A million monkeys…

There’s an old joke about putting a millions to work banging away at typewriters.  Eventually, according to the law of averages, probability or whatever these things are governed by, those monkeys might bang out the Encyclopaedia Britannica.

By accident.

That’s the first thought that crossed ye olde scribbler’s mind on reading a post over at Christopher Locket’s blog An Ontarian in Newfoundland.  “Lockett’s first law of Internet-based research” holds that:

THE RELIABILITY OF A GIVEN WIKIPEDIA ENTRY IS IN DIRECT PROPORTION TO THE GEEKINESS OF THE TOPIC'S MOST PROMINENT AUDIENCE.

He’s right.  An obscure topic is less likely to be given the intense scrutiny of an Internet peer and multiple edits on a site like Wikipedia.

One point Lockett touches on is the idea that much can be learned from doing research the old-fashioned way.  There is context, for example, in the books on a shelf that have been sorted according to the library’s cataloguing system. 

But that’s not the whole story.  You can stumble across stuff inadvertently but even in wandering the stacks, the poor or average researcher can miss a great deal.  To really appreciate the library and to use it to full advantage one ought to understand how the cataloguing system works.  Otherwise, you are stuck with information filtered through the logic of the cataloguing system and the librarian who decided where that book fits. Unless you take time to think of ideas, concepts and words that are related to your topic, you might miss a great deal of fascinating  - and relevant – stuff if you limit yourself to the genius of Dewey or the Library of Congress.

Lockett goes as far as to ban Internet based sources from papers in some of his undergraduate courses:  a URL in a footnote is an automatic fail. That may seem harsh to some, but at the beginning, doing stuff the old-fashioned way can be a useful method of illustrating a number of valuable lessons.

To force the logical leap in this little post, though, a wander through the stacks is a bit like using a search engine like google.  People bash in words and links pop out based on a complex calculation that remains inscrutable to most web users.  What pops out as part of any given search is often – essentially - random.  If people get useful links, let alone reliable ones, it is often as the result of happenstance.

One of the enduring sources of amusement Chez Scribbler is the check of keyword search terms that people use before ending up reading something on Bond Papers.  That’s where you get to see those sorts of things for real. 

Sure, there are the people searching for this blog by title.   There are search words that come up every week.  “Court docket” has been so popular since the day they were posted that both the Supreme Court and Provincial Court earned a spot right up at the top of a side bar.  There are the regular hunts for Janice Mackey Freyer and her alter ego ‘P.J. Jazzy Jan.”

And not to be outdone, the post containing the phrase “squirrel’s are the Devil’s oven mitts” actually scored as the most popular specific page for over 24 hours.  No fewer than 10 people from across North America and Europe searched it at the same time.

Then there are the ones you could consider to be the babes in the woods.  They are like the proverbial million monkeys typing in that they are unlikely to get much of any value in completing their term paper.  You can tell it is a term paper, incidentally, because the search words consist of entire sentences or portions of sentences that have been cut and pasted from the assignment.

This week’s winner in the crap search sweepstakes would have to go to some poor sod  - you could not make this up - who used Yahoo! to search for “how inextricably interconnected with social, economic and political that constitute communities”.

Follow that link and you will notice that Bond Papers turned up as the second item on the page.

But it’s the second link on the sixth page of returns.  If this lost soul knew anything, he’d know that anything on the sixth page of any set of search results is likely of no conceivable relevance to whatever he was trying to find in the first place. Yet, as one might suspect, this benighted soul likely clicked and read every, single one of the links from one to umpteen. 

There’s no way of knowing which of them turned up in the term paper or whatever the assignment was.  odds are, though, that it fit perfectly the outcome Lockett described in a comment following that post of his:

It is a paradox, isn't it? Nearly infinite information available at a keystroke, and so frequently it ends up rendering inane, incorrect or simply reductive research.

What you wind up getting, for the most part, is  basically what you’d get from the million monkeys before they typed out the Britannica.

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Law Test Addendum:  Search for “million monkeys” and you will find a Wikipedia entry on the Infinite Monkey Theorem:

The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type a given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare.

Western Star raises issue of Danny Williams’ resignation

The Western Star, the only other daily newspaper in Newfoundland and Labrador and the newspaper in the Premier’s district, is raising the prospect that it might be time for Danny Williams to retire:

We’re nearing the end of Williams’ second term at the helm of the province, and it could be time for him to re-evaluate his wish to carry on.

The suggestion comes as a result of Williams’ bizarre meltdown on Tuesday answering questions from New Democrat leader Lorraine Michael:

Barking across the floor is nothing new for Williams but his attack on NDP leader Lorraine Michael seemed to be a little more than the usual bare-knuckle back and forth.

The premier seemed visibly unnerved by the questions about the protracted talks with the doctors ... and dismissive of the questioner. [Emphasis added]

Wow.  Williams was something, but whether it was unnerved or just frustrated at having to run a different game from his finance minister – a house divided? – is another question.

The Star’s suggestion comes complete with a fairly obvious rationale;

It’s a good time to decide if he has the desire to carry on in public life — there are still a couple of years before the next election, the Liberals are having a leadership convention in the fall and there are plenty of Tories who would love a shot at the top job.

Williams talked about resigning in 2006 during his year-end interviews. Here’s the way your humble e-scribbler put it at the time:

Williams announced his resignation - actually that he would not seek a third term in 2011 - in comments made to VOCM and then repeated in subsequent year-end interviews.

Williams' resignation, likely to come in 2009 or 2010 after a decision on the Lower Churchill, comes at the end of a year of continued set-backs for the premier who has been in equal measures petulant and posturing.

He’s also said more recently that he would stick around for another term. But that was before the world knew of Williams’ health issues.  it was also before the scope of the province’s financial problems became clear.  Then there is the ongoing problem with the hasty confiscation of assets belonging to three companies in central Newfoundland.  None have been compensated and the litigation and other costs for the venture are mounting.

Meanwhile, for all the talk about it, the Lower Churchill, remains an essentially fictitious project.  With no markets and no money to build the  $6.0 to $10.0 billion project, it isn’t going anywhere soon.

All that would weigh on any politician’s mind.  But it must weigh especially heavily on the brow of a man who, from the day he was sworn in as Premier, made it abundantly he clear he found the level of scrutiny he faced to be a burden that sometimes seemed beyond bearing.  Williams has had a soft ride from the media until more recently but still he bitched at every opportunity at the questions.

But as the news media environment in the province has returned to normal lately, not a single reporter or editorialist has broached the idea Williams’ might consider resigning.

Until now.

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Strategic Social Plan (1995) – Social Profile

This Province's unique advantage is the strength of character, resilience, ingenuity and enterprise of its people. In the past 50 years, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have experienced a political, cultural, economic, and social revolution.

People who have not yet reached retirement age have lived through, and coped with, the events of World War II and the impact of the establishment and subsequent decline of American and Canadian military bases; the dawn of the nuclear age; the change of political status from a British dominion to a province of Canada; the surge toward industrial development, inflow of national and multinational companies, globalization of trade, decline of traditional resource industries and shift to new-economy enterprises; the disappearance of hundreds of small rural communities; the victory over tuberculosis, and the threat of AIDS; progress in achieving women's rights and equality of opportunity and the emergence of women as a force for social change, economic renewal, and expansion of the labour market; changes in traditional family structures; the establishment of social safety nets such as unemployment insurance, social security programs, and universal health care; chronic unemployment, the loss of career security and the increase in public awareness of, and concern for, the environment.

The pace of change has been challenging for North America generally, but it has been more dramatic in Newfoundland and Labrador because of the relatively sheltered existence and relaxed lifestyle which we enjoyed before the flood of highways, radio and television, fast-food and retail chains, and computers. Other people in cities and towns across Canada and the United States have not had to make such a quantum leap economically and culturally in the past half-century.  It is a long way indeed from pondering the literary delights of The Royal Readers to indulging in nightly armchair visits to the televised violence in the streets of downtown Detroit.

Economists and historians talk of the three great revolutions which have shaped civilization: the agrarian (natural resource), industrial, and information ages. Many Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have experienced all three eras in the condensed time frame of the past five decades.

We have not only withstood such immense culture shock, but we have profited by it. This Province's unique advantage is the strength of character, resilience, ingenuity and enterprise of its people which has endured and intensified through 500 years of colourful, often chaotic, and always challenge-filled history. We have a tradition of turning constraints into opportunities, adversity into achievement, and despair into hope. It is this legacy of self-reliant determination and creativity that has sustained Newfoundland and Labrador through recession, fiscal restraint and the loss of its basic resource industry, and is building an economy that will be stronger and more diversified in the global market-place. It is also the force which must be brought to bear upon the challenge of effectively addressing social changes and issues of the late 1990s, identifying future trends and planning appropriate long-term strategy and allocating available financial resources in a manner that supports the goals and objectives.

In this respect, the Province's social ing efforts are constrained by national fiscal  realities. Social reform in Canada today is characterized by reductions in Unemployment Insurance benefits, limita­tions on the Canada Assistance Plan, re-evaluation of health care, less federal assistance for education and training, and a move toward block funding for overall provincial social programs.  Untenable and unsustainable national and provincial debt loads and lower transfer payments combine to further restrict the ability of Newfoundland and Labrador to address pressing social issues. The comparative national and provincial fiscal resources are shown in Figure 3.

The message is clear:  we have to find ways and means to spend smarter; in other words to do more with less.  It is a daunting challenge.

In order to accomplish this task, we must first consider realistically where we are and where we are heading as a province.  We cannot address 21st century problems with 20th century (or in some cases 19th century) approaches, solutions, or attitudes.

Although sectoral issues and trends will be dealt with in greater detail in succeeding chapters of this Consultation Paper, certain elements of our Provincial social profile are highlighted in this section in order to put the planning exercise in perspective and to provide the basis for determining an overall social vision, appropriate guiding principles, and attainable goals and objectives.

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Next:  Demographic Change and Challenge

Strategic Social Plan (1995) - Introduction

In June 1992, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador released Change and Challenge, the Province's Strategic Economic Plan. In the preparation of this document, involving an extensive public consultation process, it was stated repeatedly that economic planning was — in the words of Premier Wells — "only one half of the equation”. It was recognized that planning for the future development of the Province and the well-being of its people cannot be done on the basis of economic factors alone; it must embrace the social component as well.

This "other half of the equation" must reflect the needs of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador for more effective and equitable distribution of social services and benefits, improvement of educational levels, and progressive and innovative programs in health care and justice.

Social planning is not a "necessary evil” which must be accommodated within economic activity. It is the hallmark of a caring, democratic society. However, it cannot be conducted in isolation, oblivious to the economic realities which dictate the extent of the fiscal resources which are available to provide the social services that are needed.

Indeed the sheer weight of Provincial social spending demands that programs be carefully examined and prioritized, or the economy will be unable to sustain them. In the current Provincial budget of over $3.5 billion, 67.8 percent ($2,402172,000) will be spent in the social sector as compared to 5.6 percent ($198,474,000) in economic development (see Figure 1 and 2) The combined expenditure of the Departments of Industry, Trade and Technology, Natural Resources, Tourism, Culture and Recreation, Fisheries, Food and Agriculture, and Environment are less than 55 percent of the cost of the Department of Social Services alone, and little more than one-fifth the cost of health care in the Province.

These costs have been more than the Province's tax base can bear, and consequently the direct Provincial debt has increased almost every year since Confederation until it now totals more than $6 billion and costs more than $540 million a year to service. The problem of serving a small population in more than 700 communities scattered over a large land-mass becomes clear when compared to other geographic and demographic indicators.

For example, the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador is large enough to accommodate the entire United Kingdom — England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland — and still have enough room left over to take the provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. Yet, our population is less than the city of Winnipeg.

These 576,000 souls maintain 8,900 kilometres of roads, 67 heath care institutions including hospitals, nursing homes and service agencies, 476 schools, a university and 23 facilities for community colleges and vocational training, and all the trappings of modern North American society. It is a financial burden that can only be borne by a strong and vibrant economy, and demands that priority attention be given to the task of increasing Provincial

revenues through stimulating new and existing enterprises. Without private sector business growth, we cannot survive as a province. At the same time, social services and facilities must be operated as efficiently as possible without sacrificing essential programs for health, education, and public safety.

Obviously, economic and social planning are inextricably linked. But they must be linked in support of each other, not in conflict or competition. They must be partners, not adversaries, and a viable economy and effective social system both depend on a healthy and sustainable environment. The three together constitute our human ecosystem. The simple fact is that in the everyday living of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, social and economic factors merge into one single, simple priority: Quality of Life. Whether wealthy or impoverished, people share the same needs for health, happiness, enlightenment, security, freedom, opportunity, and community.

No one living in this Province wishes to create wealth either individually or collectively by wreaking third-world conditions on our physical environment or standard of living. The collapse of our basic resource industry through the devastation of groundfish stocks through foreign over-fishing, errors in resource management, and local over-production has demonstrated with a vengeance that it profits us nothing to gain short-term prosperity if we destroy our long-term resources in the process.

At the same time, no one will dispute that we cannot maintain our quality of life without a stronger economic base. In other words, we cannot build a vibrant economy without a strong social structure; neither can we maintain vital social support programs nor preserve our culture and quality of life without strong economic growth.

Accordingly, on March 4, 1993 the Throne Speech in the House of Assembly committed Government to continue its planning process with the development of a Strategic Social Plan as the essential and equal partner to the successful and highly-acclaimed economic plan. A Strategic Social Planning Committee of senior officials was established immediately, and work began on the first phase of the process, i.e., the initial task of reviewing all Government social programs and policies, studying emerging social trends locally and globally, collecting and analyzing data, and preparing discussion papers for Cabinet consideration. The result of that activity is this Consultation Paper which is offered for public consideration, discussion, and commentary in the second phase of the process.

As in the case of the Strategic Economic Plan, the public consultation will be conducted independently of Government to provide opportunity for objective and effective participation by the widest possible representation of the general public. The input of the people who participate in this process will be incorporated into the third phase of the process: the development, release and implementation of the completed Provincial Strategic Social Plan.

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Next:  Background – Social Profile

Dust to dust

Apparently, the last wish of the Icelandic economy was to have its ashes scattered across Europe.

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Desperate Remedies

All principle converts to cash.

The official policy is reductio ad argentum.  As your humble e-scribbler put it only a few weeks ago:

Take a look at the current administration and you can quickly see the prominent role money plays.  In fact, money is the only real measure of anything.  News releases typically refer to how much money will be spent and how much has been spent.

To wit, from the House of Assembly, The Native, returned again from sunnier climes, and on the first day the House sat in three weeks, bristles as his own weapon – the condescending lecture – is turned against him:

Thank you for the Sermon on the Mount. That was lovely; I really appreciated it. I do not need a lecture from you or anybody else, I can tell you that much.

We are trying to get this resolved. There is a letter that is going out this afternoon that is putting $79 million of public money on the table and offering close to Atlantic parity which is exactly what the doctors have been looking for….

…

Mr. Speaker, what did we do when the ER-PR situation came up? What did we do when the oncologists wanted to meet? What did we do when they wanted to have a raise? We acted immediately. We gave them a significant raise which virtually put them close to Ontario parity. So we stepped up immediately.

What have we done as a government? We are now up to, I guess, close to $2.6 billion or $2.7 billion. That is what we have done; we have dramatically increased it. We have put money into information technology. We have put money into equipment. We have put money into long-term care facilities. We have put money into nurses.

…

Neither the issue or the sides in the current dispute are important for this discussion here.

Rather, notice that the only perspective the Premier took was one that considered how much money had been spent or how much he was proposing be spent.

Action is spending money and spending money is the only action the Premier seems to understand.

In another part of his exchange with New Democratic Party leader Lorraine Michael, the Premier put it this way:

There is never enough money around because all you want to do is criticize; get on the bandwagon!

That last exclamation  - as misplaced as it is even in a sentence that itself makes no sense – adequately conveys the essence of the rather bizarre tirade which the Premier delivered in his responses to Michael’s questions.

But there is no mistaking the connection the Premier makes between spending money and displaying interest, concern or attention.

It is always about spending money.

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Offshore board announces 2010 land sale

The official release:

“The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) announced today the details of the 2010 Call for Bids in the Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Area. Call for Bids NL10-01 (Jeanne d’Arc Basin) will consist of two parcels, which comprise 169,400 hectares.

Interested parties will have until 4:00 p.m. on November 17, 2010 to submit sealed bids for parcels offered in Call for Bids NL10-01 (Jeanne d’Arc Basin). The sole criterion for selecting winning bids will be the total amount of money the bidder commits to spend on exploration of the respective parcel during Period I (the first five years of a nine-year licence). The minimum bid for each parcel offered in the Call for Bids, Jeanne d’Arc Basin, is one million dollars.

The Call for Bids contains provisions for rentals during the term of an exploration licence and during the term of any resulting significant discovery licence. This Call for Bids contains a sample exploration licence which incorporates a sample significant discovery licence. This area has been previously assessed to identify any mitigative measures that may be required in relation to exploration activity on these parcels. Notification of any changes made to this Call for Bids will be posted on the Board’s website.

Subject to Ministerial approval, successful bidders will be issued an exploration licence for a term of nine years; however, during Period I, a well must be spudded to validate the licence for the full nine-year term.

For a complete copy of the text of the Call for Bids, visit the C-NLOPB website at www.cnlopb.nl.ca.”

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Megamania: Wacky edition

A 40-year-old hydro-electric megaproject, on a river already home to massive hydro development, estimated to cost at least $6 billion, that will add dramatically to the provincial debt load for 30 or 40 years.

Lower Churchill?

Nope.

British Columbia.

The whole thing is a throw-back to British Columbia’s longest-serving Premier.  W.A.C. Bennett  - known derisively as Wacky - served from 1952 until 1972.

The Lower Churchill dates back to the time of Newfoundland and Labrador’s longest-serving Premier.  Joe Smallwood – who many considered wacky – served from 1949 to 1972.

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Strategic Social Plan (1995) - Forward

This Strategic Social Plan Consultation Paper initiates the final phase of an intensive Provincial planning process which began more than six years ago. When this Government took office in 1989, we made a commitment to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador to review all economic and social programs and mandates and to develop strategic plans to carry the Province through the turbulent changes of the 1990s into a stronger future in the 21st century.

In the fall of 1990, Government began the first phase of this planning process through a review of economy's strengths and weaknesses, examination of the activities and policies of economic departments and agencies, and the subsequent development of a public consultation paper to provide an opportunity for the people of the Province to have direct input into the vision, guiding principles, and actions that eventually became the Strategic Economic Plan (SEP).

When the SEP was released in June 1992, however, we stressed that it was only half of the planning cess. Economic issues cannot be examined or addressed in isolation from social issues and realities, and it was imperative to move on to the second phase of our strategic planning: the development of a Strategic Social Plan. A Social Planning Group (SPG) of senior officials was established, and on March 4, 1993, the Throne Speech in the House of Assembly reaffirmed Government's commitment to the development of a Strategic Social Plan as the essential and equal partner to the SEP.

During the past three years, the SPG faced many challenges in their task of researching global trends reviewing programs and policies. Unlike economic planning activity, strategic social planning models were virtually unknown, and the Group were for the most part breaking new ground. In addition, they were caught in a maelstrom of social change and reform at both the Provincial and Federal levels, and were obliged to constantly revise data and projections to keep pace with national social reforms and in funding.

Nevertheless, the work of the SPG progressed to the point where relatively stable data could be provided to Cabinet and a consultation paper could be developed. This document is not a final Strategic Social Plan but it is a clear statement of the direction in which Government intends to proceed in terms of providing essential services for the social well-being of our citizens in as effective and efficient as possible. We now invite comment and suggestions from the people of Newfoundland and through the extensive public consultation process which will precede the development of the Strategic Social Plan.

I encourage all citizens, and especially organizations concerned with various social issues, to examine this paper thoroughly and to give serious consideration to the social challenges that are outlined and to the strategies and actions that are proposed. I look forward to receiving the thoughtful views of people throughout the Province as we continue the process of planning our social order for generations to come.

[original signed by]

Clyde K. Wells

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To come:  “Introduction and Background”

• Introduction
• Social profile
• Demographic Change and Challenge
• Living in a Different World
• Realities
• Principles
• Vision

Explanatory Note:  The 159 page Strategic Social Plan [SSP] consultation paper is being presented in a series of instalments.  A companion to the 1992 Strategic Economic Plan, it lays out both a clear statement of where the province was in 1995,  the challenges to be faced in the future and policies to deal with those challenges successfully.

Approved by cabinet for release in December 1995, the 1,000 copies of the consultation document were ordered destroyed by the Tobin administration in 1996.  Only a handful of copies survived.

The planned consultation never took place.  Instead, and while something subsequently emerged which was labelled a Strategic Social Plan, the new Tobin administration went down an entirely different road from the one envisaged in the 1995 consultation paper.

Some specific initiatives from the 1995 document did make it into action.  Others did not. Unfortunately, the fundamental approach – the integrated concept – that underpinned the strategy went out the window with the change of administration in January 1996. 

It never returned.

The current state of the provincial government – unsustainable levels of public spending in an increasingly fragile economy – are a direct result. 

In a province facing an uncertain future, where political leaders are devoid of ideas, let alone sustainable or new ones, the 1995 Strategic Social Plan remains relevant.

Taking responsibility – comments, courts and disclosure

A Nova Scotia court decision last week ordering The Coast to cough up details of people who left comments on the newspaper’s website caused a bit of a stir in some communities over the weekend.

The Telegram Saturday editorial takes up the issue, as does Telly editor Pam Frampton in her weekend column.  There’s also an editorial in Halifax’s major daily the Chronicle-Herald.

Each focuses on the the idea that people making comments online should not expect complete anonymity.  They should be expected to take responsibility for their words. As the Herald editorialist concludes:

The bottom line is that freedom of speech online has no exemption from the same legal limitations that exist everywhere else in society.

Amen to that, brothers and sisters.

But with your head suitably swollen with such lofty thoughts, go to The Coast website and look at what is actually there in the stories stories about the Halifax regional fire department and allegations of racism.

That’s where things get a wee bit more complicated.

For starters, the two people who sought the identities of the commenters were not just “two firefighters” as both the Herald and the Telegram opted to describe them. Rather they were the chief and deputy chief of the department.  Both are directly involved in a human rights case launched by a group of black firefighters that alleges not only that racism takes place with the regional fire department but also that senior officials did not act promptly to deal with the issues.

Next, take a look at the comments under the various Coast stories dating back to last spring. Unless the Coast has removed the comments – there doesn’t seem to be any sign of that -  it’s pretty hard to find one which connects the two applicants directly with alleged actions.

With that done, you should realise there might be more to this story than meets the eye.  Someone might want to take a hard look at the speed with which the judge in this case issued the order.  A similar case in Ontario – as the Herald notes – is still awaiting decision.

If nothing else,  people might want to consider the implication of any such easy order for whistleblowers, especially in a province  with no legal protection for disclosure of confidential information in the public interest. 

Again, the Herald raised that point but did nothing with it in the editorial. 

Nova Scotia provincial public servants are protected by a set of regulations but it doesn’t appear those protections extend to municipal employees. In Newfoundland and Labrador, public interest disclosure is looked upon, apparently, with the same disdain as any disclosure of information under the province’s access to information laws.  Although the current administration promised a whistleblower bill in 2007, there’s no sign one will come to the legislature while the current administration is in power.

Some commentators criticised the editors at The Coast for stating they will quickly comply with the court order.  The editors are right to do so.  If there is libel in the comments, then those defamed have the right to seek redress. No one should be able to make scurrilous, defamatory comments with impunity:  speech online ought to be subject to the same law as speech everywhere else in this country. 

At the same time, though, those same commentators ought to realise that free speech isn’t really threatened in this case.  Even in the worst scenario where now or in the future someone tries to silence legitimate speech with the chill of legal action, the Coast editors are likely to pursue that issue with the same vigour they have used thus far in tackling the allegations of racism within Nova Scotia society.

A free press stands alongside free speech as a means of ensuring that those in power are held to account.  Both are secure in this Nova Scotia example.

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Will Americans shift oil attention to own offshore?

According to figures in a 2006 study for the United States federal government, the Atlantic offshore area that may be opened soon to drilling likely contains at least 3.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

That puts it on par with the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore.

But the total United States offshore potential is more than 86 billion barrels of oil and 419 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

President Barack Obama committed last month to open up portions of the American offshore to drilling. 

Obama talked about the same issue during the election campaign in 2008 saying he was willing to consider lifting the current ban if it would mean lower prices for American consumers.

So far the major oil companies are sending positive signals about the decision.  It’s also a bit too soon to see what impact this may have on exploration offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

This is a development worth keeping an eye on, however.  Given a choice between working at home in stable working environment and working in places where policies tend to shift erratically, the big oil companies with the deep pockets may opt for working closer to home.

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NL manufacturing nosedived in February

Manufacturing sales in Newfoundland and Labrador dropped almost 40% in February 2010 compared to February 2009, according to figures released by Statistics Canada on April 16.

Manufacturing in February was down 33% from the previous month.  No other province registered double-digit drops.

By contrast, manufacturing sector sales were up 6.4% nationally. New Brunswick registered a 26% increase in manufacturing year over year while Ontario was up 10%.

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Offshore oil production remained down in February

Oil production offshore Newfoundland and Labrador continued to trend lower in February 2010, despite continued high oil prices.

Total production from the Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose fields hit 8,213,115 barrels according to figures produced by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Regulatory Board.

That’s down from 9.5 million barrels in February 2009 and 10.1 million barrels in February 2008.

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I thought *you* had jobs to send to *us*…

Take a look at the very limited amount coverage available on the Internet about the southern governors and Canadian premiers conference.

There are lots of platitudes about relationships.  There was plenty of interest in energy jobs. But aside from vapid comments about things like the international awareness of American business leaders – they are apparently very, very good -  there wasn’t much of substance coming from any mouths.

That’s hardly surprising:  the southern United States is looking for people to move in a create local jobs. Take, for example, the situation in Alabama, as described by an editorial in the Anniston Star newspaper:

It's a non-debatable, obvious fact. Alabama needs jobs.

Anniston – roughly the size of Corner Brook - is looking for someone to come to the state, set up a business and create jobs for Alabamans. Neal Wade, of the state economic development agency, told Associated Press [quoted in the Anniston Star]:

"What we want to see is not just the assembly jobs, but the research and development, renewable energy projects that will impact not just our state but all of the country…. I think there are tremendous opportunities not just to reduce the cost of energy in our state, but also to increase jobs."

Three years into the exercise this particular conference of governors and premiers seems to be coming up very short.  Some provinces, like Quebec, may be able to profit but it is hard to know why a province like Newfoundland and Labrador is devoting such effort as sending the premier to the meetings while other, more lucrative prospects have been either neglected or trashed.

After all, you can just hear Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and Premier Danny Williams when they first met:  “But I thought you had jobs to send to us.”

At least, Danny didn’t have to travel far to get to Biloxi.

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Jon Lien: mensch

Jon Lien, known around the world for his work with humpback whales, died in St. John’s today, age 71.

He was a remarkable human being and anyone who had the chance to know him on any level – your humble e-scribbler did through work with a local conservation foundation – knew immediately of his energy, enthusiasm and respect for all living things. 

There will be no shortage of tributes to Dr. Lien.  One of the best you will find anywhere came from Geoff Meeker two years ago when Dr. Lien was inducted into the Order of Canada.  Like most recipients of the Order, Dr. Lien got it for one thing but his life was filled with reasons to acknowledge him and honour him. Geoff reprinted a profile he’d written 20 years ago and it still holds up today.

Few will be able to put it any better about a man few will be able to equal, let alone better.

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Interconnection key to reliable wind power

A recent study from the University of Delaware’s College of Earth, Ocean and Environment shows that a network of offshore wind sites can be managed to ensure consistent power generation from the system. [Full report in pdf]

One of the major problems with single wind farm sites is the unpredictable nature of generation.  Power only flows when the wind blows and there is no guarantee when it blow or if the wind will be strong enough to generate power.

Researchers at CEOE analysed five years of data from sites stretching 2500 kilometres along the east coast of the United States. By simulating an interconnection they demonstrated that the system could provide consistent, sustainable power.  While other studies have shown the benefit of interconnection, the key to success in this case lay in the wide geographic dispersion of the wind farms.

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Show Trial

Charges laid against one Innu hunter from events in 2009 caused a minor flurry in St. John’s when the news broke charges had been laid. This will likely wind up being a big political story but a very short legal story.

Essentially, this is a political prosecution, done for show and nothing more. The government had to hunt around for someone to charge after all the controversy earlier in the year.  If it was a real charge, the justice minister would be speaking to it and since he was nowhere to be seen, you can draw the logical conclusion.

The fact the wildlife crowd came up with one lone guy to charge – from 2009 – would cause even the most blind judge to wonder what was being tossed in front of him. 

In the end the hunter will get off for one of several reasons.  The most obvious one is the aboriginal right to pursue traditional ways.  That’s the most obvious reason and the one that is pretty hard for the Crown to refute.

They can’t play the endangered herd card for one simple reason:  if the Innu actually had been killing the herd at the rate claimed, the herd would have been killed off 25 years ago.

Second, there is the angle to use if the guy has a lawyer bent on embarrassing the living crap out of the Legal Genius(es) behind the prosecution. 

If that’s the case, the lawyer will scream that his client is being abused because he is from another province. He will have plenty of evidence to back up this line.

The lawyer will point to the treatment of his client compared to Innu hunters from Labrador who were caught red-handed killing animals of an endangered herd who had their gear and vehicles returned to them. The lawyer can point to the need to get a deal on the Lower Churchill as a motivation for the blatantly unfair treatment accorded to the Labrador Innu. He doesn’t have to prove that, mind you.  He can just allege it.  Think of it like claiming your client got a shit knocking on George Street because his old man was in a labour dispute or words to that effect. 

He can also have a go at the natural resources minister for alleging the Innu were potential murderous bastards.  Her whole line about something flung into the blades of a government helicopter seems a tad overblown. 

And if in the process the lawyer for the poor fellow facing charges can coax a characteristically intemperate outburst from the province’s Chief Lawyer, then all the better for his client.

Ginger, get the popcorn.

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Wolfe Island Wind Farm

Since last summer, pictures of the Wolfe Island wind farm have been one of the most popular search terms to drive traffic to Bond Papers.

Unfortunately, they haven’t been readily available since the site redesign. Well, by popular demand, here’s the best shot, taken from the Wolfe Islander III on the return run from the island to Kingston.

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Government-subsidised government jobs

There are two things to notice about a provincial government news release from the human resources and labour department announcing the awarding of $67,000 of job subsidies for seven jobs in the electoral district represented by the minister responsible for human resources and labour.

Well, there’s three if you include the fact that Susan Sullivan is announcing money for her own district and at no time makes reference to the fact it is her district.

But there are two other aspects of this release that scream out for attention:

Firstly, the news release gives absolutely no background whatsoever on what the seven people benefitting from the cash will be doing. In fact, aside from the first paragraph, the rest of the release pours out tons of boilerplate on the program used to pay for the jobs.

Secondly, one of the employers involved in the projects is the Nova Central School District. The money is for “the hiring of staff…” for the district.

In other words, the provincial government is using government money from one department to subsidize jobs in another line department.  Nova Central gets its funding from Darrin King, the education minister.

Talk about jobs that depend on taxes.

Talk about make-work schemes.

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Oil above $80/bbl may hamper recovery

The International Energy Agency is warning that oil prices above US$80 a barrel may jeopardise economic recovery in major countries.

From the Globe and Mail:

“Ultimately, things might turn messy for producers if $80-100 (per barrel) is merely seen as the new $60-80 (per barrel), stunting economic recovery while prompting resurgent non-oil and non-OPEC supply investment,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

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