For the first time in four years, provincial government oil price projections aren’t lowballed.
They did manage to lowball production levels but not by much.
There’s no secret stash of cash – like last year’s Equalization for the “have” province – that can emerge to make all the boo-boos go away. This year is the current administration’s real budget.
And to make it worse, you have to wonder about their math skills.
Oil at US$70 a barrel, and with the Canadian dollar where it is would generate another $600 million in oil revenue above current estimates.
Just to put it in context, oil has spent the past three months at around US$45. The deficit is $750 on an accrual basis, $1.3 billion on a cash basis.
Jerome says that $600 million more would produce a surplus.
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