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| Our Former Dear Premier |
Well, the belief that the Premier is the strong man or
woman responsible for everything is part of our post-Confederation political
culture. The strongman myth – a local version of the Latin American caudillo
or the Soviet/Russian personality cults - has only grown in strength since 2003
despite the ample evidence it simply isn’t true. There are many factors that determine what
the government does and those will affect the choices the next premier and the
administration he leads will make.
Rather than look at the individuals who might wind up as Premier next month, let’s take a look at those other factors.
First, there’s The Consensus. That’s the view shared by opinion leaders in the province that we cannot change the course we are on. *Any* solutions to the province's financial problems that involve changing anything are bleak and politically unacceptable.
So right off the bat, anybody or any group that wants to change things
will have to face all the vested interests and their supporters who want to
continue the path we are on. The only
solution they will accept is for the federal government to bail the province
out.
Second, there’s the political fashion these days for parties to only
do what’s popular. Liberal, Conservative,
New Democrats or any of the fringe gaggles out there across the province will
only do what is popular. Last week,
former Premier Clyde Wells talked about how he tried to persuade the public to
support his actions. It was a hard slog,
but it worked, and the province was better off because of it.
Well, 30 years later, no politicians are in the persuasion
business. They won’t even try to change
minds. They will run from controversy
like hippies from a barber.
Third, there’s the House
of Assembly, which is full of noobs and rookies. Abut 80% of the members in the legislature
have been there only since 2015. That affects how they look at politics and
what they can do alone or together. They
don’t have the background or the political
will to dig into serious issues, so they talk about trivia and side issues.
That political fashion of not doing persuasion and only doing what is
popular is overwhelming among them. They
also don’t have a particularly good understanding of what responsibilities they
have to the people of the province. They
proved that unanimously voted to violate fundamental human rights during the
recent pandemic. Jim
Dinn’s cavalier disregard for constitutional rights - although stunning
ignorance would be a less generous but more accurate description of his comments
- are just the tip of a very large and very dark iceberg that is the House of
Assembly these days.
Fourth, there’s the Liberal caucus. The current bunch are leaky and fractured and
that won’t end just because there’s a new party leader. John Abbott might find himself like Jim
Bennett. Then again, Andrew Furey might
find himself channeling Roger Grimes, who emerged from the 2001 leadership owing
everybody and not having enough seats or goodies to give everyone the prize
they think they deserve.
Either Abbott or Furey will likely have to spend time managing caucus
even after November when a bunch of them tick over the pension milestone so
many of them are concerned about. There’s
always a possibility a few will cross the floor – or threaten to do so – and if
Dwight Ball stays, then caucus management will become a constant distraction
from the very big problems facing the province.
Fifth, there’s the No Election commitment by both candidates,
which will keep the House in tis current state for at least another year. Neither
candidate will enter the Premier’s Office with the political capital needed to fight
indecision and hand-wringing or just sheer obstinacy.
That pretty much guarantees that in the near term, the provincial
government will rack up even more debt and not have a plan to get back on
track. The Consensus and the style of
politics we have these days will keep us on the current course for the
foreseeable future.
Sixth, there’s the federal government. The Consensus
demands the feds pay for decisions the locals don’t want to make. The feds won’t pay the billions needed
annually to cover both annual deficits and the Muskrat Falls mess.
The local politicians might band together to fight Ottawa for the show
of it. Or the Tories and New Democrats might hammer away at the new Premier
when he cannot deliver his promised mega-billions. (Both are committed to The Consensus
in that respect)
In the meantime, the federal government will continue to underwrite
local overspending and political indecision through the Bank of Canada. The question is how long that will continue.
Change is hard. It’s harder when
no one wants to change. That’s why it is safer to expect more of the same,
until the money runs out.
-srbp-