Courtesy of a loyal Bond Papers reader comes this translation of the NTV poll results, compared to the 2006 general election.
| 2006 | Sept 08 | |
| Liberal | 42.8 | 42.4 |
| Conservative | 42.7 | 31.8 |
| NDP | 13.6 | 19.6 |
Based on very preliminary analysis of this poll result coupled with a study of long term voting trends, these numbers suggest that the four Liberal seats from 2006 would see an increase the margin for the Liberal candidate compared to the 2006 results.
The three seats currently held by the Conservatives would appear tight. Given that two of the incumbents are not running, the Conservative position gets tougher. By the same token, this statistical analysis obviously doesn't factor the actual candidate mix into the results. Who the candidate is compared to the others does matter.
The main impact of the Family Feud appears to have been a softening of the Conservative vote. The extent of that softening isn't completely clear. The Feud can deliver cabinet ministers and hard core party workers in some cases but it won't clinch it for the party that seems to be favoured by the Feud supporters.
In Avalon, it is currently shaping up to be a two-way fight between the Conservative Fabian Manning and Liberal Scott Andrews. Dropping a new prison in Harbour Grace, as Stephen Harper is expected to do this weekend, would be a significant boost for Manning.
In the St. John's seats, the race would be tight, based solely on the numbers. Factor in Jack Harris in St. John's East, take out the advantage for the Conservatives from incumbency and the softening of the Conservatives because of the Family Feud and Harris would look to have an upswing.
The challenge for Liberal Walter Noel would be to make himself relevant, compared to the current public perception of Harris as the sole beneficiary of the Family Feud.
Likewise, in St. John's South Mount Pearl, the political challenge for the Liberals and New Democrats will be to take maximum advantage of the softening of the Conservative vote and to turn the election into a two-way fight. Siobhan Coady is widely perceived as the front runner. Expect the New Democrats to start turning their guns on her directly in an effort to make it a two-way racket. That can work to Coady's advantage if she can actually capitalize on it.
Campaigns are not foregone conclusions. Polling numbers and past voting patterns are only indicators. They are clues. There is nothing deterministic about them. Much depends, as in every election, about how the candidates and the campaigns perform on the ground.
-srbp-
