If someone needed secure communications systems, automated intelligence gathering or other things normally associated with the phrase "electronic warfare", it would logical to call on a company called Electronic Warfare Associates.
But if you needed someone to assess the financial viability and other similar aspects of a civilian fibre-optic cable network proposal, why would get a bunch of guys who are security experts?
It must make sense to Danny Williams but for the rest of us - including those of us familiar with defence and security issues - we are left scratching our heads. Editorial opinion seems to be curious about the Premier's logic as well. Here's an example from the hometown newspaper of the province's business minister.
Perhaps if the Premier posted the whole report to the government website, we might get a better idea of where his head is.
21 November 2006
Blogger trial tests definition of journalist
New Brunswick blogger Charles LeBlanc, who describes himself as an Internet journalist, is on trial for obstructing police during a demonstration in Saint John last June.
LeBlanc's defence is based, in part, on his contention that he is a journalist legitimately entitled to cover the event. The issue is a new one for Canada where bloggers function in an admittedly grey area of the laws affecting reporters. In California, one judge ruled in 2005 that a blogger was not a journalist and therefore was obliged to reveal sources used for a posting.
LeBlanc was taking pictures for his blog when he was arrested. According to a CBC news story posted on LeBlanc's site, Police Sergeant John Parks testified he saw LeBlanc approach the officer from behind and considered him a protester since he wasn't dressed in business attire as were other journalists. Parks said he cautioned LeBlanc to leave the scene or risk arrest.
Park and police constable Tanya Lawlor arrested LeBlanc, despite LeBlanc's repeated statements at the time that he was reporting on the protest. Park seized LeBlanc's digital camera and deleted a photograph of the officer.
In June, LeBlanc was barred from attending at the New Brunswick legislature for allegedly unacceptable behaviour in the legislature precincts. LeBlanc subsequently interviewed New Brunwick Premier Shawn Graham following Graham's swearing in.
LeBlanc, who receives social assistance and uses a digital camera donated by an anonymous supporter, has become fixture at the New Brunswick legislature as he interviews politicians and senior bureaucrats for his blog.
LeBlanc's defence is based, in part, on his contention that he is a journalist legitimately entitled to cover the event. The issue is a new one for Canada where bloggers function in an admittedly grey area of the laws affecting reporters. In California, one judge ruled in 2005 that a blogger was not a journalist and therefore was obliged to reveal sources used for a posting.
LeBlanc was taking pictures for his blog when he was arrested. According to a CBC news story posted on LeBlanc's site, Police Sergeant John Parks testified he saw LeBlanc approach the officer from behind and considered him a protester since he wasn't dressed in business attire as were other journalists. Parks said he cautioned LeBlanc to leave the scene or risk arrest.
Park and police constable Tanya Lawlor arrested LeBlanc, despite LeBlanc's repeated statements at the time that he was reporting on the protest. Park seized LeBlanc's digital camera and deleted a photograph of the officer.
After the incident, Lawlor said she looked up LeBlanc's blog on the internet, and found pictures of herself brandishing a baton to ward off protesters, set to the song Kung Fu Fighting.Other witness, including journalists from mainstream media, contend LeBlanc was taking pictures at the time of his arrest.
She said it made her feel humiliated and demoralized.
In June, LeBlanc was barred from attending at the New Brunswick legislature for allegedly unacceptable behaviour in the legislature precincts. LeBlanc subsequently interviewed New Brunwick Premier Shawn Graham following Graham's swearing in.
LeBlanc, who receives social assistance and uses a digital camera donated by an anonymous supporter, has become fixture at the New Brunswick legislature as he interviews politicians and senior bureaucrats for his blog.
Quebec elections officer investigates political finance allegations
Quebec's chief electoral officer is investigating a complaint that a cabinet minister's senior aide solicited political donations on government time.
Diane Bougie has admitted to selling 25 $1,000 tickets to a fund-raising reception on behalf of her boss, health minister Philippe Couillard, while she worked for Couillard in 2003.
Diane Bougie has admitted to selling 25 $1,000 tickets to a fund-raising reception on behalf of her boss, health minister Philippe Couillard, while she worked for Couillard in 2003.
NS debates election finance reform
Nova Scotia New Democrats are filibustering a bill on election finance reform currently being debated in the Nova Scotia legislature.
Proposed reforms would limit donations to political parties to a maximum of $5, 000 per year for individuals and organizations. They would outlaw donations from outside the province.
Nova Scotia New Democrats are proposing a $1,000 per year cap, using the federal electoral finance laws as a model.
Proposed reforms would limit donations to political parties to a maximum of $5, 000 per year for individuals and organizations. They would outlaw donations from outside the province.
Nova Scotia New Democrats are proposing a $1,000 per year cap, using the federal electoral finance laws as a model.
20 November 2006
Poll alert
If past practice holds, Corporate Research Associates is currently in the field conducting its omnibus poll for the fourth quarter of 2006.
The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is a CRA omnibus client and therefore knows the dates during which data is collected.
Since the House of Assembly began its fall sitting on Monday, 20 November, it will be difficult to separate normal government communications while the House is in session from any specific poll-goosing activity.
Last August, Bond Papers published a chart of polling periods and government news release activity. It shows a correlation between a spike in news release volume and polling periods.
The chart was included in a three part series on the provincial government and its apparent efforts to influnce poll outcomes.
The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is a CRA omnibus client and therefore knows the dates during which data is collected.
Since the House of Assembly began its fall sitting on Monday, 20 November, it will be difficult to separate normal government communications while the House is in session from any specific poll-goosing activity.
Last August, Bond Papers published a chart of polling periods and government news release activity. It shows a correlation between a spike in news release volume and polling periods.The chart was included in a three part series on the provincial government and its apparent efforts to influnce poll outcomes.
Lobbyist registration
"We do have probably the best legislation in the country put in place in order to make sure things are done properly," Williams said.In the CBC story quoted above, Premier Danny Williams was talking about the provincial lobbyist registration legislation in the midst of accusations that representatives of Persona, Rogers and MTS Allstream should have registered as lobbyist in relation to the fibre deal.
The federal government and five provincial jurisdictions have legislation dealing with lobbyists, that is with people who communicate with government officials on behalf of clients or companies and organizations in order to influence government decisions.
All describe lobbyists and the act of lobbying in similar terms. It's pretty clear that representatives of those companies were engaged in lobbying the provincial government about the deal. Their activity fits any of the definitions of lobbying used in any jurisdiction.
The question comes around the requirement to register as a lobbyist and therefore make the lobbying activity a matter of public record.
Under the Newfoundland and Labrador law, an in-house lobbyist - someone employed full-time by a company - only has to register if 20% or more of his or her time is spent lobbying.
Think about it.
Someone working a 40 hour week could lobby, but he or she wouldn't have to register and thereby publicly disclose their activity unless they spent more than 8 hours a week lobbying. Someone could lobby government for up to a full day each week in perpetuity and never have to publicly disclose the lobbying. A senior executive working more hours could spend even more time each week lobbying and keep the whole thing from public scrutiny.
Of the six jurisdictions across Canada with lobbyist registration laws, only Newfoundland and Labrador makes it possible to lobby as though there was no legislation at all.
The companies and organizations that have registered their in-house lobbyists either exceed the 20% rule or they have opted to register in order to live up to the spirit and intention of the lobbyist registry. That is, they comply with the idea that people lobbying government should publicly disclose their activities.
Newfoundland and Labrador's lobbyist registration law ensures things are done properly.
The only question is what things we are talking about.
Certainly it doesn't necessarily mean that all lobbying is publicly registered, as it would be in just about all the five other provinces and the federal government that have laws governing lobbying.
All is right as right can be!
Our great Mikado, virtuous man,When he to rule our land began,
Resolved to try
A plan whereby
Young men might best be steadied.
So he decreed, in words succinct,
That all who flirted, leered or winked
(Unless connubially linked),
Should forthwith be beheaded,
Beheaded, beheaded,
Should forthwith be beheaded.
And I expect you'll all agree
That he was right to so decree.
And I am right,
And you are right,
And all is right as right can be!
19 November 2006
How many toes ya got left?
Kathy Goudie, the Tory member of the legislature for Humber Valley, is in a bit of political pickle.
Goudie, a registered nurse, has been working out of the province in order to retain her nursing license. Like many professionals, a registered nurse must practice her profession for a certain number of hours within a certain period of time in order to be considered actively practicing.
According to the Telegram, Goudie has been working - at least some of the time - at the Baffin regional hospital in Iqaluit. The Telegram also notes that Goudie was in the Northwest Territories legislature in Yellowknife on October 26. The Telegram knew she was out of the province because Goudie's presence in the visitors' gallery was recognized by the speaker of the territorial legislature.
Again, according to the Telegram, Goudie's absence from the province was noted in her district, in part because she participated in a meeting on the Nicholsville bridge by teleconference from somewhere the Great White North.
On the face of it, Goudie's explanation - that she was working to retain her professional license - is perfectly valid. No reasonable person would object. While the Telegram story notes the wage differential between this province and the Northwest Territories, and that there are casual nursing jobs available in her own district, there are convincing reasons for Goudie not to work in this province.
Her position as a member of the government caucus makes it extremely difficult if not impossible for her potential co-workers and patients to look past her political involvement as she practices her profession. To make it even more plain, consider that for most of the past three years, nurses have been in a wage dispute with the government administration Goudie supports.
Goudie's circumstances make it almost impossible for her to work anywhere in this province. She simply has too many potential problems that would affect her relationships with her co-workers, patients and hospital administrators. Any reasonable person would appreciate those circumstances and support her choice to work in another province for the limited number of hours needed to retain her professional credentials.
Unfortunately for Goudie, that wasn't the way she approached media inquires. When the telegram called her, she stated that what she did on her vacation time was her own business. She stonewalled. The Telegram quotes her as saying, "I'm sorry, when I go on my vacation, what I do on my vacation is my vacation. If and when I do go away and if and when I do go nursing, I'll call you."
This is a classic case of someone shooting himself or herself in the foot.
Goudie would have known or should have known that her working outside the province might be an issue for some people. At some point, the media were likely to get the story and ask her about it. Had she answered straightforwardly, they would have or should have reported - equally straightforwardly what her response was.
By stonewalling or obfuscating, Goudie aroused suspicion on the part of the reporter involved. He dug deeper and came with some other information. Now the whole thing looks pretty damaging for Goudie. Her response fueled suspicion and the subsequent media stories leave her in a spot where her explanation - once finally revealed - just isn't really as credible as it should be.
Goudie will likely be faced with some tough media questioning when the provincial legislature re-opens on Monday. She will certainly find herself criticized, and supported, on the province's talk radio shows. All of that makes her job as a member of the legislature difficult and it shouldn't be.
In short, Goudie shot herself in the foot on this one not by working outside the province but by giving a boneheaded media response that any public relations person - let alone an experienced, competent one - would have counseled her against.
All she can do now is tough it out, stick to her line and hope that the whole thing blows over. If she winds up with other details being disclosed, then she will lose another toe or toes.
And hey, it's not like the Telegram story is not without its own inconsistencies.
For example, the Baffin hospital is in Iqaluit, Nunavut. As the Telegram acknowledged, while they got through to a voice mail for a Kathy Goudie, they couldn't confirm they had the right person.
The Northwest Territories, though, is another region entirely with its own legislature. The Nunavut legislature opens on Tuesday. I know this because Offal New's Simon Lono is headed back to Baffin Island to edit and produce the territorial legislature's edition of Hansard. Linking the two places - Iqaluit and Yellowknife - is like saying Goudie worked in St. John's but she turned up in the Alberta legislature. Goudie may well have been in Yellowknife on other business.
The problem for Goudie, though, is that her initial response was to avoid answering even the simplest questions.
She's down one toe. Depending on how she handles the issue over the next couple of days, she might get off with a bandaid. But if the Telegram or other news media find out she has some major position in Iqaluit, the distance between Yellowknife and the Nunavut capital won't spare another toe or two from the self-inflicted shotgun blast to her credibility.
How she comes out of it all politically is down to a simple matter of how quickly she discloses all the relevant information...
or how many toes she has left.
Goudie, a registered nurse, has been working out of the province in order to retain her nursing license. Like many professionals, a registered nurse must practice her profession for a certain number of hours within a certain period of time in order to be considered actively practicing.
According to the Telegram, Goudie has been working - at least some of the time - at the Baffin regional hospital in Iqaluit. The Telegram also notes that Goudie was in the Northwest Territories legislature in Yellowknife on October 26. The Telegram knew she was out of the province because Goudie's presence in the visitors' gallery was recognized by the speaker of the territorial legislature.
Again, according to the Telegram, Goudie's absence from the province was noted in her district, in part because she participated in a meeting on the Nicholsville bridge by teleconference from somewhere the Great White North.
On the face of it, Goudie's explanation - that she was working to retain her professional license - is perfectly valid. No reasonable person would object. While the Telegram story notes the wage differential between this province and the Northwest Territories, and that there are casual nursing jobs available in her own district, there are convincing reasons for Goudie not to work in this province.
Her position as a member of the government caucus makes it extremely difficult if not impossible for her potential co-workers and patients to look past her political involvement as she practices her profession. To make it even more plain, consider that for most of the past three years, nurses have been in a wage dispute with the government administration Goudie supports.
Goudie's circumstances make it almost impossible for her to work anywhere in this province. She simply has too many potential problems that would affect her relationships with her co-workers, patients and hospital administrators. Any reasonable person would appreciate those circumstances and support her choice to work in another province for the limited number of hours needed to retain her professional credentials.
Unfortunately for Goudie, that wasn't the way she approached media inquires. When the telegram called her, she stated that what she did on her vacation time was her own business. She stonewalled. The Telegram quotes her as saying, "I'm sorry, when I go on my vacation, what I do on my vacation is my vacation. If and when I do go away and if and when I do go nursing, I'll call you."
This is a classic case of someone shooting himself or herself in the foot.
Goudie would have known or should have known that her working outside the province might be an issue for some people. At some point, the media were likely to get the story and ask her about it. Had she answered straightforwardly, they would have or should have reported - equally straightforwardly what her response was.
By stonewalling or obfuscating, Goudie aroused suspicion on the part of the reporter involved. He dug deeper and came with some other information. Now the whole thing looks pretty damaging for Goudie. Her response fueled suspicion and the subsequent media stories leave her in a spot where her explanation - once finally revealed - just isn't really as credible as it should be.
Goudie will likely be faced with some tough media questioning when the provincial legislature re-opens on Monday. She will certainly find herself criticized, and supported, on the province's talk radio shows. All of that makes her job as a member of the legislature difficult and it shouldn't be.
In short, Goudie shot herself in the foot on this one not by working outside the province but by giving a boneheaded media response that any public relations person - let alone an experienced, competent one - would have counseled her against.
All she can do now is tough it out, stick to her line and hope that the whole thing blows over. If she winds up with other details being disclosed, then she will lose another toe or toes.
And hey, it's not like the Telegram story is not without its own inconsistencies.
For example, the Baffin hospital is in Iqaluit, Nunavut. As the Telegram acknowledged, while they got through to a voice mail for a Kathy Goudie, they couldn't confirm they had the right person.
The Northwest Territories, though, is another region entirely with its own legislature. The Nunavut legislature opens on Tuesday. I know this because Offal New's Simon Lono is headed back to Baffin Island to edit and produce the territorial legislature's edition of Hansard. Linking the two places - Iqaluit and Yellowknife - is like saying Goudie worked in St. John's but she turned up in the Alberta legislature. Goudie may well have been in Yellowknife on other business.
The problem for Goudie, though, is that her initial response was to avoid answering even the simplest questions.
She's down one toe. Depending on how she handles the issue over the next couple of days, she might get off with a bandaid. But if the Telegram or other news media find out she has some major position in Iqaluit, the distance between Yellowknife and the Nunavut capital won't spare another toe or two from the self-inflicted shotgun blast to her credibility.
How she comes out of it all politically is down to a simple matter of how quickly she discloses all the relevant information...
or how many toes she has left.
18 November 2006
Too cute by half
Dean MacDonald's defence of his lobbying to gain a $15 million government buy-in for his cable deal doesn't hold water.
Here's the Offal News take on it.
Here's the Offal News take on it.
17 November 2006
When is lobbying not lobbying?
Apparently Premier Danny Williams does not consider that representatives of Persona, Rogers (TSX:RCI) and MTS Allstream were engaged in lobbying the provincial government on what ultimately became the GRAP fibre deal.
For the record, here are some extracts from Danny Williams' own Lobbyist Registration Act:
2 (1)...
(c) "lobby" means to communicate with a public-office holder for remuneration or other gain, reward or benefit, in an attempt to influence
(i) the development of any legislative proposal by the government of the province or by a member of the House of Assembly,
(ii) the introduction of any bill or resolution in the House of Assembly or the passage, defeat or amendment of any bill or resolution that is before the House of Assembly,
(iii) the making, amendment or repeal of any subordinate legislation as defined in the Statutes and Subordinate Legislation Act ,
(iv) the development, amendment or termination of any policy or program of the government of the province,
(v) a decision by the Executive Council to transfer from the Crown for consideration all or part of, or any interest in or asset of, any business, enterprise or institution that provides goods or services to the Crown or to the public,
(vi) a decision by the Executive Council, a committee of the Executive Council or a minister of the Crown to have the private sector instead of the Crown provide goods or services to the Crown,
(vii) the awarding of any grant, contribution or other financial benefit by or on behalf of the Crown,
(viii) the awarding of any contract by or on behalf of the Crown,
(ix) arranging a meeting between a public-office holder and any other person,
(x) public-office holders relating to the procurement of goods and services,
(xi) public-office holders relating to the terms of a tender or request for proposals or other procurement solicitation prior to the awarding of that tender or the acceptance of the request for proposals or other procurement solicitation,
(xii) public-office holders relating to the terms of a contract, the choice of a contractor, or the administration, implementation or enforcement of a contract, or
(xiii) the appointment of any public official;
For the record, here are some extracts from Danny Williams' own Lobbyist Registration Act:
2 (1)...
(c) "lobby" means to communicate with a public-office holder for remuneration or other gain, reward or benefit, in an attempt to influence
(i) the development of any legislative proposal by the government of the province or by a member of the House of Assembly,
(ii) the introduction of any bill or resolution in the House of Assembly or the passage, defeat or amendment of any bill or resolution that is before the House of Assembly,
(iii) the making, amendment or repeal of any subordinate legislation as defined in the Statutes and Subordinate Legislation Act ,
(iv) the development, amendment or termination of any policy or program of the government of the province,
(v) a decision by the Executive Council to transfer from the Crown for consideration all or part of, or any interest in or asset of, any business, enterprise or institution that provides goods or services to the Crown or to the public,
(vi) a decision by the Executive Council, a committee of the Executive Council or a minister of the Crown to have the private sector instead of the Crown provide goods or services to the Crown,
(vii) the awarding of any grant, contribution or other financial benefit by or on behalf of the Crown,
(viii) the awarding of any contract by or on behalf of the Crown,
(ix) arranging a meeting between a public-office holder and any other person,
(x) public-office holders relating to the procurement of goods and services,
(xi) public-office holders relating to the terms of a tender or request for proposals or other procurement solicitation prior to the awarding of that tender or the acceptance of the request for proposals or other procurement solicitation,
(xii) public-office holders relating to the terms of a contract, the choice of a contractor, or the administration, implementation or enforcement of a contract, or
(xiii) the appointment of any public official;
Husky reserves boosted
Husky Energy (TSX:HSE) announced Thursday the discovery of an additional 190 million barrels of recoverable crude in the White Rose field.
Memorial University economist Wade Locke told a Harris Centre symposium on Wednesday, White Rose was the cheapest of the three fields to bring on stream. Early pay off of development costs will move the White Rose field to a higher royalty tier for the provincial government than it current receives.
Husky's announcement effectively prolongs the period in which the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador will receive the higher tier - 30% - royalties on each barrel of crude produced.
Memorial University economist Wade Locke told a Harris Centre symposium on Wednesday, White Rose was the cheapest of the three fields to bring on stream. Early pay off of development costs will move the White Rose field to a higher royalty tier for the provincial government than it current receives.
Husky's announcement effectively prolongs the period in which the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador will receive the higher tier - 30% - royalties on each barrel of crude produced.
Ok. We told ya so.
A day after announcing a potential deficit of $39.8 million, finance minister Loyola "Rain Man" Sullivan admits the province's current account budget will likely be in the black come the spring.
Don't say Bond Papers didn't cast doubts about Sullivan's little announcement here and here.
In the meantime, ponder as well the complete collapse of provincial government communications.
First, there was the anti-Aliant tirades by Danny Williams trying to defend the GRAP fibre fiasco.
Now we have a finance minister talking about puny deficitt and then at the same time saying that in six months the whole deficit will probably be gone.
Rather than planning legislation to outlaw government budget deficits, Sullivan should consider passing a law requiring finance ministers to be straight with the people of the province about how he is managing their money.
Oh wait. There's already accountability and transparency legislation.
Perhaps we should start calling Sullivan "Mr. Bumble".
After all, both seem to think the law is a ass.
Don't say Bond Papers didn't cast doubts about Sullivan's little announcement here and here.
In the meantime, ponder as well the complete collapse of provincial government communications.
First, there was the anti-Aliant tirades by Danny Williams trying to defend the GRAP fibre fiasco.
Now we have a finance minister talking about puny deficitt and then at the same time saying that in six months the whole deficit will probably be gone.
Rather than planning legislation to outlaw government budget deficits, Sullivan should consider passing a law requiring finance ministers to be straight with the people of the province about how he is managing their money.
Oh wait. There's already accountability and transparency legislation.
Perhaps we should start calling Sullivan "Mr. Bumble".After all, both seem to think the law is a ass.
Isn't it ironic?
Which company sponsored Danny Williams' speech to the Empire Club in Toronto last year in which the Premier celebrated his triumph over the federal government?
Would the same company do it again knowing that with Danny Williams and all things cable...this time, it's personal.
Heck, what am I saying?
With Danny, it's always personal.
The guy who took his lunch money in Grade Three is likely in for a s**t-knocking any day now. Teams have been out searching for the guy for years.
Those British snobs who looked down on him at Oxford as being just another knobby little colonial who got into the school on a rich man's favour, rather than his ability?
One day, buddy. One day. You mark my words. When you least expect it.
Nigel. Nigel you little limey f**k.
He knows where live.
Watch your back, buddy.
'Til the cows come home.
Make The Troubles look like a celebration.
Oh yeah.
Would the same company do it again knowing that with Danny Williams and all things cable...this time, it's personal.
Heck, what am I saying?
With Danny, it's always personal.
The guy who took his lunch money in Grade Three is likely in for a s**t-knocking any day now. Teams have been out searching for the guy for years.
Those British snobs who looked down on him at Oxford as being just another knobby little colonial who got into the school on a rich man's favour, rather than his ability?
One day, buddy. One day. You mark my words. When you least expect it.
Nigel. Nigel you little limey f**k.
He knows where live.
Watch your back, buddy.
'Til the cows come home.
Make The Troubles look like a celebration.
Oh yeah.
16 November 2006
Not quite we told ya so...
but close.
The current account deficit morphed from $90 million [a high mentioned by CBC's Here and Now on Thursday] down to $60 million and was officially announced at:
$39.8 million.
Bond Papers called the whole mid-year update an effort in political demand management.
We still predict the provincial government will be in the black on current and capital account by year-end.
After all, by the same standard Loyola Sullivan used in Thursday announcement, he finished up last year with a surplus of $524 million.
Find someone else who has consistently reported that, Sullivan included.
The current account deficit morphed from $90 million [a high mentioned by CBC's Here and Now on Thursday] down to $60 million and was officially announced at:
$39.8 million.
Bond Papers called the whole mid-year update an effort in political demand management.
We still predict the provincial government will be in the black on current and capital account by year-end.
After all, by the same standard Loyola Sullivan used in Thursday announcement, he finished up last year with a surplus of $524 million.
Find someone else who has consistently reported that, Sullivan included.
Spy detained
Canadian authorities arrested a man in Montreal yesterday using the identity Paul William Hampel and detained him under a security certificate.
Hampel was using a time-honoured espionage technique of planting agents under the identities of real people. Hampel will likely turn out to be the name of someone who is approximately the same age general description as the individual under arrest. The real Hampel likely died as a child. In espionage jargon, Hampel would be described as an "illegal".
Illegals were a favourite technique of the Komitet Gosudarstvennoi Bezopasnosti [KGB; Committee for State Security] and its successor, the Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki [SVR; Foreign Intelligence Service]. Sometimes, the illegals try to enter a country legally after being caught.
During the Cold War, KGB sometimes used St. John's as a port to insert illegals.
Hampel was using a time-honoured espionage technique of planting agents under the identities of real people. Hampel will likely turn out to be the name of someone who is approximately the same age general description as the individual under arrest. The real Hampel likely died as a child. In espionage jargon, Hampel would be described as an "illegal".
Illegals were a favourite technique of the Komitet Gosudarstvennoi Bezopasnosti [KGB; Committee for State Security] and its successor, the Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki [SVR; Foreign Intelligence Service]. Sometimes, the illegals try to enter a country legally after being caught.
During the Cold War, KGB sometimes used St. John's as a port to insert illegals.
Despair for civilization itself
Ponder the fate of society as the glorious language of Shakespeare is translated for a modern generation...here.
15 November 2006
Separated at birth
Shawn Skinner [left], parliamentary secretary to Premier Danny Williams and vice-chairman of the House of Assembly's Public Accounts Committee needs a lesson in parliamentary procudre.Less than 24 hours after Premier Williams said he would welcome a review of the GRAP fibreoptics deal by the PAC and the Auditor General, Skinner and the three other government members on the committee voted down a motion by the Liberals on the committee to do just that.
Skinner's explanation is that the Liberals added the public hearings at the last minute.
As vocm.com put it: "Skinner says that's not the way things work...".
Well, it's not the way if Skinner hopes to turn his current position into a cabinet seat.
If the government members, who make up the PAC majority, had simply amended the motion, the whole thing would have carried on consistent with the Premier's stated commitment. The entire affair would have proceeded according to what Skinner says is the route: AG report first and then hearings if necessary.
Instead, Skinner led his fellow Tories into handing the opposition a gift richer than their wildest dreams: the Premier's assistant in the legislature doing exactly opposite to what the Premier himself said publicly he would welcome.
Only Homer Simpson could have killed his own career with greater aplomb.
Monge
The French naval vessel Monge [left] is in port in St. John's.The large white vessel with its array of antennae has attracted public attention, but there seems to be some confusion over what the ship does.
The Monge is a missile-instrumentation vessel.
It is used to collect data on missile test launches related to the development of France's nuclear force de dissuasion.
Own goal!
At the end of his usual guest stint on CBC ratio's Radio Noon, Carl Wells teased Premier Danny Williams' appearance on Here and Now on Tuesday talking about the fibreoptic deal controversy.
That plus a little analysis of Williams' usual media behaviour suggested that the controversy was something Williams felt was so serious he had to make an effort to head to the studios he doesn't usually visit personally.
Little could anyone expect that Williams' defense of the highly controversial deal would not only repeat the same hollow rationales but also add a few new wrinkles to the story.
Williams' appearance - both on NTV and CBC - was a bit of an own goal. That's the phrase security forces in Northern Ireland used to use during The Troubles to describe a plan that backfired. Like the IRA bombmaker who liked to store nitrogen-based fertilizer on the concrete floor of his garage and shift it around with a metal shovel.
They never did find the bomber.
or the shovel.
or most of the garage, for that matter.
Now Williams didn't blow himself to smithereens, but he failed to demolish the criticisms of the deal.
The fundamental problems in the government's justification of the deal are well known by now.
They include:
1. A failure to explain the reason why public money is invested in the project.
2. A failure to explain - in any detail - the value to the provincial government of acquiring fibreoptic cables. The provincial government is supposed to have a telecom strategy that will, among other things, see government's purchasing power as the largest telecom customer in the province to lower the cost of government-related telecom to the taxpayer.
3. The contradictions between versions of the story at different times.
4. Questions about the relationship between Danny and the proponents of the deal.
What the Premier did was:
1. Continue the vague benefit claims with words like "tremendous" but nothing in the way of concrete examples. Saying that third parties like Memorial University were spending between 10 and 100 times more than if they were located on the mainland doesn't give specific examples. Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are used to paying more for goods and services because, after all, they live on an island with a population of 500,000 people. Paying more ain't a surprise.
2. Refer vaguely to potential government savings - considering health care, educational and other services - that "could be" as much as $500 million over time.
Again with the vagueness. If the business plan accompanying the deal gave examples, government would use them. Concrete examples are the easiest way to persuade people
of a position: do this and this specific good thing will result.
Savings that "could be" $500 million over an unspecified time period, could also be monumental losses over the same time frame or a shorter one.
Danny's vagueness suggests that there is fact was no business plan, nor was there a detailed cost/benefit analysis.
After all, if a $15 million investment would reduce government telecom costs by a measurable amount each year for 10 years and would produce a measurable drop in research bandwidth, they could use those numbers. It's how businesses make decisions. It's called return on investment. Spend $100 bucks and save $10 bucks a year for 10 years. Spend $100 bucks and boost sales by $1000 bucks. Either one makes sense and even the most dense Rain Man in radio land can see the sense in simple numbers explained simply.
Williams' vagueness reinforces the facetious suggestion this deal was done on the golf course and that rest has been an exercise in finding excuses and rationalizations. There was no business plan. There is no case. Danny is making it up as he goes along.
It's hard to come to any other conclusion.
3. Continued contradictions and lame arguments. Williams now claims credit for rejecting the proposal the first time out of concerns about perceptions. Later he said the thing is "squeaky clean". These two thoughts can live in the same space and they remain one of the basic contradictions in the entire story.
If the deal smelled a bit at the outset, it was not rendered less stinky by waiting.
The whole thing remains clouded by suspicion especially when the Premier tells the NTV audience that Dean Macdonald and Ken Marshall "worked for me before". That little piece of half-truth has already been demolished but that the Premier keeps going back to such a weak position suggests he simply doesn't have a stronger one.
As if that wasn't enough, though Danny Williams compared this deal to a recent investment with Cooke Aquaculture adding that the whole controversy in the fibre deal seems to be a case of "attacking our own".
That's even lamer than some of the other positions.
For starters, the provincial government dropped $10 million into the Cooke project against the private sector investment of $135 million - about 7.5%. The GRAP deal involves government spending 28% on one portion of the project and dropping provincial cash in another phase of the same overall project.
Then there's the difference between the Cooke enterprise and the proponents of the recent deal. The one involving proportionately more government cash involves the Premier's former business partners and two people he appointed to the board of the provincial hydro corporation.
And if you are still paying attention, Cooke Aquaculture is a New Brunswick-based, family-owned operation. Rogers and MTS Allstream are just like Aliant: big companies with deep pockets, headquartered far, far west of Port aux Basques. [Revised: persona headquarters is in St. John's.]
Need we go on?
From a public relations perspective, announcing a deal like this should be very simple. You simply walk through the decision-making rationale, in summary. Here's the situation; these are the issues. Here's the decision. We had a problem with one aspect; here's how we tackled it according to our values of openness and transparency.
That should form a logical sequence. Since the argument persuaded the organization to take this or that action, a summary version of the same thing should persuade others.
When someone uses vague language, contradictory arguments and irrelevant side issues, people don't find that inherently persuasive. In fact, they start to look on the whole exercise a bit like the guy moving fertilizer around on a concrete floor with a metal shovel.
It might not have blown up in his face this time, but odds are good there will be a big bang sometime very soon.
Rather than support the endeavour, people are more apt to move to a safe distance. They can still see the show to come, but not be harmed by it themselves.
That plus a little analysis of Williams' usual media behaviour suggested that the controversy was something Williams felt was so serious he had to make an effort to head to the studios he doesn't usually visit personally.
Little could anyone expect that Williams' defense of the highly controversial deal would not only repeat the same hollow rationales but also add a few new wrinkles to the story.
Williams' appearance - both on NTV and CBC - was a bit of an own goal. That's the phrase security forces in Northern Ireland used to use during The Troubles to describe a plan that backfired. Like the IRA bombmaker who liked to store nitrogen-based fertilizer on the concrete floor of his garage and shift it around with a metal shovel.
They never did find the bomber.
or the shovel.
or most of the garage, for that matter.
Now Williams didn't blow himself to smithereens, but he failed to demolish the criticisms of the deal.
The fundamental problems in the government's justification of the deal are well known by now.
They include:
1. A failure to explain the reason why public money is invested in the project.
2. A failure to explain - in any detail - the value to the provincial government of acquiring fibreoptic cables. The provincial government is supposed to have a telecom strategy that will, among other things, see government's purchasing power as the largest telecom customer in the province to lower the cost of government-related telecom to the taxpayer.
3. The contradictions between versions of the story at different times.
4. Questions about the relationship between Danny and the proponents of the deal.
What the Premier did was:
1. Continue the vague benefit claims with words like "tremendous" but nothing in the way of concrete examples. Saying that third parties like Memorial University were spending between 10 and 100 times more than if they were located on the mainland doesn't give specific examples. Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are used to paying more for goods and services because, after all, they live on an island with a population of 500,000 people. Paying more ain't a surprise.
2. Refer vaguely to potential government savings - considering health care, educational and other services - that "could be" as much as $500 million over time.
Again with the vagueness. If the business plan accompanying the deal gave examples, government would use them. Concrete examples are the easiest way to persuade people
of a position: do this and this specific good thing will result.
Savings that "could be" $500 million over an unspecified time period, could also be monumental losses over the same time frame or a shorter one.
Danny's vagueness suggests that there is fact was no business plan, nor was there a detailed cost/benefit analysis.
After all, if a $15 million investment would reduce government telecom costs by a measurable amount each year for 10 years and would produce a measurable drop in research bandwidth, they could use those numbers. It's how businesses make decisions. It's called return on investment. Spend $100 bucks and save $10 bucks a year for 10 years. Spend $100 bucks and boost sales by $1000 bucks. Either one makes sense and even the most dense Rain Man in radio land can see the sense in simple numbers explained simply.
Williams' vagueness reinforces the facetious suggestion this deal was done on the golf course and that rest has been an exercise in finding excuses and rationalizations. There was no business plan. There is no case. Danny is making it up as he goes along.
It's hard to come to any other conclusion.
3. Continued contradictions and lame arguments. Williams now claims credit for rejecting the proposal the first time out of concerns about perceptions. Later he said the thing is "squeaky clean". These two thoughts can live in the same space and they remain one of the basic contradictions in the entire story.
If the deal smelled a bit at the outset, it was not rendered less stinky by waiting.
The whole thing remains clouded by suspicion especially when the Premier tells the NTV audience that Dean Macdonald and Ken Marshall "worked for me before". That little piece of half-truth has already been demolished but that the Premier keeps going back to such a weak position suggests he simply doesn't have a stronger one.
As if that wasn't enough, though Danny Williams compared this deal to a recent investment with Cooke Aquaculture adding that the whole controversy in the fibre deal seems to be a case of "attacking our own".
That's even lamer than some of the other positions.
For starters, the provincial government dropped $10 million into the Cooke project against the private sector investment of $135 million - about 7.5%. The GRAP deal involves government spending 28% on one portion of the project and dropping provincial cash in another phase of the same overall project.
Then there's the difference between the Cooke enterprise and the proponents of the recent deal. The one involving proportionately more government cash involves the Premier's former business partners and two people he appointed to the board of the provincial hydro corporation.
And if you are still paying attention, Cooke Aquaculture is a New Brunswick-based, family-owned operation. Rogers and MTS Allstream are just like Aliant: big companies with deep pockets, headquartered far, far west of Port aux Basques. [Revised: persona headquarters is in St. John's.]
Need we go on?
From a public relations perspective, announcing a deal like this should be very simple. You simply walk through the decision-making rationale, in summary. Here's the situation; these are the issues. Here's the decision. We had a problem with one aspect; here's how we tackled it according to our values of openness and transparency.
That should form a logical sequence. Since the argument persuaded the organization to take this or that action, a summary version of the same thing should persuade others.
When someone uses vague language, contradictory arguments and irrelevant side issues, people don't find that inherently persuasive. In fact, they start to look on the whole exercise a bit like the guy moving fertilizer around on a concrete floor with a metal shovel.
It might not have blown up in his face this time, but odds are good there will be a big bang sometime very soon.
Rather than support the endeavour, people are more apt to move to a safe distance. They can still see the show to come, but not be harmed by it themselves.
14 November 2006
Demand management
CBC television's David Cochrane gave some highlights of what he believes will be in finance minister Loyola "Rain Man" Sullivan's financial update due on Thursday.
Halfway through its fiscal year, the provincial government apparently expects a deficit - presumably on current account - of about $60 million. The shortfall is apparently due to the production shutdown at Terra Nova being longer than planned. The floating production and storage offloading ship (FPSO) was due to be out of service for three months; that turned into six months.
[Left: Finance minister Loyola Sullivan grimaces during last November's mid-year financial update. Photo: Greg Locke.]
Cochrane noted that there is a possibility this projection will disappear since the provincial budget was based on assumption that oil prices would run at an average of US $55 per barrel. It is current trading at US$56 but has been considerably higher than that for most of the year.
The most striking thing about Cochrane's figure is that it is low. A $60 million shortfall is nothing for the Newfoundland and Labrador government. It is nothing in the context of a budget that calls for spending $5.3 billion. That's a 1% variance.
Whoopee ding.
The figure is also low when one considers the problems and setbacks in the economy:
- Terra Nova: In June, Sullivan predicted the anticipated downtime would cost the province $200 million in deferred revenue. It isn't really a loss since the oil that would have been pumped in June will be pumped later at whatever the price is at the time.
- Stephenville: The budget obviously took into account the loss of jobs and business taxes resulting from the closure.
- No Hebron. The provincial budget was decided around the time the negotiations were in their last stages. There doesn't appear to have been any allowance for Hebron but the financial picture would have been considerably rosier if Hebron was underway.
- Fishery fiasco: The fishery is in the slings. Exports are down and Fishery Products International's processing facilities are not working, or certainly aren't working at capacity. That means there is a measurable difference in government revenue from people collecting employment insurance who ordinarily would collecting a paycheque.
Cochrane attributed the small deficit to oil and that's the surest thing anyone can say. The provincial government is raking in so much money from oil exports that it really doesn't need to blink over a mere $60.
[Right: Provincial budget officials rework spending and revenue projections for the FY 2006 during a recent lunch meeting in the West Block cafeteria. Calculations later showed the deficit would be about $100.]
To be frank, though, given Sullivan's horrendous record of budget predictions this $60 million could be a surplus 10 times larger than his projected shortfall.
Sullivan projected a $6 million surplus when he tabled the budget last spring. The year before he wound up with a surplus $76.2 million in Fiscal Year 2005 having predicted a deficit of $492 million.
But wait, that really isn't what happened either.
The so-called cash statement released in August, showed the government's performance in handling its annual operating budget: the current and capital spending. That figure is the one to notice since it reflects the actual annual performance of government itself.
The numbers Sullivan usually bandies around are accrual numbers and contain all manner of debts and theoretical liabilities. The "cash" statements, usually released in November as part of the audited public accounts were released in August during the poll-goosing period since they purported showed the provincial government had a modest surplus of sixty-odd million more than projected.
But even that wasn't a straightforward statement of the cash performance. Sullivan's Budget 2006 showed that capital and current accounts were in deficit by about $62 million.
By August, the revised figures showed the provincial government finished FY 2005 (year end 31 March 2006) with a surplus of...wait for it...
$524 million.
That's right and it's there in black and white on page three. Now Sullivan doesn't call it a surplus; instead it's a cash "contribution".
But it's there.
Those variations are matched by every single budget Sullivan has introduced. He has predicted horrendous deficits in some years and wound up in surplus by almost the same amount.
However, 2005 was a record year, even for Sullivan. Incidentally, the current account was in surplus by over $700 million. By the time he accounted for a deficit in the capital account spending, the thing came down to half a billion dollars.
At no point has Sullivan indicated whether that was just a paper surplus, i.e. money budgeted but not spent or if it was real, as in cash he had sitting in the bank to roll over into the current fiscal year.
Fundamentally, Loyola Sullivan's track record as finance minister has been spotty when it comes to predictions. It's also bordering on the deceptive in the way he has switched from talking about "cash" accounts and accrual accounts. He talks about "cash" when he wants good news to goose a poll, for example and even then he very carefully chooses his words - "$60 million more than expected" versus $524 million - so people have a hard time seeing what actually occurred.
But at other times, Sullivan trots out a deficit - on an accrual basis - when he wants to tamp down expectations. Far from being genuinely transparent and accountable, Sullivan engages in the same verbal gymnastics of some of his predecessors, tossing out figures in mesmerising detail to suit his political purposes.
These days Sullivan has to tamp down expectations. Pharmacists are clamouring for more money. Bridges need to be replaced, roads paved and ferries built. If people knew exactly what the financial state of the province was, they might actually expect cabinet to spend some money.
If all that wasn't bad enough, the cabinet has been taking a hammering in its ethical standards with announcement of public money for a private sector cable deal.
And so, despite having announced budget consultations well in advance, Sullivan suddenly postponed them for an "update" and, as one might sometimes expect a leaked set of figures to reporter.
The political goal of the leak and Sullivan's Thursday statement is two-fold.
First, Sullivan wants to shut down demands for spending. It's that simple.
Second, he wants people to start focusing on possible budget cuts, he wants them to keep feeling the province's finances are shaky, so they will stop thinking about the cable controversy. In political circles, that's called wagging the dog or changing the channel.
Fundamentally, though, Sullivan knows that his prediction of a deficit - accompanied with his usual dour delivery - is just a diversion to suit a transitory purpose.
Sullivan knows the true financial picture isn't anything as bad as he says it is.
Sullivan knows his own abysmal record of fiscal accountability better than anyone else.
Halfway through its fiscal year, the provincial government apparently expects a deficit - presumably on current account - of about $60 million. The shortfall is apparently due to the production shutdown at Terra Nova being longer than planned. The floating production and storage offloading ship (FPSO) was due to be out of service for three months; that turned into six months.
[Left: Finance minister Loyola Sullivan grimaces during last November's mid-year financial update. Photo: Greg Locke.] Cochrane noted that there is a possibility this projection will disappear since the provincial budget was based on assumption that oil prices would run at an average of US $55 per barrel. It is current trading at US$56 but has been considerably higher than that for most of the year.
The most striking thing about Cochrane's figure is that it is low. A $60 million shortfall is nothing for the Newfoundland and Labrador government. It is nothing in the context of a budget that calls for spending $5.3 billion. That's a 1% variance.
Whoopee ding.
The figure is also low when one considers the problems and setbacks in the economy:
- Terra Nova: In June, Sullivan predicted the anticipated downtime would cost the province $200 million in deferred revenue. It isn't really a loss since the oil that would have been pumped in June will be pumped later at whatever the price is at the time.
- Stephenville: The budget obviously took into account the loss of jobs and business taxes resulting from the closure.
- No Hebron. The provincial budget was decided around the time the negotiations were in their last stages. There doesn't appear to have been any allowance for Hebron but the financial picture would have been considerably rosier if Hebron was underway.
- Fishery fiasco: The fishery is in the slings. Exports are down and Fishery Products International's processing facilities are not working, or certainly aren't working at capacity. That means there is a measurable difference in government revenue from people collecting employment insurance who ordinarily would collecting a paycheque.
Cochrane attributed the small deficit to oil and that's the surest thing anyone can say. The provincial government is raking in so much money from oil exports that it really doesn't need to blink over a mere $60.
[Right: Provincial budget officials rework spending and revenue projections for the FY 2006 during a recent lunch meeting in the West Block cafeteria. Calculations later showed the deficit would be about $100.]To be frank, though, given Sullivan's horrendous record of budget predictions this $60 million could be a surplus 10 times larger than his projected shortfall.
Sullivan projected a $6 million surplus when he tabled the budget last spring. The year before he wound up with a surplus $76.2 million in Fiscal Year 2005 having predicted a deficit of $492 million.
But wait, that really isn't what happened either.
The so-called cash statement released in August, showed the government's performance in handling its annual operating budget: the current and capital spending. That figure is the one to notice since it reflects the actual annual performance of government itself.
The numbers Sullivan usually bandies around are accrual numbers and contain all manner of debts and theoretical liabilities. The "cash" statements, usually released in November as part of the audited public accounts were released in August during the poll-goosing period since they purported showed the provincial government had a modest surplus of sixty-odd million more than projected.
But even that wasn't a straightforward statement of the cash performance. Sullivan's Budget 2006 showed that capital and current accounts were in deficit by about $62 million.
By August, the revised figures showed the provincial government finished FY 2005 (year end 31 March 2006) with a surplus of...wait for it...
$524 million.
That's right and it's there in black and white on page three. Now Sullivan doesn't call it a surplus; instead it's a cash "contribution".
But it's there.
Those variations are matched by every single budget Sullivan has introduced. He has predicted horrendous deficits in some years and wound up in surplus by almost the same amount.
However, 2005 was a record year, even for Sullivan. Incidentally, the current account was in surplus by over $700 million. By the time he accounted for a deficit in the capital account spending, the thing came down to half a billion dollars.
At no point has Sullivan indicated whether that was just a paper surplus, i.e. money budgeted but not spent or if it was real, as in cash he had sitting in the bank to roll over into the current fiscal year.
Fundamentally, Loyola Sullivan's track record as finance minister has been spotty when it comes to predictions. It's also bordering on the deceptive in the way he has switched from talking about "cash" accounts and accrual accounts. He talks about "cash" when he wants good news to goose a poll, for example and even then he very carefully chooses his words - "$60 million more than expected" versus $524 million - so people have a hard time seeing what actually occurred.
But at other times, Sullivan trots out a deficit - on an accrual basis - when he wants to tamp down expectations. Far from being genuinely transparent and accountable, Sullivan engages in the same verbal gymnastics of some of his predecessors, tossing out figures in mesmerising detail to suit his political purposes.
These days Sullivan has to tamp down expectations. Pharmacists are clamouring for more money. Bridges need to be replaced, roads paved and ferries built. If people knew exactly what the financial state of the province was, they might actually expect cabinet to spend some money.
If all that wasn't bad enough, the cabinet has been taking a hammering in its ethical standards with announcement of public money for a private sector cable deal.
And so, despite having announced budget consultations well in advance, Sullivan suddenly postponed them for an "update" and, as one might sometimes expect a leaked set of figures to reporter.
The political goal of the leak and Sullivan's Thursday statement is two-fold.
First, Sullivan wants to shut down demands for spending. It's that simple.
Second, he wants people to start focusing on possible budget cuts, he wants them to keep feeling the province's finances are shaky, so they will stop thinking about the cable controversy. In political circles, that's called wagging the dog or changing the channel.
Fundamentally, though, Sullivan knows that his prediction of a deficit - accompanied with his usual dour delivery - is just a diversion to suit a transitory purpose.
Sullivan knows the true financial picture isn't anything as bad as he says it is.
Sullivan knows his own abysmal record of fiscal accountability better than anyone else.
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