20 February 2015

A cunning plan it ain’t #nlpoli

The whole “Paul-Davis-Decisive-Leader” thing doesn’t seem to be working for the provincial Conservatives.

The latest NTV/MQO poll puts the Liberals at 42, the Conservatives at 20 and the NDP at seven,  with 30% undecided.

In October 2014,  it was Liberals 37,  Conservatives 16,  NDP six, and undecided at 40.

In October 2013,  the Liberals were at 35, the Conservatives at 20, the NDP at 12, and the undecided at 32.

You can see the trend there of Liberal growth – up seven points -  while the Conservatives hover around 20.  The undecided is down.  Most of them won’t vote anyway.  And the New Democrats have dropped from 12 to seven.

Go back to last December and you can see the numbers are generally consistent with what Corporate Research Associates has been polling as well.

With numbers like that,  and with such consistency,  seat projection models leavened with a bit of local knowledge suggest that there are very  few safe Conservative seats.  And contrary to what some members of the Conservative brain trust might think, cutting eight seats out of the mix on the island doesn’t dramatically improve the chances of gerrymandering a victory for their team.

Not gonna happen. Outside of a few seats like Ferryland,  the Conservatives are almost at the headwaters of shit creek, sans paddle or canoe ,and with the spring runoff after a record winter snowfall bearing down on them at full speed.

From their spot on the river, the Conservatives don’t even have to squint to see the New Democrats who are slightly farther up the creek. They have fallen down to their historic levels of mid-single digits. It puts them in danger of losing all the seats they currently hold.