Campaign Notes: Using the technology

Step 1. Google any of the following words:

"danny williams"

"pc party"

"newfoundland"

Step 2: Check the sponsored links, usually on the right hand side.

Hint: Try "pc party" first and see if your search turns up the same result as the one we just did here at Bond.

Step 3: lol or roflyao

Update - Step 4; Google "bob ridgley". You won't find any website for the candidate. The first link that turns up is interesting.

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A non-story

Someone picked up on the fact that some campaign signs - in this case for Tory Beth Marshall - don't carry any reference to the "Danny Williams Team."

There are plenty of re-cycled signs around and Marshall appears to have been frugal with her campaign expenses.

Let's hope Bond Papers doesn't get as many comments on Marshall as CBC radio did after her interview yesterday. The server couldn't handle the volume of criticism aimed at the former auditor general

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Stephenville 2: Not on my watch

From the Premier's remarks in Goose Bay on Tuesday:

And I want people here to know that I am not prepared to leave Labradorians excluded on my watch. Labrador's day has arrived. This is Labrador's time to shine, to flourish and to reap the benefits of growth as our province moves forward, united, toward self-reliance.

It's odd to use this sort of phrase a second time, at least under the circumstances.

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Danny makes Bourque!

Well, indirectly.

But the original is here.

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Hiring baby ranchers

From Washington Profile, an interview with Nicholas Eberstadt on the demographic problems facing Russia. Read the whole interview to understand the Russian experience in a wider context.

Eberstadt is a political economy specialist at the American Enterprise Institute. It's a pretty stark appraisal from a purely economic perspective, but the ideas are worth considering.

But in light of the Progressive Conservative's procreation policy, take a look at this [emphasis added]:

Washington Profile: Russia is not the only country to attempt to increase birth rates through government policy and incentives. How effective have these kinds of policies been in other countries, for example, in western Europe?

Eberstadt: Birth incentive plans are almost always ineffective in the long run. The typical history of birth incentive plans in western Europe and elsewhere has been to elicit a small blip in birth rates followed by a bigger slump. The reason for the blip is that some parents “on the fence” about the timing of a second or a third child take advantage of the introduction of these incentives. And the subsequent slump takes place because the bonuses alter parents' timing of desired births, not desired birth totals. If one were to have a serious pronatalist economic plan, you’d be getting into some very big money. You would have to have vastly larger outlays than are currently accorded to social security, healthcare or any other existing programs. Basically, you’d have to be prepared to be hiring women to work as baby ranchers—and in a modern economy, given the opportunity cost of women’s labor, a program like that would be staggeringly expensive. That, I think, explains the limited success of pronatalist efforts in the western historical record. By the way, it also turns out to be very difficult to talk up the birth rate: the bully pulpit and the government usually can’t convince people to have extra children out of patriotism or civic duty.

Washington Profile: Russia has become a country with significant immigration flows. How is this likely to impact on its demographic situation?

Russia has the same problem that other European countries have, with the prospect of population decline, and the question of changing ethnic composition. Many of the prospective migrants to Russia are not of Russian ethnicity, and as you know, the government has increasingly indicated a nationalist, or a nativist, objection to immigration to the Russian Federation. There still are a number of millions of Russians in the near abroad, but the flow of Russian ethnic migration to the Russian Federation has declined almost to a trickle over the past decade. Barring some sort of awful political upheaval, I don’t know how realistic it would be to think that these ethnic Russians in the near abroad might want to pack up and head back to the Russian Federation. So Russia is facing the same kind of issues as the rest of Europe. Throughout Europe, the key question in this regard is: can the newcomers be turned into loyal and productive citizens? Some places have a better track record of this than others.

A discussion paper from the Max Plank Institute for the Study of Democratic Policy examines fertility policies in western European countries. Note that the paper discusses a range of policies aimed at supporting people raising children, not merely the performance bonus system for producing children.

While the Progressive Conservative policy announced on Tuesday includes components aimed at supporting parents during child-rearing, it remains to be seen if these measures will be effective. A significant program would involve reform of the federal government's parental leave program to provide larger benefits over a longer period of time versus the current scheme of providing 55% of income for a year. At the time when costs rise, the scheme actually reduces family net income.

There is also a question as to whether or not the longer-term policies are actually the impetus for the proposed program. The Premier's comment on a "dying race" suggest something closer to the sort of reactionary nationalist policies that have emerged in some states, such as Russia. "Race" in this case, is most definitely not synonymous with "province" as some may naively be tempted to argue. The provincial government's throne speech from the past spring, as well as the Progressive Conservative campaign contain clear expressions of nationalist sentiment if not outright ideology.

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Election 2007: Day Two Notes

1. Quote of the Day: "We can't be a dying race." Premier Danny Williams on his campaign promise to offer cash to people having babies or adopting children.

What "race" is he talking about?

Take a look at the Conception Day idea the Premier mentioned in his newser. Here's the audio clip of the Premier. [ram file] Here's a story from the Toronto Star from September 12 on the idea: it goes way beyond just the need to boost a population in a region, province or country. The whole idea is to produce people of a certain ethnic origin, as opposed to say dealing with the other issues in the society that are affecting reproduction to say opening up immigration.

The low birth rate in this province is not the result of any decrease in sexual activity. So what is behind the idea of a cash bonus for upping the birth rate?

2. Ethical Story of the Day: An admission by retiring Progressive Conservative MHA, Speaker Harvey Hodder, that members of the legislature - Hodder included - actually refrained from claiming legitimate expenses so they could maximize the amount of cash available to hand out in gifts. The Auditor General decried the money - termed "donations" - as inappropriate expenditures. Chief Justice Derek Green did likewise.

Hodder made the remarks on CBC Radio's St. John's Morning Show but the audio isn't available on line. There are related stories on the Auditor General's report in The Telegram but they also aren't available on line.

If you want to see a genuine example of the bizarre logic of politicians, consider a letter from Maura Hanrahan to local media on the subject. Rather than have a properly funded, fair and equitable program, they felt it better that they have cash to hand around entirely at their own discretion.

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Edible undies

At a regular council meeting, St. John's Mayor Andy Wells made a joke about charging travel expenses to his city account, saying he would only charge underwear if they were edible and therefore fell under the per diem for meals.

Guess Wells got the idea from the huge number of frustrated city residents who've told the usually caustic mayor over the years to "Eat my shorts!"

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Dueling youtubes

Steve Kent, the Liberal cum Tory mayor of Mount Pearl, has a video on youtube.

He gets big marks for using the technology: Facebook group. youtube video.

Blog. Well, suck some points off for the blog. It isn't a blog, just a glorified news release page that doesn't contain anything resembling "news".

This isn't a way to connect with Steve Kent personally and get some insight into his views. It's just packaged pap using flowery, "motherhood and bakeapple jam" kinda truisms.

Very "B" school marketing.

Not very Web 2.0.

Still for the website and the rest of the package, Kent is definitely ahead of the online candidate pack.

Anyway here's Kent's video:


I.P. Freely had this little one out first, though. It's vintage Web 2.0 political comms, and that's what makes campaigns fun. At posting, the Kent campaign vid had about 125 views. Freely's had 550.

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Leader's Tour Logic

Leader's Tour has become a staple of modern politics.

Everybody has one and where the leader goes can be an indication of strength or weakness, depending on perception.

Gerry Reid will be heading to Port de Grave and Bellevue, traditionally strong Liberal seats. There should be good visuals for the leader and Reid's trip on the second day of the formal campaign could be a clue the Grits want to shore up those strong seats before sallying elsewhere. There's a defensive element to the opening of the Liberal campaign.

Danny Williams will be unveiling the Progressive Conservative election platform at an event in Corner Brook after doing the customary greeting workers at the Kruger mill gate. Then Williams is off to Labrador.

Ordinarily that would be a sign the seats held by John Hickey and Jim Baker are solid. Maybe they are, but already there is word that the energy plan is perceived as snubbing Labrador. Again, it looks like a defensive play at the start.

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Election 2007: Day One Notes

1. Story of the Day: Incumbents seeking re-election who were mentioned in the Auditor General's report on Friday but who were not returning media phone calls. You can run but you can't hide.

2. Media Coverage story of the Day: Nobody carried the Tory campaign launch rally live. Timed to coincide with the supper hour news shows, as in 1999 and 2003, the Big Speech and the Big rally garnered squat. Not a single broadcaster gave the Premier free air time - live - to kick off his campaign.

3. Image of the Day: A toss-up. on the one hand there is footage of the bussed-in crowd (a small one at that) welcoming Liberal leader Gerry Reid as he climbed off a fishing boat to unveil the Liberal policy platform. If Simon (Lono) had been there, the biblical allusion to launching into the deep on faith couldn't have been more complete.

Your humble e-scribbler will swear on a stack of Bibles he had nothing to do with the whole thing; Biblical imagery is dangerous since today's fishing for votes can end up with the leader nailed to a tree. If that wasn't bad enough, only a relatively small number in the province might even pick up the message.

Tied with that is the Tory campaign with its references to the "Danny Williams team" while the bus and the website have nothing but pictures (updated) of the Big Giant Head from 2003's Tory ego campaign.

The Tories might win out, though, if we add the picture of Danny Williams flying to Deer Lake on a leased Cessna Citation executive jet hot on the heels of the House of Assembly extravagance report from the Auditor General. The CBC video of the Premier deplaning all by himself (not even a body man or other staffers) didn't quite match up with the "Team Danny" thing either.

Odd for a People's Campaign to have a decidedly capitalist mode of transportation.

4. Crushed Ego: The Tory campaign song dumped the references to what many took to be local bloggers heard in the version unveiled to the St. John's Board of Trade. The thing was running long, anyway. It still has plenty of stuff in it to fuel a dozen posts, like bizarre references to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians facing the future with "poisoned tongues" and an attitude.

5. Boosted Ego: remember we mentioned the phrase "The future is ours". Turns out it is the Tory campaign slogan.

Election prediction

Not updated yet, but expect an provincial election prediction section at - surprisingly - electionprediction.org.

There's also a predictor at the University of British Columbia.

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Election notes

1. CBC's provincial election website is up and running. Check it out. This one might be an interesting multimedia use of the new technology to bring you the blow-by-blow of the 21 day race. (Mixed metaphors are allowed.)

The blogspace is called Campaign Trail. Ho hum. No Cochrants. That was Dave's debrief cum rant on CBC radio Friday afternoon on the House of Assembly spending scandal. The last part of it was in such a high pitch that dogs in Paradise were howling.

2. The Libs have a new election website. When the other parties have their campaign sites running, we'll add the link to them all in a new box on the side.

3. One of things we'll be following at Bond and Persuasion Business will be the advertising and communications. There are strategies and approaches being used by all players, people and if we can help show how these sausages are being made, then it might help appreciate what is going on.

4. Speaking of the right margin, you'll find two new video boxes there. One links to Obama videos pulled up randomly based on a couple of keywords. The one underneath is political videos on youtube.com, including a This hour spoof.

Click the individual video thumbnail once and a small display will open at the top of the Bond Papers post column to display the vid. Click twice and you'll get straight to the youtube page for it.

5. CPAC, the Canadian public affairs channel, will be following the provincial election. The crew was out today and your humble e-scribbler was included for a quick interview. That's as good a reason as any to watch CPAC, but the real reason to follow their coverage will be the extensive, unedited segments they'll broadcast.

6. We'll also be watching and commenting on the use of new technologies and the way Web 2.0 might be used in the campaign.

I.P Freely is already at it again, but that's just one. He/she popped up earlier this year during the by-election so it's no surprise to see the site back again.

One thing's almost certain: we are unlikely to see a Web campaign akin to what has been happening nationally and internationally. Most local campaigns - provincially or locally - are still stuck in the old school, just like some of the commentary offered on it already.

There's plenty of facebook activity, and we'll give a run down on that in due course. In the meantime, don't forget to join the Bond fan group, Bond Buds. As we integrate various platforms, we'll make it easier and easier to get Bond content.

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How convenient for Len and Danny

Any bets Len Simms will get his patronage job back right after the election?

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March-ing toward oblivion

News that former ombudsman Fraser March might run for the Liberals in the next provincial general election should leave the party brass cold, especially in light of this story from Monday's Telegram.

Liberal Party president Danny Dumaresque is quoted in the Telegram saying, among other things, that polls don't bother him at all especially in light of the 1989 general election. He also claims there are a "number of prospective candidates of 'significant stature' who are coming forward for the next election".

Well, if Fraser March is an example of the candidates Dumaresque is turning up, better he focus his attention on something other than media calls. Apparently, the only thing Dumaresque has done so far is cause people to wonder who is actually leading the Liberals.

Normally, the party president is a back room job, a behind-the-scenes organizer. You know. The kind of thing a political party needs a scant five months before an election.

But Dumaresque appears on the airwaves and in the papers seemingly as often as party leader Gerry Reid. In the meantime, no star candidates have emerged. No prospects have been rumoured.

There's a convention coming up in June. So far little has been heard of it. Perhaps Dumaresque could have talked about that as another key step in the road to the fall election, rather than chat about the government's budget. Maybe there was something could have talked about instead of his skill at whistling past the graveyard.

Is March the sort of top notch candidate Dumaresque has in mind? Sadly, there isn't anybody else that Dumaresque has been able to offer up, so most voters will draw their own conclusions.

Bottom line is that Dumaresque talks a lot but his claims produce nothing good.

Results count.

Better for Danny Dumaresque to keep himself out of the news media. Better for him to stay in the back room and sort things out. Let results be the measure of his ability.

So far the combination of Dumaresque's unsubstantiated claims and stories like the March one make people wonder why we are even bothering to have an election in the fall anyway.

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Reasons there's no spring election, number whatever

Sucky poll results.

Strategic Counsel's numbers for the Globe: CPC 36/LPC 30/NDP 13/BQ 39.

And that's on the heels of the Decima results as reported by Canadian Press. The Conservatives at 30 are virtually tied with the Liberals, showing at 29. Decima's poll a month ago showed the federal Conservatives at 39%.

Mock Williams' promises ad circulates widely in NL

Bond Papers e-mail got bombed with this mock up of a print ad using Danny Williams' own "promises" approach against him.

Here it is.

Think we'll see more of these before October?

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