And it only took four days

"It's good to have an opposition, but it's important that that opposition be a constructive opposition, it not be a name-calling, mudslinging, personal-attacking type of opposition," Williams said in an interview.

Premier Danny Williams, quoted in a Canadian Press story on the provincial election, September 16, 2007

"Gerry Reid is a capable guy in his own way, but he's got an attitude, and he can't get over it. And everybody in the province is seeing it," Williams said during a rally in Twillingate. "When they look at him, they see him on television, they see the scowl on his face."

Premier Danny Williams, quoted in a Telegram story on the provincial election, September 20, 2007

Slamming a guy for the face God gave him. There's an original Conservative personal attack.

While we're at it, how nice it would be to have a government administration that didn't resort to a name-calling, mudslinging, personal attacking type of government.

Update almost instantly:

The highly productive I.P Freely has reposted one of his little videos from last January when it seems the Premier had dropped a derogatory comment or two about Gerry Reid's face during a spate of by-elections. The vid was relatively popular, having garnered almost 2,000 views.

Two wrongs don't make a right, I.P, but this puts things in another perspective.

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Campaign Notes: Using the technology

Step 1. Google any of the following words:

"danny williams"

"pc party"

"newfoundland"

Step 2: Check the sponsored links, usually on the right hand side.

Hint: Try "pc party" first and see if your search turns up the same result as the one we just did here at Bond.

Step 3: lol or roflyao

Update - Step 4; Google "bob ridgley". You won't find any website for the candidate. The first link that turns up is interesting.

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A non-story

Someone picked up on the fact that some campaign signs - in this case for Tory Beth Marshall - don't carry any reference to the "Danny Williams Team."

There are plenty of re-cycled signs around and Marshall appears to have been frugal with her campaign expenses.

Let's hope Bond Papers doesn't get as many comments on Marshall as CBC radio did after her interview yesterday. The server couldn't handle the volume of criticism aimed at the former auditor general

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Two views of democracy

From today's Telegram a rather bizarrely written editorial trying to make an issue of a candidate for one party who voted in the open nomination process of another.

Bizarre because apart from the smear of referring to political cross-dressing, the editorial gets the facts wrong:

But take this curious situation: Simon Lono, a Liberal candidate in St. John's North, actually attended a Tory nomination meeting in St. John's East and voted for a candidate there, even though he wasn't eligible to vote in the district at all.

This comment makes it sound like Lono did something improper or illegal.

He didn't.

The shifting of boundaries created problems across the province, but especially in St. John's where district line shifted by one street or another. In this case, the Progressive Conservative candidates themselves blanketed areas of the old St. John's East boundary which included Lono's house. Turns out the district association decided to use the new boundaries, even though they weren't legally in effect.

This editorial is something one might expect from a locally owned newspaper with a political agenda, one that took to printing tripe to fill up its page three in the weeks leading up to the election. It's unusual for the Telegram; conspicuously different from the norm.

Conspicuous too, given that in January 2007, the Telly's sister daily endorsed open nominations as a means by which all citizens can become involved in the political process at the grass roots. progressive Conservative candidates blanketed the airwaves of commercial radio with appeals for voters - any and all voters irrespective of party - to come and vote in the PC nomination process.

Were someone to ask, one would likely find that men and women from across the province have voted for candidates of different parties at various times and have participated in nomination processes for parties other than the one they usually support.

There's nothing sinister about it, nor is there any implication of some form of political gender confusion, whatever that is.

No one seems to be confused here, except the editors at the Telegram. The thing that has confused them most are the pesky things that normally confound their independently minded competitors across town: facts.

The Western Star (Corner Brook)
Opinion, Saturday, January 20, 2007, p. 6

Byelection promises to be interesting

Next month's by election in Port au Port has drawn a slew of candidates lining up for the PC party nomination. The byelection became necessary with the resignation of PC Jim Hodder, who after serving 21 years in the House of Assembly, decided to leave for health reasons.

It's good to see that seven citizens have come forward to offer themselves because it shows there is real interest in the seat and it will be interesting to see who gets the nod when voting takes place Monday.

The Progressive Conservative party has opened nomination voting to the general public and they're to be commended for doing so. A person shouldn't have to be a card-carrying member of the party to help make the decision on who their candidate will be.

Often voters are undecided in an election and tend to vote for the man or the woman rather than along party lines. This open system gives any person the opportunity to be involved at the grassroots level of politics. There are good candidates running for the PC nomination and whoever takes it will likely have a fight on his or her hands since the district was known to be a Liberal one in the past.

That changed in the last election when Hodder took it from incumbent Gerald Smith and it remains to be seen what message voters want to send this time around.

With a general election coming in the fall, this byelection promises to be more interesting than most.

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You whistle. Who barks?

"We can't be a dying race."

Premier Danny Williams

Dog whistle politics is the use of code words that carry specific meanings for specific segments of an audience. The majority may miss them, but for certain segments they have a different meaning than the one most people might assume.

The term originated, according to some accounts, in Australian politics in the 1990s and the ideas of Howard strategist Lynton Crosby. It's based on a theory of voter motivation that is far from controversial in and of itself. As Crosby put it:

"People don't generally vote simply on the basis of issues," he told a conference in Canberra last May [2004]. "They vote as much on the values and motivation of political parties in taking a particular position on an issue... It is the values you communicate, and the motivation you have, that influences the way people vote."

It's hard to escape the idea that there is something of a dog whistle in Danny Williams use of the word race, especially when you see the sort of posturing on the issue that turned up after the remarks. It's code in the local nationalist fringe, just as it would be in Quebec.

The themes in the last throne speech and the campaign song all have a flavour and tone which would appeal across several audience segments. There's the talk of pride of place which most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians feel and its a core value pretty well everyone has.

The bootie call policy itself is a pretty straightforward example of the sort of retail politics that took Stephen Harper to 24 Sussex last year. It also makes it appear to some people that the premier and his crew are trying to do something to stem the tide of outmigration by paying people to stay and have children.

But if you wanted to look at another layer, consider that idea of Newfoundlanders as being a distinct race of people is a notion most common among those who never quite got over their loss in the 1948 referendum. Williams has raised the traditional political theatrical device of the external enemy to a fine art, playing to the insecure and largely xenophobic crowd who thrive on the myths of carpetbaggers and Canadians who pillage the benighted people of God's other Eden. To those people, defending a Newfoundland race beset by a declining birthrate and the loss of their culture to the evils of the mainland is as instinctive as breathing.

But for most of "race' is such an odd word, that it's sudden appearance in public remarks by the Premier would elicit one of two responses. Either people would ask what he meant or, as in this case, the embedded atmosphere of the media on the bus might well lead people to rationalize the word as an unimportant anomaly.

Problem is that things are quite that easy.

Political messaging sometimes comes on layers, with different aspects aimed at different segments of the audience. It takes a sophisticated organization to research and detect how messages are playing in smaller segments of the population and then adjust messages according.

Williams has done it before. The one instance in which such a detailed analysis was conducted occurred in 2004 with polling on the flag controversy. The poll results were obtained by the Telegram under Access to Information laws. Shortly afterward, the Premier's office stopped purchasing polling other than CRA through any publicly accessible means. That doesn't mean the sophisticated polling stopped.

Political messaging in a skilled organization isn't developed on the basis of the simplified and almost simplistic analysis offered in the Corporate Research Associate's quarterly omnibus political questions. Skilled operators would know what messages resonate with specific audiences.

The Premier's race comment might just be a slip of the tongue. But don't bet on it.

Danny Williams is a savvy politician whose has built his success on surrounding himself with a team of capable, sophisticated marketers. He doesn't often drop words out there carelessly, even if occasionally he gets suckered into musing on taking away free speech. those are core to his political agenda.

In this instance, "race" is the word Danny Williams chose without prompting.

It's a word that was on his mind.

There's a reason why the word came up.

Maybe he was whistling a tune intended, in part, for some of his most hard core supporters.

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Beth Marshall: Donations by MHAs "are appropriate"

In an interview with the St. John's Morning Show, former Auditor General Beth Marshall blew away whatever credibility she had as a fearless campaigner for accountability of public spending.

Marshall said she had no problem with members of the legislature handing out donations from constituency funds in manner essentially in violation of the system of accountability she used to espouse. In many cases, what the legislature called donations went to purposes for which there were already established government programs.

Among her most amazing comments:

"The Auditor General [John Noseworthy] has no basis to base his opinion on that those expenditures were inappropriate."

The AG based his views on the report by Chief Justice Green and his scathing indictment of the practice of donations. When pressed by Jeff Gilhooley on whether or not the donations were inappropriate, given that they came from an allowance that was never intended to include donations, Marshall was unequivocal: "They are appropriate."

Marshall defended her view on the basis that "discretionary funds" exist throughout government. That's an interesting argument for Marshall to make. As she should know, Green documents the original Morgan Commission recommendation in 1989 on allowances and the manner in which discretionary funds were restricted until that specific type of fund was eliminated by Marshall and her colleagues on the House management committee in 2004.

Had donations in fact been treated like discretionary funds, then members would have been limited to a maximum of $4800 per year. But Marshall knows that donations were not treated like discretionary funds. In the period after Marshall and her colleagues eliminated discretionary funds - and as the AG documented - gifting by Marshall and her colleagues increased compared to previous years. Marshall's colleague the deputy Premier handed out one gift of $5,000 in a single go in 2007.

In another part of the interview, Marshall said that when she was elected, she was provided with a set of rules to be followed. That's blatantly contrary to the line taken by most members that there were in fact no rules and hence abuses and oversights occurred.

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An abundance of optimism

There's a great story in the Wednesday Telegram assessing the possible performance of the Hebron royalty arrangement compared to the generic regime.

Sometimes, though, one gets an uneasy feeling when the same people who scream "no more give-aways" step forward to say "trust me", but then don't release any details of the deal.

And it's not like the major deal that the "no more give-aways" crowd use as a goblin to frighten people wasn't greeted with an abundance of enthusiasm when it was announced in May 1969. [Aside: That's right, Bill Rowe. May 1969. When you were in cabinet.]

From the Telegram, May 30, 1969 in a story by John Carter:

Fears that Newfoundland came out on the short end of the stick in the agreement to develop Churchill Falls appear to be unfounded.

In fact, Newfoundland fares quite well, although it may appear otherwise on the surface.

...

The $950 million project in Labrador has been a long time coming. However, it probably would have come earlier had it not been for Premier J.R. Smallwood's uncontrolled outbursts of provincialism...

There are references to name calling, of Smallwood referring to keeping the project from the "clutches of Quebec" and things that sound eerily familiar.

Sadly, there is no electronic copy of the text, just these two scans.

Maybe the Telly will add them to their website.

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Stephenville 2: Not on my watch

From the Premier's remarks in Goose Bay on Tuesday:

And I want people here to know that I am not prepared to leave Labradorians excluded on my watch. Labrador's day has arrived. This is Labrador's time to shine, to flourish and to reap the benefits of growth as our province moves forward, united, toward self-reliance.

It's odd to use this sort of phrase a second time, at least under the circumstances.

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Danny makes Bourque!

Well, indirectly.

But the original is here.

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Hiring baby ranchers

From Washington Profile, an interview with Nicholas Eberstadt on the demographic problems facing Russia. Read the whole interview to understand the Russian experience in a wider context.

Eberstadt is a political economy specialist at the American Enterprise Institute. It's a pretty stark appraisal from a purely economic perspective, but the ideas are worth considering.

But in light of the Progressive Conservative's procreation policy, take a look at this [emphasis added]:

Washington Profile: Russia is not the only country to attempt to increase birth rates through government policy and incentives. How effective have these kinds of policies been in other countries, for example, in western Europe?

Eberstadt: Birth incentive plans are almost always ineffective in the long run. The typical history of birth incentive plans in western Europe and elsewhere has been to elicit a small blip in birth rates followed by a bigger slump. The reason for the blip is that some parents “on the fence” about the timing of a second or a third child take advantage of the introduction of these incentives. And the subsequent slump takes place because the bonuses alter parents' timing of desired births, not desired birth totals. If one were to have a serious pronatalist economic plan, you’d be getting into some very big money. You would have to have vastly larger outlays than are currently accorded to social security, healthcare or any other existing programs. Basically, you’d have to be prepared to be hiring women to work as baby ranchers—and in a modern economy, given the opportunity cost of women’s labor, a program like that would be staggeringly expensive. That, I think, explains the limited success of pronatalist efforts in the western historical record. By the way, it also turns out to be very difficult to talk up the birth rate: the bully pulpit and the government usually can’t convince people to have extra children out of patriotism or civic duty.

Washington Profile: Russia has become a country with significant immigration flows. How is this likely to impact on its demographic situation?

Russia has the same problem that other European countries have, with the prospect of population decline, and the question of changing ethnic composition. Many of the prospective migrants to Russia are not of Russian ethnicity, and as you know, the government has increasingly indicated a nationalist, or a nativist, objection to immigration to the Russian Federation. There still are a number of millions of Russians in the near abroad, but the flow of Russian ethnic migration to the Russian Federation has declined almost to a trickle over the past decade. Barring some sort of awful political upheaval, I don’t know how realistic it would be to think that these ethnic Russians in the near abroad might want to pack up and head back to the Russian Federation. So Russia is facing the same kind of issues as the rest of Europe. Throughout Europe, the key question in this regard is: can the newcomers be turned into loyal and productive citizens? Some places have a better track record of this than others.

A discussion paper from the Max Plank Institute for the Study of Democratic Policy examines fertility policies in western European countries. Note that the paper discusses a range of policies aimed at supporting people raising children, not merely the performance bonus system for producing children.

While the Progressive Conservative policy announced on Tuesday includes components aimed at supporting parents during child-rearing, it remains to be seen if these measures will be effective. A significant program would involve reform of the federal government's parental leave program to provide larger benefits over a longer period of time versus the current scheme of providing 55% of income for a year. At the time when costs rise, the scheme actually reduces family net income.

There is also a question as to whether or not the longer-term policies are actually the impetus for the proposed program. The Premier's comment on a "dying race" suggest something closer to the sort of reactionary nationalist policies that have emerged in some states, such as Russia. "Race" in this case, is most definitely not synonymous with "province" as some may naively be tempted to argue. The provincial government's throne speech from the past spring, as well as the Progressive Conservative campaign contain clear expressions of nationalist sentiment if not outright ideology.

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Leader's Tour for Wednesday: Dueling banjos

Danny Williams will be in Liberal leader Gerry Reid's district, the Isles of Notre Dame. That's an offensive play on the heels of the trip to Labrador.

Gerry Reid will be in Isles of Notre Dame on a defensive mission, after visiting two districts in the metro St. John's area on an offensive play.

Do the New Democrats have a website for the election?

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Election 2007: Day Two Notes

1. Quote of the Day: "We can't be a dying race." Premier Danny Williams on his campaign promise to offer cash to people having babies or adopting children.

What "race" is he talking about?

Take a look at the Conception Day idea the Premier mentioned in his newser. Here's the audio clip of the Premier. [ram file] Here's a story from the Toronto Star from September 12 on the idea: it goes way beyond just the need to boost a population in a region, province or country. The whole idea is to produce people of a certain ethnic origin, as opposed to say dealing with the other issues in the society that are affecting reproduction to say opening up immigration.

The low birth rate in this province is not the result of any decrease in sexual activity. So what is behind the idea of a cash bonus for upping the birth rate?

2. Ethical Story of the Day: An admission by retiring Progressive Conservative MHA, Speaker Harvey Hodder, that members of the legislature - Hodder included - actually refrained from claiming legitimate expenses so they could maximize the amount of cash available to hand out in gifts. The Auditor General decried the money - termed "donations" - as inappropriate expenditures. Chief Justice Derek Green did likewise.

Hodder made the remarks on CBC Radio's St. John's Morning Show but the audio isn't available on line. There are related stories on the Auditor General's report in The Telegram but they also aren't available on line.

If you want to see a genuine example of the bizarre logic of politicians, consider a letter from Maura Hanrahan to local media on the subject. Rather than have a properly funded, fair and equitable program, they felt it better that they have cash to hand around entirely at their own discretion.

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Danny's bootie call

Here's the CBC story on the Tories $1000 bonus for having babies in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Quote of the day, from the ram audio file: "We can't be a dying race."

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It's come to this

Known for years as the most sexually active people in Canada and, not surprisingly, known for having large families, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians now have one of the lowest fertility rates in the country.

No problem.

The provincial Progressive Conservatives are now proposing a one-time payment of $1,000 for every new child born in the province or adopted in the province. it's one way to deal with population decline and, as Danny Williams said in his newser today, the bonus is one way Quebec has slowed its population decline.

Retail politics hits the bedroom.

or spectators at the submarine races off Signal Hill.

Danny's reference to the "race" dying out is likely to raise more than a few hairs on the back of a few necks. Well it should. If nothing else, the terms are very much in keeping with the language of the Quebec nationalists and separatists he likes to ape in his own remarks.

Aping is one thing, but to put the population issue in a racial context is a bit much. A thriving economy will attract new immigrants from many cultures and backgrounds. Talking about the race not being allowed to die out sends an uncomfortable message from a government looking to encourage immigration.

Then again, there's another similarity, this time between Roger Grimes and Danny Williams.

With Roger, the whole place was supposedly about either fishing or f***ing. Danny Williams laced into Grimes for the comments which were made at a speech in New York.

Well, with Danny, there's a lot less fishing but there will be more f***ing.

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Edible undies

At a regular council meeting, St. John's Mayor Andy Wells made a joke about charging travel expenses to his city account, saying he would only charge underwear if they were edible and therefore fell under the per diem for meals.

Guess Wells got the idea from the huge number of frustrated city residents who've told the usually caustic mayor over the years to "Eat my shorts!"

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Dueling youtubes

Steve Kent, the Liberal cum Tory mayor of Mount Pearl, has a video on youtube.

He gets big marks for using the technology: Facebook group. youtube video.

Blog. Well, suck some points off for the blog. It isn't a blog, just a glorified news release page that doesn't contain anything resembling "news".

This isn't a way to connect with Steve Kent personally and get some insight into his views. It's just packaged pap using flowery, "motherhood and bakeapple jam" kinda truisms.

Very "B" school marketing.

Not very Web 2.0.

Still for the website and the rest of the package, Kent is definitely ahead of the online candidate pack.

Anyway here's Kent's video:


I.P. Freely had this little one out first, though. It's vintage Web 2.0 political comms, and that's what makes campaigns fun. At posting, the Kent campaign vid had about 125 views. Freely's had 550.

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Leader's Tour Logic

Leader's Tour has become a staple of modern politics.

Everybody has one and where the leader goes can be an indication of strength or weakness, depending on perception.

Gerry Reid will be heading to Port de Grave and Bellevue, traditionally strong Liberal seats. There should be good visuals for the leader and Reid's trip on the second day of the formal campaign could be a clue the Grits want to shore up those strong seats before sallying elsewhere. There's a defensive element to the opening of the Liberal campaign.

Danny Williams will be unveiling the Progressive Conservative election platform at an event in Corner Brook after doing the customary greeting workers at the Kruger mill gate. Then Williams is off to Labrador.

Ordinarily that would be a sign the seats held by John Hickey and Jim Baker are solid. Maybe they are, but already there is word that the energy plan is perceived as snubbing Labrador. Again, it looks like a defensive play at the start.

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Curious logic

From the Gulf News:

What ends up happening is the only opposition for government is the province’s media. But then government has a way of stifling media as it has done with ‘The Independent’ newspaper in St. John’s. Danny has cut off his office from any access by most of that newspaper’s reporters.

It's a bit behind the times.  Count the provincial government advertising in the front section of the thin newspaper. Ryan's back in Danny's good books after a brief time in the doghouse for daring to write about the Williams Family Foundation. After some whining on Ryan's part, Danny gave in and started talking to him again.

But wait a second. 

Come to think of it, the logic isn't curious after all.

Election 2007: Day One Notes

1. Story of the Day: Incumbents seeking re-election who were mentioned in the Auditor General's report on Friday but who were not returning media phone calls. You can run but you can't hide.

2. Media Coverage story of the Day: Nobody carried the Tory campaign launch rally live. Timed to coincide with the supper hour news shows, as in 1999 and 2003, the Big Speech and the Big rally garnered squat. Not a single broadcaster gave the Premier free air time - live - to kick off his campaign.

3. Image of the Day: A toss-up. on the one hand there is footage of the bussed-in crowd (a small one at that) welcoming Liberal leader Gerry Reid as he climbed off a fishing boat to unveil the Liberal policy platform. If Simon (Lono) had been there, the biblical allusion to launching into the deep on faith couldn't have been more complete.

Your humble e-scribbler will swear on a stack of Bibles he had nothing to do with the whole thing; Biblical imagery is dangerous since today's fishing for votes can end up with the leader nailed to a tree. If that wasn't bad enough, only a relatively small number in the province might even pick up the message.

Tied with that is the Tory campaign with its references to the "Danny Williams team" while the bus and the website have nothing but pictures (updated) of the Big Giant Head from 2003's Tory ego campaign.

The Tories might win out, though, if we add the picture of Danny Williams flying to Deer Lake on a leased Cessna Citation executive jet hot on the heels of the House of Assembly extravagance report from the Auditor General. The CBC video of the Premier deplaning all by himself (not even a body man or other staffers) didn't quite match up with the "Team Danny" thing either.

Odd for a People's Campaign to have a decidedly capitalist mode of transportation.

4. Crushed Ego: The Tory campaign song dumped the references to what many took to be local bloggers heard in the version unveiled to the St. John's Board of Trade. The thing was running long, anyway. It still has plenty of stuff in it to fuel a dozen posts, like bizarre references to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians facing the future with "poisoned tongues" and an attitude.

5. Boosted Ego: remember we mentioned the phrase "The future is ours". Turns out it is the Tory campaign slogan.

Election prediction

Not updated yet, but expect an provincial election prediction section at - surprisingly - electionprediction.org.

There's also a predictor at the University of British Columbia.

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