People are talking about austerity but the simple truth is
the people talking that way have a vested interest in exaggerating what is
going on in the provincial government.
Yes, we *are* in a very dangerous financial state.
But... the provincial government is doing the bare minimum
to keep the creditors happy while waiting nervously for oil to come back.
In the meantime, there is no austerity and anyone who says
otherwise is either ignorant or a liar.
Some folks are looking at the price of oil and get excited
over the teensiest of changes in the price per barrel. They are missing
some simple stuff, though, and at the start of the New Year, it is worthwhile
for us to take a quick refresher in basic oil royalty math.
The provincial government is addicted to oil royalties. What
the government gets in the way of royalties is a function of two things:
how much oil they produce offshore and how much they get for each barrel
when the oil companies sell it. In other words, royalties are a function
of production and price.
Production: we already know that offshore oil
production will take a jump up again around 2019 when Hebron
production comes on line. In 2014, the offshore regulatory board forecast
annual production would hit something like 100 million to 110 million barrels
for a couple of years.
Production would fall off rapidly after that, but for a
couple of years, we'd see a lot of oil produced offshore. To put it in
perspective that would about half again as high as current production. We
are somewhere around 70 to 75 million barrels the forecast would put another 35
million barrels on top of that on the market.
Price: Here's where things get a bit
tricky. While current provincial forecast is for oil prices to be less
than $50 a barrel, the National Energy Board is forecasting better prices
than that around the time oil production peaks again. The NEB October forecast put oil at around $70 a barrel within
the next four years.
Royalties: 100 million barrels at US$70 a barrel
would bring oil royalties on the order of $2.1 billion. This year, the
combination of low production and relatively low price means the government
will barely pull in one third of that, or around $700 million.
Remember what Dwight Ball said last January during some of
his earliest interviews after taking office last January? we "need to find a way to bridge
us [from] where we are currently until the commodities rebound".
Rebound would be some time around 2019. Maybe
2020.
This stuff is really simple. You just have to pay
attention to what the politicians say. Most of them will tell you what is going
on. You just have to know how to interpret the comments.
And now you know.
The pols are looking for a miracle and as near as they can
figure something miraculous will happen in a couple of years time, preferably
just in time for the next election in late 2019.In the meantime, lots of people will track every tiny bump in oil prices in the unrealistic hope that the problem we face will magically disappear.
The closer we get to the budget, the louder the noise
will get from the public sector unions and their agents about cuts and austerity and all sorts of evil. Just look back
at last year, though, and you will see that what the government crowd are
trying to do is the opposite of austerity. They are just trying to hold everything together until the oil comes back.
-srbp-