The Terra Nova by-election result

Just to drive home the point on just how inaccurate CRA polls really are here are some comparisons using the Terra Nova by-election.

	1. Actual Turnout	2. Actual, Percent, Turnout	3. Actual, Percent, All	4. CRA Nov Turnout	5. CRA, Corrected All	6. CRA, Corrected, Turnout
LIB	1663	38	20	16/697	12/991	12/522
NDP	297	07	04	07/305	05/413	05/217
PC	2398	55	29	77/3356	58.5/4833	58.5/2549
DNV	3904	-	47		24/1982
Total Eligible	8262	100	100

The first column shows the actual turnout vote along with the number that didn’t show up.

The second column shows the turnout divvied up among the three parties, with the people who didn’t vote discounted. That’s basically the way CRA does its numbers as a percentage of “decideds”. Everything that didn’t make a vote choice is lumped in a big pile and tossed to one side.

The third column shows the actual percentages for each category, including those who didn’t vote.

The fourth column is where it gets funny. If we take the actual turnout of 4358 eligible voters and divide them according to the shares that CRA projected, this is the percent and the number you get. As you can see, these numbers aren’t even close to the actual result in any way shape or form.

That fifth column uses the corrected CRA results and plots out the projected returns in comparison to all eligible voters. Frankly, this is the one that CRA results should most closely model.

Well, it should but it doesn’t. You can see the undecided, will not vote is way off. The Tory vote is inflated, the Liberal vote is pushed down and the NDP number is pretty close to right, relatively speaking.

Then in that last column and just for even more fun, there’s a comparison of the CRA figures – corrected as a percentage of all – and then reapportioned as the turnout vote.

Well that one is a wee bit closer to what actually happened but for some bizarre reason CRA just can’t seem to get that Liberal vote even close to right.

Now to anyone who really wants to think hard about the results consider column three as your food for sustain you over the long cold winter. A higher percentage of people stayed home in Terra Nova than turned out to exercise their democratic right.

Almost half the voters in Terra Nova district opted to sit out rather than get involved.

Someone needs to probe the reasons why but your humble e-scribbler would venture there is a something that would motivate those people to get out and vote. There is something that none of the parties has currently figured out.

But if someone could energise those people, you could actually defeat any one of the existing parties – including Hisself – and do so handily. What would motivate those voters might even peel voters away from one or more of the other piles.

Now there’s an interesting idea to give some people the cold sweats at night.

-srbp-

How many cabinet ministers…

does it take to fight a by-election?

Most of ‘em if reports from the wilds of  Terra Nova are any sign.

The politicos from all sides have piled into every available space in the last few hours leading up to polling day this Thursday. Things are so thick with volunteers that there is a danger some of them might wind up sharing a lunch table at Sheila’s.  Imagine how bad things would get for space if Tom Hedderson and Roland Butler wound up grabbing a few winks at opposite ends of a couch. 

Even Hisself has been campaigning heavily in the district, as one might expect.  Well, his truck has been sighted.

One major difference from The Straits:  only Hisself is allowed to take to the fine airwaves of voice of the cabinet minister’s talk shows to discuss the wondrous glory they are discovering in rural Newfoundland.  

At least that lesson has been learned. 

By the way, has anyone asked Kevin O’Brien what district he is in this time?

-srbp-

The Genie with the Centre-Parted Hair

There are strange things done ‘neath the midnight sun but nothing quite as curious as the goings on the campaign trail in Terra Nova district last week.

Liberal leader Yvonne Jones apparently found that Tory leader Danny Williams was showing up at places where she had booked meetings or scheduled visits but always about an hour in advance.

Maybe he was there to dispense a little wisdom.  Maybe he was campaigning in the time-honoured tradition of Newfoundland politicians.

Anyway, Williams and his entourage were gone by the time Jones showed up.

In one case – as it goes in versions have arrived at the doorstep of your humble e-scribbler - Jones had scheduled a private meeting with one business in the district.

The operators of the business were surprised to find Williams on their doorstep an hour before the meeting proudly announcing he was there and ready to meet.

No one was expecting him – apparently - since there’d been no contact about his arrival or having a meeting with him.

Maybe Danny should try the same approach with Hydro Quebec.

-srbp-

And then another EA steps up…

Sandy Collins, former executive assistant to Paul Oram is the provincial Conservative candidate in Terra Nova in the by-election yet to be called.

Orange Update: Robyn Brentnall is the New Democrat in the running.

Red Update: The Liberal candidate is John Baird. He was elected in a nomination fight on October 17.

Two things:

1. Remember what your humble e-scribbler said about a party that can only offer up former executive assistants as candidates, and,

2. The people in Terra Nova district can vote today by special ballot even though no election has been called.

Every person can request a special ballot including:

• an elector who has reason to believe that he/she will have difficulty voting on polling day perhaps due to work or personal commitments;

• a student who is in attendance at a recognized educational institution either inside or outside the Province;

• an elector temporarily residing outside the Province for a continuous period of less than 6 months who is unable to attend at either the advance or regular poll;

• an elector who is incarcerated in a correctional institution or in detention at the Waterford Hospital;

• a patient in hospital who will be unable to attend either the advance or regular poll.

All you have to do is contact the Office of the Chief Electoral Officer, otherwise known as Elections Newfoundland and Labrador.

There’s a form to complete and send in. You can find it in pdf format here.

They’ll send you back a voter kit which you can use to cast your vote right now.

But there’s no election yet, you may be thinking.

Doesn’t matter.

Under section 86(4) of the Elections Act, voters who meet those criteria above can ask for a special ballot no more than four weeks before an election or by-election is called. Well, you and the rest of the world don’t know when the thing will be called but we know when the earliest date is that it could be called.

That would be the day Paul Oram threw his teddy in the corner. Any of you who knew Paul was going could have already voted.

But since the rest of us found out later on, you should be able to get a ballot and vote right now.

There is no legal reason for the Chief Electoral Officer (former Tory party president Paul Reynolds) to refuse you the opportunity to vote under section 86(4).

And don’t worry if you don't like the party but not the candidate. [Updated to reflect that all candidates are now in place, barring any independents]

Under section 86.4, you can write in the name of the political party you want to vote for instead of the name of a particular person.

Voting is your right.

Now that’s pretty much the same thing said in a post about the Straits, but you know, it is not very often people get to protest a completely foolish electoral law twice in the space of a month or so. In the Straits, people were a bit fried so a protest vote was possible.

In Terra Nova, townies may not be able to judge which way the local wind is blowing.

This time everyone can take advantage of the oddest election rules in the civilised world. Only in Newfoundland and Labrador could you get to vote before an election has been called.

Vote early for the candidate of your choice.

But vote.

-srbp-