JM 6 - Two Variants of the Interconnected Option

Volume 6 - 2 Variants

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The Teens and 40s #nlpoli

As the last instalment in our survey of birth rates, let’s take a look at the group 15 to 19 and the other end of the scale for statistics, women aged 40-44 at the time of the child’s birth.

The blue line is the number of births to mothers between ages 15 and 19.  From 810 births in 1991 down to 321 in 2010.  Note, though that the low point on the blue line is 2005 at 254.  Since then the number of births to mothers between 15 and 19 has risen steadily.  The rate is lower, though:  one in 32 in 1991 compared to one in 46 in 2010.

The numbers of babies born to women between 40 and 45 remains relatively very low.  Still, it has doubled in the past two decades from the 52 births in 1991 to the 100 that occurred in 2010.

The red line is the births for mothers aged 35 to 39.  It’s there for comparison.  In 1991, women in their late 30s gave birth to 387 babies.  That is just less than half the number of children born to mothers 19 and under.  Two decades later the teenagers are not having as many babies and the older women are having more.  Notice, however, that the 2010 moms  in the 35 to 39 category still were not having as many babies as the teenagers 20 years earlier.

The West Wing: the Stackhouse Filibuster #nlpoli

 

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The Dam Filibuster - Mr. Smith goes to Washington #nlpoli

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The 30-Something Birth Rates #nlpoli

[Note: This is a revised version of the original post.  The earlier one  was based on the wrong tables]

The 2007 provincial government bounty on live births appears to have had little impact on trends in birth rates among the 20-somethings in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The same is true for the 30-somethings.

The 20-Something Birth Rates #nlpoli

As we told you a couple of weeks ago, it doesn’t look like the provincial government’s policy of paying cash for live births produced any improvement in the birthrate in the province except for the year they announced the bonus cash.

When you look at the birth rate by age of mother some other interesting things appear.

Let’s start with the 20-somethings.  Note:  this is a revised version of the post.  The original post was based on the wrong Statistics Canada tables.

Your future is in their hands: Filibuster edition #nlpoli #scoutsdishonour

Government House Leader @King_Darin  doesn't think the standard of debate during the current filibuster over the Muskrat Falls bills comes up to his high standards.

Maybe he's right.

Here's King's fellow Conservative Steve Kent in a picture taken in the House during debate last night.  Kent  was tweeting the crap out of his claim than another member had "taken the Lord's name in vain."  He snapped this picture, tweeted it and then disappeared it faster than a ministerial briefing note under Bill 29.

If Kent was sincerely upset about the remark he should have raised a question of privilege in the House.  Instead, he went to Twitter to fart around and generally make a mockery of the legislature.

Well, Kent wasn't quick enough, as it seems:

The Internet never forgets.

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h/t to IP Freely

JM 7 - Bill 61: a relapse of the free market society #nlpoli

Bill 61 Relapse

Perspective #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale likes to pretend that the critics haven’t been able to find a problem with Muskrat Falls.

Well, that’s simply not true. 

They’ve found tons of problems with the project that Kathy Dunderdale is finishing on behalf of Danny Williams.  Dunderdale either doesn’t understand the project at all on any level,  has deluded herself into believing what she says is true even when it obviously isn’t (the PUB loves Muskrat Falls!),  or she just doesn’t give a rat’s bollocks about anything. 

That’s pretty much what it comes down to.  Take your pick but that’s it:  one of those three

Regardless of any of that, though, you can be assured of one thing.  Muskrat Falls is not a very good idea.  It is not the lowest cost option for taxpayers. 

Absolutely. 

Without question. 

Not the lowest cost option.

A closed market #nlpoli

The provincial Conservatives will guarantee that taxpayers in Newfoundland and Labrador will be forced to pay for Muskrat Falls no matter what happens to oil prices or with new technology.  They are closing the electrical markets on the island portion of the province so that consumers and businesses in Newfoundland can only buy electricity from Nalcor.

Under  changes to the Electrical Power Control Act, 1994 currently being debated in the House of Assembly, the same provincial Conservatives who fought for years for open access to markets outside the province will close the electricity markets on the island portion of the province to competition.

Section 14.1 (1) of the new bill allows that Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro – a Nalcor subsidiary – will have the exclusive right to “supply, distribute and sell electrical power or energy to a retailer or industrial customer in the province.”

Retailers or industrial customers will only be allowed to purchase electrical power or energy from NL Hydro.  Another clause of the bill prohibits companies from developing electrical power on their own land for their own use.

Anticlimax #nlpoli

So it turns out the provincial government is going to build the Muskrat Falls project.

There’s a total shock.

The one thing that came screaming out of Monday night’s extravaganza was the desperate intensity of it all.  The longer the thing has dragged on the more extreme the rhetoric has become, the grander the claim of spectacle, and the shorter the relevance of the language to what is going on in the province.

If they say it often enough, the government and its backers might just believe half of it.

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Dundercast tonight #nlpoli

The Premier will announce something this evening at 6 PM.

If she announces that cabinet has already sanctioned the project, no one will be surprised.

If she announces that the project is already sanctioned, then the odds rocket up that this post from a couple of weeks ago will become the big story of the coming weeks and months. 

Think of the post as a bit premature, that’s all.

Tom Marshall already confirmed he’s leaving.

And they are talking cuts and layoffs again.

When will she go?

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Where the Money Comes From #nlpoli

Just to put the provincial government budget in perspective, here are the top five sources of cash that come into the treasury from what are considered the province’s own sources.

This table is based on the Estimates for Budget 2012.  Oil royalties are the major source of revenue by quite a margin.  They make up 40% of the province;’s own revenues.

All federal revenues added up to about $600 million in the 2012 Estimates.  If you listed the revenue sources by dollar amount, federal revenues would go into the list below right after corporate income tax.

The last column in the table indicates whether the revenue is up or down in the latest forecast compared to the original budget.

Provincial Sources

Source	Share of Provincial	Up or Down
Oil Royalties	40	D
Personal Income Tax	17	U
Retail Sales Tax	16	U
Corporate Income Tax	13	D
Mining Royalties	9	D

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$#*! Jerome says, in living colour version #nlpoli

With a hat tip to IP Freely.

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A Crisis. Or Not. #nlpoli

“Muskrat Falls is a project that will not impact net debt by a single dollar,” finance minister Tom Marshall said in a provincial government news release.

Unfortunately for taxpayers, they won’t pay the net debt.  That’s an accountant’s calculation of what the provincial government owes less any assets they could theoretically sell off if they had to clew up business in a hurry. 

What taxpayers will have to contend with is the total liabilities and Tom plans to make those liabilities get a whole lot bigger than they are today.  On the day that Tom Marshall predicted that his current budget will have a deficit three times what he forecast in the spring, Marshall also forecast billions more in borrowing to pay for Muskrat Falls and to pay for the government’s day-to-day expenses.

You’d think that a finance minister would understand that. 

Evidently, Tom Marshall doesn’t.

Either that or he thinks the rest of us are so stupid that they would accept his ridiculous comments as if they were true.

Revenue Streams and Not-so-Captive Markets #nlpoli

Natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy was in an exceptionally candid mood in the House of Assembly on Tuesday.

He explained that under legislation that will pass before Christmas,  Nalcor would be setting electricity rates for industrial users in Labrador.

Mr. Speaker, we need a guaranteed revenue stream in order to assure the bond rating agencies and the federal government that there is going to be monies to satisfy the requirements of paying the project. It is as simple as that. So, therefore, there has to be a restricted role of the PUB.

The interesting thing, though, is that Jerome couldn’t explain later on during debate in the House how the policy for Labrador would guarantee a revenue stream when the whole idea was to compete to Quebec so they couldn’t undercut Nalcor on price.

Combine the two of them, [generation, set by Nalcor,  and transmission, set by the PUB] …, and that is where we will come up then with the approximately $56 or $57 [per megawatt hour]  rate that will be charged. Again, it is very competitive and comparative to Quebec. However, if there is a process where Quebec either drops their rate to try to get business or increases their rate, Mr. Speaker, there will be a review mechanism in place whereby that can also be done by the minister.

The guaranteed revenue stream is actually somewhere other than in the industrial rates.  The guaranteed revenue stream is coming from the consumers on the island. 

Some people might be getting confused on how all the prices compare, what with the talk of megawatt hours and kilowatt hours.  Well,  industrial users in Labrador will be paying 5.6 or 5.7 cents per kilowatt hour for electricity that will come from Churchill Falls and from Muskrat Falls.  Consumers on the island will pay a blended price for electricity that includes Muskrat Falls electricity at 20 cents per kilowatt hour according to the most recent estimate Kennedy gave the House.

To switch to megawatt hours, for a second, that would be $56 per megawatt hour for industrial consumers.  Muskrat Falls delivered at Soldier’s Pond would be $200 per megawatt hour.

 

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Revenue Streams: Sure Thing edition #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale on where the money will come from to pay for Muskrat Falls, from the House Assembly on Monday:

So, unless there is some catastrophe in Newfoundland and Labrador and everybody decides not to pay their light bills, Mr. Speaker, in that circumstance we might lose the generation facility. I cannot imagine who will buy it with nobody paying their light bills, Mr. Speaker.

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$#*! the Premier says: PUB review edition #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale on the PUB and its review of Muskrat Falls (November 21, 2012):

Mr. Speaker, when the PUB produced its report it concurred with Nalcor – and it is in the executive summary right in the front so you might want to read it. It concurred with Nalcor and MHI that based on Decision Gate 2 numbers that we did need the power and indeed it was the least-cost alternative. [Muskrat Falls]

Premier Kathy Dunderdale on the PUB and its review of Muskrat Falls [December 11, 2012]

We did try to bring this project under the scrutiny of the PUB. Over nine months and over $2 million later, they would not give us a recommendation.

Incidentally, what the Premier said on December 11 is correct.

What she said on November 21 is just dead wrong.

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$#*! Jerome Says: federal loan guarantee not firmly in place yet #nlpoli

In the House of Assembly on Tuesday, natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy was pretty clear about the sanction process:

“What we have done … [is ] we have slowed down the process in terms of the sanction.”

Asked about slowing down the sanction process on Wednesday, natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy told the House of Assembly:

“I could be wrong; I do not remember saying anything about slowing down the process.”

Interesting.  And an Interesting choice of words.

Still Ready for a Better Tomorrow #nlpoli

Natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy on the financial typhoon of glorious benefits he and his colleagues are about to unleash via called Muskrat Falls:

The Province will make a lot of money off this project at some future point in order to not only to pay for the project but to pay for social programs and to allow us to transition from a non-renewable resource economy to a renewable resource economy. [Emphasis added]

We are always ready for a better tomorrow, Jerome.  Too bad no one can tell us when that day will come.

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