01 October 2008

A tight race in Avalon? Dream on, baby

NTV and Telelink released a poll on Tuesday on the race in the federal riding of Avalon.

NTV touted it as showing a tight race, with the Conservative incumbent and Liberal challenger separated by only the margin of error for the poll.

Take a look at the undecided in the poll and you can forget about tight races.

39.9%

Yes, 40 percent of the people surveyed said they were undecided. That's 15 percentage points higher than Fabian Manning got and he's in the lead;  his nearest challenger - Liberal Scott Andrews - racked up something around 21%.

Then look at the satisfaction number for the incumbent, Fabian Manning.  Fifty-one percent said they were satisfied with his performance as member of parliament.

Then recall that Fabian Manning has been on the receiving end of a huge amount of attention as the only incumbent Conservative running in this election. The entire rhetorical weight of the Family Feud sat on his shoulders at one time and even though the Premier has backed off somewhat, there's evidently no love loss between the two.

And everyone knows that.

With all the anything but Conservative messaging out there, anyone who has made a clear choice shouldn't feel the least problem in telling the world that they intend to vote Liberal, New Democrat or even that they won't vote.

The large undecided vote in Avalon is most likely comprised of a large group of Manning voters who are simply uncomfortable with saying publicly what they could reasonably perceive as being an unpopular choice.  In some instances, they might even think that expressing their choice that might invite even more pressure against their guy than he's already felt.

Here's another clue:  when asked about the impact of the ABC campaign on their choice, people who selected a non-Conservative choice (i.e. the Liberals and New Democrats) overwhelmingly indicated (66%) that ABC had no impact on their choice.

That leads your humble e-scribbler to conclude that those Grit and Dipper votes were pretty much shored up any way.

Now it is entirely possible that the 40% undecided contains a huge number of people who just won't vote. That still likely works more in Manning's favour than against him.

As a last point, note that Telelink doesn't probe undecideds to determine any leanings or why they are undecided.  That means any detailed analysis  - including this post - is difficult and any comments are conjecture.

Still, you'd have to believe an awful lot of things to believe that the race in Avalon is actually tight.

-srbp-

A-B-C = D-E-A-D

Some local media outlets have taken to tacking obligatory mentions of the ABC thingy onto stories related to the election campaign even when there is absolutely no logical reason to do so.

Despite that effort to keep the thing alive, Danny Williams' office confirmed on Tuesday that the whole thing is deader than a doornail.

They offered up the "he's too busy" excuse.

Uh huh.

Like yesterday when his jag was in his parking space but he sent Kathy Dunderdale down to meeting with people worried the government is about to issue even more fish processing licenses in a market already grossly oversupplied with fish plants.

Yes, Danny Williams turned down yet another request to  campaign.  That is to do more than deliver a bad speech badly to an audience that has heard it a dozen times already.

At some point, the local newsrooms will figure out the real story here and start covering it.

They can find a hint as to the reasons the ABC thingy is a total fiction in at least one Bond Papers post.

-srbp-

30 September 2008

Dion brings in local heavyweight for debate prep

Some people will understand the importance of a seemingly small detail in this ctv.ca story:

According to Liberal insiders, Tim Murphy, Martin's one-time chief of staff, has been playing the role of Harper in the dry runs. Richard Mahoney and Mark Watton, also erstwhile Martin confidants, have played the roles of moderator and NDP Leader Jack Layton respectively.

 

-srbp-

The return of Marg, Princess Warrior

Harper is doomed!

 

CBC has more, including raw video.

-srbp-

Separated at birth: the international Connie speechifying version

Stephen Harper's 2003 speech on Iraq was lifted from a speech by Australian Prime Minister John Howard delivered two days before Harper's oration.

In classic Connie fashion, the gaffe has been blamed on a staffer.  In classic Harper fashion -  and in the interests of direct personal accountability - Harper stuck his spokesperson out front to toss a few  lines at the media.

The guy who wrote the speech is a fellow at the Fraser Institute and used to write speeches for Bill Vander Zalm and Kim Campbell.  Vander Zalm was premier of British Columbia.  Campbell was the short-lived prime minister who succeeded Brian Mulroney until the spectacular political disaster in the 1993 general election when her party was reduced to two seats.

What's update, Doc?

Conservative Doc O'Keefe, the St. John's mayor, wasn't trying to avoid politicizing a portion of the meeting at city hall on Monday night as your humble e-scribbler originally thought.

Turns out the loyal Connie and some of his fellow councilors  - also long-time Connies of the federal and provincial variety - were trying to make a political attack on the Liberal Party's Green Shift.

They were doing so by pretending to be concerned about the cost of the Liberals' environmental policy to taxpayers on things like public transit.

Yes, the boys who helped bring you the Coombs-Wells Memorial Money Pit, a.k.a St. John's Sports and Entertainment and the Mile One Stadium,  have developed a sudden, overwhelming concern for the taxpayer's bank balance.

Let's just take a second while you catch your breath and stop laughing.

Someone may have to get Nan a wee medicinal dram.  The shock of finding out Keith Coombs, Art Puddister and Doc O'Keefe don't want to piss her pension cheque down the nearest toilet is likely to give her the vapours.

According to O'Keefe, city staff figure the Green Shift will cost the city an extra $800,000 in 2012.

To put that in perspective, the annual city budget is currently over $175 million.  Over the past two years O'Keefe and his fellows at city hall boosted the subsidy to the Mile One money pit by more than double the extra 800K.

In making his nakedly partisan attack on the Green Shift, O'Keefe ignored the other aspects of the Liberal plan including federal cash for improvements to public infrastructure, public transit and energy efficiency for homes and buildings.

To really put this in perspective, O'Keefe is one of the crew that agitated for the government gasoline price fixing scheme currently screwing citizens of the province.

His sudden concern for taxpayers is a bit of a stretch.

Councilor Tom Hann - bless his heart - pointed that out to O'Keefe.  The former provincial Liberal candidate went a little gaga by dragging in the Connie Family feud but on the Green Shift part, Hann was spot on.

"I don't think we need to get into the political posturizing [sic]. I'm trying to keep this non-political," O'Keefe said.

Pull the other one, it's got bells on, Doc.

The surest way to cut down greenhouse gases in this city would be to find a way to silence the likes of Coombs, O'Keefe, Puddister and some of the others at city hall. 

Sadly, that isn't likely to happen any time soon, let alone soon enough.

-srbp-

 

 

Surreality Check, SJSMP version

Courtesy of CBC's St. John's Morning Show:

1.  Revanchism Redux.  NL First candidate Greg Byrne - who has been known to back a certain revanchist provincial first minister sans doubt - expresses amazement to a CBC reporter that people follow a certain other first minister unquestioningly.

Bryne apparently has never looked in a mirror.

Byrne is pushing many completely foolish ideas about Equalization and Confederation as part of his campaign.

2.  Meanwhile at Tammany on Gower.... Tom Hann, a St. John's city councilor who was once a federal Liberal riding president in St. John's South-Mount Pearl used a moment at St. John's city council to campaign for the Family Feud.

That's the Conservative family feud, for those who missed it.

Conservative mayor Doc O'Keefe attempted to cut Hann off with an admonition that council was trying to avoid the current federal campaign.  Something about trying not to bring politics into things, something clearly not motivating Conservative O'Keefe whatsoever in his comments.

Hann denied he was campaigning.

Then Hann stated his support for the campaign.

-srbp-

A new meaning to the term "bitch slap"

Wente on Mallick.

Nicely put on both the CBC and Mallick.

-srbp-

29 September 2008

Two degrees of separation, Mulroney space cadet version

One degree.

Two degrees.

It's a small world.

-srbp-

Down at The Mouth

CBC brass pulled Heather Mallick's September 5 opinion piece from The Mother Corp's website in the wake of a hail of criticism from many callers and e-mailer as well as coverage by such bastions of insightful, reasoned and factual commentary as FoxNews and Rush Limbaugh.

In his statement, CBC publisher John Cruikshank called the piece "intensely partisan."

Intense, maybe.

Partisan? 

Debatable.

Sucked?

Much better description that covers everything from its gratuitous smears to its overall poor structure.  Acceptable in some quarters of the blog world.  Not really Cebb fare.

You can still read it, though, at Mallick's website.  Parts of the piece are interesting counterpoint to Mallick's tonguelashing of some of her fellow female columnists' treatment of Julie Couillard's chestal assets.

The Palin column should never have made it to the corporation's Internet space in the first place.  That's a comment on its content and style; not anything on it's qualities, such as the claim by CBC that it is classic political invective - it wouldn't even make the short list on a CBC Great Political Invective series in which second and third rate invective is voted on by ordinary Canadians with nothing better to do with their time than (a) watch the show and (b) make phone calls to support their chosen turd.

Your humble e-scribbler would commend Adam Radwanski's post on it for those interested in the little controversy.

Incidentally, Mallick also writes for the Guardian.  Her September 5 piece for that organ contains a few comments that deserve fact-checking - but on the whole it a more reasoned and insightful critique of Palin.

I never claimed a higher moral standing for coming from a great big empty on the map. Small towns are places that smart people escape from, for privacy, for variety, for intellect, for survival. Palin should have stayed home.

Canada has lots of hockey moms. They're called Fran and Nancy. They have cruel haircuts and their voices shake the rafters of the rink as their rink-rats play. How can I translate the hearty, jollying-along Palin for British audiences? She's a working class Joan Hunter Dunn. It's those volleyball shoulders and field-hockey thighs, the energy, the bullying, and the utter self-confidence in every lie she tells.

Salt-of-the-earthers don't lie! But Palins do. I watched Palin last night, my mouth open, my eyeballs drying out, my hand making shaky notes. I read them aghast.

Did she really joke, "You know the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull? Lipstick."?

Yes, she did, Heather, and in the piggy lipstick kerfuffle south of the border, Americans seemed to miss that rather nasty slur at a female sub-group of which Palin obviously isn't a member. Being a hockey mom isn't a common enough thing among Americans for them to have noticed the Palin slur.  In Canada, she'd have been dragged behind the Zamboni for a few laps, then tied to the uprights so people could take turns pitching empty Timmies cups and stale Timbits at her from centre ice.

None of that matters.

What matters right now is that the mood at the arrogantly-styled Canadian Broadcasting Centre must be dark.

Bill O'Reilly took offense and the Ceeb caved.

-srbp-

Why the rush?

There are signs the Matshishkapeu Accord might run into some trouble in the Innu communities in Labrador.

Not surprising, at all, is that.

Expect some heavy concern among non-aboriginal people in Labrador as well, especially when it gets closer to defining Labrador Innu Land.  Any non-Innu people currently holding title to land in the area will have to be properly compensated or have their title recognized.

The land claim is a long way from settled.  The Lower Churchill deal is a long way from sanctioned if it is sanctioned at all.  These things are complex and they take time to work through all the details.

So one does have to wonder what all the rush was about last week.  By the Premier's own account the deal was cut in a week of intense negotiations that finished in an all-nighter Thursday.  The thing was settled before seven in the morning Friday and the newser was held before anyone had time to do much more than grab a quick show and head to the media gathering.

On something this important, it seems like a rather high pressure tactic to use, one where people are bound to make mistakes in the heat of the moment and under the undue duress of the style.

It's not like really bad deals haven't come out of just such an approach before.

Anyone else remember the mess that came out of just such a high-pressure situation in early June 1990?

Anyone else wonder what Danny Williams would have said if the oil companies tried the same thing on him?

This thing is far from settled.

-srbp-

Pull the other one, Bradley ...

Bradley George of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business says his members want to see taxes lowered to help them deal with labour shortages.

Okay, well, his members always want to see their taxes lowered

The reason isn't important;  lower taxes is a CFIB stock position. Pick an idea.  The CFIB position starts with lowering business taxes.

Not enough money coming coming in from business taxes? Lower business taxes says CFIB.  That kinda thing.

But look, it's hard to take that sort of thing seriously when half of George's members think Hebron is going to happen tomorrow.

Sheesh, next thing, they'll be asking for lower taxes to help them cope with Sasquatch.

-srbp-

28 September 2008

Fully-costed Dipper plan?

Jack Layton is releasing what is supposed to be a fully-costed New Democratic Party election platform.

Jack Layton already committed to handing over  - free of charge ? - the federal government's 8.5% share of the Hibernia offshore megaproject (1.3 billion barrels of oil estimated) to Danny Williams.

Where is the cost of that, Jack?

-srbp-

Nothing could be further from the truth

Hands up anyone who recalls a little spat between the parliamentary press gallery and the Prime Minister's Office over who gets to decide who asks questions during a prime ministerial newser?

Anyone?

Didn't think so.

One of the things Stephen Harper can add to his list of accomplishments is taking the cajones from reporters in the Ottawa press gallery.

The crowd that prided themselves on supposedly liking their meat raw and freshly stripped from the hide of an unsuspecting politician are now dutifully chowing down on whatever scraps their PMO handlers toss them.

Like the whole Daddy Steve series of photo opportunities.

Or the photo gracing the front online page of the Globe this nearly last weekend of the campaign.

364harper It shows the PM in front of a couple of signs held aloft by what appear to be adolescent women.

The signs read "I have a crush on Harper".

Does this not strike anyone as bizarre, in the extreme?

Let's leave aside for a moment the fact the young women appear to be holding the signs carefully so that the photographer they are evidently aware of cannot catch their faces.

When was the last time you can recall a political leader stirring the loins of young women or men in this country spontaneously?

Anyone?

Exactly.  And in this instance, it is clearly nothing more than an organized event, a complete contrivance.

The Conservative Party campaign is so hermetically sealed that a young woman from a television show with her credentials intact is hustled from the room and slapped in handcuffs.  There are many media events where the Prime Minister simply does not take questions.This is not an environment for spontaneity or sarcastic protests. 

Nope.

These sign holders - with their perfect cut out letters and oddly matching design layout - were very likely officially approved participants in the photo op.

What we are looking at here is a fabrication.

They are like the stories of Harper at his high school reunion or with a family, especially babies.

They are to news coverage what those e-mails abut Viagra and some Nigerian bank official with bags of American cash are to your e-mail inbox:

Spam.

However, the taming the gallery goes considerably further than just the odd stunt photo passing as something real. People die from tainted meat.  The agriculture minister discusses the issue on a conference call with government officials and places the handling of the crisis in both a partisan (wrong enough) and a personally partisan context (even wronger).

Reporters pen apologias that make the PMO press wranglers drool in envy, they could never have written stuff that aped sincerity so well.  News rooms, we are told, are places of dark humour.  Just like cabinet ministers' offices. Reporters and editors all deal with such weighty, difficult issues on a daily basis they resort to gallows humour to help them get through.  We must forgive Gerry Ritz for he is just human like the rest of us. 

Apparently, unlike Wayne Easter or the 17 dead and their families who are not part of the circle of people hefting the weight of the world on their shoulders..

And that young woman, slapped in cuffs?  She was from the entertainment side of things and after all, it was - as one report called it - a lighter moment on the tour.  No sarcasm in sight on that one, either.

The Conservatives run television ads which contain false information.  Not a peep of comment, certainly not the torrent with which it should be met when any political party resorts to blatant falsehood as a core part of its campaign.

Then there's the puffin poop.  The smudge of guano vanishes and news reporters trumpet the very wise apology offered by the campaign and wag fingers at the naughty staffers who supposedly slipped off the leash.

In such a tightly control campaign?  Gimme a break.

And the vicious personal attack site on which the guano was now gone?  Absolutely intact and free to continue presenting its officially sanction tripe, ignored by virtually all of the news media.  Its message  - a savage attack on a national party leader's character - survived the contrived apology built around fake bird crap.

The lightweight, the superficial reporting of this election campaign strikes all media forms, public and private. The early gaffes by the Conservative party and its multi-million dollar war room went largely unreported except in a couple of small corners, while the problems in the Liberal campaign, both real and many more imaginary, were front page news.  They continue to be. Whether its the news spaces or the blog spaces, there's an unmistakable tone to the coverage and that tone is light.

It seems to go a bit beyond the normal advantage that goes with incumbency.  There seems to be a certain active collaboration, an apparent willful blindness to the obvious on the part of many news outlets.

That likely sounds awfully familiar to voters in Newfoundland and Labrador.

They saw just Friday past the announcement of yet another investigation into computer security in the provincial government's system; reported straight up with no context,  like say the last time a security breach occurred and the release was turned into its own form of luncheon meat, prepackaged for easier eating by overworked reporters.

Or the "historic" "deal" with the Labrador Innu on Churchill Falls and the Lower Churchill:

CBC:  Instead of taking a direct ownership position, though, the Innu Nation has elected to take an equivalent royalty, which will amount to five per cent of net project revenue.

Globe:  The Innu will get royalties from the new project and, as part of the same agreement announced Friday, will receive millions in compensation for losses suffered in the 1960s when the Upper Churchill project flooded their lands. They also have secured varying rights to 27,000 square miles of land, with legal title to about one-fifth of that.

The same sort of thing is in included in other national and local coverage.

A 20 minute read of the actual agreement shows something else. A trip to the memory hole turns up something else on top of that.

Even old stuff, stuff that long ago was shown to be distorted, misleading and in some aspects downright false reappears in something purporting to be a "reality" check.

The quiet demise of the Family Feud goes unnoticed, even though early reports talked it up as the hottest thing this side of Sarah Palin.

If the polls hold and the Conservatives are re-elected with a strengthened minority or even a majority, odds are that more of the surreal coverage Canadians have seen during the campaign will be commonplace. That's certainly been the case in this neck of the woods under a Provincial Conservative government.

There will undoubtedly be times when it comes to news coverage that Canadians will find themselves falling back on a line that - odds are  - the federal Conservative leader will be using quite a bit, if the pattern holds: 

Nothing could be further from the truth.

-srbp-

27 September 2008

Read the fine print

More than half the owners of small- and medium-sized businesses in Newfoundland and Labrador surveyed by the independent business federation believe the province will have stronger economic performance in the next 12 months.

Okay.

The federation's provincial director, Bradley George, says confidence is on the rise mainly because of the Hebron announcement last month that got the ball rolling on another major offshore oil development.

Stop and read that again.

Especially the last bit:

"Hebron announcement...that got the ball rolling on another major offshore oil development."

Really?

It did?

Boy, are they going to get a rude shock:

The Hebron project has not been sanctioned  and may not be sanctioned, according to the fiscal agreement released on Thursday by the provincial government and only the oil companies can make a decision when - if at all - to develop the project.

That's a huge change in policy for a provincial government that, in the wake of the first Hebron negotiating failure only two years ago, was threatening to legislate development of projects offshore.  The premier and others complained that development could be held up indefinitely by oil companies.

These people read need to read the fine print on these things.

Or at least Bond Papers.

-srbp-

When hum meets chum

First there was "Adios Indy."

Here's how Ryan Cleary described it:

Brian Dobbin, the publisher and financial backer, says his interest is not in Newfoundland anymore. Which is a shame to hear from the Newfoundlander who put so much of the hum in the Humber Valley. He’s disillusioned with this place, to put it mildly, but I’ll leave it to Dobbin to tell his own story. I don’t know the details.

Poor Brian is disillusioned.  Terrible news. Dobbin apparently lost money on the Indy venture over its entire lifespan which, Cleary suggests, was undertaken solely out of Dobbin's interest in journalism and getting to the bottom of stories.

Like the Terra Nova one Cleary mentions. 

What Cleary failed to mention was that the single source they used to support the piece recanted as soon as the thing hit the shelves. The Hibernia one Dobbin was supposedly interested in is also a pack of nonsense.  Cleary never printed anything on it because it doesn't exist.  They couldn't find anything,

Regular Bond Papers readers will recognise Cleary's version of things as a spin job.  You know spin:  it's the word public relations people use instead of the less polite term "bullshit".

Ryan - intrepid fact and truth uncoverer that he claims to be - wasn't happy with just mere "spin" so he torqued things  a bit more for a two-parter in The Current:

From my perspective, I say that Dobbin put a high price on the paper to ensure that any new owner was serious about the newspaper business.

Ryan's writing gives new meaning to "60 cycle hum".

Well, turns out that Cleary missed a hum alright, a hum-dinger of a story.

A handful of months after Disillusioned Dobbin killed the Indy, we discover that Humber Valley is in the hole to the tune of $50 million.

What's worse:

Apparently there was an operational debt of one million dollars per month to run the resort and one and a half million dollars per month to offer the direct flights from Gatwick to Deer Lake.

The monthly losses at the resort were being financed by the parent company and this was threatening the financial well being of the entire company.

Hmmm.

Sounds just like the Indy, which Cleary says cost Dobbin $2.0 million in losses even though - as they always claimed - it was on the verge of breaking even.

Another story, entirely, right there and Ryan missed it.  

Amazing.

Did he ever bother to ask what his free flight cost the company?

If only he'd thought to ask, maybe he'd have had a much bigger story than the one he wrote at the time.

In the meantime, the Humber Valley resort was a great concept.  let's hope it can be salvaged.

-srbp-

Maybe next time we can make s'mores

Walter Noel is becoming something of a legend as a political pyromaniac.

He's seems intent on constantly setting fire to himself or, to be accurate, the smoldering remains of his political reputation.

His staunch defense of spending his constituency cash on gifts of perfume, crystal and clothing serves as gasoline which Noel insists on pouring over himself throughout this campaign.

He'll happily splash anyone else within reach, as well, as he did this week with both his opponent Jack Harris and his fellow Liberal candidate Judy Foote. Those two have been able to douse any fires with simple, straightforward explanations. 

The problem for Noel - and the flamethrower he brings to his self-roasting  - is his repeated excuse that his spending was within the rules and approved by the "highest officials of the House of Assembly."

Sure, Walter. 

We already know the "rules" were all but non-existent and one of those "highest" officials is currently facing criminal charges.

Noel has even gone so far as to claim his bone-headed actions in defended the misspending are brave or some such bit of silliness.

Well, the flames were barely fading from his latest round of bravery when the Telegram dutifully reminded everyone in the Saturday edition that Noel managed to blow an entire year's worth of public money in a single six month spree between April and October 2003. The genesis of this latest story was a news release Noel issued defending himself on the whole issue which itself resulted from some other media story generated by yet another brave defence by Noel

Amazing.

Noel's top expense that year was advertising: $3,261. He spent nearly $2,950 on over 50 restaurant and food claims - an average of about two per week. Brochures cost Noel just over $2,000; donations, nearly $1,800 more. Noel was also reimbursed for $1,367 in alcohol-only purchases at liquor stores.

Bear in mind that at the time Noel was a provincial cabinet minister with access to another sizeable expense account. We can only wait for the juicy revelations that come from the Telegram's investigation of that spending as well.

In itself, the spending is something voters might possibly have been able to get over in time.  Noel's repeated use of what amounts to easily refutable excuses - the "highest officials" crap - calls into question his judgment.

And his vehemence doesn't just make one a little uncomfortable. 

Coupled with his ludicrous plan to study building a tunnel to Bell Island, his unsubstantiated claims about his part in the 2004/05 offshore transfer deal, his pseudo-separatist dalliances, and his ranting about the "socialist" hordes in the New Democratic Party and their overspending way, his repeated defence of his own overspending suggests Noel is completely out of touch with anything vaguely resembling reality, political or otherwise.

Three things follow from all this:

First, the Liberal Party in Newfoundland and Labrador needs to tighten up its candidate vetting process and candidate selection process.  Big time.

Second, Noel's political future is deader than dead to the point that his vote count in this federal election might wind up being barely above his 1974 first effort.  Incidentally, that's when he ran on behalf of the "socialist" hordes.

Third,  Noel's only political value to this race - and it is sad to see it happen - is to give the only bit of light entertainment to a race otherwise made boring now that Danny Williams has abandoned his Family Feud campaign entirely.

If Noel wants to keep setting his own political ass on fire, there's not much any of us can do except sit back and shake our heads.

Oh, yes.

And maybe next time we can make s'mores.

That's about the only way Noel's candidacy can be said to have contributed anything to the current election.

-srbp-

26 September 2008

The Matshishkapeu Accord?

Some curious details lay in the clauses of an agreement announced today between the provincial government energy corporation and representatives of the Innu people of Labrador. Any lawyers out there who want to offer a different view or take issue with the following are welcome to do so.

Churchill Falls

CFLCo Privatization:  In the Upper Churchill section, for example, there is reference to a potential sale of the Newfoundland and Labrador interest in Churchill Falls Labrador Corporation to as yet unknown private investors. The "parent company" is the province's energy corporation.

For all the nationalist posturing by the current administration, it's curious to see a contingency established for the sale of such an important asset.  Language referring to the privatization of public companies exists in the energy corporation legislation.

Just the existing project:  The compensation payments to the Innu apply only to the existing physical plant of CFLCo.  Any expansions in the future aren't subject to the agreement.

Don't count your Chickens:  Clause 2 (a) establishes an annual payment of $2.0 million paid by the provincial government to the Innu Nation but it only begins on ratification and execution of the impact and benefits agreement...for the Lower Churchill project. No Lower Churchill;  no cash

Don't count your Chickens 2: Clause 2 (b) provides for an additional 3% of dividends received by the provincial government "directly or through a corporation owned by the Province." Someone might want to double check.  The Province - i.e. the provincial government - doesn't get CFLCo dividends directly.

As for a corporation "owned by the Province", that would refer to Nl Hydro, the company that holds the provincial government's 65% interest in the company that runs Churchill Falls.   It used to be held by NL Hydro and that company didn't declare any dividends in 2007.  Three percent of zero is...well... zero. Let's not even get into a discussion of the express statement that the percentage would only be paid on dividends on common shares.

Count those Upper chickens for the last time:  The payments under Clause 2 (a) and (b) are effective only if the Innu agree to give up any and all claims past, present and future related to aboriginal rights on the Churchill Falls project.

Lower Churchill

Don't count the Lower chickens either: Any payments are expressly tied to the sanction of the Lower Churchill project.

Don't count your chickens 3: The energy corporation will pay a minimum of $5.0 million annually to the Innu Nation from the period between first project sanction and first commercial power.  The payments run for a maximum of 10 years and can stop if the project stops for some reason.

After first commercial power, the energy corporation will pay the greater of the minimum payment and five percent (5%) of annual Net After Debt Cash Flow.

Sounds wonderful, except for two things.  At the front end of this project - if it even starts in the first place - that net after debt cash flow might be a really tiny number. It could be a negative number.  Read the definition of net after debt cash flow contained in the agreement and you can see the only thing not included in the calculation is the proverbial kitchen sink purchase and operating costs on the outhouses at the site, amortized over the life of the project and including an allowance for annual kitchen sink replacement, repair, refit, redesign and eventual decommissioning.

That would be very bad for the Innu because of the second thing.  Clause 3(c)(ii) states that 10 years after project sanction, that minimum payment of $5.0 million is equal to zero.  Nada. Zip.

And remember, the clock starts ticking from project sanction, not from construction.  If it takes the project 10 years to get on stream, the Innu could wind up receiving nary a penny once the power starts flowing. 

The ghost in the turbines:  Talk about your Churchill Falls.  Oy vey!

Even with that deal the provincial government gets something.  In this case, the Innu will have to settle all claims for the promise of getting $50 million ($5 million a year for $10 years).  And at the point power starts flowing? Potentially receiving absolutely nothing at all or a trifling amount for an unknown point beyond that.

Of course, if the corporation is sold off in the meantime, then the whole thing stops anyway. The agreement is oddly silent on that eventuality but odds are the clever legal bunnies working for the energy corporation know that not much would come of an Innu legal challenge. 

In order to get the first cash, they have to sign away all future claims and indemnify the energy corporation to boot.

-srbp-

And now the East Blocheads...

With the Bloc tanking in Quebec, it seems only fitting that the completely bankrupt idea should now spread east to a band of three people running under the Newfoundland and Labrador First Party.

Greg Byrne, the guy quoted in the story, lives in British Columbia.  He's running in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

The party is led by a former Provincial Conservative cabinet minister.

Note that last line of Byrne's interview with Radio Canada (the first link above).  Nl First wants to change "the system".

Et si ça ne fonctionne pas, Greg Byrne envisage la création d'un parti pancanadien qui inclurait toutes les provinces à l'exception du Québec et de l'Ontario.

And if that doesn't works, sez Byrne, they'll just form a party that includes people from all across Canada, except Ontario and Quebec.

After that they'd probably let in people from the other two provinces and succeed in creating...

a political party of the type they claim is currently causing all the problems with the country.

Who said les Rhinos were dead?

-srbp-

25 September 2008

You be the judge

Voice of the cabinet minister wrote it up as if the Great Oracle of the Valley had misquoted Danny Williams. Looks like it was hastily written and hastily posted to the VO website:
Who Said What?
September 25, 2008
The premier says he was misquoted. Danny williams [sic] today emphasized he did not say the nurses (sic) union came to the table during the most recent session with a new list of fiinancial [sic] demands. We had indicated he said they were new. He actually said it was a list of proposals that.(sic) carried financial costs. Today williams [sic] made sure the union knew what he actually said. He phoned debbie [sic] forward.
Well, here's what the said, followed by what he now claims he said. (mp3 file link to VOCM: http://www.vocm.com/audioClips/508125_danny%20(web).mp3)

You be the judge.
-srbp-
Almost immediate update:

After a bit of searching, your humble e-scribbler turned up the two original stories.

First came this one:
Premier Says Offer to Nurses Fair
September 24, 2008

Government has thrown cold water on hopes by nurses and other public sector workers that they might be in line for the same 35 per cent wage hike given to cancer specialists. The Nurses' Union walked away from the table last week, apparently unwilling to go along with the province's standard offer of twenty per cent over four years. Premier Williams says the situation with the gynecological oncologists was a special case and hence the 35 percent salary increase. He says the offer to nurses of 20 percent over four years is fair. Williams says recent conciliation ended because the nurses brought a long list of new financial demands to the table.
The VOCM story containing Debbie Forward's reply is also pretty clear:
Nurses' Union Fuming Over Premier's Remarks
September 25, 2008

The president of the Nurses' Union is fuming in the wake of comments from the premier on their dispute with government. This week the premier said recent conciliation talks ended because the nurses brought a long list of new financial demands to the table. Debbie Forward says the union brought no new items to the table when they met last. Forward says they were hoping to get a response to proposals the union had brought to the table earlier this year, but that didn't happen. Forward says her members are very upset about the premier's comments.
A transcript of the original voice clip from a VO story on 24 September was included in a news release from Conservative candidate Craig Westcott that took issue with the Premier's comments as reported by VOCM yesterday. Westcott's been working hard to get a rise out of Danny the past couple of days, including likening him to a mafia godfather.

Anyway, the transcript of the original clip is important because the version here contains some words that aren't in the revised VO version:
"(The Nurses' Union) came in with 27 or 28 financial asks, one of those being obviously the salary template, but other financial increments. So, 26, 27 other items. Now we can't deal, we can't negotiate on that basis. If we can get down to a realistic shortlist that we can address, then maybe we're able to address some of the concerns…"
Was he misquoted?

You be the judge.