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Analyses remain secret; Province won't release examination of system
by Rob Antle
It's been an argument fought largely without the help of any hard numbers or firm facts. And the provincial government is doing its part to ensure the situation stays that way.
The Williams administration confirmed this week it won't make public any of its analyses of changes to the federal equalization system.
Requested data
The Telegram requested the data a month ago under provincial access-to-information laws.
The province says doing so would violate both cabinet confidences, and a portion of the law dealing with the financial and economic interests of a public body.
A spokeswoman for Premier Danny Williams steered questions to the provincial Department of Finance, which denied the request.
Williams has been at war with Ottawa since the federal budget was tabled March 19.
The Harper government sidestepped a key election promise on equalization, instituting a cap on benefits.
Williams was apoplectic, commissioning a nationwide advertising campaign condemning the prime minister.
The feds, meanwhile, insist the province can stay in the old equalization system and retain the uncapped Atlantic Accord.
No hard numbers
Neither side has tabled any hard numbers to back up their respective opinions about the benefits of the new system versus the old.
Earlier this month, Ottawa told The Telegram it would require 1,056.67 hours just to prepare to release 31,700 pages of documents analysing the potential impact of the new system on Newfoundland and Labrador.
The federal Finance Department said it would take another 69 hours just to find the information. Total bill: $17,500.
Province just said no
The province, meanwhile, shut the door entirely.
Last month, Williams skated around three separate questions from reporters about whether he would release provincial analyses.
"It depends on how far we can go," he said April 18.
Equalization is fiendishly complicated, with factors as diverse as the price of oil, the value of the Canadian dollar and the economic performance of every province potentially shifting benefit levels.
Projections released
To date, the only person who has publicly released any projections of the new system's impact is Memorial University economist Wade Locke.
Locke first calculated that the new system could provide a boon of $5.6 billion to the province.
But a new set of parameters - based on changes in federal budget implementation laws - turned that boon into a bust. Locke's revised analysis showed the new system would provide $1 billion less than the status quo over 12 years.
The MUN economist has urged the feds and the province to make public their own projections.
Neither side has expressed much interest in doing so.
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