Then there are ducks

Dad is not without some talent, of course.

At left is a 1/35th scale DUKW built and painted by your humble e-scribe. This is a picture from the almost-finished version so it is still missing some little bits and pieces. Nevertheless, you'll get the idea.

DUKW's, known affectionately as ducks, were built on military 2.5 ton truck chassis and designed to ferry men and supplies over the beaches at Normandy. They are fully amphibious, meaning they can go straight from land into the water and vice versa.

At right is a real DUKW lovingly restored and driven through mud, muck and water by its American owner.

Ralph just bided his time

Alberta may well be introducing changes to the province's health care system that include direct billing by doctors to patients for some services.

What a surprise. it's not like Ralph Klein hasn't talked about that before.

Let's see how the new Conservative administration in Ottawa responds, if indeed the changes violate the Canada Health Act.

Charges laid in DND fraud case

Some Connies tossed the case of alleged fraud within the Department of National Defence on the doorstep of the Liberals, largely because they just tossed every one they could into the pile of alleged "corruption" and miscellaneous evil and kitten eating.

Well, read the story by Canadian Press.

There was criminal activity. The police were called. People were charged. Those who blamed "Liberals" for this were, as usual, grossly deficient in their facts.

Then again, some people can never be accused of letting facts get in the way of a smear.

The battle lines might be forming

over the so-called vertical fiscal imbalance and Equalization reform.

Check the Globe and Mail on Tuesday, specifically the story on the Harper budget due for March.

It includes this section at the end:

Experts warn that the new Tory regime will be hard-pressed to pay for a controversial election promise to share Ottawa's surplus riches with the provinces. Last December Mr. Harper pledged to fix the so-called fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces.

"I think we have to face the fact that Ottawa is rolling in tens of billions of dollars in surpluses . . . at the same time as provinces and municipalities are having trouble meeting the essential core services without going into debt," he said then. "We must find a long-term revenue transfer from the federal government to the provinces and municipalities."

But economists warn that the Conservative fiscal plan provides scant resources for assistance to the provinces. The Tories did not budget any cash for fixing the imbalance, but said they will fund it from $22-billion in budget surpluses their plan would generate over five years.

Dale Orr, chief economist at Global Insight (Canada), said the Tories won't have much cash to spare, especially if they set aside some of each year's projected surplus to guard against economic downturns. He said what's left is small potatoes. "That's not very interesting to the premiers . . . They are talking big, big bucks."

Quebec not interested in elected senate

Since Steve Harper has only committed to a "national" approach, there's no reason why we couldn't wind up in the bizarre situation where some provinces elect senators and some don't.

In the original announcement, Harper left the impression he'd turn the selection process for senators over to provincial premiers rather than run national elections organized by elections Canada.

Quebec clearly isn't interested.

Now we have to see how serious Harper was about senate reform.

Goose Bay take note: Connie defence promises to be modified

As noted here, the Conservative defence promises contained many elements that could not be delivered, at least in the near term.

Canadian Press reported on Monday that the plan will be modified. The $2.0 billion price tag is way too low.

Toronto power needs good sign for Lower Churchill

As much as Danny Williams likes to muse about building the Lower Churchill hydro project on his own, the joint offer from Quebec and Ontario is still the best option available.

A story today in the Toronto Star confirms Ontario is so strapped for power, the provincial government is looking at building a gas-fired power plant in Hog Town to make sure the lights stay on.

The Harper Plan

Courtesy of the Toronto Star comes a speculation piece on Steve Harper's plans for Canada.

Part of the plan is already easy to see: the Conservatives plan to reduce federal involvement in areas of provincial jurisdiction, such as funding programs in health care, social services and education.

That's one of the logical implications of the Equalization reform proposals, for example, which are designed, in part to lower Ottawa's outlays. As some others have suggested, the Conservative starting point in talks with the provinces would be reduced federal taxes that would have the ffect of opening room for the provinces to boost their tax haul.

Expect that one to disappear quickly.

What political leader wants to raise taxes?

Provincial Liberals still hunting for leader

Interim provincial Liberal leader Gerry Reid announced today that he won't be seeking the job permanently.

Former cabinet minister Anna Thistle - admittedly a long shot - also confirmed she won't be running.

The hunt is still on for someone to challenge lawyer Jim Bennett. So far he's the only declared candidate. Bennett enjoys the support of former Smallwood-era cabinet minister Bill Callahan, current caucus chair Percy Barrett and St. John's city councilor Tom Hann.

Bennett, who is married to Ontario cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello, has announced only one initiative thus far: to nationalize Fishery Products International, either in whole or in part.

Others reportedly considering a run for the leadership include Paul Antle and Siobhan Coady.

St. John's council gets religion - sort of

Surprise. Surprise.

St. John's city council voted tonight to send the matter of their raises to an independent committee of some kind for a review and recommendations.

Only Mayor Andy Wells voted against the motion to rescind the pay hikes.

Update: As The Telly reports, councilors were quick to admit they had a problem but their conversion seems reluctant and half-hearted.

As one wag put it it's like council feels that they got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, sister ratted them out and mommy just needs to understand the reasons why they took the cookies in the first.

Andy comfortably predicted the independent consultant who will now review the matter will come back with the same recommendation.

That all depends on who council picks to be the "independent" consultant.

Hands up who thinks it will be Andy's buddy, like say Marie White?

Et maintenant - Stephane Dion

With McKenna out of the way and the second week of leadership speculation calming down somewhat, there is time to look to an obvious choice for leader:

Stephane Dion.

The only issue I'd take with this endorsement from the Draft Dion blog is that Dion would not defend the Trudeau vision of Canada. Rather he'd represent a vision of Canada which a great many Canadians share and which is sadly not being reflected in the current dialogue.

Equalization for beginners

In light of the interest in federal-provincial fiscal relations, here's a link to a post from last year that explained Equalization as simply as I could possibly explain it.

Take a gander.

This will serve as a grounding for the next major post. In that one, I will review the Danny Williams' proposal for Equalization reform and compare it to the one offered up by the federal Conservatives.

Pull the other one, Tom Hann.

It's got bells on it.

Hann, the newbie councilor is actually a political veteran who claims he is new to politics and needs to develop a thicker skin.

Seems Hann is bristling over criticism that he went along with his fellow St. John's city councilors in giving themselves a hefty raise in pay without going through a proper process.

Hann calls the whole affair a "public relations disaster" and that if people understood the reason for the raise, there wouldn't be any controversy. That's one of the things he told CBC radio.

He told The Sunday Telegram he hadn't seen the memo from council staff advising that they needed to send the whole affair to an outside group. Seems Hann is to busy to manage all the paper.

What we have here is not a public relations problem....at least not in the sense that Hann means it.

What the residents of St. John's have here is a council that is incapable of adhering to some basic management principles or its own rules.

Council screwed up.

Badly.

They got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, violating their own resolutions and own by-laws and, if predictions hold, stepping forward at today's meeting to simply change the rules to suit their purposes.

Hann's excuses - "I didn't get the memo" or "if people only understood..." - demonstrate clearly that the political veteran knows full well how to try and bluster his way through a problem of his own creation. The issue never was about the rationale for the raise; it's about the way council handled the whole affair from the beginning. They broke the rules and now simply want to ignore both the criticisms and the rules to keep their ill-gotten gains.

Unfortunately, what Hann learned in his political life is how not to handle a problem.

If Hann understood what public relations really is - and political public relations at that - he'd recognize some pretty simple actions that would make the whole issue disappear in a heartbeat:

Action Number 1: Admit to the mistake.

- That's a mark of integrity and character in a leader.

Action Number 2: Rescind the motion granting the raise and start following the rules.

- Hann and his fellow councilors will likely get a raise, but they'll get it in a way that won't raise the hackles on citizens' necks.

Action Number 3: Stop bullshitting people with cheap excuses.

- Bullshit let's everyone know that you understand the real issues but you are just ducking them. Bullshit also tells residents you have no respect for them and what's worse, that your election platform may have been a snow job.

The thing is, the way Hann is handling this issue, he is damaging the one commodity he can't afford to damage: his credibility. Once that's gone, a politician is in serious trouble.

Hann and his fellow councilors have a public relations problem alright.

The kind of problem a public relations professional could sort out quickly.

But for some inexplicable reason, politicians seem to have difficulty identifying the nature of their problem, let alone sort it out.

The Amazing Shrinking Minority, or The Integrity of Brian Pallister

124 seats.

Lop off one for a speaker.

Now lop off Brian Pallister who is reportedly casting longing glances at the Manitoba Progressive Conservative leadership race:

"...I will be returning to Manitoba and consulting with Manitobans as to whether they wish me to enter the race for the Provincial PC leadership."

This is the same Brian Pallister who on the night of the election denied said provincial political longings:

"I can'’t even begin to consider a provincial option right now," a jubilant Pallister said from his election headquarters in Portage last night. "Tonight I"’m just celebrating 10 years of hard work."

That's 122 and shrinking.

Next!

City ignores own conflict of interest law...and own previous motion

Update: It's Saturday. Grab the Telly for yet more on the slimy operations at City Hall.

on Monday night passed, Council ignored one of its own resolutions - as well as the by-law on conflict of interest described below. That motion, passed in 2002 mandated that council send the issue of salaries to an independent panel before each election and that the incoming council would accept the recommendations.

Despite the fact that all but three of the current councilors voted on that motion, none of them paid any attention to it.

In the meeting on Monday night, city officials reminded council of the need to rescind the 2002 motion. They ignored it and carried on anyway.

Meanwhile, the Telly reports that newbie council Ron Ellsworth (whose election campaign expenses are still larger than his newly inflated salary, but only just) will introduce a motion on Monday...to rescind the 2002 motion, not the one every is complaining about.

unrepentant, the Boor Mayor continues to lash out at all those who oppose him.

Grab the Telly. Vintage small town politics.

Sad but true.

_________________

St. John's City Council is in hot water with residents of the capital.

At Monday night's meeting, without putting it on the agenda, providing any form of advance notice, and without mentioning it in the budget at all, councilors voted themselves a retroactive pay hike that will see some of them getting cheques for thousands of dollars.

According to The Telegram, council made the decision without consulting staff or an outside sources. They merely sat around a table, did some quick math and boosted their pay.

It was a unanimous decision. Some councilors, like Shannie Duff ought to have known better that the process council used was pathetically inappropriate. However, given Duff's long career on council it is possible she was overcome by a moment of group-think.

Newbie councilor Ron Ellsworth offered a lame excuse: apparently he works hard. He may work hard, but the method he chose to reward himself is so ridiculous as to defy explanation.

As for Tom Hann, the whole affair beggars imagination. The guy who has railed against council for its secretiveness and for its alleged massaging of the books at Mile One stadium has now simply become one of the people he used to criticize. How quickly he was absorbed into the collective when Andy, Doc and the boys started talking about paycheques.

The guy who was a fixture of the Open Line shows along with Sue and the Moon man has now been struck mute. His silence is deafening. Should Hann pop up on Monday - after he sees which way the wind is blowing - to rescind the motion and offer apologies, citizens of St. John's should take his conversion with a grain of salt.

Keep an eye on him. The salary issue was too obviously wrong and his willingness to go along with it too easy. Hann was elected having spoken out about the need for financial propriety at City Hall. In this instance, the watchdog helped load the getaway van.

The issue here is solely one of process and the process used is wrong.

The process is wrong because council violated its own by-laws by using the method it did.

By-law 103 on conflict of interest to be specific:

3.(1) No member of Council shall vote on or speak to any matter before the Council or any committee thereof where:

(a) the member of Council has a pecuniary interest directly or indirectly in that matter; (Amended 97/12/01; #1401)

There is no more direct pecuniary interest than a councilor's own remuneration for the job of serving on council.

Conflict of interest is why in every other elected body, the remuneration for elected officials is passed to third parties to decide. Even if council must, by law, vote on its own salary, the salary should be set by someone other than council and adopted without debate.

The question now remains what to do.

Council has no choice but rescind the motion granting the raises. Who better to do it than Doc O'Keefe, the deputy mayor. To do otherwise would merely confirm that council behaves exactly as they have been accused of behaving: without regard to the law.

Once rescinded council should appoint a panel of three persons - none of them being former councilors - and give them 30 days to report on a new method of setting council remuneration from this point forward. Under no circumstances should council grant retroactive pay and under no circumstances should citizens have to deal with this spectacle again in four years' time.

The Blue Plan: rapid execution of deportation orders

Church basements across the country might be filling up quickly if this part of the Harper plan goes into action:

In April 2003, the Auditor General reported that the federal government had lost track of some 36,000 people who were under deportation orders. This is unacceptable. People who are under deportation orders must be removed. Canadians deserve nothing less. [Emphasis added]

The plan

A Conservative government will:

*• Rapidly reduce the backlog of unexecuted deportation orders and swiftly carry out new deportation orders.

There have been cases in Newfoundland and Labrador, which successful Connie candidates laid at the doorstep of Liberals, all the while knowing their party platform contained the above-cited provision.

Now in today's Ottawa Sun comes the case of a family originally from Belgium that is likely to get the swift boot from Canada.

The problem? A 24 year old conviction for breaking and enetering which federal immigration officials have known about all the while renewing the family's papers on a regular basis. The previous conviction only became an issue when the family sought permanent resident status.

From the Sun:

How long it will take the snail-moving bureaucracy to process it, and (it is hoped) give permanent-residency approval, nobody knows. Hillier is hoping the new Harper government will be a blessing. He says he already had support for the Van Hauves from Tory MPs in the area. "All we're asking is a 120-day extension," he says. "What harm is there in that?"

Let's hope that the incoming Conservative government rethinks its policy on deportations, at least just a weensy bit. And that those Connie members of parliament who were willing to support this guy weren't just doing it for the votes.

Choice of new resources minister could ignite old feud

The Financial Post is reporting that Alberta oil interests would like to see the federal natural resources portfolio assigned to a senior cabinet minister to reflect accurately the role the oil and gas industry plays in the Canadian economy.

"The Liberal administration looked on energy as an annoyance, which makes sense in that their stronghold, central Canada, is made up of energy consumers. It was the job of the natural resources minister to keep the consumers happy," Mr. [Frank] Atkins [, a University of Calgary economist] said. "The West is an energy producer, so now we'll get the proper perspective on that.

The choice of natural resources minister may resurrect the old rivalry between the established oil producers in Alberta and the new centres of oil wealth on Canada's east coast.

Ian Doig, an oil analyst based in Calgary has been a long-standing critic of oil and gas exploration and development offshore Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador. Doig is familiar in Newfoundland and Labrador as a constant critic of the Hibernia project. His views, which often reflect the general opinions in the Alberta oil patch, haven't changed in the past 20 years. As he told the Globe and Mail recently about increased interest by Husky in the east coast offshore:

However encouraging the signs, the fact remains that there has not been a significant discovery of oil offshore of Newfoundland in two decades, said Ian Doig, a long-time observer of the East Coast industry and publisher of the industry newsletter Doig's Digest.

Mr. Doig said any deep-water exploration is difficult, but that the Orphan Basin is tough even by that standard. Chevron said the ocean in the Orphan Basin is five to 25 times as deep as the Jeanne D'Arc Basin.

He said Newfoundland's chief success in recent years has been to secure royalty concessions from the Liberal federal government.

"They've been more successful with energy riches in Ottawa than offshore."

Having an Albertan as natural resources minister could also reinforce efforts to draw more and more Canadian and American oil and gas policy attention to Alberta.

Alberta's success in promoting its own oil and gas resources are easy to see. Both the Government of Alberta and the federal Liberal government worked to attract American interest in the oil sands, including planning a visit by vice-president Dick Cheney last fall.

Veteran United States Senator Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) has already predicted Canada will surpass Saudi Arabia as the leading supplier of oil to the United States. But Hatch's attention is firmly focused on Alberta, describing it as the 800 pound gorilla sitting immediately above Montana.

CBS News' 60 minutes also profiled the oil sands recently, describing them as likely to become more important to the United States than Saudi Arabia.

Try finding any similar attention being paid to the east coast offshore. True there has been an uptick in calls for exploration bids, but there is nothing to rival the recent attention paid to Alberta in the major markets south of the border.

The east coast oil and gas industry still faces significant challenges, not the least of which is making its regulatory regime both effective and competitive. It simply isn't clear whether or not the provincial government is interested in a genuinely competitive, modern oil and gas industry. Turning the province's hydro corporation into a neophyte oil and gas company, the premier's instance on piling on local benefits to projects, and the nomination of Andy Wells to head the offshore regulator all suggest a return to a policy straight out of the unsuccessful past.

That policy is distinctly out of step with the new federal Conservative government's philosophy of economic development and that is ultimately where the problem may rest. Alberta is surging ahead on an agenda of innovation, local entrepreneurship and attracting new outside investment. That matches perfectly with the Conservative view.

What happens offshore Newfoundland and Labrador in the next few years will depend very heavily on who sits as the federal natural resources minister come February 6. If it winds up being an Albertan or someone sympathetic to Alberta's approach - either of which is almost a certainty - Newfoundland and Labrador might find itself in a difficult spot.

We've been in that same spot before and we don't need to go there again.

Double talk can't protect double dip

No matter how hard Loyola and Loyola try and double-talk the coming changes on the Equalization program, there's little doubt the Equalization offsets in the Atlantic Accord will be factored into the calculations.

After all, the 1985 Accord and the 2005 deal are both designed to hand this province Equalization as if oil revenues didn't exist.

The new Harper proposal is designed to hand us Equalization as if oil and gas and other non-renewables didn't exist.

And in the Rob Antle story below, you'll even see Loyola talking about the new Equalization proposal as an Atlantic Accord in perpetuity.

So, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that if the new Equalization deal is done, there is no need for Ottawa to double pay the province with offsets on things that don't need to be offset because they are already offset.

Confused? You would be if you listened to Loyola.

Or Loyola.

No one is going ask for the money back - Loyola is an old enough war horse to understand you can say something silly like that knowing full well it won't come true.

It's called misdirection.

Of course what neither Loyola will say is the simple truth:

In all likelihood, the money already received or provided under the Atlantic Accord (1985) will be looked on as an advance on any new Equalization entitlements. It will be deducted from future payments. Once the advance is gone the old Danny Deal will be dead, just like the offset provisions of the Brian Deal.

There's no way to keep the Equalization offsets off the table.

Thursday, January 26, 2006
"‘Can'’t turn back the clock"’
By Rob Antle, The Telegram


The Williams administration is welcoming prime minister-designate Stephen Harper'ss planned changes to the federal equalization program.

But Finance Minister Loyola Sullivan said the $2-billion up-front payment from last year'’s Atlantic Accord agreement should not factor into any modifications to the formula.

"“That was a deal, it was an up-front payment with no strings attached, as a minimum payment,"” Sullivan told The Telegram Wednesday.

"“We can only go forward, we can'’t go back in the annals of history and do adjustments to the past."”

Harper'’s policy platform included a pledge to exempt non-renewable resource revenues, such as oil and gas, from equalization calculations.

Such a change would likely add more dollars to the provincial treasury, Sullivan said.

It would also effectively enshrine the key principle of the Accord - — sheltering 100 per cent of non-renewable revenues, such as oil and gas, from equalization - — for all provinces.

"“We'’re going to get that break forever, if he took non-renewables out and left them out,"” Sullivan said. "“It'’s going to be an Atlantic Accord in perpetuity."

The Accord deal signed last year expires in 2012, with a renewal provision that could see it extended to 2020.

As part of the agreement with the outgoing Martin government, the province received an upfront payment of $2 billion for enhanced offshore benefits.

Sullivan insisted that cash should not be included in any future fiddling with equalization rules.

"“Look, the federal government has booked this and paid it out in the '’05-'’06 fiscal year. That'’s gone. That'’s an expenditure; that'’s booked. That'’s going to show up in their public accounts for the last fiscal year.

"“They can'’t come back and say, '‘Uh-oh, we want money back two years later on that.'’ If we go forward with a new formula - they can'’t turn the clock back on that."

Conservative MP Loyola Hearn - — pegged as a likely pick for Harper'’s cabinet - — said he doesn'’t think it will be a problem.

"“What we'’re talking about is something above and beyond the deal that was done entirely," ” said Hearn, MP for St. John'’s South-Mount Pearl.

"“It certainly shouldn'’t play any role, from my perspective. I don'’t think it will. I'’ve never heard it mentioned in that light.

"“When we got the commitment on the Accord, then (the Liberals) tried to fool around with every little loophole that they had. I mean, that'’s what we fought against, so we'’d be a bit hypocritical to try and play the same game."”

Harper is expected to take over as prime minister within two weeks.

Sullivan said he will write the new finance minister then to broach the topic.

By the end of the 2006-07 fiscal year, the province will have spent $541 million of the $2 billion Accord pre-payment, Sullivan said.

That leaves $1.46 billion he said should remain exempt from review.

Accord aside, the planned equalization changes should benefit the province, Sullivan said.

Nearly 20 per cent of the province'’s total revenues derive from the oil and gas sector, he noted. That'’s a much larger proportion than most other provinces.

And other non-renewable resources - — such as the mining sector, with Voisey'’s Bay coming on stream - — would also be exempted from equalization, the finance minister said.

"“We would benefit more than we would benefit just by having this Atlantic Accord now,"” Sullivan noted.

Equalization is an important issue for the province.

Newfoundland and Labrador received $861 million in equalization from Ottawa this year, according to the province'’s 2005-06 mid-year fiscal update.

That'’s in addition to hundreds of millions in offshore royalties and new Accord benefits.

The overall budget clocks in at about $4.3 billion.

The planned equalization changes could be detrimental to other provinces, however. Quebec, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, for example, have relatively little or no revenues from non-renewable resources.

The Conservative platform promises "“we will ensure that no province is adversely affected from changes to the equalization formula,"” but does not offer further details.

rantle@thetelegram.com

Vox populi

Canadian Publius has an interesting point on the results of Monday's election and an Environics poll conducted for CBC.

As Publius puts it:

According to Environics, of the 36% who voted conservative, 54% voted that way because they wanted a change, only 41% because they wanted a conservative government.

In plain English, only about 17% of Canadians want a Conservative government. The remaining 19% who voted conservative felt the Liberals needed a kick in the pants.

Turn the dial on your time machine and head back to the Conservative minority of May 1979. As Jeffrey Simpson described it in Discipline of power, the Conservatives discovered that for all the promises of action and uplifting rhetoric, more than anything else voters crossed to the Conservatives "not because of the promises made during the campaign, but because they were tired of Trudeau and wanted a change."

Allan Gregg, then the Conservative's pollster, described it this way: "The reason for the nationwide impact on voting behaviour undoubtedly stemmed from the almost unanimous belief it was time for a change....Equally, our core support - that is, 1979 voters who identified with the PC Party and claimed they always voted PC - comprised a mere 18% of the electorate, or about one half of our May 22nd support...."

Back in 2006, the Environics poll found strong support for two Conservative promises. Canadians like getting tough on crime and on electing senators, but they were divided almost evenly on cutting the GST, getting rid of the gun registry and dismantling the national daycare system established by Paul Martin.

Health care and the health system remained the single most important issue for most Canadians polled by Environics with honesty/ethics and accountability coming second.

Respondents are almost evenly split on whether or not the Conservatives would be good for the country.

The upshot of all this is pretty straightforward. The Conservative minority will have a challenge as it moves to implement its platform. Some elements, such as the accountability sections, will likely garner easy support. Support for senate reform is such that the prime minister-elect could move quickly on that as well and could build support for even more significant changes than the ones he is proposing.

Of course, Environics did not poll the provincial premiers.

They are lining up for federal cash.

And that's a whole other can of political worms.

Is this next time?

In 1990, the lapel buttons circulating on the floor of the convention read "Next time, Clyde."

Earlier that year, there was widespread support across the country for him. He remains a widely respected leader who governed based on principles. Tackled a massive economic problem and helped turn it around.

So I say to you:

"The next is here!"