A post last week on Bond Papers brought attention to the prospect of vote fraud in the upcoming municipal election in St. John's owing to the vote-by-mail system being used.
Unfortunately, city officials have apparently neglected to provide any measures to discourage, prevent, detect or otherwise eliminate vote fraud.
A story in the Sunday Telegram by Terry Roberts quotes Neil Martin, the City Clerk, as saying that city officials assume everyone will be honest and that there is no way to prevent vote fraud. Since the story isn't available online, I'll try and get a copy of it and post the story here.
Martin is quoted as saying: "We have to trust that people will do what's correct. If we assume there will be corruption, then there's not much we can do."
According to Martin, "We [city officials] are as prudent as we can be. We're ensuring the voter's list is entirely up to date. The ballot is mailed to the person on the list, that person signs and sends us back the voter declaration form, along with the ballot."
At no point did Martin indicate how city officials will ensure that the vote returned was actually cast by the person to whom it was mailed. Nor is there any indication of how the city is ensuring its voter list does not include people who are no longer qualified to vote or who have died.
The Bond Papers' contention that vote fraud was a possibility in St. John's can now be changed to vote fraud is a probability.
It's not as though vote fraud is a rare thing.
The last provincial general election included allegations of voting irregularities in the mail-in ballot system used.
As this British Broadcasting Corporation story reports, electoral fraud in the 2004 Birmingham municipal contest was of such a nature that a judicial inquiry declared the whole election invalid. The link to a BBC video news report on the BBC site describes the electoral fraud in greater detail. The entire scheme involved as few as 1, 500 votes in a municipality with a larger population than the whole of Newfoundland and Labrador. That was enough to skew the entire result, however.
Part of the concern expressed by the Birmingham investigation was that the vote envelopes were so easy to identify that one could not make them more inviting by writing "Steal Me" in bold letters across the front of the package. Ballot envelopes were reportedly taken from postal workers and from household letter boxes, brought to a couple of locations and then completed and returned.
The same situation can easily exist in St. John's, and as the city clerk admits, there were reports in 2001 of ballots laying about in hallways of apartment buildings throughout the city. No one knows where those ballots went or if they were cast. The city cannot tell if they were cast or not, even though the vote-by-mail system is touted as having produced a 10% increase in voter participation compared to the previous general election. That increase in participation coupled with the supposed cash savings to the city are the two reasons given by city officials for going to a completely mail-in vote system.
Any election may be subject to attempts at fraudulent voting. In this instance fraud is taken to mean:
- voting by someone not entitled to vote;
- submission of multiple votes by the same individual (in a one person/one vote system); or,
- removal of ballots in order to discourage voting.
Electoral systems across North America take active measures to prevent voter fraud and preventing fraud is a key part of preserving the legitimacy of the entire electoral process. In a system where the right to govern derives from attaining a majority or plurality of individual votes, voters must have confidence that the system is as free as possible from fraud.
In the State of Oregon, which successfully conducted an entire state-wide election using vote-by-mail, the state government has implemented simple mechanisms using available technology to ensure that each mail-in ballot is cast legally.
By contrast, the City of St. John's has produced an electoral system in which a city official now admits City Hall is completely unconcerned with the prospect of fraud.
Consider the numbers and the realities.
There are approximately 79, 000 eligible voters in the City of St. John's, according to Martin. Given death and the mobility of people in a growing city, it is reasonable to assume approximately 10% of the list will be changed for this election from the previous one.
For a concrete example, consider that both my elderly grandparents passed away since the last general election. The city's list may miss them out. If they receive ballots, count on them being intercepted by my parents who will ensure the ballots are destroyed or returned to City officials unopened.
Others may not be so scrupulous.
Of course, even if the City of St. John's actually has a completely accurate voter list that eliminates all dead people, they still cannot ensure that ballots will not be stolen and cast by someone other than the legitimate voter.
The City Clerk may point to the signature on the returned ballot as some proof of legitimacy. Unfortunately, he has no way of comparing signatures to ensure that the one sent back is from the correct person. That's the system Oregon uses and the one Martin dismisses as being too costly.
In Oregon, the state government funds a process of voter registration and many community organizations and political parties assist in voter registration at no cost to taxpayers. After all, it's in their interest to ensure the system works properly and such a system promotes voter involvement - supposedly one of the goals of the St. John's system. There is no reason to believe such a system couldn't work in St. John's to help ensure the voting system is free of corruption.
The City's system would work to eliminate fraud only if there was 100% participation. In that system, any duplicate ballots and signatures could be easily detected.
Here's the rub: the actual participation rate is now only 60%. City officials can still attain what the Telegram reports as their goal of 75% participation rate in this election, but the increase could be the result of people sending in ballots solely from the residents of the city who are too disinterested to bother to replace a stolen ballot.
To understand the importance of eliminating fraud, consider this: with about 79, 000 eligible voters, 10% to 15% would mean that between 7, 900 and 11, 850 ballots could be fraudulently returned, achieving the desired increase in participation albeit illegally.
Flip over to the City of St. John's website and take a look at the returns for the last election.
- Only 6, 000 more votes would have put Vince Withers in the mayor's chair.
- About the same number of votes put Gerry Colbert in the deputy mayor's chair. His rival was Sandy Gibbons.
- In Ward 1, Art Puddister won by only 1400 votes or so.
- In Ward 4, Kevin Breen took his seat with only a couple of thousand more votes than his nearest rival.
- At large, Tom Hann and Geoff Peters were only a couple of thousand votes behind either Sandy Hickman (who won the by-election) and Dorothy Wyatt.
Of course, the vote-by-mail system actually isn't about fair and legitimate elections. Its official purpose is to get a result as cheaply as possible.
According to the Telegram, the city has budgeted a little under $400, 000 for the election with the bulk of the costs being eaten up by postage.
Although polling day (the date for final receipt of ballots) is September 27th, city officials expect that upwards of 95% of the total ballots cast will be returned within 10 days of their being mailed out on September 9th.
For those who are good at math, that means the election will effectively be over a week before polling day, at the latest.
The city's election system will produce results at a lower cost than traditional forms of voting, but the question remains what the cost will be to democracy.
29 August 2005
A public embarrassment
This week, governors from the New England states and premiers from Ontario, Quebec and the four Atlantic provinces are in St. John's for their annual conference.
This is a major international event, with the provinces and states discussing major issues of international trade affecting the northeastern part of the continent.
For this province, it is a chance to showcase what we have to offer and to further strengthen our trading relationships with New England. The premier is about to announce a multi-million dollar contract with a local advertising company to "rebrand" Newfoundland and Labrador. Essentially, he wants to convince our potential trade partners that this is a sophisticated, modern place with which to do business.
That's what makes the government's New England business page, linked from this VOCM web story, such an inexcusable insult to the people and businesses of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Let's walk through the thing and see what we find:
1. Next to a nice smiling picture of Kathy Dunderdale, there is a button that invites us to click it to see the introduction "play".
2. Click it an all you get is a static picture if you use any browser other than Microsoft's own Internet Explorer. Computer programmers will tell you that Explorer is the most common browser out there. Ok. But if I am one of the smart people who uses a browser that hackers can't screw with, why am I getting a second-rate site?
3. There is an instruction on the picture that appears on Firefox that tells you to click the buttons on the left for further information. The buttons are on the right.
4. Click on the button that asks if you are interested in doing business in Newfoundland and Labrador, and you are wisked to a page featuring the smiling face of our own Premier Danny Williams. That's good so far.
5. Click on the button "Your business here", which already looks like a placeholder in a rough draft of the site.
6. Under "Strategic Location and Transportation", you'll find some useful basic information about the province.
7. The first picture in this section appears to be an United States Navy aircraft handling crew from one of its aircraft carriers.
8. The next picture is a fisheries patrol aircraft. That service is supplied by a local company but you won't find a single mention of Provincial Airlines and its subsidiaries anywhere else in the site. Beyond that you won't find any visual proof of our well developed air transportation sector. Nope. Just by looking, I'd think the only way to get here was by small bush plane - a culvert with wings.
9. Under market advantage, the information is ok. Why is there a picture of a defunct Newfoundland stamp and pre-Confederation Newfoundland coins?
10. On the research and development page, try and find mention of the companies like Rutter Technologies, Northstar Network or Northern Radar, all of whom have developed highly competitive, high technology products from their base in Newfoundland and Labrador. They get reduced to a single mention as being "Many local firms..." long after there are extensive paragraphs on publicly owned research facilities.
11. Oh yeah, check out the pictures and see if those don't look like the kind of basic manufacturing you'd find anywhere on the planet.
12. Under "Industrial Infrastructure", there's that carrier deck crew waiting again. The information is generic and the facilities that do exist in the province, like Marystown and Bull Arm don't get a mention or a link. There's just a generic discussion of the fact we have industrial parks...just like you can find anywhere.
13. Under "Communications" , there is a bunch of generic information - nothing to grab your attention - , along with some links to those same public sector outfits mentioned on another page. There is reference to the technology industries association, but nothing on specific achievements. Those are the kinds of things people looking to do business here want to know: what have local companies done - Rutter, Stratos, Northern Radar, GRI Simulations...not a mention.
14. Under "Communications Contacts", you'll find a bunch of associations yet again. Under government contacts, the federal government's Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency is listed under "Provincial Government" contacts.
15. On the main menu again, "Business News" takes you to Kathy Dunderdale's department and its own list of news releases. There's no way to find more detailed information on real business news from the province. If you use Firefox to get to this page you get a message that it is "coming soon".
16. Under trade shows and mission, the page on Explorer went suddenly blank while I was checking it out. Under Mozilla it gave me a list of 11 events occurring between May and June 2005. All the specifics were in 2004! As of 4:00 PM Sunday this was suddenly reading "Available Soon!" - but 2005 is half over, people! Mozilla still gives me the 2004 listing for events but the news page goes to the government site..
17. Back to the home page again, and click on the business directories. The petroleum one is from 2002 - grossly out of date. On none of the directories will you find a hotlink to a website or an active hotlinked e-mail address. So much for showing we can use modern technology.
Overall, this site is a public embarrassment. It might be tidied up by Monday and some of the glaring problems fixed, but some of the more substantive ones won't be corrected - it would require major revamping of the website.
Before we spend dollar one on any advertising campaign, the Premier needs to get a grip on his government.
Marketers can claim we are anything they want. The public relations guys will look at actual performance - your reputation and credibility.
If I were to judge by the nlbusiness.ca website, I'd get the idea Newfoundland and Labrador is not a place to do business.
That is far from true - but a half-assed government website that promotes public sector interests at the expense of the private sector won't attract any interest to the province except head-shaking.
This is a major international event, with the provinces and states discussing major issues of international trade affecting the northeastern part of the continent.
For this province, it is a chance to showcase what we have to offer and to further strengthen our trading relationships with New England. The premier is about to announce a multi-million dollar contract with a local advertising company to "rebrand" Newfoundland and Labrador. Essentially, he wants to convince our potential trade partners that this is a sophisticated, modern place with which to do business.
That's what makes the government's New England business page, linked from this VOCM web story, such an inexcusable insult to the people and businesses of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Let's walk through the thing and see what we find:
1. Next to a nice smiling picture of Kathy Dunderdale, there is a button that invites us to click it to see the introduction "play".
2. Click it an all you get is a static picture if you use any browser other than Microsoft's own Internet Explorer. Computer programmers will tell you that Explorer is the most common browser out there. Ok. But if I am one of the smart people who uses a browser that hackers can't screw with, why am I getting a second-rate site?
3. There is an instruction on the picture that appears on Firefox that tells you to click the buttons on the left for further information. The buttons are on the right.
4. Click on the button that asks if you are interested in doing business in Newfoundland and Labrador, and you are wisked to a page featuring the smiling face of our own Premier Danny Williams. That's good so far.
5. Click on the button "Your business here", which already looks like a placeholder in a rough draft of the site.
6. Under "Strategic Location and Transportation", you'll find some useful basic information about the province.
7. The first picture in this section appears to be an United States Navy aircraft handling crew from one of its aircraft carriers.
8. The next picture is a fisheries patrol aircraft. That service is supplied by a local company but you won't find a single mention of Provincial Airlines and its subsidiaries anywhere else in the site. Beyond that you won't find any visual proof of our well developed air transportation sector. Nope. Just by looking, I'd think the only way to get here was by small bush plane - a culvert with wings.
9. Under market advantage, the information is ok. Why is there a picture of a defunct Newfoundland stamp and pre-Confederation Newfoundland coins?
10. On the research and development page, try and find mention of the companies like Rutter Technologies, Northstar Network or Northern Radar, all of whom have developed highly competitive, high technology products from their base in Newfoundland and Labrador. They get reduced to a single mention as being "Many local firms..." long after there are extensive paragraphs on publicly owned research facilities.
11. Oh yeah, check out the pictures and see if those don't look like the kind of basic manufacturing you'd find anywhere on the planet.
12. Under "Industrial Infrastructure", there's that carrier deck crew waiting again. The information is generic and the facilities that do exist in the province, like Marystown and Bull Arm don't get a mention or a link. There's just a generic discussion of the fact we have industrial parks...just like you can find anywhere.
13. Under "Communications" , there is a bunch of generic information - nothing to grab your attention - , along with some links to those same public sector outfits mentioned on another page. There is reference to the technology industries association, but nothing on specific achievements. Those are the kinds of things people looking to do business here want to know: what have local companies done - Rutter, Stratos, Northern Radar, GRI Simulations...not a mention.
14. Under "Communications Contacts", you'll find a bunch of associations yet again. Under government contacts, the federal government's Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency is listed under "Provincial Government" contacts.
15. On the main menu again, "Business News" takes you to Kathy Dunderdale's department and its own list of news releases. There's no way to find more detailed information on real business news from the province. If you use Firefox to get to this page you get a message that it is "coming soon".
16. Under trade shows and mission, the page on Explorer went suddenly blank while I was checking it out. Under Mozilla it gave me a list of 11 events occurring between May and June 2005. All the specifics were in 2004! As of 4:00 PM Sunday this was suddenly reading "Available Soon!" - but 2005 is half over, people! Mozilla still gives me the 2004 listing for events but the news page goes to the government site..
17. Back to the home page again, and click on the business directories. The petroleum one is from 2002 - grossly out of date. On none of the directories will you find a hotlink to a website or an active hotlinked e-mail address. So much for showing we can use modern technology.
Overall, this site is a public embarrassment. It might be tidied up by Monday and some of the glaring problems fixed, but some of the more substantive ones won't be corrected - it would require major revamping of the website.
Before we spend dollar one on any advertising campaign, the Premier needs to get a grip on his government.
Marketers can claim we are anything they want. The public relations guys will look at actual performance - your reputation and credibility.
If I were to judge by the nlbusiness.ca website, I'd get the idea Newfoundland and Labrador is not a place to do business.
That is far from true - but a half-assed government website that promotes public sector interests at the expense of the private sector won't attract any interest to the province except head-shaking.
Canadian campaign blog
For political junkies, few things could get them as excited as a new blog from an anonymous but obviously experienced campaigner.
Campaign Central is only a few days old but already the posts have touched on some of the interesting apsects of political campaigns: demographics and communication methods.
Add this one to your "must-read" column.
On a related subject, I have been fiddling with some posts about local campaigns and the way they have traditionally approached things like advertising, media relations and the use of research.
Looking around at the St. John's municipal campaign, there is a great feature piece for local media comparing and critiquing the signs and the approaches. That one will wind up being a post mortem, though since I am actively involved in the campaign right now.
Campaign Central is only a few days old but already the posts have touched on some of the interesting apsects of political campaigns: demographics and communication methods.
Add this one to your "must-read" column.
On a related subject, I have been fiddling with some posts about local campaigns and the way they have traditionally approached things like advertising, media relations and the use of research.
Looking around at the St. John's municipal campaign, there is a great feature piece for local media comparing and critiquing the signs and the approaches. That one will wind up being a post mortem, though since I am actively involved in the campaign right now.
28 August 2005
Eric Gullage to challenge Coombs?
There's a rumour circulating in some circles that former city councillor, former member of the House of Assembly and former cabinet minister Eric Gullage is considering entering the municipal race in Ward Three.
That's the seat currently held by Keith Coombs, junior high school principal and firm believer in running up deficits at City Hall so he can watch hockey games cheap.
Since Ward Three covers most of the district Gullage once represented in the House of Assembly, that's where the widely respected insurance executive is likely to be strongest.
Odds are good that the contest would quickly develop into a two-way race between Gullage and Coombs, leaving the only other declared candidate with a low profile.
Gullage might find that there is a lot of dissatisfaction in the Ward with incumbent Coombs, the sort of stuff that might not be readily apparent or turn up in simple polling.
More sophisticated polling would give him good reason to believe that he could defeat Coombs handily.
Make up your mind, Eric. You might be surprised by the results.
That's the seat currently held by Keith Coombs, junior high school principal and firm believer in running up deficits at City Hall so he can watch hockey games cheap.
Since Ward Three covers most of the district Gullage once represented in the House of Assembly, that's where the widely respected insurance executive is likely to be strongest.
Odds are good that the contest would quickly develop into a two-way race between Gullage and Coombs, leaving the only other declared candidate with a low profile.
Gullage might find that there is a lot of dissatisfaction in the Ward with incumbent Coombs, the sort of stuff that might not be readily apparent or turn up in simple polling.
More sophisticated polling would give him good reason to believe that he could defeat Coombs handily.
Make up your mind, Eric. You might be surprised by the results.
27 August 2005
Blog changes
Some of you may have noticed some changes on the sidebar over the past few weeks.
1. The experiment with advertising died a quiet death. Aside from anything else, the systems are set up to maximise the exposure for the advertisers and minimise the potential for actually having to pay out to the sites where the advertising is. They are gone and they won't be back.
2. Ditto for the news headlines. Seems the guy maintaining it took a vacation and never came back. I found it useful, so if he cranks up again, I'll put it back.
3. Gone as well is the TTLB ecosystem ranking. It looked cute when I first checked it out, but I found that it simply counts the number of links your site has on other sites. That hardly seems relevant to anything, so therefore, there's no point in keeping it up.
For example even though the Bond readership has grown steadily over the past 9 months and the average number of page loads (the number of pages each visitor reads) has gone up, TTLB has actually dropped the Bond Papers ranking below that of sites with significantly less readership.
In the meantime, the fish paper is still sitting there, challenging me to dare to finish it off. It is coming. As soon as I can muster the energy and find the time for the last edit.
1. The experiment with advertising died a quiet death. Aside from anything else, the systems are set up to maximise the exposure for the advertisers and minimise the potential for actually having to pay out to the sites where the advertising is. They are gone and they won't be back.
2. Ditto for the news headlines. Seems the guy maintaining it took a vacation and never came back. I found it useful, so if he cranks up again, I'll put it back.
3. Gone as well is the TTLB ecosystem ranking. It looked cute when I first checked it out, but I found that it simply counts the number of links your site has on other sites. That hardly seems relevant to anything, so therefore, there's no point in keeping it up.
For example even though the Bond readership has grown steadily over the past 9 months and the average number of page loads (the number of pages each visitor reads) has gone up, TTLB has actually dropped the Bond Papers ranking below that of sites with significantly less readership.
In the meantime, the fish paper is still sitting there, challenging me to dare to finish it off. It is coming. As soon as I can muster the energy and find the time for the last edit.
26 August 2005
Don't quit your day job, Andy
Some people might think that this announcement moves Andy Wells one step closer to heading up the board that regulates oil and gas exploration and production offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.
Don't count on it.
The province announced today its member on what will ultimately be a three person panel.
That's all that happened.
The job description has already been agreed upon and the list of qualifications has been established. Dean MacDonald, buddy of the Premier and board chairman of the province's hydro Crown corporation only has one vote out of three. Don't expect the federal appointee to be looking too favourably on the Premier's pick, just because Wells isn't qualified for the job.
The deciding vote may well be the third person chosen to chair the three-member panel.
If that person is genuinely neutral and committed to meritorious hiring, and if the voters of St. John's re-elect him, Andy Wells will be sitting in his office on New Gower Street in the New Year pondering what might have been.
Don't count on it.
The province announced today its member on what will ultimately be a three person panel.
That's all that happened.
The job description has already been agreed upon and the list of qualifications has been established. Dean MacDonald, buddy of the Premier and board chairman of the province's hydro Crown corporation only has one vote out of three. Don't expect the federal appointee to be looking too favourably on the Premier's pick, just because Wells isn't qualified for the job.
The deciding vote may well be the third person chosen to chair the three-member panel.
If that person is genuinely neutral and committed to meritorious hiring, and if the voters of St. John's re-elect him, Andy Wells will be sitting in his office on New Gower Street in the New Year pondering what might have been.
What's buggin' Bill?
Crap Talk host Bill Rowe took exception on Thursday to this initiative by St. John's council at-large candidate Simon Lono.
In the interests of full disclosure, Lono is an old buddy of mine and I am working with him on the campaign.
That said, Rowe seemed to find Lono's release today of a basic code of ethical conduct for city councillors to be something that was irksome, troublesome or maybe even obnoxious.
If the whole thing is a statement of the obvious, as Rowe suggested, then Rowe shouldn't have any trouble with it and councillors should be willing to sign on.
Rowe argued at one point that politics is about differences of opinion and conflict. There's a penetrating insight into the obvious, Bill, bye. The question for St. John's residents for as long as I can remember has been how to have the sort of disputes and differences of opinion that are bound to happen without them degenerating into a name calling contest.
In any other place, people would be mortified at having the mayor and a councillor labeling each other as "morons" in a public council meeting and then taking each other to court. That battle was at public expense, if I recall correctly. Even if the two paid out of their own pockets, just the notion that these guys wound up doing everything but sticking out their tongues at each other defies understanding.
Maybe Bill recalls his time when he was a member of the provincial legislature. Back in those days, members sometimes took to fistfights in the precincts of the legislature to settle personal scraps.
Truthfully, I find it really hard to figure out Rowe's line of reasoning.
The sarcastic s.o.b in me wonders if maybe Rowe is afraid that his show will become a place to discuss public issues based on facts.
Maybe Rowe perturbed by the prospect Lono's proposal will resonate so strongly with voters that they'll want to call about ethics rather than clog up the lines moaning about the fortunes of some guy from the province competing in a national televised star search.
Maybe Rowe's annoyed because discussion of Lono's proposal won't let him refer to Newfoundland and Labrador as "a pimple on the arse" of some other place, to use Rowe's phrase.
Maybe things will become a bit clearer later on Friday when Lono calls Rowe's show.
In the meantime, flip over to Lono's site and see what he has been talking about.
In the interests of full disclosure, Lono is an old buddy of mine and I am working with him on the campaign.
That said, Rowe seemed to find Lono's release today of a basic code of ethical conduct for city councillors to be something that was irksome, troublesome or maybe even obnoxious.
If the whole thing is a statement of the obvious, as Rowe suggested, then Rowe shouldn't have any trouble with it and councillors should be willing to sign on.
Rowe argued at one point that politics is about differences of opinion and conflict. There's a penetrating insight into the obvious, Bill, bye. The question for St. John's residents for as long as I can remember has been how to have the sort of disputes and differences of opinion that are bound to happen without them degenerating into a name calling contest.
In any other place, people would be mortified at having the mayor and a councillor labeling each other as "morons" in a public council meeting and then taking each other to court. That battle was at public expense, if I recall correctly. Even if the two paid out of their own pockets, just the notion that these guys wound up doing everything but sticking out their tongues at each other defies understanding.
Maybe Bill recalls his time when he was a member of the provincial legislature. Back in those days, members sometimes took to fistfights in the precincts of the legislature to settle personal scraps.
Truthfully, I find it really hard to figure out Rowe's line of reasoning.
The sarcastic s.o.b in me wonders if maybe Rowe is afraid that his show will become a place to discuss public issues based on facts.
Maybe Rowe perturbed by the prospect Lono's proposal will resonate so strongly with voters that they'll want to call about ethics rather than clog up the lines moaning about the fortunes of some guy from the province competing in a national televised star search.
Maybe Rowe's annoyed because discussion of Lono's proposal won't let him refer to Newfoundland and Labrador as "a pimple on the arse" of some other place, to use Rowe's phrase.
Maybe things will become a bit clearer later on Friday when Lono calls Rowe's show.
In the meantime, flip over to Lono's site and see what he has been talking about.
25 August 2005
Snowbirds: ground 'em or replace 'em.
This story from CTV highlights the need for Canadians to get a serious grip on their need for an air force aerobatic team.
They are flying aircraft so old that they out to be in a museum.
Accident rates appear to be quite high and I can assure you that it is not the result of the highly demanding and difficult flying the Snowbirds do.
It's time for DND to make a simple decision:
1. Replace the Snowbird's decrepit Tutor aircraft with something modern.
0r
2. Pull them from the sky and direct the cash somewhere else.
- Maybe some operationally needed equipment like heavy lift helicopters or some helicopter gunships.
Lives are at stake here and there's no point in losing them so people can get a cheap thrill on the ground.
They are flying aircraft so old that they out to be in a museum.
Accident rates appear to be quite high and I can assure you that it is not the result of the highly demanding and difficult flying the Snowbirds do.
It's time for DND to make a simple decision:
1. Replace the Snowbird's decrepit Tutor aircraft with something modern.
0r
2. Pull them from the sky and direct the cash somewhere else.
- Maybe some operationally needed equipment like heavy lift helicopters or some helicopter gunships.
Lives are at stake here and there's no point in losing them so people can get a cheap thrill on the ground.
24 August 2005
Pat Robertson: stooge
Funny how when prominent people say really stupid things, the first line of defense is always to blame the media for misquoting them.
In the case of American televangelist, erstwhile Republican presidential candidate and typical fruitcake, he was quoted accurately by Associated Press and everyone else who has listened to his comments on Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez.
Here's the CNN story, which includes a link to the video of Robertson.
Robertson thinks that Chavez is such a threat to American interest that the American government should "take him [Chavez] out." Both the words themselves and the context in which they are made make it clear that Robertson is talking about assassination.
Now here's the funky thing about Robertson's comments: there isn't a shred of evidence that Chavez is doing anything vaguely like planning to export "communism" and "Islamic terrorism".
Nope. The only thing Chavez has been doing is supporting Castro and thereby extending Venezuelan influence in a little country that people like Robertson think is their personal property. In other words, it's an old fashioned power issue with people like Robertson misleading people right and right. (Robertson could never do anything left and right.)
The other thing that Robertson is likely looking at is Venezuela's large oil stocks. With people across the United States paying high prices for gasoline, it's pretty easy for a demagogue like Robertson to find a scapegoat in Chavez.
Irony in all this is that only a short while ago, the supposed Christian Robertson was advocating dropping a nuclear bomb in the middle of Washington and at the same time claiming that the Quran advocated violence.
Apparently Robertson never heard of the part of the Bible that maps out a set of simple rules to live by.
They are called the 10 Commandments.
Robertson might want to check out the one prohibiting murder and killing.
In the case of American televangelist, erstwhile Republican presidential candidate and typical fruitcake, he was quoted accurately by Associated Press and everyone else who has listened to his comments on Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez.
Here's the CNN story, which includes a link to the video of Robertson.
Robertson thinks that Chavez is such a threat to American interest that the American government should "take him [Chavez] out." Both the words themselves and the context in which they are made make it clear that Robertson is talking about assassination.
Now here's the funky thing about Robertson's comments: there isn't a shred of evidence that Chavez is doing anything vaguely like planning to export "communism" and "Islamic terrorism".
Nope. The only thing Chavez has been doing is supporting Castro and thereby extending Venezuelan influence in a little country that people like Robertson think is their personal property. In other words, it's an old fashioned power issue with people like Robertson misleading people right and right. (Robertson could never do anything left and right.)
The other thing that Robertson is likely looking at is Venezuela's large oil stocks. With people across the United States paying high prices for gasoline, it's pretty easy for a demagogue like Robertson to find a scapegoat in Chavez.
Irony in all this is that only a short while ago, the supposed Christian Robertson was advocating dropping a nuclear bomb in the middle of Washington and at the same time claiming that the Quran advocated violence.
Apparently Robertson never heard of the part of the Bible that maps out a set of simple rules to live by.
They are called the 10 Commandments.
Robertson might want to check out the one prohibiting murder and killing.
Brian who?
Yet another poll, by SES Research, this time into possible successors to Paul Martin and Stephen Harper.
Notice that Brian Tobin, long rumoured to be plotting his comeback as saviour of the nation to replace Paul Martin has dropped completely from Canadian radar screens. In fact, if you look closely at the SES results fewer than five people out of 1, 000 possibly mentioned his name when asked to name a favoured successor to the current Prime Minister.
Now if only people like me would stop talking about Tobin and if people like Lisa Moore would stop featuring the guy Belinda's Dad canned in her movies (solely as a marketing ploy), maybe the Tobinator would disappear altogether. It was pretty bad when media took to giving That Guy way too much airtime to repeat his one cheesy, lame Frank Moores story when the former premier passed away recently.
I'll promise I'll stop mentioning That Guy by name.
But just to be on the safe side, I have a cross, some wooden stakes, a string of raw garlic, silver bullets, and a 55 gallon drum of Holy Water with a high pressure hose attached, in the basement.
Just in case.
Here's the text of the SES release:
Our national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows that Frank McKenna is the top choice to succeed Prime Minister Martin while Peter MacKay edges out former Ontario Premier Mike Harrier as the choice to succeed Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.
"On the Liberal side, Frank McKenna has a noticeable lead among Canadians and among committed Liberal voters. He leads in every region except in Ontario, where polling shows former NDP Ontario Premier Bob Rae leads McKenna by a margin of three points."
"On the Conservative side, Peter MacKay is the top choice among committed Tory voters (30%). The field tightens with MacKay (17%) and Mike Harris (15%) in a statistical tie with Bernard Lord trailing closely (13%).
Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, MoE ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Potential Martin Successors (N=1,000, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).
Question: Regardless of how you vote, who would be your choice to succeed Paul Martin as Liberal leader? (READ AND ROTATE) Former federal Justice Minister Martin Cauchon, Harvard Professor Michael Ignatieff, Former Deputy Prime Minister John Manley, Former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna, Former Ontario Premier Bob Rae or is there someone else?
Frank McKenna 23% (Liberal voters 28%)
Bob Rae 11% (Liberal voters 11%)
John Manley 11% (Liberal voters 13%)
Martin Cauchon 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Michael Ignatieff 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Other* 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Undecided 43% (Liberal voters 37%)
* Note: fewer than five responses
Potential Harper Successors (N=1,000, MoE ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20).
Regardless of how you vote, who would be your choice to succeed Stephen Harper as Conservative Leader? (READ AND ROTATE) Quebec Premier Jean Charest, Former Ontario Premier Mike Harris, New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord, Deputy Conservative Leader Peter MacKay, Conservative MP Jim Prentice, or is there someone else?
Peter MacKay 17% (Conservative voters 30%)
Mike Harris 15% (Conservative voters 21%)
Bernard Lord 13% (Conservative voters 12%)
Jean Charest 9% (Conservative voters 6%)
Jim Prentice 3% (Conservative voters 5%)
Other* 2% (Conservative voters 2%)
Undecided 41% (Conservative voters 25%)
* Note: fewer than five responses
Notice that Brian Tobin, long rumoured to be plotting his comeback as saviour of the nation to replace Paul Martin has dropped completely from Canadian radar screens. In fact, if you look closely at the SES results fewer than five people out of 1, 000 possibly mentioned his name when asked to name a favoured successor to the current Prime Minister.
Now if only people like me would stop talking about Tobin and if people like Lisa Moore would stop featuring the guy Belinda's Dad canned in her movies (solely as a marketing ploy), maybe the Tobinator would disappear altogether. It was pretty bad when media took to giving That Guy way too much airtime to repeat his one cheesy, lame Frank Moores story when the former premier passed away recently.
I'll promise I'll stop mentioning That Guy by name.
But just to be on the safe side, I have a cross, some wooden stakes, a string of raw garlic, silver bullets, and a 55 gallon drum of Holy Water with a high pressure hose attached, in the basement.
Just in case.
Here's the text of the SES release:
Our national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows that Frank McKenna is the top choice to succeed Prime Minister Martin while Peter MacKay edges out former Ontario Premier Mike Harrier as the choice to succeed Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.
"On the Liberal side, Frank McKenna has a noticeable lead among Canadians and among committed Liberal voters. He leads in every region except in Ontario, where polling shows former NDP Ontario Premier Bob Rae leads McKenna by a margin of three points."
"On the Conservative side, Peter MacKay is the top choice among committed Tory voters (30%). The field tightens with MacKay (17%) and Mike Harris (15%) in a statistical tie with Bernard Lord trailing closely (13%).
Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, MoE ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Potential Martin Successors (N=1,000, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).
Question: Regardless of how you vote, who would be your choice to succeed Paul Martin as Liberal leader? (READ AND ROTATE) Former federal Justice Minister Martin Cauchon, Harvard Professor Michael Ignatieff, Former Deputy Prime Minister John Manley, Former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna, Former Ontario Premier Bob Rae or is there someone else?
Frank McKenna 23% (Liberal voters 28%)
Bob Rae 11% (Liberal voters 11%)
John Manley 11% (Liberal voters 13%)
Martin Cauchon 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Michael Ignatieff 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Other* 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Undecided 43% (Liberal voters 37%)
* Note: fewer than five responses
Potential Harper Successors (N=1,000, MoE ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20).
Regardless of how you vote, who would be your choice to succeed Stephen Harper as Conservative Leader? (READ AND ROTATE) Quebec Premier Jean Charest, Former Ontario Premier Mike Harris, New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord, Deputy Conservative Leader Peter MacKay, Conservative MP Jim Prentice, or is there someone else?
Peter MacKay 17% (Conservative voters 30%)
Mike Harris 15% (Conservative voters 21%)
Bernard Lord 13% (Conservative voters 12%)
Jean Charest 9% (Conservative voters 6%)
Jim Prentice 3% (Conservative voters 5%)
Other* 2% (Conservative voters 2%)
Undecided 41% (Conservative voters 25%)
* Note: fewer than five responses
SES-Sun media poll - Harper and Martin
Following is the ext of a release by SES Research on public attitudes toward the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition.
Given the results of other opinion polls which show Prime Minister Paul Martin with a significant lead over Opposition Leader Stephen Harper, take note of the SES results showing that about half of respondents couldn't name something they'd like to change about Harper. That doesn't mean they like him as he is; it means they couldn't settle on what they would change about him. At the very least it means they haven't really thought about Harper enough to form a strong opinion.
In politics, when you are loved or hated at least the voters have a feeling about you. In politics as in love, indifference is the kiss of death.
"Our national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows that a plurality of Canadians with an opinion want Prime Minister Paul Martin to be more transparent/accountable/honest (15.5%). When Canadians were asked what they would change about Stephen Harper, the
number one formed opinion was that everything should be changed (8.7%).
'Polling indicates that there is still some residual image drag resulting from the advertising scandal for Prime Minister Paul Martin.'
'Compared to Paul Martin, not as many Canadians have formed opinions of what they would change about Stephen Harper. One of two (51%) Canadians could not form an opinion of changes to Harper compared to 38% for Paul Martin.'
Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, Margin of Error = ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Paul Martin (N=1,000, MoE - ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).
If there were one thing that you could change, if anything, about Prime Minister Paul Martin, what would it be? [Unprompted]
Be more transparent/accountable/honest - 15.5%
Be more aggressive/decisive/get a backbone - 7.8%
Change policy positions - 7.3%
Change everything/new leader - 5.1%
Be more down to earth/listen to Canadians - 4.7%
Change his attitude/be less arrogant - 3.0%
Too close to Bush/stand up to Americans - 2.4%
Too close to big business/CSL loopholes - 2.3%
Change nothing - 2.1%
Other (Answers with less than 2%) - 11.4%
Unsure - 11.5%
No Answer - 26.9%
Stephen Harper (N=1,000, MoE - ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).
If there were one thing that you could change, if anything, about Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, what would it be? [Unprompted]
Change everything/new leader - 8.7%
Be more open-minded - 5.8%
Have more personality/better image - 5.3%
Change policy positions - 4.7%
Be less conservative/religious - 4.0%
Be more honest/have more integrity - 2.3%
Change his attitude/be less arrogant - 2.0%
Be more charismatic/inspire Canadians - 2.0%
Other (Answers with less than 2%) - 14.4%
Unsure - 18.4%
No Answer - 32.4%
Given the results of other opinion polls which show Prime Minister Paul Martin with a significant lead over Opposition Leader Stephen Harper, take note of the SES results showing that about half of respondents couldn't name something they'd like to change about Harper. That doesn't mean they like him as he is; it means they couldn't settle on what they would change about him. At the very least it means they haven't really thought about Harper enough to form a strong opinion.
In politics, when you are loved or hated at least the voters have a feeling about you. In politics as in love, indifference is the kiss of death.
"Our national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows that a plurality of Canadians with an opinion want Prime Minister Paul Martin to be more transparent/accountable/honest (15.5%). When Canadians were asked what they would change about Stephen Harper, the
number one formed opinion was that everything should be changed (8.7%).
'Polling indicates that there is still some residual image drag resulting from the advertising scandal for Prime Minister Paul Martin.'
'Compared to Paul Martin, not as many Canadians have formed opinions of what they would change about Stephen Harper. One of two (51%) Canadians could not form an opinion of changes to Harper compared to 38% for Paul Martin.'
Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, Margin of Error = ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Paul Martin (N=1,000, MoE - ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).
If there were one thing that you could change, if anything, about Prime Minister Paul Martin, what would it be? [Unprompted]
Be more transparent/accountable/honest - 15.5%
Be more aggressive/decisive/get a backbone - 7.8%
Change policy positions - 7.3%
Change everything/new leader - 5.1%
Be more down to earth/listen to Canadians - 4.7%
Change his attitude/be less arrogant - 3.0%
Too close to Bush/stand up to Americans - 2.4%
Too close to big business/CSL loopholes - 2.3%
Change nothing - 2.1%
Other (Answers with less than 2%) - 11.4%
Unsure - 11.5%
No Answer - 26.9%
Stephen Harper (N=1,000, MoE - ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).
If there were one thing that you could change, if anything, about Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, what would it be? [Unprompted]
Change everything/new leader - 8.7%
Be more open-minded - 5.8%
Have more personality/better image - 5.3%
Change policy positions - 4.7%
Be less conservative/religious - 4.0%
Be more honest/have more integrity - 2.3%
Change his attitude/be less arrogant - 2.0%
Be more charismatic/inspire Canadians - 2.0%
Other (Answers with less than 2%) - 14.4%
Unsure - 18.4%
No Answer - 32.4%
23 August 2005
Vote-by-mail fraud risk in St. John's municipal contest
St. John's city council recently endorsed an all-mail ballot system for the upcoming municipal election.
The system is supposed to increase participation rates and is reputedly popular with voters. City officials claim that in a survey they conducted over 91% of respondents were satisfied with the process. A case study completed by Canada Post praises the system for increasing voter response at a lower cost than traditional elections.
Here's the quirky thing no one seems to have noticed.
In a conventional election, a voter must present himself or herself at a polling station, obtain a ballot and cast a vote in secret. Should someone attempt to vote in place of the registered voter, simply producing identification can demonstrate a fraud has occurred. That alone is sufficient to deter that type of criminal activity voting.
If a voter is likely to be absent on the usual polling day, there are several processes available, all of which preserve the integrity of the ballot's chain of custody and maintain its secrecy.
Some other jurisdictions across North America have moved to mail-in ballots or the so-called vote-by-mail system. Oregon ran the entire 2004 federal general election by vote-by-mail.
In that state, officials verified the votes cast by comparing a specimen signature of the registered voter to the signature included with the ballot envelope.
St. John's has no such system of specimen signatures. Nor do they have an alternative means of assuring that the vote received from a registered voter was actually cast by that person or a duly authorized proxy.
Therefore, there is no way of knowing that a ballot from any voter was actually cast by that voter.
The system assumes the ballot is valid and therefore the system is open to a variety of frauds.
The next council should review the entire process of municipal elections.
The system is supposed to increase participation rates and is reputedly popular with voters. City officials claim that in a survey they conducted over 91% of respondents were satisfied with the process. A case study completed by Canada Post praises the system for increasing voter response at a lower cost than traditional elections.
Here's the quirky thing no one seems to have noticed.
In a conventional election, a voter must present himself or herself at a polling station, obtain a ballot and cast a vote in secret. Should someone attempt to vote in place of the registered voter, simply producing identification can demonstrate a fraud has occurred. That alone is sufficient to deter that type of criminal activity voting.
If a voter is likely to be absent on the usual polling day, there are several processes available, all of which preserve the integrity of the ballot's chain of custody and maintain its secrecy.
Some other jurisdictions across North America have moved to mail-in ballots or the so-called vote-by-mail system. Oregon ran the entire 2004 federal general election by vote-by-mail.
In that state, officials verified the votes cast by comparing a specimen signature of the registered voter to the signature included with the ballot envelope.
St. John's has no such system of specimen signatures. Nor do they have an alternative means of assuring that the vote received from a registered voter was actually cast by that person or a duly authorized proxy.
Therefore, there is no way of knowing that a ballot from any voter was actually cast by that voter.
The system assumes the ballot is valid and therefore the system is open to a variety of frauds.
The next council should review the entire process of municipal elections.
22 August 2005
End the gas pricing charade!
George Murphy is a St. John's taxi driver. He calls the radio call-in shows regularly to give his update and analysis of gas price trends.
He's usually spot on.
He does it for free.
Meanwhile in Grand Falls-Windsor, there is a small office with a staff of about half-a-dozen doing the same job Murphy does.
That's right. They merely analyse gas and home-heating prices and then approve the increases.
They don't lower prices. They don't affect prices at all.
All David Toms and his crowd do is tell us that prices are going up.
Their salaries come from the gas retailers, by law.
Gasoline prices jumped by almost nine cents in St. John's today, a full week after they jumped everywhere else. When gas prices drop everywhere else, we will still be paying higher than-necessary prices. That's to make up for the delay in jacking the prices up. In this VOCM story, Commissar Toms says he thinks gasoline is overpriced. It isn't, Dave, ole man. But it will be when you leave it high after prices everywhere else have dropped.
Checking the provincial government's website this morning at around 8:30, I couldn't find a news release from Toms' outfit. He was ducking media calls on Friday, calls that were prompted by George Murphy's predictions. When the release does go up, I'll post link so you can see the pricing trend (slow increases, slow decreases) that the petroleum price-fixing charade office actually includes in its own releases.
What it boils down to is this:
1. The provincial petroleum office provides no service of value that cannot be obtained more competently and in a much more timely way by someone in the private sector. We'd be better off closing down the GFW charade, passing the hat and giving George Murphy a new computer.
2. There is absolutely no evidence that prices here are lower than they would be without the "regulation" charade. Doc O'Keefe, the guy who built his public name on this gas price crap, claims gas would be higher if it wasn't for the gas price crowd.
I say crap and challenge Doc to prove his claim.
The fact is Doc can't prove his claim.
Doc can't do a lot of other things, as his term on council already shows; but that's another post as O'Keefe appears poised to take on the deputy mayor's job by acclamation.
He's usually spot on.
He does it for free.
Meanwhile in Grand Falls-Windsor, there is a small office with a staff of about half-a-dozen doing the same job Murphy does.
That's right. They merely analyse gas and home-heating prices and then approve the increases.
They don't lower prices. They don't affect prices at all.
All David Toms and his crowd do is tell us that prices are going up.
Their salaries come from the gas retailers, by law.
Gasoline prices jumped by almost nine cents in St. John's today, a full week after they jumped everywhere else. When gas prices drop everywhere else, we will still be paying higher than-necessary prices. That's to make up for the delay in jacking the prices up. In this VOCM story, Commissar Toms says he thinks gasoline is overpriced. It isn't, Dave, ole man. But it will be when you leave it high after prices everywhere else have dropped.
Checking the provincial government's website this morning at around 8:30, I couldn't find a news release from Toms' outfit. He was ducking media calls on Friday, calls that were prompted by George Murphy's predictions. When the release does go up, I'll post link so you can see the pricing trend (slow increases, slow decreases) that the petroleum price-fixing charade office actually includes in its own releases.
What it boils down to is this:
1. The provincial petroleum office provides no service of value that cannot be obtained more competently and in a much more timely way by someone in the private sector. We'd be better off closing down the GFW charade, passing the hat and giving George Murphy a new computer.
2. There is absolutely no evidence that prices here are lower than they would be without the "regulation" charade. Doc O'Keefe, the guy who built his public name on this gas price crap, claims gas would be higher if it wasn't for the gas price crowd.
I say crap and challenge Doc to prove his claim.
The fact is Doc can't prove his claim.
Doc can't do a lot of other things, as his term on council already shows; but that's another post as O'Keefe appears poised to take on the deputy mayor's job by acclamation.
Baker digs hole deeper - for herself
There were those who thought St. John's lawyer Averrill Baker would this week deal with accusations her columns on fisheries management have been short of facts.
They were disappointed if they thought she might actually develop an argument, based on accurate information, that went beyond trafficking in the preconceptions of the people who read her columns and then hold them up as proof that their views were correct all along.
This sort of intellectual incest may be satisfying to some, but in the court of public opinion, as in the court of law, the convincing argument is the one which is founded on fact and the law. Baker may be winning her case in the open line jury trial, but each week, her columns are assessed by the appeals division on a totally different basis. It is there where she is losing.
In the end, all Baker did this week is take some advice from her father and continue to flail away at the federal fisheries department with more innuendo.
The best defence is a good offense, supposedly.
The problem with that old saw is that when it comes to this sort of stuff, the effectiveness of the offense depends very much on the credibility of the attacker. Baker can persuade those who know very little of the facts, but anyone taking a deeper look finds her argument increasingly unpersuasive.
The fact is that Baker junior's credibility has taken a few serious hits in recent weeks through her columns.
Her latest column adds to the damage.
At the end of it, Baker writes:
"Any lawyer who has taken international law in the past 15 years will tell you that any coastal state signatory to the Law of the Sea can apply to the UN under article 76 to extend jurisdiction over the ocean floor out to 350 miles and prevent all dragging of the soil and subsoil on the ocean floor.
"Russia did it in the year 2000 and twenty other countries - most of them NAFO members - have applied to the United Nations to do so. Some are doing so to stop, and in other cases to regulate, the foreign fleets dragging the ocean floor outside 200 miles.
"Instead of advocating the same for Canada, the three major political parties have all bought into a concept unknown to law called "Custodial Management". They advocate that foreign nations be allowed to continue dragging the bottom as long as they abide by fishing quotas. Perhaps 30 years ago it would have made some sense, but under international law today it amounts to a cop-out.
"The federal Minister of Fisheries and Oceans recently claimed publicly - – I am told in response to my last column - that these 16 foreign nations are not really catching very much fish.
"If 60 large foreign factory freezer trawlers (some are 350 feet long) are not catching fish, then what in heavens name are they doing out there dragging the bottom of the ocean back and forth on our continental shelf? Did they lose something overboard?
"Are they operating gambling casinos at sea? Are they a part of an oceanic cruise line? Are the Russians dragging for Red October? Or would the Minister of Fisheries have us believe they all have a contract from Walt Disney to try to find Nemo?"
Let's take a look at some of this stuff, since it forms the core of Baker's latest attack on the fisheries department.
1. Under Section 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, a signatory can lay claim to sub-seabed minerals where the continental shelf extends beyond the 200 nautical mile xclusive economic zone.
Here's a link to UNCLOS; go check it out for yourself.
At no point, does this section give a coastal state claiming such rights to the sub-seabed any right to interfere with activities related to the water-column. That's fishing, ladies and gentlemen, and as much as Ms. Baker can rail about the effect of dragging on the seabed, the treaty separates the seabed mineral resources from the wildlife in the watercolumn and on the seabed.
It doesn't take a single course at law school to read plain English and present it clearly and accurately. Nor does one have to agree with the UNCLOS; Canada's actions can only take place within the scope and context of international law.
Baker's contention is, to put it bluntly, WRONG, yet again when she suggests that Canada could lay claim to the whole continental shelf beyond 200 miles and thereby end foreign fishing.
Oh yes and while countries have applied, as Baker points out, she doesn't tell us if any country has actually been granted rights beyond 200 miles for managing fisheries.
2. B aker would never tell you this but here it ibecauseue it is accurate: Canada is already building the case for extending its claim to the sub-seabed minerals on the continental shelf beyond 200 miles. The feds have up to eight years after ratifying the treaty to make the claim, which means they have until 2011 to complete it.
3. Canada couldn't lay legal claim to the shelf beyond 200 miles before 2003 because Canada didn'ratifyfy the treaty until then. Notice how the facts of the matter here differ widely from the interpretation Baker applies. The position taken by the federal government isn't a cop-out, as Baker claims; it reflects the reality of the international legal regime governing the fisheries.
4. The last bit of Baker's column - the bit about casinos and Finding Nemo - is curious if for no other reason than it sounds an awful lot like the kind of sarcasm usually voiced by her father; I note this because in the past few weeks I have heard one too many people speculating that Senator Dad has been ghost-writing the columns for his daughter. To my mind that doesn't really matter since Senator Baker or lawyer Baker can be equally wrong, as a matter of facts.
This last section of the column is curious because it takes a potshot at the federal minister without - at any point - providing a single shred of factual information to back up either the claims made in this column or the claims made in previous columns by Les Bakers audaces.
What a reasonable reader is left with is merely more of the entertaining writing of a St. John's lawyer.
Entertaining, yes but ultimately unconvincing.
It ignores fact.
It ignores the law.
It presents instead a series of unsubstantiated claims and innuendo.
No matter how many times Baker repeats her arguments, they do not gain accuracy or credibility with the repetition.
Except among people who were already convinced of what Baker claims.
The problem for Baker is that those people are already in the minority, something that isn't likely to change.
The other problem for Baker is that the more she makes outrageous claims lacking in any substance, the more she generates a backlash against her argument.
They were disappointed if they thought she might actually develop an argument, based on accurate information, that went beyond trafficking in the preconceptions of the people who read her columns and then hold them up as proof that their views were correct all along.
This sort of intellectual incest may be satisfying to some, but in the court of public opinion, as in the court of law, the convincing argument is the one which is founded on fact and the law. Baker may be winning her case in the open line jury trial, but each week, her columns are assessed by the appeals division on a totally different basis. It is there where she is losing.
In the end, all Baker did this week is take some advice from her father and continue to flail away at the federal fisheries department with more innuendo.
The best defence is a good offense, supposedly.
The problem with that old saw is that when it comes to this sort of stuff, the effectiveness of the offense depends very much on the credibility of the attacker. Baker can persuade those who know very little of the facts, but anyone taking a deeper look finds her argument increasingly unpersuasive.
The fact is that Baker junior's credibility has taken a few serious hits in recent weeks through her columns.
Her latest column adds to the damage.
At the end of it, Baker writes:
"Any lawyer who has taken international law in the past 15 years will tell you that any coastal state signatory to the Law of the Sea can apply to the UN under article 76 to extend jurisdiction over the ocean floor out to 350 miles and prevent all dragging of the soil and subsoil on the ocean floor.
"Russia did it in the year 2000 and twenty other countries - most of them NAFO members - have applied to the United Nations to do so. Some are doing so to stop, and in other cases to regulate, the foreign fleets dragging the ocean floor outside 200 miles.
"Instead of advocating the same for Canada, the three major political parties have all bought into a concept unknown to law called "Custodial Management". They advocate that foreign nations be allowed to continue dragging the bottom as long as they abide by fishing quotas. Perhaps 30 years ago it would have made some sense, but under international law today it amounts to a cop-out.
"The federal Minister of Fisheries and Oceans recently claimed publicly - – I am told in response to my last column - that these 16 foreign nations are not really catching very much fish.
"If 60 large foreign factory freezer trawlers (some are 350 feet long) are not catching fish, then what in heavens name are they doing out there dragging the bottom of the ocean back and forth on our continental shelf? Did they lose something overboard?
"Are they operating gambling casinos at sea? Are they a part of an oceanic cruise line? Are the Russians dragging for Red October? Or would the Minister of Fisheries have us believe they all have a contract from Walt Disney to try to find Nemo?"
Let's take a look at some of this stuff, since it forms the core of Baker's latest attack on the fisheries department.
1. Under Section 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, a signatory can lay claim to sub-seabed minerals where the continental shelf extends beyond the 200 nautical mile xclusive economic zone.
Here's a link to UNCLOS; go check it out for yourself.
At no point, does this section give a coastal state claiming such rights to the sub-seabed any right to interfere with activities related to the water-column. That's fishing, ladies and gentlemen, and as much as Ms. Baker can rail about the effect of dragging on the seabed, the treaty separates the seabed mineral resources from the wildlife in the watercolumn and on the seabed.
It doesn't take a single course at law school to read plain English and present it clearly and accurately. Nor does one have to agree with the UNCLOS; Canada's actions can only take place within the scope and context of international law.
Baker's contention is, to put it bluntly, WRONG, yet again when she suggests that Canada could lay claim to the whole continental shelf beyond 200 miles and thereby end foreign fishing.
Oh yes and while countries have applied, as Baker points out, she doesn't tell us if any country has actually been granted rights beyond 200 miles for managing fisheries.
2. B aker would never tell you this but here it ibecauseue it is accurate: Canada is already building the case for extending its claim to the sub-seabed minerals on the continental shelf beyond 200 miles. The feds have up to eight years after ratifying the treaty to make the claim, which means they have until 2011 to complete it.
3. Canada couldn't lay legal claim to the shelf beyond 200 miles before 2003 because Canada didn'ratifyfy the treaty until then. Notice how the facts of the matter here differ widely from the interpretation Baker applies. The position taken by the federal government isn't a cop-out, as Baker claims; it reflects the reality of the international legal regime governing the fisheries.
4. The last bit of Baker's column - the bit about casinos and Finding Nemo - is curious if for no other reason than it sounds an awful lot like the kind of sarcasm usually voiced by her father; I note this because in the past few weeks I have heard one too many people speculating that Senator Dad has been ghost-writing the columns for his daughter. To my mind that doesn't really matter since Senator Baker or lawyer Baker can be equally wrong, as a matter of facts.
This last section of the column is curious because it takes a potshot at the federal minister without - at any point - providing a single shred of factual information to back up either the claims made in this column or the claims made in previous columns by Les Bakers audaces.
What a reasonable reader is left with is merely more of the entertaining writing of a St. John's lawyer.
Entertaining, yes but ultimately unconvincing.
It ignores fact.
It ignores the law.
It presents instead a series of unsubstantiated claims and innuendo.
No matter how many times Baker repeats her arguments, they do not gain accuracy or credibility with the repetition.
Except among people who were already convinced of what Baker claims.
The problem for Baker is that those people are already in the minority, something that isn't likely to change.
The other problem for Baker is that the more she makes outrageous claims lacking in any substance, the more she generates a backlash against her argument.
19 August 2005
Expensive hospitality for Efford - or was it comms advice? [Updated]
[Update: While the folks at federal natural resources didn't spend very much time on the Bond papers when it might have helped, they suddenly are spending a whole bunch of time checking the site out. That is since I posted about the more than $80,000 paid to a St. John's communications company for something it did related to the offshore talks.
Seems the busy little gnomes at NRCAN changed the category under which they paid almost $60, 000 recently to First Contact. It went from being charged out to "hospitality" to the NRCAN category for professionals services not otherwise contracted. When you click the link below, note that the numbers for the two categories are not even vaguely close. Someone made a conscious decision to reclassify the expenditure but only after the Bond Papers pointed to the questionable contract.
Of course, that change in accounting practices doesn't explain why a company got paid to organize federal supporters to attend the February 14 ceremony when legions of Liberals volunteered their time [not a penny in pay] to do exactly the same thing.
Anyway, read on and enjoy]
Thanks to the federal proactive disclosure policy, the Bond Papers can now report that St. John's-based First Contact Communications received $58, 287.70 for work completed between October 29, 2004 and February 18, 2005, apparently related to the offshore discussions between the Government of Canada and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.
The contract was let on June 21, 2005 as reported here on the NRCAN website.
This is in addition to $22, 500 paid to the same company for work done between late January and late February 2005, also related to the offshore deal. Check here and scroll to the post "Federal Accord communications support costs" to see the previous Bond Papers post.
Note the curious things about these two contracts:
1. The earlier payment was made by the federal finance department under expenditure category 422 (professional services otherwise not contracted). Here's the link to that department's proactive disclosure report on the contract.
2. The new payment is by John Efford's own natural resources department. The contract date is in June 2005 but it covers work done in the last fiscal year which ended 31 Mar 2005.
3. The new amount is listed as having come from expenditure category 0822 (Hospitality).
4. The two payments overlap in time between January and February 2005. There is no information on the proactive disclosure website that the two contracts are related nor is there any indication in the disclosure report as to what the contracted work actually was.
First Contact was doing work for the feds on the offshore deal that included organizing people to attend the signing ceremony In February 2005.
There were also a raft of federal Liberal volunteers involved doing the same thing although they certainly didn't work for First Contact. They never received a penny for their efforts.
The total amount of the two contracts is $80, 787.70.
While I haven't contacted either federal department or First Contact on this, the time periods involved correspond to work the company was doing for Efford on the offshore talks.
All that makes some sense.
It just seems odd that a communications company would be paid for hospitality services, by a contract let four months after the work was completed.
Seems the busy little gnomes at NRCAN changed the category under which they paid almost $60, 000 recently to First Contact. It went from being charged out to "hospitality" to the NRCAN category for professionals services not otherwise contracted. When you click the link below, note that the numbers for the two categories are not even vaguely close. Someone made a conscious decision to reclassify the expenditure but only after the Bond Papers pointed to the questionable contract.
Of course, that change in accounting practices doesn't explain why a company got paid to organize federal supporters to attend the February 14 ceremony when legions of Liberals volunteered their time [not a penny in pay] to do exactly the same thing.
Anyway, read on and enjoy]
Thanks to the federal proactive disclosure policy, the Bond Papers can now report that St. John's-based First Contact Communications received $58, 287.70 for work completed between October 29, 2004 and February 18, 2005, apparently related to the offshore discussions between the Government of Canada and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.
The contract was let on June 21, 2005 as reported here on the NRCAN website.
This is in addition to $22, 500 paid to the same company for work done between late January and late February 2005, also related to the offshore deal. Check here and scroll to the post "Federal Accord communications support costs" to see the previous Bond Papers post.
Note the curious things about these two contracts:
1. The earlier payment was made by the federal finance department under expenditure category 422 (professional services otherwise not contracted). Here's the link to that department's proactive disclosure report on the contract.
2. The new payment is by John Efford's own natural resources department. The contract date is in June 2005 but it covers work done in the last fiscal year which ended 31 Mar 2005.
3. The new amount is listed as having come from expenditure category 0822 (Hospitality).
4. The two payments overlap in time between January and February 2005. There is no information on the proactive disclosure website that the two contracts are related nor is there any indication in the disclosure report as to what the contracted work actually was.
First Contact was doing work for the feds on the offshore deal that included organizing people to attend the signing ceremony In February 2005.
There were also a raft of federal Liberal volunteers involved doing the same thing although they certainly didn't work for First Contact. They never received a penny for their efforts.
The total amount of the two contracts is $80, 787.70.
While I haven't contacted either federal department or First Contact on this, the time periods involved correspond to work the company was doing for Efford on the offshore talks.
All that makes some sense.
It just seems odd that a communications company would be paid for hospitality services, by a contract let four months after the work was completed.
18 August 2005
A truly Canadian policy on gas prices
Surely this is the End Time.
Federal Conservative leader Stephen Harper, some provincial premiers and, in Newfoundland and Labrador, Ersatz Opposition Leader Gerry Reid are all calling for the same thing:
lower taxes on gasoline.
If the Book of Revelation missed this alignment of political forces maybe there is a Nostradamus quatrain that foretells the time when a bunch of guys all come up with the same unsound policy suggestion at the same time all to do nothing but gain a few points in a public opinion poll.
The only - and I emphasize only - reason anyone is suggesting lowering taxes on gasoline is in response to public outcries about recent price increases. It is as shallow a political motive as we have seen in this country for advancing an idea since a handful of people convinced Allan Rock that if I have a gun in my house my wife was infinitely more likely to get shot if we had a minor disagreement. If that wasn't convincing enough, they told us that we could use a gun registry to fight gang violence in Toronto. Neither Rock nor any of the Illogical Brigade can be seen these days in the Jane/Finch corridor explaining why their claims haven't proven correct.
Just because people cry out for something doesn't mean it is a good idea.
Sometimes people manage to convince politicians of ideas that lack merit. Here we have a case where politicians themselves are coming up bonehead notions.
Apparently, not one of these politicians notices that the price increases are a direct result of international concerns about oil supplies that will likely drop as concerns are allayed. No one notices that high prices for gasoline may actually lead consumers to make smart choices about their consumption for a change. That would be good for the environment, among other things.
No one seems to notice that the millions of dollars the federal government will transfer to the nation's cities come from gasoline taxes.
In the world of public policy there are only a handful of good reasons to drop a tax or eliminate it.
- Cut it or eliminate if the tax is hindering business growth.
- Cut a tax or eliminate it if doing so would stimulate a flagging economy.
- Cut a tax or eliminate a tax that is harming the poor and those on fixed incomes.
Since neither of the first two apply in this case, politicians tell us that cutting the cost of gasoline and home heating fuels will help seniors and others on limited incomes.
But will it?
Of course not.
Nor will cutting gasoline taxes reduce the overall cost of living, thereby helping the poor.
The only people deriving a benefit from lower gas prices would be those powering their SUVs. Odds are Grandma doesn't drive an SUV . If she does, she damn well isn't trying to live on Old Age Security (OAS) and therefore doesn't need public assistance.
If any government wanted to help the poor and those on fixed incomes, it should simply implement a new basic living allowance that would transfer cash directly into their hands, just as with OAS. Every province could fund such a program out of the gasoline taxes from the gas-suckers in the SUVs.
Give some federal assistance and a few minutes of brain power and we might just revamp the social assistance and old age security system in the country to an affordable means of providing guaranteed minimum incomes. Such an idea was proposed by the Wells administration in Newfoundland in 1992 and soundly rejected by the Chretien government. Wells' idea was a typically Canadian solution of helping those in need; in these days of swelling federal coffers, it might be time to have another look at the idea.
In place of such bold thinking, we have the most bland of political cries, the kind of stuff dreamed up by the marketers and pitchmen who inhabit some political offices these days: it polled well, therefore it must be good.
When a Liberal like Gerry Reid or any New Democrat finds himself in agreement with Stephen Harper, that should be a clue he is on the wrong track.
That no one else in the country is talking about such an eminently simple, feasible and worthwhile an idea suggests we could all use a kick in our wallets, our backsides or wherever else we keep our brains and compassion these days.
Federal Conservative leader Stephen Harper, some provincial premiers and, in Newfoundland and Labrador, Ersatz Opposition Leader Gerry Reid are all calling for the same thing:
lower taxes on gasoline.
If the Book of Revelation missed this alignment of political forces maybe there is a Nostradamus quatrain that foretells the time when a bunch of guys all come up with the same unsound policy suggestion at the same time all to do nothing but gain a few points in a public opinion poll.
The only - and I emphasize only - reason anyone is suggesting lowering taxes on gasoline is in response to public outcries about recent price increases. It is as shallow a political motive as we have seen in this country for advancing an idea since a handful of people convinced Allan Rock that if I have a gun in my house my wife was infinitely more likely to get shot if we had a minor disagreement. If that wasn't convincing enough, they told us that we could use a gun registry to fight gang violence in Toronto. Neither Rock nor any of the Illogical Brigade can be seen these days in the Jane/Finch corridor explaining why their claims haven't proven correct.
Just because people cry out for something doesn't mean it is a good idea.
Sometimes people manage to convince politicians of ideas that lack merit. Here we have a case where politicians themselves are coming up bonehead notions.
Apparently, not one of these politicians notices that the price increases are a direct result of international concerns about oil supplies that will likely drop as concerns are allayed. No one notices that high prices for gasoline may actually lead consumers to make smart choices about their consumption for a change. That would be good for the environment, among other things.
No one seems to notice that the millions of dollars the federal government will transfer to the nation's cities come from gasoline taxes.
In the world of public policy there are only a handful of good reasons to drop a tax or eliminate it.
- Cut it or eliminate if the tax is hindering business growth.
- Cut a tax or eliminate it if doing so would stimulate a flagging economy.
- Cut a tax or eliminate a tax that is harming the poor and those on fixed incomes.
Since neither of the first two apply in this case, politicians tell us that cutting the cost of gasoline and home heating fuels will help seniors and others on limited incomes.
But will it?
Of course not.
Nor will cutting gasoline taxes reduce the overall cost of living, thereby helping the poor.
The only people deriving a benefit from lower gas prices would be those powering their SUVs. Odds are Grandma doesn't drive an SUV . If she does, she damn well isn't trying to live on Old Age Security (OAS) and therefore doesn't need public assistance.
If any government wanted to help the poor and those on fixed incomes, it should simply implement a new basic living allowance that would transfer cash directly into their hands, just as with OAS. Every province could fund such a program out of the gasoline taxes from the gas-suckers in the SUVs.
Give some federal assistance and a few minutes of brain power and we might just revamp the social assistance and old age security system in the country to an affordable means of providing guaranteed minimum incomes. Such an idea was proposed by the Wells administration in Newfoundland in 1992 and soundly rejected by the Chretien government. Wells' idea was a typically Canadian solution of helping those in need; in these days of swelling federal coffers, it might be time to have another look at the idea.
In place of such bold thinking, we have the most bland of political cries, the kind of stuff dreamed up by the marketers and pitchmen who inhabit some political offices these days: it polled well, therefore it must be good.
When a Liberal like Gerry Reid or any New Democrat finds himself in agreement with Stephen Harper, that should be a clue he is on the wrong track.
That no one else in the country is talking about such an eminently simple, feasible and worthwhile an idea suggests we could all use a kick in our wallets, our backsides or wherever else we keep our brains and compassion these days.
17 August 2005
Lono at Large!
Simon Lono is declaring his candidacy for St. John's city council today at noon on the steps of city hall.
As shop-worn as that might be elsewhere, around here it is a novelty. Most candidates announce by sending out a news release and calling open line.
This one is going to be a campaign and will quickly establish Lono as the candidate to unseat an incumbent. That's almost unheard of in St. John's city politics - councillors usually have life appointments - and that's one of things Lono is out to change.
Smart, experienced, young and he's got some concrete ideas.
Here's his website: check it out.
And when the ballot hits your mailbox, send it back with the X next to Lono, Simon.
As shop-worn as that might be elsewhere, around here it is a novelty. Most candidates announce by sending out a news release and calling open line.
This one is going to be a campaign and will quickly establish Lono as the candidate to unseat an incumbent. That's almost unheard of in St. John's city politics - councillors usually have life appointments - and that's one of things Lono is out to change.
Smart, experienced, young and he's got some concrete ideas.
Here's his website: check it out.
And when the ballot hits your mailbox, send it back with the X next to Lono, Simon.
16 August 2005
Libs up, Connies down: SES
Here's the text of a news release from SES Research, the same guys who provided the highly accurate polling for CPAC during the last federal election.
"The big Liberal gains were in Quebec where they increased their support from 21% to 34% while the Conservatives have dropped from 11% to 4%."
"Polling clearly shows that Stephen Harper's image is in a free fall. In the past 90 days the percentage of Canadians who believe he would make the best Prime Minister has dropped from 27% to 14%. Jack Layton has mathematically placed second, the first time in SES Best PM tracking."
"The other dramatic move has been the number of Canadians who chose "none of the above" as their best PM. This has more than doubled from 8% to 19%. This is truly our summer of discontent. Paul Martin still rates as the first choice of Canadians at 31%, 16 points ahead of his nearest rival."
Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, (MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Canada - Ballot (Change from Previous Quarter, N= 865 Decided voters, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
LIB - 39% (+3)
CP - 25% (-5)
NDP -19% (+1)
BQ - 13% (+1)
GP - 5% (+1)
*14% were undecided (+2)
Best PM (Change from Previous Quarter, N=1,000)
Martin - 31% (-1)
Layton - 15% (0)
Harper - 14% (-13)
Duceppe - 8% (+2)
None - 19% (+11)
Undecided - 13% (+4)
Government Performance (Change from Previous Quarter, N=1,000)
Very good - 6% (0)
Somewhat good - 21% (+4)
Average - 39% (+8)
Somewhat poor - 17% (-1)
Very poor - 16% (-9)
Unsure - 2% (-1)
"The big Liberal gains were in Quebec where they increased their support from 21% to 34% while the Conservatives have dropped from 11% to 4%."
"Polling clearly shows that Stephen Harper's image is in a free fall. In the past 90 days the percentage of Canadians who believe he would make the best Prime Minister has dropped from 27% to 14%. Jack Layton has mathematically placed second, the first time in SES Best PM tracking."
"The other dramatic move has been the number of Canadians who chose "none of the above" as their best PM. This has more than doubled from 8% to 19%. This is truly our summer of discontent. Paul Martin still rates as the first choice of Canadians at 31%, 16 points ahead of his nearest rival."
Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, (MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Canada - Ballot (Change from Previous Quarter, N= 865 Decided voters, MoE ± 3.4%, 19 times out of 20)
LIB - 39% (+3)
CP - 25% (-5)
NDP -19% (+1)
BQ - 13% (+1)
GP - 5% (+1)
*14% were undecided (+2)
Best PM (Change from Previous Quarter, N=1,000)
Martin - 31% (-1)
Layton - 15% (0)
Harper - 14% (-13)
Duceppe - 8% (+2)
None - 19% (+11)
Undecided - 13% (+4)
Government Performance (Change from Previous Quarter, N=1,000)
Very good - 6% (0)
Somewhat good - 21% (+4)
Average - 39% (+8)
Somewhat poor - 17% (-1)
Very poor - 16% (-9)
Unsure - 2% (-1)
A good public relations case study
For those who like to take lessons from other people's cock ups, there's a great story in the Monday Globe on how CN handled the train derailment in ALberta.
Find the story here.
Find the story here.
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