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10 September 2010

RBC lowers NL GDP forecast for 2010

Highlights of the latest RBC Economics forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador in 2010:

  • Real GDP to grow at 3.3% for the year, down from the 4.1% forecast in June.
  • Offshore oil production down 3.2% year-to-date to June.
  • Non-residential capital construction to form basis of growth in medium term.
  • Oil royalties expected to reach 40% of provincial government revenues in 2010, potentially supporting increase in public sector employment.  RBC states that public sector represents 30% of employment in the province.
  • Real GDP growth of 3.3% forecast for 2011, up from previous forecast of 2.3%

And for the national comparison:

  • Saskatchewan will lead the country in real GDP growth with 2010 and 2011. 
  • NL is middle of the pack for 2010 and third in 2011 for GDP growth.
  • NL has recovered less than 60% of the jobs lost since the recession.  Quebec has recovered 140% and Nova Scotia has recovered about 100%.

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