The downward production trend is unmistakeable. The increase in 2017 represents the increase from Hebron and Hibernia South. The two year delay in signing the development deal postponed the extra production which would have replaced dwindling production from other fields.
To give a sense of the implication of this chart, total royalty revenue in 2016 would be US$400 million. If we assume a 20% premium for an 80 cent Canadian dollar, that works out to Cdn$480. Compare that to the estimated $1.265 billion in Budget 2009.
Any added revenue that may come from the Hebron royalty regime would not arrive until sometime after 2020. Even then, added revenue from the so-called super royalty only comes in any month when the average price for West Texas Intermediate crude is above US$50 per barrel.
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