06 December 2007

Good question, Ron. Too bad you can't answer it.

Considering a subsidy of a mere $150,000 from the City of St. John's to the Aquarena, councillor Ron Ellsworth is quoted by CBC news as saying:

"It's a regional facility providing a regional service, so why aren't they going to other municipalities and getting this money that's needed?"

So why exactly doesn't Ellsworth take the same attitude to forking out 10 times as much in a direct subsidy, and upwards of 20 times that amount in total outlays for the Money Pit, a.k.a. Mile One?

Ellsworth said his opposition to the Aquarena subsidy is based on a business case.

How about showing the taxpayers the business case, Ron?

-srbp-

05 December 2007

Of cheese and evidence

The Great Fish Trade Myth - and its recent proponent Brian Peckford -  as demolished by the editorialist at the Telegram.

This should generate as much hate mail for the Telly as Russell Wangersky's sensible critique of the "How Irish are we" mythology.

-srbp-

Newfound NV update

At an extraordinary general meeting held on 04 December 2007, Newfound NV shareholders approved an arrangement that would see the issue of shares to two directors at a value of 7.0 million pounds sterling. This gives the company needed operating capital.

As well, the company has raised an additional 3.6 million pounds sterling through a share placement to unspecified institutional and other investors.

A corporate news release stated:

The proceeds of the Placing, together with those of the Subscription, will be used for general working capital purposes and to allow the Company to pursue its revised business strategy. The Company's strategy is to:

* Focus on the conservation of working capital in the near term, including, inter alia, reduction of overheads at Humber Valley Resort;

* Further develop its current projects to build additional value and returns, which will include, inter alia, the development of relationships with branded operators and resort funds, driving sales growth through marketing led development, finalising the Nevis masterplan and obtaining outline planning permission, and the pursuit of debt financing for ongoing resort development supported by the assets of the Group;

* Review and assess opportunities for bulk land sales, sales of legacy plots and re-sales;

* Expand holiday sales through direct and specialist tour operators and partnerships with holiday sales companies for Humber Valley Resort;

* Expand the resort portfolio in the long term.

-srbp-

04 December 2007

Mainlander sees Williams as abandoning confrontation

it's always interesting to see the difference in the way mainlanders view the premier, versus some of the locals.

Like the editor of the Packet who finds it necessary to invent excuses rather than simply accept Danny Williams 'shut up and go away' as being exactly what he meant to say.

A good democratic society welcomes opinions from all quarters, including those of former politicians.

Re-examine your assumptions, Barbara. 

A good democratic society does welcome opinions.

Since opinions aren't welcome here? 

Figure it out.

Meanwhile, in Saskatchewan, Randy Burton thinks the heavens are coming into alignment foretelling the solution to the equalization strife.  One of his signs?  Let's let Randy tell it:

The third reason progress now seems possible on the equalization file is that at long last, Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams now appears ready to deal. A few days after his conversation with Boyd, the prime minister was in Newfoundland to meet with Williams.

There was no breakthrough, but for the moment at least, Williams is ready to talk about some other kind of federal transfers that might offset what he's losing under a new equalization deal that caps payments to the provinces.

Williams emerged from their meeting to say he gave the prime minister some options, which is a new tack for the normally confrontational premier.

Seems the farther one is away from the object being viewed, the more clearly one may make observations.

-srbp-

Murphy Oil an attractive buy for investors

But will either a private sector investor or the new provincial energy corporation be in a buying mood?

-srbp-

Lone 2007 offshore parcel awarded

The lone offshore parcel available in 2007 went to Corridor Resources, Inc, the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board announced today.

The Western Star incorrectly reported that the provincial government made the announcement. CNLOPB is a joint management board of the federal and provincial governments.

The C-NLOPB accepted a bid from Corridor Resources Inc. in the amount of $1,521,000 for the parcel which is composed of 51,780 ha. The Bid represents the expenditure which the bidder commits to make in exploring the parcel during the initial 5-year period of a 9-year term exploration licence.

The provincial government merely issued a news release stating that the land sale was a positive sign and attributing positive developments to the recently released energy plan.

Horse hockey. One solitary parcel is a sign of an offshore that is suffering a serious lack of interest from developers.

We'll need to see what happens in the next few years to determine if the energy plan has had a positive effect. The energy plan won't be complete and therefore won't have an impact until both the gas royalty regime and the oil royalty regime are finalized.

Update 05 Dec: The Star has corrected the reference in the current online version.


-srbp-

It must be a good idea.

Andy Wells opposes it.

Councilor Frank Galgay suggested selling the Mile One money pit at a council meeting last night. he was attacked immediately by Mayor Andy Wells. The boorish mayor demanded that Galgay tell him how much someone in the private sector might pay for the facility. Then His Boorishness proceeded to lament the sorry state of the province's educational system.

The start of the conversation was tabling of the financial reports for the Money Pit.

A loss of $640,000 in the last fiscal year.

Bear in mind that council deliberately increased the subsidy to the Pit last year claiming that somehow a financially successful money pit actually needed more free cash.

But here's the thing.

If one considers the $500,000 added subsidy as part of the shortfall, then the Money Pit's operating shortfall in Fiscal Year 2006 is...

wait for it...$1.14 million.

The deficit from the previous year? Why one tenth of that figure.

It's not reported in the story linked above but other reports have the shortfall from the previous year at around $130,000.

Wow.

The $640,000 shortfall is bad enough, but the real shortfall is staggering. It becomes stupefying when one considers that the annual subsidy before the boost was about $1.0 million.

In other words, the stadium lost as much money in 2006 as the taxpayers of St. John's pumped into it in subsidy.

But really that subsidy is an operating loss as well.

The taxpayers of St. John's don't make any money on this venture. They get the privilege of paying - this number will shock you - $1.5 million in subsidy plus the $640,000 shortfall for a total loss of $2.14 million.

Holy crap.

And what does the mayor think?

"It's well in the mix, so this is not — contrary to what some people are saying — this is not a major drain on the taxpayers of St. John's. It's working pretty well."

Working pretty well, huh.

At least no one will need to ask the mayor the same question he posed to Galgay at last night's meeting.

Suggesting that Mile One is working pretty well makes the answer plain.

Sell the Money Pit.

No matter what cash we'd get for it, the taxpayers will be better off in the long run.

-srbp-

Update: Andy Wells is proud of Mile One, so proud he claims the stadium has a per-user subsidy like the Mews Centre or the Wedgewood Park Centre.

Apples? Meet Oranges.

For those who don't know, the latter are community recreation centres operated by the city for the benefit of residents. It's fair to talk about a per-user subsidy for those facilities which are, by definition, used by citizens individually for their own personal fitness. If my family goes to the place, we get the direct benefit of it in the way of improving our fitness and health. We should expect the place to break even but, in the event there is a shortfall in operating expenses, it's reasonable for council to provide a small subsidy of some kind.

Mile One is completely different.

It's a facility built as a commercial venue for concerts, ice hockey and a variety of similar large events. Using some kind of "per-user" comparison for subsidies is more than a bit misleading.

For the purposes of determining cost and benefit, it would be more useful to look at Mile One as a commercial venture and look at how much money it loses. It should be making a profit. Breaking even, the goal we should set for all taxpayer-owned facilities, would be acceptable but profit would be nicer.

$1.5 million in operating subsidy, plus covering the $640,000 shortfall on the last fiscal year.

More than $2.0 million.

Hmmm.

Not good.

Then we look at the general trend.

Definitely bad, since the loss to the taxpayers resulting from operating the facility seems to be going up. It's pretty bad when losses go up in an otherwise good year economically in the region. To see losses climb by 10 times (the inflated subsidy is really a mask for the deeper operating problem) and you've got a pretty - obviously - significant problem on your hands.

To make matters worse, the mayor expects that expenses for the stadium will always exceed revenue. In that environment, the residents of the city can only expect things to get worse. The mayor not only tries to find excuses for the loses, he actually thinks they will go on and on as some sort of natural occurence. City officials have no incentive to make things better and officials at the stadium/conference centre have no incentive to improve. The mayor has the excuses already written out.

Where else but St. John's would this sorry excuse for municipal government be allowed to continue?

03 December 2007

Mulroney can't reform Senate, ex-PM claims

Blink again and look at the date of the article. You haven't been caught in a Canadian episode of Star Trek and no one has violated the Temporal Prime Directive.

Rather, what we here is an old article on senate reform starring the current prime minister's mentor/albatross. There are some curious aspects to the story in hindsight. 

For example, the changes Mulroney had in mind were eventually floated out in the Meech Lake Accord and died with that deal in June 1990.  Executive federalism simply isn't the way to go with reforming an institution as fundamental as the federal parliament. These sorts of things have to include Canadians across the country.

Then there is the reference to Pierre-Marc Johnson, then the Quebec intergovernmental affairs minister and these days Stephen harper's go-to guy on environmental issues.

Last but by no means least there is the comment from British Columbia premier Bill Bennett.  He's right.  Abolition of the senate is 'the sort of thing I expect a teenager to say but not someone who is interested in government".

Local audiences get a special bonus feature.  Consider that the focus of this story is a former first minister giving advice to his successor.  Brian Mulroney initially blew off Pierre Trudeau's comments;  yes, 25-odd years later Mulroney would pen a book blaming everything on Trudeau, but at the time Mulroney wasn't a bitter, frustrated ex-politician. In a situation no way similar at all - Peckford wasn't specifically slagging the current provincial Tories -  Danny Williams launched a media attack on the former premier for having the audacity to share his opinion with people in the province.

 

The Gazette, Thursday, March 7, 1985

Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau said yesterday that Brian Mulroney doesn't stand a chance of carrying out his plans to revamp the Senate and "I'm not sure he wants to, either."

And Liberal leader John Turner accused Prime Minister Mulroney of "bluffing" when he offered on Tuesday to abolish the Senate if the Liberals would support the plan.

Mulroney himself, meanwhile, appeared to back off from his offer to reform the Senate.

And he discounted reports that at least three provinces oppose a constitutional amendment that would not abolish the Liberal-dominated Senate but limit the time it can debate legislation passed by the Tory- dominated Commons.

The threats to abolish or curb the Senate were triggered when the Senate blocked a $19.3-billion government borrowing bill for a month, until last week.

Trudeau said of Senate reform yesterday: "I had tried to do it and the premiers prevented me."

"I'm sure he (Mulroney) won't (succeed). I'm not sure he wants to, either."

Trudeau made several unsuccessful attempts to reform the Senate while he was prime minister.

In 1980 he included Senate reform in his package to patriate the Constitution, but the courts ruled he had to have the consent of all 10 provinces and the idea fell by the wayside. Since then, the Constitution has been altered to allow amendments with the approval of seven provinces containing 50 per cent of Canada's population.

Trudeau would not elaborate to reporters yesterday.

He was attending a Montreal reception honoring Quebec painter Jean Paul Lemieux and insisted he was not there to hold a news conference. He did say, however, that with the end of his "sabbatical year" this summer, he may make public statements on policy issues.

He stepped down as PM last July after the Liberals chose Turner to succeed him and now works for a Montreal law firm.

In Ottawa, Turner said that Mulroney was merely playing politics and was not serious about abolishing the non-elected upper house of Parliament when he made his proposal during Tuesday's question period in the Commons.

"I think he was bluffing," Turner told reporters.

Since the Senate can't veto its own abolition, Turner said, Mulroney could use his 211-seat majority in the 287-seat Commons to push a resolution through, provided he had the support of the provinces.

"He doesn't need my support. If he wants to abolish the Senate let him bring in the bill," Turner said.

Mulroney insisted early yesterday he was serious about abolition. But later he said the proposal was made "under the express condition that Mr. Turner get up immediately (in the Commons) to give his approval."

Asked whether his offer had been withdrawn, Mulroney replied: "Well, if he gets back to me today (yesterday), we'll take a look at it."

Whatever Mulroney's stand on abolishing the Senate, his inner cabinet has approved a constitutional amendment to curb the Senate's power to block legislation passed by the Commons and the full cabinet will consider the plan today.

Mulroney has said legislation will follow quickly once the provinces have been consulted. As it now stands, Mulroney can't get a constitutional amendment to limit the time the Senate can debate bills because he lacks the support of seven provinces with 50 per cent of the population.

But when reporters noted that Manitoba, British Columbia and Prince Edward Island have objections to tinkering with the Senate's powers, Mulroney retorted: "Don't be so sure of that. We'll see what the provinces say, but I'm encouraged by the results."

Only Alberta, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have said they support a time-limit amendment.

Quebec Intergovermental Affairs Minister Pierre Marc Johnson said yesterday Quebec could not go along with the plan until it signs the 1982 Constitution.

New Brunswick Premier Richard Hatfield has said he wants to see the proposed amendment before commenting.

Manitoba's New Democratic Party government wants the Senate abolished or at least substantially reformed.

Ontario Premier Frank Miller said yesterday he would consider a constitutional amendment to limit the time the Senate can debate money bills, but he opposes abolition and is in no hurry to decide what lesser changes could be made.

British Columbia Premier Bill Bennett called abolition of the Senate "the sort of thing I expect a teenager to say but not someone who is interested in government."

-srbp-

Lord to do B and B revival

Former New Brunswick premier Bernard Lord will be heading a revised version of the old B and B commission.

No, not the bed and breakfast crowd.

Bilingualism and biculturalism.

As Canadian Press reports:

Lord, 42, will travel to seven cities across the country during the first two weeks of December to speak to members of English and French minority communities.

He is to report to the federal government in January as it prepares to update its action plan on official languages. [Emphasis added]

And what are the seven cities 'across the country' that Lord will visit?  Well, you'll find them listed in the Radio Canada online version of this story: Halifax, Moncton, Montréal, Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Vancouver.  No stops in Saskatchewan or in Newfoundland and Labrador, even though, there is a substantial francophone population in the province.

Their issues and interests are not the same as those of francophones in other parts of the country, if for no other reason than they are relatively isolated here from francophones elsewhere. Consider that M. Lord and his fellow commissioners will hold two hearings in the Maritimes.  One in Moncton, naturellement, and another a mere three hours drive by car away in Halifax. 

Yes, Halifax.

Not Stephenville or Port au Port.

Not even in St. John's.

But Halifax.

Why add Halifax to the list?  If the federal government wanted  at least one session in each 'region", then the session in  Moncton would fit the bill.  Moncton is well-sited for many purposes and basically if there was anyone in Halifax who wanted to chat with M. Lord, well, he or she could hop a car or a plane and flip over to the New Brunswick city without busting the bank account.

Not so for the Franco-Terre Neuvien(nes) or Labradorien(nes).  no matter how you look at it, anyone from this province wanting to participate in this consultation will be forking out some serious cash for a plane ride, all for a few minutes to try and explain to the former premier of new Brunswick what is going on in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Nonetheless, the consultation is a good opportunity to give the government some feedback.  The English version of the consultation document can be found here while the version francais is here.

-srbp-

Prawns as pawns? A nationalist never recognized the "national" interest.

CBC Radio's fisheries broadcast has been carrying some commentary over the past couple weeks repeating the commonly held view that the federal government traded various fish quotas for favourable trade arrangements on commodities from other parts of Canada.

The old argument, favoured by the local nationalists, is supposedly proof that Ottawa screws Newfoundland at every opportunity, that Confederation isn't working or that Newfoundland is just exploited by the evil crew in Ottawa for the gain of everyone else.

But is there any evidence to support the argument?

Not so, say a great many people. The subject was studied for federal fisheries a few years ago and not a single example could be found of any trade deal for, say wheat or cars, that featured a consideration for fish. In other words, there was no sign of a Hyundai for flounder arrangement or durham for turbot.

The story persists, nonetheless, repeated by a great many others.

It persists to the point that former premier Brian Peckford penned an opinion piece for the Sunday Telegram on 02 December. it doesn't seem to be online, so there's a typed version of it below. Peckford turned up on the fish cast on Monday afternoon with host John Furlong, followed by former federal cabinet representative John Crosbie.

Peckford repeated the basic story, claiming he had various documents to prove his claims. Crosbie dismissed the notion, with the exception of the one obvious case of the 5,000 tonnes of northern cod that formed part of an arrangement with France in order to get the St. Pierre boundary into an arbitration.

If Peckford has documents, it would be nice to see them. All he has presented in the article below are a series of letters he wrote in which he makes certain claims. There is no evidence, such as a specific example of one such deal. Rather, one sees merely a statement of the claim as if that alone was evidence of the existence of the fish trade-offs. it isn't.

What's more curious than merely the presentation of a claim as if it were fact is Peckford's characterization of the 1987 agreement with France:

"The Government of Canada offers this non-surplus fish without any commitment from France to stop overfishing in 3PS. ... You expect this Province to sacrifice alone for a national boundary question"

Peckford presents the boundary dispute as if it had little, if anything, to do with Newfoundland and Labrador. Peckford attempts to disconnect the issue of alleged French overfishing in 3PS, a fisheries management zone adjacent to St. Pierre, from the boundary question. Peckford's position, of course, is as disingenuous on this point today as it was at the time.

French fishing was based upon the argument that the waters in 3PS were French. Since the boundary was undefined, French fishermen had every right to fish to their heart's content. There was no legal means by which Canada could enforce its view on the French, any more than fishermen from Newfoundland and Labrador would have rejected any efforts by French fisheries officers to stop them from fishing waters they viewed as being Canadian.

The mechanism to stop the French "overfishing" Peckford referred to was the boundary arbitration. The price of that arbitration was, in part, 5000 tonnes of northern cod. Beyond that, resolving the boundary also paved the way for exploration and then development of oil and gas resources on the Grand Banks.

How odd that the archetypical Newfoundland nationalist - supposedly ever vigilant in defence of Newfoundland's interests - would argue against an agreement between Canada and France that worked in the interest of Newfoundland and Labrador directly.

Perhaps if Peckford has some evidence on that one, he'll present it as well. The debate stirred up on the fisheries broadcast will be useful if only to determine if there is any evidence at all to support the arguments Peckford and others have been making over the years. If, as it appears, the whole thing is nothing more than a myth, perhaps the fables can finally be labelled for what they are.

-srbp-

The Telegram, December 2, 2007, Page A7

A. Brian Peckford

Were fish stocks used as bargaining chips?; Communiqués from the 1980s show it was an ongoing concern for the province

Apparently there has been discussion in recent times as to whether historically the federal government used fish stocks off the province as a bargaining chip or whether they pursued such policies.

In a cursory review of documents I have in my possession, there seems to be some substance to this allegation.

Let me elaborate.

In October 1980, I wrote a letter to then prime minister Pierre Trudeau in which I highlighted three policies by the federal government that were harmful to the province. One was the matter of including part of Newfoundland in the Department if Fisheries and Oceans Gulf Region, another was a proposed new licensing system and a third was "... the directions being taken regarding the allocation of offshore fish stocks, principally northern cod, to foreign nations in return for trade concessions of dubious value." Also in that letter, I advised the prime minister that I had already written to two of his ministers, [Herb] Gray and [Mark] MacGuigan, about this last matter. In June 1982, in a paper issued by the government of Newfoundland and Labrador under the name of the then minister of Fisheries James Morgan entitled "The Fishery: A Business and a Way of Life," the following statement was made:

"The Government of Newfoundland has serious reservations regarding the entire 'commensurate benefits' policy as followed by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans. ... The bilateral fishing agreements should not be used to seek concessions of market access in return for allocations of stocks within our zone which are of commercial benefit to the Canadian fishing industry."

In May 1983, the government of Newfoundland, under my name, issued a document entitled "Restructuring the Fishery" which was a presentation to the federal government. On page 12 of that document, the following statement was made: "The Province takes the position that Canada should not trade access to fish in return for market access. By eliminating foreign allocations we would improve the market for our fish products."

In September 1984. in a Government of Newfoundland document entitled "Major Bilateral Issues, Canada-Newfoundland," the following statement was made on page 15: "Trade opportunities for fish products must not be pursued at the price of foreign allocations from fishery resources ..."

In 1987, I sent a written communication to the then minister of Transport and Newfoundland's representative in the federal cabinet, John Crosbie. This was at the time when the Canada/France boundary matter was being discussed between the two nations. In that communication, among other things, I said the following:

"The Government of Canada has offered non surplus 2J3KL cod to France.

"The Government of Canada offers this non-surplus fish without any commitment from France to stop overfishing in 3PS.

"You expect this Province to sacrifice alone for a national boundary question.

"You are part of a Government that continues to trade with France in other areas and refuses to use these other levers to help solve the boundary issue. ..."

In this last case, I do not know what else Canada had on the table in these talks, but this communication was sent using the best information the provincial government had at the time. I do not remember if any or all this communication was proven to be false.

I think it is fair to suggest, if not maintain, that based upon these documents, there is a case to be made that the federal government was trading fish off the province for questionable return, either in the form of so-called market access or involving other products or issues.

A. Brian Peckford was premier of Newfoundland from 1979-1989.

02 December 2007

Makes ya wonder if the charity is the Adopt-A-Brain Trust

You just can't make thus stuff up.

You can't.

Combining reality television with a game show is just brilliant, but what makes this show run is the complete failure of the school system in so many parts of the United States.

[h/t apply-liberally.com]

Her name is Kellie, apparently and that wasn't her only problem while on the show.

Here she is freaking at a spelling question.

 

Kellie Pickler, it seems, is a refugee from American Idol.

Her appearance even made news:

Dumaresque confused

Provincial Liberal Party president Danny Dumaresque is confused.

He turned up in Montreal this weekend, as reported by vocm.com, "making sure someone is speaking up for the province. He says he's there specifically to push the federal government to transfer the 8 and a half percent ownership of Petro-Canada's offshore oil interests to the province."

The meeting was of federal riding presidents. Dumaresque isn't one of them. He's president of the provincial party.

There was really no reason for Dumaresque to be turning up there, except if he had another agenda on his mind. Like say his leadership campaign that he won't announce. That would explain the reference to speaking up for the province when there are already plenty of elected people quite capable of doing that.

Plus there are a bunch of Liberal candidates in the three federal ridings currently held by Conservatives, any one of whom could do the same job.

So what exactly is Danny Dumaresque doing in Montreal, other than demonstrating he is somewhat uncertain about his job as provincial party president?

Oh yes.

And campaigning for the provincial party leadership.

As for "his agenda" being favourably received, we might all wonder to which agenda he is referring.

His leadership agenda seems to be going over like a lead balloon.

-srbp-

01 December 2007

Wanna learn English?

Retroactive introduction:  From time to time, Bond Papers ( and now Persuasion Business) offers up an example of some creative advertising.  This example is for an English language training school and much like the Berlitz one relies on humour. The difference is that why the German one could be shown easily to your grandparents without upsetting them - even if they are German themselves - the one posted below is raw, edgy and pretty much guaranteed to raise eyebrows and even evoke some pretty strong criticism.

So there you have it...

From the Netherlands.

Funny.

Language not safe for work (NSFW)

[via daimnation!]

The "I"s have it: Danny Williams on senate reform

Senate reform was one of the issues discussed during a 45 minute meeting between Prime minister Stephen harper and Premier Danny Williams in St. John's on Friday. Williams told reporters after the meeting that the two leaders discussed several topics.

Note the way Williams refers to it: he speaks about his feelings, his issues and his views as opposed to positions of the government. Apparently his views expressed in this highly personalized way are synonymous with those of the government or the province as a whole.

Certainly for a perspective on the national issues, I have my own feelings and we didn't get in to it. My own feelings on federal spending limitations, the environment, environmental issues. So I'm able -- and obviously energy -- to discuss those at a national level.

When we sit around the table as a group of first ministers, then we deal at that high level. As well, that doesn't mean that Jean Charest and Quebec aren't going to talk with their issues and I'm not going to talk about my issues. If I have outstanding issues with the Government of Canada, I've certainly raised them. Those meetings are national meetings. To be quite honest with you, I don't have any problem raising to that level...

I guess where I agree with him on certain issues. I have issues on senate reform, but there are other areas where I could find agreement. When it comes to discussing his position at the commonwealth and where he is on Kyoto and where he's positioning Canada at this particular point in time in Kyoto, that may be an area where I could agree with him. I won't take my personal disagreements on behalf of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador and use those to disagree with the prime minister on every national issue because that's not in the national interest.

There's an aspect of this highly personalized way of dealing with issues that crops up in the letter the Premier sent the Prime Minister earlier this year on senate reform. The letter was copied to the senate committee studying the government bills before the last sitting of parliament prorogued.

Toward the end of the letter, Williams states that any discussions on senate reform should take place among first ministers, what Williams referred to in the Friday scrum as "that high level." Executive federalism is alive and well.

The letter is presented here as a series of image files. They are as big as the space will allow, but should be legible if you click on them and enlarge the image.

williams senate reform1


williams senate reform2



williams senate reform3

Welcome to the endgame

The Telegram account of the Friday meeting between premier and Prime Minister carries a headline about a temporary ceasefire.

They're right.

Williams declared a ceasefire or a toning down of his personal vendetta likely in reaction to pressure from his own caucus.

Then again, Williams did follow his usual pattern of changing the definition of what it takes to satisfy him, too. Recall that in 2004 his negotiations consisted of pointing repeatedly that he wasn't happy and that it was up to the other side to make him happy. When the other party presented him with something that satisfied his demand for happiness, Williams merely shifted ground claiming that the offer didn't make him happy enough or that while that used to make him happy, it is no longer what works.

To wit, the loan guarantee on the Lower Churchill.

A loan guarantee from Ottawa to help with the project is something Williams used to talk about a lot. It was one of the promises - this one a supposed one - that Harper was supposed to keep unless the might of Danny would be called down on the Harper crown.

Now?

A loan guarantee is just that, and it's only a guarantee if we default. That's a good project. That's an annuity. That's a license to print money. That's why we're going to do it alone and that's why we want to have a big piece of the action. Forgive me, we're going to do it in partnership with others. So a loan guarantee is not a big deal. It will enable us to pick up money a little bit cheaper. We'll get a little lower on our interest rate. That's what the benefit is, but that's not $9 billion in cash and don't think for one minute it is. I know you know the difference. That's not a big deal.

There are a few reasons for this shift in direction, beyond the fact that it is just Williams' pattern. As pointed out previously:

  1. The loan guarantee would come with a price tag, namely a federal equity stake - an ownership stake - in the so-called "go it alone" project. The downsides of that should be obvious to anyone who has paid attention to Williams for the past four years.
  2. There never was a loan guarantee offer in the first place. Again, no one reading Bond papers regularly is surprised by this, but it bears repeating. The whole idea of a federal loan guarantee is a Williams invention. it's easy to dismiss something you made up in the first place.
  3. Williams doesn't need the money any more. The Lower Churchill will be backstopped by Hebron - that's one of the reasons for the quickie deal and the real intended use of the Hebron cash all along - as well as the unnamed partners in the "go it alone" version of the Lower Churchill. In the quote above Williams corrects himself and refers to doing the project "in partnership with others." Make note of that correction. Who those others are is a mystery and likely will remain a mystery for years to come.
  4. We are in the endgame of a fight that was never really much of a fight. It would seem that this prime minister, as with the last one, finally drew the line. At that point - as in January 2005 - Williams knew that the bluster and bluff that characterizes his public style has run its course. Exactly the same thing happened when Paul Martin told Williams bluntly that he had reached the end. A final offer was on the table. The Hebron partners likely did something very similar, although in their case, they held the negotiating whip hand as the version of the deal announced earlier in the fall suggests. in this case, Williams started off by acknowledging that the positions are firmly entrenched. Both parties agree to disagree on the "principles" - i.e. the final position is on the table - and the only question now is about compensation.

Some enterprising reporter should dig out the scrum from 28 January 2005 and find the one sentence where Williams talks about the remaining - or did he say "only" - question being the "quantum".

That's the only question left in the family feud between Danny and Steve.

-srbp-

Update: Stephen Harper sounds like he made it clear the final position is on the table on issues Danny Williams was squabbling over. As the Toronto Star reports, Harper said on Friday:
"Politics is the art of the possible. You can't have 100 per cent of everything you want from someone else or some other government. Danny Williams made his point forcefully; it's time to move on to other issues."

Shut up and go away: the editor's reaction

From Russell Wangersky comes a clean dissection of the provincial government's attack this past week on former premier Brian Peckford:

It was a knee-jerk communications strategy, and it was a bad one at that, if the idea was to try and counteract the statements.

It just turned on the bright lights and lit up the issue on the national stage.

There was no reason even to react, unless the message you’re actually trying to send is not that Peckford was out to lunch, but instead that, in the New Newfoundland and Labrador, no one should expect to be allowed to comment on the emperor’s new clothes.

Perhaps the message was supposed to be, “If you disagree, we don’t want your input. Keep your mouth shut, even if you’re members of our own party.”

And maybe reacting so harshly to Peckford’s comments was just the easiest way to pointedly deliver that message to all the rest of us.

-srbp-

30 November 2007

The only principle is cash

What I said before and I said going in, this is about principles, but it's also about money as well. At the end of the day, the promise and the principle converts to cash for the bottom line for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Premier Danny Williams revealing the core of his political philosophy, November 30, 2007.

It's never really about principle with the current provincial administration.

It's always about money, specifically the "compensation" that can be received for some injury real or invented.

The best example of this approach is the 2005 federal transfer of $2.0 billion to the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador. As Danny Williams said in a scrum at the time, the major issue under discussion at the final, January meeting was the amount of the cash advance.

The principles supposedly underlying the original position taken by the Premier were abandoned in the final deal. As a result, the deal is worth a total of $2.0 billion and will never be worth any more than that.

It is no accident that the Premier used the word "compensation" frequently during his post-meeting scrum and also spoke of specific amounts of cash. One figure he cited several times was $10 billion.

This is an entirely artificial number, incidentally, based not on principles but an estimate prepared by university economist Wade Locke. He used certain assumptions which may prove to be accurate or which may, as in the case of the 2005 federal transfer payment, prove to fall well short of the actual values. This does not denigrate Locke's analysis but rather, people should consider that Williams is not talking principles; he isn't talking about the rules under which a system may operate.

Rather he is looking solely at an amount of cash, despite the fact that in actual performance a properly constructed Equalization regime, like a properly constructed offshore royalty regime could produce more revenue for the provincial treasury in actual performance than a single set of projections, based on certain assumptions, might suggest.

To give some idea of the extent to which Williams is focused entirely on cash, as opposed to principles, consider this response to a reporter's question during the Friday scrum:

At the end of the day, this translate down to the 10, $11 billion gap that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador would have received if he fulfilled his promise up to 2020. If you take 2006 when it was there 14 years and you divide that in to $10 billion, you get about $700 million a year. That's the magnitude of the commitment. If the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador was able to receive similar compensation in some form or another whether through that formula or something else, then we as a people have gotten that monetary benefit. If we disagree on certain principles, then we disagree, and we can't reach agreement, there's nothing we can do about it.

The entire issue is framed in the context of very specific amounts of money. It is most emphatically not based any principles, such as those underlying, for example, an equitable Equalization system or of the fiscal relationship between the federal government and the provinces.

This fixation on specific amounts of money may reflect the current administration's collective difficulty in appreciating the value of the 1985 Atlantic Accord and the principles it contains versus the entirely limited specific amount of cash attained in January 2005. The administration allowed the 1985 Accord to be amended unilaterally by the current federal administration and did not raise a single whimper about the violation of the terms of the 1985 memorandum of understanding. Instead, they focused on the cash irrespective of the dangerous precedent set by the amendment.

The most obvious weakness in this approach is that it gives the federal government an easy target to achieve. Since the provincial administration is concerned only with cash and given that there is a record of Williams settling for much less than originally sought - despite the bluster - Stephen Harper needs only to consider how small an amount he can get Williams to agree to. Williams has said yes to much less before and he is likely to do so again.

if Stephen Harper came to St. John's looking to get rid of the minor annoyance of Danny Williams' personal vendetta, he may just succeed. It certainly won't cost the Government of Canada anything close to $10 billion spread over 20 years to do it.

As Williams said:

What better place to put some green infrastructure in transporting some of that Lower Churchill power to the island of Newfoundland and Labrador in order to replace Seal Cove, Holyrood, generation.

The current estimated cost of that project?

$2.0 billion.

-srbp-

What will the meeting bring?

The meeting between Danny Williams and Stephen Harper later on Friday afternoon?

One of the possibilities is a rapprochement between the supposedly warring leaders.

The former, safely back in power with an overwhelming majority, may just signal peace is at hand. He's been known to do it before.

Tons of bluster and anger, followed by a sudden bout of kissing and hugging with the former "enemy".

That all might lead to some interesting developments in federal politics. Since the last cabinet appointments, the locals have been speculating wildly about the prospect that Tom Osborne and Jack Byrne - both turfed from the Williams cabinet - would actually be trying for a spot on the Stephen Harper team alongside their old friend Fabian Manning.

Osborne, you may recall, is the candidate whose political signage touts his - ummm - shall we say performance.

The story made the Globe this damp Friday, as Harper arrives in the province for a couple of days of politicking. You can find a link to the Globe article and some added comments over at nottawa.

One aspect of the story not covered by local media has been the prospect that some members of the provincial Tory caucus are getting somewhat frustrated with the ongoing feud and would like to see it settled. Human resources minister Shawn Skinner hinted as much, at least until he was reined in by his boss.

As Mark suggests at nottawa, though, perhaps someone ought to simply poke a microphone in the general direction of Osborne, Byrne and even Elizabeth Marshall to ask what they plan to do with themselves when the next federal election is called. The responses might well give some clues as to what will evolve out of the Danny and Steve meeting.

-srbp-

29 November 2007

Poll goosing: the VOCM online version

Submitted for your consideration:

Geoff Meeker's comments on anomalies in the vocm.com Question of the Day plus the two posts - here and here - from labradore that sparked Meeker's interest.

-srbp-

Steve and Danny meeting: more stuff

Well, you read it here already, but the rest of the world has picked up the harper and Danny Williams meeting story.

The Premier issued a short statement today confirming the meeting, although it will happen friday and not on Saturday as Bond heard it originally. "Premier Williams said his office confirmed the meeting two days ago," according to the statement.

Hmmm. No wonder the premier they were so testy about Brian Peckford's comments and had his plants suggesing some collusion between Peckford and the Prime Minister's Office. The 8th Floor blackberry drums knew about the Harper meeting before the rest of us did and likely assumed - in a paranoid way - that the two unlinked things were linked.

The Globe notes that provincial Tories have been trying to find ways to mend fences already, something that likely was at the heart of Shawn Skinner's recent comments. That is, before Danny yanked Skinner's chain and made the guy "apologize" and then publicly declare his commitment to the ABC nonsense.
-srbp-