18 September 2019

Dippers go home #nlpoli

The latest quarterly poll from Narrative Research shows that a gaggle of folks who were likely New Democratic Party supporters returned to the fold in the past quarter and are now happy to identify as New Democrats once more.

So while this is good news for Alison Coffin and the NDP,  it really puts everything back in the space the parties occupied before February 2019.  That's when things were decidedly beige.

You can see this in the chart at right by looking at the orange line (NDP party support) and the green line (undecided, no choice, refused to answer, will not vote).  What you also see there is that generally polling from other firms has picked up the same basic pattern.

NDP party support has been trending upward, although not as dramatically as the recent Narrative poll showed.  Still, the Narrative result carries with an upward trend that seems to have started in early 2019.

This explanation is supported by the NDP result in the last election that showed the party picking up an extra seat and hanging on to its bedrock seats in metro St. John's.

Meanwhile, the Liberals and Conservatives have stayed generally between 20% and 30%. The change from poll to poll, up and down, has been typically within the margin of error for these polls.

A rolling average of  four poll results shows both the Liberals and Conservatives on an upward trend but that's likely because the more recent declines just aren't being picked up fully by the averaging approach.  That four poll trending, by the way, is indicated by the faint lines.