Reasons for not having a spring election..Part I-lost-count

Yet another poll showing the federal Conservatives stuck below 40%.

The Liberals are at 31% and in Quebec the two parties are in a dead heat, behind the Bloc Quebecois.

Pressue mounts to dump Reynolds as electoral officer

Pressure continues to mount on Premier Danny Williams to shelve the appointment of a former president of Williams' party as the province's chief electoral officer.

Williams is defending the decision, and as this Telegram editorial notes, in the process misses the point that the CEO should not be a partisan in the first place.

Joke em if they can't...the sequel

Premier Danny Williams repeatedly called the Prime Minister "Steve" Harper in a scrum today.

Williams wanted to show disdain for the Prime Minister comparable to the disdain Williams contends the Prime Minister displayed toward the province recently.

Such is the state of federal-provincial relations in the country.

Reportedly senior officials in the province's intergovernmental affairs secretariat are working on other options to deal with the federal government, including:

- stringing toilet paper in the trees at 24 Sussex;

- "egging" the Prime Minister's limousine;

- making it mandatory for all provincial officials to blow "raspberries" whenever anyone mentions the federal government at intergovernmental meetings;

- randomly calling the Prime Minister's office and asking if the PM's refrigerator is running;

- leaving messages for federal officials all over Canada that Mike Hunt from Newfoundland called. The automated answering system will put the caller into an endless loop of "if you are calling so-and-so press 2" options;

- ordering pizzas at all hours of the day and night having then sent to the Langevin Block;

- sneaking fart cushions into the Commons and randomly planting them on cabinet ministers' seats;

- having someone slip a dead skunk into the air conditioning system at Harrington Lake;

- when meeting their federal counterparts, provincial cabinet ministers are to do the fake-handshake-smooth-the-hair-instead-thing;

- putting plastic wrap across the toilet seats in the House of Commons washrooms;

- try to embarrass the PM by calling Frank magazine with a hot tip that the Prime Minister has a stylist on the office payroll;

- tell Loyola Hearn he can pull Danny's finger anytime but Danny is sooooooo pissed off Loyola won't even get a fart; and,

- Answer any future questions about the PM with: "Who? Never heard of him. He doesn't exist. So there. Neeener. Neener. Neener."

-30-

Postscript:

Sadly, the first bit of this post was true: Danny is resorting to calling the Prime Minister Steve.

The rest?

Well, hopefully it's just a little Friday evening levity.

Sad part of it is that, with these guys, ya just never know when the province's representative in Ottawa will be sent to the House of Commons gallery with orders to sit and stare at the Prime Minister until he gives in.

Things are almost that silly.

But is the Premier going?

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale is off to the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston next week.

But there's no mention the Premier is going, as he has done in the past.

According to some industry sources, the Premier is going down for a conference pre-show but has to flip to Toronto for a Council of Federation meeting in Toronto.

So how come there's no public mention of it?

Bravo SWGC

Sir Wilfed Grenfell College is becoming a degree-granting university separate from Memorial University but sharing a common board of regents with the long-established St. John's institution.

That's one of the numerous high points in government's 2007 budget.

But for those of us with memories, there's a certain irony in the whole development.

In 1989, the Liberals under Clyde Wells proposed creating several universities in the province.

If memory serves, some - including the Progressive Conservatives under then-Premier Tom Rideout pooh poohed the idea.

Steps taken in the years since 1989 have helped to make this announcement a reality. All it shows is that sometimes, with a little vision and lots of perseverance, things can happen.

-30-

Correction

An e-mail correspondent pointed out a glaring error on the part of your humble e-scribbler.

A post on one possible source of the government's recent nationalist rhetoric contained the comment: "His interpretation has been criticised by other historians, but it did serve as the inspiration for the entertaining but fictional movie Secret nation."

However, that proposition doesn't hold up since the movie was completed before the master's thesis referred to in the post.

The movie was released in 1992 and the masters degree awarded in 1992, according to this news release, but at most the two projects were in production at the same time and with no apparent crossover. The e-mail contained information that made this clear.

So there it is.

Secret Nation was not inspired by John Fitzgerald's MA thesis.

If it wasn't clear from the above comment, then let's make it clear now: the movie was a work of fiction. The MA wasn't. It's a thesis and as such has been subjected to whatever commentary and criticism is appropriate in an academic context. It stands on its own merits. Sadly, it has not been published for a wider audience to have a look at it.

The 1993 Montreal Gazette story linked here has a comment that makes it plain the movie was finished before the thesis appeared. Michael Jones is quoted as saying:

"It's always been in the air. Based on that, we did a certain amount of research, consulted with historians and that sort of thing before we made the film. But it was only after the film was finished that I read a brilliant thesis by John Fitzgerald, a young historian in St. John's, that was very supportive of the conclusions of the film - even though the film was a piece of fiction."

That's pretty clear and frankly there's no excuse for missing the point that Jones read the thesis after finishing the movie.

As for the rest of the comments Jones makes, well, only he can answer for the conversation.

-30-

Update: See also this previous post for the same erroneous comment on the inspiration for the movie.

Joke 'em if they can't take a...

Update: See below

CBC News and others in Newfoundland and Labrador have one take on Stephen Harper's remarks yesterday in the House of Commons. Here's what he said:

"Sounds like a good Conservative budget to me. Also sounds like they're having awful rough treatment and they want it to continue."

The lede on the CBC story reads this way:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper helped himself to some of the credit for Newfoundland and Labrador's record-setting surplus budget.

Sarcasm apparently doesn't come across well for Harper.

Tax cuts, spending on a variety of new programs and deficit and debt fighting. That doesn't sound like Harper is taking credit for the Newfoundland and Labrador budget, just that the thing sounds like the one delivered by his finance leprechaun.

The second part is a fairly obvious dig aimed at Premier Danny Williams. After all, if the provincial government can boost spending to record levels, it is hard to believe that the loss of Equalization - because the provincial economy is doing so well - is such a problem.

Imagine if he'd said that Canadas New Government isn't afraid to inflict prosperity on Newfoundland and Labrador.

-30-

For the record, here's the full exchange, from Hansard:

Mr. Scott Simms (Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, Lib.): Mr. Speaker, the most controlling Prime Minister in the history of Canada seems to be losing his grip on the Afghanistan mission and now the same is happening in his own caucus. Here is the latest.

A report last night from Radio-Canada says that his Atlantic colleagues are seeing the light, or perhaps feeling the heat. Now they are considering voting against the budget, the budget that is hammering them and is hammering Atlantic Canada.

What is the Prime Minister going to do to put out the fire in his own caucus?

Right Hon. Stephen Harper (Prime Minister, CPC): Mr. Speaker, I see that the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has tabled a budget today that involves record spending, paying down the debt and decreasing taxes. It sounds like a good Conservative budget to me. It also sounds like it is having awful rough treatment and it wants it to continue.

Mr. Scott Simms (Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, Lib.): Mr. Speaker, the last thing the Conservatives did was break their promise. That is what the government prides itself on doing.

Recently, even the great Progressive Conservative, John Crosbie, says that he supports Premier Williams and admits that a promise was indeed broken.

This week we have learned the Prime Minister's need to cover up anything that may tarnish his sterling facade.

How will he cover up the fault lines in this budget that is opening up all over this country of Canada?

Ms. Diane Ablonczy (Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance, CPC):

Mr. Speaker, this is wishful thinking on the part of opposition members. They seem to indulge in a lot of that and a lot of false allegations.

The fact is this is a good budget for Canada, a good budget for Newfoundland and Labrador, and we are proud to support it.

Mounties get lesson in constitutional law

Lawyers representing suspended Royal Canadian Mounted Police deputy commissioner Barbara George are seeking a federal court injunction to stop the federal police force from investigating their client for perjury.

Questions arose earlier in a parliamentary investigation into handling of the RCMP pension fund among other things. George's testimony was contradicted by other witnesses.

Well, it turns out that a parliamentary privilege of immunity dating back to at least the 17th century protects both members of parliament as well as witnesses in parliamentary proceedings.

While Federal Court Judge Daniele Trembley-Lamer hasn't handed down a ruling, a great many people will be watching the decision with interest. There may be an aspect of the law that would lift that exemption from legal proceedings in a case like this. Whatever happens it will be an important case to watch.

Local Bond Papers' readers will recall that Premier Danny Williams tossed around the idea of removing immunity in the House of Assembly. While the second article on the subject hasn't appeared yet, the first one noted that immunity would be an easy thing to remove, at least in Newfoundland and Labrador. It also made this point:

Freedom of speech is also widely held to be an important right of legislators for the wider public interest it serves. Members of the legislature are entitled to make whatever statements they wish in dealing with a public issue. The same privilege extends to those called before the legislature or its committees as witnesses. All may speak freely and openly without fear and without concern that comments ought to be proven true before they are made.

-30-

Update: In an unrelated matter, a supreme court justice in Newfoundland and Labrador today dismissed a case involving a former ombudsman who was suing the provincial legislature over his firing last year.

The justice cited parliamentary immunity as the grounds for the dismissal.

Perhaps the Premier is reconsidering his remarks in February.

And speaking of elections

Senators are expected to pass a bill currently in the Ante-chamber to the Kingdom of Heaven that would fix the next federal election date as October 19, 2009.

That would fit with more than a few political timelines in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Fabulous Fabe

More than a few in Newfoundland and Labrador were surprised by this picture [Tom Hanson/Canadian Press].

Why?

Because instead of federal finance leprechaun John Flaherty sitting next to the Prime Minister, there was Avalon member of parliament Fabian Manning.

Normally a member doesn't get to sit on the treasury benches unless he or she is a member of cabinet. Yet, there's a nattily-dressed Manning, looking on as the much more sartorially splendid Prime Minister tackles questions during the daily Question Period.

Now Newfoundlanders and Labradorians weren't struck by the attire of the two men, although some will certainly note that Fabe looks good without high-priced help.

Nope, wags across the province were wondering why Manning is cuddling up to the Prime Minister during the fracas over Equalization promises. Some are even going so far as to add the Avalon MP to a list of fellows elected to parliament who seem to have turned their backs on their province. They wonder if Manning won't be getting his come-uppance at the polls for supposedly betraying the province.

It's a good question.

Except that the whole premise of the question is based on the belief that one can only be a good, proper, loyal and trustworthy Newfoundlander by backing the provincial government in the crise du jour.

Manning might pay, but by the time of the next federal election - anyone wanna bet on 2008? - odds are good that the ruckus with Harper will be forgotten and Manning will be re-elected handily. On top of that, Manning is the likely choice to replace Loyola Hearn should the province's current federal cabinet representative opt for retirement.

Odds are also good that Manning - ousted from the provincial Tory caucus in a dispute with Premier Danny Williams - will be taking advice from John Crosbie on how to conduct his business. Wouldn't that be an interesting development: Premier Danny Williams dealing with the guy he wouldn't have stay in his own caucus, and the fellow from the Southern Shore having his hand on bags of federal cash.

Talk about come-uppance.

-30-

Update: A quick check of the Commons seating chart indicates that The Fabulous Fabe was actually sitting in the seat normally occupied by Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Transportation.

The finance leprechaun must have been absent that day or just not in the shot.

Another life outside your radio

A few weeks ago, your humble e-scribbler bumped into VOCM talk show host Linda Swain on a street in downtown St. John's.

It seemed strange to see the person in the flesh when usually she is just a voice coming out of the radio.

Swain is a real person, of course and she has a life beyond listening to people ranting about this that and the other.

Swain is also a visual artist, with a new exhibit of her work at the Pollyanna Gallery, Duckworth Street until May 29.

The Telegram's Joan Sullivan has a feature on Swain and her latest exhibition.

Budget 2007: a quick look at the numbers

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador forecast record spending for 2007, at more than $5.5 billion.

Some quick observations based on a simple breakdown into the good, the bad and the ugly of the budget:

The Good

Tax cuts and increased program spending.

All good in an election year and make no mistake: this is an election budget.

People will be happy and the provincial government is certainly counting on people's immediate sense of contentment to see the current administration re-elected with an overwhelming majority.

No region of the province is untouched by extra cash. No person will be left out of the tax breaks or other benefits.

The source of the cash: all the supposedly bad deals signed before 2003 by previous administrations, Liberal and Conservative.

Windfalls from high oil prices produced the supposed miracle of deficit slaying. Everything in this budget, indeed every budget increase since 2003 has been based on high oil prices.

Thank you Brian Mulroney and Brian Peckford. Thanks to the administrations that developed Voisey's Bay and the offshore oil fields at Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose.

The latter field is expected to hit payout in FY 2007. As a result, royalties will jump to 30% on the price of each barrel.

The Bad

This budget forecasts a spending increase 5.6% from Fiscal Year (FY) 2006. It also projects increased spending of 4.7% and 4.2% over the subsequent two fiscal years.

That's bad since it exceeds the rate of inflation by more than double in FY 2007. The Bank of Canada forecasts inflation to run at 2.2% in 2007 and at 2.7% for each of the two years after.

Prudent fiscal management would hold spending to at most the projected inflation rate. That doesn't mean program spending would need to be curtailed in important areas, nor does it mean the provincial couldn't afford tax cuts to bring provincial rates in line with Atlantic Canada. Rather it would simply require the provincial government to make some clear choices in what it considers important, rather than fix every problem by more spending.

Even in FY 2004 when the current administration proclaimed the province to be in a financial mess, it still introduced a budget that increased spending from the previous year. Spending has increased every year since. That's not going to be sustainable given the absence of a major new development at Hebron, which would have achieved first oil as production from at least two of the other fields slackened.

As it stands currently - and unless there are supersecret talks on Hebron no one is talking about - Hebron won't be producing oil for another decade or more. In the interim, the impact of demographic changes throughout the province will increase pressure on the provincial treasury at a time when the province's coffers will not be seeing significant new cash flowing in.

The current and forecast spending increases are based on optimistic projections for the price of oil in the medium term. Any downward trend in commodity prices (oil, minerals etc) will quickly make the consistent spending increases since 2003 unsustainable. Fiscal reality in those circumstances - taking less money in than is flowing out - would require program cuts, job losses and/or tax increases to correct.

Our plan is to continue this responsible approach in the years that follow to ensure we are increasingly strong, less reliant on the whims of others and more reliant on
ourselves.

The whims referred to are likely those supposed whims of the Government of Canada. This budget - like all recent budgets - builds itself on the whims of international commodities markets. Which one is less reliable?

More bad. Per capita spending will be $10, 871 per person in the province, assuming a population of 512, 000. It will jump to $11, 878 per person in FY 2008 putting Newfoundland and Labrador on par with Alberta for per capita provincial government spending. Drop the population below 500,000 and Newfoundland and Labrador will be outspending Alberta, the richest province in the country.

The difference is that Alberta isn't carrying around the per capita debt Newfoundland and Labrador shoulders, which, as noted below using the finance minister's own words, limits the provincial government's options in dealing with any financial setbacks.

That level of per capita spending is unsustainable in the long run. As a recent Atlantic Institute for Market Studies assessment concluded:

If the province fails to reign in its whopping per capita government spending (about $8800/person [in FY 2006]) and super-size me civil service (96 provincial government employees /1000 people) it will quickly erode any gains from increased energy revenues.

The Ugly

As much as the provincial government talks about the large public sector debt, so far it hasn't done anything to deal with it.

Finance minister Tom Marshall described the issue accurately in the budget speech, saying:

The most significant fiscal challenge facing Newfoundland and Labrador is the burden of debt we inherited, the highest per capita net debt in Canada, more than double the national average. High debt loads mean high interest payments, whether for a family or for a government. Reducing debt frees up money to spend on programs and other priorities.

All government has done is produce a net reduction in the debt by a mere $70 million in FY 2006 and forecast a further reduction of $66 million in FY 2007. At that rate - i.e. $70 million per year - the province will be debt free in 2178.

If there is a budget surplus in FY 2007, as currently forecast, most if not all should be committed to reducing the public debt. Anything else is whistling past the graveyard.

Government's reported success in reducing the debt to GDP ratio has come not from strong fiscal management by government but in growth in GDP driven primarily by commodity prices. Lower the GDP - as in a drop in commodity prices - and those apparent gains will vanish.

There's another ugly element in the budget reporting and that is in the misleading presentation of revenue from the 2005 agreement with the Government of Canada. It will not produce additional cash for the treasury in FY 2007 despite the claim by the finance minister that "[w]ithout the 2005 Accord negotiated by our Premier, we would be receiving $305.7 million less than we are getting this year."

In reality, that cash has already been received and spent on shoring up the teachers' pension plan. That was sound financial decision, but the provincial finance minister cannot claim double credit for the money.

Statement I in the FY 2007 Estimates shows the reality. A modest $49 million surplus on current and capital account forecast for FY 2007 becomes a $255 million shortfall once the $305 million from the 2005 cash advance is deducted.

-30-

The Boss is Always Right

And if the Boss is wrong?

Well, in the case of the Russian chief electoral officer, that just isn't possible.

Reuters moved this story earlier in April:

Doubts over judgment of 'impartial' election official who claims Putin
always right


THE Russian official whose role is to act as an impartial umpire in elections has said in a published interview that president Vladimir Putin is always right.

Kremlin critics have raised doubts about the impartiality of Vladimir Churov, a former colleague of the president's who was last month chosen as chairman of the Central Election Commission.

In his first major newspaper interview since he started his new job, Mr Churov told the Kommersant newspaper yesterday that "Churov's Law No 1" is that Mr Putin is always right.

Asked by the newspaper what would happen if it turned out the Russian leader was mistaken on a certain issue, Mr Churov said: "How can Putin be wrong?"

Mr Churov worked alongside Mr Putin in the 1990s in the same local administration department in St Petersburg.

The new election chief has previously said he will treat all participants in elections fairly and equally.

Mr Churov will have a crucial role overseeing an election to the federal parliament in December and a presidential poll next March, when a replacement for Mr Putin is to be chosen.

In Russia, the election chief is often called on to adjudicate on allegations of vote violations, including claims bureaucrats have used their power to influence the outcome of elections.

Mr Churov replaced the independent-minded Alexander Veshnyakov at the helm of the election commission.

Analysts have interpreted the change of guard as part of a Kremlin plan to ensure a smooth transfer of power to Mr Putin's preferred candidate in the presidential poll.

Mr Putin, accused by critics of rolling back democracy, enjoys strong popularity after seven years of stable economic growth which brought relative prosperity for millions of Russians.

From a course report long ago?

DS: Soldiers will follow this officer if only out of idle curiosity. He should have a bright career in politics.

Two degrees of separation: Couple scammed in DR

This story is making the national news, but it was circulating widely in Newfoundland and Labrador within a few hours of the couple making it back home.

When travelling in certain countries it is important to know the telephone number for the local Canadian embassy or consulate.

Local debater scores big

A St. John's youth has placed 6th in the world overall at the prestigious 2007 World Individual Debating and Public Speaking Championships recently held in Cape Town, South Africa.

Sam Greene, a Level 1 student at Holy Heart of Mary High School placed 3rd in the debating event, broke to the top ten in the Impromptu Speaking event and placed in the top 15 in the Interpretive Speaking and Persuasive Speaking events.

At 16, Sam was the youngest member of the Canadian delegation of 12 top debate and public speaking competitors from across Canada. This was only the third time in 25 years a student from this province has qualified to compete at the World Individual Debating and Public Speaking Championships. As a level 1 student, he is eligible to compete at this level for another two years.

He qualified for the international event at the CanWest National Public Speaking Championships in Winnipeg earlier this Spring, where he won first place in debating and placed 7th overall nationally.

On Wednesday, Sam along with two other local students, leaves for Ottawa to participate in the qualifying trials to select Team Canada for other upcoming international events. Members of this team of 9 students will represent Canada at the Pan-American Student Debate Championships, the European Student Debate Championships and ultimately the Worlds Schools Debate Championship.

Jonny Lomond (Holy Heart High School) and Kirsten Morry (Prince of Wales Collegiate) are the other two students participating at the qualifying trials to select Team Canada.

-30-

AG to get fibreoptic documents

After months of insisting that provincial law prevented cabinet from releasing cabinet documents to the Auditor General, cabinet has decided to give Auditor General John Noseworthy access to documents relevant to his review of a controversial fibreoptic cable deal between government and a private sector consortium.

No explanation for the change is included in the CBC story linked above, but the decision by cabinet is consistent with an idea advanced by Bond Papers before Christmas (first link above) that the Ag could be given access based on cabinet discretion.

The new Oldest Living Father of Confederation

One story for home. One for away.

It must be like a hockey team with a white shirt for home games and a dark one for away, except this one has a white shirt for both, depending on your perspective.

At home, Danny Williams is a fearless champion of Newfoundland nationalism. White shirt.

In Winnipeg, he's a fearless Canadian fighting the Newfoundland separatists. A different white shirt.

No joking.

From the Canadian Press post-throne speech coverage:

Premier Danny Williams says he's trying to quell separatist feelings within Newfoundland and Labrador, despite a throne speech that suggested the province should push for more autonomy from Ottawa.

"The fans of sovereignty are here. If anything, I've been trying to dampen those fires as much as I can," Williams said yesterday.

"Dampen those fires as much as I can"?

Uh huh.

Riiiiiight.

Update: There's a related story on cbc.ca/nl.

-30-

Throne speech: one view from away

In the National Post.

Short and to the point.

Reasons there's no spring election, number whatever

Sucky poll results.

Strategic Counsel's numbers for the Globe: CPC 36/LPC 30/NDP 13/BQ 39.

And that's on the heels of the Decima results as reported by Canadian Press. The Conservatives at 30 are virtually tied with the Liberals, showing at 29. Decima's poll a month ago showed the federal Conservatives at 39%.