20 January 2011

Ontario flush with electricity

And so much for that market for Lower Churchill power…

Ontario residents were bemused to discover that on New Year’s Day 2011, on average, they were paid to use electricity.

If that seemed unusual – and it is – it’s only the start.

Within the next two years, the conditions that produced the bonus New Year’s power could crop up about one day in every seven, according to an analysis by the agency that runs Ontario’s power market.

A big reason: about 5,000 megawatts of wind powered generation is due to be connected to the Ontario grid in the next few years, producing surges of power that are more than the province needs.

via Toronto Star

- srbp -

20 comments:

Ursula said...

If we can't sell the power generated by Muskrat Falls ,then I guess we will just have to "Give it away".....

Our governments seem to have a "penchant" for doing just that .

Wm. Murphy said...

Did anyone ever say that Lower Churchill power was destined for Ontario?

If so, show us

Edward Hollett said...

Did you really mean to ask me if Danny and his buddies ever wanted to sell power from the Lower Churchill to Ontario?

I just want to make sure that was your clear and unmistakable question.

Wm. Murphy said...

Calm down Eddie, sounds like you are ready to pounce...I am talking about the recent "deal" with Emira.

Wm. Murphy said...

so now that you answered that question...what was your point in referencing the Toronto Star article?....besides the natterings of negativism, that is

Edward Hollett said...

And just to be really clear again:

now that you realise how stunned your first question was, you are - again - daring me to show you where Danny and his buddies said they were willing to sell their power from the Lower Churchill to Ontario...

right?

Like you think it doesn't exist.

roflmao.

Take this to Yuk Yuks, man. You have this unique reverse Don Rickles act that could be making millions laugh somewhere. Your talent for setting fire to your own underwear is just wasted around here.

What was that other winner of yours? Oh yes, You didn't think government could actually set government salaries.

roflmao again.

And then you insisted danny was going to run again and win a third majority.

Oh God.

I gotta stop. This is just too friggin' funny. I can hardly see to type.

No wonder you write under a fake name.

roars with more laughter....

Everett said...

There's another article in the Toronto Star on Jan 11 that says "The current surplus won’t last. Ontario is to close its remaining 4,500 megawatts of coal-fired power by 2014. At the Pickering B nuclear plant, another 2,000 megawatts are nearing the end. And units at the Darlington and Bruce nuclear plants will undergo lengthy refurbishments."

http://www.1310news.com/news/local/article/167706--ontario-hydro-paying-neighbours-to-take-surplus-energy

I think that more than offsets the 5000 megawatts to be generated by wind.

Ursula said...

@Murphy :

tuh May toe ---- tuh MAT oh ,

Emira ------------ Emera !

Ah , lets call the whole thing off .

Edward Hollett said...

That link you gave isn't from the Toronto Star, Everett. It's a radio station's paraphrase of what appears to be an article that appeared in the Citizen.

But to get to the bigger point:

1. There's a lot more to the story than just that bit you cited: all jurisdictions like Ontario are looking ahead to their energy needs and looking to replace and/or expand supply to meet anticipated demand.

2. Flowing from that, no one should assume that this is some sort of situation which is inevitably turning in NL's favour nor should anyone think that the Lower Churchill is the only game in town.

3. LC isn't even the most cost-effective or lowest priced or "best undeveloped" hydro project anywhere. It's actually quite far from American markets and even Ontario is a bit of a stretch. That means the power could be very costly to get to market (wheeling charges etc)

4. Add on top of that the cost of building the project and financing it. Again, pretty expensive. Based on the info Dunderdale put out thyere, the LC as currently proposed is actually not competitive in the marketplace at all.

Period.

And look at it this way: after five solid years of trying to interest every purchaser from Quebec to Ontario to Rhode Island, Nalcor could not find one single customer for LC power.

Not one.

NLers would be forced to buy it and the crowd in Nova Scotia would be getting a massive give-away.

But Muskrat Falls power simply doesn't compete in the marketplace in Ontario, Quebec or anywhere in the US in the foreseeable future.

Lonenewfwolf said...

i heard today the icelandic people are gonna try and either sue or charge the ceos, bankers, and gov't hacks who set them up for bankruptcy. that might set an interesting precedent for our case here...we should be watching that one. our own situation is shaping up to resemble it.

about ontario. why doesn't someone ask gerry shortall, i hear he knows a few old boys up that way.

Edward Hollett said...

Presumably they were talking about suing the Icelanders who screwed them because you do realise that foreigners didn't cause Iceland's problems: Icelanders did.

Everett said...

Ontario has its own problems with Hydro, as per the Globe and Mail.

Nov 16 - this article says that Ontario's rates increased 20% in the last year

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario/rebound-in-corporate-tax-revenue-reduces-ontario-deficit/article1801618/

Nov 23 - article says govt is underestimating hydro bill increases.
"The McGuinty government is low-balling the cost of modernizing Ontario’s fleet of nuclear reactors, critics say, calling into question its own projection that consumers’ hydro bills will double by 2030.

The government pegs the cost of building two new reactors and refurbishing 10 existing units at $33-billion in its long-term energy plan released on Tuesday. But opposition members and industry observers said the figure is not realistic. For starters, they said, the government shelved a deal to build two reactors last year, citing the exorbitant price tag of $26-billion. As well, they said, the refit of two mothballed reactors at the Bruce Power nuclear station on Lake Huron is now likely to be $4.8-billion, $2-billion more than the original estimate."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/hydro-bills-to-double-by-2030-as-ontario-invests-in-greener-power/article1810440/

Edward Hollett said...

And your point is what?

Everett said...

Ed, my point is that Ontario is not exactly flush with electricity as you say. They have nuclear sources that need exorbitantly expensive refurbishing; they have other sources that will be discontinued; & they expect demand to increase as they pull out of the recession.

Edward Hollett said...

So you are claiming that the Star article is wrong? You should e-mail them or comment on their story because what I did here was link to someone else's story.

It illustrates the wider point I noted in the comment at 21:36. So if you want to tackle my argument, that's the one you should be tackling.

As I said and as I have been saying all along, Ontario - like all jurisdictions - is refurbishing and replacing capacity and, where necessary adding new capacity. Demand will increase but that doesn't mean they will wind up in a complete jam.

The LC has to be seen in that wider context. There's a reason the LC isn't under construction today and that's because the markets aren't there., Inf act it is quite striking that after five years of intense effort and trying every markets from Quebec to Ontario to Zrhode Island the current provincial government could not find a single export customer for the Lower Churchill.

Not one.

I suspect cost has pretty much all to do with it. The LC is actually not cost-competitive.

Wm. Murphy said...

Good morning Eddie.... I hope you had a restful sleep because you were ratcheted up last night.
You should stop going off on tangents and relax a bit. Are you stressed and out of sorts?

I simply asked was the Emera deal tied to shipping power to Ontario? I realize that previous routes through Quebec had the LC power moving to Ontario, but I simply asked was the current transmission model that is being discussed, had Ontario on the radar?
I don't think it does. If it does, then show me that Emera plans to sell the power to Ontario.
That's all Ed. If it does then you have answered my question. If you can't show me that Emera plans to ship to Ontario then it goes back to why you would even write the post in the first place.

Deep Breaths Eddie

Edward Hollett said...

Murph:

You asked, and I quote "Did anyone ever say that Lower Churchill power was destined for Ontario?"

Not Emera.

Not the only bits of the proposed Emera deal announced so far or any other limit or qualification.

Anyone who knows anything at all about the project would know that since 2003 for sure the answer to that question is yes: Williams and company have wanted to sell power to Ontario and continue to plan for an LC project with an intertie back to CF so they can do just that if and when the chance occurs.

And despite that being common knowledge - widely discussed here and elsewhere and readily available on the Internet to anyone who wants to go look - you have asked the question twice.

Now on the third try, you have tried to change the question AND claim that you didn't change it.

Get lost, Murph. You are wasting everyone's time.

Wm. Murphy said...

And there we have it....Ed is still torqued up after a nights sleep.

Yes Ed that was my question...apologies for not being specific concerning Emera.I thought the question was explanatory under the assumption that I meant Emera in my question. Relax.

Since the current "arrangement" has nothing to do with sending power to Ontario....why reference the Toronto Star article.
Answer that and I will get lost

Edward Hollett said...

Murph:

Get lost.

Seriously.

Take your shit and peddle it somewhere else.

The current plan has surplus power that is available - go check the announcements and other comments for yourself - to anywhere, including Ontario. No markets have been ruled out, not even Quebec, ultimately.

This point is generally known. The comments are there for all to check. I have no intention of going on a fool's errand for someone who persists in playing at the fool.

Now, let me make this abundantly clear:

Get lost.

And in case you didn't get the point the first three times I've said:

Get lost.

Wm. Murphy said...

No markets have been ruled out

Is that so?