11 March 2007
Williams media silence golden?
The Telegram's Russell Wangersky muses on the Premier's retreat from the news media.
Dumont fires second candidate
Latest poll shows gap closing among the three parties in the Quebec election.
10 March 2007
Implosion video correction
The following came in response to the post on the Argentia implosion in 1999: Credit where credit is due. They did an awesome job.
Thanks for the correction.
The video of the demolition of the building in Argentia was not shot and edited by the company that did the demolition.It was shot and edited by Tristram Clark and Ray Fennelly for an early Newfoundland online video site, www.cfog.net. I think it also appeared at www.thetelegram.com as part of a daily video feature called Newfoundland Today.Tristram also recorded and edited the Danny Williams and Andy Wells performances at the Big Brothers benefit which is also streaming at the broadcast on the rock site.
Thanks for the correction.
Suicide verdict questioned in death of Russian reporter
This past week, Moscow police found the body of Ivan Safranov in the courtyard outside his apartment.
It looked like he had jumped, an apparent suicide.
Friends and co-workers suspect Safranov is just the latest in a series murders targeting journalists who cover stories sensitive to the Russian government or the Russian mafia.
Safranov a former army colonel, worked for Kommersant.
It looked like he had jumped, an apparent suicide.
Friends and co-workers suspect Safranov is just the latest in a series murders targeting journalists who cover stories sensitive to the Russian government or the Russian mafia.
Safranov a former army colonel, worked for Kommersant.
09 March 2007
A-NOIAing to government
Industry minister Trevor Taylor is excited about 18 local companies going to a forum next week designed to highlight procurement opportunities in the Alberta energy boom.
NOIA started working on this project last summer in the wake of the Hebron collapse.
Search in vain for any acknowledgement of the supply and service sector's local association work on this file.
That's okay. People in the industry know what is happening.
NOIA started working on this project last summer in the wake of the Hebron collapse.
Search in vain for any acknowledgement of the supply and service sector's local association work on this file.
That's okay. People in the industry know what is happening.
Magnum Force
Head over to Offal News, if you don't already as a matter of course, and check out Simon Lono's latest observations on the Hickey affray with Roger Grimes.
Lono draws in a West Wing episode which is always cool. Lono demonstrates he has a .44 Magnum mind in a .357 world. Read toward the end and you'll see the bit where that happens.
Lono could have been quoting Harry Callahan: "A man's got know his limitations."
Lono draws in a West Wing episode which is always cool. Lono demonstrates he has a .44 Magnum mind in a .357 world. Read toward the end and you'll see the bit where that happens.
Lono could have been quoting Harry Callahan: "A man's got know his limitations."
A soldier, once and always
Corporal Kevin Megeney's remains are on the way home from Afghanistan.
The investigation is continuing into his death and into another death in August that resulted from a gunshot wound. In the August case, the military investigation has reportedly ruled out foul play, suicide or enemy action. Odds are good this latest one will head to the same conclusion.
But here's a pet peeve from the media coverage, where Corporal Megeney is referred to repeatedly as a "reservist". maybe more than once your humble e-scribbler has let that word slip from his own lips or typed them onto a page somewhere.
No more.
There's something about that word that just doesn't sit right.
The fact that Corporal Megeney volunteered on a part-time basis to serve in the army doesn't make him any different from the person who opted to volunteer for full-time service.
There's a tendency - and it may still come from the military as well - to consider the reserve component of the Canadian Forces as a haven for lesser beings compared to their Regular Force counterparts.
Their liability was supposedly different. They could opt not to show up. Blah. Blah. Blah. You hear them all. Maybe things have changed in the past six years but for a long time there was an attitude toward Reserve Force soldiers. They were reserve, as in hold-back, or even slack.
It's time to adjust that attitude.
Kevin Megeney did his job.
He worked hard at it.
He showed skill and ability.
When the chance came, he volunteered to go to Afghanistan where others didn't.
Now he's dead.
Grieve him.
But Corporal Megeney was never a reservist.
He was a soldier.
Whenever we speak of someone like Kevin Megeney, let's just call them by the simple name they deserve.
The investigation is continuing into his death and into another death in August that resulted from a gunshot wound. In the August case, the military investigation has reportedly ruled out foul play, suicide or enemy action. Odds are good this latest one will head to the same conclusion.
But here's a pet peeve from the media coverage, where Corporal Megeney is referred to repeatedly as a "reservist". maybe more than once your humble e-scribbler has let that word slip from his own lips or typed them onto a page somewhere.
No more.
There's something about that word that just doesn't sit right.
The fact that Corporal Megeney volunteered on a part-time basis to serve in the army doesn't make him any different from the person who opted to volunteer for full-time service.
There's a tendency - and it may still come from the military as well - to consider the reserve component of the Canadian Forces as a haven for lesser beings compared to their Regular Force counterparts.
Their liability was supposedly different. They could opt not to show up. Blah. Blah. Blah. You hear them all. Maybe things have changed in the past six years but for a long time there was an attitude toward Reserve Force soldiers. They were reserve, as in hold-back, or even slack.
It's time to adjust that attitude.
Kevin Megeney did his job.
He worked hard at it.
He showed skill and ability.
When the chance came, he volunteered to go to Afghanistan where others didn't.
Now he's dead.
Grieve him.
But Corporal Megeney was never a reservist.
He was a soldier.
Whenever we speak of someone like Kevin Megeney, let's just call them by the simple name they deserve.
Where are they now?
Over at Broadcast the Rock, someone has done the great service of posting two clips from a celebrity fundraiser for Big Brothers Big Sisters in 2000.
It's a great organization and local celebrities should be commended for putting in considerable effort to let people have a whoop or, in one case, a serious laugh at their expense.
But still.
Ya can't help but wonder where these guys are now.
Well, actually, they have become best buds, apparently with one - who later become Premier - giving the other one a nice appointment at the province's offshore regulatory board. About a year or so after this event, the guy doing Mambo #5, took over as leader of the Progressive Conservatives and later defeated Roger Grimes in the 2003 general election.
So for your Friday enjoyment here is Andy Wells demonstrating why he went into politics and not music, and Danny Williams doing his version of Mambo #5.
Who needs I.P Freely?
It's a great organization and local celebrities should be commended for putting in considerable effort to let people have a whoop or, in one case, a serious laugh at their expense.
But still.
Ya can't help but wonder where these guys are now.
Well, actually, they have become best buds, apparently with one - who later become Premier - giving the other one a nice appointment at the province's offshore regulatory board. About a year or so after this event, the guy doing Mambo #5, took over as leader of the Progressive Conservatives and later defeated Roger Grimes in the 2003 general election.
So for your Friday enjoyment here is Andy Wells demonstrating why he went into politics and not music, and Danny Williams doing his version of Mambo #5.
Who needs I.P Freely?
Imploding the Q
From John Gushue's ...dot dot dot a video of the demolition of the old combined bachelor quarters at Argentia, in November 1999. Warning: the video is on autoplay, meaning that when you click the link the video will start right away.
John introduces a new website called Broadcast the Rock, a video sharing service of the type that have been springing up everywhere in the past few years.
Here's the youtube.com version:
Your humble e-scribbler worked on the project.
The Argentia Hilton was a multi-story building at the old United States naval facility that, at the time it was built, was reputedly the tallest building in the province. It housed single soldiers, sailors and airmen and some transient personnel travelling through Argentia without families. There as also a medical facility there, a barber shop and other similar offices.
The Q, as it was known, was such a large building that the most effective way to demolish it was by implosion. That's a technique that involves planting explosives at key parts of the building structure and detonating them in a planned sequence.
In this case, the company with the site clean-up contract decided to do something spectacular with what turned out to be the last implosion anywhere on the planet in 1999. They hired Prime Communications and your humble scribe started working with that company about a week or two before the implosion project.
The demolition was used a fundraiser for the local health authority. Tickets were sold with the winner getting the privilege of pushing the big red button - literally - that triggered the explosives. They hired a company to set the charges but they also rigged pyrotechnics to add to the visuals. The large red bursts are five gallon canisters of gasoline with squibs attached. They had nothing to do with the demolition, rather they created the visuals that gave the crowd reaction you can hear on part of the video.
Watch the video a couple of times and you will notice the multiple camera angles involved. The company set up a series of remotely operated cameras aimed at the building from various angles to get this edited version so you can see what happened from the various perspectives.
The event was a huge success. The amount raised ran into the thousands and the lucky button-pusher was a 12 year old boy. He was beside himself with excitement. The weather was a bit chilly on that November day but a few thousand people turned out for the show.
Various versions of the video turned up around the world on year-end highlights reels.
John introduces a new website called Broadcast the Rock, a video sharing service of the type that have been springing up everywhere in the past few years.
Here's the youtube.com version:
Your humble e-scribbler worked on the project.
The Argentia Hilton was a multi-story building at the old United States naval facility that, at the time it was built, was reputedly the tallest building in the province. It housed single soldiers, sailors and airmen and some transient personnel travelling through Argentia without families. There as also a medical facility there, a barber shop and other similar offices.
The Q, as it was known, was such a large building that the most effective way to demolish it was by implosion. That's a technique that involves planting explosives at key parts of the building structure and detonating them in a planned sequence.
In this case, the company with the site clean-up contract decided to do something spectacular with what turned out to be the last implosion anywhere on the planet in 1999. They hired Prime Communications and your humble scribe started working with that company about a week or two before the implosion project.
The demolition was used a fundraiser for the local health authority. Tickets were sold with the winner getting the privilege of pushing the big red button - literally - that triggered the explosives. They hired a company to set the charges but they also rigged pyrotechnics to add to the visuals. The large red bursts are five gallon canisters of gasoline with squibs attached. They had nothing to do with the demolition, rather they created the visuals that gave the crowd reaction you can hear on part of the video.
Watch the video a couple of times and you will notice the multiple camera angles involved. The company set up a series of remotely operated cameras aimed at the building from various angles to get this edited version so you can see what happened from the various perspectives.
The event was a huge success. The amount raised ran into the thousands and the lucky button-pusher was a 12 year old boy. He was beside himself with excitement. The weather was a bit chilly on that November day but a few thousand people turned out for the show.
Various versions of the video turned up around the world on year-end highlights reels.
What would Danny do? More like what is Don doing?
It is truly bizarre for a pollster, especially one who does business with at least one of the provincial government's referenced in this Daily News article, to make public comments slamming the Premier of Nova Scotia and the Mayor of Halifax and praising the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.
But that what Corporate Research Associate's Don Mills did yesterday in Halifax.
It's possible, of course, that all three get Mill's quarterly omnibus results, but it is still curious to see his comments.
Well, more specifically, it's curious to see this comment:
Mills' polling can still show Williams being overwhelmingly popular, but the responses to that single question don't give the full picture on what is going on in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The media get a slam as well for reporting on the projected costs of the Halifax Commonwealth Games bid. There's a novel idea: slamming reporters for doing their job. That is soooo effective at generating the coverage you'd like to see.
There's other coverage of Mills' speech. CBC has it. There's also a more complete story in the Chronicle Herald that includes some of Mills' strong criticisms of Premier Rodney MacDonald.
This speech gives us some real insight into Mills' grasp of politics in Atlantic Canada and that should colour how we take his future analyses.
If Mills was really so clued in, then he'd know to thank his lucky stars he lives in Nova Scotia.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, he'd have a Premier showing "leadership" but if someone like Mills stuck his head up to criticise what the "leader" was doing publicly, he be slapped with a lawsuit before his ass hit his seat at the hotel. At the very least, the "leader" would be threatening lawsuits very openly and very publicly.
Mills might even be kissing his polling contract with government, good bye. Subscribers would dry up.
Mills should know when he's got it good.
He should also add a few questions to his omnibus so he can pick up a better view of politics in the Atlantic provinces.
___________________
Update:
From the comments section, this blog link on the Games bid being yanked.
There are accounts of the controversy at the Daily News, a column from the same paper that supports the cancellation based on cost overruns, from the Friday Globe and Mail, a story from Glasgow- also bidding on the games - that claims the Halifax bid was more than double the Glasgow bid, and this one from the Chronicle Herald.
But that what Corporate Research Associate's Don Mills did yesterday in Halifax.
It's possible, of course, that all three get Mill's quarterly omnibus results, but it is still curious to see his comments.
Well, more specifically, it's curious to see this comment:
"If Halifax withdraws from the bid, the consequences for this community will be devastating," Mills told a business audience of more than 200. "We will never get this chance again."Admittedly the context is different. He's accusing politicians of equivocating. Then he praises Danny Williams for leadership. But if "leadership" produces a situation on, say, Hebron, that matches exactly the situation Mills just described about Halifax, then leadership becomes as useless as its opposite.
Mills' polling can still show Williams being overwhelmingly popular, but the responses to that single question don't give the full picture on what is going on in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The media get a slam as well for reporting on the projected costs of the Halifax Commonwealth Games bid. There's a novel idea: slamming reporters for doing their job. That is soooo effective at generating the coverage you'd like to see.
There's other coverage of Mills' speech. CBC has it. There's also a more complete story in the Chronicle Herald that includes some of Mills' strong criticisms of Premier Rodney MacDonald.
This speech gives us some real insight into Mills' grasp of politics in Atlantic Canada and that should colour how we take his future analyses.
If Mills was really so clued in, then he'd know to thank his lucky stars he lives in Nova Scotia.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, he'd have a Premier showing "leadership" but if someone like Mills stuck his head up to criticise what the "leader" was doing publicly, he be slapped with a lawsuit before his ass hit his seat at the hotel. At the very least, the "leader" would be threatening lawsuits very openly and very publicly.
Mills might even be kissing his polling contract with government, good bye. Subscribers would dry up.
Mills should know when he's got it good.
He should also add a few questions to his omnibus so he can pick up a better view of politics in the Atlantic provinces.
___________________
Update:
From the comments section, this blog link on the Games bid being yanked.
There are accounts of the controversy at the Daily News, a column from the same paper that supports the cancellation based on cost overruns, from the Friday Globe and Mail, a story from Glasgow- also bidding on the games - that claims the Halifax bid was more than double the Glasgow bid, and this one from the Chronicle Herald.
08 March 2007
Confusion at Disneyland 2
On Goose Bay and the Conservative's promises:
Ward is a lot more than the model of the modern major general. As he described himself to the standing committee on national defence:
That's what makes his remarks - excerpted below - very telling.
Those familiar with Ottawa will not find it at all bizarre that a defence and security initiative is being lead by Indian and Northern Affairs Canada. The rest of us can just call that the place is known as Disneyland for a reason.
But I digress.
CBC Here and Now, March 7, 2007
DEBBIE COOPER: Steven Harper also committed to a beefed up military presence in Goose Bay. Is the government still committed to that?But, then there's this testimony by Major General Mike Ward.
JIM FLAHERTY: Yes.
DEBBIE COOPER: When?
JIM FLAHERTY: The when is being worked on. I mean there is work . . .I know there is because as Finance Minister I see it. There is work afoot to accomplish this. We have only been the government for 13 months. The last group were there for 13years and didn't get a whole bunch of things done.
We've accomplished quite a bit in the 13 months but there's more to be done and the Goose Bay commitment remains.
DEBBIE COOPER: So people are going to have to have more patience there?
JIM FLAHERTY: Yes but not for too long.
Ward is a lot more than the model of the modern major general. As he described himself to the standing committee on national defence:
My role, on behalf of the Deputy Minister and the Chief of the Defence Staff, is to harmonize, synchronize and integrate the Force Development activities of the Navy, the Army and the Air Force, as well as the duties carried out by DND's Assistant Deputy Ministers.That role, incidentally is Chief Force Development. Basically, if Goose Bay is on anyone's table, it would definitely be on Ward's.
Force development is that function that continuously conceives and redesigns the military so that it is better geared to fight the next war than the last one. It includes analysis of government policy on defence and the security environment, as well as we can predict it, out into the future. It uses that analysis to identify possible future scenarios within which we would apply military force or use military skills in things like humanitarian interventions. In those scenarios, we test our forces and our equipment to determine what changes might need to be made as we replace or modernize them at key stages in their lives.
That's what makes his remarks - excerpted below - very telling.
Those familiar with Ottawa will not find it at all bizarre that a defence and security initiative is being lead by Indian and Northern Affairs Canada. The rest of us can just call that the place is known as Disneyland for a reason.
But I digress.
Hon. Joe McGuire:
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
We have been concentrating on the equipment required in our overseas operations, and rightly so. Our soldiers are in the field and so on, but the government has announced a major domestic initiative in the north to exercise our sovereignty in that area.
I am just wondering what procurements are required for that initiative. The minister has made some commitments to Goose Bay and other areas that he has in mind for exercising that sovereignty. What kind of equipment--ships, planes, ports, whatever--is going to be required, and how far along is that process? Has it got to the Public Works level? Exactly where is the planning for our northern initiative?
MGen M.J. Ward:
In response to government direction, we've been in the process of developing a “Canada first” defence strategy, which really characterizes the defence policy initiatives that are key to the government's desires. In keeping with that, in the capability development realm, we've been following up with analysis of specific scenarios, including the Arctic, that allow us to understand what types of roles the Canadian Forces can provide in that region, and also against the types of gaps or deficiencies we may have in, for instance, the ability to survey our Arctic, to know what's going on up there, to potentially to respond or to maintain more presence.So we're going through a number of analyses to look at what our options might be, and that's tied up in the defence strategy that's going through the cabinet process at this time. The government will have us look at a number of initiatives to see how we can do a better job in that particular part of our domestic land space, air space, and approaches.Are there any first steps being implemented on the Goose Bay commitment, in Bagotville, and so on, on the initial announcement the minister was making on Goose, and the role Goose was going to play in the north? Is there anything imminent there as far as the equipment purchases or instructions to public works to proceed with some equipment purchases?
Hon. Joe McGuire:
MGen M.J. Ward:
We really can't say because of what's in the plan, but there really hasn't been specific action taken on the Goose Bay initiative. [Emphasis added]
Hon. Joe McGuire:
So the whole northern initiative, the arctic initiative, is at a very elementary stage?
MGen M.J. Ward:
Part of it is at the highest levels of government in terms of specifying a lead department to review an arctic strategy. The Privy Council Office certainly has a keen interest in making sure there's a balance of effort and an understanding of who the lead department would be. INAC has been determined to be the lead department.
Hon. Joe McGuire:
They're still trying to identify the department that will lead the initiative? Is that it?
MGen M.J. Ward:
No, my understanding is that INAC has been determined to be the lead department for the development of the strategy, but several government departments also have roles to play in that. Foreign Affairs certainly has a significant role to play, as it affects our offshore or issues beyond our territorial boundary. So it will take some time I think for each of the government departments to get together and discuss those issues. We'll be having discussions in coming weeks with INAC officials just to make sure we each know what each other is doing with regard to the Arctic. So it's at a fairly preliminary stage.
Flaherty coy on federal hand-outs
Federal finance minister Jim Flaherty is a seasoned politician.
You can tell by the way he stuck to his talking points during every scrum and one-on-one interview during his visit to St. John's on Wednesday. He even flashed a grin or two as he repeated the same words over and over again, especially in answer to any question about proposed changes to the Equalization formula. The provincial politicians behind him in the media event - like Fabian Manning and fish minister Loyola Hearn - may have looked like they were having white-hot pokers inserted abruptly into their tenderest places, but Flaherty spoke with the confidence you'd expect of the guy with his hand on the nation's purse.
The CBC paraphrase of his typical response is as close to the actual words that it ought to have quotation marks around it:
The current federal government has never said it would tamper directly with the offshore revenue deals signed with both Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia in January 2005. Those bilateral deals could only be amended with the consent of the parties, and given the situation, it is highly unlikely Danny Williams would ever crack that one open again.
So what's Flaherty going to do?
Well, the federal finance minister knows from his days in provincial government exactly how the provincial governments look at the feds as both a pot of limitless money and as a convenient whipping boy to take the blame for any provincial shortcomings. Flaherty knows full-well the fiscal reality of the various provinces as opposed to the poor-mouth they like to put on for the cameras.
In other words, Danny Williams' public rhetoric about Equalization bounces off Flaherty like ball bearings off a concrete floor. That isn't saying Flaherty is a cinder-block head; to the contrary, Flaherty is a sharp guy and his political smarts make him impervious to the sort of hyperbole Danny Williams likes to toss around.
What Flaherty referred to in his interviews yesterday sounds like good policy in the making. He spoke of providing long-term, stable funding to the provinces based on the federal government's constitutional obligation to provide the top-up commonly known as Equalization.
It would seem pretty clear by now to all but the handful of die-hards that Flaherty won't be removing non-renewables from Equalization calculation as promised in two successive elections (see below). Flaherty and his boss Steve Harper will do something else, i.e. like a variation on O'Brien and count only half the non-renewables. They might add a little deal with provinces can exclude all non-renewables in exchange for a commitment to spend the cash on debt reduction or infrastructure.
The feds might impose a cap on Equalization, as suggested by several people and by the O'Brien expert panel. Under that approach, no province could receive their own revenues, plus the Equalization to-up plus any other sort of Equalization-like cash from Ottawa and wind up with more cash per capita than, say, Ontario. That province doesn't get any Equalization at all.
The Ontario cap wouldn't be such a bad prospect. For starters, Equalization is a top-up. Our goal should be to have a higher per capita income for the provincial government based entirely on its own revenues so that we don't need to get hand-outs from Ottawa. The cap is only important if your goal is to keep sucking on the federal fiscal teat rather than becoming a self-sufficient province.
Think about that the next time you hear Danny Williams get agitated about caps. If he really wanted this place to be like Alberta, he'd be signing a different tune.
What's more, an Ontario cap would still give Newfoundland and Labrador bags of federal cash. Danny Williams may have argued against a cap in 2004 but that was when everyone thought our economy would soon make us a so-called "have" province. As it is, Williams has managed to postpone that for a decade - at least. The Ontario cap will have a negligible effect on provincial revenues. Certainly, the Ontario cap pales in comparison to the balaclava Williams himself has set on virtually all the entire provincial economy.
As for Williams reaction, that is getting increasingly hard to predict. He talks a tough game, but in his last encounter with the federal government he settled for considerably less than what he asked for. Unlike his dealings with the Hebron partners, Williams actually dropped his ask with the feds in 2004. He kept going downward until he hit a figure that the feds would live with. Williams signed on and declared victory but Bond readers can go back and see the whole thing in the archived postings from early 2005.
Williams could declare victory if it looks anything decent. Most people wouldn't know if he got it or not, whatever "it" is. Williams could also declare yet another jihad against Ottawa. Don't count on that having much political impact though. The poll numbers might be big but the federal Conservatives got elected despite Danny Williams not because of him. The local party faithful aren't necessarily faithful to Danny. Even in the worst case scenario, Harper would be losing three members of parliament. It won't affect any future Harper administration, minority or majority.
The real question is not really what Flaherty, the crafty old hand will do with Equalization. Rather, we all can wonder what Danny Williams will do in response.
Bond money would go on something far less spectacular than he has suggested to date. Heck, he might even raise his fist up and declare victory, even though he said "yes" to less.
Again.
_______________________________________
For your amusement, following is a news release from the Conservative Party of Canada on Wednesday, May 26, 2004. Note that it quotes Roland Martin, a former provincial deputy minister of finance from the Peckford era who apparently did some work advising Danny Williams.
Take out of the release what you will. Your humble e-scribbler predicts that Ken Boessenkool holds more sway with Stephen Harper than Rolie Martin ever did.
In any event, for the record, here's the CPC policy statement from 2004:
You can tell by the way he stuck to his talking points during every scrum and one-on-one interview during his visit to St. John's on Wednesday. He even flashed a grin or two as he repeated the same words over and over again, especially in answer to any question about proposed changes to the Equalization formula. The provincial politicians behind him in the media event - like Fabian Manning and fish minister Loyola Hearn - may have looked like they were having white-hot pokers inserted abruptly into their tenderest places, but Flaherty spoke with the confidence you'd expect of the guy with his hand on the nation's purse.
The CBC paraphrase of his typical response is as close to the actual words that it ought to have quotation marks around it:
Flaherty said the federal government will respect the revised Atlantic Accord, the 2005 agreement between the federal government and Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia.There's the thing.
The current federal government has never said it would tamper directly with the offshore revenue deals signed with both Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia in January 2005. Those bilateral deals could only be amended with the consent of the parties, and given the situation, it is highly unlikely Danny Williams would ever crack that one open again.
So what's Flaherty going to do?
Well, the federal finance minister knows from his days in provincial government exactly how the provincial governments look at the feds as both a pot of limitless money and as a convenient whipping boy to take the blame for any provincial shortcomings. Flaherty knows full-well the fiscal reality of the various provinces as opposed to the poor-mouth they like to put on for the cameras.
In other words, Danny Williams' public rhetoric about Equalization bounces off Flaherty like ball bearings off a concrete floor. That isn't saying Flaherty is a cinder-block head; to the contrary, Flaherty is a sharp guy and his political smarts make him impervious to the sort of hyperbole Danny Williams likes to toss around.
What Flaherty referred to in his interviews yesterday sounds like good policy in the making. He spoke of providing long-term, stable funding to the provinces based on the federal government's constitutional obligation to provide the top-up commonly known as Equalization.
It would seem pretty clear by now to all but the handful of die-hards that Flaherty won't be removing non-renewables from Equalization calculation as promised in two successive elections (see below). Flaherty and his boss Steve Harper will do something else, i.e. like a variation on O'Brien and count only half the non-renewables. They might add a little deal with provinces can exclude all non-renewables in exchange for a commitment to spend the cash on debt reduction or infrastructure.
The feds might impose a cap on Equalization, as suggested by several people and by the O'Brien expert panel. Under that approach, no province could receive their own revenues, plus the Equalization to-up plus any other sort of Equalization-like cash from Ottawa and wind up with more cash per capita than, say, Ontario. That province doesn't get any Equalization at all.
The Ontario cap wouldn't be such a bad prospect. For starters, Equalization is a top-up. Our goal should be to have a higher per capita income for the provincial government based entirely on its own revenues so that we don't need to get hand-outs from Ottawa. The cap is only important if your goal is to keep sucking on the federal fiscal teat rather than becoming a self-sufficient province.
Think about that the next time you hear Danny Williams get agitated about caps. If he really wanted this place to be like Alberta, he'd be signing a different tune.
What's more, an Ontario cap would still give Newfoundland and Labrador bags of federal cash. Danny Williams may have argued against a cap in 2004 but that was when everyone thought our economy would soon make us a so-called "have" province. As it is, Williams has managed to postpone that for a decade - at least. The Ontario cap will have a negligible effect on provincial revenues. Certainly, the Ontario cap pales in comparison to the balaclava Williams himself has set on virtually all the entire provincial economy.
As for Williams reaction, that is getting increasingly hard to predict. He talks a tough game, but in his last encounter with the federal government he settled for considerably less than what he asked for. Unlike his dealings with the Hebron partners, Williams actually dropped his ask with the feds in 2004. He kept going downward until he hit a figure that the feds would live with. Williams signed on and declared victory but Bond readers can go back and see the whole thing in the archived postings from early 2005.
Williams could declare victory if it looks anything decent. Most people wouldn't know if he got it or not, whatever "it" is. Williams could also declare yet another jihad against Ottawa. Don't count on that having much political impact though. The poll numbers might be big but the federal Conservatives got elected despite Danny Williams not because of him. The local party faithful aren't necessarily faithful to Danny. Even in the worst case scenario, Harper would be losing three members of parliament. It won't affect any future Harper administration, minority or majority.
The real question is not really what Flaherty, the crafty old hand will do with Equalization. Rather, we all can wonder what Danny Williams will do in response.
Bond money would go on something far less spectacular than he has suggested to date. Heck, he might even raise his fist up and declare victory, even though he said "yes" to less.
Again.
_______________________________________
For your amusement, following is a news release from the Conservative Party of Canada on Wednesday, May 26, 2004. Note that it quotes Roland Martin, a former provincial deputy minister of finance from the Peckford era who apparently did some work advising Danny Williams.
Take out of the release what you will. Your humble e-scribbler predicts that Ken Boessenkool holds more sway with Stephen Harper than Rolie Martin ever did.
In any event, for the record, here's the CPC policy statement from 2004:
Expanding revenue capacity of Atlantic Provinces: full access to non-renewable resource wealth
The current equalization formula penalizes provinces which have non-renewable resource revenues by clawing back up to one dollar on every dollar of revenues collected from equalization payments. This discourages investment in what is fast becoming one of the key routes to growth in Atlantic Canada – development of natural resources.
When Alberta discovered oil in the 1940s and 1950s, no such clawback existed. Prior to its discovery of oil, Alberta, too, was a “have-not” region that received equalization-type grants from the federal government. It is simply unconscionable that Paul Martin is crippling development in Atlantic Canada through the punitive equalization program. Despite promises to address this inequity, the federal Liberals have not changed the equalization formula.
Non-renewable resources such as offshore oil and gas are among the most promising avenues for real growth in Atlantic Canada. Developing these resources provides a critical short term investment for longer term growth. When the federal government taxes these revenues away by 70 cents to a dollar, however, they jeopardize the opportunity to establish longer term growth.
A 2001 study by former Newfoundland Deputy Minister of Finance Roland Martin for the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies (AIMS) called for the removal of oil and gas revenues from the equalization formula while moving towards a ten province standard for calculating equalization. Martin wrote: “The status quo is not an option if Canada is to maintain its competitive position in an increasingly competitive global economy. Without early and fundamental changes to the equalization program, this cornerstone of federalism and fiscal arrangements as we have known it could cease to be recognized as a milestone by other nations and become Canada’s fiscal millstone.” (Roland Martin, Equalization: Milestone or Millstone, p. 41)
A Conservative government led by Stephen Harper will remove non-renewable resources from Equalization so that Atlantic provinces would enjoy the benefit of these revenues. We will also move towards a ten province standard for equalization. These changes will be phased in to ensure that no recipient province will receive less money during the transition to the new formula than the current formula provides.
Trust but verify
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Hebron coming after 2010
Revealing its long term development plans, ExxonMobil confirmed yesterday it does not expect the Hebron field offshore Newfoundland and Labrador will be developed until sometime after 2010.
________________
The story made it to CBC's political panel on Thursday and the Telegram's print edition on Friday.
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The story made it to CBC's political panel on Thursday and the Telegram's print edition on Friday.
07 March 2007
Burke needs map to sound policy
From The muse, Joan Burke on the need for the feds to pony up even more money for an area of exclusive provincial jurisdiction.
That's not the funny bit. A half century ago provinces were manning the borders to keep the federal government out of their backyard. Now everyone - including Danny Williams - is looking to get Ottawa to pay for just about everything.
Skip down to the bit where the province's education minister wants to get in on nationally co-ordinated literacy testing but she wants to make sure the tests are relevant to Newfoundland and Labrador.
Think about that for a minute.
We want to test literacy, but we want to make sure that the concept of reading and writing is actually relevant to this province. That sort of comment used to refer to the stunnedness of asking some young fellow from Bung Hole Tickle about the correct method of riding the subway.
Read the next line in the article and you will see what Burke had in mind: map-reading. Apparently being able to read a map is a skill useful only in big cities, where if all else failed you could...oooh...maybe ask someone for directions.
Out here in the middle of the freakin' woods where every tree looks suspiciously like every other tree and on the barrens the whole place is one pile of rocks and low shrubs shrouded in fog, the population consists of some bizarre products of Darwinian evolution who have GSP codes in their DNA.
Only problem is, Burke's theory doesn't quite explain the number of people around here who get lost in the country and die of exposure. "Triptik? We dun need no stinkin' CAA triptik"
By that sort of logic, someone would likely conclude the unfortunate sods were really mainlanders in disguise.
Around these parts, we'd suggest Burke needs a roadmap to a sound literacy policy.
We'd draw one but she may not be able to understand it.
That's not the funny bit. A half century ago provinces were manning the borders to keep the federal government out of their backyard. Now everyone - including Danny Williams - is looking to get Ottawa to pay for just about everything.
Skip down to the bit where the province's education minister wants to get in on nationally co-ordinated literacy testing but she wants to make sure the tests are relevant to Newfoundland and Labrador.
Think about that for a minute.
We want to test literacy, but we want to make sure that the concept of reading and writing is actually relevant to this province. That sort of comment used to refer to the stunnedness of asking some young fellow from Bung Hole Tickle about the correct method of riding the subway.
Read the next line in the article and you will see what Burke had in mind: map-reading. Apparently being able to read a map is a skill useful only in big cities, where if all else failed you could...oooh...maybe ask someone for directions.
Out here in the middle of the freakin' woods where every tree looks suspiciously like every other tree and on the barrens the whole place is one pile of rocks and low shrubs shrouded in fog, the population consists of some bizarre products of Darwinian evolution who have GSP codes in their DNA.
Only problem is, Burke's theory doesn't quite explain the number of people around here who get lost in the country and die of exposure. "Triptik? We dun need no stinkin' CAA triptik"
By that sort of logic, someone would likely conclude the unfortunate sods were really mainlanders in disguise.
Around these parts, we'd suggest Burke needs a roadmap to a sound literacy policy.
We'd draw one but she may not be able to understand it.
Confusion at Disneyland?
National Defence Headquarters, located at 101 Colonel By Drive in Ottawa and known to some as Disneyland on the Rideau is the scene these days of some policy disagreement between the Gordon O'Connor, Minister of National Defence, and General Rick Hillier, Chief of Defence Staff.
The disagreement seems to be leading to confusion, as two news stories this week attest.
On Tuesday, CBC's Rob North reported from Halifax that the federal government will be going ahead with a plan to create an 800-strong amphibious force to be based in Atlantic Canada. Consisting of ships, submarines, helicopters and soldiers of various kinds, the contingency force would be a special force able to deploy just about anywhere in the world.
North doesn't quote anybody directly in the story, but this sort of thing wouldn't hit the air unless North and his bosses were satisfied it was accurate based on several sources.
Odd then that on Wednesday, the Ottawa Citizen's David Pugliese reports that the contingency force plan will be delayed for at least three years, plans to bring recruits into the system faster will be put on hold and work to bring up to full strength the special force based at Petawawa will
also be slowed.
Pugliese covers defence issues and covers them very well, by most accounts. His story contains quotes from Hillier. Take as an example this one, in which Hillier is obviously talking about the need to adjust expansion plans based on demands for Afghanistan, security support for the Olympics and the realities of trying to expand the Regular Force:
The Pugliese story, though, has a bit more detail that suggests some give and take going on between the Minister and Canada's senior soldier.
Pugliese reports that the army commander, Lieutenant General Andrew Leslie, right [Photo: Ottawa Citizen], told a Fraser Institute conference on Tuesday that the army will be "pushing" winter warfare training in the near future. The army shifted away from that skill in favour of skills needed in other climates. Cold weather and Arctic operations are a key component of O'Connor's "Canada First" plan.
The disagreement seems to be leading to confusion, as two news stories this week attest.
On Tuesday, CBC's Rob North reported from Halifax that the federal government will be going ahead with a plan to create an 800-strong amphibious force to be based in Atlantic Canada. Consisting of ships, submarines, helicopters and soldiers of various kinds, the contingency force would be a special force able to deploy just about anywhere in the world.
North doesn't quote anybody directly in the story, but this sort of thing wouldn't hit the air unless North and his bosses were satisfied it was accurate based on several sources.
Odd then that on Wednesday, the Ottawa Citizen's David Pugliese reports that the contingency force plan will be delayed for at least three years, plans to bring recruits into the system faster will be put on hold and work to bring up to full strength the special force based at Petawawa will
also be slowed.
Pugliese covers defence issues and covers them very well, by most accounts. His story contains quotes from Hillier. Take as an example this one, in which Hillier is obviously talking about the need to adjust expansion plans based on demands for Afghanistan, security support for the Olympics and the realities of trying to expand the Regular Force:
"I've had to take a bit of an appetite suppressant," Gen. Rick Hillier, chief of the defence staff, said in an interview with the Citizen.Strictly speaking, North's story isn't wrong. The amphibious force will go ahead; it just won't be happening any time soon. At the same time, the contrast between these two stories couldn't be any more stark in their tone and their implications.
...
"All those things are increasing and a big load here and I need to balance that load," Gen. Hillier said.
He stressed that recruiting is still going strong and the military will meet its targets this year to fill the ranks.
The Pugliese story, though, has a bit more detail that suggests some give and take going on between the Minister and Canada's senior soldier.
Pugliese reports that the army commander, Lieutenant General Andrew Leslie, right [Photo: Ottawa Citizen], told a Fraser Institute conference on Tuesday that the army will be "pushing" winter warfare training in the near future. The army shifted away from that skill in favour of skills needed in other climates. Cold weather and Arctic operations are a key component of O'Connor's "Canada First" plan.
There must be a by-election in Labrador West
Hence education minister Joan Burke's speech in Labrador City on women's issues.
Chilly Wally dissects the quiet former pols
A rejoinder to Ryan Cleary's latest column in The Independent.
Bath of cold water?
A chill wind?
The cliches are endless even if the post is far from cliche.
Bath of cold water?
A chill wind?
The cliches are endless even if the post is far from cliche.
06 March 2007
Sullivan explains secret bonus
Former finance minister Loyola Sullivan, whose surprise resignation from the legislature in December spurred days of speculation, has defended $2875 in bonus payments made to members of the legislature in 2004 but not made public until earlier this year.
What Sullivan - who, along with other members of the Internal Economy commission, approved the bonus payment - didn't explain is how the House of Assembly consistently overspent the allowances budget line item in 2004 and 2005 by a total of almost $1.0 million after the supposed restraint measures were implemented. That couldn't have been done without Sullivan's knowledge and approval.
Since Loyola Sullivan's letter raises once again the numerous questions about what happened before June 2006, who knew, what they knew and what they did about it, Loyola has done the public a tremendous service:
he has given us yet another reason to hold a public inquiry.
In his letter to [Speaker Harvey] Hodder, Sullivan said not all the facts and context about how the bonus decision was made have been explained.Oddly enough, the details of the spending decision were made public by Hodder before Sullivan's letter was sent in mid-February.
Sullivan said restraint measures at the legislature included a two-year wage freeze and a five-per-cent rollback on constituency allowances.
Sullivan added the IEC also "created efficiencies" throughout the house of assembly's operation, including the library and Hansard, "which meant hundreds of thousands of dollars of savings."
The IEC then eliminated a $4,800 discretionary component of constituency allowances, for which members did not need to submit receipts.
Sullivan said in March-April 2004, some MHAs reported they had exhausted their constituency allowances but still had incurred expenses.
What Sullivan - who, along with other members of the Internal Economy commission, approved the bonus payment - didn't explain is how the House of Assembly consistently overspent the allowances budget line item in 2004 and 2005 by a total of almost $1.0 million after the supposed restraint measures were implemented. That couldn't have been done without Sullivan's knowledge and approval.
Since Loyola Sullivan's letter raises once again the numerous questions about what happened before June 2006, who knew, what they knew and what they did about it, Loyola has done the public a tremendous service:
he has given us yet another reason to hold a public inquiry.
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