06 November 2015

Abacus – First poll 2015 #nlpoli

No surprise that the Liberals are way ahead in the latest Abacus horse race poll.

No surprise the NDP have fallen and the Tories have held steady.

What you need to look at to understand what this means are the results for three Abacus questions.

win question

First, look at the “who do you think will win?”  question.  The results of that question can wind up being closer to the final result result than the reply to the straight up “who will you vote for question.

76% of respondents said they expected the Liberals to win.  That’s 10 points above the current Liberal party choice number. Tories are at nine, 10 points below their current number and the NDP are at three.


The bar chart at right shows how self-identified supporters of each party picked.  More than half of Tories said they expect the Liberals will win and two thirds of New Democrats said they expect the Liberals to win.

Those numbers and those attitudes mean that the NDP are in trouble in metro already. With these sorts of results, you’d be looking at a complete NDP decimation.

And over on the other side, you’d be looking at maybe two or three Tories.  The lead on the Avalon shown in the Abacus horse race numbers (what party would you vote for?) would put districts like Ferryland in play for the Liberals.

That’s the second thing to look at.  The lead is enormous in every region.

Third is the question that relates voter impressions of the state of the province and how they plan to vote.

People think things are on a good track.  But overwhelmingly they are voting for the Liberals, apparently in the belief the Liberals are best able to keep that going. 

That’s very bad news for Paul Davis, although Tories will likely cling to the “satisfaction” number as if it meant anything for voting intention.

Even if the Liberals slipped 10 points in the polls, they’d still win a majority with those numbers and you’d be looking at a combined opposition of 10 seats or fewer.  If those numbers hold, you’d be looking at a sweep.  Comparisons to 1999 or 2007 in this province aren’t valid.since they compare apples to oranges, incorrectly.