Sullivan new fish ambassador

Loyola Sullivan, former Newfoundland and Labrador finance minister, is the new Canadian ambassador for fisheries conservation.

Sullivan takes up a post re-established in 2005, having been eliminated in 1996 as reported by ctv.ca.

Public Relations Measurement

Public relations professionals spend a chunk of time trying to measure things. Aside from wondering if what you are doing is actually producing anything other than billings, clients want to see some tangible indication of results for communications programs.

Simple stuff - like saying the story got front page above the fold in a given newspaper - is a bit dated and must inevitably be coupled with other things to give a sense of whether or not the news release got the message across.

Corporate clients want some reliable indicator of what they get for their money; they want to see a return on investment (ROI).

One of the big measurements - and one of the raging debates - is effectiveness.

Just to give an idea of how big an issue measurement is, take a gander at Katie Paine's blog which dedicated entirely to research and evaluation for communications. That's on top of KD Paine and Partners' company website.

There's also Cymfony, a company that does measurement as its entire book of business. The Canadian Public Relations Society measurement committee - yes they even have one - developed a method they endorse. You can find more on it here.

Research is the starting point for any effective plan, let alone a public relations plans. Research is itself a speciality within the public relations field and the real treasure is finding people who can not only spit out data but also paint a coherent picture of what the data means.

Plenty can lay the mosaic individual tiles. Few can then step back and see the profile of Abraham Lincoln.

Bond Papers is the product of research. All the bandwidth devoted to the provincial government positions and how Danny Williams operates comes from observation.

It forms the starting point of what your humble e-scribbler needs to give clients advice on how to approach an issue involving government. What gets put on a computer screen here is just the tip of the over-used iceberg analogy.

Virals, poll goosing and all that you've read about here are the PR equivalent of showing how to lift an ice cube with a piece of string and some salt. The real challenge comes in knowing how to shift the entire freakin' berg of attitudes and behaviour.

And knowing why you want to move the berg in the first place.

All of this is just an excuse to link to a post at Offal News that itself winds up at an amazing website maintained by the New York Times. The Times has used some simple software to let you wander through George Bush's state of the union speeches searching for keywords. You can see where the word turns up, the speech context and the frequency it shows up.

Curious stuff.

Fascinating in a nerdy/geeky sorta way.

But it's inevitably the start of someone's strategic plan.

Danny Williams: At odds with himself...again

Courtesy of vocm.com, the latest comment by Premier Danny Williams [right] on the Hibernia South project he cancelled last week:

...He says the inherent conflict of interest is the feds supporting the CNLOPB while they [the federal government] own part of the project. ...

There's the case, ladies and gentlemen, against the provincial government having an equity stake in any offshore oil or gas project. How could the provincial government hold veto power over a project it has a financial interest?

Bond readers have already heard about a conflict of interest involving the provincial government and the offshore. It's one of the reasons why the oil companies weren't too fussy about Danny's idea of having the same guy who was negotiating the government's tax take also sitting to negotiate his potential seat at the operators table.

It was a conflict of interest. Bond Papers hit on the notion, then had the conflict of interest issue confirmed by industry sources.

Hebron talks could likely get started if Premier Williams agreed with himself. Sadly, he finds it more productive to argue with himself on more and more issues, instead. With such a diversity of opinion just within a single brain, Danny Williams can actually be a team of one.

Public policy by Sybil.

What a concept.

"Show me the shoes and I'll piss on them", or Danny Williams' latest jihad

Meanwhile, the Council of the Federation meeting is going to be fun, given Danny Williams latest "screw you" message to his fellow Premiers.

The shoeshine guys outside the meeting will be doing a raging book of business patching up the nine pairs of first minister loafers from across Canada the feisty Newfoundland and Labrador premier is set to soak.

In the same story at vocm.com, the Premier Dan is quoted as saying:

Williams says he wants the federal government to make all of the provinces whole however if they experience a financial setback while Newfoundland and Labrador gain more money, then so be it. [Emphasis added]

That's what he said; you get to listen to these things while a blizzard rages outside your house.

Once again, it's pretty easy to see Premier Dan at war with himself on the same issue. At the same time as he claimed it would be unthinkable to reduce Newfoundland and Labrador's federal hand-outs, he's quite happy if someone else gets shafted.

Sucks to be them, so to speak.

That sort of bumpf plays well at home among some people, but it will go over like the proverbial flatulence episode in a house of worship. Expect the upcoming council meeting to be a bit on the stormy side, much as the October 2004 meeting would have been had Danny sat his backside in the chair reserved for him. Premiers were more than a bit miffed with Danny's posturing that put his own interest above everyone else's. Same guy. Same message as he is spreading now.

Back then he found an excuse and stormed out of the meeting with all the melodramatic - histrionic (?) - flair he could muster. He did it solely to avoid the tongue-lashing some of his counterparts had ready for him.

Will he find an excuse to storm out or skip the meeting this time? Or will there be fireworks to light up the winter evening in Toronto?

The only thing for sure is that it is highly unlikely Danny Williams will get anything out of his latest crusade except a bunch of ticked off provincial premiers.

Hasta la victoria siempre?

vocm.com seems to have a pipeline into the local Maquis cell.

This is pure guerrilla politics.

Update: The vocm link doesn't seem to work very well. It takes you to the main youtube.com page but you can't find the video. At least your humble e-scribbler couldn't.

Not a problem.

There's a version embedded at dennisrice.ca.

Update 2: Over at Offal News, Our Man in Lono has put this little video in a political communications context.

The Update Strikes Back: Surprise. The thing turns up on NTV along with a couple of other videos. Low production values. Crude message. Does it deserve media attention like this?

As the first comment - and so far only one - said it is "anti-NL". Around here, that wasn't the first thought and unless the Premier and the province are inextricably linked, it's kinda hard to sustain that argument for too long.

But hey it's a gut reaction.

Update 4: Revenge of the Sick: Flip over to youtube.com and you'll find the political viral has had about 3150 views so far. [h/t to Greg for the youtube link]

Will this make Danny reconsider expanding broadband access?

Fact Checker: What Lorne and Danny want

A number of news media have made a fundamental mistake in describing what Lorne Calvert and Danny Williams are concerned about.

Equalization is complex subject. It's tedious and it is hard to express simply.

But the Calvert/Williams position is actually easy to understand and describe.

For the purposes of illustration, let's use the cbc.ca story found on the /nl site. Overall, it's a pretty good summary of yesterday's news from Saskatchewan.

Part way through there's this sentence:

One of their concerns is that a new equalization formula would factor non-renewable resources into the calculations.

That's not accurate.

Calvert and Williams are concerned the Prime Minister will not keep his election promise to exclude 100% of non-renewable resource revenues from Equalization.

What cbc.ca and others are running makes you think the revenues are out now and Harper is going to put them all in. He doesn't have to: they already are included 100%. The O'Brien panel recommends including half of all resource revenues.

See the difference?

It's a pretty big one, actually.

And for Equalization, it's remarkably simply to state.

Howard Hunt dies

Everette Howard Hunt, former secret agent, author, alleged inspiration for Tom Cruise's character in Mission: Impossible and one of the co-conspirators in the 1972 Watergate break-in died yesterday, aged 88.

For more background on Watergate, here's a link to the Washington Post site. The paper compiled its coverage - including the original pieces by Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward - and updated some stories.

The Watergate affair remains a fascinating piece of American history and an amazing piece of journalism that continues to teach lessons today. All Woodward and Bernstein did was never accept the official position, like say "We just need more information".

Instead, they just asked simple questions: who knew what, when did they know and what did they do once they knew?

It is amazing what you can uncover when you just ask simple, logical questions.

Out of that unfolded what would otherwise have remained reported - according to the official version - as a simple burglary.

Williams' Western Wanderings

1. "Danny Williams: At war with himself". Bond Papers comment on Tuesday's speech.

2. "Premiers stand united", the Star Phoenix coverage, from Saskatoon. Most laughable of a number of laughable comments by Williams: that the O'Brien panel based its finding on "arbitrary" principles and that it was "flawed". Whenever Williams is faced with something he disagrees with, it is, by definition flawed. He never gives reasons he just makes the statement. Of course, in the Danny-centric mind, it doesn't require further explanation since that's the reason it's flawed: because he disagrees with it and he said so.

3. "Maritime premiers go begging in Alberta". The Calgary Sun headline on a Canadian Press story. The story is short but the last line tells it all: a guy from New Brunswick reminds his Premier that he will find his way back to New Brunswick when the wages at home are as good as in Alberta.

Danny Williams: At war with himself

In Saskatoon today, Newfoundland and Labrador premier Danny Williams [Left: in February 2005] insisted that the prime Minister must live up to his campaign promise and exclude non-renewable resource revenues from the Equalization formula.

In October 2006, Williams told provincial Progressive Conservatives he had supported Harper during the federal election but didn't quite trust him.

In his letter to Harper during last year's election campaign, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams advocated including all resource revenues (renewable and non-renewable) in the Equalization formula. He wrote to Harper that this was the policy of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

In the 2004 election campaign, Williams said the Harper plan was not as good as the one he had just negotiated with then-Prime Minister Paul Martin to provide additional Equalization-type payments to the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial government.

Danny Williams is arguing against himself.

He is also undermining his own credibility with national audiences.

Williams knows that his current position - no non-renewable resource revenues - does not treat all provinces equally under Equalization. Provinces that have huge incomes from oil, gas and mining get to hide billions of income the federal top-up program. That gives them considerably more federal transfers than provinces that are less reliant on non-renewables.

Yet, in Saskatoon, Williams told a university audience:

"I think we all know why he might do that. We are facing a federal election and...in the end, equality among provinces takes a back seat to the electoral urgency of currying favour with the majority."

Not only does Williams make a false claim about equality, he pits one province against another as deliberate effort to raise political ire in English-speaking Canada with Quebec. It's not the first time he has criticised Quebec, either explicitly or - as in this case - implicitly.

Williams also knows that the expert panel that reported last year found that both positions he has advocated do not treat provinces equally or fairly. The O'Brien panel found that the all-in approach disadvantages provinces with non-renewable resources. The approach Williams now favours doesn't either.

What O'Brien and his expert panelists proposed instead was including half of all resources revenues. According to O'Brien, the panel's approach would represent as fair a compromise between the two extreme positions - both advocated by Danny Williams.

And obviously by rejecting the O'Brien panel, Williams is effectively arguing against a compromise of his own positions.

Beyond that, however, Williams takes an approach - pitting province against province - he criticizes others for supposedly taking:

"But don't pit provinces against each other, don't take from one to give to another and use it against them, don't break firm written commitments - honour them."

Sadly, it's not the first time he's done that either. In October, Williams launched his re-election campaign by attacking the federal government, just as he today accuses the federal government of putting more money into a single province as a way of currying favour for the Conservatives.

In the Equalization fight, however, Williams stands no chance of winning. He is isolated among Premiers, with only the ineffectual premier of Saskatchewan on his side. The position Williams now defends is demonstrably as unfair to some provinces as the one he advocated only last year.

Incredible as it may seem, Danny Williams is at war with himself.

In such a situation, he cannot help but lose and that, is proof of the wisdom in John Crosbie's critique of Williams' entire approach.

Kent will announce intentions after Hodder

Mount Pearl Mayor Steve Kent told VOCM news Tuesday evening that he has not ruled out running for Harvey Hodder's seat but he hasn't ruled it in either.

Kent said he will announce his intentions once Hodder announces what he will do.

And hey, people, while we labelled it as scuttlebutt, Kent's comments to VOCM suggest that he will be looking to replace Harv wearing the same colours.

Scuttlebutt: Steve Kent to run for Tories in Waterford Valley

If the Mount Pearl rumour mill is right, Mount Pearl Mayor Steve Kent, recently seen on NTV's make-over show, will make himself over from a Liberal to a Danny Williams Tory for the next provincial election.

Kent will reportedly seek the Tory nod in Waterford Valley to replace Harvey Hodder, once Hodder announces he will be retiring from politics.

Kent's name was most recently floated as a possible Liberal candidate in the federal riding of St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Kent was courted by then Premier Brian Tobin to run in a federal by-election in the late 1990s and before that had been courted by the Reform/Alliance as a possible candidate.

Killing them softly

While the next general election is set for October 2007, Danny Williams started asking his caucus last fall to make a decision on whether or not they would be running next time around.

According to some reports, Williams wanted to get new members in well before the election ostensibly so they could have some experience before the big game coming in the fall.

Every time he's been asked about a spring election by reporters, Williams made up some cock and bull story - which everyone swallowed - about having to call the House back to change the legislation. Sometimes he used another tale - again with bells on it - about not want to change everyone's expectation of a fall election and therefore catching the opposition parties short.

Truth is, Williams wasn't planning on having a snap election.

Nope.

The Premier understood its actually far more useful to wear the enemy down before the big contest. Rather than let them get ready for an election at a predicted time, better to use every power he has to have the opposition tied up with candidate selections, fund-raising and all the other things that go with elections for the better part of a year.

If the plan holds, both the Liberals and the New Democrats will be so shagged out by the fall, Danny will have an easy time no matter what.

And in the meantime, he can tell as many nosepullers as he feels like, knowing no one will challenge his story of the moment.

Danny's ideal candidate

How many hockey players will seek the Tory nomination in districts around the province this year?

Bond Papers wonders if Danny will be making approaches to the guy who would be his ideal candidate: Big Bobby Clobber. [ram file]

His ideas on negotiating would fit right in with current government policy.

Monday Morning Quickies

1. Equalization: the view from Hill Times. Nothing Earth-shaking, but the view from north of the Queensway.

2. The Sun apparently doesn't shine on Harper's plan. Saying the Harper proposal would soak places like Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador merely shows that the Sun chain can't read English. It's odd for a Conservative newspaper chain to support hand-outs for everyone.

Local Tory claims need closer scrutiny, too

Imagine the shock there'd be at finding a column like this one from the Halifax Daily News in a Newfoundland and Labrador newspaper.

Word came this week that Newfoundland and Labrador's Equalization entitlement would be down this year by $150 million or so.

Danny pronounced the budget would have to be redone. Local media dutifully reported each of the Premier's utterances.

Now the reason for the cut is the same here as in Nova Scotia. Don't expect any local media to make a point of correcting Danny in public or private on this one:

The short answer is, Nova Scotia's per-capita fiscal capacity went up. That is, our ability to pay our own way has grown, so we need less from the national welfare system.

In Danny-stan, we were treated to claims like this one:

"On a per-capita basis, there's nobody, no other province that takes a hit like we take," said Williams.

The Tory premier said it would mean recalculating his province's budget.

Despite Williams' best efforts, the oil sector is producing windfalls for his treasury. It will keep doing so for a few more years before - as Danny's former finance minister knew - we take a tumble. Of course, Danny won't be around when the tumble comes, but I digress.

So Newfoundland and Labrador's entitlement to hand-outs is going down for the same reason Nova Scotians are getting less.

No plots. No shafting.

No greater a drop than it ought to be given the phenomenal growth in the economy.

Just fair treatment and, at the root of it, something we should be proud of: we need less from the national welfare system.

Many of Williams' claims need closer scrutiny.

Often, what Danny says simply isn't true. It's is factually incorrect. Wrong, even.

Other times, there is an upside he won't discuss but the rest of us might find important.

Sometimes there's a downside.

And sometimes - a lot of the time - people would prefer to know that than to get, say mindlessly backing The Leader on his latest jihad or writing an editorial that sounds so saccharine that his Mom - or talk radio's Tony or Minnie - could have written it:

"Oh my gracious, it's amazing our wonderful Danny has been able to do all the marvelous stuff he's done for the good of all us poor people, what wit' all that miserable crowd he got to work with. Now they are leaving him and he got to clean up d'ere messes. Danny, our saviour."

We paraphrase, but capture, the essence of the piece.

Jim Meek's take on Danny and Oil

Call Danny David?

Let's rename Jim Meek "Polly Anna".

The People's Paper for Leader Worship

Bad enough that the editor of a weekly paper in the province once a week pens a mash-note to Danny based on nothing other than his school boy hero-crush on The Leader.

They used to be the "But Danny, I adore you, why do you hate me, why won't you speak to me?" love-rent teenager kinda drivel. Lately - now that Danny will advertise in the paper and grant interviews - it's back to the public orations in honour of The Leader Who Gloriously Slayed the Mighty Ottawa Beast and Who Will Now Smite the Oil Bastards And Anyone Else Who Would Dare Oppress His Loyal Supplicants.

It's the sort of stuff you used to see pumped out by second-rate lute pickers. They'd chase after some knight, knocking off ditties to tell the local peasants and pissants how splendiferous their local demigod supposedly was. They did it all in hopes the leige lord might deign to give the lowly minstrels a meal, a mug of warm beer and a place sleep out of the elements.

Expect the upstart weekly to be up and starting a province-wide collection to build a gold statute to The Leader in front of their offices on Water Street. Pensioners and little children can send in their nickels. The rest can cough up big for the monument.

The only potential design problem will be to see who goes up The Leader's backside, and how far. Competition for the spot is at a state not seen even in Joe Smallwood's day. Heck some are even heading back out into the parking lot so they can get a good run at embedding themselves.

Perhaps they'll the potentate route and just design the statute with an oversized pair of cheeks, set at eye level. All the more area for osculating.

Or maybe like worshippers at some shrine in wherever-a-stan, the serfs can dutifully kiss the cheek as they go about their daily work. There you stroke the lingham for blessing. Here you'd buss the tukus to demonstrate loyalty and devotion.

All that is bad enough, but now the Telegram is starting in on the public fellation, as well.

Credit where credit is due. A needle poke when appropriate as well.

But puhleese: "It’s a tribute to Williams that his Conservatives are still doing so well in this province — and that they’ve managed to stick, for the most part, to their election agenda in the process."

No serving politician deserves that kind of derriere-smooch, especially since it simply isn't true.

The Telly has been doing such a fine job of getting its editorial chops back. This paean to the prem is a marked setback.

Did the boys in layout print Bill Rowe's column in the wrong spot?

Is this another editorial ordered up from the corner office?

It just makes you shrug in despair of thoughtful commentary in what once upon a time used to be a bastion of contrariness.

Will Danny kill Husky's expansion too?

When Premier Danny Williams killed plans to develop a 300 million barrel oil field within the Hibernia project, some wondered what might become of Husky Energy's plans to bring an additional 25 million barrels on stream from its White Rose field.

The development plan amendment containing the new project could be taken by some - like St. John's Mayor Andy Wells and Premier Danny Williams - as an excuse to force Husky and Petro-Canada to negotiate new local benefits.

Wells has long been a critic of floating production systems, favouring instead the short-term jobs that would come from expensive gravity-based concrete platforms. So-called GBS platforms would be unnecessary to develop fields like Terra Nova and White Rose on a successful commercial basis, but were an integral part of the make-work approach some within the Peckford administration took to oil and gas development 25 years ago.

An excellent backgrounder can be found at The Telegram, courtesy of Moira Baird.

Public consultation documents on the White Rose development plan amendment can be found at the offshore regulatory board's website.

Williams' actions brand Canada badly?

Deborah Yedlin's column in the Globe and Mail business section Friday contain some observations on Danny Williams' rejection of a 300 million barrel oil project off the province's coast.

Some of the comments, especially the one about Loyola Sullivan, will be familiar to Bond readers.

Among other comments though there are ones like this:

Energy companies around the world -- particularly those that are publicly traded and not national oil companies -- are challenged to invest capital and replace current production. And if they can do it in politically stable countries where there is a rule of law that can be relied on, so much the better. That's why they come to Canada.

Because of what's at stake, they are unlikely to hold back on providing as much information as possible to decision makers in order to win the necessary approvals. The folks running The Rock don't seem to get it. Instead they persist in playing hardball.

or this:

With all this as backdrop, is it such a coincidence that the government's well-respected finance minister resigned some two weeks ago? The Newfoundland government now has to live with the likelihood that the companies that have been turned down twice are going to have a tough time giving Newfoundland a thumbs-up if others in the business ask whether it's a province that is friendly to investors.

Many will reject Yedlin's comments out of hand, especially those who find it difficult to question Williams at all on anything. A few out there will see the larger implications of this week's gambit by the man who thinks it immensely flattering to be compared to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

Pull the other one, Kathy.

Fresh from killing a multi-million barrel oil project worth billions to the provincial treasury, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale today applauded her cabinet colleague the environment minister for approving a planned liquid natural gas terminal despite missing information.

The proponents of the project can take all the time they need to submit an employment equity plan, a risk assessment study (!!), and an environmental protection plan before starting construction.

Surely an environment minister doing a due diligence piece (to use Dunderdale's favourite bit of bureaucratese) would want to be assured there were no environmental risks associated with such a massive project before giving it the green light?

And double surely, the same duly diligent minister would want to see the environmental protection plan before telling the proponents their project was released from environmental review?

Goudie checks out

Kathy Goudie, one of two Conservative members of the House of Assembly accused of double-billing for expenses has quit politics, effective immediately.

The Premier wasted no time in calling the by-election for February 12. News of one followed hot on the heels of the other.

Guess the rumours are true about him wanting her to go and go quickly.