Danny-lovers will rush forward to back their man, irrespective of the facts.
The rest of us can approach the whole business a little more insightfully that the local jingoists.
When the presentation is available on line, Bond will link to it and do a more detailed assessment.
In the meantime, here is a thumbnail sketch courtesy of Bill Callahan's synopsis on Night Line and Simon Lono's debrief via telephone. Under the circumstances, details here may be off, so wait for the full report before jumping off a cliff.
1. The old Equalization system with the offshore deals - the one the province still has - will generate approximately $18 billion for the province over a period of time (to 2020 or thereabouts?).
2. If the province opted for the O'Brien formula (50% exclusion of all resource revenues with a cap), then it would gain $22.8 billion over the same period.
3. The Harper option (100% exclusion of non-renewables only) would come out at $28.6 billion over the same period.
A few preliminary observations:
- Danny Williams was dead wrong about O'Brien.
Like stone cold, in the ground, stake through the heart kinda dead wrong.
So wrong, that being wrong any other way would seem right in comparison.
He claimed it was going to cost the province money.
It does the opposite.
Big time opposite.
Makes ya wonder if Danny reads his briefing notes.
Makes ya wonder if he understands his briefing notes.
Makes ya wonder if he just makes stuff up as he goes along.
- 100% non-renewables out is the best of the three options (if you only look at how much cash it nets.). Never mind the fact, that it is politically unattainable. Contrary to Ken Boessenkool's 2001 assessment, this approach actually generates bags of cash for a province like Newfoundland and Labrador.
Again, never mind that it is politically unattainable.
Unreachable.
A pipe dream.
- Danny Williams will claim vindication. His fellow jingoists will now feel their cause is just. The rest of us will wonder why they are out in the cold screaming when what they want is unattainable.
- No one wants to recall that Williams' own policy was for 100% inclusion of all resource revenues.
There's that pesky wrong thing again.
- 100% inclusion plus the offshore offset deals is still a decent option. It generates cash in the bank to the tune of $18 billion. Nothing to sneeze at. All depends on whether you piss it out the door or actually invest money properly.
- Of course, Danny Williams doesn't want to talk about developing a debt management plan right now, i.e. running the province properly. He's too busy getting his mug on TV.
- Locke apparently didn't assess another option in front of the province, namely 100% exclusion of non-renewables with a cap. Forgotten in the Premier's irk-fest is the fact that the Harperites have actually put three different Equalization formulas in play.
- The province hasn't lost anything.
- The province isn't jammed up, as the Premier seems to suggest.
- The province can still play the choice game and come out with significant bags of cash ahead of where it is today.
- Why is Danny Williams persisting in his racket and committing provincial government policy to a partisan row at public expense?
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