Jack Layton is releasing what is supposed to be a fully-costed New Democratic Party election platform.
Jack Layton already committed to handing over - free of charge ? - the federal government's 8.5% share of the Hibernia offshore megaproject (1.3 billion barrels of oil estimated) to Danny Williams.
Where is the cost of that, Jack?
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Hands up anyone who recalls a little spat between the parliamentary press gallery and the Prime Minister's Office over who gets to decide who asks questions during a prime ministerial newser?
Anyone?
Didn't think so.
One of the things Stephen Harper can add to his list of accomplishments is taking the cajones from reporters in the Ottawa press gallery.
The crowd that prided themselves on supposedly liking their meat raw and freshly stripped from the hide of an unsuspecting politician are now dutifully chowing down on whatever scraps their PMO handlers toss them.
Like the whole Daddy Steve series of photo opportunities.
Or the photo gracing the front online page of the Globe this nearly last weekend of the campaign.
It shows the PM in front of a couple of signs held aloft by what appear to be adolescent women.
The signs read "I have a crush on Harper".
Does this not strike anyone as bizarre, in the extreme?
Let's leave aside for a moment the fact the young women appear to be holding the signs carefully so that the photographer they are evidently aware of cannot catch their faces.
When was the last time you can recall a political leader stirring the loins of young women or men in this country spontaneously?
Anyone?
Exactly. And in this instance, it is clearly nothing more than an organized event, a complete contrivance.
The Conservative Party campaign is so hermetically sealed that a young woman from a television show with her credentials intact is hustled from the room and slapped in handcuffs. There are many media events where the Prime Minister simply does not take questions.This is not an environment for spontaneity or sarcastic protests.
Nope.
These sign holders - with their perfect cut out letters and oddly matching design layout - were very likely officially approved participants in the photo op.
What we are looking at here is a fabrication.
They are like the stories of Harper at his high school reunion or with a family, especially babies.
They are to news coverage what those e-mails abut Viagra and some Nigerian bank official with bags of American cash are to your e-mail inbox:
Spam.
However, the taming the gallery goes considerably further than just the odd stunt photo passing as something real. People die from tainted meat. The agriculture minister discusses the issue on a conference call with government officials and places the handling of the crisis in both a partisan (wrong enough) and a personally partisan context (even wronger).
Reporters pen apologias that make the PMO press wranglers drool in envy, they could never have written stuff that aped sincerity so well. News rooms, we are told, are places of dark humour. Just like cabinet ministers' offices. Reporters and editors all deal with such weighty, difficult issues on a daily basis they resort to gallows humour to help them get through. We must forgive Gerry Ritz for he is just human like the rest of us.
Apparently, unlike Wayne Easter or the 17 dead and their families who are not part of the circle of people hefting the weight of the world on their shoulders..
And that young woman, slapped in cuffs? She was from the entertainment side of things and after all, it was - as one report called it - a lighter moment on the tour. No sarcasm in sight on that one, either.
The Conservatives run television ads which contain false information. Not a peep of comment, certainly not the torrent with which it should be met when any political party resorts to blatant falsehood as a core part of its campaign.
Then there's the puffin poop. The smudge of guano vanishes and news reporters trumpet the very wise apology offered by the campaign and wag fingers at the naughty staffers who supposedly slipped off the leash.
In such a tightly control campaign? Gimme a break.
And the vicious personal attack site on which the guano was now gone? Absolutely intact and free to continue presenting its officially sanction tripe, ignored by virtually all of the news media. Its message - a savage attack on a national party leader's character - survived the contrived apology built around fake bird crap.
The lightweight, the superficial reporting of this election campaign strikes all media forms, public and private. The early gaffes by the Conservative party and its multi-million dollar war room went largely unreported except in a couple of small corners, while the problems in the Liberal campaign, both real and many more imaginary, were front page news. They continue to be. Whether its the news spaces or the blog spaces, there's an unmistakable tone to the coverage and that tone is light.
It seems to go a bit beyond the normal advantage that goes with incumbency. There seems to be a certain active collaboration, an apparent willful blindness to the obvious on the part of many news outlets.
That likely sounds awfully familiar to voters in Newfoundland and Labrador.
They saw just Friday past the announcement of yet another investigation into computer security in the provincial government's system; reported straight up with no context, like say the last time a security breach occurred and the release was turned into its own form of luncheon meat, prepackaged for easier eating by overworked reporters.
Or the "historic" "deal" with the Labrador Innu on Churchill Falls and the Lower Churchill:
CBC: Instead of taking a direct ownership position, though, the Innu Nation has elected to take an equivalent royalty, which will amount to five per cent of net project revenue.
Globe: The Innu will get royalties from the new project and, as part of the same agreement announced Friday, will receive millions in compensation for losses suffered in the 1960s when the Upper Churchill project flooded their lands. They also have secured varying rights to 27,000 square miles of land, with legal title to about one-fifth of that.
The same sort of thing is in included in other national and local coverage.
A 20 minute read of the actual agreement shows something else. A trip to the memory hole turns up something else on top of that.
Even old stuff, stuff that long ago was shown to be distorted, misleading and in some aspects downright false reappears in something purporting to be a "reality" check.
The quiet demise of the Family Feud goes unnoticed, even though early reports talked it up as the hottest thing this side of Sarah Palin.
If the polls hold and the Conservatives are re-elected with a strengthened minority or even a majority, odds are that more of the surreal coverage Canadians have seen during the campaign will be commonplace. That's certainly been the case in this neck of the woods under a Provincial Conservative government.
There will undoubtedly be times when it comes to news coverage that Canadians will find themselves falling back on a line that - odds are - the federal Conservative leader will be using quite a bit, if the pattern holds:
Nothing could be further from the truth.
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More than half the owners of small- and medium-sized businesses in Newfoundland and Labrador surveyed by the independent business federation believe the province will have stronger economic performance in the next 12 months.
Okay.
The federation's provincial director, Bradley George, says confidence is on the rise mainly because of the Hebron announcement last month that got the ball rolling on another major offshore oil development.
Stop and read that again.
Especially the last bit:
"Hebron announcement...that got the ball rolling on another major offshore oil development."
Really?
It did?
Boy, are they going to get a rude shock:
The Hebron project has not been sanctioned and may not be sanctioned, according to the fiscal agreement released on Thursday by the provincial government and only the oil companies can make a decision when - if at all - to develop the project.
That's a huge change in policy for a provincial government that, in the wake of the first Hebron negotiating failure only two years ago, was threatening to legislate development of projects offshore. The premier and others complained that development could be held up indefinitely by oil companies.
These people read need to read the fine print on these things.
Or at least Bond Papers.
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First there was "Adios Indy."
Here's how Ryan Cleary described it:
Brian Dobbin, the publisher and financial backer, says his interest is not in Newfoundland anymore. Which is a shame to hear from the Newfoundlander who put so much of the hum in the Humber Valley. He’s disillusioned with this place, to put it mildly, but I’ll leave it to Dobbin to tell his own story. I don’t know the details.
Poor Brian is disillusioned. Terrible news. Dobbin apparently lost money on the Indy venture over its entire lifespan which, Cleary suggests, was undertaken solely out of Dobbin's interest in journalism and getting to the bottom of stories.
Like the Terra Nova one Cleary mentions.
What Cleary failed to mention was that the single source they used to support the piece recanted as soon as the thing hit the shelves. The Hibernia one Dobbin was supposedly interested in is also a pack of nonsense. Cleary never printed anything on it because it doesn't exist. They couldn't find anything,
Regular Bond Papers readers will recognise Cleary's version of things as a spin job. You know spin: it's the word public relations people use instead of the less polite term "bullshit".
Ryan - intrepid fact and truth uncoverer that he claims to be - wasn't happy with just mere "spin" so he torqued things a bit more for a two-parter in The Current:
From my perspective, I say that Dobbin put a high price on the paper to ensure that any new owner was serious about the newspaper business.
Ryan's writing gives new meaning to "60 cycle hum".
Well, turns out that Cleary missed a hum alright, a hum-dinger of a story.
A handful of months after Disillusioned Dobbin killed the Indy, we discover that Humber Valley is in the hole to the tune of $50 million.
What's worse:
Apparently there was an operational debt of one million dollars per month to run the resort and one and a half million dollars per month to offer the direct flights from Gatwick to Deer Lake.
The monthly losses at the resort were being financed by the parent company and this was threatening the financial well being of the entire company.
Hmmm.
Sounds just like the Indy, which Cleary says cost Dobbin $2.0 million in losses even though - as they always claimed - it was on the verge of breaking even.
Another story, entirely, right there and Ryan missed it.
Amazing.
Did he ever bother to ask what his free flight cost the company?
If only he'd thought to ask, maybe he'd have had a much bigger story than the one he wrote at the time.
In the meantime, the Humber Valley resort was a great concept. let's hope it can be salvaged.
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Walter Noel is becoming something of a legend as a political pyromaniac.
He's seems intent on constantly setting fire to himself or, to be accurate, the smoldering remains of his political reputation.
His staunch defense of spending his constituency cash on gifts of perfume, crystal and clothing serves as gasoline which Noel insists on pouring over himself throughout this campaign.
He'll happily splash anyone else within reach, as well, as he did this week with both his opponent Jack Harris and his fellow Liberal candidate Judy Foote. Those two have been able to douse any fires with simple, straightforward explanations.
The problem for Noel - and the flamethrower he brings to his self-roasting - is his repeated excuse that his spending was within the rules and approved by the "highest officials of the House of Assembly."
Sure, Walter.
We already know the "rules" were all but non-existent and one of those "highest" officials is currently facing criminal charges.
Noel has even gone so far as to claim his bone-headed actions in defended the misspending are brave or some such bit of silliness.
Well, the flames were barely fading from his latest round of bravery when the Telegram dutifully reminded everyone in the Saturday edition that Noel managed to blow an entire year's worth of public money in a single six month spree between April and October 2003. The genesis of this latest story was a news release Noel issued defending himself on the whole issue which itself resulted from some other media story generated by yet another brave defence by Noel
Amazing.
Noel's top expense that year was advertising: $3,261. He spent nearly $2,950 on over 50 restaurant and food claims - an average of about two per week. Brochures cost Noel just over $2,000; donations, nearly $1,800 more. Noel was also reimbursed for $1,367 in alcohol-only purchases at liquor stores.
Bear in mind that at the time Noel was a provincial cabinet minister with access to another sizeable expense account. We can only wait for the juicy revelations that come from the Telegram's investigation of that spending as well.
In itself, the spending is something voters might possibly have been able to get over in time. Noel's repeated use of what amounts to easily refutable excuses - the "highest officials" crap - calls into question his judgment.
And his vehemence doesn't just make one a little uncomfortable.
Coupled with his ludicrous plan to study building a tunnel to Bell Island, his unsubstantiated claims about his part in the 2004/05 offshore transfer deal, his pseudo-separatist dalliances, and his ranting about the "socialist" hordes in the New Democratic Party and their overspending way, his repeated defence of his own overspending suggests Noel is completely out of touch with anything vaguely resembling reality, political or otherwise.
Three things follow from all this:
First, the Liberal Party in Newfoundland and Labrador needs to tighten up its candidate vetting process and candidate selection process. Big time.
Second, Noel's political future is deader than dead to the point that his vote count in this federal election might wind up being barely above his 1974 first effort. Incidentally, that's when he ran on behalf of the "socialist" hordes.
Third, Noel's only political value to this race - and it is sad to see it happen - is to give the only bit of light entertainment to a race otherwise made boring now that Danny Williams has abandoned his Family Feud campaign entirely.
If Noel wants to keep setting his own political ass on fire, there's not much any of us can do except sit back and shake our heads.
Oh, yes.
And maybe next time we can make s'mores.
That's about the only way Noel's candidacy can be said to have contributed anything to the current election.
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Some curious details lay in the clauses of an agreement announced today between the provincial government energy corporation and representatives of the Innu people of Labrador. Any lawyers out there who want to offer a different view or take issue with the following are welcome to do so.
CFLCo Privatization: In the Upper Churchill section, for example, there is reference to a potential sale of the Newfoundland and Labrador interest in Churchill Falls Labrador Corporation to as yet unknown private investors. The "parent company" is the province's energy corporation.
For all the nationalist posturing by the current administration, it's curious to see a contingency established for the sale of such an important asset. Language referring to the privatization of public companies exists in the energy corporation legislation.
Just the existing project: The compensation payments to the Innu apply only to the existing physical plant of CFLCo. Any expansions in the future aren't subject to the agreement.
Don't count your Chickens: Clause 2 (a) establishes an annual payment of $2.0 million paid by the provincial government to the Innu Nation but it only begins on ratification and execution of the impact and benefits agreement...for the Lower Churchill project. No Lower Churchill; no cash
Don't count your Chickens 2: Clause 2 (b) provides for an additional 3% of dividends received by the provincial government "directly or through a corporation owned by the Province." Someone might want to double check. The Province - i.e. the provincial government - doesn't get CFLCo dividends directly.
As for a corporation "owned by the Province", that would refer to Nl Hydro, the company that holds the provincial government's 65% interest in the company that runs Churchill Falls. It used to be held by NL Hydro and that company didn't declare any dividends in 2007. Three percent of zero is...well... zero. Let's not even get into a discussion of the express statement that the percentage would only be paid on dividends on common shares.
Count those Upper chickens for the last time: The payments under Clause 2 (a) and (b) are effective only if the Innu agree to give up any and all claims past, present and future related to aboriginal rights on the Churchill Falls project.
Don't count the Lower chickens either: Any payments are expressly tied to the sanction of the Lower Churchill project.
Don't count your chickens 3: The energy corporation will pay a minimum of $5.0 million annually to the Innu Nation from the period between first project sanction and first commercial power. The payments run for a maximum of 10 years and can stop if the project stops for some reason.
After first commercial power, the energy corporation will pay the greater of the minimum payment and five percent (5%) of annual Net After Debt Cash Flow.
Sounds wonderful, except for two things. At the front end of this project - if it even starts in the first place - that net after debt cash flow might be a really tiny number. It could be a negative number. Read the definition of net after debt cash flow contained in the agreement and you can see the only thing not included in the calculation is the proverbial kitchen sink purchase and operating costs on the outhouses at the site, amortized over the life of the project and including an allowance for annual kitchen sink replacement, repair, refit, redesign and eventual decommissioning.
That would be very bad for the Innu because of the second thing. Clause 3(c)(ii) states that 10 years after project sanction, that minimum payment of $5.0 million is equal to zero. Nada. Zip.
And remember, the clock starts ticking from project sanction, not from construction. If it takes the project 10 years to get on stream, the Innu could wind up receiving nary a penny once the power starts flowing.
The ghost in the turbines: Talk about your Churchill Falls. Oy vey!
Even with that deal the provincial government gets something. In this case, the Innu will have to settle all claims for the promise of getting $50 million ($5 million a year for $10 years). And at the point power starts flowing? Potentially receiving absolutely nothing at all or a trifling amount for an unknown point beyond that.
Of course, if the corporation is sold off in the meantime, then the whole thing stops anyway. The agreement is oddly silent on that eventuality but odds are the clever legal bunnies working for the energy corporation know that not much would come of an Innu legal challenge.
In order to get the first cash, they have to sign away all future claims and indemnify the energy corporation to boot.
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With the Bloc tanking in Quebec, it seems only fitting that the completely bankrupt idea should now spread east to a band of three people running under the Newfoundland and Labrador First Party.
Greg Byrne, the guy quoted in the story, lives in British Columbia. He's running in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
The party is led by a former Provincial Conservative cabinet minister.
Note that last line of Byrne's interview with Radio Canada (the first link above). Nl First wants to change "the system".
Et si ça ne fonctionne pas, Greg Byrne envisage la création d'un parti pancanadien qui inclurait toutes les provinces à l'exception du Québec et de l'Ontario.
And if that doesn't works, sez Byrne, they'll just form a party that includes people from all across Canada, except Ontario and Quebec.
After that they'd probably let in people from the other two provinces and succeed in creating...
a political party of the type they claim is currently causing all the problems with the country.
Who said les Rhinos were dead?
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Who Said What?Well, here's what the said, followed by what he now claims he said. (mp3 file link to VOCM: http://www.vocm.com/audioClips/508125_danny%20(web).mp3)
September 25, 2008
The premier says he was misquoted. Danny williams [sic] today emphasized he did not say the nurses (sic) union came to the table during the most recent session with a new list of fiinancial [sic] demands. We had indicated he said they were new. He actually said it was a list of proposals that.(sic) carried financial costs. Today williams [sic] made sure the union knew what he actually said. He phoned debbie [sic] forward.
Premier Says Offer to Nurses Fair
September 24, 2008
Government has thrown cold water on hopes by nurses and other public sector workers that they might be in line for the same 35 per cent wage hike given to cancer specialists. The Nurses' Union walked away from the table last week, apparently unwilling to go along with the province's standard offer of twenty per cent over four years. Premier Williams says the situation with the gynecological oncologists was a special case and hence the 35 percent salary increase. He says the offer to nurses of 20 percent over four years is fair. Williams says recent conciliation ended because the nurses brought a long list of new financial demands to the table.
Nurses' Union Fuming Over Premier's Remarks
September 25, 2008
The president of the Nurses' Union is fuming in the wake of comments from the premier on their dispute with government. This week the premier said recent conciliation talks ended because the nurses brought a long list of new financial demands to the table. Debbie Forward says the union brought no new items to the table when they met last. Forward says they were hoping to get a response to proposals the union had brought to the table earlier this year, but that didn't happen. Forward says her members are very upset about the premier's comments.
"(The Nurses' Union) came in with 27 or 28 financial asks, one of those being obviously the salary template, but other financial increments. So, 26, 27 other items. Now we can't deal, we can't negotiate on that basis. If we can get down to a realistic shortlist that we can address, then maybe we're able to address some of the concerns…"Was he misquoted?
A meeting between the real-life Democratic nominee and the fictional Democrat President in which Jeb Bartlet advises Obama to get angry:
They have to lie — the truth isn’t their friend right now. Get angry. Mock them mercilessly; they’ve earned it.
Obama isn't the only liberal democrat who could stand with that kind of advice on how to deal with conservatives.
In another potion of Aaron Sorkin's work of fiction, there's an unsettling discussion about the attitude of Americans toward people who speak English and are well educated.
Hmm. Kinda similar to the views offered by some people about a certain politician's facility with English. To say they exaggerate would be an understatement.
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CBC Radio's Morning Show entertained listeners this Thursday morning with four of the candidates in the federal riding of St. John's South Mount Pearl.
Missing was Newfoundland and Labrador First candidate Greg Byrne who is living in British Columbia these days.
You can find the two-parter audio files here and here for the Q and A or go to cbc.ca/nl, click on "Programs" and then "St. John's Morning Show."
No point in spoiling the fun, but there are a couple of bits that stood out.
For starters, it was pretty obvious Siobhan Coady is perceived as the front runner, given that Conservative Merv Wiseman and self-described aging granola Ryan Cleary - running for the party he called "losers" on several occasions as a columnist - spent a good chunk of time attacking her and the party she's running for.
Coady helped them immensely by spending too much time focusing on the attacks on the Green Shift and giving rehearsed talking point responses instead of substantive answers.
On top of that, Coady and Cleary seemed to be working hard to pull the Provincial Conservative vote.
At one point, Coady worked Loyola Hearn's campaign slogan into her responses, talking about how the fictitious "we" need to "Stand up for Newfoundland and Labrador." Put that together with her pledge on the Hibernia shares and the Lower Churchill (apparently the biggie items of concern to voters in the riding) and the raft of Provincial Conservatives (former Hearn supporters) knocking doors for her and you pretty much have ABC in a Box.
For his part Cleary repeated "Danny" and "Danny Williams" so often and pledged his unwavering support for "Danny" that listeners likely expected him to claim he was strong, proud and determined to stand behind...well...you know..."Danny".
Of course, it's not like Cleary didn't write the odd column about Danny Williams in the Independent that seemed like the mash notes of a teenager whose heart has been broken by an unrequited love.
Or calling into question the need for rule of law because his hero was ticked off at some mean old judgy wudgy.
Yes, Cleary is running for the New Democrats, although he's been known to take another political bus.
Merv Wiseman kept up his end of the discussion. With all the Danny-lovin' in the room he must have been confused at some points, what with his own pledge of support for Danny hisself only a few months ago when Merv sought the Provincial Conservative nomination in Baie Verte Springdale.
Check out the pictures on the Morning Show website and you'll see Green candidate Ted Warren wearing his trademark leather jacket and shades. Over the air, Warren held up his portion of the chat but the pictures make it look like he was trying to hide his identity.
Oh well, the seat is Coady's to lose and the CBC program was entertaining if nothing else.
Thursday after next, there's a chance for some serious blood on the walls when CBC brings together the crowd from St. John's East. Expect Craig Westcott to take some pokes at perceived front-runner Jack Harris during that one.
Next week, the candidates from Avalon will have a go at each other.
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Well, that is if you think New Democrats are just "socialist" big spenders who want to pour money - that is your tax dollars - down some gigantic bottomless pit all in the name of some vague purpose.
Now Noel wants to build a tunnel to Bell Island.
The road to nowhere in Alaska will now be matched by the hole to nowhere on the other end of the continent. Nowhere in this case being where Noel's political future is headed, not the charming island in the middle of Conception Bay.
Noel, whose political fortunes in the current election are not looking good, seems to be thinking that if he channels Sarah Palin he might boost his chances of coming second behind Jack Harris.
What the heck could be next?
We shudder to think, given Noel's penchant for using public funds to pay for crystal, women's clothes and perfume he handed out as gifts.
Let's not even consider that maybe Noel's going to try some naughty librarian makeover next.
With every utterance, Walter Noel proves it is time for change in our politics.
Walter makes it pretty clear that change is not Walter Noel.
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Margaret Atwood in the Thursday Globe:
Or is it even worse? Every budding dictatorship begins by muzzling the artists, because they're a mouthy lot and they don't line up and salute very easily. Of course, you can always get some tame artists to design the uniforms and flags and the documentary about you, and so forth - the only kind of art you might need - but individual voices must be silenced, because there shall be only One Voice: Our Master's Voice. Maybe that's why Mr. Harper began by shutting down funding for our artists abroad. He didn't like the competition for media space.
Of course, it's far easier and far more effective to just toss a few bucks at the local "culture" club right before an election to get them to sing your praises.
And you can still have what Atwood calls a cult of personality.
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1. Past master of his domain: Lin Jackson, intellectual godfather of Newfoundland neo-nationalism during the 1980s comes out of retirement to pen a letter in the Wednesday Telegram. Sadly, it isn't online.
Here's an excerpt:
It was thus on Quebec's behalf that Pierre Trudeau's Supreme Court of Canada circumvented our constitutional right to free transmission of power across provinces; it was deference to favoured foreign nations that caused Fisheries and Oceans to mismanage, and finally ruin, the Atlantic cod fishery; and the opportunity to use offshore resources to finally become a "have" province was denied us due to Western objections coupled with Harper's view of us as a "culture of defeat.
Three points.
Three fables.
It's nice to build an argument on things you make up.
2. Clearyisms: Before he edited The Independent, Ryan Cleary guided Geoff Sterling's venerable organ, The Herald. Here are some of Ryan's bons mots for your mid-week campaigning enjoyment:
[Jack] Harris' district of Signal Hill/Quidi Vidi takes in [the] east end of St. John's where the granolas live. The granolas are known for their intelligence and artistic flair and for voting against the grain. So many of them started out with high hopes to change the world... They still vote New Democrat, out of habit if nothing else... For the New Democrats, the trek to victory will only begin when the party sees itself as a winner. And not the loser that it is. (March 2, 2003, p.3)
There have been charges that Williams has too tight a reign [sic] on his caucus. He shakes the criticism off, advising reporters to ask his MHAs if that’s the case. There’s also been talk for years that Williams has a fiery temper, and isn’t happy when things don’t go his way. Williams admits to having a temper in his younger years, but says he’s “mellowed with age.” (January 26, 2003)
The character and grit of a Williams’ [sic] government will only reveal itself when the administration stands on its feet and takes sole responsibility for its action. (January 19, 2003)
h/t to Mark Watton's post at democraticspace.com and a loyal reader for these blasts from the past.
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1. MUN political science professor Alex Marland, a former comms director in the Williams administration, pointed out to voice of the cabinet minister that the majority of Canadians aren't paying any attention to the Family Feud.
2. Meanwhile, the Premier is still waiting for answers from the Liberals and Conservatives to his begging letter to Ottawa. Williams wanted a response by September 26 to his eight page list of cash demands from the federal government. So far, Jack Layton is the only federal leader to reply. Elizabeth May of the Green Party didn't get a letter.
Maybe there's a problem with being known.
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Gary Kelly's eponymous blog has been doing yeoman service covering the goings-on at Humber Valley Resort as the resort goes through its current financial travails.
This story hasn't been picked up in the local media but odds are it will gain greater attention in the days ahead.
One of the items Gary posted is an e-mail from Newfound NV that discusses the company's efforts to turn the resort around. It begins forthrightly enough and then lays out the rationale behind the current creditor protection arrangement:
As I am sure that you are aware, Humber Valley Resort has had a very difficult time since its inception. The company has never made a profit and has failed to deliver on many of the promises made to some of the related parties over the years. We (the new management team at Newfound) were unaware of the full extent of some of these issues until we began a thorough investigation into the operation and fiscal condition of the Resort. I have huge sympathy with you during this period of uncertainty, which follows years of inappropriate management within an unsustainable business model - you must be worried about the future of your investment in Humber Valley. [Emphasis added]
If you want to keep track of the saga of a great idea gone awry, Gary Kelly is on top of the story.
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Walter Noel, Liberal candidate in St. John's East:
Electing an NDP [sic] could deprive the Liberals of enough seats to beat Stephen Harper. Voting NDP could give the socialists the balance of power in Parliament, the ability to wreck our economy.
Walter didn't always think that way.
Well, at least not in 1974.
Noel ran for the "socialists" in the old riding of St. John's West, coming in third with about 3400 votes. Walter Carter took the seat for the Progressive Conservatives. Lillian Bouzane came in second for the Liberals.
S. Carey Skinner polled 143 votes for the Social Credit Party.
Will "aging granola" Ryan Cleary do better than Walter did 34 years ago?
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Danny Williams may like to claim Stephen Harper is a kitten-eating lizard from outer space but when push came to shove last week, Williams gave up the chance to campaign against a key Harper minister in Nova Scotia.
Williams chief publicity agent responded via Blackberry (that's pretty much how she deals with everyone, apparently) to a Green Party request telling them that Williams wouldn't campaign with Elizabeth May against Peter MacKay "in large part due" to the Green Party stance on the seal hunt.
Huh? What about getting rid of Stephen Harper? What about spreading the word about how Steve and his minions will destroy the country?
Geez, from the amount of time spent discussing this ABC Family Feud thingy you'd believe it trumped just about anything else.
Apparently, not.
Apparently, seal-bashing is that much more important than opposing pure evil.
Or largely more important.
Or maybe the real reason is less about seals and more about the politics of the whole Family Feud.
Firstly, the ABC campaign is really just a family affair; it's a gripe one bunch of Conservatives have about another bunch.
Secondly, it's a negative thing. As such, the rhetoric will centre on why people should vote against one federal party but there is absolutely nothing in it to explain what people should vote for.
Thirdly, and related to that, Danny Williams would have a hard time justifying spending time on the ground campaigning for one federal candidate against another federal candidate. There's an unwritten rule in Canadian politics that federal politicians and parties don't inject themselves directly in a federal campaign and vice versa. If Danny Williams takes to the campaign trail actively working against a federal party, he'd be inviting retaliation the next time he goes to the polls.
That's no small issue, especially in a small province like Newfoundland and Labrador. Having screwed over the federal Liberals and now the federal Conservatives, Williams would be running a huge political gamble that they wouldn't look for some payback in 2011 or whenever Williams calls a vote again.
And make no mistake: it wouldn't be about punishing either the province as a whole or the party Williams leads. Any intervention by federal parties would every bit as personal as Williams' attacks. There's a good reason why Williams pulled back from focusing on Fabian Manning, the only incumbent Conservative and the one most likely to hang on to his seat.
Fourthly, the unwillingness to campaign actively for a candidate can be traced back to the polls. Initial polls show that after two years of ABC rhetoric 30-odd percent of voters in Newfoundland and Labrador intend to vote for the federal Conservatives in this election.
As much as some people would like you to believe the two parties are completely different, they aren't. That 30-odd percent is entirely made up of the core that in provincial elections votes with the Provincial Conservatives. Depending on which poll you want to look at, that percentage makes up a half or three quarters of Williams' core vote. If those people are immune to his ministrations at the outset, the only way to suppress them or swing them would be with a campaign that ultimately would have runs the risk of opening up severe cracks within Williams' own party.
The federal Conservatives have already pressed on that sore spot several times. Williams himself gave some credence to it when he responded to a claim by Loyola Hearn about fissures in the provincial Tory caucus by demanding loyalty declarations from his 43 caucus mates. Other politicians would have sloughed off the Hearn claim. Williams' actions left the clear impression there was a concern over caucus solidarity.
Think about it for a second. Danny Williams already redefined the objectives for his ABC campaign and he did so - fairly obviously - in the face of public opinion polls that shows he likely won't even be able to deliver a goose egg to the Conservatives in his own province, as he consistently used to claim as the goal. If he is unlikely to deliver a goose egg in his own province, any effort to unseat incumbent Conservatives elsewhere in the country would only serve to weaken his political position later on. Better to haul back now than have to face the jibes and taunts later on.
And look, fifthly, it's not like Williams ever considered Elizabeth May important enough to bother with before. She may be a national party leader in the leaders' debate but Danny didn't send her a begging letter. Odds were against him hitting the doorsteps on her behalf now.
If not of that was persuasive, there's a sixth good reason why Danny Williams won't be spending much time on the hustings outside Newfoundland and Labrador. There are major issues on the public agenda right now in Newfoundland and Labrador. Huge ones. Ones that typically turn up at the top of polls about what weighs on voters' minds. There is simply no political value for Danny Williams to spend four or five weeks knocking doors and giving speeches across the country when the job he was elected to door appears to be left untended. As much as it might be possible to run the place and campaign simultaneously, the public perception - especially in light of the polls and the likelihood of success - make that an even more risky venture than any of the others alone.
Put it together in a package and the whole idea of an active ABC campaign just becomes too dangerous a political proposition.
So Danny won't help Elizabeth May, in large part due to the seal hunt.
If that helps you sleep at night, go ahead and believe it.
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After a one day panic, oil prices settled back down on Tuesday.
NYMEX crude for November delivery was at US$106.81, with the spot for Brent and West Texas Intermediate at, respectively, US$101.70 and US$107.86.
Brent is the closest thing in price to Newfoundland light, sweet incidentally.
Oil prices may swing up and down over the next couple of days or even into next week, with much depending on the massive bail-out package working its way through the American federal Congress.
On the whole, though, it looks like oil will continue a generally downward trend over the next few months.
The implications of this dropping oil price will become more apparent for Newfoundland and Labrador very shortly.
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Yep.
That pretty much explains why Nanos Research numbers are typically just a bit different - and sometimes quite a bit different - from the ones coming from a majority of national pollsters.
Now mind you, this is not really a problem for ordinary mortals.
They aren't substituting extensive rationalizations of Gerry Ritz's appalling comments (They pay Connie hacks big bucks to apologize for Harper's crew; we don't need it from CTV) for something like thoughtful, balanced coverage.
They aren't even pondering the bizarre universe in which The Star and National Post columnists share essentially the same view of the Liberals and apparently the same goal of slagging the party at every opportunity. We await Don Martin's new job editing Toronto's other other newspaper that at least knows it has nothing to offer anyone outside the GTA.
Their peculiar brand of tripe comes not from actually covering the campaign but from reading some dodgy polls, chatting with a few mates here and there to confirm previous opinions and then disengaging whatever is stored 'twixt the ears in order to bash out a few words for the rag that pays the bills.
Sadly, that's pretty much the trend for this federal election, one in which tuning in to CTV, the typical Canadian viewer likely wonders when Bill O'Reilly will be turning up to take Kate Wheeler's spot.
Those are the people who have a problem with Nik Nanos and his numbers.
The rest of us are just enjoying the show.
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Only two short years ago, Provincial Conservatives were lining up to get their picture taken with a Conservative brother running for re-election for what turned out to be the last time.
This ad - paid for by the federal Conservatives - appeared in the Telegram in early December 2005.
The guy seated on the far right of the picture is Loyola Sullivan, the finance minister at the time. He quit federal politics not long after this picture only to take up a job with the federal Conservatives.
The guy behind him is former speaker Harvey Hodder. He retired before the 2007 provincial election.
Immediately to Loyola Hearn's right is Sheila Osborne, part of the Osborne-Ridgley political machine.
The guy standing right behind Loyola Hearn - with that great big grin on his face - is Bob Ridgley, brother of Sheila. You will recall him as the Conservative who supported Belinda Stronach for leader even though, by his own words, he thought she was "shallow as a saucer".
Bob is now Danny Williams' parliamentary assistant.
The other two guys are - left to right - Shawn Skinner and Dave Denine. Skinner is the provincial human resources cabinet minister and Denine is looking after municipal affairs.
You'll recall Skinner was taken to the woodshed by Danny Williams for going off the ABC message track. He was made to apologize publicly for his transgression.
Denine's had a few problems of his own, but never for doing something that went against orders from the top.
Interesting picture that, if only because it makes you wonder when they line up behind a candidate if they really do it out of personal choice or if they have been directed by some authority or other.
Makes you wonder that if they lend you support do they expect a quid pro quo, a back scratch in return.
Makes you wonder what happens if you don't do what they (or the authority doing the directing) wants.
Of course, it makes you wonder too if one of these is Loyola's mole.
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