Government follows through on promised AbitibiBowater corporate subsidy

Premier Danny Williams and a gaggle of cabinet ministers took the trip to central Newfoundland on Tuesday to announce that the provincial government will pay former AbitibiBowater workers money owed to them by the company.

That’s pretty much the logical result of government’s announced intention in late April to subsidize AbitibiBowater:

2.  If that’s the case, why doesn’t the government just cough up the cash and then sort it out with AB later on, rather than leave the workers hanging?

The announcement comes as discontent grows in central Newfoundland.

Meanwhile in totally, completely unrelated news, the provincial government’s pollster is currently in the field collecting the quarterly poll goose and the nurses are about to go on strike. 

In other totally, unrelated and completely coincidental events, the provincial government is threatening to legislate the nurses back to work in the event they take strike action.  Government has committed to paying the nurses according to the template agreement which would be considerably less than had been negotiated. Government is also insisting on two clauses which the union has said are deal-breakers.  The nurses have suggested sending the two disputed clauses to binding arbitration.  The provincial government has refused.

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Legislature to close early?

Don’t be surprised if the House of  Assembly shuts down suddenly later this week or early next week before the nurses’ job action starts.

After weeks of no activity, there’s been a sudden flurry of night sittings and extended hours that seem designed to clear off a few pieces of legislation so the House can close well before the original planned closure in mid-June.

The reason for closing early is simple:  there’s no way government could afford to have the House open with a nurses strike on the go at the same time the government’s pollster is in the field.  That’s right folks:  Corporate Research Associates is making its quarterly calls as we speak.

They can adjourn the sitting and then call it back later, if need be to send the nurses back to work suitably punished, as the Premier threatened today.  Rest assured though, the House wouldn’t be called back to vote on the bill to end a nurses strike until Don Mills’ people have stopped making their calls or have all but finished.

Never forget the extent to which provincial government pronouncements are driven at certain times of the year by the poll-goosing imperative. 

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One thing you can count on…

If the nurses take any strike action, the provincial government will legislate them back to work with a vengeance.

Sure the Premier and finance minister have drawn a dozen lines in the sand and made countless threats all of which came to naught.

But when it comes to the point where the labour struggle is, this provincial government will use the power of the legislature to smash whatever it needs to smash in order to get its way.

Just ask the Abitibi workers who thought the expropriation bill was about helping them out and not about skimming off the cream of Abitibi’s assets for the Premier’s pet crown corporation.

Plus, they’ll change the current legislation to make sure that there is as little chance of a court challenge as possible.

But…

It’s hard to imagine that the provincial government would follow on one aspect of the Premier’s latest threats simply because it would only have the result of making an already tough labour environment even tougher:

"So, there'll be no standby increase, there'll be no shift differential increase, there'll be no educational leave. There will be no additional steps for nurses coming into the system, and there'll be no additional steps for nurses that are already in the system."

No educational leave?

No additional steps?  That would have the effect of making recruitment and retention even tougher even allowing for the union busting provisions government will take for themselves so they can cut one-off deals with individual nurses.

Then again, in the Great Game of Chicken that is government’s negotiations with the nurses, logic and sense just don’t apply.

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Nurses, government do the power dance

First, government tried threatening the nurses with an imposed settlement and back-to-work legislation in hopes of frightening them off their strike vote.

Then, when that didn’t work, they tried to lure them back to the table now with a significant change of position.

Then, when the nurses didn’t cancel their strike vote and return to the bargaining table immediately, the Premier and finance minister said they were disappointed the nurses’ didn’t accept the government’s olive branch. The even tried to bring up the financial scare issue of the looming deficit.

There are a few of things to bear in mind:

1. Nurses accepted the olive branch.  They just are going back to the bargaining table with a strike mandate in their back pocket, not when the Premier and finance minister would like.
2. It’s polling season.  Don’t under-estimate that timing issue as a motivating factor for an administration that spends an inordinate amount of time massaging polls. The provincial government had plenty of time to deal with this issue before now.  Their panic at having the government pollster in the field while the nurses carry on a strike vote isn’t a reason for the nurses to simply stop everything.
3. What happened to the bubble?  Before Christmas everything was rosy according to the Premier, finance minister and the government’s favourite economist.  Bond Papers readers knew better. It seems a little disingenuous for government to be singing the deficit tune now.
4. Back to the table now interrupts the strike vote.  The Premier and finance minister – both experienced lawyers – know that if the nurses interrupt their strike vote now, they’d have to start from scratch later on.  That would give government an additional six weeks or more if talks failed this time. Nurses lose by going back to the table prematurely so they aren’t likely to do it. Claiming they aren’t interested in talks sounds a little precious  - even desperate - at this point.
5. Did you hear the eyelids slamming shut?  Government’s tactics in dealing with the nurses have been clumsy, to put it mildly.  Jerome’s year-end deadline passed as if it was nothing.  His threat to legislate vanished this week.  It’s hard for the nurses to feel any sympathy for the provincial government when it has stuck to its hard line all this time.  It’s harder again for nurses to take government seriously when they first of all make threats and then don’t carry them out.  This week nurses heard Jerome Kennedy’s eyelids slamming shut as he blinked, big time.  That may not have been his intention but that’s what nurses saw. No on is surprised they are carrying on with their strategy;  it seems to be working just as government’s obviously isn’t.
6. Bad jokes don’t help.  Danny Williams didn’t help matters with his widely reported, cheesy joke about not wanting to get sick and have to face the province’s nurses in a hospital. He needs to throw away the guide to public speaking and joke telling Roger Grimes left him.  That’s tongue in cheek, by the way.  Williams lambasted Grimes for telling an off colour joke when Grimes spoke to American bankers a few years ago.   The little jest at nurses expense delivered to an audience at a national conference in St. John’s is every bit as bad or worse.

This might turn out to be the most interesting year in recent memory.  The provincial government may have finally found a group that can’t be bullied or intimidated or even fooled for that matter.

The Premier should call up his predecessor and get some better advice.  Brian Tobin tackled the nurses and didn’t come out of it all that well off.  And Danny Williams and his wannabe replacement Jerome Kennedy should remember:  nurses won’t forget.

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Pull the other one, Jerome

About half through finance minister Jerome Kennedy’s scrum on Friday something very interesting happened.

Jerome scratched his nose.

It’s interesting because it is the only time he made any big hand gestures within the camera shot during the entire scrum.  His hands come up a bit during some sections but this one really leaps out if one watches the whole scrum from start to finish.

It’s interesting because he scratched his nose right after an exchange with reporters about how the province’s financial state might make it impossible for government to deliver nurses a very generous wage offer since, as Kennedy put it, there are “unknowns and variables” that will affect government’s financial position.

In fact he scratches his nose right before he says “unknowns and variables.”

It’s interesting because scratching your nose is usually taken as a sign of discomfort, a sign that what was said is not accurate or true.  In extreme cases, scratching ones nose is a sign of deception.

The nurses and government have been at logger-heads for most of the past year.  The government insists that there will be no discussion on salaries;  it’s the 20% offered or nothing else. 

Listen to the scrum.  You have to go a ways before that becomes clear but under relentless questioning from CBC’s David Cochrane Kennedy makes it plain that the only issue government is really hung up about is cash.  The rest of it is something they are willing to talk about but nothing more. 

This isn’t negotiation by any stretch of anyone’s imagination or even a serious effort to get the nurses back to the bargaining table.  If it was, Kennedy and his boss wouldn’t have been throwing threats around since before Christmas.  Now the last threat – to take the 20% off the table after December 31st – turned out to be a gigantic bluff.  The nurses pulled the other one and found out there were bells on it.

The latest threat is to come back and take the offer or else, the or else part in this case being having a settlement imposed on nurses.

From the nurses perspective, of course, it doesn’t take too much imagination to see that there’s precious little difference between swallowing the 20% and everything else in government’s position  along with it or having rammed Danny and Jerome ram it down their collective throats as if they were AbitibiBowater. 

No difference, no gain.  No gain – even if only in face saving – and there is no chance of averting a strike.  Nurses have been down this road before.  A decade ago they hounded Brian Tobin during the winter election until Brian made a deal to get them off his back.  From the nurses’ standpoint, he didn’t deliver so they went on strike.

He legislated them back to work.

The opposition Provincial Conservatives had a field day in the legislature that spring raising questions about recruitment and retention and pattern bargaining.

Sounds awfully familiar, doesn’t it?

Kennedy pulled his nose because what he is saying makes no sense and he knows it. 

In addition to the December 31st cut-off being a big bluff, the whole threat to the nurses lacks in credibility.  If they might not get anything beyond eight percent in the first year because of the uncertain economic times, then it stands to reason that the other unions might have to give up their cash as well.  Kennedy says no;  the government has guaranteed their money despite the economic circumstances.

CBC’s David Cochrane does a good job of poking at that one and Kennedy squirms in discomfort at the fairly obvious logical problem with the government position. He gets to the point in the scrum where – having drawn a bunch of lines in the sand of his own - Kennedy accuses nurses union president Debbie Forward of drawing lines in the sand.  Again, Cochrane points that out in the preface to one of his questions. 

Kennedy’s conundrum on the nurses is that obvious.

His fiscal one will become more obvious the closer we all get to budget day.  On the one hand, Kennedy needs to convince nurses there are hard economic times and therefore they should take the government offer now rather than risk losing all that money.

On the other hand, you have government and its supporters - Kennedy, Shawn Skinner, Paul Oram, government pollster Don Mills and government economic consultant and Wade Locke – all talking about how wonderful the future will be. The two things can’t live in the same space just as the 31st of December can’t be a deadline and then not a deadline, the 20% can be guaranteed but not guaranteed or the government be willing to talk but only if there is no talk and the nurses accept whole the government’s position as dictated.

The last government crew that messed with nurses wound up starting their long political death spiral in the fight. The only difference is that then the government started out with a credible financial argument to back their position.

Jerome hasn’t even got that.

All he’s got is his nose to pull.

Sounds pretty impotent.

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