If you could get him for what he knew…

Some politicians just don’t know when to stop.

On Tuesday, new Democratic Party member of parliament Jack Harris (St. John’s East) did an interview with CBC’s St. John’s morning radio show.  The subject of the interview was news yesterday that an offshore supply vessel working for Suncor had reduced its on-call fast rescue craft crewing from two crews to one. 

That met Transport Canada’s regulations, a point Harris acknowledged during the interview very early on by referring to…well… “Transport Canada regulations”.  Harris expressed some concern – others have too – have any reduction in available rescue crews in light of last year’s offshore helicopter crash.

Fair enough.  It’s a good point and, later on Tuesday, the company restored the two-crew standard.*

Had Jack stopped there he might have been okay.  As it is, the program host tossed Jack a question about the potential role in all this for the offshore regulatory board.  Jack offered the view that, as some people have been suggesting to the ongoing offshore helicopter inquiry, this might be a good occasion to review the possible need for a separate regulatory agency that just looks after offshore safety.

Minor problem.

The offshore regulatory board doesn’t do safety regulations.

Jack obviously knows this, as he demonstrated earlier in the interview. This is one of those decisions that remain the exclusive jurisdiction of the Government of Canada under the 1985 Atlantic Accord.

Therefore – try and follow the logic – if the offshore regulatory board doesn’t do offshore safety regulations, then some other entirely separate organization must do it.

Already.

So what is the frackin’ point of studying the need for a separate regulatory board  for safety when there is one already called Transport Canada?

There isn’t any. 

Obviously.

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*  Clarification:  Suncor will only have two crews on standby when there are two rigs.  They will add the second standby crew when the Henry Goodrich is back in the fall to do additional drill work.

As the online CBC story puts it:

John Downton, communications manager for Suncor's east coast operations, said a second dedicated crew will return to the Burin Sea this fall, when the Henry Goodrich returns to work at Terra Nova.

Downton said Suncor, which merged last year with Petro-Canada and is the operating partner of the Terra Nova consortium, has been following regulations established under Canadian law, which require one fast-rescue craft per offshore installation.

"We meet regulatory requirements," Downton told CBC News. "We don't set the regulations — we follow them."

Labour Force Comparison – a first look

last week’s release of the latest labour force numbers from Statistics Canada prompted your humble e-scribbler to go back and try a comparison of the overall provincial labour force in comparison to national averages.

Right off the bat, let everyone understand this is nothing more than a quick comparison based on readily available information. It should serve as the jumping off point for future discussion and if nothing else, it should help everyone get way beyond the rather simplistic comparisons of month-to-month numbers. Sometimes those things are meaningful but as the past couple of months have shown, sometimes, the statistics are just off.

The provincial numbers comes from a document included with the last provincial budget.  It’s called The Economy and gives an overview of the year just ended.  The national numbers come from the latest labour force statistics. Both sources use the same job classification system.  The listing below bundles them together so that the comparisons match up.

The figures are the percentage of the total number of jobs in each category.  For example, 1.7% of jobs in Canada are classified as being agricultural.  The corresponding percentage for Newfoundland and Labrador is 0.4%

To draw attention to aspects of the comparison, please note that categories where the provincial percentage lags behind the national significantly are marked with the digits underlined.  Where the provincial is significantly above the national average, the figures are in red. 

Statisticians may wonder what the definition of “significant” is.  Well, it comes down to the relative difference in the two numbers as they appear on the face of it. 

Category	National	Newfoundland and Labrador
Goods-producing	22%	21%
Agriculture	1.7	0.4
Natural Res	2.0	6.7
Utilities	<1	2.1
Construction	7.0	7.3
Manufacturing	10.2	5.5
Services-producing	78	79
Trade	15.7	16.2
Trans/warehouse	4.7	5.4
Fin, ins, RE,Bus	10.5	6.7
Prof./sci./tech.	7.4	3.6
Education	7.2	8.1
Health/soc asst	11.9	16.1
Accn	6.0	6.1
Public Admin	5.5	7.9
Other	4.3	4.8

Right off the bat, note that the relative breakdown into goods-producing and service- producing is virtually the same for both the provincial and national economies.

Let’s look at the goods sector. Overall, the provincial economy in this sector is very heavily reliant on resource extraction. The natural resources grouping (which includes fishing, trapping, mining and oil extraction) accounts for three times as large a percentage of jobs within the province as the same grouping.  Manufacturing, on the other hand, accounts for only half as much.  That 5.5% manufacturing for the province includes 2.2% for fish processing.

In the services sector, there are some equally interesting comparisons.  Finance, insurance, real estate and business services account for 6.7% of the jobs in this province while the same grouping accounts for 105% of jobs nationally.  The professional, scientific and technical services sector accounts for 3.6% of local jobs versus 7.4% nationally.

Take a look, though, at two service sectors which are publicly funded. About 16% of local jobs are in the health sector compared to 11.9% nationally;  that’s 33% above the national number.  Public administration is 43%, accounting for 7.9% of provincial jobs compared to 5.5% nationally.

Fully a quarter of the jobs in the province are public sector jobs compared to 17.4% of jobs across the country.  Given that some of the other categories likely also contain public sector employees, it wouldn’t take too much to estimate reasonably that the public sector accounts for about one third of all workers in the province.

Incidentally, just to put actual numbers on this, the health and social assistance sector accounted for 34,600 jobs in 2009 according to the provincial government figures.  That’s out of a total of 214,900 jobs.  It is the single largest category in the service sector, with retail trade coming in at 29,600 for second place  There were 17,300 in educational services and 16,900 people working in public administration.

The largest job category in goods-producing was construction at 15,700. The second largest was manufacturing with 11,900.  Of that manufacturing number, 4,700 were involved in fish processing.

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Pre-publication post-script update:  This posts was written the night before it appeared. labradore has a simple set of numbers using more recent data for the size of the public sector in the province. His estimates are for the provincial public sector alone;  the figures above are for federal, provincial and municipal.

Still, according to labradore, the provincial government public sector accounted for 25% of the current labour force in the first half of 2010.

General and master corporal face charges over relationship

 

From the Department of National Defence:

Charges Laid Following Brigadier-General Ménard Investigation

CFNIS NR – 2010-11 - July 12, 2010

OTTAWA – The Canadian Forces National Investigation Service (CFNIS), which is the investigative arm of the Canadian Forces Military Police, has concluded its investigation relating to allegations of inappropriate conduct and has charged Brigadier-General Daniel Ménard and Master-Corporal Bianka Langlois. The investigation was initiated in May 2010 and is related to the Canadian Forces Personal Relationships and Fraternization directives [DAOD 5019-1].

Brig.-Gen. Ménard was charged with:

• two counts of conduct to the prejudice of good order and discipline contrary to section 129 of the National Defence Act (NDA), related to alleged inappropriate conduct as outlined in the Canadian Forces Personal Relationships and Fraternization directives;

• one count of obstructing justice contrary to section 130 of the NDA, pursuant to section 139(2) of the Criminal Code of Canada; and

• one count of conduct to the prejudice of good order and discipline contrary to section 129 of the NDA, laid in the alternative to the obstructing justice charge.

Master-Corporal Langlois was charged with:

• one count of conduct to the prejudice of good order and discipline contrary to section 129 of the National Defence Act, related to alleged inappropriate conduct as outlined in the Canadian Forces Personal Relationships and Fraternization directives.

The charges were laid following allegations made in May 2010 while Brig.-Gen. Ménard was the Task Force Commander in Afghanistan.

The CFNIS is an independent Military Police unit with a mandate to investigate serious and sensitive matters in relation to Department of National Defence (DND) property, DND employees, and CF personnel serving in Canada and abroad.

- 30 -

Section 129 of the National Defence Act (RSC 1985, c. N-5) provides that:

Conduct to the Prejudice of Good Order and Discipline

Prejudicing good order or discipline

129. (1) Any act, conduct, disorder or neglect to the prejudice of good order and discipline is an offence and every person convicted thereof is liable to dismissal with disgrace from Her Majesty’s service or to less punishment.

Offence and contraventions prejudicial to good order and discipline

(2) An act or omission constituting an offence under section 72 or a contravention by any person of

(a) any of the provisions of this Act,

(b) any regulations, orders or instructions published for the general information and guidance of the Canadian Forces or any part thereof, or

(c) any general, garrison, unit, station, standing, local or other orders,

is an act, conduct, disorder or neglect to the prejudice of good order and discipline.

Attempts to commit offences

(3) An attempt to commit any of the offences prescribed in sections 73 to 128 is an act, conduct, disorder or neglect to the prejudice of good order and discipline.

Saving provision

(4) Nothing in subsection (2) or (3) affects the generality of subsection (1).

Not intended to cover offences elsewhere provided for

(5) No person may be charged under this section with any offence for which special provision is made in sections 73 to 128 but the conviction of a person so charged is not invalid by reason only of the charge being in contravention of this subsection unless it appears that an injustice has been done to the person charged by reason of the contravention.

Officer’s responsibility not affected

(6) The responsibility of any officer for the contravention of subsection (5) is not affected by the validity of any conviction on the charge in contravention of that subsection.

Section 130 of the National Defence Act allows for charges to be laid against military personnel for offences under the Criminal Code of Canada.

When will she get the flick?

A political science professor at Memorial University developed a computer program to help predict when a cabinet minister will get fired.*

CBC Radio’s Central Morning Show interviewed Matthew Kerby for an broadcast on July 9.

Kerby’s indicators include:

• age
• sex
• educational level
• profession
• potential leadership challenger
• strength of government majority

-srbp-

* added “minister”.

The ferry tale of New Ferrole

Not exactly destined to be a Christmas classic but a tale that is nonetheless as misshapen as the dental work of any Pogue’s front man.

The Telegram reported on Saturday that the provincial government’s ferry building program is behind schedule with more delays expected. One new ship is expected later this year with another to follow next year.  More will come along after that.

Transportation minister Tom Hedderson didn’t have any explanations to offer for the delay:

"It's a catch-up game, and we understand that," Hedderson said in an interview.

"But the significant dollars that we've put in are making significant differences. We plan - and not always can we stick to the timeline - but we have made the commitment, and the money. It is going as fast as (it) can, given the circumstances."

He never said what the circumstances were just that they were there. Hedderson was, however, fulsome in his self-praise:

"Obviously, very simply, we've taken the bull by the horns," Hedderson said.

"It's not an easy task, especially when the shipbuilding industry had not been developed over the years as well."

These sorts of delays are now par for the course in the Williams administration.  capital works projects and legislation routinely take years from the date they are announced. Cost over-runs mount at the same time for many of the capital projects.

The Telegram doesn’t really give a full accounting of the delays in the ferry work.  Nonetheless, it is worthwhile to take a look at just exactly how long this construction work has been in the works.  After all, Hedderson told the Telegram the vessel replacements might not be finished for another decade.

September 30, 2005: transportation and works minister Tom Rideout said that government was thoroughly examining options for building vessels in this province. Minister Rideout said, “My department is analyzing opportunities to build vessels in this province in terms of net economic benefits to the province, including job creation and economic development.”

February 16, 2007:   Transportation and works minister John Hickey,  said "Our plan to build these two new ferries is the first stage of our Vessel Replacement Strategy," At the time, Government anticipates the total cost of the two ferries will be approximately $25 million 

November 15, 2007:  The provincial government announced that Clarenville and Marystown Shipyards were to bid on ferry construction. Transportation and works minister Diane Whelan said that Clarenville Drydock Limited and Peter Kiewit and Sons of Marystown had been invited to submit bids on construction of two new provincial ferry vessels. 

June 10, 2008:  The provincial government awarded a $50.5 million contract to for the ferries.  Peter Kiewit got the contract with a guarantee that 25% of the sub-contract work would go to Clarenville.  The release refers to design work for a possible fourth ferry of the same size in addition to the three contemplated.

The Southern Gazette reported that work on the ferries was expected to begin immediately, with the first ferry due to be delivered by the end of next year (2009) and the second in the spring of 2010, notwithstanding any unforeseen delays.

December 17, 2008: Transportation and works minister Trevor Taylor told the House of Assembly:

Mr. Speaker, the member is correct, we did make an announcement back earlier this year on construction of two new ferries in – basically led in Marystown but part in Clarenville.

Mr. Speaker, discussions with Peter Kiewit and Sons have been proceeding. As the member may know, the construction of these two ferries is basically a design-build approach, where approximately 70 per cent of design has been done. The testing on the hull and what have you was done at the Centre for Ocean Dynamics, or the Centre for Marine Dynamics over at back of MUN.

Basically, where we are right now – actually, just earlier this morning there was a meeting between officials of the department and representatives from the Marystown Dockyard. Mr. Speaker, it is moving along. I hope that in the very near future we will be able to begin construction. There are some relatively minor, I would hope, matters around the design of the vessel and the performance of the vessel that Peter Kiewit and Sons have to commit to. When we sign off on the vessel, we want them to guarantee us that the ship is going to float and that the ship is going to perform and have the appropriate sea keeping as was required and that is what we are –

…

I can tell the member and the House that the propulsion systems for both ships have already been bought. They are here in a warehouse in St. John’s right now. As for cost overruns, Mr. Speaker, given the current state of the world economy and the declining demand for steel and cooper and everything else that you would be required to put into a ship, we would not expect any cost overruns. If anything, Mr. Speaker, our indication to Peter Kiewit & Sons is that we would probably see a decline in some of this stuff.

February 26, 2009: The Packet reported the Clarenville shipyard had pulled out of the ferry construction project for unexplained reasons.

June 10, 2010:  With two ferries delayed, the third not begun and fourth in the design stages, the provincial government announces calls for expressions of interest in designing six new ferries.  Note that, as part of the Summer of Love 2007 election campaign, the Williams administration made a large number of capital works announcements that didn’t happen for two to three years.

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HQ and NALCOR on same side in US transmission line play

Both Hydro-Quebec and NALCOR Energy support development of  a $2.0 billion power line into New York city.

Newfoundland and Labrador's state energy company, Nalcor, is also behind the project. The line would run from Canada under Lake Champlain, into the eastern U.S.

For Nalcor, the lines would allow it to export electricity to the U.S. from a proposed dam to be built at Lower Churchill Falls.

"Anything that increases competition and market access we see favourably," said Ariane Connor, a Hydro-Quebec spokesperson.

NALCOR signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding on the project earlier this year.

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Traffic Drivers, July 5 to July 9

1. And no fish swam
2. NB opts for second nuke over Lower Churchill
3. Economic recovery -  not exactly as illustrated, part deux
4. Offshore board announces two more  calls for bids 
5. New NS-NB intertie to cost more than $200 million
6. Ho hum
7. Another new era…
8. The harsh reality
9. Tentative deal at Vale in Ontario
10. Are you smarter than a cheese grater, now?

Not surprisingly the commentary on the provincial government’s foray into fisheries science was a clear favourite among readers.  A mention on the Fisheries Broadcast on Monday  - thanks John Furlong - certainly didn’t hurt to bring more attention to it. Leading the Broadcast is a pretty big deal.

Two related posts – one from 2008 (#6) and another on the oceans “strategy” consultation (#10) – also proved popular this week.

New Brunswick also proved popular with the Number Two post on the decision in NB this week to study a possible second reactor at Lepreau.  Ditto #5.

And then, there’s the post on economic issues in central Newfoundland (#3).  There’s an underpinning theme in this, ably summarised by a regular reader in a comment on another post:  “What drives "growth" in our province, presently? The GDP from Oil and govt spending, and the inflationary housing market. One of those factors is beyond our control, the other two are largely artificial.”

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Labour force trending

Friday’s labour force data from Statistics Canada got a fair bit of news time, largely for the reported drop in employment in Newfoundland and Labrador of 8,100.

It’s hot on the heels of an equally large jump in employment the month before.

Month to month fluctuations don’t necessarily mean very much of anything.  And in fact if you look at the last couple of months compared to say figures dating back to march 2007, you can easily see that the big rise and big fall in employment could just be an anomaly.

The current estimated number of employed people is around 218,000 which is roughly where the employed chunk of the labour force peaked a couple of times going back to early 2007.  It only went over that – peaking out at 226,000 or thereabouts for a few months in early 2008.

What’s more noticeable when you look at these long term figures is that while the number of employed people is up again, the total labour force is the highest it has been in the past three years.  Whether these people have been living here and have returned to the labour force or whether they’ve shifted here from somewhere else, there are more people available for work.

Rough appraisal:  The economy has struggled to regain lost ground during the recession.  At the same time, the available labour force has grown hence the unemployment rate remains high.

Take a look at a couple of other numbers in the Statistics Canada survey to see some other points of interest.

First, the estimated population – that is those 15 years of age and over  - remains pretty steady at a little over 430,000. 

Second, of those, only 59% participate in the labour force.  That’s the lowest rate in the country.

Third, the employment rate – that is, the percentage of employed people as a part of the labour force  - is one of the lowest in the country.  Other provinces beat that by a good 10 points.

Now if you look at the provincial government’s own figures for May (likely to soon disappear in favour of a more recent update), you’ll see that they use higher numbers in their estimates.  The overall trending is likely the same.

One important thing to notice from the provincial government’s assessment is where the job growth came in May.  Growth came in health and social services, accommodations and trade.  The drops came in manufacturing, information, culture and recreation and in business.

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Revised to correct typos and improve readability.

NL posts 8k job loss in June

The Newfoundland and Labrador economy shed 8,100 jobs in June, erasing gains posted in May. That’s according to figures release on Friday by Statistics Canada.

Overall, the Canadian economy gained 93,000 jobs in June.

Compared to June 2009, the province has gained 4,400 jobs.

According to Statistics Canada, the labour force dropped to 256,500 in June compared to 263,100 in May.

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NB opts for second nuke over Lower Churchill

The Government of New Brunswick today signed a letter of intent to study construction of a second reactor at Point Lepreau.

"The New Brunswick government recognizes the integral role the energy sector has in growing our economy," said Graham in a media release.

"Although this announcement is just a first step, a project of this magnitude would create 8,500 direct and indirect jobs for New Brunswickers in all regions of our province."

Newfoundland and Labrador ‘s government-owned energy company has been trying to interest New Brunswick in buying power from its Lower Churchill project, if the project is completed. 

The current price tag for the hydro development could be as much as $14 billion. In comments last month, Premier Danny Williams said that any decision on the project is up in the air indefinitely.

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New NS-NB intertie to cost $200 million

Nova Scotia and New Brunswick will need to build a new $200 million intertie within the next decade, according to the Chronicle Herald.

The new lines would take power from new generation outside Nova Scotia and could also help ship power from new wind generation in Nova Scotia to market in New Brunswick and elsewhere.

The herald mentions the Lower Churchill as one of the potential sources of new power outside Nova Scotia.  That project may cost as much as $14 billion according to recent estimates.  It current has no customers and there are no firm plans to develop it.

Newfoundland and Labrador premier Danny Williams said in June that the project is up in the air indefinitely.

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Are you smarter than a cheese grater, now?

Remember that fisheries research cash announcement that seemed to have been cobbled together within the past six weeks?

Well, there’s a bit more evidence of the whole thing was baked up in a few weeks.  The evidence comes from the release of a consultation document to support development of a coastal and oceans management strategy by the provincial governments.

Environment minister Charlene Johnson is in the thick of it, once again, with this quote from the news release:

“Our oceans play a very valuable role in our ecosystems and it is important that we employ an appropriate policy framework for their management,”…

Charlene has an interest in and jurisdiction over the ocean.

Interesting.

In late May – about six weeks ago – she sure didn’t.

That’s because, according to Johnson, “if the Leader of the Opposition was so concerned about the environment and offshore she should have asked me a question where jurisdiction does fall under my department and that is when the oil reaches the land, Mr. Speaker.”

In that same session, natural resources minister Calamity Kathy Dunderdale went so far as to put a specific delimitation on where the shore began: the “Minister of Environment and Conservation … has no responsibility beyond the high water mark.”

Dunderdale – who is also Danny Williams’ hand-picked choice as second in command on the good ship Williams – also had no trouble defining where the fisheries minister stood:  his “did not go any further than that either as far as the offshore was concerned.”

How truly odd, then, that the other minister involved in the oceans strategy consultation was none other than Clyde Jackman, minister of fisheries and aquaculture.

Now we’ve already had more than a few chortles  at Dunderdale’s expense over this whole issue of jurisdiction. Okay so maybe there were a few guffaws too. But for an administration  whose deputy premier only a few weeks ago was adamant that  ministers had absolutely no responsibility for what went on below the high water mark on the shore, this new document is a gigantic change of direction.

All in six weeks.

But that’s not the end of it.

This new strategy is supposedly about…well, let’s let Charlene tell us:

“Our goal is sustainability and ensuring we use our resources effectively…”

Laudable stuff, indeed.

The word “sustainable” occurs no fewer than 36 times in the consultation document itself, usually in conjunction with the word “manner”, as in things must be done in a “sustainable manner”.

The responsibility for this sustainable stuff rests with none other than Charlene Johnson and her intrepid little department:

The Department of Environment and Conservation is responsible for developing and implementing the Sustainable Development Act, the Sustainable Development Strategy, and coordinating interdepartmental interests. It supports the Sustainable Development Roundtable, comprised of stakeholders from around the province, and
the development and monitoring of indicators to ensure development adheres to the principles of sustainability. (p.13)

Sustainable Development Act?

Yes, that would be the same piece of legislation that was part of the Tory campaign platform in 2003, passed into law in early 2007 but never implemented.

The roundtable?

Doesn’t exist, apparently.

And that sustainable development strategy?  Well, if the Act had been put into effect, then the whole thing would already exist. Instead, government is trotting out yet another consultation to develop yet another strategy on things which apparently are beyond its ministerial competence and all of this is being done before they bother to put into an effect a commitment made in 2003.

For those who are counting that is a total of seven years to get exactly nowhere.

The Sustainable Development Act required that cabinet approve a comprehensive strategic environment management plan for the whole province within two years of the Act coming into force.  In other words, if this Act had been put into effect the year it was passed, the entire province – including the fisheries related bits – would already have a plan.

And then five years after that, the whole thing would be reviewed again complete with public consultation.

To put it bluntly, had the current administration done what it committed to do in 2003 and what it finally got around to passing through the House of Assembly in 2007, this entire business and a whole lot more besides would already be done or well under way.

As it is, one has to wonder why the SDA remains in mothballs and why this  particular “consultation” appears now, out of the blue, and focuses – as it appears – on areas over which the provincial government has no legislative jurisdiction.

Taken together with Friday’s announcement, it looks a we bit curious if not downright suspicious.

- srbp -

Related:

• “Your serial government at work” (2007)
• “To listen to old, archived messages, press 2…” (2006)
• “Res ipsa loquitur, once more” (2005)  a.k.a. “…and there shall be plans, and planning for plans and plans to co-ordinate the plans of the planning for plans…”

Economic recovery – not exactly as illustrated, part two

cbc.ca/nl is reporting an economic miracle in Grand Falls-Windsor.

That’s the town where the major private sector employer closed its doors and where the provincial government expropriated the mill and hydroelectric assets.

When AbitibiBowater stopped production at the mill in early 2009 there were concerns the town's economy would tank, but that hasn't happened.

This time last year, construction was started on 16 houses in Grand Falls-Windsor, but by this June, work had begun on 60 new homes in the town.

There’s even a comment in the electronic version of the story, the one that aired on the supper hour news, to the effect that uncertainty about the mill kept a lid on development.  Now that things are resolved, as it were, then people are now spending freely.

Well, that’s exactly the same sort of story the Telegram carried back in February;  but then, as now, the story looks more like a contrived bit of nonsense rather than a factual appraisal.

Take for example, the thing about housing and a supposed dampening effect before the mill close din early 2009.

As the Telly reported in February,  there were 118 housing starts in Grand Falls-Windsor in 2008, but only 50 in all of 2009.  You can get links to the Telly story and other details in the Bond Papers post from February.

Based on that, the current number of housing starts in 2010 is only 20% above the 2009 level. And even if the housing starts continued at the same pace and there were another 60 houses built in the second half of the year, that would only match the last year the mill operated.

That wouldn’t be too bad, if it turns out to be correct.  But it sure as heck is a far cry from the idea that people are thinking differently now that the fate of the mill is known.

The potential cause for the resurgence  - such as it is -  can be found in the sources of cash identified in the CBC story:

The town's hospital — the Central Newfoundland Regional Health Centre — is the community's largest employer. It serves people from dozens of communities in central Newfoundland who spend money in Grand Falls-Windsor when they come for health care.

You can add to that a bunch of other government offices moved into to the town under Brian Tobin’s administration and more recently by the Williams’ one.  In other words, the town is now dependent on government spending for its major economic activity. 

And what isn’t coming from government is coming from migrant labour.  That would be former mill workers who are commuting to places like Alberta.

And lastly there’s another source of growth:  retirees flocking home after a lifetime spent working on the mainland.  Nice as that is, those retirees only add to the burden of an economy where there are fewer and fewer people earning a wage compared to those in the so-called dependent portion of the population.

If you look at it, what you see in Grand Falls-Windsor is not the picture of some sort of miracle but rather of the increasingly fragile nature of the Newfoundland and Labrador economy. No amount of spin from a local car salesman can cover over the very real problems that fragility brings for a beautiful community and for the province as a whole.

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Audio Update:  CBC Central Morning Show.  Look at around 6:54 for the start.  The intro to one section repeats the “housing boom” – complete with the 16 to 59 numbers -  evidently because someone forgot to do a simple check of the facts.

Building permits continue downward slide

The value of building permits in Newfoundland and Labrador fell from $114 million in March to $65 million in May, according to figures released on Tuesday by Statistics Canada.  The value of building permits fell in seven of 10 provinces.

Residential building permits fell from $103 million to $50 million in the same time period.  Non-residential permits went from $11 million in March to $23 million in April before falling back to $14 million in May.

In the St. John’s census metropolitan region, permit value fell from $66 million to $44 million in the same time period. The permit value fell in 18 of the 34 census regions reported by Statistics Canada.

Note the relative change in St. John’s compared to the province as a whole.  St. John’s went from being 57.8% of total permits in March to 67% in May.  Things are evidently not as good outside the census metropolitan area as they are inside it.

-srbp-

Offshore board announces two more call for bids on offshore parcels

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board
today announced calls for bids on offshore parcels in the Flemish Pass/Central Ridge region.

Call NL10-02 consists of two parcels comprising 327,372 hectares while Call NL10-03 consists of one parcel of 3,773 hectares and a one significant discovery licence. This is the first time in 22 years a significant discovery license has been offered.

Description:

NL10-02 (Area “C” - Central Ridge/Flemish Pass)

Parcel No.1 is NL10-02-01

• Water depth ranging from 1000 to 2000m
• Total number of hectares = 201,951
• Total Number of Sections = 594

No wells were drilled on Parcel 1, however Mizzen 0-16, L-11 and Baccalieu I-78 are drilled on adjacent lands. Mizzen O-16 is an abandoned oil well by Statoil, which is SDL 1047. L-11 had an oil show. I-78 is abandoned.

The lands are North of SDL 1047

Parcel No.2 is NL-10-02-02

• Water depth ranging from 1000 to 2000m
• Total number of hectares = 125,421
• Total Number of Sections = 365

No wells were drilled on Parcel 1, however Mizzen 0-16, L-11 and Baccalieu I-78 are drilled on adjacent lands. Mizzen O-16 is an abandoned oil well by Statoil, which is SDL 1047. L-11 had an oil show. I-78 is abandoned.

The lands are adjacent and North of SDL 1047

No. NL10-02 (Area “C” - Central Ridge/Flemish Pass)

One SDL Parcel

Parcel No.1 is NL10-03-01

• Water depth ranging from 1000 to 2000m
• Total number of hectares = 3,773
• Total Number of Sections = 11

No wells were drilled on Parcel 1, however Mizzen 0-16, L-11 and Baccalieu I-78 are drilled on adjacent lands. Mizzen O-16 is an abandoned oil well by Statoil, which is SDL 1047. L-11 had an oil show. I-78 is abandoned.

The lands are North of SDL 1047.

- srbp -

Another new era…

Last Friday, it was a new era in fisheries research, supposedly.

Truth be told, a government that either doesn’t know what to do on a subject or that is afraid to do anything will launch a study. It’s a marvellous way of avoiding an actual decision while appearing to do something.

Friday’s $14 million buys a lot of avoiding and appearing without actually doing anything at all except spend yet more public money.

Meanwhile, the provincial justice minister will unveil a new era in corrections at ten in the forenoon this glorious July 6 as he unveils a brand new panel van in front of the Confederation Building.

A new truck, or as the media advisory christens it, a “prisoner transport vehicle”.

Masters of our domain we shall be as we enter a new era in criminal locomotive relocation on a go forward basis.

The universe can scarce withstand such wonders being unleashed so close together in time and space.

Ye gods!

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Unfortunate optics update:  organizing a ministerial newser to unveil a new pick-up truck is one thing, but positioning the results of government’s latest “investment” – no shit,  the release actually says “invested” – in front of the provincial legislature just invites a host of jokes.

Incidentally, the new Crimporter can hold up to 16 prisoners at any one time.

Don’t worry Jennifer.  No reason for them to suspect who is paying you. <weg>

And no fish swam

For an administration that has always been better known for delivering the sizzle rather than the steak, Premier Danny Williams’ announcement Friday of almost $14 million for fisheries research marks another achievement.

The announcement garnered swift editorial and political support. The Telegram gushed from the first sentence of Saturday’s editorial:

As a general rule, more information is better than less. And that's why the announcement that the province is getting into the fisheries research business in a big way is good news.

So too did the opposition leader, Yvonne Jones and fisheries critic Marshall Dean.  They think that the “funding allocation by the provincial government for fisheries science research is welcome news that should boost the industry’s chances to survive in the long-term.”

Even the language the Premier and the Opposition Leader used was similar.  As Williams put it:

No longer will we exclusively rely upon the research of others to guide the fishery into the future. Today, we once again take control of our destiny by investing in our own fisheries research and development.

Jones chimed in:

Clearly, one of the building blocks in this process [of rebuilding the fishery] has to be sound research that we can trust and use to make strategic management decisions in this industry.

All this is wonderful.  Memorial University and its Marine Institute get a bag of cash with which to hire some new graduate students and post-doctoral researchers.  Dr. George Rose gets a new job as the head of  something to be called the Centre for Fisheries Ecosystem Research.

Even the Irish government is happier after Friday.  The financially strapped country will get a bag of cash – the better part of half the total announced – to help operate its seven year old fisheries research vessel, the Celtic Explorer.

Friday’s announcement is three years overdue. The Progressive Conservative 2007 election platform included these commitments:

• invest $5 million a year in the province's research and development Crown corporation and dedicate $1 million of this funding exclusively for oceans research, [and…]
• provide $6 million for fishing industry research and developmental work over the next three years, which will include work associated with the development of new species, new products, new markets and new techniques to harvest, handle, process and market our marine fish resources.

The program announced on Friday seems to have less to do with genetic engineering [2007’s “development of new species”] or marketing and industry diversification as it does something else that does not appear to be defined beyond the notion that locally generated science might somehow be different from that produced by foreign infidels. The research vessel seems to be an idea cooked up on the spot by Danny Williams during the last provincial campaign.

Much about the announcement seems to be ill-defined.  The whole premise – that local scientists might discover some truths that others haven’t found or are hiding – is, itself, highly suspect.  Rose, for example, and other scientists at Memorial are quite knowledgeable about the fisheries ecosystem.  They and their predecessors have been studying the ocean and the creatures living in it for decades.

Perhaps that lack of definition is because the whole thing was hastily pulled together. It would appear that Friday’s announcement didn’t really exist until some six weeks ago. A month and a half ago, the provincial government was getting a political pounding for the latest in what has been a series of failures and fiascos.  The government has no fisheries policy worthy of the name;  that too has been painfully obvious from problems in some sectors of the fishery and the decidedly poor progress on the memorandum of understanding.

What better way might there be to get out of a raft of political sinkholes, one can imagine the Old Man thinking, than to change the channel.  Announce more cash for something  - it’s always about the money with these guys - and trot out the stuff that’s always worked before: the old pseudo-nationalist rhetoric. Never mind that the announcement will fall on a Friday smack in the middle of a holiday long weekend.

The one thing we know about this announcement is that it wasn’t about “[b]etter fisheries management through better fisheries science” and “an opportunity to improve and sustain this industry.”

The problem in the fishery today is the same as it was 18 years ago.  The problem is not a lack of knowledge, scientific (biological) or otherwise. The problem is a lack of political will to make decisions for a fishery that is both economically and environmentally sustainable.

Cod stocks collapsed because politicians opted to meet the demands of their constituents to keep fishing at unsustainably high levels when the scientists  - federally-funded scientists - said it would be a good idea to slow down or stop.  John Crosbie closed the fishery in 1992 because he had no choice.  There were no more fish.

And there never will be any more cod or any other fish stock for that matter as long as people disregard knowledge and make decisions based on unvarnished self-interest.  Whether it is the head of the hunters and gatherers union who wants to increase quotas on an endangered species (cod), to Open Line callers, or the blocheads who think cod jigging is some sort of racial entitlement or to the politicians  - federal and provincial  - who side with them daily, they all speak based on something other than sound, verifiable knowledge.

So spending $14 million won’t make a difference to that.

Spend $140 million.

Same result.

Heck, spend the entire anticipated cost of the non-existent Lower Churchill project - $14 billion – and you will still have the same calls for continued fishing.

Knowledge is not the problem in the fishery.

Impotence is.

And no amount of money, no army of scientists, no fleet of research vessels will ever find a little blue pill to cure that problem.

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Update:  The dog whistling worked.

Tentative deal at Vale in Ontario

From the Globe and Mail:

The end to a long-running and bitter strike in Ontario is in sight as mining giant Vale announced it reached a tentative agreement with production and maintenance workers on Sunday.

The metals miner says the agreement involves a new five-year contract with United Steel Workers Locals 6500 and 6200, which represent production and maintenance employees in Sudbury and Port Colborne.

No word on Sunday about a possible settlement of the year-long strike at Vale Inco’s Voisey’s bay operation.

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The harsh reality

While someone in the provincial government may have decided that an estimated population increase of 96 people was something to crow about, surely there is more good news than just that.

Why of course there is, as the new release writer tells us, via a quote from the minister involved:

For seven successive quarters now, there has been a net inflow of people to the province,” said the Honourable Tom Marshall, Minister of Finance and President of Treasury Board. “This sustained gain is encouraging, and an indication that more people recognize and have confidence in the opportunities offered in Newfoundland and Labrador.”

Sure enough, if you take the Statistics Canada numbers and graph them you will see what appears to be a net increase in population over time.

As the chart shows, there has been net growth overall  - not just in migration flow - in the last four quarters.
But just take a look at the drop from the third quarter in 2005;  10,000 fewer in the province by the middle of 2007 compared to two years earlier.  Since then the gains have been generally more modest each quarter.

Still, it’s an upward trend and those loyal to the cause will surely take that as a good thing.

Before you get too happy, though, try graphing the change in the population each quarter compared to the one previous to it.  You’ll get something that looks like this:
Here you’ll find something decidedly less comforting. Not only has there been a net loss in population over time, you can notice that there has been a rather precipitous drop in the rate of increase over the last three quarters.  in other words, while the population is going up each quarter, it is going by less and less.  First it was about 1350 or so in the second and third quarter of last year, then 533 and then a mere 96 for the first quarter of 2010.

That’s pretty much what you’ll see in the big chart of population, by the way.  Think of the most trend as being potentially like a ball thrown into the air: it goes higher and higher  but as it runs out of energy, it  climbs less and less.  Then at a point, gravity becomes the dominant force and down she comes again.

Now that may not be what is going on here, but odds are the net growth in population due to people coming here will start slowing.  The growth from the middle of 2007 onwards was due entirely to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians returning home as the first casualties of an impending recession.  Think of them as canaries in a coal mine.

Except for a big drop in early 2009, the population has been going up as the recession took hold nationally.  Stimulus spending took a while to work into the economy so there isn’t a perfect match between the local population and the deepening of the recession.  Overall though it’s a bit hard to mistake the connection between the recession on the one hand and the local growth in population.

And don’t forget, either, that the local economy actually shrank here by 10% last year.  If it wasn’t for the massive government infrastructure spending, things would have been much more bleak.  That public money continues to flow this year and  has already been credited with driving a huge chunk of the economic growth. 

It’s not like the province is an Alberta-like hotbed of private sector investment, no matter how much the provincial would like you to think otherwise.

So if things are actually getting better elsewhere, it would only make sense that the local population growth would slow down.  Don’t be surprised if the population starts to drop again within the next two quarters.

On the other hand, pay attention to the news.  If we are looking at a “w”-shaped recession – that is if there’s another slowdown – the population will jump up again.

And just to keep all this in perspective, take a look at an opinion piece in this weekend’s National Post.  The subject is Alberta.  Note the similarity in the situation there and here:

Last week, for instance, the government crowed that it had nearly demolished the projections for the 2009-10 deficit, overspending by just $1-billion instead of the nearly $5-billion expected. The reason, however, was due to higher-than-expected royalty revenues from the oil sands, and not more careful fiscal management in Edmonton, where spending continues to swell. This year's projected deficit is still heading toward breaking red-ink records, unless serendipity again intervenes.

There are other economic indicators to examine, as the Post piece notes, but just think about what it means when a provincial government crows about a net growth in population of a mere 96 people after a loss of 10,000 in two years.

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Traffic Drivers, June 28 to July 2

1. NL population up by estimated 96 people (28 Jun)
2. Potential investor quits mill talks, accuses government of “overt politicization”: CBC
3. Mind-boggled Dunderdale continues to blunder
4. In Alberta, they have problems too…
5. Beaumont Hamel
6. Potential GFW mill buyer in German bankruptcy protection for second time in six years (extend the date range to 26 Jun when this was first posted and it becomes the Number One story)
7. Five years of secret talks on Lower Churchill:  the Dunderdale audio
8. Motion Invest’s statement on Grand falls-Windsor project
9. A Crown corporation by any other name
10. Calamity Kath Dunderdale:  the Miracle Max ploy

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