Globe: change for change sake, despite fear over country

Odd that the Globe editors today opt for change in the coming election despite acknowledging the country is better off today than when Liberals took power in 1993.

Odd they endorse change given this paragraph in the election editorial today:

It is hard to endorse him [Stephen Harper] and his party unreservedly. We worry about his seeming indifference to the need for a strong central government in a country so replete with runaway centrifugal forces. We worry about him teaming up with the Bloc Québécois to weaken the federal government's tax-raising capacity and its advocacy of national programs. We worry that he might have to strike retrograde compromises with social conservatives in the party's midst. We worry that he may prove heavy-handed in wielding the considerable powers of a prime minister.

To that might be added the very real fear that the Conservative Plan is actually not a plan at all. It is merely the tissue paper cover over the real plan that will only be seen once the conservatives are in power. Consider the number of twists and turns we have seen in the conservative "Plan" already, all designed to tweak the wording to match with what the right number of voters are looking for.

The vote is what counts; the policy comes after, and only after the Consdervatives have four years to do as they wish from a comofrtable majority position.

Once safely seated at 24 Sussex, likely with a strong majority by current polling numbers, the Conservatives will discover the country's finacial picture is now much bleaker than originally forecast.

An outside firm will audit the books and - predictably - declare the Liberals to be manipulaters - do the work.

Expect to see someone like Mr. Gourley of PriceClubWaterHouseCoopers, well known to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians for his mockery of accounting integrity two years ago, brought forward to twist and distort the numbers to make the situation look much worse than it appeared. To produce the report the government asked for saying what it wanted said.

And suddenly there will be no base in Goose bay. No troops for Trenton.

No money for child care.

Suddenly the focus will shift to the $30 billion in reallocations.

Call them program cuts, to be more accurate.

And the tax cuts will carry forward since they benefit the wealthy, in any event. The ghost of Mike harris and the mess of Ontario after his tenure is long forgotten, as is the mess left by the last Conservative government under Brian Mulroney.

The Globe editorialists try to erase their logical contradictions by trusting in the voters. That would be fine if party policy, such as the Conservative one, was not a moveable feast of pork and verbiage. A voter might well chose today based on one thing only to find that in truth, the policy actually had changed to something else. Stephen Harper cannot be held to account since he has said dofferent things at different times, all within the same election.

It's one thing to campaign from the left and govern from the right when you are basically somewhere in the middle anyways.

But when you campaign from the far left and you are really from the far right, perhaps the results won't be so pleasant.

Maybe, just maybe, the people who wish so desperately for a change, people who can recall the folly of Bob Rae and Mike Harris, these same people should be careful what they wish for.

Harper would cut $30 billion in programs and services

Go to the Conservative's fiscal plan.

Flip to the second last page.

Note the figures:

$6.8 billion in "re-allocation" and another $22.5 billion for "moderating spending" in government departments, agencies, and on grants and contributions.

That's almost $30 billion in program cuts that don't appear to be explained anywhere in the Conservative Plan.

Take a look at the Conservative Plan document itself and you might find a hint in the vague wording.

Economic development organizations like the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency will maintain their current funding levels.

Hmmm.

Maintain current levels.

That sounds like "freeze at current levels".

No increases.

With inflation, that means that in five years time, ACOA would actually have less money to spend on diversifying the economy in Atlantic Canada than it has now.

That's a program cut.

That's also a significant kick to the many successful efforts at economic development that have taken place since ACOA was created under Brian Mulroney.

But hey, Steve's gotta find $30 freakin' billion to cut from somewhere.

Unfit to govern: Confusion in Connie Camp Continues

As if shagging up the costs of the plan wasn't bad enough.

As if the constantly changing the Party position on custodial management wasn't embarrassing.

Someone in the Connie bunker finally checked some facts on Canada's overseas spy agency.

The comment buried in a news release issued a week ago talked about "expanding" something called the Canadian Foreign Intelligence Agency.

The Bond Papers picked it up, reported it and a week later Canadian Press had more details:

There currently is no overseas spy agency to "expand".

Today's Conservative Plan refers to "creating" an overseas spy agency.

To paraphrase Bob Fife: if you don't know that Canada doesn't have an overseas spy agency when you make an announcement about expanding it, then that raises questions about your fitness to govern.

Unfit to govern: Harper dumps Hearn on custodial management

Contrary what Loyola Hearn wanted in 2004 and what he would have everyone believe even today, Stephen Harper is now pledging to "[e]xtend the two hundred mile limit to the edge of the Continental Shelf, the nose and tail of the Grand Banks, and the Flemish Cap in the North Atlantic and be prepared to exercise Canadian custodial management over this area."

That isn't what he said a mere five weeks ago.

At a news conference held at Petty Harbour, assisted by talk show maven and Conservative operative Sue (on the advance bus, no less), and flanked by incumbent Connies Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn, Harper announced that a Conservative government would move immediately to announce custodial management of the Nose and Tail of the Grand Banks and fully take custodial management of these international waters within five years.

The Bond Papers has already documented the weakening of Harper's commitment over the course of a few weeks. Check the "Harper backpedals" posts.

Harper's announcement today is exactly the same as current government policy. The Government of Canada is already pursuing the legal means to lay claim to the continental shelf outside the 200 mile economic zone, in a process set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The process began in 2003 when Canada finally signed the UNCLOS treaty, triggering an eight year timeline that will end in 2011.

The continued weakening of the Conservative commitment on custodial management, a major element in the local Connie candidate's campaign is a sign Loyola Hearn has no influence on Conservative Party fisheries policy.

Hearn's campaign brochure features the custodial management issue prominently:

Fisheries: Loyola has led the charge in Ottawa to rebuild our fisheries.

"Finally, it's agreed by political leaders that custodial management of fish stocks outside 200 miles by Canada is the only possible way we can save our rural population. We have to thank MP Loyola Hearn for his persistence and tenacity in having a supporting resolution recorded in the House of Commons. Without his dedication, it never would have passed."

Gus Etchegary, Respected Fisheries Advocate

Trevor Taylor, the former provincial fisheries minister described that motion very well in early 2004:

"The Hon. Trevor Taylor: Mr. Speaker, I rise today to congratulate Mr. Loyola Hearn, the Member of Parliament for St. John'’s West -

Some honourable members: Hear, hear!

Mr. Taylor: - on the successful passing of his private members'’ motion on custodial management in the House of Commons last evening. Motion 136 calls on the Government of Canada to immediately extend custodial management over the Nose and Tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish Cap.

Mr. Hearn is to be commended for his efforts. He has worked tirelessly on the issue of foreign overfishing, including his dedicated work with the Standing Committee on Fisheries and Oceans."

Hmmm. We went from "immediately" to "will no hesitate" to "move towards" to now, not doing it at all except what is already happening.

To paraphrase Bob Fife: if you can't stick to a simple policy over the course of five weeks, that raises questions about your fitness to govern.

Omnifacts poll: Libs ahead in Atlantic

The number of undecided voters has risen during the campaign in Atlantic Canada, but the Liberals are ahead in three provinces and neck and neck with the Conservatives in New Brunswick. That's the result of a poll released today by Omnifacts Bristol.

Across Atlantic Canada, the results are (decideds only):

LPC 45%
CPC 37%
NDP 16%
OTH 02%

Undecideds are up 10 points to 27% from a survey completed by Omnifacts at the start of the campaign. The survey is concerned accurate to within 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, Liberals are at 48%, Conservatives at 40% and New Democrats at 12%. Pump those numbers into the Hill and Knowlton WunderPrediktor and the seat count stays the same as it is now. Factor in the undecideds, then bear in kind Liberals held 50% of the vote across the region at the start of the campaign and things look interesting. The election is far from over.

Paul Martin is considered the best choice for prime minister by 46% of decided respondents, with Stephen Harper at 32% and Jack Layton at 12%.

There is a gender gap in the PM picks. "Among decided female voters, 50% say Mr. Martin would make the best prime minister, compared to 42% of decided male voters. Only 29% of decided female voters support Mr. Harper in this category, compared to 35% of decided male voters."

A recent poll conducted for NTV by Telelink showed that in Newfoundland and Labrador, Liberals are at 46.4%, Conservatives at 40.5%, NDP at 11.4% and the Greens with 1.7%. Margin of error is 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Undecided is at 39%.

Unfit to govern: Costing confusion on Connie Plan leaves media bewildered

Check Bob Fife's debrief on the Conservative newser and media briefing over at CTV.ca.

As Fife put it, the confusion was such today that: "[w]hen you can't explain that it adds up immediately, it raises questions about their [the Conservatives] whole ability to be able to govern."

The Conservatives will outspend the New Democrats in a combination of tax cuts and spending that adds up to $75 billion dollars. After much too and fro - and apparently some confuddled explanations - the figure was revised to $60 billion. In between the number hit $67 billion and then the Conservatives apparently announced more spending.

This comes from something called "reallocation", which apparently means there will be some sort of "slow down" in spending for Human Resources Canada and Industry Canada. There is also an expectation of growth in the economy resulting from tax cuts.

Decipher that doublespeak about slowing things down in at least two departments and you can see the words "program cuts". Something has to go to make room for other things. The question will be what is set to be killed off.

There was some initial confusion over the numbers. Before the formal announcement of the platform, journalists were given a first look at the costing in a media lockup.

From CTV.ca:

CTV's Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife said it took puzzled Tory officials a long time to come to an agreement over the total net cost.

"It turns out that total promises for the Conservative party adds up to $75 billion. When there is reallocation we are told it is $60.7 billion," said Fife.

He added: "It took a combination of effort by everybody, the media and the Tory officials, to get to this $75 billion -- and then some subtraction and fooling around until we finally got to, what they say, is the accurate figure of $60.7 billion."

From the clip:

Fife: Well, they finally released their total platform document and they tried to give Tuesday costing figures but I have to say there was a lot of confusion, a lot of voodoo economics this morning as we tried to figure out where the Conservative platform was going in terms of cost.

For a long period of time they could not add up the figures.

Reporters as you know, we are not good at mathematics but one of my colleagues were saying that they were trying to do Liberal math compared to Conservative math and my friend Tom Clark says it is only math can you please add it up for us.

It turns out that their total promises for the Conservative Party adds up to $75 billion. When there is reallocation we are told it is $60.7 billion. But this took about an hour or so of discussions and adding up to get to this figure of about $67 billion. Total tax measures are about 44.9 billion. Other spending initiatives I don't want to go there because it was so confusing even Monte Solberg the conservative finance critic did not explain that ...

It is a slip-up. I mean, this is a very important part of the Conservative government's [sic] platform. They have done a very good job from day one, issue-driven, a policy a day, well thought out, generally well thought-out policies, populous policies, consumer-driven policies that seem to have struck a chord with Canadians.

When you put it together you want to be able to tell the Canadians look, this plan adds up. When you can't explain that it adds up immediately, it raises questions about their whole ability to be able to govern. And I mean, that is the questions that he was getting in the room today is we wanted to know, tell us how much it will cost. How does it add up when they weren't able to do that and then they started to give conflicting numbers, a lot of head-scratching which the journalists...

Ravi: What about Monte Solberg, was in in command of the facts there? He being the finance transit critic.

Fife: Monte Solberg is a good guy. I would not give him high grades for his performance today.

Release the Zeisman form

British Columbia Conservative spokesperson Colin Metcalfe [<-- requires RealPlayer] told CBC in British Columbia that Derek Zeisman filled out a form as part of the nomination process in which he was supposed to disclose relevant information.

If Zeisman failed to disclose, then the Conservatives can simply make the completed form public. Any sensitive information can be blanked out in a noticeable way. It's a fairly simple thing.

Of course Metcalfe couldn't explain how this guy could appear in court several times and no one noticed.

No one.

I am not making this up.

Then there's Zeisman, Day Three of Connie spin

The Vancouver Province is quoting Derek Zeisman as saying that the federal Conservative party knew all about the "administrative charges" he faces.

"Administrative charges". That's the new Conservative-speak word for allegedly trying to smuggle a Mercedes-Benz and 112 bottles of liquor across the border. The maximum penalty on conviction for these "administrative" infractions, which will be heard in British Columbia Provincial Court, could be a fine of up to $50, 000 and up to six months in jail.

Zeisman said: "The Conservative Party is aware of this [the charges]."

Now that's interesting. I was suspicious of the Conservative position from the get-go. It would be standard procedure for any political party, let alone the party of Law & Order [every night, on some channel and still on NBC] to do a background check on prospective candidates.

Heck I think these guys likely have their own CPIC account. That's the nationwide police criminal database.

(Left: Conservative Party background checker Ralph Wiggum, shortly before his retirement as Springfield chief of police.)

But to listen to Stephen Harper, he is surrounded by by people who didn't see fit to ask even the simplest of simple questions: are you bondable? Or maybe even: is there anything that might pop up in the media about you that might be a problem?

Harper didn't even ask the checkers those simple questions.

Compare that Jean Boyle-like shifting of responsibility to the way Prime Minister Paul Martin has handled the "military ad" thing. One pushes it away. One steps up to the plate. Hmmm.

Both Zeisman and Conservative Party campaign chair John Reynolds used almost identical phrases, referring to "administrative procedures" or "administrative charges" when talking about the matter.

That was when the Conservatives were standing behind their man fully.

The other thing you'll learn from the Province is that the former incumbent, Zeisman's old boss, won the seat by only 780 votes.

It was curious why the Conservatives didn't just forfeit the seat by having Zeisman resign for all his alleged and real failings. (Alleged = smuggling; real = failure to disclose relevant information]

Now we know:

They want every vote they can count on. This seat is a potential squeeker and they want to make sure it squeeks Conservative.

It all bobs to the surface

Call them floaters.

The stuff you'd like to go away but just won't sink. Thanks to Canadian Press and the story at canoe.ca for helping things bob to the surface.

Like Stephen Harper and Kyoto. He admitted in Halifax yesterday that under a Harper government, Kyoto: up the chimney faster than carbon dioxide emissions from a coke plant.

Like Jack Layton. Turns out that Jack had hernia surgery at a private clinic in the 1990s.

Like Stevie again and missile defence. Canadians said no. Harper would wait for a formal invitation before doing something. The wording suggests that the idea could be turned over to a free vote. Take a close look at the wording of the quote though and you'd think the option of turning the proposal over to a free vote in the Commons is the bit that hinges on it being in the national interest.

Incidentally, since when is a matter of national defence not in the national interest?

Sounds odd.

A bit like saying the provinces jurisdiction in international affairs must be recognized.

Or that Canada has had a handgun ban for decades and it's working just fine.

The Orchestra pit theory of political news coverage

This is as good a time as any to remind people of the Orchestra Pit Theory of political communications.

Credit for coming up with the little anecdote to illustrate the point goes to Roger Ailes, who these days heads up Fox News but in a previous life was a Republican Party communications whiz.

Basically, if there are two politicians on stage, one announces a cure for cancer and one falls into the orchestra pit, the guy in the pit will get the coverage.

There are a couple of versions of this going around. google and you'll find one. James Carville and Paul Begalla tell a slightly different version of it in their 2002 book Buck up, suck up and come back after you foul up.

As Carville and Begalla put it, news media love "to cover only four things in politics: scandals, gaffes, polls and attacks. Three of them are bad. So if you want to get coverage go on the offensive and stay there."

Of course, it should go without saying that it all depends on who you at aiming at in the offensive. Candidates normally aim at their opponent and as long as the attacks are factual, everything is just fine.

There will be people who bleat, complain and pontificate, but political campaigns are a winner-take-all affair.

After all, people have a right to see the sharp lines between candidates. Voters are choosing people to run our country, to make decisions that will affect each and every one of us on a daily basis. The choices aren't the same as which brand of toothpaste to buy. People deserve the chance to see the sharp lines between candidates and heaven knows there are sharp lines out there among all the contenders.

For some reason, this election has largely been about erasing the distinctions among the parties. Fundamentally, that's wrong.

[Fundamentally it's wrong for a crowd to sanctimoniously condemn attack ads and then run an entire campaign of their own around attacks.

But I digress.]

With all that in mind, have a look around and see if you can find genuine distinctions between candidates or among parties. There aren't as many as you'd think on major policy issues. In fact, it is almost scary the extent to which Conservatives are taking up New Democrat turf of supposedly detesting Americans, New Democrats want to get tough on crime and Liberals are the guys preaching fiscal responsibility, more cash for health care and people are pounding them.

Sharpening up the distinctions at election serves a useful purpose beyond giving political junkies something to blog about.

Planning a campaign that aims to differentiate a party from its rivals clears the political skulls. It sets a clear goal that the party can shoot for.

And voters would be able to hold political candidates and political parties genuinely accountable for things they would actually be able to do.

However, when campaigns are designed to blur distinctions, or push you to vote against something, everyone is getting shafted. We don't need proportional representation, or a reformed senate to fix elections.

We need political parties to actually stand for something different.

Consistently.

Harper now backs ACOA

Stephen Harper has decided that if he gets to 24 Sussex in a few weeks, he'll keep the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, an organization he vowed to get rid of just last year.

h/t to Andrew Coyne.

Harper shifts position, temporarily, on accused candidate

UPDATE BELOW

What a difference the light of day makes.

A difference, alright, just not much of a difference.

On Wednesday, the Conservatives were standing behind Derek Zeisman.

On Thursday, after the case of the candidate accused of smuggling gained national attention, Conservative boss Stephen Harper has announced that Zeisman will still carry the Conservative banner in the federal election but he just won't be able to sit in a Conservative caucus if elected, at least until the court case is resolved. [Corrected to reflect the details of the Canada Elections Act, as pointed out by a more-knowledgeable reader.]

Zeisman's bio has been removed from Conservative.ca, but he will apparently still be the official Conservative candidate on the ballot.

While he has not been convicted, Zeisman failed to disclose the charges against him to Harper and the federal Conservative Party didn't check Zeisman's credentials. When asked about it, Harper sloughed responsibility for the problem onto other people for failing to complete the appropriate checks, despite being the person ultimately responsible for approving candidates.

Compare Harper's position on his own responsibilities to the Conservative position on ministerial accountability. Harper made his initial comments in front of a Conservative backdrop featuring the word "accountability".

Update: The correction above notes that apparently the Conservatives can't punt the guy and block him from carrying the party banner. Fair enough.

Two things still apply:

1. This should have been caught by the approvals process. Harper's attempt to push the responsibility for this situation to the candidate and to unnamed officials of the party isn't good enough to meet the standards of accountability to be expected here.

2. Why was the first response to back the guy up and downplay the charges because they weren't under the Criminal Code?

Zeisman should have been strongly encouraged to resign from the ballot. Period.

Of course, given the guy's background, Harper can count on his vote if he gets elected, regardless of where in the House he sits.

Outside of caucus isn't much of a change.

Connie campaign chair sets the bar low

These comments from Connie campaign chair John Reynolds may give a sense of the high standards of integrity we can expect from a Conservative government.

Speaking of Derek Zeisman's charges for attempting to smuggle a car and 112 bottles of liquor across the border, Reynold's said that even if Zeisman were convicted "it's not a criminal offence."

So breaking the law is ok, as long as it isn't a violation of the Criminal Code.

Reynold's just gave us the sense of the ethical standards a Harper government would apply.

Talking about change isn't good enough, John.

Connies to grab more taxes from 200, 000 Newfoundlanders and Labradorians

According to David Cochrane of CBC Radio news, the Conservatives plans to raise taxes and lower basic personal exemptions will see more than 200, 000 Newfoundland and Labradorians will be seeing tax increases this year. That's two thirds of the province's workforce, if memory serves

The Conservatives will reverse Liberal tax cuts that took affect this year for those in the lowest income brackets.

Local Conservative candidates Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn voted against a tax cut last year and will now support a tax increase. They claim a cut to the GST is just as good or better.

The Harper GST cut will shave a maximum of two cents off a large double double cup of coffee. It would take tens of thousands of cups of coffee annually to save the $400 the Conservatives claimed an average family would save from the cut.

Great visuals, Steve

Yep, right there in front of a big backdrop with the word "Accountability" plastered on it:

Stephen Harper, defending the Conservatives for running as a candidate someone who is charged with smuggling a Mercedes and a huge quantity of liquor across the border, by saying "I depend on other people to do stuff like background checks for me."

The last thing a leader does is sluff the blame onto someone else, especially when it's your signature at the bottom of the candidate's nomination paperwork, Steve.

Best line from accused smuggler and Connie candidate Derek Zeisman's official bio:

"In his capacity as a foreign service officer with the Canadian Diplomatic Corps, Derek served as a policy analyst on issues relating to the Canadian-US. border."

Zeisman contributed an essay somewhere along the line on what he would do as prime minister. Among his proposals:

- abolish the Charter of Rights and Freedoms - "While, in theory, a liberal and democratic concept, the Charter actually flies in the face of every democratic virtue cherished by Canadians.";

- abolish all taxes on corporations, industries and business;

- implement a user-pay approach to infrastructure spending;

- "explore" a North American monetary union (single currency);

- annex the Turks and Caicos (what is it with Connies and Caribbean islands?)

- "run-off" elections, involving two voting days for each of the 308 seats in the Commons;

- a senate appointed by provincial premiers, based on party standings in the provincial legislature at the time of appointment.

Meanwhile, Berk doesn't have anything on this story that led CTV's nation news Wednesday night. Nope. He's leading with a story that Susan Murray said the word "bullshit" live on air during an interview...and oh yes...Angelina Jolie is having Brad's baby.

Bourque Newswatch: Bigger. Bolder. Better.

Thanks for the free air time

How much news time has been devoted to the Liberal Party's most recent television commercials?

Measure it in hours.

Bourque Berk teed off on the Liberal's John Duffy and praised Mike Duffy for standing up to the Liberals before a controversial spot went to air. Then the Puffster aired the thing, just like CBC did on national radio news today.

Smart communications people know how to multiply the impact of their efforts by picking up tons of free/earned media. Nothing like dropping an ad and then pulling it back to stir a controversy and get to talk even more about the veracity of the ad campaign that just got covered, for free, as part of the news.

Thanks for the free air time ladies and gentlemen.

And thanks, Berk. Either you are the second most successful Liberal mole in history or you are a lot less media savvy than you claim.

and to that certain long-time Liberal Eastern mole in the Connie camp:

John has a long moustache.

The chair is against the door.

You know what to do next.

*Wink* *Wink*

[Note: From Andrew's link below, I realised he didn't get it that I was referring to the Liberal mole running part of the Connie campaign. He is likely the most successful one in history, having served longer than the Cambridge ring served the Moscow cause. Hence, the clarified reference to the Liberal mole. We don't need an extra click on the conference calls. Our mole has his own dial-in code.]

Update:

Thanks for the traffic, Andrew Coyne.

Of course, it's a given that Conservative and New Democrat supporters will think the entire Liberal ad campaign at this point is "desperate" or "false" or whatever else.

Sorry to disappoint you, my Con and Dipper friends, but you aren't the target audience.

Think about it this way.

Front page of the Globe today: Full colour panels of the spots, other than the military one, all featuring great quotes. Front page. Starting above the fold. Across the country.

Then there's Jason Kenney's newser today in which he talks about "the most vicious, baseless attack ad that our politics has ever seen."

I guess Kenney's hyperbole would be creditable were it not for the genuinely baseless and debased attacks mounted by the Conservatives against Jean Chretien in 1993 and the Harper attack on Paul Martin as a child molester from last year. The Conservatives withdrew the Chretien smear "eventually" as CTV reports and last time I checked, the Conservatives spent a lot of time deciding whether or not the child molester thing was good or bad. Even Mr. Harper himself seemed to stand behind it.

Then, of course, there's the orchestrated campaign to label Belinda Stronach a "whore".

Or, the entire Conservative campaign this time around built around a deliberate misrepresentation of the Gomery Report.

Compare that to what happened in the last 24 hours or so.

The real problem here might be that, with the exception of the military spot, the rest are all genuine Stephen Harper quotes. If they weren't likely to have an effect, the entire Conservative election machine wouldn't be spewing venom and spittle over them.

In 1993, the public rejected the Conservatives genuinely desperate efforts to cling to power. They didn't need to be told what to think.

Just relax guys and take a breath: We'll know in a couple of days whether or not the ads worked.

Harper's CIA: CP and the Sun catch up

From the Toronto Sun today, a story on the Harper plan for a Canadian overseas spy agency, covered here days ago.

Bond Papers readers heard all about it last Friday.

Canadian Press missed a key point though: rather than expand an existing service as the Harper backgrounder stated, a Conservative government would have to create one.

They also never asked why the whole issue was buried at the tail end of a backgrounder to a media event largely devoted to exploiting the gun violence in Toronto.

Connies adrift on Atlantic - updated

Check out the Conservative television spot aimed at what they label as "Atlantic".

Then listen to the fake presenter talking about Stephen Harper's connections to the "Martimes", as if the two were the same thing. Then there's a switch by Harper to talking about Atlantic Canadians. Mixing the two is a habit for Canadians not familiar with the places east of Cornwall, Ontario. Maritimes is a term that predates Confederation in 1949.

Then the guy who talked about a culture of dependence in Atlantic spouts a new message: a positive one about wanting to help Atlantic Canadians.

or was it Maritimers?

To put this in perspective for people not from Atlantic Canada, lumping Newfoundlanders and Labradorians in with people from Nova Scotia is like saying that everything from the Ontario border to British Columbia is "the West": a big, homogeneous mass without specific issues and different cultures within each province.

It's like listening to people not from Atlantic Canada talking about driving through all four provinces in a day.

Take a map of Atlantic Canada.

Place the easternmost tip, at St. John's, on the Ontario-Manitoba border.

Where does the western tip (Edmundston, New Brunswick) wind up?

Vancouver.

If you get the geography or the names wrong, odds are good you don't fundamentally appreciate very much else, either.

Update:

A sharp-reader took issue with my distance experiement.

Fair enough.

The experiment described above was one used some time ago to impress upon people the size of Atlantic Canada. It's a long-standing local joke the number of people who think they can drive around easily, as I said. Sort of like a European friend of mine who, on coming to Canada, figured we could pop down on the weekend to California. By car. When you have never lived more that 150 miles from the ocean, big is a concept that is a little hard to fathom.

So, I hauled out the atlas and worked it out. East-West the distance goes from the Man/On border to just about Calgary, give or take a bit. It's the north-south distance from the northern tip of Labrador to Cape Sable that stretched on a map far enough to hit Vancouver, give a take a few miles.

The point of the exercise?

Atlantic Canada is a physically large place and within that there are differences of culture, geography and everything else as well as four distinct provinces. It's just as diverse as anywhere else in Canada.

If you go back to the Harper spot, let's take a look at the messages. Harper is asked about his deep roots in "the Maritimes". He talks about how his father had to leave to find opportunity elsewhere, like so many from his generation.

Then he bridges out to a statement that he believes the region should have control of its own resources and that "made in Ottawa solutions are not the answer".

To put it bluntly, this little spot is designed to do two things. First of all, the Conservatives are trying to get past the culture of defeat comment that has dogged Harper since he first made it. He wanted to leave the impression he was fully aware of the region through his father's family. Second of all, the spot is designed to deal with what is perceived to be a common regional attitude.

Unfortunately, what we have here is a caricature - a perception of Atlantic Canada or the Maritimes being the same. And the solution he talks about is an equally simplistic caricature. The "region", actually each of the four provinces, controls its own resources already. There are no "made-in Ottawa" solutions.

At no point, does Harper mention anything specific that a Conservative government might do to deal with this "problem".

Immediately above the "Atlantic" spot on the CPC website is one targeted specifically at British Columbia. That's a telling part of the Conservative approach in this spot - four provinces get lumped together as being somehow as homogeneous in attitudes and opinions as British Columbia. Atlantic Canadian or Maritimer is the identity for local people in the same way that people from the other coast would call themselves British Columbians.

But here's the thing: the sense of identity implicit in the spot is wrong. It comes from people who are not from here. It's a convenient way to describe people in the same wrong-headed way as we sometimes see all people west of described as "westerners" or, indeed of describing all people in the centre of the country as Ontarians.

However, those convenient labels miss so much that is important.

Like I said, get the name wrong and you are likely to get a lot more wrong as well.

Poll-er magic

Take a look at results from an NTV/Telelink poll in Newfoundland and Labrador and the national race looks like a re-run of the same results from last time.

Provincially, Liberals are at 46.4%, Conservatives at 40.5%, NDP at 11.4% and the Greens with 1.7%. Margin of error is 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Undecided is at 39%.

Flip those numbers through the Hill and Knowlton predictor and the seats stay the same as they are now, with five Liberals and two Conservatives.

On a riding by riding basis, the results are harder to assess, since the margin of error climbs to a little over 8%.

Allowing for that margin of error though, the three seats on the Avalon peninsula are all still in play. In the two seats on the northeast, both Conservative incumbents are not so far ahead that they can be comfortable. In Avalon, where incumbent Liberal John Efford is not running, NTV is reporting the Conservative slightly ahead of Liberal Bill Morrow .

The choice between the past and the future

Elections are about choices.

At no time in recent history have the choices for voters in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and St. John's East as clear as they are in this election.

The two ridings embody not only the current booming oil economy in Newfoundland and Labrador, but also the face of the modern province and its people.

The days of voting for your grandfather's political choice have long been dead across this province, but nowhere more than in the northeast Avalon. True, the ridings, in their old configuration have been Tory (and lately Conservative) almost continuously since Confederation (1949).

The last federal election proved just exactly how much times have changed.

If one looks at Elections Canada vote transpostions, one can see that in the current configuration, the majority of voters in the ridings have traditionally voted Progressive Conservative.

Loyola Hearn believes he had a rough ride last time because public servants were upset with Danny Williams. Nonsense. Mr. Hearn lost 15% of his core vote last time because local Progressive Conservatives could not bring themselves to vote for Stephen Harper and, in Mr. Hearn's case the man who helped Mr. Harper erase the Progressive Conservative Party and its values from the national landscape.

As if that were not enough, earlier this year Mr. Hearn's slavish devotion to his new leader placed him in the most hideous of predicaments. Having lambasted John Efford for supposedly putting Party before province, Mr. Hearn did exactly the same thing. Local Progressive Conservatives, genuine centre-right or even centre-left in their political beliefs, openly expressed their disapproval.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the Hearn campaign and that of his Conservative partner, Norm Doyle. They are desperately trying to tell us that all is well in the local federal Conservative campaigns. They proudly display the pictures and print the quotes from a handful of provincial politicians. Some of the quotes are so out of whack with reality as to be laughable and yet they are presented with the straightest of straight faces. No matter how much they repeat the message, telling us that it is so does not make it so.

There is no small irony either that Mr. Hearn, in particular has taken to presenting himself as someone who will fight for Newfoundland and Labrador. John Efford used to talk of himself like that too. There is no surprise since, despite their being in different political parties, both men are as alike as alike can be. They are relentlessly partisan, were elected to the provincial legislature at the same point in history and, as their public pronouncements would show, devoted to the ideas that were in vogue 20 years ago.

They talk of grievances that are long since past. Their solutions are also from the past. Joint management of the fishery? Sharing decisions about fisheries between two sets of politicians may have made sense when Loyola Hearn first sat in the House of Assembly a quarter century ago. But the fishery of tomorrow cannot be built by continuing to do exactly what we have done in the past, time and again, without success.

Custodial management? That too is an artifact from a bygone era. Ownership of resources? That battle was fought - and won - when both Hearn and Doyle sat in Brian Peckford's cabinet. What else do Hearn and Doyle talk about besides old ideas? Precious little, save what is in the current Harper playbook.

Compare that to the two Liberal candidates or the two New Democrats in the northeast Avalon. In these four we have men and women who represent a new generation of political leaders. Any of them would be creditable members of the national parliament. Take Hearn and Doyle from the choices and one is left in a quandary.

Sadly, not all can make it. What works against both Mike Keough and Peg Norman is not the virtue of their party platforms or their personal qualities and qualifications. What works against them as a political choice is that their party cannot form a government. Their leader, Jack Layton, has set his sights on being the third party in the Commons. Had the New Democrat campaign aimed higher, then voters in the northeast Avalon would have a harder choice.

Put Hearn and Doyle back into the picture and the choice sharpens. Put Hearn and Doyle back and we see the approaches to politics and our society that have been tried and tried and failed and failed.

Put Hearn and Doyle back in the picture and we see the choice between what we have experienced and to which we do not wish to return and the chance to do something different.

We have the choice between past and future.

Siobhan Coady and Paul Antle represent the modern Newfoundland and Labrador. They are both accomplished in their professions. Both own businesses, Antle in environmental services and Coady in both the fishery and in genetic research. They have extensive volunteer backgrounds and involvement in local and national conservation, community service and business organizations. They have represented our province and our country both nationally and internationally; Antle as a delegate to the Johannesberg environmental conference and Coady as chair of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

They both value financial responsibility balanced with social responsibility - the hallmarks of the majority of voters in St. John's East and St. John's South-Mount Pearl. They do not say things merely because words can be convenient disguises. They value diversity of opinion and people. They are not urban or rural, townie or baymen - those are labels that simply don't apply anymore. They are as comfortable in Ottawa and Toronto, New York and London as they are in Pouch Cove and Mount Pearl.

Neither shrinks from a challenge.

Coady, in particular, worked tirelessly last year on the offshore deal. Unlike some who attended no meetings that mattered, Coady met the Prime Minister or spoke with him on several occasions including before his visit here in June 2004. She had no difficulty making her position plain and in persuading the Prime Minister to state his position on the offshore unequivocally.

Staunch Hearn and Doyle supporters will not vary their vote, most likely. To the staunch Liberals or the New Democrats, the choice is easy.

But to the 15% or more of progressives who abandoned Mr. Hearn, Mr. Doyle and their leader, there is a choice. There is a choice that represents substantive local change that can, in turn produce substantive national change. To make that work, local Progressive Conservatives who left Hearn and Doyle, the local voters who turned their backs on the past once can take another step by voting for candidates who, personally, are closer to them in outlook and values than any of the others.

The challenge the province faces today is how to build on what we have. The challenge we face is the challenge of change. That challenge can only be met with fresh eyes and an approach that does not look to shopworn approaches and words that were all the rage in the 1970s and 1980s. That challenge can only be met by individuals who have shown they can work together with people from different backgrounds and different ways of doing things.

On January 23rd, we voters in the northeast Avalon must turn our face toward the future and make a choice.

From that perspective, voters in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and St. John's East can make their choice confidently.