The crab protestors behaviour moved the provincial government today to invoke new security precautions at the Confederation Building requiring visitors to produce picture identification cards of any kind in order to gain entry to the building.
Predictably, and indeed understandably, the Opposition is protesting the move arguing that the change was introduced unilaterally by the government and, in effect, breaches privileges of members of the House of Assembly. The House is located in the building and one must gain entry to the building to gain entry to the House.
No sensible person would argue with the need to provide security for the House of Assembly. Any members of any parliament must be free from intimidation by force or threats of force. Strong action must be taken to ensure that public debate on the floor of the legislature can continue unfettered either by mob or by the Crown.
The crab protestors are being a mob and they must be prevented from taking the House on their back, as the saying goes, while still enjoying their free speech outside the House chamber. By tradition and sensible custom, the only people who speak in the legislature are its elected members and those called before the bar of the House. Everyone else, except for House staff, are strangers and are admitted, not as a matter of right, but as a matter of privilege. When the House is closed for six days in a row because of thuggery, then our entire democracy is being driven by brute force and testosterone rather than reason and sense.
That said, the legislature is in control of its own fate and each member is equal to every other member when it comes to matters of House procedure. The House, as a whole, controls its precincts.
By taking unilateral action to control access to the building which Houses the legislature, the Premier (or the government) has taken the House on his own back. This is as intolerable as the crab protestors' actions, no matter how well-intentioned the Premier might be.
Simply put, the Premier can neither bar nor impede access to the legislature through decree or any action of government without the concurrence of the legislature. It may be within his legal powers, but this is solely by virtue of physical construction not legal ones. He should not be using one power to gain another which he legitimately does not possess.
In his own defence, the Premier said that the protestors were blocking the operations of government or words to that effect. Not so. Government offices are not being affected by the crab protestors. The legislature is. This is a significant distinction. The Premier may be the government or the head of the government, but he is not the head of the legislature. He may be first among equals, theoretically in cabinet. Inside the House he is merely another member with a special seat. He enjoys no special status over the operation of the House whatsoever.
The Premier ought to have brought the matter before the House during the private session prior to the admission of strangers or through the appropriate House committee. His failure to do so undermines the effective operation of the House. It robs members of their powers and in so doing promotes frustration and discontent that may well spill over into other areas as members seek to regain lost influence.
The Commons in Ottawa has descended to a yakking pit largely due to the self-interested action of one or another group; the House of Assembly cannot be allowed to go the same way on purpose or through neglect.
Curiously, neither the Speaker nor the Government House leader have used the standing orders of the House to proper effect.
In some British-style legislatures, the old cry "I spy strangers" by any member was sufficient to have non-members removed from the precincts of the House (including the galleries). Westminster has eliminated this practice. It remains in force in the House of Assembly in Standing Order 22. It would only take one member spat upon or with gum in his hair to cry "I spy strangers". The Speaker is required to immediately put a motion 'That strangers do now withdraw", without debate. If the motion is passed, the House must be cleared of all but its own staff. Since the televised proceedings may be considered part of Hansard the broadcast can proceed uninterrupted thereby giving wider public access to the proceedings than the mere presence of individuals in the gallery.
Under SO 23, though, there is a more pertinent rule. "Any stranger admitted into any part of the House or gallery, who misconducts himself or herself, or who does not withdraw when strangers are directed to withdraw, while the House, or any Committee of the Whole House, is sitting, shall be taken into custody by the Sergeant-at-Arms and no person so taken into custody shall be discharged without a special order of the House." [Emphasis added]
The Speaker already has ample power to prevent disruptions in the House caused by strangers. The members also have the ability to prevent disruption. Their failure to exercise the powers they enjoy is no excuse for petty bureaucratic efforts that circumvent the privileges of elected members of the legislature.
The Speaker's explanation in today is that he had taken advice from the Sergeant at Arms and other officials such as police. He accepted the idea of requiring picture identification cards of all people entering the building. As he put it in the House: "The Speaker has had consultations with the Sergeant-at-Arms and with the other civil authorities in the last numbers of days, and security to this House and within the parliamentary precinct is, indeed, a concern for the Speaker and for all members in this House.
I want to say to all members, based on the recommendations that the Speaker has received from the Sergeant-at-Arms and from the civil authorities, that there will be a voluntary requirement today for a photo ID. On tomorrow, I do believe notice has been given, it will be a general requirement for all visitors to the parliamentary precinct."
The Speaker is right in saying that security is a concern of all members. However, the standing orders do not appear to delegate to the Speaker the right to make decisions unilaterally on safety and security. To have endorsed the security changes without advising all members is intolerable.
The House has given to the Speaker such authority and power as he needs to maintain order. He needs only to exercise his authority appropriately. He has failed to do so and this calls into question his overall performance in this affair.
Mr. Speaker is historically the chief guardian over members' rights. To take it a step further, by taking any action affecting access to the House without advising all members equally and in a timely way, the Speaker himself has breached the privileges of members. He has taken the House on his back in a way which is even more dangerous than the actions of the others.
I may risk a citation for contempt on this point, but until I have advice to the contrary, I conclude that Mr. Speaker has acted improperly. He should apologize publicly or resign without delay.
For his part, the Government House Leader, when he finally rose to address a point of privilege cited comments made by the former premier, Roger Grimes following 9/11. What Mr. Byrne failed to point out is that the heightened security measures imposed at the time did not include restrictions on the House of Assembly or indeed of government buildings other than that visitors sign into a log book. Mr. Byrne's point is irrelevant and ignores a more substantial failure of the House generally to secure order for its proceedings. As Government House Leader he ought to know better.
It seems odd to me that no person has been thrown in jail over this whole affair and left there legally until the whole matter settles down. Ringleaders of riots used to be identified as "every fifth man"; the same might apply here. Let the lawyers sort it out after order has been restored. If the Sergeant at Arms and her assistants cannot make order, then the police may be called.
One way or another, the House rules must be applied to preserve the proper, democratic and effective functioning of the legislature.
But most importantly, let no one - neither Premier, nor Speaker nor pot-hauler - seize control of the legislature irrespective of the motives.
The legislature is the body of our democracy. Its proper operation is the spine.
Anyone who treats the legislature with contempt and disrespect treats me as a voter in the same way.
He or she ought to vacate its premises, stranger or no.
20 April 2005
19 April 2005
Warren Kinsella - smelling headlines
Warren Kinsella has appeared in various places where people are looking into actions at the federal public works department. He used to be executive assistant to the minister just before the sponsorship program started but while other actions were going on that have come under scrunity.
Warren's also a dramatic little fellow, with a flair for genuine self-promotion. I am a rank amateur in comparison to Kicking ass, Kinsella's lightweight book of a couple of years ago. That's the book that sits in plain sight on the bookshelf of political poseurs across the country and holds up the outhouse window at the cabin for the rest of us.
Yesterday's Kinsella testimony before a Commons committee looking at polling contracts was vintage. Tons of contrived intrigue. When asked about people being threatened, Kinsella drops in a totally unrelated tale of a mysterious phone call Kinsella claims to have received a mere moments before showing up. The supposed threat? That the caller would disavow whatever testimony Kinsella gave.
No breaking of legs.
No "we know where you live and where your kids go to school."
Nope.
The big threat: "I'll deny everything."
Obviously comparisons the Cons have been making between Liberals in Quebec and the mob are grossly overblown. Can you imagine say a Joe Pesci or a Bobbie de Niro calling up some guy about to rat them out?
Pesci: " Listen you little rat f***. No matter what you say, I am gonna stick my tongue out and blow raspberries.
So if you know what's good for you, you'll stop.
No matter what you say, I'll disavow you.
Calleee: Sorry, I just lost that last bit on the cell phone. Did you say disembowel me?
Pesci: Ewwwww. No. Don't be gross. I said disavow - d-i-s-a-v-o-w- as in deny. As in state words to the contrary."
Hurt me; whip me; call me Warren.
This is the stuff of Monty Python and the Spanish Inquisition not a serious parliamentary committee hearing into supposed wrong-doing.
Cripes, Warren, did you forget the Comfy Chair? Have the Cons got all the stuffing up one end of the Soft Cushion? Where exactly is Cardinal Fang, anyway?
To make matters all that much worse, there were the members of the committee looking appalled that someone would threaten witnesses. I think I heard audible gasps of shock. I'd call the whole thing a put-up job, but even that idea would be too bizarre for Warren Kinsella. It would mean a guy involved in battling separatists had to feed a question to a Blochead in order to whisper his tale of threats.
Meanwhile over at The Source of All Wisdom, otherwise known as Warren's blog, the man is threatening to sue Scott Reid for public comments after the Kinsella performance. (If you didn't see the tented fingers and hushed voice appearing by measures contrite or sincere, as appropriate, you missed a Juno award in the making. Warren's voice dropped to a mere whisper at several points, an old trick to draw in an audience already sucked in by your earlier theatrics and emphasize the melo-dramatic nature of the testimony. Perhaps Warren was conveying genuine fear that he would be "disavowed". Perhaps he was remembering his days treading the boards.)
By the way, Scott's heinous crime was to offer the opinion that Warren was telling lies. Maybe there is a case. We'll see.
I am not sure Warren is fabricating everything he said. Not being tied to either the Chretienites or the Martinites, I can look at Warren without animus. At the end of it all, I found his testimony lacking in credibility and perhaps in veracity. There was sufficient cause to doubt the accuracy of his accounts.
And in plain English: what I heard yesterday was a load of overblown, melodramatic bullshit. A least the bit about threats was bullshit. The rest of it was so burdened by Warren's "interpretation" - coming as a supplicant, for example - that I figure the guy should have written pot-boilers instead of briefing notes.
It got to the point where I could imagine former Kinsella university dates across the country pondering once again how much smaller Kinsella inches seem to be than the ones ordinary mortals use to measure stuff.
Ah well, there is a reason why government buildings are known among Ottawa types as Disneyland on the Rideau.
Oh yeah, and if you scroll down Warren's blog today, you can see Warren denying that he ever claimed he was threatened, slagging anybody connected to the current crowd of Liberals and finally claiming that he actually hates the limelight, like any good political backroom hack is supposed to.
Given Warren's public efforts to avoid anonymity, I find that last Kinsella claim as hard to swallow as anything else.
For another take on Warren, take a look at Damien Penny. The Corner Brook guy who is probably the province's most eclectic and widely known blogger has a set of links to the others who have either taken a swipe at Warren or felt his wrath.
Warren's also a dramatic little fellow, with a flair for genuine self-promotion. I am a rank amateur in comparison to Kicking ass, Kinsella's lightweight book of a couple of years ago. That's the book that sits in plain sight on the bookshelf of political poseurs across the country and holds up the outhouse window at the cabin for the rest of us.
Yesterday's Kinsella testimony before a Commons committee looking at polling contracts was vintage. Tons of contrived intrigue. When asked about people being threatened, Kinsella drops in a totally unrelated tale of a mysterious phone call Kinsella claims to have received a mere moments before showing up. The supposed threat? That the caller would disavow whatever testimony Kinsella gave.
No breaking of legs.
No "we know where you live and where your kids go to school."
Nope.
The big threat: "I'll deny everything."
Obviously comparisons the Cons have been making between Liberals in Quebec and the mob are grossly overblown. Can you imagine say a Joe Pesci or a Bobbie de Niro calling up some guy about to rat them out?
Pesci: " Listen you little rat f***. No matter what you say, I am gonna stick my tongue out and blow raspberries.
So if you know what's good for you, you'll stop.
No matter what you say, I'll disavow you.
Calleee: Sorry, I just lost that last bit on the cell phone. Did you say disembowel me?
Pesci: Ewwwww. No. Don't be gross. I said disavow - d-i-s-a-v-o-w- as in deny. As in state words to the contrary."
Hurt me; whip me; call me Warren.
This is the stuff of Monty Python and the Spanish Inquisition not a serious parliamentary committee hearing into supposed wrong-doing.
Cripes, Warren, did you forget the Comfy Chair? Have the Cons got all the stuffing up one end of the Soft Cushion? Where exactly is Cardinal Fang, anyway?
To make matters all that much worse, there were the members of the committee looking appalled that someone would threaten witnesses. I think I heard audible gasps of shock. I'd call the whole thing a put-up job, but even that idea would be too bizarre for Warren Kinsella. It would mean a guy involved in battling separatists had to feed a question to a Blochead in order to whisper his tale of threats.
Meanwhile over at The Source of All Wisdom, otherwise known as Warren's blog, the man is threatening to sue Scott Reid for public comments after the Kinsella performance. (If you didn't see the tented fingers and hushed voice appearing by measures contrite or sincere, as appropriate, you missed a Juno award in the making. Warren's voice dropped to a mere whisper at several points, an old trick to draw in an audience already sucked in by your earlier theatrics and emphasize the melo-dramatic nature of the testimony. Perhaps Warren was conveying genuine fear that he would be "disavowed". Perhaps he was remembering his days treading the boards.)
By the way, Scott's heinous crime was to offer the opinion that Warren was telling lies. Maybe there is a case. We'll see.
I am not sure Warren is fabricating everything he said. Not being tied to either the Chretienites or the Martinites, I can look at Warren without animus. At the end of it all, I found his testimony lacking in credibility and perhaps in veracity. There was sufficient cause to doubt the accuracy of his accounts.
And in plain English: what I heard yesterday was a load of overblown, melodramatic bullshit. A least the bit about threats was bullshit. The rest of it was so burdened by Warren's "interpretation" - coming as a supplicant, for example - that I figure the guy should have written pot-boilers instead of briefing notes.
It got to the point where I could imagine former Kinsella university dates across the country pondering once again how much smaller Kinsella inches seem to be than the ones ordinary mortals use to measure stuff.
Ah well, there is a reason why government buildings are known among Ottawa types as Disneyland on the Rideau.
Oh yeah, and if you scroll down Warren's blog today, you can see Warren denying that he ever claimed he was threatened, slagging anybody connected to the current crowd of Liberals and finally claiming that he actually hates the limelight, like any good political backroom hack is supposed to.
Given Warren's public efforts to avoid anonymity, I find that last Kinsella claim as hard to swallow as anything else.
For another take on Warren, take a look at Damien Penny. The Corner Brook guy who is probably the province's most eclectic and widely known blogger has a set of links to the others who have either taken a swipe at Warren or felt his wrath.
What happened to conduct prejudicial?
Seems that the soldier accused of deserting the Canadian Forces a few months ago has been charged by the National Investigative Service, after all.
Bravo, tetes de viande!
He's been charged with desertion, absenting himself without permission (that's a back-up in case they can't get desertion), and with theft of government property, namely the laptop with which he absconded.
The news release itself is a little sparse and of course, since the DND site redesign, anyone wanting to find DND news releases has to hunt around for them.
Oh yes, and contrary to the release, the JAG website doesn't have any details of the charges. In fact the court martial calendar that used to be published in the DND site seems to have disappeared entirely.
And for some bizarre reason, the NIS haven't charged the running man with the standard Section 129 charge. That's conduct prejudicial to the good order and discipline of the Canadian Forces.
If all else fails, that one might work.
Bravo, tetes de viande!
He's been charged with desertion, absenting himself without permission (that's a back-up in case they can't get desertion), and with theft of government property, namely the laptop with which he absconded.
The news release itself is a little sparse and of course, since the DND site redesign, anyone wanting to find DND news releases has to hunt around for them.
Oh yes, and contrary to the release, the JAG website doesn't have any details of the charges. In fact the court martial calendar that used to be published in the DND site seems to have disappeared entirely.
And for some bizarre reason, the NIS haven't charged the running man with the standard Section 129 charge. That's conduct prejudicial to the good order and discipline of the Canadian Forces.
If all else fails, that one might work.
Acting alive will doom Liberals: Harper
In the latest twist in the ongoing election speculation from Ottawa, Conservative Party leader says any Liberal who breathes, twitches, emits any identifiable brainwaves or otherwise acts in a living manner will trigger an election. He said that despite the fact Canadians elected Paul Martin's Liberal party as the national government, only the Conservative Opposition can hijack the operations of government and hold up legislation in the midst of needless election worrying.
Ok. I exaggerate.
But only just a bit.
Looking at the Globe this morning, I can see why Stephen Harper is upset at the Liberal government for re-scheduling the so-called Opposition day in the Commons this week.
But Stephan Harper, the elitist, is quickly discovering that the world does not dance to his tune and his tune alone. In fact, there are some legitimate parliamentary moves the Liberals have to frustrate Harper's efforts to become prime minister without really earning the job.
"If they want to try and govern without giving the opposition a democratic vote week after week after week, I think they are just signing their own death warrant," [Harper] said [in the Globe and Mail story.]
Any time a bill is brought before the House this week, next week, any week, the opposition parties get to vote on it as democratically as possible. In fact, there may well be a couple of opportunities to bring down the government before the Conservatives preferred time-table date of mid-May.
Look at Harper's language though: death warrant. Politicians don't just toss out words by accident. Leaders like Harper pick them. They get fed sound bites - phrases written by someone else and designed to appeal to specific audiences.
So there's Harper and his death warrant. That's the death warrant he's liked to wave these past few weeks as if Harper and Harper alone could execute Paul Martin for unspecified and unproven crimes, political and otherwise. Judge, Jury and Executioner Stephen Harper relishing his self-appointed status.
One of the many problems for Harper, of course is the fundamental clash between what he said about bringing down the government and the intentions that are obviously bringing out the nasty streak in him. Harper said he wouldn't vote non-confidence in the government until the public said they wanted a change. Every single recent poll says Canadians don't want an election by an overwhelming margin. Yet, Harper keeps waving around his death warrant for Martin.
Oh yes, and in a move reminiscent of his arrogance from the last federal election, Harper also has pulled together a transition team to help him take power in Ottawa.
Here's a clue, Stevie, it's our money, just like Preston Manning used to have to remind you every time you whined about having to explain your brilliant economic theories to the great unwashed out here.
and in the same way it is our call, not yours on who gets to be the next Prime Minister.
When Canadians want an election, they'll let you know loudly and clearly.
In the meantime, take off the hood, tell Mackay to put away his axe and get those back-room guys to stop building a scaffold.
Get down to the business of parliament.
And fire the idiot who fed you the line about death warrants.
Ok. I exaggerate.
But only just a bit.
Looking at the Globe this morning, I can see why Stephen Harper is upset at the Liberal government for re-scheduling the so-called Opposition day in the Commons this week.
But Stephan Harper, the elitist, is quickly discovering that the world does not dance to his tune and his tune alone. In fact, there are some legitimate parliamentary moves the Liberals have to frustrate Harper's efforts to become prime minister without really earning the job.
"If they want to try and govern without giving the opposition a democratic vote week after week after week, I think they are just signing their own death warrant," [Harper] said [in the Globe and Mail story.]
Any time a bill is brought before the House this week, next week, any week, the opposition parties get to vote on it as democratically as possible. In fact, there may well be a couple of opportunities to bring down the government before the Conservatives preferred time-table date of mid-May.
Look at Harper's language though: death warrant. Politicians don't just toss out words by accident. Leaders like Harper pick them. They get fed sound bites - phrases written by someone else and designed to appeal to specific audiences.
So there's Harper and his death warrant. That's the death warrant he's liked to wave these past few weeks as if Harper and Harper alone could execute Paul Martin for unspecified and unproven crimes, political and otherwise. Judge, Jury and Executioner Stephen Harper relishing his self-appointed status.
One of the many problems for Harper, of course is the fundamental clash between what he said about bringing down the government and the intentions that are obviously bringing out the nasty streak in him. Harper said he wouldn't vote non-confidence in the government until the public said they wanted a change. Every single recent poll says Canadians don't want an election by an overwhelming margin. Yet, Harper keeps waving around his death warrant for Martin.
Oh yes, and in a move reminiscent of his arrogance from the last federal election, Harper also has pulled together a transition team to help him take power in Ottawa.
Here's a clue, Stevie, it's our money, just like Preston Manning used to have to remind you every time you whined about having to explain your brilliant economic theories to the great unwashed out here.
and in the same way it is our call, not yours on who gets to be the next Prime Minister.
When Canadians want an election, they'll let you know loudly and clearly.
In the meantime, take off the hood, tell Mackay to put away his axe and get those back-room guys to stop building a scaffold.
Get down to the business of parliament.
And fire the idiot who fed you the line about death warrants.
18 April 2005
Province knew about rocket launch on 31 Mar 05
CBC news reports today that the provincial government knew about the Titan rocket launch as early as 31 March 2005. But for some reason that information didn't make it to Premier Danny Williams until 05 April 05, more than a week later.
Officials are said to be investigating the reasons for the delay.
As noted here last week, the problem is a systemic one within government and will need more than a quickie "review" to fix. It involves more than just the supposed delay in passing information to the premier.
It should involve how information is gathered, assessed and acted on. The review should include development of an integrated provincial emergency plan, similar to the ones in Nova Scotia and British Columbia.
In addition, the review should address specific issues that rose during the Titan case. These would include the collapse of public emergency communications on the first day of the crisis in a way that mirrored the collapse on September 11, 2001.
Smart organizations always go through a lessons-learned process after every incident. The one for the provincial government should be much more detailed and has much greater implications than the CBC story suggests.
As for the rest of the story on CBC - the launch delay - there's nothing surprising in that. The delay is caused by technical problems, as we reported here shortly after the initial launch delay.
Expect more.
Officials are said to be investigating the reasons for the delay.
As noted here last week, the problem is a systemic one within government and will need more than a quickie "review" to fix. It involves more than just the supposed delay in passing information to the premier.
It should involve how information is gathered, assessed and acted on. The review should include development of an integrated provincial emergency plan, similar to the ones in Nova Scotia and British Columbia.
In addition, the review should address specific issues that rose during the Titan case. These would include the collapse of public emergency communications on the first day of the crisis in a way that mirrored the collapse on September 11, 2001.
Smart organizations always go through a lessons-learned process after every incident. The one for the provincial government should be much more detailed and has much greater implications than the CBC story suggests.
As for the rest of the story on CBC - the launch delay - there's nothing surprising in that. The delay is caused by technical problems, as we reported here shortly after the initial launch delay.
Expect more.
SBX platform takes shape
A few weeks ago, I posted some information on an X band radar system being built in Corpus Christi Texas, for the American ballistic missile defence program. The SBX consists of an X band radar (Manufactured by Raytheon) and associated facilities being mounted on a semi-submersible platform originally designed for sea-bed oil drilling.
Well, apparently the mating of the topsides and rig have taken place, as this extremely brief story indicates.
Here's a more detailed version, datelined 05 Apr 05. It's actually the complete release from Raytheon as carried by a news release distribution service.
Rather than cut and paste the URL to the photo, here's the link. It's a mighty impressive thing.
Well, apparently the mating of the topsides and rig have taken place, as this extremely brief story indicates.
Here's a more detailed version, datelined 05 Apr 05. It's actually the complete release from Raytheon as carried by a news release distribution service.
Rather than cut and paste the URL to the photo, here's the link. It's a mighty impressive thing.
Tee minus whenever and holding
While the last Canaveral Titan mission (B-30) is on hold, it is apparently going to happen this week.
Since people are still hunting for information - my counter program tells me so) I thought I'd toss up some older but still curious stuff.
For example, this news story (datelined 08 Apr 05 - two days into the crisis) ledes with the oil companies being asked to evacuate by the rigs by government. An unidentified spokesperson for ExxonMobil" says that the rig kept producing as usual at that point, but that the company would comply with any order to evacuate.
Odd thing is that the Canada Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board release, issued on 07 Apr 05, says something a little bit different."The production operators HMDC and Petro-Canada informed the board of their plans to remove personnel, offload crude inventory and shut-in production over the weekend as a precautionary measure as debris from a rocket launch may fall within 15 nautical miles of the Hibernia platform. The drilling rig GSF Grand Banks will be towed out of the potential hazard zone."
The crisis story was picked up with varying degrees of accuracy by most of the major news services including Reuters and United Press International. Here's a UPI story, for example, that made the Washington Times. Here's one that made Agence France Press, albeit in English. Here's a Reuters one that was posted to DefenseNews.com.
Someone should find a decent-sized boat and sell tickets to spend the launch and impact time bobbing around near the platforms, just in case. At the very least there might be a decent light show as the sustainer falls into the ocean - likely up to 100 nautical miles away from the oilfields.
Since people are still hunting for information - my counter program tells me so) I thought I'd toss up some older but still curious stuff.
For example, this news story (datelined 08 Apr 05 - two days into the crisis) ledes with the oil companies being asked to evacuate by the rigs by government. An unidentified spokesperson for ExxonMobil" says that the rig kept producing as usual at that point, but that the company would comply with any order to evacuate.
Odd thing is that the Canada Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board release, issued on 07 Apr 05, says something a little bit different."The production operators HMDC and Petro-Canada informed the board of their plans to remove personnel, offload crude inventory and shut-in production over the weekend as a precautionary measure as debris from a rocket launch may fall within 15 nautical miles of the Hibernia platform. The drilling rig GSF Grand Banks will be towed out of the potential hazard zone."
The crisis story was picked up with varying degrees of accuracy by most of the major news services including Reuters and United Press International. Here's a UPI story, for example, that made the Washington Times. Here's one that made Agence France Press, albeit in English. Here's a Reuters one that was posted to DefenseNews.com.
Someone should find a decent-sized boat and sell tickets to spend the launch and impact time bobbing around near the platforms, just in case. At the very least there might be a decent light show as the sustainer falls into the ocean - likely up to 100 nautical miles away from the oilfields.
17 April 2005
Voice activated - Your scribe goes TV
For those who can access Rogers Cable community channels in Newfoundland and Labrador take a gander at their call-in show, Voice Activated, Sunday 17 April 2005, 8:30 PM to 9:30 PM (rebroadcast immediately following).
Here's the the e-mail from producer/host Greg Locke, with some minor editorial changes:
Aaahhhh, the game of politics.
The election drums are starting to beat in Ottawa. If Martin's Liberal government falls at the hands of the opposition parties before passing Bill C-43, Newfoundland and Labrador will be without its new accord deal and the two billion dollars it thought it had for last month's budget.
The Liberals and the Conservatives are playing a game of chicken and its Newfoundland and Labrador that is the deer caught in the headlights.
Who does your MP represent?
Where do we fit into the Canadian Confederation?
Tactics, strategy and flanking maneuvers, we'll talk about our great game and how Newfoundland and Labrador will fare when the dust settles.
Joining us for this discussion will be:
James McGrath, a former Progressive Conservative member of parliament, Federal fisheries minister in Joe Clark's government and a former lieutenant governor of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Nancy Riche, long time NDPer and labour organizer. She was the secretary-treasurer and executive vice president of the Canadian Labour Congress representing 2.3 million members across Canada.
Ed Hollett, principal of Gryphon Public Affairs, a public policy consulting firm in St. John's. Ed was also special assistant to Premier Clyde Wells from 1989-1996.
It's a call-in show and who the hell wants the three of us blathering for an hour all by ourselves?
Here's the the e-mail from producer/host Greg Locke, with some minor editorial changes:
Aaahhhh, the game of politics.
The election drums are starting to beat in Ottawa. If Martin's Liberal government falls at the hands of the opposition parties before passing Bill C-43, Newfoundland and Labrador will be without its new accord deal and the two billion dollars it thought it had for last month's budget.
The Liberals and the Conservatives are playing a game of chicken and its Newfoundland and Labrador that is the deer caught in the headlights.
Who does your MP represent?
Where do we fit into the Canadian Confederation?
Tactics, strategy and flanking maneuvers, we'll talk about our great game and how Newfoundland and Labrador will fare when the dust settles.
Joining us for this discussion will be:
James McGrath, a former Progressive Conservative member of parliament, Federal fisheries minister in Joe Clark's government and a former lieutenant governor of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Nancy Riche, long time NDPer and labour organizer. She was the secretary-treasurer and executive vice president of the Canadian Labour Congress representing 2.3 million members across Canada.
Ed Hollett, principal of Gryphon Public Affairs, a public policy consulting firm in St. John's. Ed was also special assistant to Premier Clyde Wells from 1989-1996.
-30-
Break out the popcorn and get on the telephone.It's a call-in show and who the hell wants the three of us blathering for an hour all by ourselves?
16 April 2005
Does there have to be an election?
In the simplest answer, no there doesn't have to be an election just because a minority government loses a vote of confidence..
At least, not in the British parliamentary tradition which Canada follows there doesn't.
If Stephen Harper's personal ambition gets the better of him very soon, he may think he is forcing an election to win a majority government, but he might not be. I say personal ambition by the way because Canadians do say two things in every single poll taken recently: one - they think Paul Martin is a better PM than Harper and two - they don't want an election by a huge margin.
In a minority parliament, indeed in any parliament, the Governor General may ask the leader of any party in the House to see if he or she can find its confidence. By custom, next in line after Martin would Harper.
So If the government is defeated soon on a budget bill or confidence motion, young Mr. Harper may find himself on the way to Rideau Hall with the offer he wants: form a government.
What to do?
Well according CTV this morning, Harper things that idea is a bit unlikely. "Asked about this prospect Friday, Harper sounded dubious. "That would be feasible only under extraordinary circumstances," he told reporters.
That scenario, says [CTV Ottawa bureau chief Robert] Fife, is "not very likely given the poll numbers -- I think the answer would be a resounding no."
The poll numbers have nothing to do with it, Bob. And if they did, they would support a Harper minority as easily as anything else. The public may wish for a changed of administration without going through the expense of an election. In the current setting they can have that. Have it, that is, if Mr. Harper and his Conservatives are actually democratic enough to follow the will of the people.
See that's the underlying thing about Stephen Harper, the academic/intellectual cum political leader. He isn't really a democrat. He's an elitist. When he says that he has to prop up this government until the people want something else, what he means is this: I'll stay here until you people get the point that I want to be PM with a majority government. He means he'll hang around until the rest of us agree with his opinion. In the meantime, he and the media will bombard everyone with speculation about the imminent fall of the government and the election that must follow.
Problem is, both the media and Harper have it dead wrong.
Martin and the Liberals may get defeated in the House.
But that doesn't mean an automatic election.
Nope.
Maybe the experience of being a minority PM would help Harper's perspective. Canadians have already given him his marching orders and they keep doing it in opinion polls: stop shagging around Steve and learn to play well with others.
We don't really care that you want a majority government. You're supposed to be in Ottawa passing legislation rather than in Cambridge learning how to press shirts in some dorky campaign photo-op.
Democracy isn't real about what you want, Steve.
It's about what the voters want.
and, as Preston Manning reminded you once, that's because it's our money.
Democracy, like payback, can be a mother, Steve.
Suck it up and get down to work.
Oh yeah:
Easy on the starch.
At least, not in the British parliamentary tradition which Canada follows there doesn't.
If Stephen Harper's personal ambition gets the better of him very soon, he may think he is forcing an election to win a majority government, but he might not be. I say personal ambition by the way because Canadians do say two things in every single poll taken recently: one - they think Paul Martin is a better PM than Harper and two - they don't want an election by a huge margin.
In a minority parliament, indeed in any parliament, the Governor General may ask the leader of any party in the House to see if he or she can find its confidence. By custom, next in line after Martin would Harper.
So If the government is defeated soon on a budget bill or confidence motion, young Mr. Harper may find himself on the way to Rideau Hall with the offer he wants: form a government.
What to do?
Well according CTV this morning, Harper things that idea is a bit unlikely. "Asked about this prospect Friday, Harper sounded dubious. "That would be feasible only under extraordinary circumstances," he told reporters.
That scenario, says [CTV Ottawa bureau chief Robert] Fife, is "not very likely given the poll numbers -- I think the answer would be a resounding no."
The poll numbers have nothing to do with it, Bob. And if they did, they would support a Harper minority as easily as anything else. The public may wish for a changed of administration without going through the expense of an election. In the current setting they can have that. Have it, that is, if Mr. Harper and his Conservatives are actually democratic enough to follow the will of the people.
See that's the underlying thing about Stephen Harper, the academic/intellectual cum political leader. He isn't really a democrat. He's an elitist. When he says that he has to prop up this government until the people want something else, what he means is this: I'll stay here until you people get the point that I want to be PM with a majority government. He means he'll hang around until the rest of us agree with his opinion. In the meantime, he and the media will bombard everyone with speculation about the imminent fall of the government and the election that must follow.
Problem is, both the media and Harper have it dead wrong.
Martin and the Liberals may get defeated in the House.
But that doesn't mean an automatic election.
Nope.
Maybe the experience of being a minority PM would help Harper's perspective. Canadians have already given him his marching orders and they keep doing it in opinion polls: stop shagging around Steve and learn to play well with others.
We don't really care that you want a majority government. You're supposed to be in Ottawa passing legislation rather than in Cambridge learning how to press shirts in some dorky campaign photo-op.
Democracy isn't real about what you want, Steve.
It's about what the voters want.
and, as Preston Manning reminded you once, that's because it's our money.
Democracy, like payback, can be a mother, Steve.
Suck it up and get down to work.
Oh yeah:
Easy on the starch.
15 April 2005
Is Loyola Hearn changing seats?
It's always entertaining when Loyola Hearn, the absentee member of parliament for St. John's South-Mount Pearl speaks up for his constituents.
VOCM has him this evening complaining about plans to close 86 rural post offices in Newfoundland and Labrador.
1. What are the odds that none of the post offices on the list are in his riding?
2. What are the odds some of the offices on the list are close to his home in Renews, about two hours drive south of his riding?
3. What are the odds that most of the post offices on the list are ones where the population it serves has dropped dramatically such that there is less of a demand for service or that there might be other ways to deliver mail and keep up the level of service without an actual Canada Post postal office?
4. What are the odds says Loyola is pumping this one because there is a rumour of an election?
But here's one that is a 100% guarantee:
Loyola Hearn isn't jumping up and down to get his own party to vote for millions of dollars in cash for the cities and the people that actually are in his current riding.
So therefore, I ask:
5. What are the odds Loyola won't be standing for election in St. John's South-Mount Pearl in the next federal election?
VOCM has him this evening complaining about plans to close 86 rural post offices in Newfoundland and Labrador.
1. What are the odds that none of the post offices on the list are in his riding?
2. What are the odds some of the offices on the list are close to his home in Renews, about two hours drive south of his riding?
3. What are the odds that most of the post offices on the list are ones where the population it serves has dropped dramatically such that there is less of a demand for service or that there might be other ways to deliver mail and keep up the level of service without an actual Canada Post postal office?
4. What are the odds says Loyola is pumping this one because there is a rumour of an election?
But here's one that is a 100% guarantee:
Loyola Hearn isn't jumping up and down to get his own party to vote for millions of dollars in cash for the cities and the people that actually are in his current riding.
So therefore, I ask:
5. What are the odds Loyola won't be standing for election in St. John's South-Mount Pearl in the next federal election?
Rocket Man - The Movie and other loose ends
Ironic given the recent flap, Newfoundland and Labrador has played a key role in Titan missile launches from Florida through a communications relay point in Argentia. The site was built in 1993 and continues operation as part of the Florida missile launch complex's range instrumentation system.
That system allows continuous communications with the launch vehicle. In the event of any problems with the launch, data from Argentia would allow the launch controllers to make a decision about destroying the rocket and payload.
and now for the trivia...
Ok, so maybe some of you are growing tired of the whole Titan 4B launch story, but as a guy who grew up when men on rockets were going to the moon, there is something about the whole thing that still captures my imagination.
The movie: Here is a link to NASA and some footage (no audio) in mpg format from the night launch of the Cassini probe. This launch used a Titan 4B and it is damned impressive. For those who may have missed it, the B-30 mission that caused such a fuss here this past week will be a night launch.
Note especially that towards the end of this clip, there is a bit of a flash. That is the solid fuel boosters separating a mere two minutes into the flight, on schedule. They drop back to the ocean. The payload is then taken to orbit by the sustainer, a liquid fueled vehicle based on the old Titan intercontinental ballistic missile.
The impact: I still haven't been able to confirm whether or not that sustainer breaks up on re-entry or lands intact. One source I'd trust has it that the thing comes down in one piece. That's actually better than bits and pieces, since there is an even higher level of confidence in where one big piece will go, as opposed to a bunch of little ones.
Personally, in that scenario, I'd still think there is almost no chance of any kind of explosion form whatever fuel remains on board, if any.
Tracking ships and launch monitoring: Having invested a lot of money into the rockets and the payloads, and as part of an overall monitoring system, the United States operates a number of missile tracking ships in the Atlantic and Pacific that spend their time down range during a launch gathering data. They feed back to the launch control centre so that there is never a time when the launch authorities don't know what is going on. It's part of the overall safety program to ensure launches are safe and that in the event of a problem, accurate information is flowing back to Florida in case the rocket must be destroyed in flight.
Here's one link. Scroll down to see all the vessel types. If memory serves, Observation Island was one of the ships I visited in the early 80s when it and another vessel, the Range Sentinel, were open to public tours during a port call.
Here's a link that discusses revitalization of launch facilities in Florida. "The USNS Redstone was deactivated on 6 August 1993, but a new range site was completed in Argentia, Newfoundland in June 1993 to support northbound flights of the TITAN IV from Cape Canaveral." [Emphasis added]
I'll have to check to see if this site is still active. Have a read through this history though; it gives tons of useful information on operations at Canaveral including range monitoring.
I also found a Powerpoint presentation from the late 1990s on command and control issues related to re-invigoration of the Canaveral launch complexes. It includes a prominent mention of Argentia and the so-called high-inclination launches. US NAVFAC Argentia closed in the early 1990s so odds are high as I write this that the Titan related site remained active for some time afterward and may still be there working busily away.
Update:
Further searching turned up the name of a company that provides communications support to Canaveral under contract. It's current corporate information package includes work at a site in Argentina, Newfoundland.
Just for the heck of it, here's a link to photos of the Island and a tiny bit of Labrador taken from STS-96. Kinda hard not to get a little awestruck at the beauty of the Earth from space. I feel a Tom Hanks moment coming on our voyage from the Earth to the moon.
If anyone out there is old enough to remember, there used to be a tracking and communications station at Shoe Cove used for the Apollo and Apollo-Soyuz programs in the 1970s. There's not much left but here is a link to some pictures of the Shoe Cove site as it stood recently.
That system allows continuous communications with the launch vehicle. In the event of any problems with the launch, data from Argentia would allow the launch controllers to make a decision about destroying the rocket and payload.
and now for the trivia...
Ok, so maybe some of you are growing tired of the whole Titan 4B launch story, but as a guy who grew up when men on rockets were going to the moon, there is something about the whole thing that still captures my imagination.
The movie: Here is a link to NASA and some footage (no audio) in mpg format from the night launch of the Cassini probe. This launch used a Titan 4B and it is damned impressive. For those who may have missed it, the B-30 mission that caused such a fuss here this past week will be a night launch.
Note especially that towards the end of this clip, there is a bit of a flash. That is the solid fuel boosters separating a mere two minutes into the flight, on schedule. They drop back to the ocean. The payload is then taken to orbit by the sustainer, a liquid fueled vehicle based on the old Titan intercontinental ballistic missile.
The impact: I still haven't been able to confirm whether or not that sustainer breaks up on re-entry or lands intact. One source I'd trust has it that the thing comes down in one piece. That's actually better than bits and pieces, since there is an even higher level of confidence in where one big piece will go, as opposed to a bunch of little ones.
Personally, in that scenario, I'd still think there is almost no chance of any kind of explosion form whatever fuel remains on board, if any.
Tracking ships and launch monitoring: Having invested a lot of money into the rockets and the payloads, and as part of an overall monitoring system, the United States operates a number of missile tracking ships in the Atlantic and Pacific that spend their time down range during a launch gathering data. They feed back to the launch control centre so that there is never a time when the launch authorities don't know what is going on. It's part of the overall safety program to ensure launches are safe and that in the event of a problem, accurate information is flowing back to Florida in case the rocket must be destroyed in flight.
Here's one link. Scroll down to see all the vessel types. If memory serves, Observation Island was one of the ships I visited in the early 80s when it and another vessel, the Range Sentinel, were open to public tours during a port call.
Here's a link that discusses revitalization of launch facilities in Florida. "The USNS Redstone was deactivated on 6 August 1993, but a new range site was completed in Argentia, Newfoundland in June 1993 to support northbound flights of the TITAN IV from Cape Canaveral." [Emphasis added]
I'll have to check to see if this site is still active. Have a read through this history though; it gives tons of useful information on operations at Canaveral including range monitoring.
I also found a Powerpoint presentation from the late 1990s on command and control issues related to re-invigoration of the Canaveral launch complexes. It includes a prominent mention of Argentia and the so-called high-inclination launches. US NAVFAC Argentia closed in the early 1990s so odds are high as I write this that the Titan related site remained active for some time afterward and may still be there working busily away.
Update:
Further searching turned up the name of a company that provides communications support to Canaveral under contract. It's current corporate information package includes work at a site in Argentina, Newfoundland.
Just for the heck of it, here's a link to photos of the Island and a tiny bit of Labrador taken from STS-96. Kinda hard not to get a little awestruck at the beauty of the Earth from space. I feel a Tom Hanks moment coming on our voyage from the Earth to the moon.
If anyone out there is old enough to remember, there used to be a tracking and communications station at Shoe Cove used for the Apollo and Apollo-Soyuz programs in the 1970s. There's not much left but here is a link to some pictures of the Shoe Cove site as it stood recently.
-30-
Revsied from 22:00 hrs, 14 Apr 05 with new lede and additional information.
Stephen Harper - closet Liberal
Lust for power does strange things to people.
Some become even more firm in their convictions.
Others, like Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives, are prepared to abandon just about anything they once stood against just to get the keys to 24 Sussex.
Canadian Press is reporting and the local Telly has it on the front page. Harper and the Cons (sounds like a punk group - in Utah) have decided the Kyoto Accord is something they can get jiggy with. For those of you not interacting with 20 somethings and the younger set on a daily basis, that means they think Kyoto is peachy keen.
Only a few short weeks ago, Stephen, Blarney the Dinosaur (his Newfoundland lieutenant) and every other Con supporter were screaming that the Kyoto bits of Boll C-43 had to be separated from that big bill. That would let the Cons vote for the rest, including the new Equalization money from the offshore.
Now they love Kyoto.
And the Cons have decided that the offshore stuff now has to be split off from C-43 so they can vote for that. Without Kyoto stuff, all that's left is money for seniors, toddlers and of course Nova Scotia and this province.
Premier Danny Williams wants the offshore money bill passed quickly. Quickest way to pass it is the present form. What's the problem Stephen?
Well, it's really hard to know what the Cons really want - or really stand for - any more. They keep abandoning positions. At the Big Weekend, they just sat around and bored people to death. No one with an opinion was allowed to speak on anything of substance.
We can sort of figure out what they are against - individual human rights, for example.
And up until yesterday and the latest polls, they were opposed to environmental measures like Kyoto.
Hmmmmm.
I am starting to wonder if deep in his heart, Stephen Harper is really a Liberal. I bet he used to have PET pajamas with feet in 'em, kept the Collected Works of Louis St. Laurent by his teenage bedside and then later, when he was outwardly espousing radical economic philosophies he would go home every night and read 1970s budget speeches.
Conservatives used to attack Liberals for the maleability, for the willingness to stand for whatever was expedient, for whatever would win votes.
Well, those Conservatives are likely gobsmacked with the party they support these days.
Meanwhile, in southern Ontario today, Stephen Harper will be talking about how Ontario gets shafted by Ottawa and doesn't get a fair shake on Equalization or other federal transfers.
As I thumb through my copy of The Sayings and Wisdom of Brian Mulroney, I come across some reference to elderly practitioners of the oldest profession.
I concur, Brian. I concur wholeheartedly.
Some become even more firm in their convictions.
Others, like Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives, are prepared to abandon just about anything they once stood against just to get the keys to 24 Sussex.
Canadian Press is reporting and the local Telly has it on the front page. Harper and the Cons (sounds like a punk group - in Utah) have decided the Kyoto Accord is something they can get jiggy with. For those of you not interacting with 20 somethings and the younger set on a daily basis, that means they think Kyoto is peachy keen.
Only a few short weeks ago, Stephen, Blarney the Dinosaur (his Newfoundland lieutenant) and every other Con supporter were screaming that the Kyoto bits of Boll C-43 had to be separated from that big bill. That would let the Cons vote for the rest, including the new Equalization money from the offshore.
Now they love Kyoto.
And the Cons have decided that the offshore stuff now has to be split off from C-43 so they can vote for that. Without Kyoto stuff, all that's left is money for seniors, toddlers and of course Nova Scotia and this province.
Premier Danny Williams wants the offshore money bill passed quickly. Quickest way to pass it is the present form. What's the problem Stephen?
Well, it's really hard to know what the Cons really want - or really stand for - any more. They keep abandoning positions. At the Big Weekend, they just sat around and bored people to death. No one with an opinion was allowed to speak on anything of substance.
We can sort of figure out what they are against - individual human rights, for example.
And up until yesterday and the latest polls, they were opposed to environmental measures like Kyoto.
Hmmmmm.
I am starting to wonder if deep in his heart, Stephen Harper is really a Liberal. I bet he used to have PET pajamas with feet in 'em, kept the Collected Works of Louis St. Laurent by his teenage bedside and then later, when he was outwardly espousing radical economic philosophies he would go home every night and read 1970s budget speeches.
Conservatives used to attack Liberals for the maleability, for the willingness to stand for whatever was expedient, for whatever would win votes.
Well, those Conservatives are likely gobsmacked with the party they support these days.
Meanwhile, in southern Ontario today, Stephen Harper will be talking about how Ontario gets shafted by Ottawa and doesn't get a fair shake on Equalization or other federal transfers.
As I thumb through my copy of The Sayings and Wisdom of Brian Mulroney, I come across some reference to elderly practitioners of the oldest profession.
I concur, Brian. I concur wholeheartedly.
14 April 2005
Explosive Poll results
Do please provide me with relief.
In other words, give me a frickin break.
The Mother Corp has joined the screaming poll brigade. Having exhausted the use of the word explosive when mentioning Gomery testimony, they now have a poll of their own courtesy of Environics, a respectable crowd of number-mashers.
The headline would have you believe that the responses to the poll "suggest" the sponsorship scandal is being the most important issue in the country. The lede says something along the lines.
Thankfully the webgoddess gave the question and actual response levels.
Look at the column in the margin.
Health care is the number one concern of Canadians by a seven point margin ahead of "poor leadership" at 14. The only way you can get Gomery in there is to take the number three choice - i.e. Gomery at 10 percent - add that to the second choice and vie-oh-la as Archie Bunker used to say.
Minor problem: "poor government/leadership" and the Gomery thing are not necessarily one and the same.
This is called creative re-interpretation of numbers by the CBC news staff to produce an answer the data doesn't actually support. Undoubtedly, they will protests that their lumping is somehow valid, but does that make it accurate?
We can't tell because CBC didn't see fit to give us either the actual survey instrument (questionnaire) or a link to Environics where the background info might be kept.
When I look at the results they released, I see health care is still the biggest issue out there, substantially ahead of all others. I also notice that most people surveyed don't see the need for an election - 41% - while 34% feel Gomery would be the justification for calling it.
Now your humble scribbler is going to give you a link to Environics' own poll and their own release, issued just a week ago.
Look closely at this one since you have figures to compare them to from previous surveys administered in the same way using the same survey questions.
One thing to notice is that the "no reason for election response" has dropped a mere seven points in the CBC poll from the one Environics did about a week and a bit ago. That's hardly a catastrophic drop.
But if you really want to put their numbers in perspective look at the "sampling precision". By region it could be off by as much as nine percent in some provinces and is off by over six percent in Atlantic Canada.
Personally, I think this is the kind of polling that Diefenbaker had in mind when he made the crack about dogs.
Lemme go have a look at SES and see what they have to say.
More to follow.
In other words, give me a frickin break.
The Mother Corp has joined the screaming poll brigade. Having exhausted the use of the word explosive when mentioning Gomery testimony, they now have a poll of their own courtesy of Environics, a respectable crowd of number-mashers.
The headline would have you believe that the responses to the poll "suggest" the sponsorship scandal is being the most important issue in the country. The lede says something along the lines.
Thankfully the webgoddess gave the question and actual response levels.
Look at the column in the margin.
Health care is the number one concern of Canadians by a seven point margin ahead of "poor leadership" at 14. The only way you can get Gomery in there is to take the number three choice - i.e. Gomery at 10 percent - add that to the second choice and vie-oh-la as Archie Bunker used to say.
Minor problem: "poor government/leadership" and the Gomery thing are not necessarily one and the same.
This is called creative re-interpretation of numbers by the CBC news staff to produce an answer the data doesn't actually support. Undoubtedly, they will protests that their lumping is somehow valid, but does that make it accurate?
We can't tell because CBC didn't see fit to give us either the actual survey instrument (questionnaire) or a link to Environics where the background info might be kept.
When I look at the results they released, I see health care is still the biggest issue out there, substantially ahead of all others. I also notice that most people surveyed don't see the need for an election - 41% - while 34% feel Gomery would be the justification for calling it.
Now your humble scribbler is going to give you a link to Environics' own poll and their own release, issued just a week ago.
Look closely at this one since you have figures to compare them to from previous surveys administered in the same way using the same survey questions.
One thing to notice is that the "no reason for election response" has dropped a mere seven points in the CBC poll from the one Environics did about a week and a bit ago. That's hardly a catastrophic drop.
But if you really want to put their numbers in perspective look at the "sampling precision". By region it could be off by as much as nine percent in some provinces and is off by over six percent in Atlantic Canada.
Personally, I think this is the kind of polling that Diefenbaker had in mind when he made the crack about dogs.
Lemme go have a look at SES and see what they have to say.
More to follow.
Will we throw him a party?
As I keep hunting for places that carry Canadian Press releases for free, I found one here, courtesy of a link from Paul Wells' blog.
The story is about a former Joint Task Force 2 soldier who disappeared without a trace 21 months ago, only to turn up in Bangkok the other day at the Canadian Embassy there.
JTF 2 is an armed forces unit that specializes in counter-insurgency/anti-guerrilla warfare, anti-terror operations and the like. The Chretienites may have killed off the Canadian Airborne Regiment as a crisis management tactic, but we got back tons more capability in a unit of about the same size. Chretien can claim no credit for that silk purse from the sow's ear of the disbandment.
But I digress.
The point of this story that caught my eye was the fact the soldier was a demolitions expert who had years of training, operational experience and a laptop full of "how-to's_ when he went missing.
That and then the sort of low key way somebody from National Defence commented on it. To paraphrase: "While we still try to figure out what happened, we are just happy the guy is alive and safe in the arms of his family. We were kinda curious when he ran off, and we looked around for him for a while but hey, these things happen."
The Canadian Forces released the guy from the service in 2004, long before they knew what had become of him.
I am wondering why?
In other armies, deserters who are caught are treated like they should be: trial and jail. Desertion is a pretty serious offence and for one of Canada's best soldiers to do a runner like this is deeply troubling.
Why not just keep him in uniform and then throw the book at him when he comes back?
Maybe some JAG lawyer out there can fill me in a bit more on the techie issues. Being the good bureaucrats we are, Canadians probably got the guy off the books to keep him from building up pensionable time or something like that, hoping they could still throw him in jail if he showed up.
Then again, a guy who forced his way onto the bridge of an HMC ship with a loaded weapon wasn't charged with mutiny.
This is a story to keep track of.
The story is about a former Joint Task Force 2 soldier who disappeared without a trace 21 months ago, only to turn up in Bangkok the other day at the Canadian Embassy there.
JTF 2 is an armed forces unit that specializes in counter-insurgency/anti-guerrilla warfare, anti-terror operations and the like. The Chretienites may have killed off the Canadian Airborne Regiment as a crisis management tactic, but we got back tons more capability in a unit of about the same size. Chretien can claim no credit for that silk purse from the sow's ear of the disbandment.
But I digress.
The point of this story that caught my eye was the fact the soldier was a demolitions expert who had years of training, operational experience and a laptop full of "how-to's_ when he went missing.
That and then the sort of low key way somebody from National Defence commented on it. To paraphrase: "While we still try to figure out what happened, we are just happy the guy is alive and safe in the arms of his family. We were kinda curious when he ran off, and we looked around for him for a while but hey, these things happen."
The Canadian Forces released the guy from the service in 2004, long before they knew what had become of him.
I am wondering why?
In other armies, deserters who are caught are treated like they should be: trial and jail. Desertion is a pretty serious offence and for one of Canada's best soldiers to do a runner like this is deeply troubling.
Why not just keep him in uniform and then throw the book at him when he comes back?
Maybe some JAG lawyer out there can fill me in a bit more on the techie issues. Being the good bureaucrats we are, Canadians probably got the guy off the books to keep him from building up pensionable time or something like that, hoping they could still throw him in jail if he showed up.
Then again, a guy who forced his way onto the bridge of an HMC ship with a loaded weapon wasn't charged with mutiny.
This is a story to keep track of.
It only took a week - time for a public security advisor on the Hill
News this morning that the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, the offshore regulatory board and the oil companies have finally gathered enough information to go back to their regular jobs and stop panicking over the launch of an American rocket from Cape Canaveral.
Having spent now a total of 25 years dealing with defence and security issues both as part of my undergraduate and graduate studies and my work life, I'd draw everyone away from the cheap and easy conclusions here.
The simple fact remains that defence- and security- issues are on the provincial government's agenda on a daily basis. Historically, the provincial government has difficulty making accurate assessments of defence and security matters on its own - even though they can collect accurate information from a variety of sources. Instead, the government relies almost exclusively on getting things from Ottawa. That was one of the big problems in this instance.
In this instance, no threats were averted. There was no threat. It was a totally artificial crisis. But it does point to a fundamental problem in the province's ability to identify a crisis accurately, deploy resources and then address a crisis. This has nothing to do with this premier and this government: it is a chronic problem going back 25 years and more. I saw it during my time in the Tower.
For a case after my time, does anyone remember 9/11? While people have been busily patting themselves on the back, it was largely characterized by fumbles and some monumental gaffes. Some were minor; some, like actual physical security of the airport were serious. Some, like the silly spat with Ottawa over cots were based on exactly the sort of misinformation that led the Premier to go public in this instance, with predictable and avoidable responses.
Personally, I think it is time for government to undertake a public security review. There are at least three senior retired army generals from this province I can think of who would be available to take on the task. Other provinces did that sort of thing after 9/11.
Aside from anything they'd recommend, government needs to appoint a senior official as a direct advisor to the Premier on public safety and security, much like the new national security advisor to the Prime Minister. It's a specialist area; let's find someone who knows what they are talking about.
When there is another Titan booster scare, the security advisor can calm frayed nerves. By the same token, when something real happens, cabinet can be assured that they will be getting the most reliable information from the best sources, including their own. They can act with confidence in their information.
And it won't take a week to figure out something this simple. At the risk of prompting yet another couple of e-mails poking me, I will remind you that most of the basic questions the Premier asked were answered here either when he asked them or beforehand. When it came down to the self-destruct mechanism question yesterday, I actually threw up my hands in astonishment.
But hey. The fact is that readers of this blog had reliable, factual information on this booster from the get-go. Had I heard this story on Wednesday night - like government did - you would have rolled out of bed Thursday morning to a full briefing with your coffee. And you would have gone about your regular work-week unaffected by fear of things falling from the sky.
Note: This is actually a new posting, but I am including the text of one from yesterday in which I made some observations about this Titan episode. It is attached here since the two things are linked.
"Information levels up; anxiety levels down"
It was encouraging to see the Premier scrummed today expressing increasing comfort with the information he is getting about the upcoming Titan 4B launch on Sunday.
Over the past 24 hours or so, I have been getting a bit of clarity of my own on what the basic problem was. If there is any doubt or confusion from any earlier posts, let me try to put my conclusions as succinctly as possible.
1. It appears that neither the provincial government nor the oil companies noticed the number of rockets flying over the Grand Banks before.
2. Therefore, when information on this launch was handed to them, there was a legitimate and understandable "holy shit" reaction. Everybody here reacted as one would want them to react.
3. The Premier and others went searching for information, primarily from the federal government. Again, this is exactly what anyone would expect.
4. There is a limited or non-existent capability within the provincial government to make any independent assessments of defence- or security-related information that affect the province. I base this on my observations of this case and my knowledge of other cases from previous administrations going back 20 years. There is a systemic dependence on the feds. Yes, I know this is a federal area of responsibility but broader security issues like this are at least a joint responsibility.
5. The feds never really paid any attention to this launch for a variety of reasons. The simplest one is that officials at DND or Public Safety likely looked at the mission, calculated the risk and then decided there was no big deal here. They may have passed on the information to provincial Emergency Measures but it may have been flagged as "information purposes only", as opposed to "get ready to panic". Essentially, the federal interpretation of this event was the right one if they watched but didn't rush to action.
6. The Premier's ongoing frustration with this matter and his public comments stem for the basic lack of information he was getting. He either wasn't getting good briefings, what he was getting was crap, or he just didn't trust what he was hearing. Either way, he has a significant issue to deal with because...
7. The provincial government should be able to make some security-related assessments on its own using a variety of information sources. If the oil companies lacked information and were hopping up and down, the provincial government should have been able to calm them down somewhat. Then they could proceed to ask some focused, informed questions outside the glare of public scrutiny
8. If the Premier had received reliable information as early as Thursday, he may not have gone public as quickly as he did. As a consequence, he would have avoided putting everyone else on edge. Don't be surprised if the Americans were scared of law-suits. I noted that prospect days ago. As such they would become even more reluctant to share information, especially if they had any fear at all that a confidential briefing would be on CNN that night or the next day. Get lawyers involved: everyone's backside tightens.
9. On that basis it may well have been possible to defuse this matter as early as Saturday last week, i.e. 10 Apr 05, a mere three days after the initial scare.
10. As it is, the thing is finally settling down. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a decision taken to continue drilling as if nothing happened.
11. If anyone wants briefings on the launch licensing process for US rockets, the safety precautions and the international and domestic US legal issues, please let me know. I can easily deliver them to a group for an appropriate fee. After all that is one of the things I do for a living.
And yes, as you can expect me to say, just remember you read it here first.
Having spent now a total of 25 years dealing with defence and security issues both as part of my undergraduate and graduate studies and my work life, I'd draw everyone away from the cheap and easy conclusions here.
The simple fact remains that defence- and security- issues are on the provincial government's agenda on a daily basis. Historically, the provincial government has difficulty making accurate assessments of defence and security matters on its own - even though they can collect accurate information from a variety of sources. Instead, the government relies almost exclusively on getting things from Ottawa. That was one of the big problems in this instance.
In this instance, no threats were averted. There was no threat. It was a totally artificial crisis. But it does point to a fundamental problem in the province's ability to identify a crisis accurately, deploy resources and then address a crisis. This has nothing to do with this premier and this government: it is a chronic problem going back 25 years and more. I saw it during my time in the Tower.
For a case after my time, does anyone remember 9/11? While people have been busily patting themselves on the back, it was largely characterized by fumbles and some monumental gaffes. Some were minor; some, like actual physical security of the airport were serious. Some, like the silly spat with Ottawa over cots were based on exactly the sort of misinformation that led the Premier to go public in this instance, with predictable and avoidable responses.
Personally, I think it is time for government to undertake a public security review. There are at least three senior retired army generals from this province I can think of who would be available to take on the task. Other provinces did that sort of thing after 9/11.
Aside from anything they'd recommend, government needs to appoint a senior official as a direct advisor to the Premier on public safety and security, much like the new national security advisor to the Prime Minister. It's a specialist area; let's find someone who knows what they are talking about.
When there is another Titan booster scare, the security advisor can calm frayed nerves. By the same token, when something real happens, cabinet can be assured that they will be getting the most reliable information from the best sources, including their own. They can act with confidence in their information.
And it won't take a week to figure out something this simple. At the risk of prompting yet another couple of e-mails poking me, I will remind you that most of the basic questions the Premier asked were answered here either when he asked them or beforehand. When it came down to the self-destruct mechanism question yesterday, I actually threw up my hands in astonishment.
But hey. The fact is that readers of this blog had reliable, factual information on this booster from the get-go. Had I heard this story on Wednesday night - like government did - you would have rolled out of bed Thursday morning to a full briefing with your coffee. And you would have gone about your regular work-week unaffected by fear of things falling from the sky.
-30-
Note: This is actually a new posting, but I am including the text of one from yesterday in which I made some observations about this Titan episode. It is attached here since the two things are linked.
"Information levels up; anxiety levels down"
It was encouraging to see the Premier scrummed today expressing increasing comfort with the information he is getting about the upcoming Titan 4B launch on Sunday.
Over the past 24 hours or so, I have been getting a bit of clarity of my own on what the basic problem was. If there is any doubt or confusion from any earlier posts, let me try to put my conclusions as succinctly as possible.
1. It appears that neither the provincial government nor the oil companies noticed the number of rockets flying over the Grand Banks before.
2. Therefore, when information on this launch was handed to them, there was a legitimate and understandable "holy shit" reaction. Everybody here reacted as one would want them to react.
3. The Premier and others went searching for information, primarily from the federal government. Again, this is exactly what anyone would expect.
4. There is a limited or non-existent capability within the provincial government to make any independent assessments of defence- or security-related information that affect the province. I base this on my observations of this case and my knowledge of other cases from previous administrations going back 20 years. There is a systemic dependence on the feds. Yes, I know this is a federal area of responsibility but broader security issues like this are at least a joint responsibility.
5. The feds never really paid any attention to this launch for a variety of reasons. The simplest one is that officials at DND or Public Safety likely looked at the mission, calculated the risk and then decided there was no big deal here. They may have passed on the information to provincial Emergency Measures but it may have been flagged as "information purposes only", as opposed to "get ready to panic". Essentially, the federal interpretation of this event was the right one if they watched but didn't rush to action.
6. The Premier's ongoing frustration with this matter and his public comments stem for the basic lack of information he was getting. He either wasn't getting good briefings, what he was getting was crap, or he just didn't trust what he was hearing. Either way, he has a significant issue to deal with because...
7. The provincial government should be able to make some security-related assessments on its own using a variety of information sources. If the oil companies lacked information and were hopping up and down, the provincial government should have been able to calm them down somewhat. Then they could proceed to ask some focused, informed questions outside the glare of public scrutiny
8. If the Premier had received reliable information as early as Thursday, he may not have gone public as quickly as he did. As a consequence, he would have avoided putting everyone else on edge. Don't be surprised if the Americans were scared of law-suits. I noted that prospect days ago. As such they would become even more reluctant to share information, especially if they had any fear at all that a confidential briefing would be on CNN that night or the next day. Get lawyers involved: everyone's backside tightens.
9. On that basis it may well have been possible to defuse this matter as early as Saturday last week, i.e. 10 Apr 05, a mere three days after the initial scare.
10. As it is, the thing is finally settling down. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a decision taken to continue drilling as if nothing happened.
11. If anyone wants briefings on the launch licensing process for US rockets, the safety precautions and the international and domestic US legal issues, please let me know. I can easily deliver them to a group for an appropriate fee. After all that is one of the things I do for a living.
And yes, as you can expect me to say, just remember you read it here first.
13 April 2005
The bombs or bubbles bursting...
Two, count 'em two, comments this evening on my "you read it here first".
The first from a friend who reads these scribbles regularly at work - it's ok, it's apparently part of her job. She cautioned I shouldn't get too carried away with that idea.
A nod of the head in gratitude for that humbling reminder of my mortality.
And then there was the second one, the kick in the pants that finished the job.
Greg Locke, lately of Out of the Fog and Voice Activated at Rogers, and a guy who I have known for way too long, sent me an e-mail this evening. He advises that the Anna Nicole story was on OOTF last Wednesday night fully 24 hours before my posting.
Ok. Fine.
Point taken.
The first from a friend who reads these scribbles regularly at work - it's ok, it's apparently part of her job. She cautioned I shouldn't get too carried away with that idea.
A nod of the head in gratitude for that humbling reminder of my mortality.
And then there was the second one, the kick in the pants that finished the job.
Greg Locke, lately of Out of the Fog and Voice Activated at Rogers, and a guy who I have known for way too long, sent me an e-mail this evening. He advises that the Anna Nicole story was on OOTF last Wednesday night fully 24 hours before my posting.
Ok. Fine.
Point taken.
STS over the Grand Banks - belated math
For those who have been following this issue of rockets over the Grand Banks, here's a quick calculation of the space shuttle launches that have overflown the Grand Banks on the way to orbit.
That is, here are the numbers for the launches on an inclination between 51 degrees and 57 degrees.
It's 54. That includes every single one of the launches from 1981 until the Texas crash as well as the first one due in a couple of months, out to the ones on the planning books that haven't been finalized yet.
1. That's 54 out of 118 (by my count) or a total of 45.7%. Almost half the shuttle launches fly over the Grand Banks on launch. I am not including Titan, Atlas and Delta launches nor am I including any strictly military/naval ICBM or SLBM flights although I believe the latter ones tend to come from Vandenberg these days.
2. Number of incidents on launch in which the vehicle suffered a catastrophic failure: 1. The debris and the remains of the unfortunate crew landed in waters of Florida.
3. Number of catastrophic failures on re-entry: 1. Debris landed from California to eastern Texas.
4. Number of human casualties on the ground resulting from shuttle losses, excluding crew: ZERO.
Again, I am amazed that this information is in the public domain and yet people have been hopping up and down like this launch was the first one ever.
That is, here are the numbers for the launches on an inclination between 51 degrees and 57 degrees.
It's 54. That includes every single one of the launches from 1981 until the Texas crash as well as the first one due in a couple of months, out to the ones on the planning books that haven't been finalized yet.
1. That's 54 out of 118 (by my count) or a total of 45.7%. Almost half the shuttle launches fly over the Grand Banks on launch. I am not including Titan, Atlas and Delta launches nor am I including any strictly military/naval ICBM or SLBM flights although I believe the latter ones tend to come from Vandenberg these days.
2. Number of incidents on launch in which the vehicle suffered a catastrophic failure: 1. The debris and the remains of the unfortunate crew landed in waters of Florida.
3. Number of catastrophic failures on re-entry: 1. Debris landed from California to eastern Texas.
4. Number of human casualties on the ground resulting from shuttle losses, excluding crew: ZERO.
Again, I am amazed that this information is in the public domain and yet people have been hopping up and down like this launch was the first one ever.
First in space, too!
Ok, is it just me or is there a pattern developing in the you read it here first department?
I haven't been keeping a close score on my "firsts" but this Anna Nicole thing made me start to wonder if I just see things before others do. I'll refrain from another silicone and size joke in the interests of good taste.
No, I am not psychic or delusional - they're the same thing.
Nope.
I just got up this morning and read this story from Canadian Press, filed by Dene Moore.
Ms. Moore has found some obscure guy in some other part of the universe to tell her what - wait for it - you read here from a guy who works across the street from her office.
"But such a move seems odd because it's not the first time rockets have been fired over the East Coast oilfields, says Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst for The Teal Group, a U.S. aerospace and defence consulting firm."
Teal Group is a market intelligence firm - meaning they provide analysis to clients of a variety of issues in several aspects, like political, military, financial and social.
For the record, "market" intelligence is like any other form of intelligence. It requires gathering and then analyzing. In a simple sense what you have been getting in these pages is local intelligence analysis although not as detailed as my clients get.
See, cause that's the funny thing - one of the areas in which I practice is intelligence (information) and analysis. And, given my academic and military background, I do defence work.
So I'll be wandering across the street today to make sure that Dene is reading my blog.
She might actually get more information closer to home.
But you know, you read it here first.
I haven't been keeping a close score on my "firsts" but this Anna Nicole thing made me start to wonder if I just see things before others do. I'll refrain from another silicone and size joke in the interests of good taste.
No, I am not psychic or delusional - they're the same thing.
Nope.
I just got up this morning and read this story from Canadian Press, filed by Dene Moore.
Ms. Moore has found some obscure guy in some other part of the universe to tell her what - wait for it - you read here from a guy who works across the street from her office.
"But such a move seems odd because it's not the first time rockets have been fired over the East Coast oilfields, says Marco Caceres, a senior space analyst for The Teal Group, a U.S. aerospace and defence consulting firm."
Teal Group is a market intelligence firm - meaning they provide analysis to clients of a variety of issues in several aspects, like political, military, financial and social.
For the record, "market" intelligence is like any other form of intelligence. It requires gathering and then analyzing. In a simple sense what you have been getting in these pages is local intelligence analysis although not as detailed as my clients get.
See, cause that's the funny thing - one of the areas in which I practice is intelligence (information) and analysis. And, given my academic and military background, I do defence work.
So I'll be wandering across the street today to make sure that Dene is reading my blog.
She might actually get more information closer to home.
But you know, you read it here first.
12 April 2005
You saw the silicone here first
For those faithful readers of these scribbles, rest assured that you continue to read stuff here first.
Like the story that Anna Nicole was avoiding us because of her fear she might get shot while protesting the seal hunt.
News outlets in this province found the story over the past 24 hours.
Damien Penny, whose blog is otherwise timely, likewise only found it on Saturday past.
My version of the story ran here on April 7.
Robert Bond Papers - just a bit ahead of the curve.
Like the story that Anna Nicole was avoiding us because of her fear she might get shot while protesting the seal hunt.
News outlets in this province found the story over the past 24 hours.
Damien Penny, whose blog is otherwise timely, likewise only found it on Saturday past.
My version of the story ran here on April 7.
Robert Bond Papers - just a bit ahead of the curve.
It's fun until someone loses an eye
After saying he didn't like threats yesterday, in a completely different context, turns out that someone did threaten Danny Williams on Monday evening.
The Premier claims a group of four men an approached him as he tried to get into his car. One of them said words to the effect of "we'll get you".
Police are investigating and there may be charges.
Ok. Yesterday's threat was of disrupting the House of Assembly and threats against the Premier's political future, either implicit or explicit.
But like I said, threats have no place in politics.
Period.
Many years ago, there were threats uttered against another Premier. Some were the kind that gave you a cold sweat. Others were the kind of bluster we see all too often in politics.
One gizmo called into Nite Line back then and talked about how someone needed to push the then-Premier into a van and break his legs out somewhere in the woods. As I recall, the host - sometimes still on the air, unfortunately, - was egging callers on and said absolutely nothing - not a word - to denounce that kind of talk.
Like I said, threats have no place in civilized society.
Same goes for the morons who encourage them one way or another.
The Premier claims a group of four men an approached him as he tried to get into his car. One of them said words to the effect of "we'll get you".
Police are investigating and there may be charges.
Ok. Yesterday's threat was of disrupting the House of Assembly and threats against the Premier's political future, either implicit or explicit.
But like I said, threats have no place in politics.
Period.
Many years ago, there were threats uttered against another Premier. Some were the kind that gave you a cold sweat. Others were the kind of bluster we see all too often in politics.
One gizmo called into Nite Line back then and talked about how someone needed to push the then-Premier into a van and break his legs out somewhere in the woods. As I recall, the host - sometimes still on the air, unfortunately, - was egging callers on and said absolutely nothing - not a word - to denounce that kind of talk.
Like I said, threats have no place in civilized society.
Same goes for the morons who encourage them one way or another.
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