26 March 2019

Everyone loses: new MQO poll for NTV #nlpoli

On the eve of an anticipated election call, voters in Newfoundland and Labrador turn up their noses at everyone currently on the field.
The latest MQO poll for NTV shows why no one should discard the people who don;t pick a party when asked who they would vote for.

When asked which party, they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow,  a majority - 56%  - said either that they would not vote,  refused to answer, or said they were undecided.

Liberal support dropped five points from the previous MQO poll, going from 26 to 21.  PC Support dropped from 25% to 18% and NDP support sank to four percent.  The party defectors all went into the bag of supposedly undecided voters.  It looks much more like they were opting for "none of the above."

Click to enlarge
In the SRBP chart of all polls in the sequence in which they are release, the fall for each party appears more dramatic than it is.  That's because  the poll released before this - CRA's February omnibus - had the parties slightly higher than MQO found them in January.

The MQO before that was presented by media at the time it appeared as showing the parties in a statistical tie.

If you look at the MQO numbers alone, though, they show now a consistent downward trend for all parties.  The drop is especially bad for the NDP.  Since 2011,  the party has never polled this low, although it has been below 10 percent of respondents several times.

The party choice results are mirrored in the responses to MQO's question about which leader would make the best Premier.  Support for all three party leaders dropped.