Significant budget digits #nlpoli

As you try and contain your excitement on provincial budget day, here are a few numbers you might want to keep in mind:

Dozens:  What CBC reported on Friday as the number of layoffs in the budget.

Fewer than 150:  What CBC reported on Monday as the likely number of layoffs in the budget.

$5.0 billion:  The amount of cash Tom Marshall had in the bank last year after the finance minister paid all the provincial government bills a year ago.  Don’t believe it?  Check Volume 1 of last year’s Public Accounts.  Windfall oil prices have delivered every penny of it.

$5.1 billion:  Total spending in the Tories’ first budget in 2003.

$13 billion:  The public debt, i.e. gross liabilities. Roughly $26,000 for every person living in the province. 

Don’t believe it?  Check the Public Accounts.

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No truer words #nlpoli #cdnpoli

“When you wage an ideological war,” wrote Lana Payne this past weekend, “lies are necessary weapons.”

Payne, for those who don’t know, is president of the province’s labour federation and a major player for the provincial and national New Democratic Party.  She has a column in the weekly Telegram, for which she once worked.  That’s where she wrote those words, at the start of a column about the federal Conservatives.

Payne has a special hate on for Stephen Harper and his Connies. Sometimes it seems that hardly a moment goes by before Payne is tweeting, writing or telling a reporter about the awful f*ckers, those federal Tories.  No words are too strong for Payne to use in condemning Harper and his cronies.  There are no crimes, it seems, that she could not imagine them doing.  There is no evil too black for them to plot, deep in their caves,as they stroke their beards and lick the blood of some freshly killed innocent from their lips.

Payne hates Tories the same way any ideologue hates competition. Doesn’t matter if the ideology is religious or political. The reaction is the same, one for the other.  Payne’s column follows the form:  the Tories are waging an ideological war. She is merely exposing them.  They Lie, the blasphemers.  Only the “I” can tell you the Truth. Her opening sentence is a tracer round fired to light up the enemy.

Only a true ideologue, though, could start a column about the crucial role of lies in ideological war and not – apparently – realize the veracity in all tracer rounds  Tracers, you see, point both ways.

The same weekend that Payne fired at Harper about fighter jets and cooked books, Payne appeared in her usual role as pundit on CBC’s On Point with David Cochrane to talk about next week’s provincial budget.

Asked about the provincial government’s limited restraint coming in the next budget, Payne blessed it as sound since the government’s problem was “short-term”. Things are growing. Things are good.

She dismissed Telegram editor Russell Wangersky’s challenge that the problem wasn’t so transient.  We have paid down on debt, according to Payne. The debt-to-GDP ratio is among the best anywhere.

The provincial government has done no such thing of course.  The public debt remains at record levels. It only appears smaller by some calculations if you include a raft of cash the government has laying about.  The money is ear-marked, of course, for Muskrat Falls.

So paid down the debt?  No.  That would be false.

And as for the debt-to-GDP ratio?  Well,  that would depend on your definition of debt.  The provincial auditor general uses net debt.  As we’ve noted, that figure can be misleading since it includes cash that is actually already ear-marked to be spent.  The result is a misleading, low number for debt compared to a value of the economy, which, by the way, shifts based on a couple of highly volatile prices.  

Really with that indicator you are dealing with the same problem as the first one.  So far Payne is zero for two biggies on the veracity front.

Payne also doesn’t talk about the vulnerability of the economy, built on the precarious base of public sector spending that comes from volatile and unreliable oil and mineral prices.  Think of that as a lack of veracity by omission.

Zero for three.

These omissions must be a necessary weapon in the ideological war, as Payne told us. The ideology in this case is Payne’s concern to represent the major unions in her federation. They represent people who get their paycheques from the public purse. More public sector good.  Less public sector bad, always, according to that ideology.

Now ideology, like religion, can be a good thing. It can help people give shape and meaning to life. It can help them do good.  It can be a comfort.

The problems start when ideology becomes a barrier to other ideas or to thought and reason.  That’s when you get tunnel vision.

And nothing good for anyone ever came from tunnel vision.

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Muskrat Voodoo #nlpoli #cdnpoli

A Canadian Press story on Muskrat Falls this week starts with economist Brendan Sullivan’s recent critique of Muskrat Falls:

He said in an interview that the province and its Crown corporation Nalcor Energy are using "voodoo economics" to justify a long-term power purchase agreement.

…

But Sullivan argues the agreement essentially writes off depreciation later — "kicking the can down the road" for future generations — and that it wouldn't get past private shareholders who expect faster return on investment.

CP also gives Nalcor boss Ed martin some space.  Curiously he tosses out some additional voodoo as if to prove Sullivan’s point without realising it.

Try this for starters:

In an email, Nalcor CEO Ed Martin said the province needs more power and that Muskrat Falls is cheaper than if Newfoundland generates its own energy, much of it dependent on an aging oil-fired plant.

Two bits.

First there’s the claim that MF would be cheaper than generating energy on its own.

It’s a weird way to say it:  “cheaper than if Newfoundland generates its own energy.”  After all the end-users foot the entire bill either way so whatever that curious phrase means it doesn’t matter.

Second, the infeed system isn’t cheaper than the alternatives. Nalcor hasn’t studied the alternatives and won’t have studied them before government sanctions the project.  At best they don’t know.  At worst, as some of the critics have suggested, Muskrat falls is actually more expensive and potentially the most financially risky choice of all the ways to me the island’s electricity needs.

Third, look at this:

Muskrat Falls "moves the island from dependence on thermal generation to the use of clean, renewable hydropower," he said.

The island isn’t dependent on thermal generation now.  Thermal is part of the mix.  Any place that has a majority of its year-round generation from thermal sources is “dependent”.  The island uses Holyrood for less than three months a year.  Some years, Holyrood supplies a mere 11% of the island’s electricity needs.

Fourth, and, as Ed Martin knows, if he spent a few hundred millions, he could shutter Holyrood for about 15 years.  Martin has a supply of hydro available from the old Abitibi properties to displace Holyrood.  The problem is that the line between the generators and the consumers on the Avalon can’t handle the extra load.

And for fifth, recall another wonder bit of voodoo on Martin’s part:  the Muskrat Falls scheme actually includes more thermal generation for the island than is currently installed at Holyrood.  It’s right there in the same Manitoba Hydro report Martin keeps citing when he pronounces himself baffled that the public utilities board refused to answer his set-up question with Martin’s pre-determined answer.

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If Danny didn’t have the balls for it… #nlpoli

Job cuts in the public service.  One of the more spectacular communications frig ups by the Premier lately.

Here’s what your humble e-scribbler said on March 6:

So if Danny Williams couldn’t cut anything even after saying it in plain language, what makes anyone think that Kathy Dunderdale and the rest of her crew are even saying “cuts” let alone thinking about doing them?

Then the Friday before the provincial budget is scheduled to appear, CBC reports that “sources say the job cuts will number in the dozens, instead of the hundreds.”

Surprise!

Of course, public sector spending is still unsustainable.  The provincial government has been saying it since 2009.  It’s like debt reduction.  They talk about that too.  They just never do anything about it.

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The essence of bribery #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Authorities in Quebec have their hands full with a raft of corruption investigations, according to the Globe and Mail.

This paragraph toward the end of the Globe story stands out:

The opposition parties alleged that the unit was being hampered by political interference. The Parti Québécois this week revealed in the National Assembly that the government had failed to cooperate with the anti-corruption unit in an investigation involving the awarding of daycare spaces to individuals who were alleged to have close ties with the Quebec Liberal Party.

Daycare spaces.

The essence of bribery involves very mundane things.

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Tightening up EI access #nlpoli #cdnpoli

People drawing unemployment insurance in the Atlantic provinces might be in for a new way of life in the near future, if changes to the Employment Insurance system turn out as described by the National Post on Wednesday:

What we will be doing is making people aware there’s hiring going on and reminding them that they have an obligation to apply for available work and to take it if they’re going to qualify for EI,” Mr. Kenney told the National Post editorial board on Wednesday. …

The reforms would require unemployed Canadians to accept local jobs that are currently being filled by temporary foreign workers.

The story includes an example of Nova Scotia Christmas tree farmers who have to bring in Mexican workers to harvest trees in the fall.  Unemployment in Nova Scotia is running at 8.3% according to Statistics Canada.  Newfoundland and Labrador’s unemployment rate is 13%, the highest in the country.

Changes to Employment Insurance could have a significant impact on seasonal workers in Newfoundland and Labrador.  Historically, they and the companies they work for have been heavily dependent on federal subsidies.  The fishing industry, already under pressure to reform, would face profound changes under the changes.

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Good bye to KP #cdnpoli

Kingston Penitentiary – the oldest federal prison in Canada -  will close this year as part of the federal Conservative’s get tough on crime agenda…err…budget cuts.

Some people are predicting hard economic times in the Limestone City.  Those who’ve been to Kingston know that even with the P4W gone and now KP closing, there are six prisons in and around Kingston to keep the area economy afloat. 

Your humble e-scribbler spent a couple of years in Kingston as a graduate student back when the cop shop was downtown next to the bus depot and Block D was a perpetual sore point with the local council.

Bonus points to anyone who can name all the prisons.

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The Budget-Spending Disconnection #nlpoli

The provincial government announced on Wednesday that they will spend $2.0 million to fund new child care spaces across the province.

Through Budget 2012, the Provincial Government remains committed to providing affordable, accessible and quality child care services throughout Newfoundland and Labrador. Today, the Honourable Charlene Johnson, Minister of Child, Youth and Family Services, announced $2 million for the second year of the Family Child Care Initiative, one of several key investments to be included in Budget 2012 to support child care.

Sounds like good news and it is.

But this announcement is peculiar.

For one thing, we won’t get Budget 2012 until next week. Traditionally. that’s when you get budget announcements like this one. You’d get it after the finance minister delivers the budget speech. Sometimes you get announcements before-hand but those used to be rare.

Now what makes this announcement a wee bit more peculiar is that this news release and news conference was really about spending commitments continued from 2011. It’s really cash you would anticipate they would spend so getting it this year wouldn’t be a big deal.  There’s no sign they plan to spend more than originally announced, so if you look at this big production, you are left wondering why they bothered.

Quotas of happy news, someone is yelling from the cheap seats.  That’s likely part of it.  If you look at the list of news releases for the week, they issued four on Monday and three on Tuesday.  On Wednesday, there were seven, not counting the two notes sent to editors that there would be two spending announcements later in the day. They made four spending announcements on Wednesday, incidentally.

There’s no polling that we know of. There’s no major controversy at the moment so yeah, quotas of happy news would seem to be a likely explanation.

Let’s look at something else, though.  One local reporter tweeted on Wednesday questioning the announcement of funding already announced, in effect, last year. If they funded it last year “of course” there’d be funding in 2012.

He garnered a comment from the Premier’s communications director:

There are no 'of courses' when it comes to budgeting. Multiple variables at play-affordability being a primary one.

Can’t take anything for granted, even government priorities.  Many things can change from year to year.

Now puhleeze.  These guys have had more cash than any previous government in the province’s history.  They have more in cash in the bank today than most governments ever had in any given year.  In fact, they might even have more than they did in 2003.

These guys have billions in cash earning interest while they wait to spend it on Muskrat Falls. A fraction of the interest on that $4.0 billion or so would cover way more than the chump change for this child care program. Affordability was never an issue in this case.  There were no variables at play at all.

As for the rest of it what the Premier’s comms director seems to be saying is simply unbelievable.  Not a good spot for a communications person to be in, mind you, but there it is.

But while she seemed to making a very general statement, those words  - the many variables – sounds rather like something else.  And there seems to be more to this release and others of its type than just quotas of happy news.  One of the bigger things we are seeing in this child care announcement is the growing disconnection between government communications and government operations.

It’s functionally the same as all those other announcements they make for projects that don’t actually happen until months or years later.  These days, the government budget speech is less about government’s spending program for the year than it is about the show for the news.

Not so very long ago, the budget itself was part of an annual process that had a great deal to do with keeping a very keen eye on spending.  By the early fall, departments were already talking to cabinet’s most powerful committee – Treasury Board – to find out the gross spending limits for the next year. 

As the weeks and months of the fall passed, Treasury Board would sharpen their focus line by line until you basically could get the budget done by February or so.  That allowed the government to put the budget in the House by March and get it approved before the new fiscal year started on April 1.

You could set your watch by it, the process was so well timed.  And you could map your year for spending and accomplishment by it.  Treasury Board could tell you within fractions of a percentage point how much cash they would have and how much they would spend.

Some time after 2003, that all went to crap.  At first, it looked like maybe Loyola Sullivan was just copying the Paul Martin formula for success: tell them the worst case predictions, no matter how implausible.  When things turn out better, you look like a genius.

The serial government always seemed to have trouble doing more than one thing at a time.  By early 2009, though, the “stimulus” announcements bundled the examples into a convenient pile for anyone interested in looking.  Later that year, Paul Oram started a huge political controversy by making budget announcements in run up to polling month.

No one announces budget cuts in August.

Period.

What the Oram-initiated debacle made plain was the extent to which things inside the upper reaches of government had grown increasingly nebulous as time went by.  Some time after 2003, the usual seasonal markers people inside government could use to keep things on track - start and end of the fiscal year, for example  – just disappeared.  Rather than forecasting actual government activity, the budget was just a general statement of intentions that might or might not turn out to be true.

There were no longer any “of courses” for government.

Just think about that.  The Premier’s communications director may have meant something else in her tweet but this alternative interpretation would explain an awful lot about a government that seems to have a chronic problem with getting stuff done on time and on budget.

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The Wet Bandits, Taliban version

One mid-level Taliban commander turned himself in to Afghan authorities in order to collect the reward mentioned on the BOLO poster local authorities issued for him.

According to the Washington Post:

When U.S. troops went to confirm that Ashan had in fact come forward to claim the finder’s fee, they were initially incredulous.

“We asked him, ‘Is this you?’ Mohammad Ashan answered with an incredible amount of enthusiasm, ‘Yes, yes, that’s me! Can I get my award now?’” recalled SPC Matthew Baker.

A biometric scan confirmed that the man in Afghan custody was the insurgent they had been looking for.

“This guy is the Taliban equivalent of the ‘Home Alone” burglars,” one U.S. official said.

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Sick parade #nlpoli

When you are home with a cold, there’s not much to do besides doze and read.

And when you are a political nerd at home with a cold, what better prezzie could there be than the papers presented at the Midwest Political Science Association?   Not much, is the answer, except the Monkey Cage, which offered up the links to the MPSA and a bunch of other gems.

Here’s one from the Monkey Cage to hold you until the old e-scribbler brain is de-fuzied.

The Oil Curse:  New book. Along with oil goes less democracy and economic instability.  Who knew?

There are four qualities of oil revenue, according to Michael Ross that make them so attractive to governments.  Your humble e-scribbler broke them out from Erik’s =post to make them easier to read quickly:

1. “The first is just the sheer scale of oil revenues. Government budgets tend to rise exponentially with oil discoveries. Increased revenues by themselves are not necessarily problematic but the source of the revenue also matters.”
2. Taxes versus oil royalties:  “If governments are funded by taxes, they become more constrained by their own populace than when they are funded by non-tax revenues (see here a more generalizable version of that argument from Kevin Morrison).”
3. “Third, oil revenues are very volatile compared to tax revenues. Most countries have little control over the world oil price, which falls and rises quite dramatically. They have some control over new oil discoveries but luck also plays a major role. Volatile revenues make for volatile politics, although some mature oil rich states (like Norway or the UAE) have managed to find ways to cope with this.”
4. “Fourth, oil revenues are secretive and relatively easy to hide. This facilitates corruption and hinders accountability.”

On that last one it was interesting to watch the evening news the past couple of days.  People are talking about home care and crumbling infrastructure.  No one mentioned the $4.0 billion in cash the provincial government is sitting on. 

Now they haven’t hid it completely.  The number is in the budget and other documents. It’s just hidden in plain site, so to speak.

Oh and it is going to pay for Muskrat Falls, in case you missed that little point.  Muskrat Falls becomes – in effect – a giant tax on the public, incidentally, but that’s another issue.  If no one “authoritative” speaks about it and no one in the media reports it, then it doesn’t really exist.  Come to think of it, that point is in among the conference papers somewhere.

Anyway, ask Kathy, Dwight and Lorraine about The Cash sometime. 

See what the Muskrat backers say.

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De apples and de oranges #nlpoli

You’d swear that provincial government departments had to hit quotas of good news media releases.

Environment minister Terry French issued one on Monday that claimed that the provincial government had beaten its greenhouse gas emission targets for the province.

Wonderful stuff.

And for what year, you may ask?

2010.

Stop and think for a second.  Two paper mills shut down in the province in 2005 and 2009.  The third one shut one of its two machines.  The Voisey’s Bay nickel mine was closed for a chunk of 2010 because of a labour dispute.

In the meantime, there wasn’t much in the way of new industrial activity.

There are also 70,000 few people in the province not driving cars and not running their wood stoves or burning oil to heat their homes.

So yeah, it’s not surprising that greenhouse gas emissions in the province dropped to levels not since for 20 years. 

Not content to let the good news go, French’s news release included this quote:

“We have witnessed significant real economic growth of 63 per cent since 1990, driven by offshore oil growth, at the same time that our emissions declined.   This represents a significant accomplishment for our province.”

Talk about connecting two things that are completely unconnected.  The economic growth he mentioned is due entirely to the increased prices for oil and some minerals produced in the province.  if we had opened a bunch of new manufacturing plants and dropped the GHG emissions, then there might be something to crow about.

The truth is, hitting that emissions target was relatively easy. And, to be sure, it had absolutely nothing to do with economic growth.

If you had to admit that, though, French and his comms director wouldn’t have been able to put another notch in the tally toward their quota of bullshite for the month.

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An alternative to A Grit-Dipper merger #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Okay so this is about the federal parties, but Rob Silver has a provocative idea.

But why not start a discussion between Liberals, New Democrats, Red Tories, and young people who have never been a member of a political party in their lives about a new vehicle – a new party. Consider it a blank slate. If we were starting from scratch, what would we fight for? How would we organize ourselves? So while there would still by definition be trade-offs (unless you start a new party by yourself, it's impossible for there not to be in politics), hopefully by starting something new, instead of squishing together two organizations with existing rules and structures, you could avoid the easy-to-imagine analysis of “who's taking over who,” “who won and who lost” that permeates so much Ottawa groupthink. Instead you'd create a new party for the next century. Naive potentially, I know.

The worst-case scenario? There's nothing there, both parties go on their merry way with new leaders and life goes on. Either there's something there to discuss, or not. Something that can be agreed to, or not. Something that a big enough group of caucus and membership of the parties are willing to leave their existing party in favour of, or not.

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Drug stores, mail carriers, and Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

As your humble e-scribbler pointed out in August 2011, the province’s drug store owners lost their fight against lower drug prices for consumers in the province.

Some of them – the so-called independents – are holding a news conference at some unspecified time later this week to explain just how badly they lost.  Surprisingly, that’s exactly how they plan to explain it:

This conference will outline the catastrophic losses to independent pharmacy from both the agreement imposed by government and the changes to generic prices forced by legislation.

That line is from early on in the notice they sent to news editors for tomorrow assignments.  Only later did they mention that the agreement the provincial government announced over the weekend might affect consumers badly.

It won’t.

Government officials know it won’t.

The same crowd of drug store owners uses exactly the same prediction of imminent catastrophe for drug store owners – and maybe their customers - any time the provincial government does anything to its provincial-funded drug plans. In the later 1990s,  it was in a racket over the dispensing fee drug stores charge. 

Despite the warnings of doom from many of the same drug store owners who are taking to the ramparts this time, the drug stores are still out there.  Sure the mix of “independent” to "chains" has shifted to near parity from a 66/33 split favouring independents. But when you realise that a decade and more ago that ratio in this province was already the flip of the situation across Canada, you can see that the locals aren’t doing so badly.

Don’t forget the really important point, though:  no one in the public is complaining they can’t find a drug store.

Consumers can still get their drugs.  They or their insurance company will pay less for them now.  And for seniors on the provincial plan, they are actually going to pay less than the mandatory price a decade ago. 

For consumers, this is nothing but a gigantic win.

For the record, note the dig in the notice at the president of the association representing all pharmacists (PANL). Consumers don’t give a rat’s backside about those internal feuds among the stores, either.

For the provincial government, this is one big win against the two opposition parties both of whom went to war for the drug store owners. Neither of the opposition parties sized up the issue politically.  That much is obvious.

The fundamental shag-up here is the same one that will affect the postal workers, incidentally.  A local union leader called one of the open line shows on Monday to gripe about how automation will get him on his rounds faster and help lower operating costs for the post office, which means hopefully that the cost of postage won’t be jumping up.

The guy went on and on about the inconvenience for him personally.  He talked about the possibility that some of his colleagues will lose their jobs because the improved speed and cost-effectiveness of the machinery.

Both the drug store owners and the postal worker are talking to themselves.  The people they need to win over in order to have a political impact are consumers.  Neither the drug store owners nor the postal workers have explained why consumers should give a toss.

The way your humble e-scribbler has framed the outcomes in both cases is how consumers will hear them or have heard them.

For those who have jumped ahead a bit, you can also see why the provincial government has been steadily losing support for its plan to jack up electricity rates and double the public debt or some such combination.   Consumers just don’t see any benefit for them in it.  A great many of them are flat-out opposed to the scheme.  They simply don’t believe Jerome, or Kathy, or Ed martin when they promise the moon and the stars but can’t deliver a simple report.

For those that don’t oppose it flatly, the rest are uncertain.  They have doubts.  The opposed and the unsure constitute a majority. If NTV and Telelink can scrape together the cash for a poll, they should do one very soon.  Telelink is the only truly independent pollster in the province on this issue with a track record for accuracy.

But where you’ve got it:  three groups, and all three suffering from the beginners fault of communicating with themselves instead of the people they need to persuade.

No surprise the three of them have lost or are losing badly.

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Our Secret Nation #nlpoli

Comedian Greg Malone is writing a book.

The title is Don’t tell the Newfoundlanders:  the true story of Newfoundland’s Confederation with Canada.

It is non-fiction.

Well, supposedly it is non-fiction.

That’s because any book or article with the “true story” in the title is pretty much guaranteed to be full of plenty of popular myths, fairy tales, folklore and just plain old bullshit.

The likelihood of getting the untrue story from any “true story”  goes off the dial when the book is about Confederation.  You see, since 1949, Newfoundland has had a thriving conspiracy industry centred on Confederation.  It rivals any of the grassy knoll, Area 51 stuff in the United States on any level.

And when you dig a little deeper you know you are going to get the real story that is as authentic as you might expect from an ersatz Barbara Frum. 

Last year, Mary Walsh interviewed Greg about his book when she filled in at The Current.  That’s a link to the audio and appropriately enough Greg follows on a discussion of humour in politics.  The blurb describes Greg’s book this way:

And he has uncovered what he says was a conspiracy to make sure Newfoundlanders did join Canada.

Yes, friends.

It is the same old schtick. 

Such old schtick, in fact, that historian Jeff Webb has already dealt with it. Such old schtick, in fact, someone made a movie out of it.

And it really is the same… old… schtick.  Malone credits the late Jim Halley as one of his inspirations for digging into Confederation.  With that starting point, you can be pretty much assured of what is coming. 

Malone doesn’t disappoint on that front.  Malone talks With Walsh about some Canadians lusting after iron ore and hydro-electricity in Labrador, the British/Canadian war debt written off against Confederation and all the rest of the stories that have been swirling around since the late 1940s.

There doesn’t look to be a fact, detail or argument from Malone you can’t find somewhere else.  And, inevitably, there are likely plenty of details Malone just never considered because they didn’t fit into his world view.

Apparently, the book is set for a Christmas release. 

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Related:

• Fantasy Island:  Flags of our Fathers edition
• Le declin de l’empire
• A tourist in her own land

Our failed state #nlpoli

The always sharp labradore has posted links to a report by the Foundation for Democratic Advancement on election finance laws across Canada.

You can find the full report here.  The Newfoundland and Labrador section starts on page 34.

The analysis (p. 38) reads, in part:

Based on the FDA scoring scale (see Conclusion section), Newfoundland and Labrador received an unsatisfactory score of 51.3 percent. This score means that Newfoundland and Labrador has numerous deficiencies in its electoral finance legislation and borders on a failed democratic state. The FDA believes that this legislation is not working in the interests of the majority in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Borders on a failed democratic state.

Doesn’t get much plainer than that.

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OK Go – Needing/Getting

A little something to cleanse your brain of all this political stuff.

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The Voice of Experience #nlpoli

Most of the people who have been talking about search and rescue the past couple of years – especially the politicians – know absolutely nothing about the subject at all.

At last, we have comments from someone who knows the subject from direct experience. 

Steve Reid is a retired helicopter pilot and was recently the commanding officer of 103 Squadron in Gander.  He knows what it means to risk his life for others.  He’s also got a letter in the Gander Beacon.

On the time to launch, a favourite one of a couple of the local political ghouls:

A 30-minute (daytime)/two-hour (off hours) posture provides unfair representation of the actual reaction times that SAR crews routinely achieve.  For 103 Squadron, a typical response from the flight line averages 19 minutes or less, while a quiet hour response usually takes just under an hour.

On the constant comparison with fire departments:

It would be great if all it took to launch a SAR aircraft was to turn a key to start an engine and then race down a highway, but this is not the case.  There are important factors to consider each time, such as en route weather conditions, air traffic control obligations and other specific mission requirements

He also talks about the growing mission for SAR since the 1940s and with it, the growing expectations:

And with this evolution, there are new pressures to contend with, such as an implied obligation for 103 Squadron helicopters to remain postured on the island in support of offshore activities, not to mention the long-standing support that the RCAF has provided to Newfoundland and Labrador for cases that fall under provincial jurisdiction.  These include support to ground SAR cases, which encompass all other forms of distress that are not automatically classified as aeronautical or maritime distress as well as humanitarian efforts such as hospital-to-hospital patient transfers.  Recognizing that Newfoundland and Labrador has unique geographic, meteorological and accessibility challenges, the number of cases for which the RCAF provides supplemental support outside of its federal mandate far exceeds all other provinces.  Most have dedicated resources assigned o meet their specific provincial obligations.

Read the whole letter.  It brings a reward you cannot get from anywhere else.

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DND to shut down 5 Wing base housing #nlpoli

From David Pugliese at the Ottawa Citizen:

■ Military housing at Goose Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador, Toronto, Vancouver and Winnipeg will be shut down.

The story appeared on April 11.

Biggest take away from that right up front is that all those Conservative promises for the last half dozen years about Goose Bay remain the total bullshit they always were.

Someone should ask Leo Abbass, John Hickey and other federal Conservative backers all about that.  After all, if DND sheds all that housing, that battalion or the UAV squadron or all the other BS that Leo and John campaigned for just isn’t showing up.

Then someone should contact local developers and see what a sudden dump of good affordable housing will do to the local market. 

Potentially very good for consumers.

Likely not so good for speculators.

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Fun Facts: Hibernia gas and Holyrood #nlpoli

From Stephen Bruneau’s submission to the public utilities board hearing on the Muskrat Falls project:

In 2010, the withdrawal and use of natural gas as a fuel for electrical generation and heating was greater for Hibernia alone than was the total oil-fired energy used at Holyrood for the same year.

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Breastfeeding Controversy for HITS FM #nlpoli

HITS FM morning crew  has stirred a bit of controversy for his remarks on April 11 about breastfeeding.

There’s an excellent account of it at Meeker on Media.  The HITS crew gained the ire of Tara Bradbury for his remarks about celebrity Mayim Bialik who is breastfed her son when he was aged three and a half years.

Bradbury commented , in part:

Beyond the surprise, I'm disappointed that Randy, being in a position of celebrity in this province, would help perpetuate a stigma that our Department of Health, hospitals, public health nurses and other health groups have been busting their butts for years trying to eradicate. 90% of Canadian moms choose to start breastfeeding their newborns; in this province, only 63% do. By the time these babies are six months old, only 10 per cent of them are still breastfed.

She’s right.  Breastfeeding rates in this province are appallingly low.

You can find the audio file on the HITS FM website.  That link came via Dara Squires’ blog where you’ll find even more on this controversy.

Scroll down a bit in her piece and you will find a link to a Canadian Public Health Association paper on breastfeeding in this province.  it dates from 2006 but the information is still pretty much the state of affairs today.

The provincial government still doesn’t have a breastfeeding policy.

Figuring out a policy really isn’t all that hard to do.  You have to wanna.

Breastfeeding:  it’s what your tits are for.

- srbp -