Burke needs map to sound policy

From The muse, Joan Burke on the need for the feds to pony up even more money for an area of exclusive provincial jurisdiction.

That's not the funny bit. A half century ago provinces were manning the borders to keep the federal government out of their backyard. Now everyone - including Danny Williams - is looking to get Ottawa to pay for just about everything.

Skip down to the bit where the province's education minister wants to get in on nationally co-ordinated literacy testing but she wants to make sure the tests are relevant to Newfoundland and Labrador.

Think about that for a minute.

We want to test literacy, but we want to make sure that the concept of reading and writing is actually relevant to this province. That sort of comment used to refer to the stunnedness of asking some young fellow from Bung Hole Tickle about the correct method of riding the subway.

Read the next line in the article and you will see what Burke had in mind: map-reading. Apparently being able to read a map is a skill useful only in big cities, where if all else failed you could...oooh...maybe ask someone for directions.

Out here in the middle of the freakin' woods where every tree looks suspiciously like every other tree and on the barrens the whole place is one pile of rocks and low shrubs shrouded in fog, the population consists of some bizarre products of Darwinian evolution who have GSP codes in their DNA.

Only problem is, Burke's theory doesn't quite explain the number of people around here who get lost in the country and die of exposure. "Triptik? We dun need no stinkin' CAA triptik"

By that sort of logic, someone would likely conclude the unfortunate sods were really mainlanders in disguise.

Around these parts, we'd suggest Burke needs a roadmap to a sound literacy policy.

We'd draw one but she may not be able to understand it.

Defamation mania spreads

From Offal News, the latest in Polish defamation lawsuits.

Confusion at Disneyland?

National Defence Headquarters, located at 101 Colonel By Drive in Ottawa and known to some as Disneyland on the Rideau is the scene these days of some policy disagreement between the Gordon O'Connor, Minister of National Defence, and General Rick Hillier, Chief of Defence Staff.

The disagreement seems to be leading to confusion, as two news stories this week attest.

On Tuesday, CBC's Rob North reported from Halifax that the federal government will be going ahead with a plan to create an 800-strong amphibious force to be based in Atlantic Canada. Consisting of ships, submarines, helicopters and soldiers of various kinds, the contingency force would be a special force able to deploy just about anywhere in the world.

North doesn't quote anybody directly in the story, but this sort of thing wouldn't hit the air unless North and his bosses were satisfied it was accurate based on several sources.

Odd then that on Wednesday, the Ottawa Citizen's David Pugliese reports that the contingency force plan will be delayed for at least three years, plans to bring recruits into the system faster will be put on hold and work to bring up to full strength the special force based at Petawawa will
also be slowed.

Pugliese covers defence issues and covers them very well, by most accounts. His story contains quotes from Hillier. Take as an example this one, in which Hillier is obviously talking about the need to adjust expansion plans based on demands for Afghanistan, security support for the Olympics and the realities of trying to expand the Regular Force:

"I've had to take a bit of an appetite suppressant," Gen. Rick Hillier, chief of the defence staff, said in an interview with the Citizen.
...

"All those things are increasing and a big load here and I need to balance that load," Gen. Hillier said.

He stressed that recruiting is still going strong and the military will meet its targets this year to fill the ranks.

Strictly speaking, North's story isn't wrong. The amphibious force will go ahead; it just won't be happening any time soon. At the same time, the contrast between these two stories couldn't be any more stark in their tone and their implications.

The Pugliese story, though, has a bit more detail that suggests some give and take going on between the Minister and Canada's senior soldier.

Pugliese reports that the army commander, Lieutenant General Andrew Leslie, right [Photo: Ottawa Citizen], told a Fraser Institute conference on Tuesday that the army will be "pushing" winter warfare training in the near future. The army shifted away from that skill in favour of skills needed in other climates. Cold weather and Arctic operations are a key component of O'Connor's "Canada First" plan.

There must be a by-election in Labrador West

Hence education minister Joan Burke's speech in Labrador City on women's issues.

Chilly Wally dissects the quiet former pols

A rejoinder to Ryan Cleary's latest column in The Independent.

Bath of cold water?

A chill wind?

The cliches are endless even if the post is far from cliche.

Sullivan explains secret bonus

Former finance minister Loyola Sullivan, whose surprise resignation from the legislature in December spurred days of speculation, has defended $2875 in bonus payments made to members of the legislature in 2004 but not made public until earlier this year.

In his letter to [Speaker Harvey] Hodder, Sullivan said not all the facts and context about how the bonus decision was made have been explained.

Sullivan said restraint measures at the legislature included a two-year wage freeze and a five-per-cent rollback on constituency allowances.

Sullivan added the IEC also "created efficiencies" throughout the house of assembly's operation, including the library and Hansard, "which meant hundreds of thousands of dollars of savings."

The IEC then eliminated a $4,800 discretionary component of constituency allowances, for which members did not need to submit receipts.

Sullivan said in March-April 2004, some MHAs reported they had exhausted their constituency allowances but still had incurred expenses.

Oddly enough, the details of the spending decision were made public by Hodder before Sullivan's letter was sent in mid-February.

What Sullivan - who, along with other members of the Internal Economy commission, approved the bonus payment - didn't explain is how the House of Assembly consistently overspent the allowances budget line item in 2004 and 2005 by a total of almost $1.0 million after the supposed restraint measures were implemented. That couldn't have been done without Sullivan's knowledge and approval.

Since Loyola Sullivan's letter raises once again the numerous questions about what happened before June 2006, who knew, what they knew and what they did about it, Loyola has done the public a tremendous service:

he has given us yet another reason to hold a public inquiry.

NS Highlander killed in accidental shooting

Corporal Kevin Megeney, a reserve soldier with the Nova Scotia Highlanders, died Tuesday in Afghanistan after being shot in the chest, accidentally.

The incident is reportedly under investigation.

Under new management

The New Barrelman was a local blog that died sometime last year. You can find it listed in the "Top o' the Pile" section on the right hand nav bar.

The name was open at first but it has been taken - for some reason - by a blogger somewhere in Asia. Other local blogs have been captured by marketers trying to drive traffic to a host of websites with nothing to do with the original blog.

So......, Sir Robert has taken The New Barrelman as an associated blog, under a slightly different url. Acquisitions in cyberspace are pretty cheap which is a good thing.

There's not much content there so far, but that will change shortly.

Byrne at odds with thinking?

From vocm.com, a short piece on west coast member of parliament Gerry Byrne and reaction to a report on mining by the Fraser Institute:

Byrne at odds with think tank

Liberal MP Gerry Byrne says with the mining industry booming in this province there is no reason for a western based think tank like to take jabs at our success. Byrne was responding to comments by the Fraser Institute on our improvement in the rankings of mining jurisdictions around the world. They questioned the improvement given disputes in the offshore. Byrne told VOCM Back Talk with Bill Rowe it's as if the Fraser Institute doesn't want to see us succeed.

Maybe there's a comment that isn't reported widely.

The news release from the Fraser Institute says pretty clearly:

The Atlantic Provinces also showed significant upward movement, with New Brunswick moving to sixth overall from 18th, Nova Scotia improving to 17th from 35th and Newfoundland and Labrador rising to 22nd from 39th. The Yukon was the lone other Canadian territory to improve, rising to 11th from 21st last year.

The full report bears that out, across the board in all categories. If there were any comments linking mining to the offshore, then any linkage would show the person involved didn't really understand the issues. The provincial government hasn't really noticed mining as a source of revenue. Danny Williams doesn't show it the same level of attention he gives to oil and gas.

Therefore, there isn't much experience that would lead a mining company to shun this province based on actual experience.

So what the heck is Gerry talking about?

Only he and Bill Rowe likely know.

Aussie oil and gas production to jump

Australian oil production may rise 15% in 2007, with gas rising 22%, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

The full report includes some interesting observations about trends in the oil and gas industry globally that have echoes in the local political environment. For example:

Increased costs

Costs of developing new projects and production have increased universally across the world’s minerals and energy industries over the past four or five years. Increased costs have been associated with an almost unprecedented increase in the demand for a range of inputs, such as equipment, materials, skilled labour and mining services, required to bring on new capacity. In some cases the available supplies simply cannot meet demand and the associated delays add further costs, reducing production and delaying the start up of new projects.

Political and security risks may impede supply growth

In a number of oil producing countries, sovereign, geopolitical and security risks have the potential to adversely affect supply. In 2006, it is estimated that 10 per cent of production capacity in Nigeria was lost as a result of attacks on production facilities.

Sovereign risk, which includes significant changes to government policies or political interference, also creates uncertainty for oil supply. Recent examples include national governments changing agreements with oil companies or nationalising industries. For example, in the Russian Federation, Royal Dutch Shell and its partners, Mitsui and Mitsubishi were obliged to sell a share of their stakes in the Sakhalin project to Gazprom, the Russian government owned gas company. In Venezuela, the government is converting previous agreements with foreign investors into joint venture agreements in which the nationally owned PDVSA is required to hold a minimum 60 per cent interest. In addition, royalties and corporation taxes applied to the oil industry have been increased by 33 per cent and 50 per cent respectively. Such unpredictable changes to the regulatory and fiscal environment represent an important risk and have the potential to compromise foreign investment and limit significant expansions of supply. [Emphasis added]

ABARE also notes a decline in exploration over the past decade. In 2005, 10% of wells drilled globally were exploration wells, compared to 20-25% in the 1990s. Interest is being focused in a smaller number of exploration projects which have higher comparative exploration costs.

In that context, this trend will make it much more difficult for Newfoundland and Labrador to attract new investment for exploration. Costs of operating in the North Atlantic are already high, thereby reducing profitability. Coupled with the costs of what ABARE calls "sovereign risk" and the general increase in exploration costs, government policies may well lead to a dramatic decline in exploration offshore in the next five to 10 years.

Alberta pitches oil patch; O'Brien to pitch tent in desert

Here's the difference between a booming economy and one forecast to plateau for a while.

Representatives from business and government in Alberta are in the United Kingdom looking for investment. They have as a foundation the tremendous success of a booming economy and a province that is widely known to welcome investment from anywhere.

Meanwhile, Kevin O'Brien, the Minister of Business will be packing up his trade show booth and heading to Qatar and Japan, of all places, to explore what are vaguely described as "opportunities."

He has as his foundation the province's well-deserved reputation as a place where the government makes it damn hard to do business. O'Brien will likely find he is as successful in peaking interest in his province as Albania was in the 1980s.

The plain observation here is that O'Brien has no leads, no contacts and nothing of consequence to accomplish. He is just going to do an old-fashioned junket: attend a few meetings, visit some trade shows and - at the end - pronounce on all the marvelous possibilities that exist out there. We've all seen it a thousand times and it typically produces exactly squat when it comes to meaningful results.

Of course, real business opportunities would be developed by the private sector businesses in the province, not by a provincial government minister. Consider, for example, that Fortis just cut an amazing deal to expand its portfolio without any help from O'Brien or his colleague Trevor Taylor.

This administration needs to recognize its economic development value consists entirely of creating the right climate for business development. Sadly, there seems to be an insistence that it - i.e. government, alone - is the engine to do anything.

Throughout the 1990s, the province's economy developed and diversified based on a simple understanding that government does not create jobs. By 2007, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have come to realize that their government has taken a leap away from ideas that have shown their value at home and abroad to return to policies from the 1980s that were known even then to be disastrously wrong.

What we have is an economy that remains underdeveloped and will remain so for some considerable time.

In the meantime, the best the provincial government has to offer is yet another cabinet minister on yet another publicly-funded trip to yet another bevy of exotic locales to explore yet more vague "opportunities".

The only ones who seem to get anything out of these safaris are the ministers and their retainers, who get to see the glories of thriving economies - everywhere else, of course - and the travel agents who book the passage.

Dunderdale slags Big Oil

That should come as a shock.

The issue is a recent court decision on rules on local investment set by the offshore regulatory board in 2004 and challenged by the oil companies doing business in the province.

The courts ruled against the oil companies who will seek leave to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court of Canada.

Notice that at no point does Dunderdale say anything positive about the offshore board which implemented the new levy before Danny Williams decided the whole crowd in the Duckworth Street offices were not looking out for the best interests of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

Williams thought the board needed Andy Wells to get it right.

Apparently not.

NL hostile to business investment?

From Canadian Press, story gaining national attention on Monday, the idea that the provincial government's actions on several prominent business files is discouraging investment in the province.

"For the rest of business in Canada, Newfoundland is a somewhat distant and not very well understood place," [business professor Joseph] D'Cruz said.

"I suspect that the rest of Canada also believes that the hand of government is very heavy in Newfoundland . . . that government is also quite involved in business decision-making in a way, for example, that the Ontario government is not."

From the St. John's Board of Trade comes a comment so general and bland as to confirm the substance of David Cochrane's recent speech to that body.

No wonder Mr. Cochrane's remarks are garnering such attention.

Boeing may cut off C-17

Boeing may shutting down production of the C-17 long-range airlifter due to a shortage of orders. The company has taken the first step by cancelling parts orders with its supply chain.

Based on the Conservative Party's defence platform - reportedly drawn up by retired general and former defence industry lobbyist Gordon O'Connor before he was appointed Minister of National Defence - Canada is buying four of the massive aircraft at a cost of $1.8 billion plus an additional $1.6 billion.

Canada's order won't be affected by the Boeing decision, unless the country were to try and buy more C-17s.

If this guy ran Hydro...

The Lower Churchill would have been built already, employing Newfoundlanders and Labradorians in the process, providing plenty of power to markets at home and abroad and making money to boot.

As it is, Fortis' expertise in large energy projects is being directed at development outside Newfoundland and Labrador.

That's all fine and good, but it makes one wonder what might have been if things had turned out differently 15 years ago.

CP = Completely pollyanna

Apparently, a few simple, routine platitudes - like congrats on your anniversary and gee, my job's tough, what must yours be like? - are enough to convince Canadian Press that Danny Williams, right [Photo: Greg Locke] is trying to thaw out relations with Prime Minister Stephen Harper with a charm offensive.

The Prime Minister apparently responded cordial - as one would expect - and made this comment on Equalization:

"As part of its commitment to restoring fiscal balance, my government will put equalization and other federal transfers back on a long-term, predictable and principle-based track, while respecting offshore accords," Harper wrote.

Donnez-moi le break.

For decades, Canadian Press has been known for its solid rapportage and commentary. It never involved pollyanna-ish stuff.

Until now.

Stephen Harper's response to Danny Williams is consistent with the rumored plans to implement some variation of of the O'Brien panel's recommendations on Equalization.

Given the date of the letter, Danny Williams' fluffy correspondence might have more to do with a pro forma exercise on behalf of the Council of the Federation than some sort of slackening of Williams' anger at all things west of the Port au Port peninsula. Look at the date on the letter for cryin' out loud.

NL and NS governments sharing same economic brain?

From the front page of the Saturday Halifax Chronicle Herald - known affectionately to some as the Chronically Horrid - is proof that Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador are sharing the same political genius.

Nova Scotia finance minister Michael Baker is warning Nova Scotians that the Progressive Conservative's $1.0 billion in election promises might not be fulfilled right away. Baker is blaming it on Stephen Harper:

Mr. Baker said the province made those commitments because Prime Minister Stephen Harper had promised a new equalization formula that would have boosted Nova Scotia’s bank account. That hasn’t happened yet.

Meanwhile, in this province, Premier Danny Williams has pledged a $2.0 billion capital works program and coverage for multiple sclerosis drugs under the province's drug plan. That's in additional to personal income tax cuts promised last year by former finance minister Loyola Sullivan and reaffirmed by his replacement.

Williams had likely planned on spending a bundle this year anyway, in advance of the general election this fall. He will still make the spending commitments but he'll head into the election fighting with Ottawa as a political bonus.

In 2008, when the bills show up and the economy slows down as predicted, Williams will be singing a different tune on public spending, but then he'll be following the Nova Scotia lead and
blame Ottawa.

Welcome to the New Approach.

Soviet intelligence expert gunned down in DC?

The headline on this story in the Globe says "Soviet" but the lede says a fellow who specializes in Russian intelligence services was shot near his home in suburban Washington.

It appeared to be a robbery.

Yeah, right.

That's what it is supposed to look like. Looks like the boys from the old Department V are at it again.

PQ on the way down?

From Reuters, an article on the Quebec general election that notes the results of the latest Leger poll.

The Liberals are leading the Parti Quebecois, 36% to 29%. Action democratique is at 25%. Among francophones, the Liberals and the ADQ each have 28%, with the PQ holding 33% of francophone voters. Non- francophone respondents indicated overwhelmingly in favour of the Liberals.

And from le devoir, coverage of Jean Charest, including this message to the Prime Minister from Charest:

"Les Québécois s'attendent à ce qu'il y ait un progrès significatif et concret dans le dossier du déséquilibre fiscal. Le gouvernement fédéral a en main tout ce qu'il faut pour prendre ses décisions."

The Great Blue Hearn on Credibility

Contrary to what some may believe, your humble e-scribbler has a lot of time for Loyola Hearn. [left, why is that finger sticking out? Photo: Greg Locke].

Hearn is an experienced and capable politician who has shown, over the years, that he can take and give a punch.

Danny Williams could take a few lessons from the wily fellow from Renews.

Once in a while, though, Hearn displays the kind of chutzpah that only a veteran could risk and keep a straight face.

Like Friday, for example, when Hearn issued a statement from his ministerial office tackling Liberal member of parliament Scott Simms for his little stunt about German boar hunting as a retaliation for a likely German Bundestag bill that will ban the importation of Canadian seal products:

Even today's motion plays directly into the hands of the anti-seal hunt movement. Instead of defending the hunt's standards, and putting forward the facts that the hunt is both humane AND sustainable, the message Simms is putting forward via the media seems to be "At least, we're not as bad as so-and-so."

Simms has fallen into the activists' trap and his irrational reaction can only hurt our argument regarding sustainable and humane hunts for a multitude of species. We will work with the EU on ensuring their members' hunts - including Germany's deer and wild boar hunt - are at least as sustainable and humane as our seal hunt.

Part of cabinet minister Hearn's problem has less to do with Simms' lack of input on legislation and much more to do with the fact that Simms [right Photo: Greg Locke] is taking a leaf from opposition politician Hearn's playbook. Simms is being extraordinarily successful when it comes to gaining popular support in Newfoundland and Labrador for his little escapade. Radio talk shows over the past few days have been filled with callers praising Simms' initiative.

Hearn is incommunicado, apparently, but that is really his own call or that of his comms people.

Hearn meanwhile is left with issuing this statement - days after the story broke - that commits to working with the European Union blah blah blah. It's hardly as dramatic. It's hardly the stuff to get you interviewed on Newsworld. It's hardly the stuff that made the name "Loyola Hearn" a legend among the crowd on Open Line.

That is, before he went from being Mister Hearn to Minister Hearn.

Hearn went off the chutzpah scale - he long ago fried the Bond Papers' Cred-o-Meter - though with his last comment:

What sort of credibility do they think they'll have the next time their party says that they want to seriously deal with issues in the fishery?

Let's just say that the Liberals will have as much credibility as Hearn. This is the guy after all who made a huge deal about having his party declare its unequivocal, unflinching and irrevocable policy that, should it form a government, it would immediately take control of international waters outside the 200 mile exclusive economic zone and manage fisheries in the region in a form called custodial management.

Hearn [left. Official ministerial portrait] took great pride in a private members motion on the issue in 2004 and earned accolades from his provincial brethren for his efforts. Hearn used to rail against NAFO, the international fisheries association, claiming it was dead, useless and any other negative adjective he could think of.

That was before he became the fish minister.

Scarcely a month after being sworn to the Privy Council and getting the ministerial car and driver to boot, Hearn was pledging his unwavering support for exactly the policies he used to condemn. NAFO was getting better, said the guy who declared it dead. This wasn't much of a surprise to Bond Papers' readers, though. They had seen the unmistakable signs here, here, here. Heck just go back to the archives and read anything on Hearn between December 2005 and March 2006.

Hearn's credibility is likely to take a severe blow with his statement today on Simms' boar war. It was a noteworthy gaffe from a crafty old politician who, until now, has been able to avoid answering for the discrepancies between the old Loyola and the new one.

It's easier to do that when you avoid interviews. For some reason, though, Loyola decided to stick his head up on this one today with a pissy statement. Maybe the rumours are true.

Maybe something does happen to you when you get to be a regional minister from Newfoundland with a thing about fish.

Separated at birth 3

Boar warrior Scott Simms, left, [Photo: Greg Locke]







and Scott Evil, right, [Photo: not Greg Locke]

"I have a gun, in my room, you give me five seconds, I'll get it, I'll come back down here, BOOM, I'll blow their brains out!"

Ball's in play

The recount is done.

Dwight Ball is the new member of the House of Assembly for Humber Valley.

By seven votes.

Equalization: We'll huff and we'll puff...

and we'll hold our breath until we turn blue.

Well, deeper blue.

Maybe purple.

And if that doesn't work we'll stamp our feet.

The provincial government of Danny Williams has such an effective relationship with Ottawa that its operatives must resort to leaking correspondence to the Globe and Mail's Brian Laghi in an effort to get anyone to pay attention to them.

All that it nets is the repetition of the same old lines from the provincial government:

- Stephen Harper won't confirm he plans to live up to a commitment he made during the last federal election.

- Losing federal handouts "would very seriously undermine the progress we have made and our prospects for the future."

Then there's the old chestnut:

"It would electrify the electorate," a provincial source said of how such a move would play in a federal election.

Maybe the unnamed source on this one is the same source that told Danny Williams that pulling down the Canadian flag was a dandy idea. We all know what a magically delicious mistake that was. Even the Premier's own pollster couldn't demonstrate that one was overwhelmingly popular even her in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Anyone following this issue knows full-well that the federal government has moved off its campaign commitment in favour of something else. Even Danny Williams has moved off his own position at the time. The exact impact of the federal Equalization changes will be known when they come.

But here's the thing: as much as Williams may try and throw another tantrum over the whole thing, his own political potency is weakened and the current federal government will know exactly how to deal with him. The unnamed source who muses about "electrifying" the electorate is taking poor lessons from history.

Bond projection: The only thing likely to get electrified to any serious degree will be the seats in the PMO waiting room. That will only be done to keep the Premier's personal representative from hanging out to get a chance to meet with anyone in the PMO as he or she walks out to their car to head to a meeting with someone the PMO is actually paying attention to.

Ireland mission leads to MOU...again

Premier Danny Williams' business mission to Ireland netted another memorandum of understanding with the Irish government.

This one will focus on ocean surveillance technology.

Try and find any reference to Danny Williams, Newfoundland and Labrador and the MOU here on Irish natural resources minister Noel Dempsey's personal website or on his departmental one.

No luck?

Try the website for the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government.

Still nothing current?

How about the aggregator website for the entire Irish government?

Keep looking.

Scientists call for end to fishing fuel subsidies

A team of international scientists is calling for an end to government fuel subsidies that allow commercial fishing fleets to move to deeper and deeper water.

"The bottom line is that mistakes made now could take over a century to recover, if they are at all reversible," says [Krista] Baker. Baker and Richard Haedrich of Memorial University in Newfoundland looked at the complete deep-sea fish fauna of the North West Atlantic – one of the first attempts to do so. They found that 40% of the deep-sea species for which data are available, are in decline. "This is a steady decline, just down and down until the cupboard is almost bare," says Baker. "Given the documented declines and the lack of life history data to know what recovery times would even be, conservation measures in the deep-sea are urgent now."

Gushue to run for Tories?

Brad, that is, not John.

It would fit the pattern for the current administration.

The Olympic gold medalist was asked by Canadian Press about politics being in his future. The reply, as carried by the Edmonton Sun:

"Well, there was a rumour going around that I was going to be running in the next (provincial) election," he said with a chuckle. "Maybe down the road, but not in the near future.

"I had three media outlets in Newfoundland call me requesting an interview because they heard I was running in the election and had been promised a (cabinet) minister's position."

Gushue might not be running but the Golden Boy of Mount Pearl will. That's the Bond projection and we are sticking to that one.

Steve Kent will run for the Tories in Waterford-Kenmount to replace Harvey Hodder.

Quebec election comms

From la presse blogeur Stephane Laporte, a critique of campaign advertising thus far.

Even if you don't speak French, take a look at the television spots linked in the article. The Parti quebecois ads are funky. They have a guerrilla advertising feel to them with a little humor. The PQ site is pretty much up-to-date with current fads. There is a blogue section which is actually a blog. There are podcasts, labelled Radio PQ.

The Parti liberale spots are pretty conventional in look and content, emphasising that public priorities are Liberal priorities. There is a pretty simple use of technology in what are labelled blogues but which are actually just little videos featuring prominent cabinet ministers speaking on major issues.

China boosts oil incentives

In an effort to secure additional energy sources, China announced Thursday it was adding nine countries to its list of economies where its companies can gain incentives to invest.

Chinese companies can get tax breaks or other incentives for investing in oil and gas industries in Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Morocco, Libya, Niger, Norway, Ecuador and Bolivia, according to an announcement by China's top planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission.

Progress on passport initiative

Three Canadian premiers, in Washington to push for alternatives to proposed American border controls, found a powerful ally Wednesday in House rules committee chair Louise Slaughter (D-NY).

Grimes may sue too

Transportation minister John Hickey filed a statement of claim against former premier Roger Grimes on Tuesday in the ongoing battle over Grimes' comments on Hickey's double billing of his legislature expense accounts.

Grimes is now looking for an apology from Premier Danny Williams.

From the story by Rob Antle in Thursday's Telegram:

On Feb. 14, Williams went on open line and implied that Grimes called Hickey a "criminal."

But Grimes told The Telegram he did not do so.

"The fact of the matter is Danny Williams said that. Roger Grimes never, ever, ever said any of that publicly."

Grimes charged that those comments were the slanderous ones.

"(My) lawyers say the only defamation that's occurred in this whole process has been the premier on open line suggesting falsely to the public that I said things that I never, ever said," Grimes said.

Now, Grimes wants his own apology.

His lawyers wrote a letter hand-delivered to the premier's office Monday. They demanded that Williams apologize by Friday.

If such an apology is not forthcoming, Grimes will consult with friends and legal counsel to examine his options over the weekend.

Hillier on Goose Bay: uncertain

As Radio Canada reported on 24 Feb, Chief of Defence Staff General Rick Hiller said he could not pronounce on the future of the military base at Goose Bay.

He told reporters that while the existing personnel would remain in place, he was also uncertain about the base's future.

-------------------------------

Observation: This story does not appear to have been picked up in English-language media.

Complete French text below:

Le commandant en chef des forces armées canadiennes, Rick Hillier, affirme qu'il ne peut se prononcer sur l'avenir de la base militaire de Happy Valley-Goose Bay à Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador. Il dit être en attente d'informations d'Ottawa à ce sujet. [Hillier is actually the Chief of the Defence Staff, not commander in chief. In Franch, that would be Chef d'etat-major de la Defense.]

Même s'il confirme que le personnel de la base restera en place, le général Hillier affirme qu'il est lui aussi dans l'incertitude quant à son avenir.

Lors de la dernière campagne électorale fédérale, le Parti conservateur avait promis d'augmenter les effectifs à Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador afin, notamment, d'assurer une surveillance de l'Atlantique et de l'Arctique.

Aucune annonce concrète n'a été faite depuis, toutefois. Ce qui a fait dire aux libéraux que le gouvernement conservateur n'a pas l'intention de respecter cette promesse.

Antle and Cochrane: a Northern view

From the truly Great White North, former reporter's Craig Welsh's towniebastard perspective on work this week by Rob Antle at the Telegram, and David Cochrane's speech to the Board of Trade.

Craig links to both Antle and Cochrane. [left. Photo: cbc.ca. Does that look like the face of a wild-eyed radical to you?] You can find them elsewhere on Bond as well.

He makes some valid, well-argued points about the difficult job of reporting. No argument from here and your humble e-scribbler will take a few lumps if some of the criticism of reporters Craig mentions has come from this space.

Then Craig wonders where the pro-Danny blogs are.

There are a few. It doesn't take much scrolling to find them on the blog roll at right. Craig mentions Liam O'Brien at Responsible Government League and rightly notes that Liam has changed his view markedly over the course of time. Check out nf.general on the old part of the Internet, though, and you'll find many more doing their bit to support the Danny cause. For a case in point, have a gander at the thread on Cochrane's speech.

On blogs, it can be easy to forget that the audience for blogs in this province is small. While something like Bond can reach some pretty influential audiences, there's just no matching the readership of the province's major daily or the eyeballs glued to NTV every night for Fred, Lynn, Toni, and Glen. Government puts its effort where it brings the greatest result.

It's also important to recall that Danny's comms approach is inherited, in large part, from what went immediately before. A surprising number of his comms people - starting at the top - came out of the Tobin/Grimes system and they continue to do what they learned when they started. Others who have come on board since 2003 follow the general pattern already laid out. Largely it works, or, to be more accurate, seems to work.

There's a reason why this administration, like the Tobin and Grimes ones before it, uses radio talk shows as extensively as it does. Talk radio makes it much easier to get the word out unfiltered. In dealing with other media, the messaging still works, largely because reporters work with the disadvantage of not knowing a lot of things or having the time to background a story to be properly briefed. The entire crowd in this market can be as hardnosed and persistent as the best of them out there anywhere, but more often than not you need to know what to ask in order to get the information.

Given the pressures on modern newsrooms, it is rare to see a place - print, radio, or television - with the budget or a reporter with the time to be able to undertake the sort of in-depth research Antle obviously did. Not so long ago, that sort of background would have been done shortly after the story first broke. As it is, Antle wound up taking something eight months to piece it all together. That isn't a criticism of him; rather take it as an admonition to consider the human dimension to his job and that of all his colleagues.

To get back to blogs, though, this provincial government pays as much attention to blogs as most business people in the province. While blogging has become a very potent communications tool elsewhere, around these parts, people are still waking up to the phenomenon. Your humble e-scribbler was asked again this evening by a colleague if this effort generates any business. Not a stain, went the reply, although in virtually every other market, the seemingly obvious demonstration of the impact a blog can have plus whatever other skills and knowledge are evident here would likely pull the odd hobble.

Craig finishes off with an observation about what the next six months might bring. The first couple of months of the New Year have brought all sorts of bizarre developments in politics and elsewhere.

No one knows what's around the next corner and that's part of what will make 2007 a fascinating year in Newfoundland and Labrador.

It also makes for great blogging.

David Cochrane: Patriotic Correctness

CBC provincial reporter David Cochrane spoke to the St. John's Board of Trade last week.

His speech is insightful, well-founded and hard hitting.

Geoff Meeker has a copy which he has edited slightly and posted in its entirety.

Read it.

You won't be disappointed.

Dead blog in the middle of the road

Public discussion is dead over at Sue's little corner of cyberspace.

It was only a matter of time.

Free speech isn't free if it's underground.

Quebec and NL in same economic and political boat

This column by the Globe and Mail's Konrad Yakabuski describes Quebec as a province on the edge of a financial precipice.

The basis for Yakabuski's comments is a document released over a year ago by Lucien Bouchard and several prominent political scientists and economists. They argued, according to Yakabuski, "that Quebeckers were sleepwalking toward self-annihilation by failing to address the ticking time bombs of an ever-expanding provincial debt, sluggish economic growth and a population that is aging faster than anywhere else in the developed world except Japan."

One could easily switch "Newfoundland and Labrador" for "Quebec" and the names of local politicians for the crowd in this province. The tale is the same.

Public debt and the implications of demographic change sit as twin 800 pound gorillas in the middle of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. Not a single politician will even acknowledge their presence, let alone deal with them.

Increased dependence on federal transfers is occurring in Quebec; in Newfoundland and Labrador, restoring Newfoundland and Labrador to dependence on the federal government is the core of Danny Williams' policy.

Quebec receives 20% of its revenue from Mon Oncle Ottawa; in Newfoundland and Labrador, the figure is somewhere between 30% - the official government figure - and over 40% - the figure from the Fraser Institute.

In some respects, Newfoundland and Labrador is actually in far worse shape than Quebec.

Yakabuski notes that Quebec runs the risk of having health care eat up 68% of public spending in 2030, compared with 43% today. Newfoundland and Labrador currently spends 31% of its budget on health care, but all social sector spending - health, plus education and social services - makes up 72% of government spending.

Not only is the situation already worse in some ways, the size of the problem is increasing at a greater rate here than in Quebec. Our neighbours to the west may be facing a sluggish economy. Newfoundland and Labrador is staring into an economic slowdown induced as much as anything else by a combination of conscious government policy in the case of the oil sector and, in the case of the fishery, a chronic inability to deal with a manifest disaster.

Quebec may be ignoring a problem. In Newfoundland and Labrador, politicians seem to be working hard at making the problems worse.

The provincial government here is actively pursuing a hydro-electric development that would cost upwards of $9.0 billion to build. Hydro board chairman Dean MacDonald told The Independent recently that government is seriously considering the very expensive option of shipping power around Quebec to other markets based on the belief that the deal would pay off sometime after 2041. If Premier Danny Williams is to be believed, he is prepared to defer revenue on that approach, that is to sell power for little or no profit in the meantime. That's 35 years from now. Quebec will at least make money from its hydro power. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the government may well wind up, in effect, paying people to take our resources away for a very long time.

For both provinces, though, the words of one Quebec economist are equally applicable:

"For now, someone else is paying, and it's other Canadians. But we're going to hit a wall and [the rest of Canada] is going to say: 'You're asking us to pay for programs that we can't even afford for ourselves,' " said Claude Montmarquette, one of the authors of the manifesto and an economics professor at the University of Montreal.

Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador are in the same economic boat.

Quebec politicians may not be bailing against the rising seas, but at least they aren't opening the seacocks to settle the ship of state lower in the water.

A magically delicious waste of time

Danny Williams is in Ireland, in part to further the Ireland Business Partnership.

Meanwhile, three other premiers - from Ontario, Manitoba and New Brunswick - are in the United States trying to make sure that the border to our largest trading partner is as easy to cross as possible.

In honour of the Premier's trip across the pond, along with an expensive retinue, here are a couple of observations.

If you look at the Newfoundland half of this partnership, there is a preponderance of emphasis on cultural pursuits. Take a look at the 2005-06 annual report. On the face of one would have a hard time understanding why this whole thing isn't called the Ireland Cultural partnership and run out of the tourism department.

Now to be fair, the whole thing costs less than the members of the House overspent on their allowances budgets in 2005, but this is labelled as a business initiative.

So where's the business?

On top of that, if the initiative is so important, if there really is such potential here, how come the news release portion of the project website hasn't been updated since November 2005? There were a couple of announcements in 2006, but they are all cultural in nature. You'll find them on the main government website though. The festival of the Sea thing had its own website and sure enough that portion of the partnership was maintained as recently as last October.

But where's the business?

Let's try the Irish side of the project.

You'll find mention of a sewer company from Ireland starting up a North American subsidiary. There's also a 10 villa condo development in Maddox Cove, which is inside the boundaries of St. John's.

Nice.

But that was two years ago.

Perhaps the single biggest result of this deal, signed originally 10 years ago by Brian Tobin and revived by Danny Williams, has been the regular trade missions from one side or the other. Lots of work for hoteliers, car rental companies, airlines, travel agents, that sort of thing. Bugger all else in the way of business deals.

While Danny Williams has a grand and glorious time in the land of his ancestors, other premiers are busily doing the legwork that will ultimately help businesses in our province. The United States is the single largest destination for our exports, over $2.3 billion annually. Ireland doesn't even crack $100 million.

Newfoundland and Labrador doesn't import much from Ireland either. Well, not in comparison with the United Kingdom, from which we get about $105 million in imports annually. We don't have a special partnership with the United Kingdom to strengthen economic ties with one of the world's major powers.

Nope.

They aren't even tackling the UK and Ireland as a regional package. The provincial government is focusing on Ireland alone, apparently.

Given a choice of where to devote his energies in this late winter of 2007, how curious that Danny Williams opted for Waterford instead of Washington, Donegal and Dublin instead of Dallas.

The choice is as revealing as the provincial government's own forecast of a looming and dramatic economic downturn for Newfoundland and Labrador. We'd better hope that Danny snags a leprechaun and bargains for his pot o' gold. If he was successful at that, as far as business and trade is concerned, that's about all the Tobin/Williams experiment would have turned up.

Dinosaur blog

A child's view of the information world, interpreted by Non sequitur, circa 2005.

Fortis expands to British Columbia natural gas

In a deal announced on Monday, St. John's-based Fortis Inc. will acquire the British Columbia natural gas distribution service Terasen Inc. from the American company Kinder Morgan. The deal is reportedly worth $3.7 billion in cash and debt.

Edited extract from the news release:

The natural gas distribution business of Terasen, referred to as Terasen Gas, is one of the largest natural gas distribution utilities in Canada. Terasen Gas is the principal natural gas distribution utility in British Columbia, serving approximately 900,000 customers or 95% of natural gas customers in the province. Terasen Gas owns and operates 44,100 kilometres of natural gas distribution pipelines and 4,300 kilometres of natural gas transmission pipelines. Its service territory includes the populous lower mainland, Vancouver Island, and the southern interior of the province. As of September 30, 2006, Terasen Gas had an aggregate of $3.6 billion of assets, an aggregate rate base approaching $3.0 billion and approximately 1,200 employees. The company is regulated by the British Columbia Utilities Commission.

"These are high-quality utility assets located in a region with strong economic growth," says Stan Marshall, left, president and chief executive officer, Fortis Inc. "Through our FortisBC electric utility operations, we are very familiar with the regulatory environment and energy markets in British Columbia."

"Our expansion into the natural gas distribution business adds a third business segment and doubles the regulated rate base of Fortis to approximately $6.0 billion. The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings per common share," explains Marshall.

Dependence on federal income support: Newfoundland and Labrador

While there is a general understanding that individuals in Newfoundland and Labrador receive significant income support from the federal government, the chart above puts it into a perspective that is nothing short of chilling.

Employment insurance currently accounts for eight percent of typical personal income in the province. That's the highest level in Canada.

While the increase in per capita employment insurance (EI) payments to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians begins to rise noticeably in the mid-1970s, the rate skyrockets after the creation of the 200 mile exclusive economic zone and the consequent expansion of the highly seasonal fish processing industry. That occurred in 1977.

Curiously, as fish stocks depleted, the per capita EI amounts climb dramatically until the imposition of the cod moratorium in 1992.

After a period of decline in the 1990s (exclusive of TAGS and NCARP payments), the rates of employment insurance per capita climbed again in 1999. It continues to climb. This coincides with the end of federal support payments specifically made in relation to the cod moratorium (NCARP/TAGS). It also coincides with a provincial government policy which saw plants shift production to species such as shrimp.


Update:


The same figures, given in constant dollars, compared with the national average.

"...everyone is upset with us, so we must be doing a good job!"

Speaking Points for Max Ruelokke, Chair and CEO, C-NLOPB

NOIA Luncheon, February 21, 2007

[Note: May not be exactly as delivered. Thanks to Max Ruelokke and Sean Kelly for providing these notes.]

• Thanks for the invitation, it feels great to be in this group where we have many shared experiences of helping to grow this industry. I must say, I felt equally at home last month in addressing the offshore workforce on Terra Nova and the Henry Goodrich.

IMPORTANCE OF OIL AND GAS WEEK:

• The C-NLOPB commissioned Corporate Research Associates in autumn 2005 to assess how much people know about the offshore oil and gas industry and about us. Here are some of the things we found out from the survey:

• Actual impact: GDP; 3200 workers directly employed. Perceived impact: Stats from Survey - 61% of people who were surveyed had no idea of the number employed, the majority of those who responded thought it was less than 2,000.

• Actual Impact: Spending since the Hibernia discovery - $ 19 B. Perceived impact: 68% had no idea, of those who did respond, the average estimate was $1.5 B.

• Offshore Industry has many components, all with a role to play:

- NOIA and its impact
- Offshore Workforce
- Operators, individually and via CAPP [Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.]
- Governments
- Finally, C-NLOPB

WHO WE ARE

• 21% of people surveyed felt we were responsible for regulating the O&G industry, compared to 42% for the Federal Government and 36% for the Provincial Government.

• Established in 1985 to administer the Canada-Newfoundland Atlantic Accord Implementation Acts. [Federal and Provincial]


• Key mandates:

Safety
Resource management
Environmental protection
Industrial benefits

• The Board, in many ways, serves all stakeholders in the industry, sometimes satisfying none! A good example of that is the current situation where Government appears to be upset with us and our recent decision, while at the same time we are still in the appeal period of a recent court decision in a case where we were taken to court by HMDC [Hibernia Management and Development Corporation] and Petro-Canada who claimed we were imposing an unfair requirement to spend within the Province on them.

• A former Board member once mused that “.. it seems as though everyone is upset with us, so we must be doing a good job!”

• But seriously, let’s take a look at the Board:

• Seven members: Federal appointees: Hal Stanley, Lorne Spracklin and Herb Clarke; Provincial Appointees: Fred Way, Dr. Joan Whelan, Andy Wells and myself as Chairman and CEO.

• How the Board works: Decisions are made by Board Members, by the Executive, or by either or both of the Chief Safety Officer and the Chief Conservation Officer. Fundamental Decisions involving: Rights Issuance, Extraordinary Powers, Development Plans are subject to the approval of Ministers,

• All the above are based on sound staff work by the Board’s 60 employees, who are really the heart and soul of the Board. They are highly qualified, with 89% holding formal post-secondary degrees or diplomas, with 86% having been educated in Newfoundland and Labrador. More that half of them have professional designations in engineering, geoscience, finance, human resources and public relations. They are highly skilled, dedicated, and respected by their peers in industry. There is a great blend of experience and youth, and Fred Way and I as the two full-time Board members are truly blessed to work with them.

• The basis of all the Board’s decisions is its mandate to manage our offshore resources to ensure that all purposes of the Accord are taken into consideration and a balanced decision reached. Allow me to read these brief purposes:

• (Purposes are on page 1 of the Atlantic Accord Memorandum, a pdf file on our website under “Publications”)

• You can see that keeping these all in balance can be a challenge. For this reason, the Board does not, can not and will not make political decisions. Board members are appointed by Governments to manage our offshore oil and gas resources, not elected to govern. We (or rather, most of us) wouldn’t have it any other way!

• An example of a Board decision which will have a major positive impact on the province is our R&D/E&T guidelines decision. As you will all know, we are managing the exploitation of a fixed, finite, non-renewable resource. How then do we ensure that the positive impact on our Province and Country will be felt long after the resource is depleted?

• The Board considered this and concluded that it would require those who are extracting this resource should make significant investments into research and development and education and training in our province. It was decided that an annual percentage, equal to that expended in Canada by the oil industry generally, as determined by Statistics Canada from industry sources, would be applied as a levy against production operations here. At current production rates and oil prices, this will result in the expenditure of approximately $20 M annually. Several operators challenged this decision in court, but last month the courts decided in our favour. There is still the possibility of an appeal, but we are cautiously optimistic of the outcome.

• These funds will have a long-lasting positive impact on our society, and I would encourage all those who are interested in further details to contact our office and specifically Frank Smyth, our Manager of Industrial Benefits and Regulatory Coordination, who is here today .

• Thank you for your courtesy and attention, and I hope these few remarks have been helpful in explaining who we are, what we do, and how and why we do it. If there are questions I’d be pleased to answer them.

Doing job worth news release

Intergovernmental affairs minister John Ottenheimer issued a news release today to let everyone know he had a bunch of meetings in Ottawa with federal ministers.

Nothing new happened, except that they met.

In polling season, that's enough, apparently, but it sure isn't news.

What an appalling waste of one of this administration's more competent ministers.

Why unions don't work

That got your attention, didn't it?

Well it's either why they don't work or Kathy Dunderdale's google-search aide is now working for the National Union of Public and General Employees [NUPGE].

Check out this piece trying to rally support against the idea of Atlantica, a trade deal aimed at increasing co-operation between the northeastern United States and eastern Canada.

The date on the piece is today.

NUPGE says that the idea is being pushed by the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies. That's true, but others are interested.

NUPGE says that AIMS is headed by Brian Crowley.

Problem.

Not at the moment. Crowley is off in Ottawa giving advice to Stephen Harper. Maybe the NUPGE writer didn't see Brian on the OCTRANSPO route they probably share. Crowley's move was widely reported and is found here, at the AIMS website.

It happened in November, over three months ago.

NUPGE lists the board of directors.

Second problem.

It's out of date. To be fair, NUPGE likely got this information from the AIMS website and that's where the problem rests. AIMS lists Derrick Rowe as chief executive of Fishery Products International, a job he gave up over a year ago.

Third problem?

Well, it's the overall approach. NUPGE's tirade against Atlantica is long on ideology and short on details. AIMS gets slagged, for example, because it has complained about the very large government to private sector ratio in Atlantic Canada. Lots of people do and with good reason: as taxpayers, we all pay for the general inefficiency of the bureaucracy and the burden of carrying around higher costs than we actually need to do the job.

The general rant against free trade that forms the basis of the piece has been around for 20 years. Fewer people accept it as the evidence of free trade mounts. There are ups and downs, depending on whether you are working in the Hershey factory in Smith's Falls or if you're the Mexican worker who is getting a job upgrade.

We could get into a long rant about the need for unions, especially those in eastern Canada, to update their slogan books, but that's for another time. Like the hunter-gatherers' union, FFAW, that stands as both a giant anachronism, a conflict of interest that works against its members best interests, and, as the recent experience with FPI shows, part of the cabal of business and government interests working together - even if inadvertently - to break up Fishery Products International, all the while blaming it on someone else.

In the meantime, take a quick look at NUPGE's little piece. Then go read the stuff at AIMS and make up your mind.

Maybe when you're done, you can give some thought to why people seem happy with international free trade (ok. NUPGE isn't, I know.) but want to grab the nearest pitchfork when someone promotes inter-provincial free trade.

Defining a fair share of oil and gas revenue

Wade Locke's presentation to a Harris Centre public meeting last November is now available through Newfoundland Quarterly as a five page article.

To start with, Locke notes the vagueness of the "fair share" position:

While it is feasible to calculate the level of benefits currently received by the province, especially those flowing to the provincial treasury, and also possible to estimate how those benefits evolve over time as the industry grows and matures, it is not at all obvious to determine with any degree of precision, what would constitute a "fair share" of those benefits from the perspective of Newfoundland and Labrador. Moreover, many individuals arguing for a "fair share" of benefits fail to specify explicitly the benefits benchmark that needs to be surpassed.

That pretty much describes the provincial government's approach: there is a claim but no definition. That's exactly the same way the provincial government approached the idea of principal beneficiary, oil revenues and transfer payments from Ottawa.

Then there is Locke's consideration of the value of timely development:

With all four fields being developed to their potential, provincial revenue from the oil and gas sector would peak at $1.4 billion in 2012, generate more than $1.0 billion to the provincial treasury for another 12 years [beyond that] and yield in excess of $500 million per year for at least another eight years. ...

However, at this point the following caveat is important to bear in mind: these tremendous impacts may never be realized. They are contingent on Hibernia South and the Hebron project proceeding. If these developments do not proceed, then the revenue from the oil and gas industry will fall from $23 billion to $9 billion. In other words, while enhanced prosperity is within our grasp, there is a real risk it may not be realized. Furthermore, this risk is directly affected by decisions that are within the control of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador. [Emphasis added]

That makes it pretty clear: no Hebron and Hibernia South and benefits drop dramatically. Elsewhere in the article, Locke makes it clear that leaving the oil in the ground runs the risk of drastically diminishing benefits compared to what would accrue from timely development.

Locke noted in his presentation that oil revenues account for more than 18% of the provincial government's total annual revenue. However, Locke doesn't point out that if one looks at own source revenues, i.e. the provincial government's direct revenues, not including transfers from Ottawa, offshore revenues account for about 26% of the government's haul.

Locke's presentation was specifically aimed at the "fair share" question. Putting Hebron and Hibernia South in the slings (White Rose expansion may suffer the same fate) has an impact on the province's fair share, as Locke notes.

Those cancellations also have an impact on other economic issues. As noted previously, the provincial government's own economic forecasts put the province into a period of stagnation (near zero growth) or recession for 2008 and 2009. The primary cause of that downturn is the lack of development offshore.

Province forecasts economic slowdown

While you won't hear it mentioned by the Premier, cabinet ministers or the administration's other spokespeople, the provincial government's own economic analysis division is forecasting an economic slowdown in the province over the next two years.

The Economy, 2006, delivered with the budget in the spring of 2006 forecast a shrinkage in the economy in 2008 and 2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) was forecast to shrink by 1.5% each year.

Economic Review 2006, issued at the mid-way point in the current fiscal year, revised the estimates and provided projections for both nominal and real GDP. Both categories are forecast to see either negligible growth of less than one percent or a shrinkage of 1.5%.

Both documents pointed to oil production and mining output, including Voisey's Bay, as the major drivers of the economic growth into 2007.

Voisey's Bay is a deal criticized heavily by the current administration while in opposition.

Background on legislature allowances

It took eight months, but someone finally put together an excellent backgrounder on the House of Assembly remuneration for legislators and the history of their allowances and other indemnities.

Rob Antle has it in Saturday's Telegram.

Insipid sameness, as some pretentious columnist called what's in the Telegram, turns out to be the sort of robust journalism the equally pretentious paper that prints her column just can't seem to produce. Can't produce, no matter how many times its editor claims to be doing just that.

Gimme insipid any day, if the alternative is pretentious blather.

If one article wasn't enough, there's also an excellent article by Antle in the Lifestyles section that describes the circumstances surrounding the changes to the internal economy commission legislation in 2000.

Antle gives us as much detail as we could expect in these two articles and there can be no excuses for people accepting the simplistic version of events tossed out from politicians anymore.

Still, there are four points Antle hasn't tackled in these pieces.

First, there's the curious saga of ejecting the Auditor General from the legislature in 2000. Antle notes "[Danny] Williams, leader of the PC party, was against it [barring the Auditor General from the legislature's accounts], but was not a member of the IEC."

That's true. The Leader of the Opposition is not a member of the commission; nor is the Premier. But in both cases some of the most senior members of the cabinet and the opposition caucus sit on the legislature's executive committee. Their job is to reflect the views of their caucus members and ultimately their respective bosses. It shouldn't matter that Danny didn't sit on the IEC; if he had a grip at all on his caucus he ought to have been able to handle this differently. That's especially the case of point supposedly so central to Williams' pledge of accountability and transparency.

Skip ahead to April 2004 and the Internal Economy Commission allowed the Auditor General to review the legislature's books once again. Williams takes credit for the move, but he wasn't on the commission as Premier any more than he was as Leader Op.

There's much more to this story that hasn't been told. It may never be told, but the version presented, even by Antle, doesn't explain how Williams could triumph at one point - supposedly - despite having failed earlier.

Antle doesn't explain the May 2004 bonus which Williams knew about at the time it was issued and, implicitly sanctioned. He couldn't be powerful at one moment and impotent the next without some better explanation than the one offered so far. Actually there hasn't been an explanation of this local version of the magic, reversing bullet.

Second, Antle notes changes made to the legislature's administration after April 2004. He points to cuts in allowances. Sadly, he doesn't explain how it could be that while members' allowances were cut, overspending on the budget line item that covers those allowances ballooned. According to the government's official, audited financial statements the legislature overspent its allowance line item by a total of almost $1.0 million in FY 2004 and FY 2005. The Auditor General's reports to date have only accounted for about $200,000 of that amount.

Third, Antle says that "Auditors found a 'significant spike' in overspending after the decision to bar them in 2000." The Auditor General may claim there was a spike in that year, but the Public Accounts - audited by John Noseworthy's staff and that of his predecessor Beth Marshall - showed a consistent pattern of overspending in the allowances line item from 1998 to 2005.

As the red line shows in the table above, the spike in spending occurred before the AG was barred, i.e. in FY 1999, tamped down for two fiscal years - after the AG was blocked - and then started its upward trend in 2003. That upward trend continued in 2004 and grew higher in 2005 in plain view of the Auditor General.

The yellow line in the table above represents the amounts identified by the Auditor General. His numbers may confirm his own theory, but the facts contained in the Public Accounts say something completely different. Sometimes people see what they look for, rather than what was. The "what was" may raise other questions that some would find uncomfortable.

The fourth point Antle hasn't touched is about the comptroller general. The version of events offered by both the current administration and the Auditor General is that the government's chief financial officer could not see what was going on in the legislature since the claims his office received in order to generate payments did not contain receipts.

This defies even a layman's reading of the Financial Administration Act, let alone beggar's the belief of anyone even passingly familiar with how things work inside Confederation Building's East Block.

Simply put, there's no way to run over a line item in the budget - especially by the $3.2 million total shown in the Public Accounts - without the guy who writes the cheques knowing about it. If he knew, then others knew or ought to have known.

Antle's last comment is well taken: "To appreciate why those changes are necessary, it’s important to remember how they were done in the past."

The difficulty is that even after his yeoman service in two fine articles, there are still crucial pieces of information missing.

It would seem that the only way to get to the bottom of the whole matter is through a properly constituted public inquiry.

Egyptian blogger jailed

From Associated Press:

ALEXANDRIA, Egypt, Feb. 22 -- An Egyptian blogger was convicted Thursday and sentenced to four years in prison for insulting Islam and Egypt's president, sending a chill through fellow Internet writers who fear a government crackdown.

Abdel Kareem Nabil, a 22-year-old former student at Egypt's Al-Azhar University, had been a vocal secularist and sharp critic of conservative Muslims in his blog. He often lashed out at Al-Azhar -- the most prominent religious centre in Sunni Islam -- calling it "the university of terrorism" and accusing it of encouraging extremism.

Egyptian blogger Abdel Kareem Nabil, 22, centre, is escorted by police officers from a police van and towards a court house in Alexandria, Egypt Thursday, Feb. 22, 2007. The Egyptian blogger was convicted of insulting Islam and President Hosni Mubarak and sentenced to four years in prison on Thursday in Egypt's first prosecution of a blogger. (AP Photo)

Roger Grimes and the Lower Churchill

1. From The Independent, a story buried in the print edition last week but given prominence on the website.

Former premier Roger Grimes says when -- or if -- Danny Williams signs a deal to develop the lower Churchill, it will be "almost identical" to the one Grimes nearly signed with Quebec in 2002. He says the project remains undeveloped because of political games played by Danny Williams' administration.

"My assessment of it, quite frankly, is this: if Danny Williams ever does a lower Churchill deal," Grimes tells The Independent, "he'll do the deal I had on the table, or very close to it, because it is the only one that makes any economic sense."

There's another story this week featuring an interview with Dean MacDonald. It won't be online until Wednesday, but as soon as your humble e-scribbler can grab a copy, there'll be a post.

2. As a backdrop to all this, read for yourself the draft agreement Roger, Dean and Danny are talking about.

Combat medicine

From CBC Newfoundland and Labrador, this profile of Lieutenant Commander Bob Farrell, a Canadian Forces medical officer recently returned from a tour in Afghanistan. [Note: ram file]