If you wanted to promote something that was better than ever, especially high definition television, you certainly wouldn’t like to use a piece of snail mail that wound up in your humble e-scribbler’s snail mailbox looking like this:
The ultimate HD experience does not mean heavy water damage and tattered edges all the way around.
Amazing.
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The federal Liberal convention this weekend shows just exactly how out to lunch the overwrought media commentary about the devastated Liberal party has been.
Around 3,000 delegates. Some said there were more than that; others said there were fewer.
Lots of interested and interesting discussion.
And a new president.
Keeping party membership is a good thing. One of the reasons political parties in Newfoundland and Labrador are in an abysmal state is the absence of a working membership system in any of them. Basically a party without membership becomes easy prey for the backroom types who thrive on secrecy. They can manipulate the whole thing, one way or another and they do.
Memberless parties also create a world in which voters have no particular attachment to the party and its principles. Again, the parties in Newfoundland and Labrador are classic examples of this sort of thing. Voters shift back and forth among the parties with ease largely because there is nothing to distinguish one from the other.
The elected types are no different. They all – basically – support exactly the same sorts of things. If it is popular, they will back it. That’s one of the big reasons why the NDP and Liberals have been basically just red and orange chapters of the Danny Fan Club since 2006 or so.
They haven’t opposed anything, except for show.
They still don’t.
So while the federal Liberals are already well on the way to change, the provincial Liberals are, well, not.
Talk of their demise is anything but exaggerated.
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If David Vardy was wrong about Muskrat Falls or about the concern some people have about publicly criticising Tory pet projects, Danny Williams wouldn’t be attacking Vardy personally.
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Not surprisingly Nalcor’s Ed Martin latched onto a pretty superficial argument to dismiss economist Jim Feehan’s critique of Muskrat Falls.
"I go over to see my Dad, an 80-year-old gentleman living on his own, and I say to Dad, 'I have a solution for you — why don't we raise your electricity rates so high that you won't use electricity?' ... He's going to say to me, 'I think you're going to have to find another solution here.' "
Premier Kathy Dunderdale wasn’t far behind. As VOCM put it:
Dunderdale says Feehan's argument that electricity rates are artificially low and that people will use less electricity if the prices were increased, is something government simply does not agree with. She says their primary focus is to keep electricity rates low.
Dunderdale never explained why she thought prices weren’t artificially low. Odds are she doesn’t know whether they are or they aren’t low or what impact changing the way energy is priced might have.
Like most politicians, she is probably contented with the rather simplistic view that created the current system. Low prices are politically good. “[T]ry selling that,” writes the Telegram editorialist on Friday, “to a pensioner on a fixed income.”
Such a discussion on the doorstep is a scary prospect, to be sure, even if you understand all the nuances of the issue. In Dunderdale’s case, though, it isn’t a question of understanding anything except that this deal is done.
Period.
When Danny announced it, nothing could stop it.
There are no more decision gates.
There are no off-ramps and no climb down spots.
Once Danny announced this project and cabinet backed it in November 2010, they put us all on a non-stop march to debt.
The Tories are impervious to logic.
None can penetrate.
They cannot be dissuaded.
CBC cornered Danny Williams somewhere on Friday and asked him about the critics. Williams said that when he put this deal together, Williams got the top minds to work it out. This deal must be perfect one can take from that. And since Williams had only the best, all others must be inferior creatures. The decision is already perfect.
Such is the delusional world, the blind world, the supremely arrogant world in which he and his heirs live.
So far removed are Williams, Dunderdale, Jerome Kennedy, Shawn Skinner and the rest of the Muskrat mafia from reality that they cannot see the pure insanity of the claim that their primary focus, as Dunderdale put it, is keeping energy prices low.
Feehan’s paper, as the Telegram editorial quoted, uses figures that translate out to an increase in electricity prices from 10.5 cents per kilowatt hour to 13.5 cents per kwh, all without Muskrat. he was talking about the price consumers pay.
Even if we accept the wildly unrealistic assumptions Dunderdale and company are using for Muskrat Falls, their own numbers show that the cost of making electricity at Muskrat Falls will be at least 14.3 cents per kwh and as much as 16.5 cents.
That isn’t the price consumers will pay. They will have to pay for Muskrat Falls, plus all of Nalcor’s other operations, plus newfoundland Power’s costs of distribution and a healthy profit to both.
If those Nalcor assumptions about project costs – a mere 15% over-run, for example – turn out to be as ludicrous as experience suggests they are, then you can be damn certain that consumers will be paying way more than 16.5 cents per kwh just for Muskrat Falls.
If Ed Martin explained his Muskrat Falls plan to his father and then laid Jim Feehan’s idea in front of him, you can bet which one Martin Senior would jump at.
The logic isn’t hard to follow.
The math is actually pretty easy.
If Ed were to add that the Williams/Dunderdale/Martin idea was to trade away possible high electricity prices for guaranteed high ones, then Ed’s Dad would probably keel over.
Williams, Dunderdale and Company want to make sure that domestic electricity prices in Newfoundland and Labrador are the highest, not the lowest. That’s what their own information says.
It’s like Tom Marshall’s claim that he wants to fight the public debt. And his way of doing that is - in effect – to double the debt by building Muskrat Falls. That’s the only conclusion you can reach from their own information.
Its proponents would have you believe that Muskrat Falls is the divine wind that will save us all. The reality is that the project looks like a kamikaze of a different sort altogether.
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Related:
Hold off on the Lower Churchill, James Feehan, National Post, (January 2012):
“Apparently, the province is unconcerned that pushing ahead, as opposed to waiting for a more comprehensive report, might hurt the credibility of the PUB assessment itself. Now, doubts about the project have company: doubts about the process.
The way forward is clear: At the very least, Newfoundland and Labrador should hold off on the Lower Churchill until a better set of facts is in front of the public, and the legislature. And the province would do well to take the time to ponder a broader set of options, including setting better energy policy. Muskrat Falls will wait, and a wider set of long-run options, including a transmission corridor that better serves provincial and pan-Canadian needs, will present themselves in due course.”
Williams announces political exit plan (October 2010):
“It gets better. Weak electricity prices coupled with the front-end loading of capital on Muskrat Falls would likely mean power sent to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and the United States could only sell at heavily discounted prices. Even Muskrat Falls power at a break even price would likely be too expensive for the markets to bear. That’s an old and fundamental problem with trying to sell Labrador power so far away from Labrador.
No problem for NALCOR, these days. Thanks to changes made to the Electrical Power Control Act in 2006, the Hydro Corporation Act, the Public Utilities Act, and government policy, NALCOR wouldn’t suffer any losses. The company can export all the discounted power it wants knowing that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador will wind up paying for it.”
Debt, electricity rates and Muskrat Falls (August 2011)
Muskrat falls deal will succeed: Nalcor boss (December 2011)
Nalcor should be able to supply information to any regulatory or review process for the Muskrat Falls project because the company should have already reviewed exactly the sorts of information those regulators or reviewers in order to approve its project for development.
The fact that Nalcor hasn’t been able to meet a single deadline, especially for the public utilities board process speaks volumes about Nalcor’s fundamental problems.
The public utilities board process, don’t forget, is one in which Nalcor and the provincial government have constrained the PUB scope of inquiry and time scales/
Still Nalcor is frigging it up.
So what does a company do with a project more and more people are questioning across the board?
They send a letter to the public utilities board chairman that, in effect, blows a raspberry at the regulator.
To paraphrase: we’ve given you pages of stuff and met your people lots of times despite the fact we are really, really busy doing other stuff. So there.
What doesn’t sound good, though is this line in the last paragraph:
Nalcor wants to ensure that the process and final Board report is both balanced and a fair representation of the information presented.
So Nalcor chief executive Ed martin is now setting up a pre-emptive defense in case the utilities board review dumps on Nalcor.
Nalcor’s management of the Muskrat Falls project just keeps getting worse.
And that only serves to further undermine confidence in the company.
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Hydro-Quebec just signed a deal to purchase 150 megawatts of electricity produced by biomass.
“The price for the power, in 2012 dollars, will be 10.6 cents per kilowatt hour, the average price for power awarded in 2009 to successful bidders on a biomass power program set to supply the hydro grid in 2012,” the [Montreal Gazette] paper reported.
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Coming to The Rooms in February:
Wednesday, February 22, 7 pm
The Limits of Myth Busting:
Popular and Professional Histories of Newfoundland and LabradorWhat is the relationship between myth and history? And are myths rooted in history? Join Dr. Jerry Bannister as he shares his thoughts on the role of historians and popular mythologies in understanding our province’s past.
Mark your calendars.
This one should be as good as the last one.
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We were therefore not surprised by the recent request by the board to have the deadline extended for the completion of the reference until June 30 and fully expected Minister Jerome Kennedy to provide the extension.
We were shocked by the immediate decision of the minister to deny the request. The stated reason is to allow a debate in the House of Assembly in March but there is no reason why the House cannot debate this in July, following the completion of the reference.Penney and Vardy call Muskrat Falls the largest public works project ever undertaken in the province and “the most important public policy issue ever to have faced Newfoundland and Labrador”.
It requires careful and comprehensive independent analysis and a public debate, informed by that analysis. That is the purpose of the reference to the board and to restrict that review does a disservice to the people of the province.They say that the project may “expose us [i.e. the people of the province] to significant risk”. They are absolutely right and most of that risk, don’t forget is undisclosed.
Major infrastructure projects like this inevitably cost considerably more than originally estimated so we might well double the debt of the province at a time when it is likely that offshore revenues are in decline and our expenditures are increasing to meet the challenges posed by our changing demographics.The solution, they argue, is to let the PUB assess all potential options.
The board should be allowed to consider the other issues that have been raised publicly over the past year such as the use of natural gas as feedstock for the Holyrood thermal plant, incentives to reduce demand during the winter peak, conservation measures, and estimates of future population and electrical load growth, among others. Furthermore, we maintain that these issues are legitimate questions within the review of the isolated island alternative to Muskrat Falls, even though we believe that the board should be unfettered in its mandate.
Natural resources minister Jerome! Kennedy is wading deeper and deeper into the political morass called the Muskrat Falls project these days and finding that it is a sticky, stinky, mess.
For not one, but two days running, Jerome has been trying to explain to VOCM’s afternoon radio call-in host why Jerome and the Nalcor gang are right and everybody else is wrong.
On Wednesday, Jerome talked about a bunch of charts and tables he must have sent over to the host. They both talked about what the tables showed: how prices for electricity will be this if Muskrat goes ahead and will be that if it doesn’t.
“Will” as in “guaranteed to be.”
Only problem for Jerome! is that his numbers aren’t guaranteed anything at all. They are speculation. They are based on assumptions. – at best – highly speculative.
The price might be this.
Or it might be something else entirely.
It all depends on what assumptions you make.
Take, for example, two of the key assumptions.
For Muskrat Falls to make any sense at all, crude oil must go to at least $200 a barrel and stay there. Anything less than that and taxpayers are better off not building Muskrat.
Second, Muskrat must also cost the projected price or less. Odds of that happening are very small. Jerome! insists that Nalcor has that one covered. They have included in their estimates a possible cost over-run of 15%.
Unfortunately, the current provincial government (Nalcor and government are indistinguishable) couldn’t deliver pizza and guarantee a mere 15% cost over-run. Government capital works projects these days are usually at least 50% more than they predict. On some projects they’ve gone 100% over budget.
You get the point.
There is only one combination of circumstances where the Danny/Jerome/Kathy idea for Muskrat Falls works out for taxpayers and a bunch of combinations in which it doesn’t. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know the odds of winning Lotto Jerome! are pretty small.
There are other aspects of the Muskrat Falls case that don’t make sense either, like the potential alternatives to Muskrat Falls, the export prospects and the forecasts for energy demand. Critics of the project have systematically demolished all of them. Not one survives to this day intact.
And yet Jerome! and Kathy Dunderdale and Nalcor keep pushing them.
Things didn’t get any better for the MF gang on Wednesday. Economist Jim Feehan dissected an underlying problem in how the province sets electricity prices. Tackling that one would encourage consumers to change some of their more wasteful ways they use energy. Lowering demand also lowers the need for expensive megaprojects. Feehan’s approach could, if current trends continue, allow Nalcor to avoid the most expensive megaproject in the province’s history, mothball the Holyrood plant and deliver consumers affordable electricity into the future.
If Feehan’s idea isn’t the only solution it’s one of the elements that a responsible provincial government would include in its energy policy for the province.
Feehan’s commentary is a sign of how the opposition to Muskrat Falls is growing. This time last year, Feehan thought Muskrat was a great – if pricy - idea. Having taken a hard look at the project, Feehan has changed his mind.
Feehan’s comments also reflect the way the discussion is going.l Critics of Muskrat Falls are looking not only at the weaknesses of the proposal itself, but also at the shortcomings of the current administration’s energy policy.
That’s good for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.
But for politicians like Jerome!, it means that two days of chatting up Paddy will turn into three and maybe more.
And the chances of winning more people to the cause just keep getting smaller and smaller.
Much like the chances that building Muskrat falls the way Jerome! and Kathy want to will deliver any benefit to the people who own the resource.
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Ruh roh!
What do Danny Williams, Kathy Dunderdale and Sarah Palin have in common?
They - and their bootlickers and wannabe bootlickers - all like to blame their own problems and shortcomings on people who write online. It’s all political bullshit, of course, but you can almost hear them saying “It would have worked too if it wasn’t for those pesky blogsters….and their dog! “
Scooby-doobie-doo!
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From the CD Howe Institute:
Jan. 11, 2012 – James P. Feehan
Newfoundland [and Labrador] should hold off on plans to develop a power project on the Lower Churchill River in Labrador, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Newfoundland’s Electricity Options: Making the Right Choice Requires an Efficient Pricing Regime,” Memorial University economist James P. Feehan says the province should first reform electricity prices to better reflect costs and reduce consumption, then assess its options.
For the study go to: http://www.cdhowe.org/pdf/ebrief_129.pdf
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Nobody’s been in the job since since January 2010.
There’s no evidence that the two people who held the job actually did anything substantive during the time from 2004 to 2010 that someone held down the position known derisively as the Ambassador or – as your humble e-scribbler preferred – the Premier’s Personal Envoy to Hy’s.
And yet it still took Premier Kathy Dunderdale a full year and then some of her own term as Premier, plus the experience of interviewing a few potential replacements to realise what Premiers before Williams knew: the whole thing was a foolish waste of time.
Lord sufferin’ dynamite, Old Man.
That is absolutely stunning.
And it tells you so much about how two successive Premiers and their administrations actually work.
They led with their strong suit: the hyper-torqued official announcement that was long on the bullshit and short on the truth. As a result, most of the conventional media reports were full of it, too. Take the Ceeb’s account as an example of the type.
As some media accounts of the Premier’s scrum with reporters make it sound, Dunderdale has found a new way of doing things, what with ministers, deputy ministers and other officials talking to their federal counterparts. And with communications better now that Kath and Steve are on the same wavelength, the Ottawa office is just not needed anymore.
No sir. There’s a new energy in town and, by gosh, the release assures us all “it made sense to have our Intergovernmental and Aboriginal Affairs Secretariat assume responsibility, over the long term, for the functions that would have been carried out through the Ottawa office.”
Whatever functions the office did perform – there were no people in it, evidently – they were such that over a six year period, the big job in the office sat vacant for about half the time. So whatever the crowd in Intergovernmental Affairs are taking on, odds are it wasn’t much. They will just carry doing what they have done since the 1970s: deal with their federal and provincial counterparts on a variety of issues.
So you caught that, right?
Since the 1970s, IGA has been doing all the things people claim this personal envoy job did. And they kept doing it all the way through the time this office existed, whether someone worked in it or not.
Now while your humble e-scribbler can say this based on his own knowledge of the provincial government and from seven years in the Premier’s Office, you really don’t have to go by that alone.
Consider the version of events by no less a person than Bill Rowe, the first personal envoy to Hy’s, Rhodes Scholar, radio host, writer and secret police report leaker extraordinaire. His insider’s account of things he was outside the room for made it plain Rowe did nothing while he was there.
There is no mention in the book’s of anything Rowe actually accomplished. Well, aside from wait around for a cell phone and a laptop and arrange to have his used snow tires shipped up to him from Sin Jawns. Like there was no place up there to buy new ones.
Now Rowe sold a lot of those books. Mainlanders are especially gullible, it turns out. Hopefully, the guy made a few bucks of the book. But if he only cleared a twonie, then his time in Ottawa at taxpayers’ expense was infinitely more productive for Rowe than it was for the people who footed the bill for his sojourn on the Rideau.
Our man in a Blue Line cab – Rowe’s eventual successor - did no better, although he stayed longer. Danny Williams acknowledged as much when Fitz packed it in at the end of his one and only contract. Williams found him a nice new job back home. Williams insisted the office in Ottawa would remain open, to be filled eventually with some other incumbent.
Kathy Dunderdale said the same thing after Danny handed over the Premier’s Office to her. Last June,
“The office serves a great purpose when it’s functioning the way that it should,” she told a Telegram editorial board [last] Wednesday. “And it’s important to me that we maintain that.”
Nothing changed in the intervening six months or so, except Dunderdale’s talking points. The bottom line remains now as it has since Danny Williams decided to give his old alum chum a nice perk; the job was a total waste of public money. Public servants in this province and cabinet ministers never stopped doing the work they and their predecessors have done.
The fact that it took the Tories two years to shut the office down and that it took Kathy Dunderdale a full year to arrive at an incredibly simple - and glaringly obvious – conclusion tells you this is a government that consistently has a hard time getting things done.
In other words, not a thing has changed since the serial government took office.
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If the province’s Liberals live up to the promise made in a news release issued Monday, they’ll make local legislative history.
Andrew Parsons, MHA for Burgeo-La Poile, announced today that he will be introducing a Bill to regulate the opening of the House of Assembly in the future.
Since Confederation, opposition political parties in Newfoundland and Labrador have contented themselves with taking one afternoon a week to debate a meaningless resolution.
While they’ve had the ability all along to introduce bills that could become law, no opposition party has ever tried before. It’s so common elsewhere that no one really pays attention to it.
Of course now that Parsons has told everyone, you can expect the NDP will start drafting bills and the Tories will try to figure out some procedural reason to stop it.
Good luck on the latter.
On the former that just means the Tories will have a much harder time in the House this spring than they expected.
And when the governing party has to work hard during a legislative session, that’s only a good thing.
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The CBC online account is on the Ceeb’s website (here). That’s pretty much what everyone has been reporting, namely the impact fisheries minister Darin King’s comments on Friday had on Ocean Choice International.
Check the company’s news release and you’ll see that is also what the company started out with:
Sullivan said remarks by fisheries minister Darin King have left global customers, employees and the people of Newfoundland and Labrador questioning the credibility of the company, something he said should never have happened.
To be fair, King isn’t doing the same thing. His comments on Friday came more out of a short-term political need to make it look like he was doing something besides looking impotent.
In the end, King made a statement everyone knew rang a little hollow: no one believed the government would issue a permanent exemption on processing anyway. Then he took a shot at OCI that led the company to come out in an even stronger position. Except among the usual gang of myth mongers and ignorant windbag politicians, people in Newfoundland and Labrador looking at OCI’s position will appreciate the sensible, rational tone of it:
However, when these discussions veer off to public commentary that is damaging to our reputation, we must take exception.
…
I respect the right of the province to make decisions on matters before them. And, I respect government’s decision to disallow permanent exemptions on flatfish and redfish.
…
We understand now that government is in receipt of all information requested to date, apart from minor clarifications received today. (a direct refutation of King’s claim)
In reply, King can lash out again or let the comment from OCI go by. Either way, King loses. If he lashes out, his eventual and inevitable capitulation by granting long-term exemptions will look like he collapsed under pressure from the company. And if he let’s the comments slide by, King will look like he is afraid of OCI. When he inevitably grants the company long term exemptions, he will look like he collapsed in fear.
How does Darin King win?
At this point, King can’t win. He can only hope to limit damage. Whoever advised him to issue the news release on Friday should get the boot for being a political moron.
Arguably, the only politician in a worse position is Liberal fisheries critic Jim Bennett. As CBC quotes Bennett:
"You can't blame a company for taking as many liberties as the government will let them take."
Anyone who thinks the current fisheries crisis is caused by slack government regulation of the industry and greedy irresponsible fishing companies running roughshod over everything and everyone is either a fool on his own or a fool taking advice from an even bigger idiot.
There’s just no polite way to put it.
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Scientists told some American fishermen before Christmas that the cod the fishermen depend on for their livelihood are in danger of disappearing unless the fishermen change their ways.
Frig off, say the fishermen.
People from this province will recognise the drama. Evidence says one thing. A whole bunch of people deny it.
The drama continues to this day in Newfoundland and Labrador as the same people who have fought steadfastly against reforming the fishery continue their struggle.
You can spot the denial experts because they all got sucked in by a news release from the fisheries department last week. ‘Ocean Choice International Denied Permanent Redfish Exemption” screamed the headline. Hooray, screamed the Deniers. That’ll teach the Latest Evil Ones that they cannot pull a fast one.
Yes folks, there is no crisis.
It’s all just made up.
Now of course, the provincial government won’t grant a permanent exemption. The fisheries minister and his colleagues are still in denial about the scope of the fisheries crisis and the need for dramatic change.
But in a few weeks time, Darin King will have to do something. Odds are he will give OCI what it really wants, namely the end of restrictions on its processing licenses that force the company to process fish in this province even if it isn’t profitable to do so.
They won‘t be permanent exemptions.
But they company will get exemptions.
The reason is right there in the release:
“Yesterday we learned that OCI intends to proceed with plans to fish redfish from quotas purchased from license holders in Nova Scotia. The company has said if we provide an exemption, they will land the fish in Newfoundland and Labrador, otherwise it would be landed elsewhere.”
Then you put that with King’s guiding principles, as reported by the Telegram:
… no [provincial] government subsidies for the fishery, and making moves that maximize the benefit of the resource for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.
King is just pretending because he is politically jammed up. He gets praised today but in a few days or weeks, the same people will be attacking him.
Denying reality is a familiar, fishy tale whether you are in New England or Newfoundland.
The only difference is how long it takes for reality to take hold.
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The place was rocking especially as the Caps sloughed off the holiday stupor after the first period and started playing some hockey.
Seriously.
Shawn walks by.
You have the thought.
And then the stadium sound system starts blaring out the little plumber’s theme music.
Way friggin’ spooky.
Hop, you little plumber!
Hop, hop hop!
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Surely to mercy, if Prime Minister Stephen Harper was halfway serious about senate reform he could find someone else from Newfoundland and Labrador besides Norm Doyle to take up a senate seat.
Maybe Harper could have found someone other than a guy who has been recycled more times than a university freshman’s one good shirt.
And even if senate reform wasn’t the reason for making the appointment, there has got to be someone in the province who has distinguished himself or herself in the arts world, academia, social policy activism or business who could take up the appointment.
If Norm Doyle got the job, the list must have been made up of Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador who hadn’t followed Danny Williams blindly and who could be reached without a séance.
The last thing the senate needs is another political hack taking up space, drawing a nice salary (on top of his public sector pension) and not doing very much else besides.
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Now that Danny Williams is a special advisor to a company with a nice little iron ore project in western labrador, maybe we should look at Danny Williams’ political promises about resource development.
Maybe we can get some idea of what advice he might give his new client.
In 2003, Williams promised that he would stop the give-aways of our resources. Specifically, Williams promised that he would:
“Ensure nonrenewable [sic]resource developments benefit future as well as present generations by controlling the pace of development, promoting value-added product manufacturing, and spending royalties in ways that have long-term benefits across generations.”
That sounds like a good idea. Surely, he still believes in those commitments.
In 2003, Williams had some pretty firm ideas about what needed to happen:
“Developing a healthy and competitive mineral sector is a solid strategy for ensuring the Province's future prosperity. From the mining and processing of ore through to product manufacturing and assembly, the mineral sector can make a vital contribution to economic growth and employment in both urban and rural regions of the Province.
A strong mineral industry for the Province will be built on progressive legislation that will:
he certainly believed those things in 2007. When the popular Premier sought re-election, Williams committed that he would
… [and]
Guess that means Danny won’t be advising the company to ship unprocessed iron ore out of the province.
Get ready people of Labrador.
If Danny delivers on his old political promises, you will not be able to stand the prosperity.
Of course, now that he isn’t a politician any more there’s no guarantee he will still push for the same ideas he used to talk about.
Maybe someone should ask Williams about give aways and getting the most for the people of the province from their resources.
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