If there ever was a campaign which showed the power of negative campaigning, it's Avalon.
From a time well before the writ dropped, incumbent Conservative Fabian Manning received countless vicious personal attacks.
That includes a reference to Manning as a "traitor" by no less than Premier Danny Williams. That savage rhetoric continued throughout the campaign from many quarters, including from a strong supporter of the Andrews and Harris campaigns.
Liberal Scott Andrews, the only serious competitor piled on relentlessly, lightening up only for the last week or two.
That didn't mean the attacks stopped since the Family Feud deployed at least three cabinet ministers to the area north of the Trans-Canada Highway to work their persuasive magic on local Provincial Conservatives.
Through all that, Manning did phenomenally better than his colleagues in the St. John's ridings. In St. John's East, the Conservatives captured only 20% of the vote from 2006. In St. John's South-Mount Pearl, 26% of the vote held.
In Avalon, Manning held on to about 60% of his vote from 2006. Still and all, he lost 7590 votes.
Interestingly enough, the drop in voter turn out and the increased vote for Green, Liberal and New Democrat candidates totals 7582. That's not likely a coincidence.
What's noticeable in Avalon is that the lost votes didn't migrate to another party. They appear to have just stayed home in large numbers.
Scott Andrews increased the Liberal vote by 4%, or 548 votes.
The largest jump in votes for any candidate was in the New Democrat column which saw a 70% jump (2343 votes). If those votes came from disgruntled Provincial Conservatives, the attractiveness of New Democrats would largely be defined by one quality: they aren't Liberals. The same quality likely had a strong influence on Blue voter choice in the St. John's ridings for those who came out to vote.
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