The Fruits of a Poisonous Shrub #nlpoli

Senator Fabian Manning says that the 2008 Anything but Conservative campaign is stilling hurting the province in dealing with the federal government.

“There's no doubt in my mind that the ABC campaign,”  Manning told CBC’s Fisheries Broadcast,” [that] we pay a price for that, and people can shrug it off and say, 'That's just an excuse,' but I've been around this game too long now to not know that without a voice here at the table we are at a major disadvantage." [via CBC]

The disadvantage Manning referred to was the lack of a regional minister in the current cabinet who represents a riding in Newfoundland and Labrador. Some people might be tempted to dismiss Manning’s comments at sour grapes. After all, the ABC campaign cost Manning not only his seat in the House but also his chance for a seat in cabinet.

On that point, though, Manning is right. The regional minister is a key player in Ottawa and the province has undoubtedly suffered to one degree another by not having such an influential voice at the federal cabinet table.

ROFLMAO @ ABC

Over at Geoff Meeker's blog, his post on a supposed leak from inside the Provincial Conservative caucus has brought out a self-described chauvinist doing as any imitator of Nicholas Chauvin might do.

It can be pretty funny stuff if you just read what's on the page. 

Here's a summary of the discussion thus far:

According to PW, before the PM goes to see the GG, ODP needs to define ABC PDQ so things aren't FUBAR because the people of NL will not know how to X their ballot in the GE in OCT unless they hear HMV, likely on CBC, NTV, VOCM or for VIPs via TXT or PIN on RIM.

The ABC, you may recall, is supposed to KO SH and the CPC everywhere in CDA from NL to BC because they were NSF on the BP to ODP's L2S in the 06 GE. There's been no DND in HVGB or new HMP in HG, represented in the HOA by the AG.

Before now, ODP DW and SH were BFF.

ABC would also KO LH, the CPC MDFO in the GOC, who represents SJSMP in the HOC, and keep him out of the PCO in NCR but right now he is MIA.

But it's not just an ABC, according to PW who plugs his blog, PAP, in his comments on GM's MOM. 

It's ABC...D.

And worse than that PC MHAs will be PO'ed at voting for WN, SC, SA and other LPC ESP JF, who was a CM for BT and RG when they were ODP before DW.

But JH of the NDP in SJE is OK with ODP DW.

The only letter missing thus far in PW's alphabet folly "Z ", but undoubtedly someone is working on that rogue letter and will send it along ASAP.

At this point, everyone is likely LOL and well they should be WRT the whole ABC/FF thing.

MW of ON can rest easy, though.

You don't need a BA, MA or PHD from MUN to spot the BS of PW and the FF.

Now YHE-S must go to the ER and see a GP because this whole thing is causing MEGO.

K?

-srbp-

ABC? Meet Elections Canada

Here are a few issues that appear to have been left unexplored for this election campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador:

1. The Canada Elections Act provides restrictions on advertising by third parties.  In this case, the Provincial Conservative Party counts as a third party.  There are caps, indexed for inflation. There's an excellent summary from Elections Canada as well as a handbook.

2.  A third party must apply to Elections Canada and be registered once it has incurred advertising expenses of more than $500. the ABC website would exceed that requirement if assessed at fair market rates for website design.

3.  "A third party may not be registered under a name that, in the opinion of the Chief Electoral Officer, is likely to be confused with the name of a candidate, registered party, registered third party or eligible party."

-  Progressive Conservative Association of Newfoundland and Labrador

-  Conservative Party of Canada

-  Progressive Canadian Party.

Go figure if that would count as confusing.

4.  As of 2130 hours Newfoundland time on 15 September, the PC Association of Newfoundland and Labrador is not listed on the Elections Canada website as a registered  third party. [dead link.  Go here and click on "Registered Third Parties"]

Update:  Someone over at the Provincial Conservative Party office got on the ball and registered the "ABC Campaign" as a third party under the Canada Elections Act. Note the effective date:  September 16.  It's not like this thing hasn't been on the go since October 2006 or anything.

Let's wander back through the list of registered third parties and see who was more on the ball than the ABC crew:

The first name on the list (as of 16 September at 2200) would be the Provincial Conservative party, doing political business as ABC.  Then there is Kevin Grandia, an environmental activist.  He registered on September 9.  Next comes Les sans-chemise. They registered on the 8th.

After that came Stephen Harper's old palls at the National Citizens Coalition (September 10) and the Professional Institute of the Public Service on September 13.

For those who don't know, John Babb is the president of the Provincial Conservative Party, in whose name the domain for the ABC website is registered.

No thanks necessary, John.  Your humble e-scribbler is happy he got the thing legally squared away.

-srbp-

Sure ABC isn't partisan

A faithful pitcher plant called one of the radio call in shows today continuing the My ABC claim. 

That is, the whole Danny Williams ABC Family Feud is not partisan and not all about Danny Williams.  It's a movement for the people by the people.

There you have it.

But if that's the case and ABC is not a partisan thing, then someone needs to explain why the registered agent for the "campaign" is the president of the Provincial Conservative party and the address listed for it with Elections Canada is the address for the Provincial Conservative party's treasurer and the domain is registered by the Provincial Conservative party with the party's executive director listed as the contact?

Truth is, ABC isn't run by nor is it about the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Heck, truth is it can't even claim to be speaking on behalf of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Truth is ABC isn't anything but (Provincial) Conservative.

-srbp-

Replay 2008 round-up

1.  To start, a recommendation: go check nottawa's latest jab at the whole ABC thing.  He's got a thought about a missing quote that's worth pondering.

2. Has anyone noticed the morphing messages from the ABC corner? First there was the shifting goal - no longer about the goose egg;  now just about "the principle", what with the polls showing that Danny Williams' ABC was producing such a devastating effect on polls not just in this province but across Canada. That just makes it easy to claim victory even when Fabian Manning heads back to Ottawa, even though the goal was always to deliver a goose egg to the Conservatives.

BTW, evidently someone forgot to tell Jerome Kennedy that the goal had changed in time for Kennedy's appearance on Night Line. He was in full flight on a local open line show when he blurted out the goose egg line.  yes, we know Jerome.  It's hard to stop on a dime and shift directions.

Now it's the My ABC.  In response to accusations from the federal Conservatives that Danny Williams and his team are twisting arms and threatening people, the Provincial Conservatives are deploying their troops - Jerome was a lead this week - to insist that Danny had nothing to do with anything, the whole campaign is their campaign.  Nice marketing touch but highly unconvincing given that the guy came up with the idea, has been pushing it relentlessly, sent e-mails to make sure everyone in his caucus was on side and has bitchslapped cabinet ministers who dared question the wisdom of ABC publicly.

Nope.  No.  Nosirreee Bob.  No intimidation there.

3.  Speaking of Shawn Skinner, word is the minister made to humiliate himself publicly for daring to go off the message track is knocking doors for Siobhan Coady in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Don't worry Shawn; there's a cabinet shuffle soon.

4.  Decisions, decisions. The drums along the highway running through Avalon make it sound like some Liberals are hard pressed in their choices.  As much as they want to vote for Liberal Scott Andrews, they'd have more fun sending Fabe back to Ottawa just to rub Danny's nose in it. Recommendation:  Don't vote for anyone who calls the province "NewfoundlandLabrador".

5.  Meanwhile, in St. John's East, some voters are wondering if they couldn't score a double play on one vote:  elect Westcott.  That would likely make the Premier's head explode while at the same time setting everything up for Westcott to tackle Harper, as he inevitably would.

6.  At least one mayor is now sending out begging letters to Ottawa. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  Well, maybe that or just another guy looking to horn in on somebody else's spotlight. 

7.  Takes one to know one.  Memorial University political science professor Michael Temelini on Craig Westcott's candidacy: ""Is the real Craig Westcott the one who was critical of Stephen Harper, or is it one who seems to be now abandoning all of his critical faculties and toadying up to the prime minister?" What happened to university professors who tried to be analytical in their comments instead of taking sides in a partisan fight?

 

-srbp-

"A" but "C" except before seal

Danny Williams may like to claim Stephen Harper is a kitten-eating lizard from outer space but when push came to shove last week, Williams gave up the chance to campaign against a key Harper minister in Nova Scotia.

Williams chief publicity agent responded via Blackberry (that's pretty much how she deals with everyone, apparently) to a Green Party request telling them that Williams wouldn't campaign with Elizabeth May against Peter MacKay "in large part due" to the Green Party stance on the seal hunt.

Huh? What about getting rid of Stephen Harper? What about spreading the word about how Steve and his minions will destroy the country? 

Geez, from the amount of time spent discussing this ABC Family Feud thingy you'd believe it trumped just about anything else.

Apparently, not.

Apparently, seal-bashing is that much more important than opposing pure evil. 

Or largely more important.

Or maybe the real reason is less about seals and more about the politics of the whole Family Feud.

Firstly, the ABC campaign is really just a family affair;  it's a gripe one bunch of Conservatives have about another bunch.

Secondly, it's a negative thing.  As such, the rhetoric will centre on why people should vote against one federal party but there is absolutely nothing in it to explain what people should vote for.

Thirdly, and related to that, Danny Williams would have a hard time justifying spending time on the ground campaigning for one federal candidate against another federal candidate.  There's an unwritten rule in Canadian politics that federal politicians and parties don't inject themselves directly in a federal campaign and vice versa.  If Danny Williams takes to the campaign trail actively working against a federal party, he'd be inviting retaliation the next time he goes to the polls.

That's no small issue, especially in a small province like Newfoundland and Labrador. Having screwed over the federal Liberals and now the federal Conservatives, Williams would be running a huge political gamble that they wouldn't look for some payback in 2011 or whenever Williams calls a vote again.

And make no mistake:  it wouldn't be about punishing either the province as a whole or the party Williams leads. Any intervention by federal parties would every bit as personal as Williams' attacks.  There's a good reason why Williams pulled back from focusing on Fabian Manning, the only incumbent Conservative and the one most likely to hang on to his seat.

Fourthly, the unwillingness to campaign actively for a candidate can be traced back to the polls. Initial polls show that after two years of ABC rhetoric 30-odd percent of voters in Newfoundland and Labrador intend to vote for the federal Conservatives in this election.

As much as some people would like you to believe the two parties are completely different, they aren't.  That 30-odd percent is entirely made up of the core that in provincial elections votes with the Provincial Conservatives.  Depending on which poll you want to look at, that percentage makes up a half or three quarters of Williams' core vote. If those people are immune to his ministrations at the outset, the only way to suppress them or swing them would be with a campaign that ultimately would have runs the risk of opening up severe cracks within Williams' own party.

The federal Conservatives have already pressed on that sore spot several times.  Williams himself gave some credence to it when he responded to a claim by Loyola Hearn about fissures in the provincial Tory caucus by demanding loyalty declarations from his 43 caucus mates.  Other politicians would have sloughed off the Hearn claim.  Williams' actions left the clear impression there was a concern over caucus solidarity.

Think about it for a second. Danny Williams already redefined the objectives for his ABC campaign and he did so - fairly obviously - in the face of public opinion polls that shows he likely won't even be able to deliver a goose egg to the Conservatives in his own province, as he consistently used to claim as the goal.  If he is unlikely to deliver a goose egg in his own province, any effort to unseat incumbent Conservatives elsewhere in the country would only serve to weaken his political position later on. Better to haul back now than have to face the jibes and taunts later on.

And look, fifthly, it's not like Williams ever considered Elizabeth May important enough to bother with before.  She may be a national party leader in the leaders' debate but Danny didn't send her a begging letter.  Odds were against him hitting the doorsteps on her behalf now.

If not of that was persuasive, there's a sixth good reason why Danny Williams won't be spending much time on the hustings outside Newfoundland and Labrador. There are major issues on the public agenda right now in Newfoundland and Labrador. Huge ones.  Ones that typically turn up at the top of polls about what weighs on voters' minds.  There is simply no political value for Danny Williams to spend four or five weeks knocking doors and giving speeches across the country when the job he was elected to door appears to be left untended. As much as it might be possible to run the place and campaign simultaneously, the public perception  - especially in light of the polls and the likelihood of success - make that an even more risky venture than any of the others alone.

Put it together in a package and the whole idea of an active ABC campaign just becomes too dangerous a political proposition.

So Danny won't help Elizabeth May, in large part due to the seal hunt.

If that helps you sleep at night, go ahead and believe it.

-srbp-

Familiar tunes amid the Shifting Balance of Power #nlpoli

All the talk the past week or so about negotiations between the crowd in Confederation Building and the crowd in Ottawa  brought out the conventional wisdom about premiers using fights with the feds for political purposes.

The coincidence of a talk on nationalism the week before linked the two ideas together neatly for some people. Kathy Dunderdale was having a row with Ottawa, possibly to boost her polling and maybe as a show of nationalist fervour that we all love.

Yeah, maybe that’s true.

And then again, maybe it just isn’t.

An ominous choice of words on ABC

“This is the election that could make and break relations between Newfoundland and Canada forever.”

- John Babb, president of the Provincial Conservative party,

Registered representative of the ABC campaign

VOCM Backtalk, Friday, August 29, 2008

 

Maybe the real objective of the ABC isn't what people claim it is. After all, it apparently isn't about giving the Harper crew a goose egg, at least if we can believe the ABC movement's leader, one Danny Williams.

Nope.

Maybe there's reason to ask Mr. Babb, the registered representative of the campaign with Elections Canada, just exactly what he meant by those words.

-srbp-

 

 

 

 

Who got ABC cash?

The blood feud between Danny Williams and Stephen Harper may have netted Danny Williams something for the $81,000 his ABC campaign reportedly spent, but there’s no way of knowing at this point who really got all that cash.

Based on information contained  on the Elections Canada website, the companies listed as receiving disbursements from Williams’ ABC campaign don’t appear to exist.

On September 1, the Provincial Conservatives paid a company listed as “intonic.ca” $244 for something labelled as “website.”

intonic.ca gets a 404 page in response if you try to find its website using the logical domain.  An Internet search likewise netted zip-olla for a company called “intonic” let alone one that did anything related to web sites.

Another company – listed as The Inbox Factory – received over $24,000 for something called “TV/Newspaper”.

Try and find a company called Inbox Factory through a simple Internet search. A company that can co-ordinate national print and television advertising would likely be established enough to have garnered even a mention on the Internet.

Inbox Factory?

Nada.

Promoworks is a little different.

There is a Canadian company called Promoworks Inc.  It does custom geegaws for companies in the Vancouver area. There’s a similarly named company in Maryland that does the same sort of thing.

But a company that does  - apparently – media planning, superboard design and the media buy to go with it?

Not a sign.

More than $56,000 spent by ABC went to “Promoworks Inc.”.

Try and find any trace of that company on line.

This one is going to take some digging, evidently.

Yep.

None of this should come as a surprise though.  The Family Feud got off to a bad start, not realising they even had to register as a third party player and report their expenses.  Not realising that is until someone pointed it out to them.

Maybe people could ask John Babb, the registered agent for the Feud. He’s the guy who said:

“This is the election that could make and break relations between Newfoundland and Canada forever.”

There might be a bunch of good reasons to ask Babb a few questions about that whole campaign starting with that statement he made right at the start.

-srbp-

The Sunday scuttlebutt

If the rumours aren't worth following then the truth is sometimes much stranger than fiction.

1.   Loyola Sullivan is now reportedly out of the country and not taking Harper's phone calls. The only thing funnier than rumours are Connie candidate travails are the ones about the Dipper hunts. 

2.   Former newspaper editor (his last horse died under him twice)  Ryan Cleary is looking for the NDP nod in St. John's South Mount Pearl.  This could make the South interesting if for no other reason than Cleary would likely quickly start whining as reporters started giving him a dose of the stuff he's dished out.  The guy's shown himself to have a thin skin. 

3.  A close reading of the Danny Williams e-mail from earlier the week would make you think that all the Provincial Conservatives had to do was state their support for the government ABC campaign without any obligation to campaign for anybody but Conservatives.  That pretty much clinches it:  there is such dissension within caucus that even the Premier couldn't force his colleagues to join the fratricidal policy without risking his own political neck.

4.  Even if we aren't going to see natural resources spokesperson Kathy Dudnerdale - a great typo from voice of the cabinet minister last week - knocking doors for Walter Noel, savvy federal Liberal fundraisers have it covered.

Some were reportedly thinking of sending donation requests to the 44 Provincial Conservatives in the House of Assembly with a promise to send a copy of the tax receipt to the Premier as proof they've acted on their commitment to ABC. 

If the Tories would send over their membership list, the Liberals will probably ensure everyone one of the Provincial Conservatives is on side.

5.  Liberal Siobhan Coady will be taking full advantage of the ABC this time out, turning for the third time running to a connected advertising firm to look after her campaign needs. Idea Factory has been the source of provincial Tory campaign advertising for a while now and recently added former Mike Harris and Danny Williams government staffer Carolyn Chaplin to its stable of considerable talent.

6.  Some Ottawa political staffers got a chuckle out of Danny Williams' reference to the Blue Shaft, given that it's also the nick-name of a fairly popular sexual device. They got a bigger chuckle out of the Harper "Daddy" ads but for a different reason. Some are watching to see if bears pop up next in the Connie ad campaign. 

7.  From the "Separated at Birth" file, both Danny Williams and Stephen Harper said this week they expect to be on the receiving end of vicious personal attacks during the upcoming campaign. Okay, those of you keeping track of how much these two are alike just ran out of paper.  Switch to a computer where the pixels are free and the space for storing data is almost endless.

8.  Speaking of vicious personal attacks, surely Provincial Conservative cabinet minister John Hickey - a man who's campaigned for the federal Conservatives at least once - is thinking of suing outgoing fish minister Loyola Hearn for defamation.  In a recent interview, Hearn called Hickey an "idiot". 

Hickey has a lawsuit against former Premier Roger Grimes for things Danny Williams said Grimes said but apparently didn't.  Confused?  So was Hickey.  But if you sued over something someone didn't say, surely you'd be fast off the litigious mark for a pretty obvious insult hurled straight at you, for the whole world to read.

And where is that lawsuit?  Likely right next to the contract with federal government to pave the Trans Labrador Highway.

9.  Provincial Conservative Cynthia Downey ran for the federal Conservatives in the last election, once the Provincial Conservatives decided to wholeheartedly endorse their federal brethren.  For her troubles, Downey found her campaign wrapped up in the Old In-Out In-Out scheme (scam?).

Fast forward to 2008 and with her provincial leader on the Family Feud warpath, Downey is dutifully joining in, savaging the federal Conservatives for doing things like booting people out of the country after their refugee applications have been rejected.

Check the party platform Downey back last time on deportations.

Right there in black and white: "rapid execution" of deportation orders.

And on a related matter, help and old e-scribbler out here:  who used to call the Great Oracle of the Valley's talk shows about the Portnoys?

10.  And they have it on tape, most likely. How many more quotes like this are out there?

"I think Atlantic Canadians are going to be very pleasantly surprised and pleased with the performance of Mr. Harper," said Williams.

The provincial aspect of the last federal election campaign was rather curious, especially considering that the version offered in the CBC summary linked here isn't quite in keeping with events as they unfolded. 

Williams may have kept a relatively low profile for example, but his cabinet and caucus were out there flogging CAA:  Connie Above All.  And Jack Layton?  Santa Jack promised everything the Premier desired;  Santa Steve promised to talk about it.

Steve got the Provincial Conservative support.

Yeah, and this whole ABC thing isn't a Family Feud.

-srbp-

A-B-C = D-E-A-D

Some local media outlets have taken to tacking obligatory mentions of the ABC thingy onto stories related to the election campaign even when there is absolutely no logical reason to do so.

Despite that effort to keep the thing alive, Danny Williams' office confirmed on Tuesday that the whole thing is deader than a doornail.

They offered up the "he's too busy" excuse.

Uh huh.

Like yesterday when his jag was in his parking space but he sent Kathy Dunderdale down to meeting with people worried the government is about to issue even more fish processing licenses in a market already grossly oversupplied with fish plants.

Yes, Danny Williams turned down yet another request to  campaign.  That is to do more than deliver a bad speech badly to an audience that has heard it a dozen times already.

At some point, the local newsrooms will figure out the real story here and start covering it.

They can find a hint as to the reasons the ABC thingy is a total fiction in at least one Bond Papers post.

-srbp-

Family Feud: the silverback swipes again

A federal Conservative statement hot off the e-mail:

Minister Hearn Challenges Premier Williams To Allow Caucus to Campaign for Conservatives

The Honourable Loyola Hearn, Minister of Fisheries and Oceans and Minister Responsible for Newfoundland and Labrador, today issued the following statement:

Today Premier Williams said he would not threaten any MHAs to adopt his position of ABC in the next federal campaign.

My comments in local media were based on a growing number of calls we have received from concerned caucus members and Progressive Conservative staffers who used exactly that that phrase.  They felt there was a clear expectation that they needed to publicly campaign for ABC, even if they didn't agree with it, or there was a threat to their career advancement within the Williams government.

If the Premier's statement is true, and he wishes to let democracy take its course, will he send another e-mail to his caucus and clarify that there is no threat?  Will he tell them he means it when he says members are free to do whatever they believe is in the best interests of their districts -- even if that means campaigning for Conservative candidates at the federal level?

If there is no threat, will the Premier commit publicly that there will be no action taken against MHAs who choose to volunteer for Conservative Party of Canada?

He can put this issue to rest by sending another memo to caucus right away.

As your humble e-scribbler already maintained, Hearn is a scrappy silverback politician.  Experienced, used to being dominant, savvy and fully of inherent political strength just like the biggest gorilla in a family group.

He'll tolerate nonsense for a while but at some point he'll be ready to rip apart any challenger.

Hearn's been working the local media this Friday before the writ drops and his language is designed to go right at the heart of the so-called ABC campaign.

With the comment on leaks a couple of days ago, Hearn and his federal Conservative brethren have already shown they know how to campaign hard when they need to and, in the caucus leak story, set the other guys to constantly responding instead of setting the agenda.  Hearn's release today will increase the pressure and counts as another shift in the political agenda.

If this campaign keeps going with the same intensity, the repercussions will be felt in provincial politics.

-srbp-

Williams shifts ABC position in wake of polls

From the outset, Danny Williams has claimed the main goal of his ABC campaign was to deliver a big goose egg - no Conservative seats in Newfoundland and Labrador - to Stephen Harper's Conservative Party.

With publicly available polls showing real cracks in the ABC grip on the public imagination, Williams is now completely changing his views. Williams likely has polls of his own but he won't release those.

"The primary goal is not to deliver the goose egg.  I'd like Newfoundlanders to deliver the goose egg but if they don't, they don't.  That's certainly a goal.  The primary goal is to prevent him from winning a government, certainly a majority government." [Emphasis added; quoted in a Telegram front page story by Peter Walsh. Update:  The full story isn't online.  The link is to an abbreviated version carried by the Telly's sister daily in Corner Brook.]

Gee, it's not like we haven't seen that sort of shifting of position before in the face of bad polls.

Here's an idea, let's take down the flags.

-srbp-

Related:

Harper-Williams family feud affecting how feds deal with NL: poll

Another poll shows the NL starting numbers

Anything But Clear: poll

The first poll: some thoughts

ABC Comedy Central

Somehow, the Premier likely never thought his great political theatre called "Anybody but Conservative" would degenerate quite so quickly into absurdity.

One day it looked destined to be the next West Wing.  Next day it's Three's Company without the sophisticated humour.

ABC meets the comedy channel.

What else can you call it?

First there's Not too much to ask starring the former environment minister, backed by a guy who got his professional acting start in tourism commercials.  Clyde Jackman keeps going after the federal government for not ponying up money for Cupids. 

But, as it turns out, the executive director of the Cupers Cove Foundation packed it in last August after he was getting no where with either the feds and the province in the request for $12 million.

But that's not the funny bit.

Peter Mackenzie was really peeved when the provincial government told the foundation they needed to lower their expectations for provincial cash.  Jackman's department tossed $2.0 million on the table against a $12 million "ask", to use the cabinet vernacular these days.

Then Jackman's department went to the feds demanding $7.0 million. Jackman points to Quebec City which got $110 million in federal funding.

But as regular readers already know,  that province tossed in 50% of the cost.  All Jackman and his predecessor, current intergovernmental affairs minister Tom Hedderson, would do was cough up $6 million over three years ($2.0 million per year, not in total) and the federal cash would have flowed like water.

Those zany ministers are at it again, folks. Every episode you can hear one or the other say:  "is it too much to ask?"  And from off camera comes the small voice:  "Apparently, it was for you."

Then there's 5 Wing.  It was supposed to be an action/adventure hour but turned into endless comedy.

Labrador Affairs minister John Hickey likes to issue news releases that lambaste the Harper Conservatives currently running the country for ignoring a base that is crucial for protecting Canada's northern sovereignty. Only last month he was claiming that the woods around Goose Bay were ideal training areas since they could simulate any terrain in the world.  But of course both those releases were just a reaction to federal stories.

The comedy here, aside from the really obvious?  Hickey campaigned to put Harper in office in the last federal by-election and the Labrador by-election.

In very short order, Danny Williams went from having a political impact to running a comedy/variety show.

-srbp-

It's Coady in front

The NTV/Telelink poll on St. John's South- Mount Pearl didn't turn up many major surprises.

Liberal Siobhan Coady, who is trying the seat for the third time, is in front with 29.1% of "likely" voters.  New Democrat Ryan Cleary is in second place with 19.5% and Conservative Merv Wiseman is at 11.6%.  Green Party candidate Ted Warren and NL First Party candidate Greg Byrne fall into the "other" category in the poll, and split up 1.3% between them.

Undecided is at 38.5%.  Margin of error in the poll of 550 "likely" voters was plus or minus 4.3%.

Coady polled 35% and 33% of the cast votes in both her previous outings.  That means she's pretty much held on to her vote.

The New Democrats likewise seem to be hanging on to their vote with Ryan Cleary.  Peg Norman, the candidate last time, garnered a share of the vote in the low 20s.

Biggest change came for the Conservatives.  Loyola Hearn polled 40% and 45% of the cast votes in 2004 and 2006.

Fully 70% of respondents said the ABC campaign had no influence on their choice of Liberal or Conservative.

Undecided is very large, but in both the previous campaigns voter turnout was less than 60%.

Finally, voters were asked what issue they considered most important. As in Avalon, social programs rated first at 51.1%; the economy was second at 18.4%.

Equalization was the third issue, at 10.4%.  That's a pretty strong indication that the ABC campaign - which has Equalization at its core - isn't moving voters toward the Liberals and New Democrats.  Rather it has merely served to suppress the Conservative vote.

Unlike in Avalon, which had an equally large undecided population, the clear differentiation among the candidates in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and the absence of an incumbent suggests that the election is Coady's to lose.

She's been running a campaign that appears aimed to appeal to disgruntled Conservatives, although, as in past elections, the economic issues which have tended to be at the forefront of her campaign literature aren't the ones at top of mind for most voters.  A shift in her messaging to emphasize issues that are likeliest to move voters to the polls might help to make her unbeatable.  [Hint:  As in the past two federal elections, the Hibernia 8.5%, the Lower Churchill and Equalization are not the biggest thing on voters' minds.]

Cleary's campaign hasn't dropped literature throughout the riding and the absence of a website and advertising specifically for the riding has made it harder for the New Democrats to push their message to voters in the riding.  They've been relying, apparently on the national effort. That would make it very difficult for Cleary and the New Democrats to develop any momentum by appealing to the undecideds.

There's not much Wiseman could do except pray for some sort of October surprise.

Otherwise, St. John's South-Mount Pearl is going pretty much as the popular wisdom would have it.

-srbp-

Double barreled update - Not one but two e-mails corrected the point about Ryan Cleary not having a website.

He does, and you can find it at ryanclearyndp.ca.  Some will note that Ryan is blogging and find that hysterically funny given his relentless attacks on bloggers, including the claim at one point that he never read blogs.

There are some other points to note.  Cleary has signage which is a campaign standard.  The ones seen by your humble e-scribbler do not have the website addy.  Simple clue:  by putting the addy on the signs, you drive traffic to the website where more detailed information can be found.

Apparently there have been no literature drops in the Cowan Heights/Bowring Park area of the riding. Despite having searched by every means possible, your humble e-scribbler couldn't find the Cleary site.  It seems to have gone live around September 23, judging by the date of the first blog entry. 

Cleary has been knocking doors, however it is hard to hit the entire riding in five to six weeks that way.

Thanks for the corrected information, Dale and Clare Marie. Now that it's confirmed Ryan has a website, we can do the Campaign 2.0 assessment of this election.

If there are any other gaps, keep the corrected information coming.

 

Provincial Conservatives plan ABC astroturf

Bond Papers readers are no doubt shocked at the very thought, but it seems to be true.

They may even be struck speechless at the very idea.

The Provincial Conservatives are organizing astroturf as part of the Family Feud. That's according to some information Geoff Meeker obtained courtesy of Loyola Hearn's office, whose spokesman conveyed it this way:

“We were contacted late last week by a member of the provincial PC caucus, who told us that they were contacted by someone in the premier’s office, asking all ministers and MHAs to find at least four people in their ridings who they can call upon to put their names to letters to the editor, or to put calls in to Open Line shows, to give the appearance that the ABC campaign is away more ‘grass roots’ than perhaps what it is. These calls are happening during business hours from someone in the premier’s office, though I won’t get into who.”

The piece contains another claim destined to leave people truly dumbfounded:  the astroturf campaign is already underway.

Not like people haven't been writing blog posts and calling open line shows expressing their sedimental solidarity with the New Democrats, talking up the positive features of the Family Feud and condemning Stephen Harper at every opportunity.

-srbp-

Cloverfield 2

In 1988,  Jack Harris was the lively little mammal who emerged amid a battle between a Godzilla and a Mothra of local politics to head off to Ottawa as member of parliament for St. John's East.

How ironic that 20 years later, Harris is one of two political dinosaurs resurrected by the nuclear explosions of the Premier's Family Feud to wage battle across the streets and hills of St. John's East.

The lively mammal in this latest really bad remake of really bad old political horror movies turns out, to everyone's surprise, to be the Conservative candidate, former journalist Craig Westcott.

Odds are the Provincial Conservatives never saw that one coming.  They could have predicted Harris' return like the rest of us did, as far back as six or eight months ago.  Danny Williams' former law partner spent his last few years spending way more time siding with the government and asking softball questions for the Provincial Conservatives to be the least bit worried that as a federal member of parliament he might somehow dare to contradict the Premier or pose any other form of challenge. To some, Harris spent his last years in the legislature sounding more like a Tory backbencher angling for an appointment to cabinet than the leader of the province's social democrats.

And after all, that is really what the ABC campaign is about on one level:  ensuring that there are no federal politicians able to challenge the Premier as the undeniable spokesperson for the heart and soul of the nation.  Some of the Commentariat has asked what Williams would do if there was another Harper administration with no elected Conservative members in his caucus.  Rub his hands in glee would be the answer.

To get his wish, Williams only has to hope the federal Liberals wind up in second place.  If Dion forms a new Liberal administration in mid October, either Judy Foote or Todd Russell would stand a chance of a cabinet seat.  They sit in safe Liberal seats and have no contenders against them as it current stands.

Cynthia Downey is rumoured by some to thinking of running in Random Burin St. George's.  If she does crop up, then you can bet the Provincial Conservatives are behind it.   Downey won't matter much though, since any opponent can simply point to her political blindness in her run for the federal Conservatives last time as proof she lacks anything resembling political judgment.  After all, what person concerned about refugees under a deportation order would run for a political party committed to the rapid execution of deportation orders?

But all that is digression.  As it stands right now, the only real political battles in this federal election are on the Avalon and the most interesting is in the East.

The race will likely see Jack Harris in the lead early on.  He is generally popular, even though the bulk of his old provincial seat is in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. In addition though, the New Democrats can count on support from the Provincial Conservatives - i.e. Jack's old law partner - who can funnel money if needed but more importantly workers and voters into the Orange camp.  The local Dippers will likely be amazed at seeing such political riches to use.

Confirmation of strong Williams support came in the form of Ed Buckingham, a longtime Tory organizer and current member of the provincial legislature, at Harris' campaign launch late Monday afternoon. Buckingham is connected and if he is there, then others are behind the scenes knocking doors to send Danny's man to Ottawa.

Craig Westcott's appearance in the campaign will serve chiefly to get up the Premier's nose and to draw whatever resources will go into the ABC campaign from the Provincial Conservative side into two ridings instead of the one they'd counted on.  Given the history between the two - and the new chapters to be written during the campaign - Williams cannot take the chance of Westcott doing anything but being crushed utterly.

The Provincial Conservatives won't be able to take any chances in that respect, either. The federal Conservatives in the riding can count on some workers and come polling day they can likely count on more votes than some currently give them credit for. The ballot boxes are secret, after all. With no way of precisely polling the district - people lie to pollsters when they want to do something a dominant force wouldn't like - Williams will be fighting the East campaign partially blinded.

As for Walter Noel, he will be struggling to find relevance. The heat of the campaign will be somewhere else and there is simply no way by which Noel can inject himself into the row.  Should he try and step in, one of his opponents will likely deliver him some perfume, women's clothes and a camera so that he can stay busy and stay out of the way.

If voters in St. John's East want an alternative to the Conservatives, they have it in Jack Harris.  The way the votes will likely run in the East, traditional NDP voters, hard core Conservatives who haven't gotten over 1949, provincial Tories and both federal and provincial Liberals who wish that Walter would just know when to stop - a disease that affects too many old politicians - can all find an amenable choice in Jack Harris.  He is offensive to none.

For those who are staunchly Conservative or who like their politicians to be somewhat offensive to the scared cows of provincial politics sometimes, they can chose Westcott.

If nothing else, Westcott's trademark sharp tongue will lash Danny Williams every time he enters the campaign.  If the first few days are any indication, Westcott may likely lash the old boy a few more times just to get a rise out of him.

And every time Williams does rise to the bait - he conspicuously didn't make himself available at all on Monday - Westcott's stock goes up making him potentially even more electable than he is at the start of the campaign.

What a mess this Family Feud could turn out to be.

-srbp-

A tight race in Avalon? Dream on, baby

NTV and Telelink released a poll on Tuesday on the race in the federal riding of Avalon.

NTV touted it as showing a tight race, with the Conservative incumbent and Liberal challenger separated by only the margin of error for the poll.

Take a look at the undecided in the poll and you can forget about tight races.

39.9%

Yes, 40 percent of the people surveyed said they were undecided. That's 15 percentage points higher than Fabian Manning got and he's in the lead;  his nearest challenger - Liberal Scott Andrews - racked up something around 21%.

Then look at the satisfaction number for the incumbent, Fabian Manning.  Fifty-one percent said they were satisfied with his performance as member of parliament.

Then recall that Fabian Manning has been on the receiving end of a huge amount of attention as the only incumbent Conservative running in this election. The entire rhetorical weight of the Family Feud sat on his shoulders at one time and even though the Premier has backed off somewhat, there's evidently no love loss between the two.

And everyone knows that.

With all the anything but Conservative messaging out there, anyone who has made a clear choice shouldn't feel the least problem in telling the world that they intend to vote Liberal, New Democrat or even that they won't vote.

The large undecided vote in Avalon is most likely comprised of a large group of Manning voters who are simply uncomfortable with saying publicly what they could reasonably perceive as being an unpopular choice.  In some instances, they might even think that expressing their choice that might invite even more pressure against their guy than he's already felt.

Here's another clue:  when asked about the impact of the ABC campaign on their choice, people who selected a non-Conservative choice (i.e. the Liberals and New Democrats) overwhelmingly indicated (66%) that ABC had no impact on their choice.

That leads your humble e-scribbler to conclude that those Grit and Dipper votes were pretty much shored up any way.

Now it is entirely possible that the 40% undecided contains a huge number of people who just won't vote. That still likely works more in Manning's favour than against him.

As a last point, note that Telelink doesn't probe undecideds to determine any leanings or why they are undecided.  That means any detailed analysis  - including this post - is difficult and any comments are conjecture.

Still, you'd have to believe an awful lot of things to believe that the race in Avalon is actually tight.

-srbp-

Layton shafts Williams on key ABC demand

Jack Layton's promise to "honour the Atlantic Accord" doesn't meet one of Danny Williams key ABC demands and would deliver nothing in new federal transfers to Newfoundland and Labrador under the 2005 Williams deal with Paul Martin.

Williams is seeking to have the province's revenues from offshore oil and onshore minerals  - likely $2.0 billion this year - left out of the formula used to calculate Equalization transfers from Ottawa to the provinces.

Canadian Press gets it wrong:

Premier Danny Williams estimated the difference between the accord and the Tories' revised equalization plan was $10 billion - a sum he recently demanded Ottawa pay over 15 years.

The $10 billion number comes from the pledge made by both Stephen Harper in 2006 to drop non-renewables from Equalization. The estimated value to the province came from projections by a Memorial University economist. The actual value of the Harper 2006 promise Williams is looking for now would be considerably more given the current high prices for oil and minerals.

Harper didn't deliver in 2006.  His government instead went with a revised Equalization formula based on recommendations from an expert panel. It's that failure that ignited Williams' anger at Harper.

In 2006, Layton promised only to deliver an Equalization formula with "A better measure of fiscal capacity."

Evidence of Layton's confusion between Williams' demand and the 2005 deal is in the estimated value of the new Layton "commitment, said by Canadian Press to be worth $400 million according to NDP researchers.

Under the 2005 deal Layton referred to on Friday, the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial government will receive extra federal transfers to offset declines in Equalization coming as a result of growing oil money.  But the extra cash comes only as long as the province qualifies to receive Equalization in the first place.

The provincial government won't qualify for the federal transfer this year, hence it won't be entitled to cash under the 2005 deal. 

Layton's commitment won't actually involve any new cash transfers either.

As part of the 2005 deal, Newfoundland and Labrador received an advance payment - essentially a credit against future earnings under the deal. That money won't be completely exhausted this year by the time the province goes off Equalization.  The credit in the account is considerably more than $400 million.

-srbp-

The Fruits of A Very Poisonous Tree #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale said on Tuesday that the province will have problems now that it doesn’t have a federal cabinet minister from this province.

As CBC quoted her from a scrum outside the House of Assembly, Kathy said:

“It always makes it more difficult when you don't have somebody inside the tent,…”

This is not just a difficult position, it is a stupid position, but it is exactly the stupid policy that Kathy Dunderdale advocated.