Some Equalization background

The weekend tirade launched by Danny Williams against Stephen Harper - over something that doesn't exist yet - served as a reminder that the vast majority of people have absolutely no idea what Equalization is all about.

They couldn't explain offshore revenues to you if you put a gun to their heads.

In some instances they just tune out when the pols start hammering each other. As the radio call-in shows demonstrated on Monday, though, the Premier's ability to stimulate his Pitcher Plants - Danny's version of astroturf - remains undiminished.

Also undiminished is his willingness to mislead and misrepresent a complex subject, reducing into an emotional issue that some people continue to be deluded into accepting at face value.

On top of all that, the level of sheer ignorance on ths basic issues is staggering. On Night Line, one self-proclaimed "researcher" claimed that oil revenues from this province's offshore are not included in Equalization calculations at all.

Now that is just simply nonsense. Sadly it is typical of the nonsense - simple factual mistakes a grade schooler wouldn't make - this maven of the Open Line spouts. Sadly, misrepresentation is the stock in trade of a certain type of politician too.

Following are some links to previous Bond Papers on Equalization.

The first one - "Equalization for beginners" - explains the system in as simple a way as possible.

The second one - "Equalization: the experts report; the Premier reacts" - is a bit more detailed and summarizes some of the changes to Equalization proposed by a federally-appointed commission.

A couple of recommendations leap out in October as they did in June.

First of all, the panel recommended basing Equalization on actual revenues instead of projections. This would actually work well for Newfoundland and Labrador. All too often over the past decade and more we have found ourselves paying the feds back when their Equalization calculations underestimated how well the economy would do. This is one way to eliminate that problem of constantly having to pay out real cash in real clawbacks.

Second of all, the panel recommended inclusion of all resource revenues but only at the rate of 50% of revenues.

This has a couple of advantages for Newfoundland and Labrador. Right off the bat it hides 50% of all resource revenues from Equalization. Our offshore deals cover the other 50% of oil and gas cash.

Then, you have to realise it represents a compromise position. It's even a compromise between the position Danny Williams proposed last January to make the Equalization calculations - all revenue for all provinces - and the position Danny's own finance minister endorsed - all provinces, no non-renewable resources. Here's another post - "Equalization changes: Williams and Harper/Sullivan compared" - that looks more closely at the confusion within the provincial government on the Equalization file.

Overall though, the January 2005 offshore revenue deal should cover the 50% of oil revenue that isn't excluded from Equalization. Even if you realize that hydro-electric energy would be included in Equalization under those proposals as a renewable resource, Newfoundland and Labrador would enjoy a bonus it doesn't get today, namely hiding 50% of revenues from Equalization. Right now 100% is counted.

Still wondering what all this has to do with offshore revenues? Here's a link that will get you, ultimately, to a longer discussion paper on Danny Williams original offshore deal proposals.

Danny Williams: The Star Trek response

Danny Williams told us all over the weekend that he had signed a bad deal.

Of course, that isn't literally what Danny Williams said in his attack on Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

But implicitly, the Premier's latest tantrum is based on his own admission that his 2005 agreement with the Government of Canada did not provide the Equalization offset he claimed.

There's no other way to explain his apparent concern that federal handouts related to oil revenues to the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador would drop under an Equalization scheme the Prime Minister is supposedly going to implement.

The January 2005 deal was supposed to hide offshore oil revenues from Equalization. Otherwise, as oil revenues increased, the provincial government transfer from Ottawa - Equalization would drop.

Williams knew full well the range of possible changes to Equalization so his deal should have been bullet proof. Williams knew Stephen Harper's plan plus he knew the positions being taken by various provinces. Even if he couldn't tell exactly what would come out of the Equalization review, he certainly knew the best case and worst case positions.

And hey, this isn't something he can fob off to naivety. Danny was in this up to his arm pits from the start and kept total control of the negotiations right up until he ordered Loyola Sullivan to sign the deal.

Williams' concern this week that the province would lose money in changes to Equalization are proof that his 2005 deal was bad. It was bad because it didn't protect the offsets from known and anticipated changes to the Equalization formula.

It's that simple.

To make matters worse, though, Danny Williams now seems to be trying to get Stephen Harper to endorse Equalization changes Danny Williams himself didn't even support in his now-famous letter to the federal party leaders.

Danny Williams proposed that Equalization be calculated using all provinces and including all provincial revenues. He didn't want to hide anything from Equalization.

That's right.

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that Danny Williams is so keen to fight anyone that Danny Williams in October 2006 is willing to fight Danny Williams from January 2006.

And by extension, since - by his own admission - Danny is willing to fight anyone who has acted against the best interests of the province, he should he lambasting himself and the deal he signed in January 2005.

After all, by his own admission this weekend, Danny Williams signed a bad deal with the federal government.

Egad.

Suddenly I feel like Captain Kirk dealing with errant computers like Nomad and M-5.

Danny and the Moe Howard School of Diplomacy

[original 15 Oct 06; Updated 160800NDT Oct 06]

So much for kissing and make up with the federal government.

Offal News has as good a take on the weekend events at the provincial Tory convention as you will find.

No small irony that a guy who only five years ago made fun of the provincial Liberal government fighting with the federal Liberal government is now in a situation where he is fighting with everyone, big or small, Tory or heretic.

[Photo: Premier Danny Williams and finance minister Loyola Sullivan plan their next war with Ottawa in advance of the 2007 provincial general election. Not exactly as illustrated]

This is the New Approach, for sure.

Meanwhile, Canadian Press has reported on the weekend events (see below). For some reason, CP did not get any quotes on the Slander in Gander donnybrook from deputy premier Tom Rideout [Photo, right, exactly as illustrated]

Question: Is this the first time Premier Danny Williams has taken it upon himself to tell what went on in a private meeting only for us to discover later that what Danny said and what actually happened were two entirely different things?

Update: Here's the answer to the question. Danny Williams claimed Stephen Harper was prepared to consider so-called fallow field legislation for the offshore. Williams is looking for the legal power to force development of offshore fields. He raised the idea after failing to achieve a deal on Hebron.

CBC Radio is reporting this morning a statement from the Prime Minister's Office which rejects the idea. The PM never agreed to consider or think about it apparently. Take note of the reference in the CBC story to contracts fairly negotiated or something along those lines.

This seems like an oblique reference to the issues of bad faith bargaining raised here about Danny Williams' approach to negotiations with the oil companies. Steve doesn't likely read the Bond Papers, but he seems to be talking about the same issue and heading to the same conclusion about Danny.



Williams takes aim at Ottawa in drive for re election in Newfoundland
The Canadian Press
Oct 15, 2006

By Tara Brautigam

GANDER, N.L. (CP) _ Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams hopes to capitalize on a growing standoff with Ottawa in his quest for province-wide dominance in next year's provincial election.

Williams rallied his party at a weekend Progressive Conservative convention in Gander, with a fiery speech that drew a deep line between himself and Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

The premier warned Saturday night that he would urge Newfoundlanders to vote against Harper in the next future federal election if the province loses out in a revised equalization formula.

Hours earlier, Williams and Harper met in an effort to resolve their differences over several thorny issues, including a revised equalization formula. But their discussion about equalization only further chilled relations between the two Tory leaders.

The meeting was "heated,"' one of the premier's staffers said Sunday. [Ed note: This likely means the Premier was shouting, as he is wont to do, while the other person is being calm and professional.]

Williams has made a political career of fighting the federal government.

In December 2004, he pulled down the Canadian flags from provincial buildings during talks for a revamped Atlantic Accord to give Newfoundland full protection against equalization clawbacks on offshore royalties.

In early January, the flags went back up, and an agreement was reached after marathon talks in Ottawa a month later.

"Fighting the enormous resources of the federal government and achieving a new deal on the Atlantic Accord is not easy, but that doesn't mean it's impossible,"' Williams told about 600 supporters Saturday, indicating he would step up his battle against Ottawa before his re-election campaign.

"Stay tuned, you might be into round two before this one is all over."'

Williams also warned the party not to take the Oct. 9, 2007 election for granted, a message echoed by party president John Babb.

"A quick clean sweep? Who knows?"' Babb said. "But from our point of view, we're not making any predictions."

The Progressive Conservatives can make big gains in the next election, observers say.

At least two polls this year suggested Williams enjoyed an approval rating above 70 per cent, despite a government spending scandal that led to the resignation of Ed Byrne, one of his top cabinet ministers, in June.

But the Liberals have slammed Williams for neglecting rural Newfoundland and Labrador, areas beset by waves of residents moving to Alberta for work because of mass layoffs from the forestry and fisheries industries.

Currently there are 35 Progressive Conservatives in the provincial legislature, 11 Liberal members and one New Democrat.

A byelection has been called for Nov. 1 to fill a vacant seat in the Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi riding in St. John's, where high profile criminal lawyer Jerome Kennedy will run for the Tories against NDP Leader Lorraine Michael.

The Liberals are not running a candidate.

-srbp-

Saying it doesn't make it so

From Premier Danny Williams and his energy minister comes a news release taking issue with federal government forecasts of energy supply and demand in Canada.

The Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN) report omits reference to certain projects in Newfoundland and Labrador and adds to recent assessments that Newfoundland and Labrador is fast slipping behind the competition on everything from offshore oil and gas to the Lower Churchill project.

The Williams release is long and verbose, repeating his previous statements that all is well and looking good here.

A closer examination suggests otherwise. Simply put: NRCAN's projections are accurate in some areas and bizarrely out of date in others given the report was released last week. As for Premier Williams, saying things here in Newfoundland and Labrador are rosy in a windy news release does not make it so.

Take, for example, the Lower Churchill project which Williams touts as being "among the best undeveloped hydroelectric projects in North America, and yet it is completely discounted in the report."

The operative word is undeveloped. Hydro Quebec for example is considerably farther ahead of Williams in getting hydro projects into development.

As NRCAN puts it,

The reference case includes a number of hydro projects: in Quebec, large projects together with small facilities will add almost 2,000 MW of hydro capacity by 2009, at which time another 800 MW will be added to capacity elsewhere in Canada, principally in Manitoba. La Romaine with a capacity of 1,500 MW, will be in service in 2018. The Revelstoke and Mica projects in BC, with a combined capacity of 950 MW, will be in service between 2013 and 2015.

The Lower Churchill Falls proposal in Newfoundland and Labrador, and the Conawapa project in Manitoba were not included. These projects are not sufficiently well advanced into the planning stage to make an informed judgment on their capacity and timing. [Emphasis added]

NRCAN got it right. Williams is just talking but his talk simply can't erase the reality that Hydro Quebec is well advanced in developing its projects. Williams' Lower Churchill option hasn't even gotten to the point where costs have been accurately projected. Nor has Williams determined how he will finance a project estimated to cost an amount equal to the current provincial accrual debt load.

Williams mentions a second oil refinery for the province and a liquefied natural gas terminal which is under consideration. Unfortunately for the Premier, the second refinery remains an outside chance given competition from a recently-announced refinery in New Brunswick.

Similarly, the LNG terminal remains a paper project and is years away from development, if it is developed at all. Irving is already building an LNG terminal at Saint John processing imported natural gas for export to the American market.

As for local gas development, both technical issues and the long-awaited provincial gas royalty regime will determine whether gas might be developed or if it will go into the same holding tank alongside Hebron. Energy minister Kathy Dunderdale is quoted in the release as highlighting uncertainty in American natural gas imports. Apparently, she missed developments in the Gulf of Mexico which will see the development of gas reserves that are about two thirds the size of the entire reserves offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

Interestingly, the provincial government release does not take issue with NRCAN's forecast that sees Hebron coming on stream in 2011. That would have occurred if negotiations had ended successfully in April. As it stands, there are no signs of talks resuming within the next three to five years if at all. Even if, by some chance, talks resume and there is a deal within the next 12 months, Hebron could not meet the 2011 first-oil target assumed by NRCAN.

No 'ead on a pike

Not surprisingly, Ward Pike has taken some exception to a post a couple of days ago that drew attention to his observations on Rick Mercer. The kind of exception where maybe a head on a pole might be the only remedy.

Sadly for Ward, that will not be happening.

Now to be sure, let's make it clear: Pike is neither an anti-Semite or a homophobe.

The original version of his post on Rick Mercer (since re-written) appeared to be supporting comments that were anti-Semitic or homophobic, even if indirectly. Apparently, Mercer and the rest of the media which is, according to Pike either Liberal-dominated or Liberal-controlled, had no business criticizing what Pike called "Conservative values".

Go back and read Mercer's post and draw your own conclusions. More than a few have read both Mercer's comments and Pike's and drawn the conclusion we drew at Bond Papers.

Pike's e-mails made it pretty clear he thought it foul to point out that he appeared to be condoning anti-Semitism, even indirectly.

Apparently, though, the whole thing had nothing do with his writing. Indeed his revised post makes it Ward still doesn't get the point. Rather, the whole thing is part of some giant conspiracy. Mercer is part of the conspiracy to criticize Conservative values and, well at Bond Papers, we were obviously part of the big Liberal plot too. The revised post at Venison Tickle just change the nature of the plot to being "Leftist and Liberal".

Same plot.

New name.

Still no evidence it exists.

To cut a long post really short, let's just remind everyone that Ward Pike isn't an anti-Semite nor is he a homophobe.

But, even after three or four e-mails and the revised post about Rick Mercer, our original conclusion stands: the inanity of his post speaks for itself.

A little knowledge

[Updated 12 Oct 06; new introduction. Typos corrected

Andy Wells will be attending his first offshore board meeting tomorrow, as Wells appears to have advised local news media. Many people will be watching to see how things go.

One of the major decisions to be taken is on the development application amendment by the Hibernia partners to bring onstream 300 million barrels in the Hibernia South structures. It isn't known if that item is on the agenda for the Friday meeting or if it will be deferred for another few weeks.

The provincial government appears to be of the view that this should be a separate development with its own royalty and benefits agreement. Wells may simply stake that out as his position.

On the face of it, though, the proposal falls within the existing rules that would see the new fields brought online within the context of the original Hibernia agreement. Some recent projections have Hibernia reaching payout around 2011 which would move the provincial royalties to 30% from its existing level of around 5%. Adding the 300 million barrels to the old agreement would prolong the period in which Newfoundland and Labrador receives the second tier (30%) royalties. Until very recently, most informed opinion held that Hibernia would never see payout.

Treating Hibernia South as a new project would delay bringing the oil onstream owing to the need to negotiate royalties and benefits. If additional costs of development are added - like forcing a floating or fixed production system versus the proposal for tie-backs to the existing gravity-base structure - then the provincial government would receive relatively low royalties for a longer period before achieving the bonus of payout.

If the negotiation wound up like Hebron, there'd be no development. All of that even assumes that the oil companies would not challenge any effort to treat Hibernia South as a new project when, by all indications, it is properly viewed as an extension of the existing project.

Let's see what happens over the next few months.]
Over at the Independent, they are in the third week of a series on the terms of union between Newfoundland and Labrador and Canada.

This week the topic was oil and gas, but unfortunately John Crosbie - one of the architects of the real Atlantic Accord, 1985 one - was not there.

As a result, St. John's mayor Andy Wells got to dominate the panel with some input from Indy publisher Brian Dobbin and former Premier Roger Grimes. Unfortunately, the transcript of the session - edited and abbreviated down to about a half page and buried on page 14 of the print edition - isn't online.

You can get the front page story that appears to combine raportage with editorial commentary with a whole bunch of things that weren't in the transcript at all. If you check the transcript - as printed - the largest number of comments besides Wells' come from local writer Ray Guy. His comical, sarcastic interventions are worth reading; too bad there is no video of the session available.

Wells' comments are interesting on a number of levels, not the least of which is the recent flap over Premier Danny Williams efforts to install Wells as chairman and chief executive officer of the board that regulates the offshore oil and gas industry. That's the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador offshore Petroleum Board or C-NLOPB.

"The C-NLOPB is an important agency in terms of trying to advocate for industry in this province," he [Wells] says.

Now that comment isn't in the transcript and of course it must be noted that the board isn't an advocacy body at all. C-NLOPB is explicitly established as the regulatory authority for the offshore oil and gas industry. Nevertheless, Wells made it clear he would prefer to see a situation in which the provincial government "would control the board" as Wells put it in the transcript. Right now, the board operates at arms length from both the federal and provincial governments.

Wells' comments on the board as presented in the transcript don't say anything like what is contained in the front pager linked above. They are infinitely more curious since Wells appears to offer a couple of contradictory points of view.

For example, Wells said in the transcript:

...The problem I've got with it is not particular to the board (C-NLOPB), it's with all regulatory agencies, it's that the regulators become the regulated. And I'm not saying they're wining and dining and handing out cheques to people, just, psychologically, the regulators become too close to the people under regulation....

If you look at the act, there's a section in there about security of supply, and once again Canadian, the national security of supply is guaranteed, not infringed on, that as far as I'm concerned, the feds should just back away and let us run it [the offshore], like Alberta runs it....They're [the federal government is] determined to keep control...

...the model for the way we handle our industry is indeed the way the Norwegians do it...but we're screwed by the federal government...

Now this could be a case of Wells having a little knowledge; it could be a case where he is working - as he apparently told the Indy - to get up to speed on the board and the issues. Of course, while he is quoted as saying words to that effect in the front-page story, Wells' comments on the board both in the transcript and with other interviews suggest he has his mind pretty much settled.

Nevertheless, it is important to realize that the key to the Norwegian model is that the policy, taxation and regulatory functions are distinct and separate. The function of the Norwegian regulatory is to enforce the laws set by the Norwegian parliament.

In that respect, the existing structure of the C-NLOPB is exactly the same as the Norwegian model. Both federal and provincial environmental and occupational health and safety laws apply.

There has been a problem with several federal agencies exerting separate authority over the offshore for things like environmental and shipping regulation, but within the past two years, both the federal and provincial governments on the one hand and their joint agency C-NLOPB - on the other have taken steps to reduce the regulatory overlap and establish the offshore board as the single point of contact for offshore regulation.

If Wells' comments are taken at face value, though, he is proposing something that is diametrically opposite to the Norwegian approach.

As well, the St. John's mayor seems to have missed the sections of the Atlantic Accord (1985) that provide significant control to the provincial energy minister at a times when national and regional supply are secured. Wells also misses the fairly simple point that when it comes to issues such as revenue-setting and provincial benefits - policy and taxation - the provincial government has exclusive right to determine them, exactly as in Norway. It's exactly the same in Alberta. In practice, the difference between the existing management regime and one in which the provincial government had sole legislative authority over offshore oil and gas is hardly worth noticing.

It only gets mentioned by people with their own political agendas backed by precious little concrete evidence.

Wells seems to believe that both the oil industry and the federal government are "screwing" Newfoundland and Labrador, to use a phrase Wells himself used in the session. There isn't any evidence of that, particularly on the front page story where Wells is quoted as saying "... (The companies) don't want the province to have representatives in there, on the board -— companies want to get, and keep the upper hand."

Wells should know that appointments to the board are solely the responsibility of the federal and provincial governments. Each appoints three people and the board chairman and chief executive officer is appointed jointly.

Neither order of government can veto the appointment of the other and there is no ability of the oil and gas industry - either overtly or covertly - to keep provincial representatives from sitting on the board. Wells should know that since there are likely more than a few industry representatives who would have worked strenuously to keep Wells off the board - if they could.

But since the provincial cabinet alone appointed Wells, there was no way anyone - not the federal government, not the industry - could keep any provincial cabinet from exercising its legal authority.

But lookit: if that is what Andy Wells actually said about the industry, the board and provincial government appointments, then Wells clearly doesn't know what he is talking about.

As for the fallowfield issue, it apparently never got mentioned by the Indy panel. That is, it never got mentioned unless Wells was criticizing the federal government for refusing to implement legislation giving Danny Williams the power to force the Hebron field into development on his terms.

Even there, though, the province can make changes to offshore regulations and licensing in co-operation with the federal government. Just understand, though, that there is no stomach in Ottawa for any kind of legal hammers aimed specifically at one or another of the oil companies.

The rules need to be clear and they need to be fairly and consistently applied to everyone.

Simply put, the "feds" - as some sort of mythical foreign bogeyman - aren't out to screw us.

That said, the screws are usually put to "us" very effectively by our own people who use a little information to fuel their own personal agendas. That's something we should be watching for in the weeks and months ahead.

Only in Newfoundland and Labrador...

would a Premier spend well over $1.0 million of scarce taxpayers dollars to convince the people of the province that they are all vegetation.

He must think we are putzs.

If you don't believe it, check your mailboxes. Tens of thousands in mailing costs, not counting the graphic design costs and the printing of the high-gloss, full-colour piece called simply "The Pitcher Plant".

If you don't believe it, watch the NTV Evening News, where a 30 second block of airtime can cost at least $1,000 per.

Then watch as the same video airs twice in the space of a minute and a half and at least one other time in the first half hour of the show.

Thousands upon thousands of dollars spent each evening.

On sentence fragments.

To convince us that we are a plant that is found here.

And here alone.

Even though.

That.

isn't.

true.

On any level.

Only in Newfoundland and Labrador.

So it's okay to be an anti-Semite, Ward?

Or maybe you just share the anti-homosexual views of Darrel Reid and James Dobson.

Anyway.

Some time ago, Bond Papers established a policy of not directing free traffic to some websites. Frankly, some of them didn't deserve the attention they were getting.

But a post on Venison Tickle, a blog that purports to offer "outside the box thinking" is worth exposing to a national audience.

Seems the author - Ward Pike - has a problem with Rick Mercer's latest rant that, among other things, draws attention to some questionable comments by Rona Ambrose's newbie chief of staff and some of his associates on both Jews and homosexuals. The shorter video version is at cbc.ca.

Pike suggests, among other things, that Mercer's rant is part of the Liberal bias in Canadian media. As Pike puts it:

You see so many anti-Conservative party of Canada rants, it makes you want to "de-tune" or "tune out" man. This constant desensitizing to the Liberal plot to vilify and sensationalize any Conservative value with comments like "are you or have you ever been near a homosexual" no longer serve to marginalize the CPC but instead serve to show the majority of voters how weak and pathetic the Liberals and their cronies, like Rick Mercer, have become.

Having trotted out the old Connie conspiracy theory about media bias, Pike ends up with this gem:

I realize that heavily left-biased programming (er... thinking) fits in well with the vast majority on the CBC payroll (I hesitate to use the word workers, as I have seen people work, worked myself...and I have been to the CBC)...but it doesn't jive with today's actual grip on reality.

Grip on reality? Anti-semitism is real, as in okay?

Conservative values? That includes anti-semitism. I know Conservatives who'd disagree on that one, even though they'd readily admit Conservative values don't include supporting freedom of choice in everything from a woman's control of her body to sexual expression.

At this point, I tried several different ways of summarizing Pike's position and pointing out the obvious factual, logical, historical and ethical problems with it.

But frankly, it's hard to top the sheer inanity of Ward's own words.

Instead, let's just let Pike speak for himself.

That still doesn't explain Harbour Breton

Okay, Danny.

You're right.

It was politically naive to have pledged you wouldn't let the Abitibi mill at Stephenville close.

That still doesn't explain your similar pledge to the people of Harbour Breton.

Or the people of Goose Bay.

For that matter, it doesn't explain your threats to expropriate property.

Since you haven't expropriated the property - in fact you have subsidized Abitibi's other operations instead - it's hard to see how "myself and my government have done everything we can to try and save it, including stepping up significantly in order to save that mill, and I can't do any more than that...".

There's something insincere in Danny's mea culpa.

Abitibi cuts; Danny pays subsidies

Abitibi Consolidated announced on Tuesday that the company was closing lumber mills and laying off 700 workers in order to staunch the bleeding to its bottom line caused by slackening demand, a higher Canadian dollar and rising energy costs.

The cuts, to Abitibi's Quebec lumbering operations, will see four mills close. The American news organization Bloomberg attributes the Abitibi cuts to slowdowns in the American home construction and renovation market.

Last week, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale announced the provincial government would subsidize power rates to the major industrial power users on the island portion of the province. Dunderdale described the CDN$10 million subsidy as a payment representing the portion of the Rate Stabilization Plan owed by the now-defunct Abitibi mill at Stephenville.

Curiously, the amount of the annual subsidy is the same as the total amount Danny Williams previously offered to Abitibi in order to keep the Stephenville mill open. Bond Papers previously established that Williams' original subsidy represented up to $3.0 million more than the Stepehenville mill generated in tax revenue for the provincial government.

The current subsidy represents a complete loss to the treasury since the remaining mills have not increased output to replace the production at the Stephenville mill.

The new subsidy effectively reduces power costs to the two remaining paper mills, one at Grand Falls-Windsor and the other at Corner Brook. The province's news release did not clearly indicate the duration of the subsidy.

Kruger's Corner Brook Pulp and Paper employs 1300 people in its harvesting, papermaking and power generation facilities. Abitibi's Grand Falls-Windsor plant employs 490. The government subsidy amounts to $5, 586.60 per employee.

If I had a million dollars...

of public money to spend, you can rest assured it would not have been wasted on an over-hyped tourism wordmark.

Nope.

Especially when it is being touted as a "brand" and business minister Kevin O'Brien - the guy responsible for selling the thing - can't tell the difference between a brand and a logo. Open Line host Randy Simms raised that point with O'Brien, who proclaimed his own extensive business background, and while O'Brien said he knew the difference, his comments demonstrated he didn't have a clue.

If I had a million bucks of public money, I'd spend it to promote breastfeeding in Newfoundland and Labrador. There is a public shame that groups interested in promoting child health have had to go public on their own to raise this important health issue.

As the CBC news story linked above states:

Doctors agree that breastfeeding is the best way to protect newborns from early childhood disease, because mother's milk contains antibodies that help babies fight infections.

About 63% of new mothers in Newfoundland and Labrador begin breastfeeding, compared to 85% nationally. The real test is how many are still breastfeeding when their babies are six months old.

According to the Breastfeeding Coalition of Newfoundland and Labrador:

In Newfoundland and Labrador, there has been an increase in the initiation of breastfeeding over the past 20 years. In 1983, 31.9% of women initiated breastfeeding (11) with 62.7% of women initiating breastfeeding in 2003. (12) However, 62.7% is the lowest initiation rate among the provinces and territories in Canada. Furthermore, the duration rate at 6 months is 27.5 % at 6 months, with 11.1% exclusively breastfeeding at 6 months. These statistics tell us that we are living in a culture where breastfeeding is not the norm.

Fewer than half the women who start breastfeeding are still nourishing their children that way six months later and only 11% are breastfeeding exclusively.

A simple campaign to promote breastfeeding would hardly cost $1.0 million. But even if it wound up costing the government twice that amount, the long-term health benefits to the people of the province would vastly outweigh the expenditure. (Left - poster from a breastfeeding campaign featuring television celebrity Lucy Lawless)

Curious refinery logic

CBC radio snagged Brian Dalton, spokesperson for the group studying the possibility of building a second refinery in Placentia Bay.

He was asked to comment on the prospects that the Irving's announcement of a second refinery at Saint John hurt the potential Dalton's team would go ahead with their project.

[Dalton] said Saint John and Placentia Bay - the site of North Atlantic Refining's operation in Come By Chance and the prospective site for its plans - are the top two ports on the continent for refining traffic.

"You can look in Europe, you can look all along the Eastern Seaboard of North America...these two sites just stand out," Dalton told CBC News.

That's another one of those "Huh?" moments. The ones where you look at the words and develop that face like a dog hearing a noise he can't quite figure out.

The site isn't the driver. It's the cost and the potential to return the money invested.

Dalton didn't speak to that point, nor did he speak to the fact that event Irving's are trying to find funding partners.

Like Dalton's group, which has practically no experience in refinery construction and operations.
But plenty of experience bankrolling projects.

Hmmm.

At Bond Papers, we'll stick to our contention that Irving put a major dent in prospects for a second refinery in this province when they announced a second refinery for the New Brunswick port city.

We'll even add to that.

The chances are much higher now that the overseas investors Dalton and Altius Minerals has lined up will be looking hard at going into business with the Irving's in New Brunswick rather than sinking their billions into a greenfield project in Newfoundland and Labrador.

For some, it's youtube.com.

For others, it's despair.com

Like towniebastard.

Victoria tourism spot-on

When you've finished being suitably appalled at the throw-back tourism piece from Dallas, consider the superlative - and seasonal - writeup on Victoria, British Columbia.

Victoria is a marvelous city. Even if I hadn't been there already, I'd want to go there - in October - and visit this supposedly spooky place.

The St. John's of writer Mcclaine is creepy but for all the wrong reasons.

Tourism SNAFU

A story in Sunday's Dallas-Fort Worth Star-Telegram seems filled with every cliche about Newfoundland you can find.

If this piece fits with any of the current marketing messages we ought to be using, then maybe we need to do more than think of a cute logo. Maybe some marketers need to be shot and their heads mounted on poles, pour encourager les autres. For crying out loud, a chunk in the middle is nothing more than a recitation of jokes using The Other N-Word.

Someone might want to take the guys aside at this golf course and set them straight on how to deal with customers:

I had been warned to "pack an umbrella and maybe some snow boots" by the folks who operate the semi-private, 36-hole Clovelly Golf Course, even though I was going to be visiting in late summer.

If the N-word stuff wasn't bad enough, there's talk of the local minstrel shows, otherwise known as "Screech-ins", in which locals adopt the very best Stepin Fetchit attitudes:

To be screeched in is to be officially welcomed as an honorary Newfoundlander. It's an age-old ritual involving rum, a ridiculously nonsensical incantation ("Is ya a Screecher?"; "Indeed I is me ol'cock!"), a chunk of bologna ("Newfie steak") and the kissing of a fish, but as we had no cod, I had to kiss a puffin. A carved one, but about as hygienic as the Blarney Stone on a busy day.

The only thing harder to imagine than this thing being written today as opposed to 40 years ago?

That a single traveler in Dallas-Fort Worth will bother to head to a place farther away from DFW than Honolulu.

Notice that fact gets mentioned.

The city Buzz Mcclaine wrote about is not a place to visit; it is a place to read about and avoid.

Logo loogies

Some logo-related quickies for a holiday Monday:

1. Ontario is in the grip of a controversy for the new version of the trillium being proposed by the McGuinty government. The original trillium design as the visual identification for the government has been around since 1964. (right)





The new version (left) has been called three men in a hottub.

2. So too in Manitoba has there been controversy over logos and wordmarks. in this case the province created a new workmark "Spirited Energy" to replace "Friendly Manitoba".

The new wordmark could suggest that Manitoba's drive is derived from an attachment to a belief in ethereal beings - i.e. they have a hard time dealing with reality - or from a drive to the local liquor store, again suggesting a difficulty with reality.

The old one just suggested a place that was very generous with its affections.

Manitoba needs to go back to the drawing board.

3. Surprisingly, not every Newfoundland and Labrador logo has been replaced, even the sites run by the provincial government.

- As of Thanksgiving Monday, the government's business development site, nlbusiness.ca, is devoid of the new business-attracting logo. This situation still exists even though the provincial government's own website - gov.nl.ca changed on the day of the announcement. Government's job ads had a new format this past weekend as well.

- Ditto for the tourism site, even though the new Danny-mark is supposed to lure more tourists here, what with its innate "quirkiness" and all. Nope, newfoundlandandlabradortourism.com is still using one of the many other old logos (left) instead of the new Danny-logo.

Maybe they didn't get the memo.

- Same could be said of the crowd responsible for the health help line. Friday's mail brought a little information package including some telephone stickers and a cheap fridge magnet. (right) Will these have to be re-printed and at what cost?





And a gajillion instances of the old government logo (left). For the purposes of illustration, we have taken the logo and adjusted it slightly to take out the words "Government of". The main part of this logo is the shield from the province's coat of arms, granted in 1638.

Compare this one to the Little Logo of Horrors version currently sanctioned from on high.

Our plastic identity

On the heels of the tourism bed sheet fiasco comes the new provincial tourism logo, being grossly oversold by Danny Williams as the answer to all our prayers.

Apparently, it is not merely a tourism logo but the one symbol by which one people will be known with one voice coming from one leader. (Check out the full page print ads running this week. Shades of Ein volk, Ein Reich... but I digress.)

Anyway, an astute Bond Papers reader discovered an odd similarity between Danny's Logo and the Irish tourism logo. The Irish one features the word "Ireland" surmounted by a lovely green shamrock.

Now the shamrock is an established Irish icon, much like the Irish harp featured as part of the official government visual identity. The pitcher plant is by no means as clearly identified with Newfoundland and Labrador as is the shamrock with Ireland. Nevertheless, Newfoundland is surmounted by a local three-headed substitute.

Take it a step further and you'll notice that there are - inexplicably - three beach ball/pods on the Newfoundland and Labrador word mark, although the pitcher plant does not, as a rule, grow more than one stem and flower. There's no obvious reason for there to be three beach balls if the new Newfoundland and Labrador tourism logo is supposed to represent the pitcher plant. But three are there.

So what does it represent? Put the question to the government publicity machine and they will spit back and answer: whatever they want it to mean. Biblical allusions might be accepted.

At the same time as you are pondering the curious number of rip-offs similarities between stuff Danny has been pumping out and other people's work, think about the way Danny Williams has oversold his own little logo as being the embodiment of everything under the sun to replace the 40-odd logos already out there.

Do an "audit" in Ireland and you'd likely find as many logos or more. In Ireland, the official government logo/visual ID continues to be the Irish harp. There would seem to be no overwhelming reason to change it just as there was no overwhelming reason to do away with the old provincial government visual ID. It may have needed some tweaking, but fundamentally it worked for its purpose. Now, we have replaced a symbol of authority with a cutesy child's drawing of some alien invaders as the visual symbol of a government.


In the Irish business development agency, there is a specific logo for the initiative itself (left). The government program the agency falls under has another logo (right) which incorporates the harp; that tells you it is a government initiative.

Now it should strike you as odd that Danny Williams has turned around and banished all but his own logo. That is, odd if the so-called Irish tiger has been as successful as it has been with all these logos and word marks, and Newfoundland and Labrador under Danny Williams is supposed to emulate the Irish model and thereby Ireland's success.

Well, the obvious answer is that the Danny-logo has nothing to do with anything he claimed.

We've noted that already.

On another level, this logo business is just another example of how some people treat our history and identity as something they can re-invent for their own personal purposes.

It is our plastic identity.

That phrase Bond Papers tossed out before - the Celtification of Newfoundland and Labrador - didn't just fall from the sky. It came originally from a character very closely associated with Danny Williams. It should come as no surprise that somewhere in Danny Williams' agenda, the stuff he manages to do best - or focus most on - are the things having to do with image and identity.

While its advocates say otherwise, at its heart, the image manipulation displays a fundamental contempt for the province, its people, their history and traditions. The image manipulators treat our own culture - supposedly their own culture - with the same contempt they displayed in the Canadian flag fiasco.

More than anything else though the energy expended on rearranging the symbols of identity is just a demonstration of the fundamental bankruptcy of the position these cynics put forward.

The more effort a government spends on playing with our plastic history or our plastic identity, the less work they are doing laying concrete foundations for our future.

That's the real image the Danny-logo represents.

-30-

Sunday Funny: Kill 'em with Komedy

In politics, some of the most devastating attacks can be done with humour or, as in the example to follow, ridicule.

Head to youtube.com and you can find plenty of excerpts from Triumph des willen [Triumph of the will], Leni Reifenstahl's 1935 propaganda masterpiece. Wagnerian music, goose-steppers galore and some camerawork that creates a truly breathtaking view of the 1934 Nazi Party rally in Nuremberg.

Breathtaking that is, if you don't have any idea what Hitler and his lackeys' were up to at the time and planning to do later.

But the over-the-top posturing of the Nazis easily lent itself to a simple human emotion that pulls the whole thing into perspective: humour.

During the Second World War, British and American propaganda teams tended to rely more on humour to poke at Hitler for popular consumption. Cartoons were especially popular and both Warner Brothers and Disney in the United States produced training films and propaganda films as animated shorts.

One of the numerous examples of their comedy art is in this Universal newsreel from the early 1940s. It takes clips of Hitler and of German soldiers marching and edits them together Doin' the Lambeth Walk, a tune from a popular pre-war West end musical. The result is hilarious over 60 years later. Lambeth Walk was also a London street particularly hard-hit by Nazis aircraft druing the Blitz.

The two minute clip was effective at the time.

Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels is said to have stormed from the screening room cursing and knocking over furniture when he was shown this.






Of course, sometimes, ridicule isn't part of an orchestrated political attack. Sometimes some over-the-top posturing leads to ridicule that just happens naturally.

Right, Danny?

Danny's Gang or the Friday Five O'Clock Follies

It's late on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

What better time for the provincial government to release some major announcements. Heck, a complete waste of time - like the new Danny-logo, hailed as the most stupendous event in the province's history, or words to that effect - can get huge amounts of government dollars.

But what warrants government sliding it out late in the week?

Try this stuff:

1. "Stephenville? Where's Stephenville?" said the Premier. The environment minister releases the Abitibi mill closure from environment assessment review. Only a few short years ago, Danny Williams was promising the mill would not close on his watch. It didn't. He meant the watch on his arm and there was never a plant on his watch. It couldn't. The mill it Stephenville is inanimate. There was no way it could close in on Danny's watch as long as he stayed out of the building.

2. Subsidizing industry, without saying it. The announcement - actually on Thursday - that government will be handing $10 million to Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro to pay for electricity that normally would have been used by the above-mentioned Abitibi mill.

The provincial government is effectively subsidizing the electricity rates to Kruger and to Abitibi's Grand Falls operation. He previously rejected an industrial energy subsidy to Fishery Products International.

Presumably, this subsidy will only be paid until the INCO smelter is built at Long Harbour. That is, when the Premier stops trying to hold up the construction.

During talks with Abitibi about the Stephenville mill, Williams committed to pay the company an energy subsidy up to a maximum of $12 million a year if the mill stayed open. That amount was actually larger than the tax revenue government gained from the mill's operation.

Expect that one of the natural resources minister's talking points notes that the $10 million subsidy is actually lower than the previous commitment to Abitibi and is being shared with the mill at Corner Brook run by Kruger.

A large double-double to the reporter who puts that to the minister an doesn't hear back the talking point given here or a close variation.

3. Fewer ferries operated by a private sector, not-for-profit. Transportation minister John Hickey released a long-awaited study into the province's ferry system.

The consultant recommended reducing the size of the fleet from 14 vessels to 12. It also recommended having the system run by a not-for-profit but privately incorporated entity like BC Ferries.

The vessel replacement portion of the plan is estimated at $80 - $90 million spread out over time.

The minister's new release contains very little factual information, incidentally, but it does have tons of partisan rhetoric. That's what you have to resort to when either:

a. You didn't read the study before you wrote the release; and/or,

b. You are politically afraid of the increased ferry rates resulting from the decision.

Expect the departmental talking points, drafted by Krysta Rudofsky's former sidekick, will play up the millions in new work for the Marystown Shipyard.

This way of spinning the message would be a political salve for the considerably more Marystown lost in the Premier's failed Hebron deal. People in Marystown will recall that they could have been doing Hebron and the ferries.

4. "You'd make more with FPI's wage cut offer." Not long after Danny Williams suggested workers at Fishery Products International go back to work for the wage cut being offered by the company, comes an announcement from fish minister Tom "Tovarisch" Rideout of a make-work project for former fishplant workers at Marystown. (Left: Our man in Moscow)

Rideout spent an unusually long-time last week gathering market intelligence by hanging out around fishmonger stalls in Moscow. Unusual, because while Rideout was on this hastily organized junket, his cabinet colleagues were approving the sale of the former FPI plant at Harbour Breton to Barry Group. Rideout had condemned the sale as illegal.

Rideout slags FPI in this release, but by now we all know that when the going gets tough, Tom will probably be on a flight to Moscow or Tahiti or God knows where. Anywhere but in cabinet as it decides to do the opposite of what Tom said.

Political advertising: Gutsy and inexpensive can work

The Massachusetts gubernatorial race has an independent candidate, Christy Mihos. He recently began airing an animated 30 second spot that hits on a big issue in Mass: the massive cost over-runs on the Big Dig in Boston.

Animation is one of the earliest forms of advertising used on television. It still crops up from time to time, but one rarely sees an animated political spot these days. Rather, the political television spot has evolved in a particular pattern with most advertising for candidates following much the same general pattern.

Mihos obviously found a way to tackle an important issue, but in a light-hearted way. His message can potentially have a bigger impact by using humour and the novelty of animation.

Contrary to what some people would have you believe, good advertising doesn't need to cost a million bucks and be laden with expensive animation and a custom-tailored jingle all to push a pretty run-of-the-mill logo concept. If the provincial government here had actually listened to their top-notch marketing firm, their so-called branding campaign would likely look a lot different and have cost considerably less.

Word is that the suits on the Hill - or more accurately The Suit - kept getting in the way. Sometimes clients get into the process to help; sometimes they just hinder themselves by refusing to take the sound advice they are getting and that they paid for.

If Mihos doesn't make it in November, maybe someone here should see if he wants to change citizenship. At least, we can all take a lesson from a pol who has guts and isn't afraid to act on his instincts.

More logo madness

Over at RJ:Product, they are running a contest for alternative logo designs for Newfoundland and Labrador.

The submissions are pretty funny so far. One stands out though since it riffs on the fairly obvious Little Shop of Horrors theme.

Enjoy!

Chances of second refinery in NL more remote

Chances of a second refinery being built in Newfoundland and Labrador dropped again Wednesday with news that oil prices continued a downward turned and Irving is planning to double its refining capacity at Saint John with the construction of a new facility there.

Plans for refinery are expected to be unveiled Thursday in a presentation to the Saint John Board of Trade.

The second Saint John refinery will reportedly have the capacity to refine 300, 000 barrels per day. It will join the existing Irving refinery in the city that processes about 250,000 barrels per day. Irving is reportedly planning to upgrade at a cost of $1.0 billion.

The new refinery project is in addition to another Irving venture to build a $750 million liquid natural gas terminal in the New Brunswick port city. Having a reliable supply of natural gas is reportedly crucial to the development of the second refinery.

Word of the second refinery for Saint John made business news across the country.

Meanwhile in Newfoundland and Labrador, little is being said today of Danny Williams wordmark announcement yesterday. The exception is in the land o'bloggers and on the province's radio call-in shows where callers organized by the Premier's Office continue to battle ordinary citizens who complain about the $1.1 million plus price tag for the project thus far.

There was no mention of Williams' initiative - reputedly able to solve the province's economic woes - in any of the country's major newspapers.

On the business front in Newfoundland and Labrador, plans for a natural gas processing facility located in Placentia Bay remain little more than a rumour. Any development of natural gas offshore Newfoundland and Labrador remains contingent in part on technical developments and, especially on the province's natural gas royalty regime. The royalty structure is expected to be released by the provincial government in December after nearly a decade of study.

A consortium studying a second oil refinery near the site of the existing Come-by-Chance facility is proceeding to a detailed design and costing phase of its evaluation. A decision on whether or not to proceed with construction is expected before the end of 2006.

That decision will hinge on several factors but undoubtedly one will be competition from new construction or upgrades to existing facilities that are already feeding the lucrative New England market. Saint John is the closest Canadian refinery to New England. Refined product can be shipped to the United States by tanker from the Port of Saint John or by land.

Harvest Energy, new owners of the Come-by-Chance facility, have already signaled their intention to increase the refinery's capacity.

In other Newfoundland and Labrador energy news, the $10 billion dollar Hebron project remains dead despite efforts by Danny Williams and his senior officials to lure the companies back to the negotiating table. Talks aimed at developing the 500 million barrel field ended acrimoniously in April with Premier Danny Williams threatening to find a legal way to force the oil companies to develop the project on his terms.

Newfoundland and Labrador finance minister Loyola Sullivan also commented Wednesday on Fraser Institute report that indicated Newfoundland and Labrador may spend upwards of half its annual budget on health care by 2030 if current trends continue. Sullivan said health costs are rising at an uncontrollable rate and that something would need to be done. Sullivan offered no indication of what the provincial will do or why it has allowed health care spending to grow uncontrollable.

Under the Constitution, health care is entirely the responsibility of the provincial government, although some provinces. Since taking office in 2003, Premier Danny Williams has continued to demand increased transfer payments from Ottawa to provide core provincial responsibilities. This is despite the government's growing oil revenues and despite Williams having rejected a Hebron development deal that would have delivered to provincial coffers royalties and other revenues greater than the provincial accrual debt. Further development of other fields near Hebron would have greatly increased provincial revenues over the life of the project.

Another rejected Danny wordmark concept

Intrepid dumpster divers braved rotting heaps of leftovers from the countless meetings it took to come up with Danny Williams' Great Brand to find one of the entries that came closest to being adopted.

Williams revealed a wordmark on Monday that, if he is to be believed, is the only thing needed to turn the province from despair to prosperity. Only thing that is except for keeping him as The Leader.

According to notes in the file, this concept was designed to appeal to Williams' townie nationalist sensibilities. The bold venture was rejected, if the cryptic notes scribbled in Latin in the margin are any guide, since it was felt that the Celtification of Newfoundland (and Newfoundland Labrador) should be gradual as part of a process of inventing history and tradition to replace what actually occurred and existed.

Note the prominent placement of Danny Williams' preferred flag of Newfoundland. (and Newfoundland Labrador).

You'll never know how close we came to becoming known as the Land of Fish.

Demotivational Posters

From the geniuses at Despair Inc, comes a program to let you create your own Demotivation poster.
(h/t to towniebastard)

Rejected Danny Logo Concepts

A savy reader of the Bond Papers pointed out that what Danny Williams unveiled yesterday is actually a wordmark and not a logo.

Absolutely correct, but the distinction between brand and logo is the same as the one between brand and wordmark so the bulk of the previous post - Where's the beef? - still holds up.

Anyway, found in a local dumpster was this picture (left) of a design concept for the new Danny Branding Project that was rejected as being a bit too carnivorous.

Also rejected as being inappropriate was the other famous carnivorous plant, the Triffid. Many of us recall that book from our grade-school English classes and I know that when I saw the stalky things in the new Danny wordmark, the first thing that came to my mind was: triffid (right).

Somewhere along the line, someone suggested that there might some value in acquiring the rights to adapt the song (below) from Little Shop of Horrors in which the carnivorous plant explains just exactly how the world is gonna work now that he's on Earth. Notes found with the rejected design concepts above suggest that while the client was generally satisfied Audrey II's sentiments were an accurate description of the New Approach, it was felt the name of the plant might lead to a bit too much ribald humour at Danny's expense.

Apparently it's one thing to do it privately but no one felt the government should implicitly declare it okay to poke fun at The Leader.

Well, that shouldn't stop the rest of us from imaginging what might have been:

Where's the beef?

At the outset, let's make it clear what Danny Williams announced yesterday and what he didn't.

He announced a new logo for the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, to replace the shield from the coat of arms that has been used for the past 15 years.

A logo is nothing more than the visual identity. It's the sign or symbol that helps distinguish a particular product, company or organization from the multitude of other similar things out there competing for attention.

Danny announced a logo (right).

Logo versus brand

Nike's swoosh is a logo. It is the way potential athletic apparel consumers find a Nike product on a shelf or a rack. Nike advertising is designed to do a couple of things, one of which is train people to identify the logo.

Ford has had the same logo since the first Model A rolled off the assembly line. It's the word FORD in a blue oval.

No one - except the odd bobble head - buys a pair Nike running shoes or a Ford truck because they think the logo is cute.

They buy the product for other reasons, most of which is the relationship that has grown up between that consumer and the product.

They buy the product.

Based on a relationship.

Based on a reputation.

And that's what distinguishes brand from logo.

A brand is built on the cumulative thoughts, emotions and feelings individuals about a product, service, company or organization.

Companies spend considerable sums to develop and maintain the most positive relationships imaginable. Sure they advertise. But they also pay attention to things like the greeting you get when you call the company offices, the efficiency of the service you get and ultimately, the ability of the product or service being sold to deliver on its promises.

Look at it this way: VOCM is a powerful brand in the local media community. But the brand is built on delivering entertainment and news that consumers want. We know they want the VOCM product because regular measurement of audiences show how many ears are tuned to the VO frequencies. The brand reputation is built on the consistent record of community involvement. The logo is almost irrelevant.

If VOCM paid someone to spend eight hours a day dragging fingernails across a chalkboard, they would only get the most masochistic of listeners - a very small population at the best of times. The fact they have a magical logo would be irrelevant. For the majority of consumers, the product sucks even if the logo is pretty.

Product sucks; logo is cute; brand still sucks.

The Williams Logo

With that distinction understood, let's take a look at what this logo initiative is really all about.

Danny Williams' entire administration is built around the idea that everything changed in Newfoundland and Labrador when he became Premier. Very early in his administration he began looking for a new visual image to reflect that. The $98,000 baseline research contract for the logo initiative was awarded to Target in late 2004, with treasury board approving an exception for the contract from the normal public tendering process.

Over the next two years, Williams examined every existing visual symbol of the province. he did it in the context of the logo project but, as as been reported elsewhere, he also polled on attitudes toward the flag. Williams himself was reportedly surprised that the Peckford flag was more popular than his own personal choice, the Pink, White and Green.

The problem with all of those other symbols - from the Coat of Arms first granted in 1627 and adopted by the Dominion of Newfoundland three centuries later to the Peckford flag - is that they were introduced by someone other than Danny. Never mind that they are already well-established and popular with Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. They were someone else's symbols. They weren't Danny's.

What Williams settled on reflects Danny Williams. The pitcher plant is not used; that symbol is commonplace. Williams has approved the stems and flowers, a portion of the flower rarely seen in real life and even then, they are stylized not literal. The name of the province is also changed, rendered in both a Danny-blue colour and in a faux-Celtic font. Again the font and the celtification of the province's name reflects his own personal cultural references even if those references are limited to only a portion of the population.

The new logo is supposed to replace every other visual symbol, not just in government but across the province. In several interviews on Tuesday, the Premier mentioned wanting to seeing the logo on tourism materials, private-sector advertising and letterhead and even replacing the flag, pitcher plant and Newfoundland dogs on everything, one presumes, from lapel pins to tattoos.

In the same way Williams the typical politician is aiming at dominating the political landscape, he wants his logo to supplant every existing image.

The logo and the way it has been presented epitomizes Danny Williams and his political messages.

Where's the beef?

Ultimately, the weakness of the logo project is rooted in Williams himself.

All the qualities he tried to attribute to the new logo simply aren't present.

Leaving aside the insulting notion of likening the people of the province to vegetation, Williams has selected a plant which is actually not unique to Newfoundland and Labrador. It is found from Florida to Labrador and as far west as Iowa.

The pitcher plant is also an inappropriate symbol if someone wanted to portray a prosperous people who thrive based on ingenuity and creativity. The pitcher plant draws nourishment from the bogs in which it lives but it supplements its meagre root system by luring in unsuspecting insects and digesting the carcasses of the unfortunate flies and mites that drop into its water-filled cups. The pitcher plant is a predator, but it is a lazy one, dependent for its survival on the generosity of Providence, or more accurately, on the misfortune of those who fall into its grip.

Hardly an inviting, positive image, considering the negative reputation of the province across Canada as a place where people are forever dependent on federal handouts or among some Canadians who feel that we were rescued from poverty by Confederation.

Williams himself reinforced the inherently negative image of the pitcher plant - even as he tried to make it positive - when he told reporters that the plant "grows in a natural environment where no plant should ever grow". Newfoundland and Labrador is not a barren wasteland - "where no plant should grow" - but rather a place rich in resources and in genuinely resourceful people, people who take responsibility for themselves. People who are open, generous and inviting and who are prepared to work with anyone fairly for mutual benefit.

Aside from the limited cultural appeal of the logo within the province, Williams' new campaign to "sell" the logo to the people of the province is using an animated television spot that in itself is colourful and evocative. However, the music accompanying takes positive lyrics and demolishes whatever positive sentiment they contain in a mournful, gratingly high-pitched a cappella voice that while again Celtic in style takes on a banshee-like wailing quality when heard for the umpteenth time in the initial heavy media buy.

It's thin, plaintive sound is the opposite of strength and optimism, although it does fit very well with the negative image of the hard-done-by Newfoundland and Labrador victims Williams might contend he has been sent to save.

In the broadest sense, though, Williams logo initiative will fall well short of the claims that it will generate or at least support new tourism traffic and business investment. No logo does that. What undermines Williams new brand, as he would put it, is the brand Williams has already established for his administration and the province as a whole. As Bond Papers has noted before, the experience of investors dealing with Danny Williams is not good.

What will ultimately undermine Danny Williams' efforts to use a new "brand", to use his language, to fulfill his economic development miracle - again to use his stated goal - is the same core issue that Burger King once used to boost its own market share at the expense of its then-rival McDonald's. They'll look at his brand, not his logo. They'll look at Williams' reputation, not his image.

Prospective investors - like all consumers - will look at Williams' shiny logo and ask a simple question:

Where's the beef?

Danny's Plants

Elizabeth Driscoll: I keep seeing these people, all recognizing each other. Something is passing between them all, some secret. It's a conspiracy, I know it.

Matthew Bennel : There can't be a conspiracy!

Elizabeth Driscoll: Matthew, I'm telling you something is going on here.

Invasion of the Bodysnatchers, 1978

"There's no emotion. None. Just the pretense of it. The words, the gesture, the tone of voice, everything else is the same, but not the feeling."

Invasion of the Bodysnatchers, 1956

If nothing else, when Danny Williams today unveiled the provincial government's new logo (it isn't a brand for the province, people), he gave us the real name of those people he and his staff arrange to go on radio call-in shows singing hymns of praise to The Leader's gloriously miracle-delivering backside.

They were out in force this afternoon of course, and again this evening.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I give you:

The Pitcher Plants.

Just think about it:

- There is something slightly creepy about the whole planted caller thing, anyway, in an Invasion of the Body Snatchers kinda way. The way they all say exactly the same sorts of things in almost exactly the same way...almost as if they were being fed by the same invisible vines.

The way they seem to appear and disappear the same way Danny appears and disappears and they always show up in clusters to attack anyone who isn't of The Body.

No wait.

That was Landreu and Star Trek.

But ya know what I mean..

- More than a few people have noted the things sticking up out of the new logo look supernatural or science fiction- ish.

- For some bizarre reason, Danny thinks those stalky things rising up from the Danny-redefined "Newfoundland" somehow embody the people of Newfoundland and Labrador. See? "body"..."embody". Huh? Huh?

- Danny has already said, our job, as Newfoundlanders and Labradorians is to fall in line behind him and back him up on whatever he says. That reduces us to the status of vegetation.

By, if ya think about it, it all starts to make sense. We are all just Danny's Plants.

After all, how else can you explain spending a million dollars on something as uncreative as the new "brand"?

_____________________________

Addendum: The price of the project was actually more like $1.1 million, at least. Danny neglected to mention - for some reason - the "branding" contract handed to Target in late 2004 to do opinion research on images of the province.

Without going to tender.

Wonder what other work he forgot to tell us about?

SO what will the cost-effective project actually cost?

Sometimes, it is just amazing how crucial pieces of information can be deliberately omitted from a significant announcement and no one seems to notice.

Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro announced on Monday it would be awarding a contract to construct a wind generator site on the Burin Peninsula to a consortium led by an Italian firm experienced in wind generation of electricity.

Hydro Corporation chief executive officer Ed Martin described the project this way in a news release:

"NeWind submitted a comprehensive, cost-effective proposal for wind power...".

So how much will it cost?

Search in vain for any indication of the project cost. That's because Martin doesn't know. One of the things he admitted at the news conference announcing this project is that he now has to sit down and negotiate a 20 year-term power purchase agreement with the project proponents.

To paraphrase Martin's announcement then, it looks like this:

"We are building this amazing electricity generator that is cost-effective. We have absolutely no idea how much it will cost but we can tell you it is cost-effective."

Sounds like the Lower Churchill.

Without a business plan, or even a preliminary cost-benefit analysis, Martin and his real boss, Premier Danny Williams, committed the province to a project that if completed will double the province's debt. Plus they committed to the project in a way that made it extremely difficult to proceed successfully.

How difficult?

In a scrum last week, Danny Williams admitted that if he can't get a perfect deal, there will be no project.

Yeah.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiight, as Dr. Evil would say.

So there is a commitment to a project that will not appear at all if it is not perfect and, in the windy power project, there is a commitment to a cost-effective project yet the guy making the announcement has no ideas what the costs will be.

Incidentally, no one seems to have noticed that this project is not the result of some sort of magical post 2003 process. Yeah sure, Newind answered a proposal calll that Ed and his boss issued and they will be issuing more calls.

But NeWind is building off its experience in a project begun in 2001.

That project size? Five to 25 megawatts as a demonstration project.

Brand launched tomorrow; Bond already told you

The worst kept secret in town was confirmed today:

Danny Williams will be launching the new provincial brand at a news conference tomorrow.

Bond Papers told you about it a week ago. We also discussed the whole issue of "branding" the province back in march.

For the past week, hundreds of people have been receiving cryptic letters inviting them to a splendiferous, monumentalous phatasmagorical event in the province's history.

But they wouldn't say what it was for people who might have other things to do that day.

People on school boards wondered if it was an education announcement. People on hospital boards wondered if it was about health care.

Members of parliament wondered why Danny wanted them in St. John's rather than in Ottawa - where they belong - representing their constituents.

But the crafty crowd in the Department of Business just gave every inquiry the business. The jazz. The run-around. The waste of time.

Like the brand.

If the print ads and television spots already running are anything to go by, we can say three things up front:

1. The name of the province is now being presented in Danny-blue. Now there's a non-partisan rebranding if we never saw that old chestnut before.

2. The brand messaging is all focused inward, rather than outward. In itself that is nothing short of bizarre.

3. Someone made a heckuva lot of dough for a lick of blue paint and a bunch of hoary lines that sound more like the start of the Danny-brand's next election campaign rather than an effort to re-focus the province.

Oh yeah and after three years effort, tomorrow's launch represents the only accomplishment of the Business department to date.

Harper wants equity stake in Lower Churchill

According to the Globe and Mail, the federal government is considering an equity involvement in the Mackenzie Valley pipeline but has ruled out direct subsidies and loan guarantees as a way of helping the costly venture along.

For its part, Imperial Oil is just saying a polite "no" to equity stakes.

Meanwhile, Imperial is having trouble getting the permits needed to build the project. The problem is not with the company but with the federal government's inability to make appointments to four boards that must oversee the permits.

The permits are just one issue affecting go-ahead with the natural gas pipeline that is estimated to cost $7.5 billion to construct.

But here are a couple of observations on this issue and how it relates to Newfoundland and Labrador:

1. No one else wants to be President of Parador... except Danny Williams.

Some people compare Danny Williams to Hugo Chavez. I say the comparison is more like Danny Williams and Adolphe Simms, except Williams is not an actor playing the role.

Too bad.

Then maybe he could take some advice.

But I digress.

The equity stake discussed in the Mackenzie Valley pipeline stories linked above is being considered purely as a means of providing financial support to the project. Williams has just loaded the whole concept with so much emotional baggage he has actually managed to sink Hebron for years and may well have further discouraged any further development offshore, let alone exploration.

2. Regulatory Boards are important. Note that this project is being held up because the government involved can't sort out its appointments to the regulatory boards involved.

The board regulating the local offshore did quite well despite being set back in its timelines as the Premier demonstrated not only his political impotence but also - apparently - a doubtful ability to read and comprehend the law through the Andy Wells fiasco.

Maybe Jim Bennett could have asked Danny for advice on how to handle having as Supreme Court justice toss your arguments out the window as so much codswallop.

Anyway...

Regulatory boards are a key part of the system. The feds need to get that boards issue sorted if they want the Mac pipeline to proceed. Around here, things might have gone much more smoothly if Danny Williams had let the original selection process proceed, rather than try to put in the fix on Hebron using Andy Wells.

3. Kiss the Lower Churchill goodbye too... unless.

The federal government - the current one - has no interest in provided loan guarantees to megaprojects let alone megalomaniacs trying to run megaprojects.

Stephen Harper has been perfectly consistent on this point.

Just recall what Harper actually said last winter, instead of what Danny Williams told you Harper said.

Harper actually said he was prepared to support the Lower Churchill in the same way the feds supported Hibernia. This is how he put in the formal reply to Williams' wish list during the last election. Since Danny places so much stock in the written word - when it is convenient - then here are the words, as written by Harper:

A Conservative government would welcome discussions on this initiative and would hope that the potential exists for it to proceed in the spirit of past successes such as the Hibernia project.

So here it is: On its own, Newfoundland and Labrador does not have the financial ability to float the loans needed to construct a $9.0 billion megaproject.

It needs partners.

The only way the feds will help is in the form of an equity position.

Meanwhile, Hydro Quebec is moving ahead with its own megaprojects that will likely start construction and achieve first power well before the Lower Churchill, even under the most optimistic situation. They stand a good chance of getting capital and the markets that would otherwise go to Lower Churchill simply because the provincial government here miscalculated yet again on a big economic project.

So the issue for Danny Williams comes down to this: is he prepared to let Stephen Harper acquire an equity position in the Lower Churchill project that would let Williams build the project at all?

Is he prepared to treat the Government of Canada just like Altius, for example, which is seeking an equity stake as well?

The one thing that doesn't seem to be in question:

There'll be no federal loan guarantees for the Lower Churchill, at least not under a Harper government. And without the federal government's deep pockets, there won't be a Danny Williams monument at Muskrat Falls and Gull Island.

Soviet-Afghan war film "9 rota" is Russia's nominee for 2006 Academy awards

Russia's national film committee has reportedly selected 9 rota (Ninth Company) as the Russian entry in the 2006 Academy Awards in the best foreign film category.

9 rota is based on the story of a company of the 345th Guards Airborne Battalion that held an outpost along the road to Khost during 1988's Operation Magistral, the last major Soviet operation before the withdrawal in 1989. The desantniki held the outpost despite assaults by mujaheddin and - allegedly - Pakistani troops until a road-bound column arrived. [Left, in a scene from the movie.]

Director Feodor Bondarchuk follows a group of typical army draftees through basic training and into the Afghan hills during the latter days of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The film vividly portrays the harsh training and racial tensions within the Soviet army. Bondarchuk (right) stars in the movie as Hohol, a platoon leader in the company.

When released last year 9 rota quickly became the largest grossing film in Russian cinema history. The film was shot in Ukraine which co-operated by supplying the film with locations, props, equipment and soldiers. Some sequences were filmed in Uzbekistan.

The action sequences in the film are real with little or no computer generated explosions. In the still (left), for example, a BRDM light armoured vehicle of the relief column is destroyed by mujaheddin. The round object in mid-air is the turret of the actual vehicle, blown up by the special effects crew.

9 rota is available on DVD, in widescreen, Russian with English subtitles. According to some sources the DVD is not region-specific, meaning it can be played on any DVD player. Be careful, however. The listing on amazon.com states the DVD is not region-specific yet then notes it is in PAL format.

North American video tape and DVD is formatted in NTSC, not PAL. Following is an excerpt from the final scene.