Showing posts with label oil revenues. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil revenues. Show all posts

18 November 2008

NL crude hits $51

Brent crude for January delivery hit US$51.84 in trading on London's commodity exchange Tuesday, the lowest settlement since January 2007.

Brent is the benchmark price for Newfoundland and Labrador light sweet crude.  Such a low close for January crude, and even allowing for a 20% currency premium - virtually guarantees that crude prices in the second half of the current fiscal year will average well below the government's assumed average of US$87 a barrel for the entire year.

In Alberta, the provincial treasurer today announced his province would lose $6.5 billion in revenue this year due to the economic downturn and lower oil and gas prices.  The 2008 Alberta budget assumed an average price for crude of $78 per barrel.

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23 September 2008

Everyone chill...for now

After a one day panic, oil prices settled back down on Tuesday.

NYMEX crude for November delivery was at US$106.81, with the spot for Brent and West Texas Intermediate at, respectively, US$101.70 and US$107.86.

Brent is the closest thing in price to Newfoundland light, sweet incidentally.

Oil prices may swing up and down over the next couple of days or even into next week, with much depending on the massive bail-out package working its way through the American federal Congress.

On the whole, though, it looks like oil will continue a generally downward trend over the next few months.

The implications of this dropping oil price will become more apparent for Newfoundland and Labrador very shortly.

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15 August 2008

Oil prices still on the decline

With some renewed strength in the American dollar, coupled with decreased demand, the price of crude oil for September delivery closed the week at US$111.

“The dollar is on fire again so that's causing people to re-evaluate everything,” said Phil Flynn, oil analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “It means oil prices could fall dramatically. We could see prices get to double digits if this continues.”

An OPEC forecast of lower demand also put downward pressure on prices.

Newfoundland and Labrador finance department officials may not be sweating yet, but if the trend continues to the end of the year, their forecast average price of $87 might not hold up. 

Even if the provincial government skates through the current fiscal year, it may have to restrain spending over the next couple of years or - a more likely scenario - boost borrowing to fuel the spending spree.

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12 August 2008

The Great Government Consumer Rip-Off

The 2003 general election did not herald a new approach, a new era in public policy or much "new" of any other sort except elites.

That's a point your humble e-scribbler has made several times and it bears repeating. In many respects, the Progressive Conservatives under Danny Williams have continued policies from Roger Grime's Liberals often times without any changes at all, let alone even cosmetic ones.

One of the most obvious examples of the continuation of Grimes policy is the consumer rip-off otherwise known as petroleum products pricing.

Regular readers will be familiar with the view around these parts of the provincially-run price-fixing scheme that masquerades as some sort of consumer protection.

It doesn't protect consumers from anything at all, since by interfering in the marketplace, the price fixing scheme serves only to slow the benefit to consumers of falling gasoline prices.

Like right now.

On Tuesday, crude oil hit US$112, its lowest close in three months.

Consumers are not paying the same price per litre for gasoline that they were three months ago.

In fact, oil dropped dramatically just last week, but the petroleum office did not lower prices a single penny. gasoline sits, on average about 12 cents per litre higher in Newfoundland than across Ontario, but if you look at the localised breakdowns the price gap is disgustingly wide.  In glorious Kingston, Ontario, where your humble e-scribbler is currently enjoying the rain, gasoline is retailing for $1.17 per litre.

The situation is not far off what obtained three years ago but even then it was fairly obvious that the marketplace was delivering price breaks to consumers that the government-orchestrated scam could not.  heck, at a time when prices were dropping across North America only a few weeks ago, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians enjoyed a price increase, courtesy of the government folly.

Now when this whole fraud was foisted on the public, the politicians could be forgiven if they were simply suckered into it as a vote ploy.  Some of them might have even been fooled into believing the silly arguments used to justify it that somehow consumers would be protected from the "evil" oil companies if the provincial government established maximum prices for (some) petroleum products,

There isn't really the same excuse any more and there certainly hasn't been since 2003.  After only a couple of years of operation, the folly of government-organized oil price fixing was evident, at least to consumers.

The argument for government price-fixing is even harder to swallow now that the provincial government has joined the ranks of the oil companies. 

Consider if you will, that simple point when (if?) the Hebron deal gets signed.  Sitting at the table will be major oil companies who produce crude oil and who retail gasoline across North America. The petroleum pricing scheme was supposed to protect consumers from their supposed "gouging".

Sitting right next to them will be a new oil producer who, at least in this province, not only produces crude oil but who also legally fixes the retail price for gasoline products.  We just don't know where the government share of the crude will be refined and sold, but what's to stop it from coming back to this province or - if the provincial government gets involved further with NLRC - never leaves it?

It's a sweet set up.

But not for consumers.

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19 October 2007

Watch this guy

An economist who can discuss economics concepts in plain English.

Scary thought from the dismal science corner - just kidding - but one we should all take time to consider.

Take for example, this simple observation about rising oil prices and the relative price of the United States dollar.

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