The projections, the polls and the political reporters

The political reporters

A panel of CBC reporters gave some interesting insights on a province-wide Morning Show this morning into the final days of the campaign and what may occur on Tuesday.

In particular, it was interesting to hear provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane's reporting of comments with the Progressive Conservative campaign on possible seat outcomes ranging from 38-39 seats for the ruling party to as many as 44. The Tories have been rightly trying to dampen sweep expectations since they know the whiff of overwhelming success doesn't give their own supporters motivation to turn out at the polls and may increase the motivation of others to vote.

Unfortunately, that also smacks into a problem with the core Danny Williams message for the past year or more, namely that he needs a strong mandate - read as many seats as humanly possible - in order to carry forward. The two things comes together nicely in the major Tory message of the past week and exemplified in the only new Progressive Conservative advertising released during that time. A radio spot, likely airing only in areas where the Tories are concerned to pull out votes, has Danny Williams stating emphatically that "we need a strong mandate."

Tory callers to open line radio shows have echoed Williams' messages of the need for political parties to earn a vote and one caller went so far as to express concern that voters may vote for a strong opposition - as opposed to a strong mandate for her favourite - to the extent that there might be a change in government. The chances of a Bob Rae surprise as in the Ontario 1990 election is remote but it may be revealing to see a staunch Tory supporter expressing that concern.

The projections and the polls

One of the few people talking openly of a potential sweep has been Don Mills of Corporate Research Associates (CRA). Mills' quarterly polling has fueled the opinion that Williams enjoys overwhelming popular support across the province. He's refined his seat projections in recent days, not based on polling research mind you but by gleaning some information from media reports. Mills now projects the Tories will win 43 or 44 seats.

bear in mind that, at best, Mills' numbers are simply a brute estimate of popular vote. They lack the necessary subtly of a properly constructed political poll that would allow someone to draw informed inferences. Indeed given that some of the more useful questions have tended to be the property of specific clients - like the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador - Mills' comments on issues such as voter satisfaction have sometimes proven to be misleading since his own research is inadequate. He can't or won't disclose client data, even though he knows what the results are and even where the results give a deeper and more detailed picture than the one painted by the three simple questions Mills discusses publicly.

Just to illustrate the extent to which Mill's number support a variety of potential outcomes in this election, remember that Mills is predicting a sweep or near sweep. His figure would give 91% of the seats in the legislature.

Let's look at the unadjusted CRA poll results and see what they tell us, potentially. By that, we mean we will look at what appears to be the raw percentages of the survey instead of the percentage of decided voters Mills uses.

Using that approach, what we see over the past year is a range of potential popular support for the Tories ranging from 53.2% in November 2006 to 62% in the most recent poll result.

Put that in perspective by looking at popular vote numbers during elections in Newfoundland and Labrador since Confederation. In the 1996 general election, the Liberals took 71% of the seats with 54.9% of the popular vote. In 1982, Brian Peckford won 85% of the seats in the legislature with 61% of the popular vote. Those are two of the largest majorities since the mid-1970s when the voting system changed away from having several candidates elected in a single district. In 2003, Danny Williams' Progressive Conservatives garnered 58.5% of the popular vote and won 34 seats, 77% of the legislature.

Eighty-five percent of the seats in the current legislature is 37 seats. Seventy-one percent would yield 31 seats. Even allowing for demographic changes within the province, including outmigration and internal migration, it seems highly unlikely that popular vote numbers in the historic ranges for an incumbent party would yield an increase in seats of seven to 30% more than the historic seats numbers from a given share of popular vote.

Winners and losers

Based on the apparent popular vote numbers from CRA and historic data, it would be reasonable to expect the Progressive Conservatives to be elected with a seat total upwards of 40. That's pretty much in the range expected in the so-called realistic projection some Tories mentioned by Cochrane said was their likely outcome.

By the same reckoning, Don Mills' seat count of 43 to 44 seats would be highly unlikely.

There are a number of factors that might influence the final outcome and, as with the publicly available polling, this post is as much an exercise in speculation as anything else. However, some things that can be said or issues to watch:

1. The Tories will likely win a second majority. An Ontario surprise would take something coming that no one has foreseen. That said, every seat below 40 undermines the "strong mandate" argument.
2. Labrador appears poised to go entirely for Liberals or New Democrats.
3. John Hickey's defeat in Labrador would be a major blow. Even if the Tories pick up Torngat Mountains, the loss of a cabinet minister from central Labrador is a significant setback for the incumbent administration's plans for Labrador development.
4. Potential big loser: CRA. Every seat below 44 for the Tories undermines CRA's rep. Ditto the bigger the gap between the vote results and CRA's last poll.
5. Will it have loopholes like the lobbyist legislation? Promised whistle-blower protection seems like a last minute effort to counteract a rep even Mark Critch could nail from Halifax. The lobbyist registration act from the first Williams administration has so many holes in it you can drive a fleet of cable truck's through it. Expect whistle-blower legislation that in effect makes to easier to identify and then fire the troublemakers.
6. Seats to watch:

- St. John's West and Conception Bay South. Strong candidates running against incumbents. Even if there isn't an upset in one of these seats, a strong showing by the Liberals will change the interpretation of St. John's as Tory country.

- Burin-Placentia West. The NDP seem to be running a strong campaign there, dropping the former national party leader in over the weekend.

- Labrador's four: How the four seats go will indicate a major political rift to be managed over the next four years, and possibly beyond.

- Isles of Notre Dame and Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi. The Tories are working to unseat the opposition party leaders. let's see if they can do it.

- Straits and White Bay North. Is anything going on with Trevor Taylor or are the hints of some local push-back just unsubstantiated rumour?

- Bay of Islands. Eddie Joyce is to Danny as Lynn Verge was to Clyde. Let's see if Ed can withstand the onslaught of the premier in the district on the last day of the campaign on top of the small-town petty politics that has been worked with the city council and chamber of commerce in Corner Brook.

Frozen space turds

This segment of a talk by Colonel Chris Hadfield covers the simple issue of how astronauts handle human waste in space.

You'll never look to the heavens again with the same sense of awe.

well, at least not without safety glasses.

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A Bond Papers freebie

I knew Gerry and da boys were hard up, Trevor, but it's pretty bad when I gotta do the Liberal advance job just so I can kick the crap out of 'em on Tuesday.

The first 'Fun with Pictures' entry

The idea has been out there for a week.  We've had a hard time picking through the flood of responses but here's one that is surely going to be a top contender for the winning prize.

To avoid any repercussions to contest entrants, we'll be keeping their identities a secret, but to maximize your laughter, we'll be sharing the entrants creativity.

You can almost hear the guy saying telling Lorraine that the tyke's first words were "quite fwankwy".

Apparently he crawls, but only on a go forward basis.

Pretty soon he'll be shedding the pampers and doing his business on a go potty basis.

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The past in our present, once again

Finance minister Tom Marshall today raised the spectre of 1933 and the collapse of Responsible Government in Newfoundland. He did so in the context of launching an attack on Liberal leader Gerry Reid based on Reid's comments in Labrador which Marshall took out of context. Marshall said the context was irrelevant, just saying the word bankruptcy was bad.

Marshall raises an interesting point for anyone looking at this campaign and wondering whether or not to vote, let alone decide which candidate to vote for. If the Telelink/NTV poll is any indication, that could be upwards of half the electorate.

The incumbent Tories make much of the supposedly poor financial state of the province in 2003. it was largely a fiction, as much as Marshall's claim that there was $305 million in the current budget from the 2005 offshore deal. That little myth has already been disposed of. There is no money in the budget from the 2005 deal; there is merely a set of numbers put on the paper to show the draw down on the cash advance. But this money has already been spent. it does not exist as new cash this year.

So what would it take to bankrupt the province? Let's take a look at two examples from the province's history when financial circumstances were indeed tight.

The 1933 Debacle

- $100 million in debt.

- $30 million in government revenue.

- $35 million gross domestic product.

- $3.5 million government budget shortfall.

A decade of political instability characterized as much as anything else by a remarkably familiar style of politics:

"Rival politicians … in the desire to secure election, were accustomed to make the wildest promises involving increased public expenditure in the constituency and the satisfaction of all the cherished desires of the inhabitants. The latter, as was natural, chose the candidate who promised them the most.

“…the electors in many cases preferred to vote for a candidate who was known to possess an aptitude for promoting his own interest at the public expense rather than for a man who disdained to adopt such a course.

“They argued that, if a man had proved himself capable of using his political opportunities to his personal advantage, he would be the better equipped to promote the advantage of his constituents; an honest man would only preach to them.”

Not a single provincial party in the current election is speaking of debt reduction. Rather there is talk of spending increases and, where anyone whispers the word, debt management. That is code for rolling over debt at cheaper interest rates or, as Danny Williams has said, actually borrowing more money on top of the $485 million in additional debt the government has incurred since 2003.

In 1933, the government debt was three times the size of the provincial economic output. The total government budget was slightly less than the economic output and the annual budget was short by $3.5 million or $10 percent of its total.

That was the state of the place when the legislature voted to accept an appoint commission government.

Using figures in Budget 2007, it would be virtually impossible to repeat that scenario in the current context even if every government for the next decade was completely insane. Canadian fiscal transfers would forestall bankruptcy or anything as dramatic as the 1933 situation and most likely action would be taken long before the provincial government put itself into the 1933 state again.

Just to put it in perspective consider that in order to come close to the 1933 mess, the provincial debt, on an accrual basis would have to reach upwards of $70 billion compared to the $11-12 billion currently. The annual provincial budget would have to reach spending of almost $20 billion annually, compared to the $22 billion current gross domestic product (approximate, using current dollars). The annual shortfall would have to be on the order of about $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion.

The early 1990s

- Provincial debt approaching $8.0 billion on an accrual basis, significant amounts held in high-priced foreign currencies.

- Provincial GDP of slightly more than $8.0 billion.

- Low oil prices. (US$8 in 1992 compared with forecasts of a decade earlier that oil would be well over $40 and may reach as high as $100)

- Low mineral prices (mineral prices are cyclical and are currently high)

- Declining fishery (followed by cod moratorium)

- Low Canadian dollar.

- Government spending on current account of $3.5 billion (approx.) with annual declines in revenue due to economic circumstances.

To match that situation, the provincial debt would have to reach the better part of $22 billion compared to the current $11-$12 billion. Government spending would run at about $9.0 to $10 billion, assuming that current account spending was about 43.75% of GDP and the annual deficit would be about $1.0 billion.

That situation is not as extreme as the 1933 scenario by any stretch. Mineral prices are cyclical and will likely drop in the next decade and remain low for a period. Likewise, and based on recent experience, oil prices may not continue at their current high levels. As for the fishery, its future economic performance is not guaranteed either, especially in light of global competition and declining resource in some sectors.

If we allow for energy corporation debt on existing projects of about $500 million (acquisition plus development costs, before revenue flows )and a Lower Churchill project of approximately $5.0 billion, the current provincial debt would reach about $17 billion.

As an aside, the Lower Churchill project website has now been taken over by NL Hydro. As a result background documents on the consultation process have vanished to dead links. Those dead links contained project cost estimates.

Taken altogether, the prospect of imminent bankruptcy for the province is remote. Even allowing for added debt over the next decade coupled with an economic downturn, it would almost impossible to conceive of a realistic scenario in which the 1933 situation recurred.

The situation in the early 1990s is not quite so remote but it would still take a concerted effort to undo the economic progress of the last 15 years.

The cost of developing the Lower Churchill and offshore projects would not decline significantly in the event of an economic downturn, for example, but resulting revenues would. As such it is possible to develop scenarios in which the provincial debt climbed to levels significantly above their current one, while at the same time, the size of the economy and resulting government revenues did not increase as dramatically or even declined.

Consider that Budget 2007 forecasts a decline in the provincial gross domestic product over the next three years while at the same time forecasting increases in government spending on the order of over nine percent in the same time frame.

This is a very rough comparison of two historic incidents with the current situation. No matter how one looks at it, the prospect of the province becoming bankrupt within the next decade is remote.

That's part of what makes Tom Marshall's comments odd. After all, if the provincial economy and government finances are so fragile that a mere $100 million of spending annually over a decade would break the treasury, his comments only raise questions about his own plans to borrow and spend considerably more than that in the same time frame.

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Federal election in early December?

There are signs.

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One to watch

They may have a small budget but the NDP campaign is innovative.

The NDP will be worth watching to see how effective it is.

One thing for sure: they have the best radio spots so far, bar none. Unfortunately, there's no link to the audio at time of writing. As one comes available, we'll supply it.

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Fun with pictures, more fodder

From the PC party campaign website. 

Remember, photoshop if ya want, but these seem to be more likely candidates for witty captions.

 

Fun with pictures, some more

Here's a better Lorraine Michael picture to use. From the NDP campaign website. Keep the entries coming. There's nothing to win but recognition for your bizarre sense of humour.

Remember: Just photoshop if you want to, or preferably just give us a caption. And keep it within the bounds of taste.

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Dicks apologizes, promises to repay

Paul Dicks, the man whose expenses caught the attention of former Auditor General Beth Marshall seven years ago, today apologized for what he described as lapses in judgment.  Dicks promised to repay the taxpayer for expenses claimed for wine and art purchases.

For her part, Marshall turned a blind eye to hundreds of thousands in inappropriate spending in her pursuit of Dicks.

In a recent interview, Marshall said she found nothing inappropriate in members of the legislature handing out public money as gifts to constituents and donations to groups and individuals who were never publicly identified.

Marshall's successor found that the gifts and donations often duplicated existing government department programs, although the money handed out through the House of Assembly was entirely at the discretion of the politician involved.

Elected in 2003, Marshall handed out 34% of her constituency allowance as gifts and donations.  The allowance was intended to cover other things, instead, although members of the legislature routinely spent the money in a manner Marshall's successor and a public inquiry deemed inappropriate.

This allowance is for the payment of expenditures incurred in the performance of constituency business and may cover such items as office rental, equipment, supplies, secretarial and other support services, information material such as newspapers, advertising, purchase of flags, pins, etc..

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The Top Five most irresponsible comments uttered by a political leader in Newfoundland and Labrador

It'll take a while to dig into the files for some of the geriatric whoppers in local political history, but the past four years have been replete with irresponsible  - in some cases downright frightening - political comments from at least one political leader in the province:

1.  The hands down winner: Taking away free speech in the House of Assembly.  Joe Smallwood may have brought in the anti-IWA legislation but not a single political leader in Newfoundland and Labrador history ever said it would a good idea to stamp out free speech in the legislature.

2.  Close second: The threats to sue people exercising their right of free speech, a threat that included falsely attributing motives to the people he threatened.

3.  Par for the course:  Repeated, unfounded personal attacks, all of which the leader in question had to withdraw.

4.  This mill will not close on my watch. A quote so much ingrained now that people don't even need a reference to it. And before someone leaps in here, let's recall it is fundamentally irresponsible to make a commitment you just can't guarantee you'll be able to keep.  Like saying no more secret deals and no more give-aways. oh wait.  Those last two are within a leader's power to keep.

5.  Labrador:  the minute land.  Rationalizing why he left his lone backbencher from Labrador out of his first cabinet, the man who set the new standard for irresponsible political commentary said this whopper:

"You can't have it both ways," he said. "If you're going to cut the cabinet back then obviously certain portions of the province, minute portions of the province, can be left out." — Danny Williams, Canadian Press, November 7, 2003

There's a reason the Tories like to keep erasing their online record.

And why some people regularly archive the utterances.

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Told ya

Weather forecasting in Gander.

Big political issue a couple of years ago.

Bond questioned the motivation of the people behind it.

Turns out we were right:  it was about pork.

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The advance polls

The top 15 districts in the advance poll, shown as a percentage of eligible voters who turned out in each district.

 

District	Percent advance (07)	Percent advance (03)
Signal Hill – Quidi Vidi	4.9%	2.5%
Carbonear – Harbour Grace	4.0%	7.2%
Port de Grave	3.3%	4.7%
Exploits	3.3%	2.7%
Lake Melville	3.2%	2.7%
Humber Valley	3.2%	4.1%
St. John’s East	3.2%	2.5%
Torngat Mountains	2.9%	2.6%
St. John’s West	2.9%	3.6%
St. John’s South	2.8%	2.3%
Gander	2.7%	3.6%
Topsail	2.7%	2.9%
Cartwright – L’Anse au Clair	2.7%	2.1%
Labrador West	2.7%	2.8%
Mount Pearl North	2.6%	2.9%

What does it mean?

Well, your guess is as good as any.

One thing seems obvious, though and that is that the special ballot process likely hasn't replaced the advance poll turn-out.

Special ballots existed in 2003 and all parties used them aggressively. The advance poll turn out in this election was down 31% from the last time.

That actually reverses dramatically the trend from the previous two elections, in 1999 and 2003, where the advance poll turn out climbed each time.

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The smell of desperation

Danny Williams came within a hair of promising a cabinet seat for Patty Pottle if the voters in Torngat Mountains would elect her as the MHA.

That's about as pathetic a gamble as it gets; there really is no other word for it.

Normally, that sort of thing is the hint dropped by desperate candidates trying to hang on to a seat. Normally, when a candidate resorts to spreading that rumour - always denied by the Leader for a whole bunch of reasons - it's a sign that all hope has gone.

Now when the party leader who is the Premier starts running around openly promising he'll pretty much surely plunk Patty in a cabinet seat, you can bet two things:

1. He's reasonably sure his current Labrador cabinet minister is toast.

2. he's desperate to have a seat on the mainland that he is prepared to promise anything to get it.

Might be a clue to voters everywhere.

If you want Danny Williams' attention: elect an Opposition MHA.

But seriously, it is long since past due for political reporters to stop spreading the campaign executive jet spin.

Wipe the Kool-Aid from your lips. brush the salmon flecks and cheesecake crumbs from your lapels.

Put the Premier's run through Labrador in perspective. It isn't about taking seats away from anyone.

It's all about desperately avoiding losing the two seats in Labrador the Premier's already got.

The run is Torngat is actually beyond desperate.

It's pathetic.

As pathetic as another Premier from another party running around claiming that Kilbride and Ferryland were going red.

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Mark Critch: deadly

Mark Critch's two-minute send up of Danny Williams will either:

1. Make lots of people laugh;

2. Incite some loons to follow a fatwah against Critch who will now be regarded as a traitor and heretic; or,

3. 1 + 2.

Audio available courtesy of the CBC campaign blog.

Video available at the 22 minutes site.

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Campaign fun

Simple enough.

Take the pictures below, and/or add a funny caption.

Photoshop them (within the bounds of good taste), e-mail your submission to bondpapers at hotmail dot com and we'll post them.

"On a go forward basic, quite frankly, I'll be working to get the partridgeberry muffin back on the menu at every Tim Horton's in the Federation."

"Now when I blink my eyes, the election will be over and the Liberals will be back in government. It's a trick I learned from Jeannie."

"I did kick his butt, didn't I?"

[Photos; shamelessly taken from the CBC campaign blog, Campaign Trail]

The Galahad List

Of all the MHAs who served in the House of Assembly after 1989, only six - that's right, a mere 6 - fell into the category of having made no donations, submitted no double-bills, bought no booze outside of meals, and made no personal purchases on public funds. There were others who had negligible amounts of donations or double-billings, but the following six stand out for their relative purity.

Their chastity - the other distinguishing virtue of Sir Galahad - is a matter on which we offer no opinion.

For the record, the six are (alphabetically) :

Charlie Brett

Felix Collins

Shannie Duff

Rex Gibbons

Barry Hynes

Ed Roberts

Two of the six are running in the current general election (indicated in bold).

Should be interesting given that Gibbon's Progressive Conservative opponent made another list from the AG's report.

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Leader's Tour Logic: update

Grit leader Gerry Reid is heading along the province's south coast in an effort to shore up support in two districts currently held by the Liberals.

Meanwhile, Danny Williams is headed back to Labrador for a whirlwind through all four districts. This is the second trip to Labrador. The Tory incumbents need shoring up in western and central Labrador and there is a race in Torngat Mountains.

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A few questions that likely won't get answered

Political party election platforms have become less about a firm set of commitments as about a set of general ideas that might be implemented, depending on what happens.  In some cases, they are just window dressing.

Working from the premise that platforms actually mean something, there are a few interesting bits of the progressive Conservative platform that are worth pondering:

1.  If the commitment is based on a false premise do you still mean it? 

demand that the Government of Canada situate more federal offices and jobs in Newfoundland and Labrador, which has fewer per capita than any other province

Newfoundland and Labrador actually has more jobs per capita than all but three provinces.

2. And what about the National War Memorial between Water and Duckworth Streets?

work with the Royal Canadian Legion and military families to establish an appropriate memorial in Newfoundland and Labrador to honour our soldiers who have served and sacrificed their lives in the Afghanistan mission

3. So are you saying the provincial government doesn't manage our collective wealth now?

put in place a plan to enable Newfoundland and Labrador to develop the capacity to manage our own wealth within a decade, in coordination with Memorial University, College of the North Atlantic and the Newfoundland and Labrador investment management community

Just what the heck does this mean? 

4.  So what happened to a debt reduction strategy, in light of four years of debt growth?

further develop our debt management strategy to continue to eliminate the debt and refinance existing debt with competitive rates

5.  But is there an amalgamation strategy?

maintain the commitment that there will be no forced amalgamation of municipalities but continue to work with municipalities on initiatives to share services regionally

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More fun with signs

Yes, there's been plenty of fun with campaign signs.

Some people have been tearing them down.  That's the sport in Mount Pearl. Others have been pointing out the missing bits on some, like Beth Marshall's lack of a Team Danny mention. Turns out those were recycled signs from the last campaign, just like the Tom Osborne "member" ones.

Well, here's brand spanking new sign, complete with the strong, proud, determined graphic that is missing any reference to Team Danny as well.

Of course, it would be hard to get it in there, what with all the references to the glorious things John Hickey has done for Lake Melville in just four short years.

But surely, they could have found a spot to poke in the graphic showing that  Hickey is a proud member of the Danny Williams Team.

On another level entirely though look at it this way:

Hickey is focusing on the cash flowing to his district,  in the fine old tradition of local politics in this province.

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