We weren't kidding...

when we subtitled a list of old columns "Travels in Danny-land".

Scroll down on the right and you'll see it.

[Left: Premier Danny Williams. Photo: Greg Locke/Current]

Check out this account from The Current online of an encounter between the president of the Conservative Party of Canada and some local senior Progressive Conservatives at the Tory convention in Gander last month.

The name is official.

sort of.

Update: Take a look at the Offal News take on this story as well.

I can add a bit of colour to Lono's comments, in the sense of background. As it turned out in June 1990, the task fell to me for co-ordinating the security and logistics details of two visiting first ministers during Meech Lake. I got the prime minister and the Ontario premier, David Peterson. Another guy in the office got McKenna and Grant Devine.

Now you have to bear in mind that this was during the course of the very heated debate in the House of Assembly. Emotions were running high and the Premier and the Prime Minister quite clearly didn't see eye-to-eye about very much of anything. Even at the level I operated on, which was several layers down from the grown-ups, the general approach we followed is the one to most people would expect. To the best of my knowledge, it's the approach pretty well any first minister's office has followed.

Your job as a staffer is to make things happen and to represent your boss, the office he holds and the province as a whole with as much professionalism and dignity as you can muster.

And hey...no matter how much you disagree with his policies, the guy is still the prime minister of the country or the Premier of Ontario. As they say in the army, even if you can't salute the man, salute the rank.

Mulroney came down, the trip went without a hitch and there was never - to the best of my knowledge - anything that would reflect badly on the Office of the Premier, the Premier himself and the province. Courtesy was the order of the day, even when the advance guy was being a complete ass about cameras in the legislature.

As an aside, the CBC television producer involved wound the guy up tighter than tight before he finally agreed to a request both knew was easy enough to accomplish. The problem was in the guy's tone. But that's another story.

To get back to the point, in the little saga The Current lays out, one of the people involved is Tommy Williams, the premier's brother; the other was allegedly one of the Premier's senior staffers. Even though Tommy isn't on staff, people know who the heck he is and he really falls under the same sort of expectations as the staff. That is, unless his goal is to be like Jimmy Carter's doltish brother.

If he acted the way he is alleged to have acted, then we have a serious problem. If people carry on this way when they represent the Premier we all look like schmucks.

We all get branded as boors.

There really isn't much chance that the staffers can work around the bosses' disagreements - public or private, real or imaginary - because the staffers are basically acting as boorishly as the grown-ups.

To make matters worse, when people representing the province act like horse's asses, you can imagine how little they really think of the province and its people.

If the Gander story is true, it wasn't the national Conservative party president who got told to off.

Nope.

By implication, we have all been put on notice:

This is Dannystan.

Danny takes a hit

Provincial New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael defeated Progressive Conservative Jerome Kennedy in a by-election in Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi [pronounced either "kiddy viddy" or "kweyeda - veyeda"] this evening by a 55% to 45% margin.

Michael polled 1968 votes to Kennedy's 1585. The Liberals didn't field a candidate, ostensibly out of courtesy to Michael.

The district has been held by the New Democrats since the early 1990s.

Showing the strength of their grass-roots organization, New Democrats turned out 80% of their votes from the 2003 general election while the Williams Conservatives pulled 71% of their previous vote.

The Williams defeat came as a surprise to many who expected the ruling party to sail to victory. Williams' personal popularity continues at record levels and St. John's is traditionally a Tory stronghold. The Premier spent a considerable amount of time campaigning door-to-door in the district on behalf of his candidate and deployed considerable numbers of his caucus to help with the campaign.

Still, the Tory campaign had some curious missing elements. For example, the campaign never established a website, preferring instead to focus on door-to-door work and signage. Kennedy's signs, however, were typically found on public land while Michaels signs turned up more often than not in windows and on front lawns.

Kennedy's radio spots were also lacklustre compared to Michael's efforts. While Kennedy featured himself and endorsements from Danny Williams, Michael's spots featured endorsements from well-known figures like actor and community leader Greg Malone.

Some observers noted that Kennedy and Williams focused on what is locally down as the downtown arts community. Some recent media coverage drew attention to a supposed split in the arts community with actors Mary Walsh and Amy Howse campaigning for Kennedy. Walsh and Howse likely represented personal choices given Kennedy's strong involvement with the local arts community. He previously appeared as a guest on Walsh's Open Book CBC television program discussing works by well-known or lesser-known contemporary authors.

Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi is comprised of a broad demographic cross-section with only a relatively small portion being made up of the St. John's-based arts community.

Speaking on a local radio call-in show, Kennedy would not commit to running in next year's general election saying that he has to sit back and evaluate the outcome and return to focusing on his law practice.

Kennedy was gracious in defeat, although during the campaign he told CBC Radio:

The NDP doesn't really have a campaign that I can see, other than, 'Elect us because we need someone in the house of assembly.'

Taking a look at the turn-out and relative votes, some curious points turn up:

1. The Tories should have won. They have a strong government, tons of resources and volunteers, had a great candidate and basically were the shoe-ins despite the fact the New Democrats have held the seat for so long.

2. 71% is nothing to write home about given the points noted above. Even allowing for a lower turnout in a by-election, the Tories were able to turn out fewer of their supporters than one would have expected.

Were the Tories over-confident or was this a sign - as some have noted - that Danny's support among old-line Tories in St. John's is getting soft?

3. Kennedy was Danny's personal choice. Other potential candidates were actively discouraged from running. Both played up their personal connections and previous work. Jerome constantly confirmed his unquestioning support for the Premier's line on everything.

This defeat has got to have set a few dishes flying about any room Danny was in.

St. John's can take the hit

Danny Williams has been able to keep some of his problems as little more than pictures on a television screen. Problems in Harbour Breton and Stephenville, exacerbated by his own posturing and a failure to deliver on his promises, couldn't get media attention outside of the regions where the problems occurred.

Monday's job fair was different. The spectacle of 9000 people turning out in the capital city for the chance at a job in Alberta cannot be ignored. To the contrary, it has set tongues wagging across the northeast Avalon.

Simon Lono, at Offal News, has put this into perspective rather well.

The difference between this situation and Stephenville, for example, is more than the fact it is in town.

Unlike their cousins from the south and west coast of the island, these latest economic refugees are people looking for work in the oil industry. They are, in many cases people who were lined up to work on Hebron.

They are heading for Alberta, not because of Chinese competition or a shortage of resource or any of a host of other factors that could be blamed for problems in other industries.

No. These people are packing up the F-150 and heading west because of Danny Williams ' apparent belief that, in the words of Offal News, "we are better off awaiting a better offer in government royalties and equity."

Williams - perhaps channeling Marie Antoinette, instead of the usual e.e. cummings - put it another way: "St. John's can take the hit."

Maybe it can.

But that's not really the point.

Williams is under increasing pressure to produce something of substance and at every turn he seems to be genuinely incapable of delivering on anything. The latest on the list is the energy plan. The oft-used excuse for inaction - "we won't decide until we release the energy plan" - will now not arrive until 2007, the better part of two years behind schedule.

All of this will inevitably fuel the growing Quiet Revulsion.

On top of that political problem, Williams has an abysmal reputation with Ottawa. Danny Williams relationship with Stephen Harper is arguably worse than the relationship between any former premier and the corresponding prime minister. Clyde Wells and Brian Mulroney? They could sit and chat civilly if for no other reason than their disagreement - while deep-seated - was based on something other than one inviting the other to a meal and then publicly kicking him in the goolies just because it suited his personal political agenda.

Williams' problems do not stop there. He has also alienated a great many of his fellow first ministers. Jean Charest is merely the latest. Danny is surely off the Charest's Christmas card list Danny's intemperate and decidedly ignorant characterization of Quebec politics as volatile and unstable. Williams only compounded his initial insult by apologizing not for the remarks but that people felt offended at being told they were a threat to the country. By Williams own version, he could not apologize for simply stating fact.

No, the real question is not whether St. John's can take the economic hit from Williams' actions over Hebron.

With his self-induced economic and political problems and the growing Quiet Revulsion, the question remains whether Danny Williams will be able to withstand the political hit he is likely to take. Maybe not in Wednesday's by-election or even next year's general election.

but one day.

soon.

Something says St. John's can indeed take the hit.

But something also says the thin-skinned premier cannot.

Energy plan delayed until 2007; Lower Churchill prospects dimmer

Interviewed by Randy Simms on VOCM Open Line Tuesday, Premier Danny Williams said:

1. The Lower Churchill will be financed by Newfoundland and Labrador alone. Quebec's role will be as the energy transporter, with Ontario as a possible customer for the power.

Don't count on the project proceeding, at least not on terms that are financially favourable to Newfoundland and Labrador. The huge cost of the project, estimated at upwards of $9.0 billion, would effectively double the province's debt. If the province can even arrange financing - and that remains a big if - the terms might render the project financially unpalatable except to a government which has nothing else to offer as an economic development.

2. The energy plan is now delayed until Spring 2007. Originally promised by the end of 2006 and set to include the long-awaited natural gas royalty regime, Williams today said the plan will be out by the end of the year or early in the New Year.

Count on sometime in spring 2007. Williams is notoriously bad at meeting timeliness. He is typically six months or more off original time estimates.

As a result, we can count on even further delays - measured in years - for prospective development of offshore gas.

Refinery marginalia

Natural resources minister counted some chickens before they were hatched Monday with a statement anticipating construction of a second oil refinery in Newfoundland and Labrador.

As she put it:

The initial stages of the feasibility study on a second refinery for Placentia Bay determined that a new refinery can compete effectively throughout the Atlantic Basin marketplace and the proposed project is now in the final stages of that feasibility process

But a few paragraphs later comes this proviso:

A significant amount of work and analysis still needs to be done before a project of this type can be given the green light to proceed, but I am well aware of the tremendous economic spin offs of additional refinery capacity and I'm delighted with the progress to date.

Government "news" releases are always good at keeping us abreast of crucial developments, like progress reports on a minister's mental well-being. It is vital to know that the minister is "delighted".

Let's take a closer look at the project and forget Dunderdale's mental state.

The first quote is lifted almost word-for-word from Newfoundland and Labrador Refining's release from late September, to wit:

The initial economic analysis completed in Stage One of the feasibility study determined that a new refinery in Placentia Bay can compete effectively throughout the Atlantic Basin marketplace...

But, as Bond Papers has already noted, the sanction for this project will come only if the third stage of the feasibility study - not due until the end of the year. As well, a recent announcement by Irving that it will build a second refinery at Saint John, next to its existing 250,000 barrel per day facility puts a crimp in the economics of the second refinery in Newfoundland and Labrador.

When asked about the impact of the Saint John expansion, Brian Dalton, spokesperson for NL Refining said that the site in Placentia Bay was excellent. Unfortunately for Dalton, site won't be the determining factor in whether or not he and his partners go ahead with the multi-billion dollar project.

Site, in this instance, is like Dunderdale's enthusiasm for the spinoff benefits. That won't matter either when it comes to the business decision of investing in a greenfield project in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Curiously, the project is registered with the provincial environment department, een before project sanction has been achieved. There is still no sign of the project on the federal government's environmental assessment registry.

There are a couple of interesting points to note in the provincial environmental department's description of the project:

2) Southern Head (Placentia Bay) Oil Refinery Project
Proponent: Newfoundland and Labrador Refining Corporation (Reg. 1301)

The proponent proposes to construct an oil refinery at Southern Head, between North Harbour and Come by Chance, at the head of Placentia Bay. The oil refinery is proposed to have an initial production capacity of 300,000 barrels per day with the option to expand to 600,000 barrels per day. Primary products of the oil refinery would be gasoline, kerosene/jet fuel, ultra-low sulphur diesel and refining by-products. Infrastructure required would include process facilities, marine terminal, crude and product storage tanks, access road and utilities. Construction will take approximately three years to complete and production is planned to begin in late 2010 or early 2011. The undertaking was registered on October 25, 2006; public comments are due by December 4, 2006; and the minister's decision is due by December 9, 2006.

1. The proposed refinery will handle heavy sour crude. Historically that type of refinery is the one with the lowest margins and hence is one of the most difficult to make a solid profit on in the long haul.

Come by Chance works because the thing was built and paid off decades ago. Because of the low margins, refineries have typically been built close to market to lower transportation costs.

Come by Chance processes imported crude, mainly from Iraq, largely because Vitol has been able to acquire feedstock at good prices.

Currently all Newfoundland and Labrador crude production is light, sweet. Hebron is a heavy sour field but it will likely not be in production before 2015 at the earliest. Thus, the proposed refinery is likely built on the assumption that it will use imported crude.

2. The planned start of operation is obviously an estimate, contingent on completion of the feasibility process. No one should be getting their knickers in a bunch that Arnold's Cove is about to become the second Calgary.

3. This would be a honkin' big refinery. The Saint John project is estimated to be 300,000 barrels per day. The proposal calls for a refinery project that would ultimately equal the output of both Saint John's existing and planned refineries.

4. Without detailed information on the proposed refinery, it will be extremely difficult to assess for environmental impact of this very large refinery within the very short timeframe provided by the provincial government.

Ruelokke takes helm of offshore board

Following is the text of the official announcement on Monday from federal natural resources minister Gary Lunn on the appointment of Max Ruelokke as chairman and chief executive officer of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board. Lunn also announced the appointment of Fred Way as vice-chairman.

Compare the text that follows with the tiny release issued by the provincial government on Friday at 5:10 pm.

Such is the abysmal state of federal-provincial relations that Ottawa and St. John's could not even get together on such a simple thing as a joint news release announcing a joint appointment to a joint board.

Appointments at the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board

OTTAWA - The Honourable Gary Lunn, Minister of Natural Resources, today announced the appointment of the Chair and CEO, and of the Vice-Chair, of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (CNLOPB). Mr. Max Ruelokke will hold the Chair and CEO position, and Mr. Fred Way, has been appointed the Vice-Chair.

The announcement follows the July 25, 2005, request by the Government of Canada for the establishment of a panel to select a Chair and CEO, and Vice-Chair, for the CNLOPB.

"Mr. Ruelokke brings a wealth of experience and expertise to the CNLOPB, which will benefit the organization greatly. Mr. Way will serve the Board well given his past work both as Vice-Chair and as Acting Chair and CEO," said Minister Lunn. "I am confident that both of these very accomplished individuals will be able to address and act on key issues that are important to the province and industry."

Mr. Ruelokke was born in Grand Bank, Newfoundland, and has more than 35 years of experience in offshore shipbuilding and support services, engineering design and construction. He has held a number of senior executive positions in industry, most recently serving as General Manager, East Coast Canada, for AMEC Oil and Gas. Mr. Ruelokke also served the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, first as Assistant Deputy Minister (1993 - 94) and then as Deputy Minister (1996 - 98) of the Department of Industry, Trade and Technology.

A member of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Newfoundland, Mr. Ruelokke received his Engineering Diploma in 1966 and a Bachelor of Civil Engineering in 1968, both from Memorial University in St. John's.

Mr. Way was appointed Vice-Chair of the CNLOPB in 1999, and served as Acting Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from May 2004 to October 2006. He had a distinguished career with the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and served as Deputy Minister for the Department of Mines and Energy with the provincial government from 1996 to 1998.

Mr. Way obtained a Bachelor of Arts (Economics) in 1971 from Memorial University of Newfoundland and continued with part-time graduate studies in Economics at Memorial University between 1972 and 1974.

The CNLOPB manages the petroleum resources in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore area on behalf of the governments of Canada, and Newfoundland and Labrador. The Board's authority is derived from legislation implementing the 1985 Atlantic Accord between the two governments.

Ignatieff's (and Harper's) folly

From Lysiane Gagnon's column in the Monday Globe:

The irony is that the Liberal Party really won't even benefit from its demagogic U-turn on the national unity file. The Quebec-wing resolution didn't pass the test of Quebec's political class and the overbidding has already started. Many nationalist commentators, including Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Benoit Pelletier, insisted that the only valid recognition of Quebec as a nation should be constitutional. Others said that a "symbolic" constitutional recognition wouldn't be enough if it didn't provide for more powers for the province and explicitly recognize Quebec's "right to self-determination."

As Montreal Gazette columnist Don Macpherson wrote, "even before the federal Liberal convention tears itself apart over the offers [of recognizing Quebec as a nation], Quebec has already rejected them."

Federalists should stop obsessing about the threat of another referendum on sovereignty. First, it's far from sure that there will even be one. Second, if the sovereigntist movement ever grew strong enough to convince a majority of Quebeckers to break away from Canada, it is not a token recognition of their "nation" that would stop the tide.

Iggy's supporters can take Bond Papers off their e-mail lists and his local supporters can stop calling trying to get me to buy a ticket to a luncheon or a breakfast with a guy i have already written off as being the very last person who should ever hold the job of leading the Liberal Party of Canada.

Ignatieff's folly - like that of the Prime Minister during the last election - in playing the Quebec nationalist card should be enough to discount him from further serious contention.

Mad rock?

"'Mad Rock'... I think that's probably my nickname in Ottawa these days," Williams chuckled Thursday in a speech at a conference of maritime emergency officials.

That's from a CTV story on Danny Williams replacing Ralph Klein as Canada's most outspoken first minister.

Word from Ottawa is that while Williams is regarded being a bit out-of-plumb by some at the highest levels of the federal government, his nickname is a bit more earthy:

Danny "F***ing" Williams.

Defence round-up - Afghanistan

1. Al Queda document contains threats to Canada.

Translated by the SITE Institute, the document states, in part: "They will either be forced to withdraw their forces or face an operation similar to New York, Madrid, London and their sisters, with the help of Allah."

Canada is described as having a fanatical adherence to Christianity.

2. New navy helicopters to have troop-lift capability.

Canadian Press is reporting a change to the specs for Canada's new shipborne helicopters. The Sikorsky S-92 variants will enter service in 2009. The change will allow the helicopters to be converted rapidly to carry soldiers.

Chief of Defence Staff General Rick Hillier describes the change as being related to potential use from an amphibious assault ship being acquired for the navy.

3. TF 1-07 drug testing allegedly showed 16-18% used illegal substances; Army questions news reports.

While defence officials are neither confirming nor denying the reports, some news media are reporting that 16-18% of urine samples taken from soldiers currently training for the next rotation to Afghanistan have tested positive for traces of illegal drugs, including amphetamines ("speed"), heroine and marijuana.

4. Roadside blast kills NATO soldier.

One NATO soldier was killed and eight wounded in a roadside blast on Sunday in Afghanistan.

5. NATO change of command.

On Wednesday, Canada will relinquish command of the NATO forces in the Kandahar region to the Netherlands.

6. Canadians continue reconstruction/humanitarian missions in Afghanistan.

The officer pictured is Captain Dave Muralt from the Provincial Reconstruction Team.

At one point, Captain Muralt was the public affairs officer at 5 Wing, Goose Bay.

Also mentioned in the story linked above is Captain Howard Chafe, possibly the same Howard Chafe from St. John's who served with the Royal Newfoundland Regiment and, among other things, hosted a radio program aimed at local civilians during a tour in Bosnia. It wouldn't be surprising for that Howard Chafe to turn up in Afghanistan with the PRT.

How many Howard Chafes can there be in the army?

What exactly do we mean by "nation"?

There is always a risk that discussion of national unity or federal-provincial power distribution will cause rampant insomnia, or as with others, a debilitating case of apoplexy.

[Left: At the thought of yet another constitutional debate, Canadians' heads started to explode.]

This is the risk we took yesterday in suggesting people take a gander at Andrew Coyne's column in the National Post.

The risk is well worth it, though, especially when Michael Ignatieff's comments have earned praise from no less a sovereignist than former Quebec Premier Bernard Landry. Landry welcomed Ignatieff's proposal to recognize that Quebec is a nation and then proceeded, as reported by CBC Radio, to point out that it is only logical to wonder why a nation - which as a nation Landry equated in French interviews to sovereign states - would have the same political powers within Canada as Prince Edward Island.

Landry has also been quoted extensively by French language media on the same issue.

[Photo right: La Presse. For a moment, Bernard couldn't remember which finger he needed to raise to Canada.]

To further the discussion, following is the column by Stephane Dion published in the National Post on Thursday, October 26.

Dion will undoubtedly raise the ire of a great many of the local landrys but then again that is a risk we shall have to take. It's either this, Slim Whitman recordings or an mp3 loop of Danny's dirge.

Either will cause the brain of your average sovereignist to pop.


What, exactly, do we mean by "nation"?

Stephane Dion
National Post
October 26, 2006

Before entering politics, more than 10 years ago, I maintained that we Quebecers could be described as forming a nation, in the civic and sociological sense of the term. Last Saturday, however, I voted against the resolution put forward by the Quebec wing of the Liberal Party of Canada calling for the party to undertake the necessary steps toward a formal recognition of Quebec as a nation.

Before we ask other Canadians to support such a formal recognition (in the constitution, no doubt) we should first of all determine what we expect from such a recognition. Hiding behind the apparent consensus in Quebec on this question are at least three disagreements.

- First question: Are Quebecers the only nation to be recognized within Canada, or will we accept that other groups, heartened by our example, be given the same recognition? Will the pressure exercised by an undetermined number of groups in Canada, including groups in Quebec, to be recognized as nations lead us to conclude that our own national recognition has been trivialized or diluted?

- Second question: Is this recognition necessary or is it merely desirable? Those who say it is necessary must follow their reasoning to its conclusion: If we Quebecers do not obtain this recognition then we must leave Canada. Indeed, one cannot live without something that is necessary.

Those who say that, on the contrary, this recognition would only be a good thing to obtain should not place it at the heart of the Canadian unity debate. You do not break up a country on account of something that is good but not necessary.

- Third question: Do we want this recognition to be purely symbolic or do we want it to lead to concrete consequences on, say, the division of powers or the allocation of public funds? And how does this approach square with the previous question? It is contradictory to affirm that the recognition of Quebec as a nation is necessary but purely symbolic. But that is the untenable position Michael Ignatieff has decided to advocate. Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc Quebecois leader, and Claude Morin, the former PQ minister, have already responded that if the recognition of Quebec as a nation in Canada is important then it must bring about "something" beyond symbolism.

We've seen this movie three times already. First it was the debate on the constitutional recognition of Quebec as a "distinct society" contained in the Meech and Charlottetown accords. Then came the Calgary Declaration, a 1997 episode which few people remember. The premiers of the other provinces tried to define, for us Quebecers, the type of recognition we wanted. They had their legislatures adopt a declaration that recognized "the unique character of Quebec society." When the declaration landed in Quebec, the province's political class rejected it, stating that this recognition "had no teeth."

So, here is my position: I am proud to belong to the Quebec nation within Canada. The constitutional recognition of such a fact, although desirable, is not necessary because nothing prevents us Quebecers from participating and succeeding in this great endeavour that is Canada, a country we have contributed so much to building.

Nothing can justify our renouncing our Canadian identity. Such a rupture would be a tragedy, for ourselves, our children and future generations. We should not be encouraged to make such a mistake on the basis of a recognition that is desirable but not necessary. That is my position and I am more than willing to debate it because I do not underestimate the importance of symbols and recognition. But I do not believe that we should ask other Canadians for such a recognition until we have clarified what we are hoping to obtain from it.

Although it is an important one, I do not believe this debate is the most important thing we can do to improve Quebec and Canada as a whole. For me, the main priority by far is to ensure Canada is part of the solution, not the problem, to the crucial challenge of the 21st century: how to reconcile humanity with the ecological limits of the planet. That is the vision and the plan of action I am proposing to Canadians in order to combine the three pillars of our success: economic prosperity, social justice and environmental sustainability.

Quebecers have better things to do than to see this movie for a fourth time. We should mobilize ourselves to make our country a pathfinder in the 21st century. Let's contribute all our talents, energies and our own culture, as we have always done in the past, when we have had to respond with other Canadians to great challenges.

Thursday threesome

The Michael J. Fox television spots supporting candidates in the American-terms have garnered a ton of media attention in addition to the impact the spots are likely having in the markets where they are being shown as paid ads.

Offal News has already taken a look at one of them and we linked to it earlier.

There are actually three, each one superbly lit, produced, written an performed. Take a look at all three. Notice, among other things that the core message is the same in all three but the way the message is communicated is radically different. They are quiet and relatively low-key, compared to the negative stuff that is almost cliche.

The Missouri spot is pitched very locally to a state full of independently-minded people.

The Maryland spot is another matter, appealing more generally to voters. It ends with a "respectful" call to action.

The Wisconsin gubernatorial spot starts by connecting with local pride: "Wisconsin holds a special place in my heart..."

Notice, as well, that Fox makes some very specific statements intended to counteract Republican attacks pre-emptively. He also links stem cell research to a variety of medical conditions other than his own Parkinsons.

No wonder the Republicans are literally screaming invective and personal hatred at Fox. These spots are compelling. In states where the races are tight, Fox might tip the balance in favour of the Democrats. In other states - even ones not targeted by Fox - the GOP candidates are having severe troubles with voter anger over everything from scandals involving Republican politicians to the war in what some American reporters call "Eye-raq". Given the buzz around these spots, Fox could tip the balance in races other than the ones he has specifcally helped.


Claire McCaskill (D), Missouri senate race



Ben Cardin (D), Maryland senate race



Jim Doyle (D), Wisconsin gubernatorial race

Two to watch Thursdays

Check out the latest from Offal News on political advertising, specifically on Michael J. Fox's 30 in support of a candidate in a Missouri senate race.

Simon gives an excellent overview of the spot and on the basic idea of political advertising, but here's a little thing for you to notice.

How do Missourians pronounce the name of their state? Mike took the time to get it right. All politics is indeed local.

On a totally different topic, there's Andrew Coyne's observations on Michael Ignatieff and his proposal to recognize Quebec as a nation. Take the time to read the whole thing.

And when you're done - those of you who live in the Secret Nation, that is - ponder how much of what Coyne says about Quebec applies equally to the pretentions of some of our local politicians, old and new.

Williams' PCs only 3 points ahead of Rideout's PCs 17 years later

[Revised: corrected poll numbers; image added]

Despite record high public approval ratings and Danny Williams' strong personal popularity, voter support for the Progressive Conservative party in the province remains only three points above the PC party standings in the 1989 general election or on par with the 2003 general election.

That's one of the conclusions from an assessment of the most recent polling results in Newfoundland and Labrador by NTV/Telelink and Corporate Research Associates.

Bond Papers has already questioned the usefulness of media polls, but leaving aside possible issues of sampling methodology and the limited information gleaned from the polls, some conclusions leap up that do not coincide with media reports, Williams' own interpretation and the assessments of the pollsters themselves.

NTV/Telelink surveyed 1,109 voters in Newfoundland and Labrador. In August, CRA polled 412 voters. The comparison results are provided below, adjusted to reflect percentages of total. CRAs results were reported as a percentage of decided voters on the party support question. Margin of error for NTV/Telelink was given as plus or minus 2.9% at the 95th confidence interval while the comparable figure for CRA was 4.8%.

Party Support (NTV/CRA)

PCP 51.1/59.86
LIB 17.3/14.76
NDP 07.5/05.74
Not vote 02.3/01.64
UND 21.7/18.0

n = 1109/412

Both polls showed satisfaction with the Williams administration at approximately 84%. Approximately 74% selected Williams as best choice for premier in both polls.

The Progressive Conservatives under Tom Rideout [left] received 48% of the popular vote, while still going down to defeat in 1989. Danny Williams' Progressive Conservatives received 58.72% of the popular vote in 2003, with 33.19% voting Liberal.

Danny Williams' recent attacks on Ottawa, launched at the party convention in Gander on 14 October coincided with the NTV/Telelink polling period.

NTV characterized the Progressive Conservatives' popularity as rising since a low point in 2004 after a public sector strike. While that is true - relatively speaking - no explanation has been offered as to why the overwhelming satisfaction with the government and with Williams as premier hasn't translated into equally phenomenal voter support.

While CRA has typically been quick to dismiss undecideds as being irrelevant, the results of both the CRA and NTV polls suggest the undecideds are comprised mainly of traditional Liberal supporters who may be dissatisfied with the current state of the party. This is only a possible explanation since neither poll provides any data on the undecideds except that they did not indicate a voting choice.

Speculation that Danny Williams' party might sweep the election in 2003 is also not founded on past performance with comparable voter choices. In 2003, Williams won 34 seats of the 48 seat legislature with 59% of the popular vote. Liberal Clyde Wells won the same number of seats in a 52 seat legislature in 1989 with 47% of the popular vote. Media polls do not provide any reliable geographical data to allow seat-by-seat projections.

Williams flip flops on INCO; blusters with IOC

Danny Williams continued Tuesday with his efforts to brand the province as an erratic and unpredictable place to do business with comments on Iron Ore Company of Canada and INCO's operation at Voisey's Bay.

INCO's new owners - the Brazilian Companhia Vale do Rio Doce - said Tuesday it plans to speed up development of the Voisey's Bay mine. Williams said he favours the accelerated pace of development which would see the company increase its exports of partially processed ore outside the province, something Williams had previously criticized.

On October 19, Williams expressed concern that INCO would never build a smelter-refinery complex at Long Harbour. Williams offered no explanation for his fears which fly in the face of the precise wording of the development agreement with the provincial government and commitments from both INCO and INCO's new owners.

Williams himself had tried to slow INCO's efforts to relocate the smelter project to Long Harbour from the initially proposed site at Argentia. Williams tried to get the federal government to accept an unlimited liability at the Argentia site, something the Harper administration flatly refused.

Williams sudden support for rapid development at Voisey's Bay may be his way of off-setting losses from the failed Hebron agreement in April 2006. Despite his public comments that the Voisey's Bay deal was riddled with loopholes, Williams may be signaling that accelerated exploitation of Voisey's Bay - with or without a smelter-refinery - would produce increased revenue for the provincial treasury.

Voisey's Bay resource revenues would also net Williams a gain under Prime Minister Stephen Harper's proposed equalization reforms. Again despite Williams public criticism of Harper, the proposed reforms would actually improve the province's Equalization take by hiding half of Voisey's Bay revenue from the Equalization formula. Currently, non-renewable resources from projects such as the Labrador nickel mine are fully counted in determining Equalization entitlements.

In other developments, the Premier rejected out-of-hand a proposal by Iron Ore Company of Canada that the province continue to supply the Labrador West iron ore mines with low-cost energy. Williams likened the proposal to the Upper Churchill contract; the 1969 agreement that guarantees low-cost power to Hydro-Quebec is a favourite bogeyman for Williams.

In comments to The Telegram, Williams also raised another favourite bogeyman noting that:

It would be premature to jump out in front of that and lock in to a half-cent energy price so that every single person that comes to the province, if they don't get a half-cent power, they're going to walk away

Williams said the same thing immediately before offering Abitibi Consolidated a power subsidy larger than the provincial treasury's annual tax haul from the former papermakinoperationon at Stephenville. He also rejected out of hand an energy subsidy for Fishery Products International before committing $10 million annually to help keep power costs at the province's remaining papermaking mills lower.

With IOC, though, Williams may be running against a legal issue that may tax the limits of Premier's legal abilities as have several other recent cases.

The Twin Falls plant provided power to Wabush Mines and IOC's operations in western Labrador. The project was developed by BRINCO in partnership with IOC and Wabush Mines. It supplied power to the Upper Churchill construction project but was closed in order to increase efficiency of the larger hydro-electric project.

According to Philip Smith (1975), IOC and Wabush Mines - as partners in Twin Falls Power Corporation with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro - committed "to take or pay for 280,000 horsepower at a price that averaged to 4.32 mills per kilowatt-hour." Any horsepower above that would cost 2 mills. Discussions on the cost of added power for an expansion in the early 1970s proved to be acrimonious.

Nonetheless, IOC and Wabush Mines have a baseline entitlement to 225 megawatts of power from the Upper Churchill project. That's the capacity of the now-moth-balled facility at Twin falls. The companies could also rightfully expect to see additional power at favourable rategivenne that they voluntarily agreed to shut Twin Falls in order to improve the capacity at Churchill Falls.

Where this will come out, no one can say. However, it is pretty clear that Danny Williams has decided to brand the province as a place where doing business has to be as difficult as it can be.

What he said...about Voisey's Bay

The only thing wrong with this post at Offal News - that's the right the one thing wrong - is that there is no picture of Tom Rideout in the godforsaken toque.

Otherwise, Simon Lono is spot-on...yet again.

MacKay announces Canadian troupe deployment

Foreign affairs minister Peter MacKay announced today that Canada will join other NATO countries in a troupe deployment to Afghanistan.

MacKay whose department title is no reference to his reported romantic entanglement with the American Secretary of State, said that Canada will send Cirque to Soleil to Kandahar province as part of a new effort to bring peace and stability to the central Asian nation.

"This is a deployment of troupes that is involved in interesting and important work to provide security for the development of the work that is undertaken," said MacKay.

MacKay said that in addition to the world-renowned acrobatic group, Canada will deploy the Royal Canadian Air Farce (left). The Air Farce will provide cover for the Cirque, bombing Taliban with boring sketches, semi-racist impersonations of "newfies" and a laugh track that remains the only cue to when something funny is being said.

Sources close to the defence department said that Canada rejected a short-term deployment of Trailer Park Boys fearing that the threesome would actually improve Afghan poppy and heroin production.

In related news, Britain said today it would be sending the cast of Ab Fab, the complete collection of "Are you being served?" DVDs and a Punch and Judy show from Basingstoke as part of the entertainers campaign. France is sending the road company of La cage aux folles, while Italy is sending its entire parliament as part of NATO's humour offensive in the remote mountains southeast of Kandahar.

While not officially part of NATO, Australia is said to be considering a deployment of Dame Edna.

In Brussels, senior NATO officials informally requested that Canada check the availability of Newfoundland and Labrador fish minister Tom Rideout (right). NATO planners were impressed with the gales of laughter created by Rideout's recent "fact-finding" tour of European capitals.

A senior NATO officer (left) who spoke on condition of anonymity said: "If this chap could put the Russkies into the fits, he would be devastating anywhere else.

"Put a funny hat on him, you likely would have a sort of political neutron bomb: all coherent thought would be impossible."

The war with Ottawa

With less than a year before the next provincial election, Danny Williams has declared war on Ottawa.

The anti-politician, the guy who bills himself as bringing a New Approach to politics, is relying on the oldest of old provincial political ploys to pump up his already strong popular support.

When all else fails declare war on the evil occupying government called Ottawa.

Now before anyone starts pointing to the tradition in Newfoundland and Labrador since Confederation, let's make it clear. Smallwood rowed with Ottawa over Term 29 in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Most of the time though, Smallwood had a pretty good relationship with the feds. Ditto Frank Moores..

Even Peckford has his good moments, but he was the first guy who made fighting Ottawa part of his strategic plan.

Clyde Wells had his share of disagreements but he also agreed with the feds on many files. Tobin did too. Roger grimes tried to make Ottawa the evil demon of his dreams, but it took Danny Williams to bring the demagogic rhetoric to Peckfordian levels and garner his tremendous political success solely as a result of fighting with foreigners.

Heck, Williams has raised suspicion of outsiders to an artform. Right now, Danny Williams is vying with Enver Hoxha for Xenophobe of the Century.

[Historical sidebar: Aficionados of dictatorship will recall Hoxha is the guy who pulled a pistol from his desk drawer one day during a meeting with a political rival and shot the guy dead on the spot. The official story is that Mehmet Shehu committed suicide. A lifelong Stalinist, Hoxha was a big fan of state control of everything.]

That said, there is nothing like a war with Ottawa to get the juices flowing in some people, especially the crowd on radio call-in shows who are Williams' key demographic. It can be pretty smart politics for the short-term, but there are more and more people who are privately questioning the Dan-trum approach to life.

In the week and a bit since the Premier kicked the prime Minister squarely in the goolies for something Stephen Harper hasn't even done yet, Williams' administration has issued anti-Ottawa news releases like the following:

1. October 23, 2006: Federal Government to Eliminate Workplace Equity Office Service to be Delivered From Montreal

In a decision that will have a negative impact on some of this country's most vulnerable people and regions, the federal government is closing the Workplace Equity Office in Newfoundland and Labrador and moving the service to Montreal. Offices will also be shut down in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

"This latest salvo from the federal government tells me very clearly that this government appears to have little appreciation for the struggles of women, people with disabilities, visible minorities and Aboriginal people to gain an equal foothold in society," said The Honourable Joan Burke, Minister Responsible for the Status of Women and Minister of Education.

2. October 18, 2006: Ottawa denies request for indemnity for INCO

The federal government has denied the province's request for indemnity for Inco to allow for construction of a commercial processing facility to proceed at Argentia.

"We have taken every reasonable step to ensure that the facility remains in Argentia," said the Honourable Kathy Dunderdale, Minister of Natural Resources. "However, with this latest refusal of the federal government to provide the company with an indemnity, it appears as though we have limited options available."

3. October 17, 2006: National Person's Day Emphasizes Need for Federal Government to Rethink Funding Cuts

"This is an opportune time for the federal government to reflect on their recent decision to cut funding to Status of Women Canada and for women and men in our province and across Canada to send a strong message to Ottawa that these cuts and the elimination of funding for advocacy work may be detrimental to advancing women's issues."

Can you hear me now?

A fire at the local telephone headquarters knocked out internet, telephone, cellular and banking services in Newfoundland and Labrador last Friday night.

The official time is being given as 22:20 hours (10:20 pm) but your humble e-scribbler had it pegged earlier, like say around 22:05. That's when he noticed downloads slowing.

The whole incident points up some problems that need to be addressed.

For example, the back-up systems didn't cut in and it took the service provider about six hours to get most functionality restored.

That shouldn't happen.

For a second example, consider that provincial emergency management boss Fred Hollett was in Port aux Basques on the province's west coast and had to dial 911 from his hotel room to get police headquarters in Corner Brook.

Why couldn't he just go to the local emergency headquarters, like say the fire department, and contact the outside world from their comms system?

For a third f'rinstance, Aliant isn't the only service provider. Did their problem effectively take everyone else out as well?

If the answer is yes, then Al Queda will take note, let alone the local chapter of the Fogo Liberation Front.

All of this will no doubt distract Hollett from another glaring shortcoming of his emergency response system: the complete lack of a province-wide emergency response strategic plan.

So far that one has taken the five years since 9/11 and counting.

Still no plan.

Not since Normandy

Canadian Forces will be moving people out of their existing occupations and into the infantry in an effort to relieve the pressure of rotations in Afghanistan.

The process- known as re-roling - is expected to provide extra soldiers so that the time frame between return deployments to Afghanistan will be longer than six months.

Two quick observations:

1. This is the first time since Normandy that a shortage of recruits has led to stuffing people from other military trades into the infantry. Back then the problem was caused by a combination of heavy casualties and a shortage of recruits. In this instance it is caused by a shortage of recruits.

2. This leads to the second observation, namely that the Conservative's promise in the last election to put battalions in every nook and cranny of the country was - as Bond Papers said at the time - sheer bunk.

Goose Bay take note.

3. As a last point, people should also notice that the move to re-roling also sends a powerful message about the current state of the reserve force and/or the federal government's unwillingness to use its legal powers to draw on more reserve soldiers to fulfill its military obligations.

Everyone take note of that one.

You are Sir Charles Phantom, the notorious Litton

From the "Not my dog" department, comes this example of Peter MacKay [Left, not exactly as illustrated] and his fractured French recently in the House of Commons.

The foreign affairs minister apparently couldn't grasp the meaning of a question from Bloq Quebecois member Vivian Barbot.

Hilarity ensued.

Mrs. Vivian Barbot (Papineau, BQ):

Mr. Speaker, the Minister of Canadian Heritage answered with a firm "no" when asked if cuts had been made to theatre and dance troupes. Yet, those troupes are telling us otherwise, that they have in fact suffered cuts.

Will the Minister of Foreign Affairs please tell us whether or not cuts have been made to these troupes?

[English]

Hon. Peter MacKay (Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, CPC):

Mr. Speaker, obviously, we are involved in this with 36 other countries. This is a deployment of troops that is involved in interesting and important work to provide security for the development of the work that is undertaken. If the member wants to be a little more specific, perhaps she could provide us with that information.

[Translation]

Mr. Maka Kotto (Saint-Lambert, BQ):

Mr. Speaker, the question was not about military troops. It was about theatre, dance and music troupes.

I ask the question again: will the cuts to the public diplomacy fund affect the international tours of dance, music and theatre troupes, yes or no?

...

Thank Heavens no one asked about minkeys.

You know, the Chimpanzee minkeys.

Or the behms.

The exploding kind of behms.