There's no way the Prem can lose cash. Under every likely scenario, the provincial government continues to make more. It was only just a matter of how much more. look at the 2005 deal. he settled for way less than he started out looking for. In the end - as he admitted himself - it came down to what the cash advance amount was going to be.
He's a smart guy. That's why he places the angles on the cash and plays the public like a violin.
Why else has he all but given up on the 100% option? He knows it's impossible to get.
Why isn't he looking to get the caps removed from the Accords? That's the part that maximizes the cash to the province. Likely because his administration already consented to amending the 1985 deal and therefore doesn't have a leg to stand on.
There really isn't any other explanation for his using the weak "Steve lied" argument instead of taking down the feds with an iron-clad example of perfidy.
In the end, there'll be some extra cash in the provincial treasury and no one will recall the current racket six months after the last polls close.
Playing to the galleries always works in the theatre of Newfoundland politics. That's why so many politicians do it. Danny Williams just does it better than just about any thespian we've elected to the office.
Sadly, though, treating politics like a sordid little melodrama is why the financial ending is always the same.
-SRBP-
Update: The other part of the political theatre here would be any federal official who actually said this:
That sort of thing may be what SES Research's Nik Nanos meant by a "reverse Williams" in a comment on an earlier Bond Papers' post. In other words, the federal Conservatives may be counting on Danny Williams to polarize the electorate in key segments and earn them some political support for appearing to stand up to the guy who ripped down Canadian flags and now evokes Quebec sovereignist slogans to bolster his cause.
What some commentators seem to miss is that outside Quebec, sovereignist/nationalist posturing doesn't earn a great deal of support among Canadians. Pulling down flags - a tactic ripped from the Parti Quebecois playbook - doesn't actually engender warm feelings in Canadians. It didn't work in 2004/05 for Newfoundland and Labrador. It likely won't work in the future.
But here's the thing: for the current federal administration, playing the margins is how they think of politics. They don't need big numbers; they just need to pick up a few here and there to win. Danny Williams might just wind up being the best friend Steve Harper has.
One source said Ottawa wants to reward Premier Rodney MacDonald for taking a softer line in the dispute.The federal government knows the same thing the provincial governments know. What the federal government may well be doing is a bit of theatrics of its own to capitalize on popular discomfort with the 2005 offshore deals. The deals are particularly unpopular in some segments of vote-rich Ontario.
That sort of thing may be what SES Research's Nik Nanos meant by a "reverse Williams" in a comment on an earlier Bond Papers' post. In other words, the federal Conservatives may be counting on Danny Williams to polarize the electorate in key segments and earn them some political support for appearing to stand up to the guy who ripped down Canadian flags and now evokes Quebec sovereignist slogans to bolster his cause.
What some commentators seem to miss is that outside Quebec, sovereignist/nationalist posturing doesn't earn a great deal of support among Canadians. Pulling down flags - a tactic ripped from the Parti Quebecois playbook - doesn't actually engender warm feelings in Canadians. It didn't work in 2004/05 for Newfoundland and Labrador. It likely won't work in the future.
But here's the thing: for the current federal administration, playing the margins is how they think of politics. They don't need big numbers; they just need to pick up a few here and there to win. Danny Williams might just wind up being the best friend Steve Harper has.