Fact Checker: What Lorne and Danny want

A number of news media have made a fundamental mistake in describing what Lorne Calvert and Danny Williams are concerned about.

Equalization is complex subject. It's tedious and it is hard to express simply.

But the Calvert/Williams position is actually easy to understand and describe.

For the purposes of illustration, let's use the cbc.ca story found on the /nl site. Overall, it's a pretty good summary of yesterday's news from Saskatchewan.

Part way through there's this sentence:

One of their concerns is that a new equalization formula would factor non-renewable resources into the calculations.

That's not accurate.

Calvert and Williams are concerned the Prime Minister will not keep his election promise to exclude 100% of non-renewable resource revenues from Equalization.

What cbc.ca and others are running makes you think the revenues are out now and Harper is going to put them all in. He doesn't have to: they already are included 100%. The O'Brien panel recommends including half of all resource revenues.

See the difference?

It's a pretty big one, actually.

And for Equalization, it's remarkably simply to state.

Howard Hunt dies

Everette Howard Hunt, former secret agent, author, alleged inspiration for Tom Cruise's character in Mission: Impossible and one of the co-conspirators in the 1972 Watergate break-in died yesterday, aged 88.

For more background on Watergate, here's a link to the Washington Post site. The paper compiled its coverage - including the original pieces by Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward - and updated some stories.

The Watergate affair remains a fascinating piece of American history and an amazing piece of journalism that continues to teach lessons today. All Woodward and Bernstein did was never accept the official position, like say "We just need more information".

Instead, they just asked simple questions: who knew what, when did they know and what did they do once they knew?

It is amazing what you can uncover when you just ask simple, logical questions.

Out of that unfolded what would otherwise have remained reported - according to the official version - as a simple burglary.

Williams' Western Wanderings

1. "Danny Williams: At war with himself". Bond Papers comment on Tuesday's speech.

2. "Premiers stand united", the Star Phoenix coverage, from Saskatoon. Most laughable of a number of laughable comments by Williams: that the O'Brien panel based its finding on "arbitrary" principles and that it was "flawed". Whenever Williams is faced with something he disagrees with, it is, by definition flawed. He never gives reasons he just makes the statement. Of course, in the Danny-centric mind, it doesn't require further explanation since that's the reason it's flawed: because he disagrees with it and he said so.

3. "Maritime premiers go begging in Alberta". The Calgary Sun headline on a Canadian Press story. The story is short but the last line tells it all: a guy from New Brunswick reminds his Premier that he will find his way back to New Brunswick when the wages at home are as good as in Alberta.

Danny Williams: At war with himself

In Saskatoon today, Newfoundland and Labrador premier Danny Williams [Left: in February 2005] insisted that the prime Minister must live up to his campaign promise and exclude non-renewable resource revenues from the Equalization formula.

In October 2006, Williams told provincial Progressive Conservatives he had supported Harper during the federal election but didn't quite trust him.

In his letter to Harper during last year's election campaign, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams advocated including all resource revenues (renewable and non-renewable) in the Equalization formula. He wrote to Harper that this was the policy of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

In the 2004 election campaign, Williams said the Harper plan was not as good as the one he had just negotiated with then-Prime Minister Paul Martin to provide additional Equalization-type payments to the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial government.

Danny Williams is arguing against himself.

He is also undermining his own credibility with national audiences.

Williams knows that his current position - no non-renewable resource revenues - does not treat all provinces equally under Equalization. Provinces that have huge incomes from oil, gas and mining get to hide billions of income the federal top-up program. That gives them considerably more federal transfers than provinces that are less reliant on non-renewables.

Yet, in Saskatoon, Williams told a university audience:

"I think we all know why he might do that. We are facing a federal election and...in the end, equality among provinces takes a back seat to the electoral urgency of currying favour with the majority."

Not only does Williams make a false claim about equality, he pits one province against another as deliberate effort to raise political ire in English-speaking Canada with Quebec. It's not the first time he has criticised Quebec, either explicitly or - as in this case - implicitly.

Williams also knows that the expert panel that reported last year found that both positions he has advocated do not treat provinces equally or fairly. The O'Brien panel found that the all-in approach disadvantages provinces with non-renewable resources. The approach Williams now favours doesn't either.

What O'Brien and his expert panelists proposed instead was including half of all resources revenues. According to O'Brien, the panel's approach would represent as fair a compromise between the two extreme positions - both advocated by Danny Williams.

And obviously by rejecting the O'Brien panel, Williams is effectively arguing against a compromise of his own positions.

Beyond that, however, Williams takes an approach - pitting province against province - he criticizes others for supposedly taking:

"But don't pit provinces against each other, don't take from one to give to another and use it against them, don't break firm written commitments - honour them."

Sadly, it's not the first time he's done that either. In October, Williams launched his re-election campaign by attacking the federal government, just as he today accuses the federal government of putting more money into a single province as a way of currying favour for the Conservatives.

In the Equalization fight, however, Williams stands no chance of winning. He is isolated among Premiers, with only the ineffectual premier of Saskatchewan on his side. The position Williams now defends is demonstrably as unfair to some provinces as the one he advocated only last year.

Incredible as it may seem, Danny Williams is at war with himself.

In such a situation, he cannot help but lose and that, is proof of the wisdom in John Crosbie's critique of Williams' entire approach.

Kent will announce intentions after Hodder

Mount Pearl Mayor Steve Kent told VOCM news Tuesday evening that he has not ruled out running for Harvey Hodder's seat but he hasn't ruled it in either.

Kent said he will announce his intentions once Hodder announces what he will do.

And hey, people, while we labelled it as scuttlebutt, Kent's comments to VOCM suggest that he will be looking to replace Harv wearing the same colours.

Scuttlebutt: Steve Kent to run for Tories in Waterford Valley

If the Mount Pearl rumour mill is right, Mount Pearl Mayor Steve Kent, recently seen on NTV's make-over show, will make himself over from a Liberal to a Danny Williams Tory for the next provincial election.

Kent will reportedly seek the Tory nod in Waterford Valley to replace Harvey Hodder, once Hodder announces he will be retiring from politics.

Kent's name was most recently floated as a possible Liberal candidate in the federal riding of St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Kent was courted by then Premier Brian Tobin to run in a federal by-election in the late 1990s and before that had been courted by the Reform/Alliance as a possible candidate.

Killing them softly

While the next general election is set for October 2007, Danny Williams started asking his caucus last fall to make a decision on whether or not they would be running next time around.

According to some reports, Williams wanted to get new members in well before the election ostensibly so they could have some experience before the big game coming in the fall.

Every time he's been asked about a spring election by reporters, Williams made up some cock and bull story - which everyone swallowed - about having to call the House back to change the legislation. Sometimes he used another tale - again with bells on it - about not want to change everyone's expectation of a fall election and therefore catching the opposition parties short.

Truth is, Williams wasn't planning on having a snap election.

Nope.

The Premier understood its actually far more useful to wear the enemy down before the big contest. Rather than let them get ready for an election at a predicted time, better to use every power he has to have the opposition tied up with candidate selections, fund-raising and all the other things that go with elections for the better part of a year.

If the plan holds, both the Liberals and the New Democrats will be so shagged out by the fall, Danny will have an easy time no matter what.

And in the meantime, he can tell as many nosepullers as he feels like, knowing no one will challenge his story of the moment.

Danny's ideal candidate

How many hockey players will seek the Tory nomination in districts around the province this year?

Bond Papers wonders if Danny will be making approaches to the guy who would be his ideal candidate: Big Bobby Clobber. [ram file]

His ideas on negotiating would fit right in with current government policy.

Monday Morning Quickies

1. Equalization: the view from Hill Times. Nothing Earth-shaking, but the view from north of the Queensway.

2. The Sun apparently doesn't shine on Harper's plan. Saying the Harper proposal would soak places like Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador merely shows that the Sun chain can't read English. It's odd for a Conservative newspaper chain to support hand-outs for everyone.

Local Tory claims need closer scrutiny, too

Imagine the shock there'd be at finding a column like this one from the Halifax Daily News in a Newfoundland and Labrador newspaper.

Word came this week that Newfoundland and Labrador's Equalization entitlement would be down this year by $150 million or so.

Danny pronounced the budget would have to be redone. Local media dutifully reported each of the Premier's utterances.

Now the reason for the cut is the same here as in Nova Scotia. Don't expect any local media to make a point of correcting Danny in public or private on this one:

The short answer is, Nova Scotia's per-capita fiscal capacity went up. That is, our ability to pay our own way has grown, so we need less from the national welfare system.

In Danny-stan, we were treated to claims like this one:

"On a per-capita basis, there's nobody, no other province that takes a hit like we take," said Williams.

The Tory premier said it would mean recalculating his province's budget.

Despite Williams' best efforts, the oil sector is producing windfalls for his treasury. It will keep doing so for a few more years before - as Danny's former finance minister knew - we take a tumble. Of course, Danny won't be around when the tumble comes, but I digress.

So Newfoundland and Labrador's entitlement to hand-outs is going down for the same reason Nova Scotians are getting less.

No plots. No shafting.

No greater a drop than it ought to be given the phenomenal growth in the economy.

Just fair treatment and, at the root of it, something we should be proud of: we need less from the national welfare system.

Many of Williams' claims need closer scrutiny.

Often, what Danny says simply isn't true. It's is factually incorrect. Wrong, even.

Other times, there is an upside he won't discuss but the rest of us might find important.

Sometimes there's a downside.

And sometimes - a lot of the time - people would prefer to know that than to get, say mindlessly backing The Leader on his latest jihad or writing an editorial that sounds so saccharine that his Mom - or talk radio's Tony or Minnie - could have written it:

"Oh my gracious, it's amazing our wonderful Danny has been able to do all the marvelous stuff he's done for the good of all us poor people, what wit' all that miserable crowd he got to work with. Now they are leaving him and he got to clean up d'ere messes. Danny, our saviour."

We paraphrase, but capture, the essence of the piece.

Jim Meek's take on Danny and Oil

Call Danny David?

Let's rename Jim Meek "Polly Anna".

The People's Paper for Leader Worship

Bad enough that the editor of a weekly paper in the province once a week pens a mash-note to Danny based on nothing other than his school boy hero-crush on The Leader.

They used to be the "But Danny, I adore you, why do you hate me, why won't you speak to me?" love-rent teenager kinda drivel. Lately - now that Danny will advertise in the paper and grant interviews - it's back to the public orations in honour of The Leader Who Gloriously Slayed the Mighty Ottawa Beast and Who Will Now Smite the Oil Bastards And Anyone Else Who Would Dare Oppress His Loyal Supplicants.

It's the sort of stuff you used to see pumped out by second-rate lute pickers. They'd chase after some knight, knocking off ditties to tell the local peasants and pissants how splendiferous their local demigod supposedly was. They did it all in hopes the leige lord might deign to give the lowly minstrels a meal, a mug of warm beer and a place sleep out of the elements.

Expect the upstart weekly to be up and starting a province-wide collection to build a gold statute to The Leader in front of their offices on Water Street. Pensioners and little children can send in their nickels. The rest can cough up big for the monument.

The only potential design problem will be to see who goes up The Leader's backside, and how far. Competition for the spot is at a state not seen even in Joe Smallwood's day. Heck some are even heading back out into the parking lot so they can get a good run at embedding themselves.

Perhaps they'll the potentate route and just design the statute with an oversized pair of cheeks, set at eye level. All the more area for osculating.

Or maybe like worshippers at some shrine in wherever-a-stan, the serfs can dutifully kiss the cheek as they go about their daily work. There you stroke the lingham for blessing. Here you'd buss the tukus to demonstrate loyalty and devotion.

All that is bad enough, but now the Telegram is starting in on the public fellation, as well.

Credit where credit is due. A needle poke when appropriate as well.

But puhleese: "It’s a tribute to Williams that his Conservatives are still doing so well in this province — and that they’ve managed to stick, for the most part, to their election agenda in the process."

No serving politician deserves that kind of derriere-smooch, especially since it simply isn't true.

The Telly has been doing such a fine job of getting its editorial chops back. This paean to the prem is a marked setback.

Did the boys in layout print Bill Rowe's column in the wrong spot?

Is this another editorial ordered up from the corner office?

It just makes you shrug in despair of thoughtful commentary in what once upon a time used to be a bastion of contrariness.

Will Danny kill Husky's expansion too?

When Premier Danny Williams killed plans to develop a 300 million barrel oil field within the Hibernia project, some wondered what might become of Husky Energy's plans to bring an additional 25 million barrels on stream from its White Rose field.

The development plan amendment containing the new project could be taken by some - like St. John's Mayor Andy Wells and Premier Danny Williams - as an excuse to force Husky and Petro-Canada to negotiate new local benefits.

Wells has long been a critic of floating production systems, favouring instead the short-term jobs that would come from expensive gravity-based concrete platforms. So-called GBS platforms would be unnecessary to develop fields like Terra Nova and White Rose on a successful commercial basis, but were an integral part of the make-work approach some within the Peckford administration took to oil and gas development 25 years ago.

An excellent backgrounder can be found at The Telegram, courtesy of Moira Baird.

Public consultation documents on the White Rose development plan amendment can be found at the offshore regulatory board's website.

Williams' actions brand Canada badly?

Deborah Yedlin's column in the Globe and Mail business section Friday contain some observations on Danny Williams' rejection of a 300 million barrel oil project off the province's coast.

Some of the comments, especially the one about Loyola Sullivan, will be familiar to Bond readers.

Among other comments though there are ones like this:

Energy companies around the world -- particularly those that are publicly traded and not national oil companies -- are challenged to invest capital and replace current production. And if they can do it in politically stable countries where there is a rule of law that can be relied on, so much the better. That's why they come to Canada.

Because of what's at stake, they are unlikely to hold back on providing as much information as possible to decision makers in order to win the necessary approvals. The folks running The Rock don't seem to get it. Instead they persist in playing hardball.

or this:

With all this as backdrop, is it such a coincidence that the government's well-respected finance minister resigned some two weeks ago? The Newfoundland government now has to live with the likelihood that the companies that have been turned down twice are going to have a tough time giving Newfoundland a thumbs-up if others in the business ask whether it's a province that is friendly to investors.

Many will reject Yedlin's comments out of hand, especially those who find it difficult to question Williams at all on anything. A few out there will see the larger implications of this week's gambit by the man who thinks it immensely flattering to be compared to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

Pull the other one, Kathy.

Fresh from killing a multi-million barrel oil project worth billions to the provincial treasury, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale today applauded her cabinet colleague the environment minister for approving a planned liquid natural gas terminal despite missing information.

The proponents of the project can take all the time they need to submit an employment equity plan, a risk assessment study (!!), and an environmental protection plan before starting construction.

Surely an environment minister doing a due diligence piece (to use Dunderdale's favourite bit of bureaucratese) would want to be assured there were no environmental risks associated with such a massive project before giving it the green light?

And double surely, the same duly diligent minister would want to see the environmental protection plan before telling the proponents their project was released from environmental review?

Goudie checks out

Kathy Goudie, one of two Conservative members of the House of Assembly accused of double-billing for expenses has quit politics, effective immediately.

The Premier wasted no time in calling the by-election for February 12. News of one followed hot on the heels of the other.

Guess the rumours are true about him wanting her to go and go quickly.

Cabinet shuffle at 11:00 AM

Let's see if Jerome Kennedy is appointed.

Bond Papers first raised the idea on December 29.

Jerome denied it, but then your humble e-scribbler clarified the point.

Update [1230 hrs]:

No Jerome.

A few people were moved around Shawn Skinner and Ross Wiseman were added to cabinet as, respectively the minister of human resources and health minister. Tom Osborne moved from Health to Justice, while Tom Rideout [right:The province's new chief prosecutor] takes on the job of Attorney General in addition to his others jobs.

Paul Shelley announced his retirement from politics when the legislature is next dissolved for an election. In the way this sort of retirement would normally be handled, he was simply sent to the back benches, no harm, no foul. Note the difference between Shelley and Loyola Sullivan despite the apparent similarity in their situations and stories.

On the face of it, this is a minor shuffle to address the consequences of Sullivan's resignation. It certainly doesn't look like the sort of re-organization one might expect in advance of an election.

That shuffle - if it comes at all - will come after the budget, most likely.

Williams to Ottawa: More handouts please

There's something fundamentally wrong about any politician who is proud of walking away from billions in economic development (Hebron), applauds an incompetent minister who neglected to act on a major economic opportunity until after a decision was made and then cancelled the project altogether, but who focuses instead on getting more hand-outs from Ottawa.

Danny Williams is the first premier in Newfoundland and Labrador history who preferred increasing the provincial government's dependence on Ottawa in lieu of economic self-reliance.

Danny Williams' sole victory to date - by his own calculation - was in securing a $2.0 billion hand-out from Paul Martin.

Bond Papers discussed this already, in a post titled "Haec tibi dona fero". For those who don't know, the phrase is the motto taken from the old badge of Newfoundland. Before someone discovered the provincial government had right to the current coat of arms (originally granted in the 1620s), the official flag of Newfoundland was a red ensign with the Badge in the fly.

Translated, it means: "We bring you these gifts."

The cost of blunder and folly

For the first time in history, the provincial government has overturned a fundamental decision of the province's offshore regulatory board.

That's because for the first time in history, the provincial government failed to discuss important issues with oil companies before a project went to the board for decision.

Since the 1980s, every single provincial government - Progressive Conservative and Liberal alike - has negotiated with the oil companies on royalties and benefits. If there were questions or concerns they were raised at the outset and resolved.

Except, that is, in the recent case of Hibernia South.

And Newfoundlanders and Labradorians should wonder why.

In truth, there's no logical reason for it.

The provincial government was aware at least a year ago that the Hibernia partners were planning to develop the 300 million barrels in the southern extension of the massive Hibernia field. In her letter to the offshore board rejecting their decision, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale acknowledged that government knew a project was under consideration. She saw the expressions of interest calls for work related to the project. Officials in her department knew what everyone else in the oil industry locally knew.

Yet at no point until December 2006 - fully six months after public consultations closed on the development application - did Dunderdale go looking for information.

The result is that the Hibernia South project is shelved with no indication when it might come back for re-consideration. Provincial officials will meet with Hibernia representatives before the end of January. Maybe the provincial government can resolve its concerns.

Most likely it won't. Premier Danny Williams long ago declared his interest in seeing Hibernia South treated as a new project, separate from Hibernia. He wanted a new royalty and benefits deal, a new production platform and whatever else could be squeezed out of it.

Williams' negotiating track record is abysmal, at least when it comes to closing a deal. He's been all fight and no win, as one wag put it. Part of the problem is that he seems unwilling or unable to define his objectives. It's hard to know when you reach a goal if you don't know what the goal is. In interviews over the past two days both Williams and his natural resources minister haven't been able to give any indication of what their objectives are beyond vague platitudes.

Both Williams and Dunderdale did dangle the carrot of more work and jobs in front of the president of the offshore industry association and in front of the general public. Some fell for it, out of pollyannaish optimism as much as anything else.

But many fell for the simple palaver - experienced reporters included - because of what the y don't know and Premier is loathe to discuss: the potential cost of his gamble on a new production platform, even if the companies were willing to go along with his plans.

The cost would be - inevitably - reduced royalties for the provincial treasury. As with every project offshore, the companies would expect and would likely receive agreement that the province's royalties would be about 5% until the costs of development were recovered. In a project like Terra Nova, low costs and high oil prices allowed that project to pay off early. As a result, the provincial government receives 30% of the price of every barrel pumped.

On Hibernia, that same target is within sight. By 2011 - if current projections hold - the province will get those higher royalties. Those higher royalties will apply to at least half of the recoverable reserves, including Hibernia South, which the Premier rightly noted is now estimated to hold about 1.9 million barrels of proven, probable and possible reserves. Hibernia - with more oil than the other producing fields combined - could pump more cash into the province treasury after 2011 than anyone ever imagined.

Treat Hibernia South as some sort of new project - even by negotiating a new set of royalties and benefits in the context of the original development agreement - and that higher royalty target will likely slide back significantly. Someone will have to pay for the extras demanded solely by a politician's whims and that someone will be taxpayers.

Beyond that, though, the little game of chicken the Premier is playing sends a very bad message to the oil industry globally and to businesses generally. What they see is a place where the costs of doing business are completely undefined. In a world where there is far more oil to discover and develop than there is capital to develop it, competition is high. Uncertainty discourages investment. In Danny Williams' case, the potential costs can't even be guessed at. His demands are not only a constantly shifting target, the outermost edges of the target screen itself can't even be seen. Money doesn't get spent in places like that.

Now, on top of that, for companies looking to develop existing fields, there is the added likelihood that at the very end of the already long regulatory process, the provincial government will suddenly reset the clock to zero and start the whole thing over again.

The Premier's actions have costs that can be readily seen. In the short- and medium- term , the oil industry isn't investing locally, certainly not at the levels we'd expected. House prices are slumping and over the next year and more, the economy in St. John's will contract. Even locally-owned supply and service companies have scaled back their local investments since they have no idea when a new project might actually be approved. Optimism a year ago is replaced with caution and skepticism today.

In the medium to long term, there are other costs. Provincial government forecasts show that without Hebron and more production at Hibernia, oil revenues will drop suddenly before climbing back up. But after that, there's a pretty rapid drop-off, as Wade Locke's estimate [left] shows.

The longer Hebron sits in the ground, the long Hibernia South remains undeveloped, the more money the provincial treasury loses. Sometimes you don't need to make a deal to make a giveaway.

Interestingly enough, that's what Loyola Sullivan talked about just before his Christmas resignation. Sullivan told vocm.com that it is very important for the province to see orderly development of its offshore industry. He said there will be three years of good revenues but after that, the money drops off.

Sullivan's right.

Too bad his wise words were drowned out by his resignation the same day those comments were published. Too bad that Sullivan's colleagues didn't heed his good advice.

Instead, we had an unconscionable, let alone unfathomable failure by a government that can ill afford political mistakes in a province that - in a few short years - will be hard pressed to pay the bills for blunder and folly in 2006 and early 2007.

Lab West mine deal: Did Danny screw the chances?

Consolidated Thompson announced on Tuesday that its exclusivity agreement with Wabush Mines had expired and no agreement had been reached on the sale of Wabush Mines.

CT is developing a mine in Quebec, close to the Labrador border and reportedly had been examining a possible consolidation of the two operations.

CT's announcement on Tuesday was a surprise to most people in Labrador West. The company said that, among other things, unexpected - and unspecified - liabilities had nixed the possibility of the deal. CT will now proceed with its development at Bloom Lake in Quebec.

In a teleconference Wednesday with investors and news media, board chairman Brian Tobin wouldn't be any more specific about liabilities issue or other reasons why CT had abandoned its plans for Wabush Mines.

Well here's a theory.

Unexpected liabilities = unforeseen costs.

Unforeseen costs? Maybe not unforeseen so much as "we couldn't cut a deal."

Consider that Wabush Mines and Iron Ore Company of Canada are co-owners, along with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro of a little outfit called Twin Falls Hydroelectric Corporation. The Twin Falls generating station was built in the 1950s to meet the power needs of the two companys operations in Labrador West.

Hydro's shares used to belong to BRINCO and were acquired along with other BRINCO assets in the 1970s. Anyway, IOC and Wabush Mines agreed to mothball the Twin Falls generating plant to ensure that it wouldn't interfere with the adjacent Upper Churchill development.

Part of the deal, struck after long and difficult negotiations, was that IOC - and presumably Wabush - would have access to a block of power at low prices from the Upper Churchill as a trade for shutting down Twin Falls. After all, had the companies continued to operate their own generating plants, they'd have electricity available for the cost of maintaining the plant.

Enter Danny Williams.

In early October, the fiesty Premier warned Iron Ore Company of Canada - owners of the other mine in Labrador West - that they could expect to pay commercial rates for electricity once the current agreement ended. Williams likened the IOC/Wabush Mines power purchase deal to the Hydro Quebec giveaway on the Upper Churchill presumably knowing full-well that his comparison and the truth were two completely different things.

Presumably the same thing applied to Wabush Mines. You can imagine the talk: Forget the low cost power, boys, sez Danny. No more give aways. Maximum benefits to the province or take a hike.

And since Williams had flatly rejected a power deal in public, there was no way he would back down.

About a month later, Consolidated Thompson signed the exclusivity agreement with Wabush Mines. It wouldn't be too much of a stretch for the company to have figured that Danny's old buddy Brian Tobin could cut a deal on power, former Prem to current Prem. But after a few months of wrangling, in which the current Prem was likely a little more dyspeptic than usual, they just couldn't get Danny to a fair deal, namely ensuring the company could expect low cost power to flow just as it would have if they'd told BRINCO to shove off back in the 1960s.

By January, CT decides to head across the border, focus on Bloom Lake and talk to a much friendlier government in Quebec. Jean Charest and his Hydro Quebec team would certainly be willing to supply low-cost power from their own existing operations or from their new projects, like the Romaine.

Now this is a little bit of creative speculation, and there's no way either Brian or Danny will ever say just exactly what did happen. But the story is plausible. If Danny added all sorts of demands for costs on top of his electricity pricing, he might just have priced the whole deal right off the table.

And Danny is good at talking good deals right out the door with his Bela Oxmyx impersonation.

Just ask the local companies who had planned on Hebron work.

or Hibernia South work.

or White Rose expansion work.

Oops.

That last one hasn't been killed yet.

Still, it does give you something to think about.

______________________

Update [19 Jan 07]:

Speculation is fun.

But with any large industrial project like a mine, there are always environmental liabilities and with mines in operation for any length of time there are big ones.

The Consolidated Thompson decision is most likely based on an overall assessment of the downstream implications of buying the existing Wabush Mines based on - as the company - said - the liabilities, both known and unknown or unexpected.

Discussions with the provincial government about electricity may never have taken place. We don't know and likely neither party would be able to discuss them if they did.

That said, CT will still have to look at issues about their Bloom Lake site such as how to get the ore to market once it's been mined. That may have some implications for Labrador West. Let's hope the provincial natural resources department doesn't let that one go sliding by until - as with Hibernia - they wait until a decision is made to go looking for information they should have sought long beforehand.

By-election date set

Voters in Kilbride, Ferryland and Port au Port will go to the polls February 8.

That just about clinches it that the province won't be seeing an early election this year.

Interestingly enough, Chief Justice Derek Green is due to release his report on the House of Assembly scandal on January 31. Will the Premier release it right away?

Predictable but still disheartening

With the stunning success of the Hebron shag-up under his belt, Danny Williams decided to shelve the Hibernia South development application.

The news was delivered by his shadow natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale.

More to follow.

Equalization: some thoughts and background

Since Equalization is back on the national agenda, it's useful to review what's been said before.

At the outset, let's make one thing clear: the position taken by Premier Danny Williams has been predictably devoid of many facts. In place of facts, we have seen hyperbole and other forms of exaggeration akin to what we saw in the previous offshore transfer discussions.

It's hard to have a sensible public discussion of such an important issue if the guy right at the top spends more time spinning both his wheels and the perspective on the issue.

Let's see if we can correct that with some facts and some contrary opinion:

1. Bond Papers summary of some points in the Expert Panel report. This focuses on a couple of the aspects related to Newfoundland and Labrador. Most importantly, though, the post contains links to the original Expert Panel report. Take the time to check that out. It's in plain English so most people should be able to grasp the issues, the analysis and the recommendations.

2. A comparison of Danny Williams' idea of including all resource revenues in entitlement calculations and the version proposed initially by Stephen Harper, backed by former finance minister Loyola Sullivan [left]. This is one of the most significant aspects of the entire discussion yet it is also one completely ignored by local news media.

3. War of the Pee. One of your humble e-scribbler's favourite titles, which plays on the title of classic treatise on guerrilla war as well as Premier Williams' apparent penchant for urinating on people's shoes. Big plus: links to a raft of other posts on Equalization. There's also a reference to the problem John Crosbie highlighted recently, although Crosbie discusses the problem with Danny's approach in a far more eloquent way than we did here at Bond Papers.

Hunter-gatherers support dismemberment

Since the fish union now backs breaking up Fishery Products International and selling off the bits and pieces to the highest bidders, there's nothing to stop the company from being dismantled.

The hypocrisy in Earle McCurdy's comments should be obvious; his union has had a hand in bringing about the chaos, controversy, disorder and poor results FPI has seen since the board of directors changes in 2001.

Of course, going back to May of 2006, McCurdy has been in favour of dismantling FPI.

NL productivity up; oil a major driver

A new Statistics Canada report on labour productivity shows Newfoundland and Labrador's productivity grew at twice the national rate between 1997 and 2005.

The story is covered by the Globe. As the Globe explains:

Labour productivity, measured as the amount of gross domestic product in constant dollars per hour worked, is considered an underpinning of a prosperous economy, which should bode well for Canada's most eastern province.

The Globe story opens with a quote from Jerry Byrne, president of D.F. Barnes, a company that has prospered in recent years in the offshore oil supply sector.

Since leading a 2002 management buyout of the 74-year-old company, Mr. Byrne has guided it to a 30-fold increase in annual revenue in just four years -- and he expects to hit a threshold of about 50 times 2002 revenue some time in the next year.

At the same time, the story also quotes Trevor Adey, president of high-tech firm Consilient. Adey notes that the gains from the oil sector haven't necessarily filtered down in a province where workers are still leaving in large numbers to find work elsewhere. Adey's right, of course. The oil and gas sector is such a capital intensive business that the apparent good news in the labour productivity numbers masks productivity shortcomings in other sectors of the economy.

That said, Byrne's success at D.F. Barnes is indeed remarkable. It has come about through some smart deal-making and a good measure of competence and ability. Local offshore companies have been known to compete successfully around the globe based on their experience in local offshore and Barnes is certainly one of the prime examples of successful local entrepreneurship.

Unfortunately, local companies have to look overseas for work these days. They had been planning on the Hebron project but that project has now been shelved indefinitely.

At the same time, though, D.F. Barnes has had its share of financial help from the provincial government.

In June, Byrne announced a major contract for launch and recovery systems for remotely-operated vehicle. The work is being done through a Barnes subsidiary, Orphan Industries.

In December, 2006 - six months after the launch and recovery system contract was announced - the provincial government provided Orphan with $970,000 "to expand the manufacturing facilities of Orphan Industries Limited to become the preferred supplier of Launch and Recovery Systems (LARS)."

Notice that the provincial government release doesn't mention D.F. Barnes once and - very unusually - doesn't include a quote from the company.

Nope.

It just has comments from Kevin O'Brien, the logo guy the business minister, and Kathy Dunderdale, the Premier's natural resources minister.

Harper moving on fiscal imbalance

Radio Canada is reporting that the plan will include half of natural resources in Equalization calculation. Newfoundland and Labrador premier Danny Williams wanted all resource revenues included.

Ottawa will also boost transfer for post-secondary education and infrastructure, according to Radio Canada. The federal Conservatives will reduce federal taxes, as well, thereby opening up room for provinces to increase their rates of taxation. The Conservatives will also introduce a bill in parliament to limit federal spending power. Each of these elements has been discussed for months.

This news comes in advance of a meeting of provincial premiers, scheduled for February 7 to discuss Equalization, among other things.

Quebec will receive $2.0 billion according to la presse.

Williams criticized on Hickey; story goes national

Canadian Press is running this story which includes criticism of Premier Danny Williams' decision to keep John Hickey in cabinet despite word today that the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary has launched a criminal investigation into allegations Hickey and another Progressive Conservative member of the House of Assembly double-billed the legislature for expenses.

The CP is running across the country.

Williams' decision flouts centuries of parliamentary tradition designed to preserve the integrity of government while avoiding tainting or appearing to taint the police investigation. The Canadian press story includes several recent examples of the principle followed by Canadian governments, until now in Newfoundland and Labrador.

In a related comment, Williams [right] this weekend called the speaker of the legislature the head of a division or department of government. Williams' faulty constitutional knowledge was displayed on NTV's Issues and Answers, a 30 minute interview show airing Sundays.

Chief electoral officer told by whom?

Provincial chief electoral officer Chuck Furey said today he's been advised other members of the House of Assembly will vacating their seats before the scheduled October general election.

Who told Furey?

Why would the CEO know this information under any circumstances?

According to vocm.com, Furey also said he did not know if the Premier would change electoral boundaries based on the recent boundary commission report. Maybe VOCM misquoted him because surely Furey knows - as a former member of the legislature and former cabinet minister - that such a decision is not made by the Premier, anyway.

Williams cabinet minister, MHA under CID probe

The Royal Newfoundland Constabulary confirmed today that allegations of double-billing against John Hickey and Kathy Goudie have been referred to the Criminal Investigation Division (CID).

Premier Danny Williams relieved Hickey of his cabinet responsibilities, but re-appointed him days later, characterising both Hickey and Goudie as victims of incompetent House of Assembly administration.

The allegations from the province's auditor general involve 58 incidents of double-billing expense claims.

UPDATE: Williams says nothing new in RNC announcement, Hickey will stay.

UPDATE: Telegram editorial criticizes Hickey decision.

Oil, gas news

1. Refineries planned for East Coast. Bond readers heard this already. They've also heard about the prospects the Irving refinery and gas plant planned for Saint John will make it harder for other refinery proposals, especially for green-field sites. Expansion at Come by Chance is not inherently as risky.

2. Natural gas drilling on downturn. Warmer weather and lower prices blamed.

3. Husky criticizes Alberta infrastructure, earns government rebuke.

4. Venezuela expands petro-influence in Central America. New refinery for Nicaragua; expansion of existing natural gas pipeline under discussion. (from platts.com)

5. Gulf of Mexico grows. Government and majors still wrangling over money but exploration set to expand in American backyard.

Devil in polling details for Williams

The Telegram obtained the most recent Corporate Research Associates (CRA) polling results (December 2006) and the numbers don't look good for government.

According to the Telegram, employment was the number one issue facing the province according to respondents. Concern about employment was highest outside the metro St. John's area.

And residents are becoming less enamoured of the Williams administration’s job-creation record, CRA found.

Only 33 per cent of respondents were completely (two per cent) or mostly (31 per cent) satisfied.

The majority — 62 per cent — were completely (18 per cent) or mostly (44 per cent) dissatisfied.

CRA reported that overall satisfaction levels remained high.

Second economist criticizes government money for Alcan

The article is in French, but you will get the point fairly quickly.

A package of incentives worth $337,000 per job, for a total value of $3.0 billion over 30 years (if my French holds up.

The deal to support Alcan's operations in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean includes a guaranteed price on 225 megawatts of power, to be supplied by projects such as the one begun last week on the Rupert river.

Seven pillars

1. Dick Cheney's 1999 speech to the Institute of Petroleum. Some look on this for portents of Bush II policy in the Middle East. Others will see an overview of the challenges in the petroleum industry globally. This copy of the speech is on a site discussing the concept of peak oil. Poke around and you'll find other articles worthy of your time.

2. The challenge of deepwater drilling. From South Africa comes this Reuters piece on exploration and production in the Gulf of Mexico.

3. Profit drops expected for oil industry. From the International Herald Tribune, a look at the impact falling oil prices may have on the companies that take the risks of drilling in the expensive new frontiers.

This is one of the reasons why some analysts considered the Hebron failure such a massive giveaway; it's been a painful lesson for those who misuse Newfoundland and Labrador history by talking about some economic development projects as "giveaways". Sometimes a loss comes from failing to reach an agreement at an opportune time.

It will be much harder to strike a lucrative deal when oil prices are relatively low or appear to be low.

4. Local fall-out from Hebron failure? Rutter posts a drop in revenue and sheds its interest in DORIS.

5. At least no one dies from local talk radio. [Via Drudge]

6. Chavez takes them out, well, sort of.

7. ConocoPhillips holds S& P rating, but the company is buying back about US$1.0 billion of its own stock in the wake of disappointing earnings in the last quarter of 2006. Conoco's other problems - coupled with the complete uncertainty of dealing with the Williams administration - may lead it away from its earlier interest in Grand Banks gas fields. Husky has also shelved its plans for White Rose gas pending release of the province's energy plan and natural gas royalty regime, already a decade in development.

For a reminder of previous comment on the way oil companies look at the world, check this critique of an old Telegram editorial. Oil companies will take risks, but evidently are looking anywhere but Newfoundland and Labrador where there seems to be no certainty of anything when it comes to government revenue demands.

John Crosbie is right.

There's a reason Danny spends so much time in Florida

Is this what our energy plan will consist of?

Is this the next call if more of Danny's backbenchers are accused of double-billing taxpayers for lunch and dinner?

These are just light-hearted questions to help pass the weekend.

Iceland shows us how it's done!

A humourous take on the local world.

1. Codfish killed by sulpher pollution?

2. U Iceland research budget tripled. Sounds great until you read the story and see that the increase is US$8.9 million each year.

Sounds wonderful until you check closer to home. According to the most recent inventory, Memorial University attracts about $90 million in research every year including $4.0 million from the province (despite our massive debt burden).

But here's something even more interesting: out of that $90 million, about $50 million comes in various forms from the federal government.

Oh yeah. We can learn a lot from Iceland.

3. Every job is important. But this looks a bit like Small Town News of the finest kind.

4. Until no fish swim. Icelandic researchers "finally" find a school of capelin. Now the race is on to issue "temporary" fishing quotas.

5. And we bitch about how hard it is to find a pineapple and starfruit at the local Dominion. Icelanders pay 62% more for groceries than the European Union average.

6. Next we'll hear about the need to develop a local psychic hotline industry.

All of which is proof once again that when they aren't creating yet another blog on which to promise great things to come that either never come or aren't so great, some people spend way too much time surfing the Internet without understanding what it is they find there.

Tory website vanishes

With all the problems in his administration, maybe Danny Williams just can't get in there and find the reason why his party's website has been down.

Lord knows nothing can happen without his express approval, so maybe he just has too much on his plate to debug the html.

The site's been down for days.

As of noon on Saturday, it's still not loading.

Hmmmmmm, as Watton would say.

What Harper got in writing

At the upcoming first ministers meeting, expect to hear the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador talk a lot about what he got in writing from Steve Harper.

What you won't hear the diminutive, dyspeptic Dannyboy say is what Harper got in writing from him:

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is advocating...(3) comprehensive revenue coverage (which would include, in full, all renewable and non-renewable natural resources)... [Emphasis added]

Don't expect Williams to head for the parapets in defence of that one; which of course makes John Crosbie's observations all the more prescient.

Adios Jim-bo

Jim Hodder announced his resignation from the House of Assembly today, for health reasons.

He becomes the third Tory to pull pin in little over a month, thereby forcing Premier Danny Williams to call no fewer than three by-elections by the middle of March.

Other names are due to come just as they will for the Liberals too. The thing is it is so strange for a first-term party fresh off years on the opposition benches to suffer attrition at such a rate. Including the three already declared, Bond Papers has about another seven names who either won't run again or who are in danger of losing their seats for one reason of another.

A year ago that list of Tories dead or on life support was completely blank.

Hodder deserves a proper send-off, for this is second retirement from politics.

Hodder was first elected in 1975 as a Liberal, crossed the floor in the 1980s to sit with the Conservatives and subsequently served in Peckford's cabinet. After resigning from politics in the 1990s he ran again after a brief absence and was re-elected.

For those who read this far, here's a bonus question for 10 points:

What other current member of the provincial legislature with a career profile very similar to Hodder's is also looking at resigning from the legislature?

This other Liberal cum Tory from the Class of 1975 is planning to run against Scott Simms [Right, not exactly as illustrated].

Hint: unlike Hodder, this re-tread made it to cabinet again.

And this just in...

Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.

Really old people who watched Saturday Night Live from episode one will get the joke.

To be sure, vocm.com does report tons of useful information daily and a couple of weekends ago they outed a major story.

This one just struck the funny bone.

Lono nominated

At least two Liberals in the federal riding of St. John's North read that and fainted.

They should read this instead.

Good on ya, buddy.

The two Liberals will have to wait to faint at the other nomination.

Danny Williams: Public Enemy Number One

Ok.

So the headline on John Crosbie's latest column might be a bit overdone, calling Newfoundland and Labrador's dyspeptic first minister the greatest current threat to national unity.

Crosbie's observation are still spot on, as the audio of his interview with CBC's Jeff Gilhooley.

Lono, at Offal News, has a good take on it, as well.

The age of persuasion

Around this neck of the woods, Thursdays at noon are the time when things go mostly quiet and we flip on CBC Radio One.

That's the time for "O'Reilly and The Age of Persuasion", ad man Terry O'Reilly's look at his business.

There's no way to describe the show and goodness knows the CBC website for the thing would definitely not lead you to suspect you will be getting a half hour that provokes and entertains while it educates.

That's okay.

There's a blog, but it really isn't very exciting.

That's okay, too.

Over at the website for O'Reilly's agency - Pirate Radio and TV - you will get every conceivable indication of just exactly how creative and possibly insane O'Reilly and company are. Pirate does its own work but it also subcontracts production for other agencies.

This is the Internet presence of a truly inventive bunch of people. Click on "Reels" in the top menu and you get samples of their work.

Like the Irving Mainway radio spots for Target that - if memory serves - won an award the first time they aired. O'Reilly directed them. They are actually a variation on a concept originally used for Labatt in another market to push its bedrock line, Blue. The Labatt concept involved having an actor making calls at random to unsuspecting businesses - out of the blue, get it? - with a simple but potentially funny scenario. The whole thing dependend very much on getting the right person on the other end of the phone but odds are good that with a few calls, you could wind up with 30 seconds or so of radio that truly stands out from the clutter.

In the Irving spots, the calls were to people who had won an item in a Mainway contest. They worked really well the first time they aired, since it was hysterical listening to some guy answer questions about winning a bottle of juice as if it were a million bucks. He's humouring this over-the-top chick making the call. However, by the second or third season, the whole thing got tired.

There are some devastatingly funny radio spots for everything from the Toronto Symphony Orchestra to a Toronto car dealership. None of it - absolutely none of it - is conventional.

Is there talent enough to do this kind of creative work around here?

You betcha.

The challenge is finding the clients willing to go with it.

Meanwhile in Nova Scotia

The Premier is having troubles of his own.

Check the latest at the Daily News here, here and here.

The Canadian Press version is here.

The root of his problem comes from someone asking a simple couple of questions:

What did you know?

When did you know it?

More people should ask those questions.

Why Loyola left

They had a deal Sully could live with on Equalization.

Danny was of a different mind.

Instead of being a meeting to formally agree, this one will likely be the scene for another Danny tirade. Don't be surprised if he stages some storm-out to avoid having his fellow Premiers rip him a new one for his petulant, self-interested posturing.

Just like the last time.

Notice the date, though.

February 7.

Hmmmmm.

Would be convenient to use a problem with Equalization where Danny supposedly stands alone against the rest of the Premiers and the Prime Minister as an excellent excuse to call an election.

And, as Danny knows full well, he doesn't have to recall the House to drop the writ.

Fishery Products back on the block

CBC News is reporting that talks are underway - again - that might see Fishery Products International Limited's (FPIL) groundfish assets in Newfoundland and Labrador sold off.

As in the last go 'round, two of the potential buyers are Barry Group and Ocean Choice, owned by the Penney Group.

A third proposal is expected from FPI management.

As noted on Bond Papers last May, the goal of the provincial government's changes to the FPI legislation was actually to make it easier to break up the company and sell off the assets. The FPI bill gave cabinet the authority to approve any sale of FPI assets. Under the original Act, a sale of assets would have required a change to the legislation, meaning it would had to come before the legislature for public debate.

Here's why our weather is warmer

Forget global warming, El Nino and cow flatulence.

Newfoundland and Labrador is experiencing milder than usual weather because the weather office is back in Gander.

Iintergovernmental affairs minister John Ottenheimer is quoted as saying "[w]e are committed to examining opportunities where the federal government and the province can benefit from an increase in federal jobs in Newfoundland and Labrador...", after he reminded us that the weather office thing was a Conservative party commitment during the last election.

Unfortunately, Minister Ottenheimer forgot that almost exactly one year ago, the chief Conservative party representative in Newfoundland and Labrador reminded us all that the weather office was the sum total of the commitment.

After all, as Hearn noted, federal jobs that come merely from our tax dollars aren't sustainable.

And it isn't even sweeps week

CRA polling doesn't start up again until October, but already the publicity machine on The Hill is cranking out happy news.

Like this one from the innovation minister's department on a regional trade mission to Florida. It's a general one that says - in so many words - about the same thing as this one from December 14, 2006 and this ministerial statement from December 5, 2006.

It's all great to hear that local companies are making inroads in overseas markets, but how many times can we say essentially the same thing?

Is someone trying to qualify for a Tobin Award - most news releases from a single event or incident?

From the headline - "Florida More Than a Vacation Destination" - some people would likely mistake this for an account of the Premier's favourite place during the winter months.

Another jihad in the offing

Will Gander get the same level of attention in the meantime as Deer Lake?

Update: Of course, Gander is not in the district of a provincial politician accused of double billing her constituents - and the rest of the province's taxpayers - for expenses.

Outmigration details

Statistics Canada figures for the third quarter of 2006 show that outmigration from Newfoundland and Labrador that quarter was the third highest quarterly decline since 1993.

Latest NL Executive Council fashion accessory

Do they have to pay for it or are these covered on an expense claim?

Did Danny say this?

Yes.

Last week.

Announcing that John Hickey would be relieved of his cabinet duties over accusations he has filed duplicate expense and travel claims to the House of Assembly totalling over $3700.

"I have done what I have done because, as the premier of the province, if I have a person in my cabinet [with] any kind of cloud over at all, [I must] either ask them to resign or move them aside until that cloud passes or is dealt with."

This week, the Auditor General issued a public report, recommending the matter be referred to the police.

The local constabulary has opened a file.

Williams response - contrary to a longstanding tradition designed to protect the integrity of government and the administration of justice - was to restore Hickey to cabinet and begin an orchestrated spin campaign involving Williams himself, Hickey and Kathy Goudie, another member of the legislature accused of submitted duplicate claims.

Doing the right

In Labrador, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have demonstrated they the can do right in addition to desiring it.

The bills so nice they claimed them twice

Roger Grimes and Ralph Wiseman - both former members of the legislature - are right on this one: ultimately the submission of claims is the responsibility of the person making the claim.

If members of the House of Assembly didn't submit duplicate claims for the same service, there wouldn't be any double billing.

Looking at the Hickey and Goudie reports, and allowing for the peculiarities of the Auditor General's reporting, though, it's difficult to say that Goudie and Hickey didn't appreciate that by submitting two separate claims using two different means of documentation for the same service that they were doing something that was definitely not kosher.

Premier Danny Williams has tried to apply another frame to these most recent accusations as part of his effort to tamp down the scandal that has now embraced his own ministry directly.

Curious to see experienced reporters accepting the Premier's explanations before they saw the details of what is alleged to have occurred. It'll be more curious if they stick to the same interpretation now that they have seen more information.

Among the curiosities in the latest portion of the House of Assembly spending scandal:

- A member of the legislature reimbursed for a meal dated three months before she was first elected.

- Two members of the legislature submitting different claim forms for the same service and being paid for both. Sometimes the payment was on the same day; sometimes the payments came weeks apart.

- Credit card receipts or debit receipts submitted for meal claims showing one amount; the restaurant invoice submitted for the same meal on a separate invoice showing a different amount.

- One member receiving double payment of per diems for meals and accommodations normally paid when the House is in session, for dates when the House was not sitting.

- Double claiming $775 in donations to various groups, one donation being for $500.

- A member claiming three days of per diems and receiving double payment ten days apart.

- A member submitting two separate claims for a $500 donation using two different receipts and a cancelled cheque as supporting documentation. The dates on each of the three supporting documents shows a different date for the donation.

Afrighting the ear

Lumber World has been running a radio spot on VOCM for way too many months now extolling the virtues of Bruce brand hardwood flooring.

There's some reference to Shakespeare and "trodding the boards", presumably to attach the hardwood flooring to some sort of elegance, grace and education.

Unfortunately this is a good example of a truly hideous radio spot where both the writing and the voicing wind up affrighting the ear of any listener with half a clue.

Not only is there a meaningless hodge-podge of some Shakespearean dialogue, one portion of which sounds like the prologue of Henry V, but the guy pretending to be an actor obviously has no idea what he is reading.

The word is Agincourt - pronounced "aazhincour". This guy pronounces it as if it were Jethro Bodean's way of saying "again".

Just so you get the point, here's Derk Jacobi's performance, from the 1989 Branagh version. No one's expecting the VOCM guy to deliver a performance worthy of one of the finer actors around, but at least we could expect that he could get the pronunciation right.

No one said you'd asked for it, Jerome

We just said Danny would offer you the job.

All Jerome Kennedy [right] did on Monday was confirm that Danny Williams hasn't approached him - yet - about taking an appointment to cabinet.

Ok.

At a Monday news conference, the Premier did admit he'd considered making Kennedy an offer, presumably that Kennedy couldn't refuse. But Danny Williams said he hadn't spoken to Kennedy.

Yet.

And then there's Dr. Fitz

Odd to hear a story on CBC Radio this morning discussing the activities of His Excellency the High Commissioner in Ottawa.

Sources tell CBC News that FitzGerald — who taught courses at Memorial University before being appointed last year as what he at the time described as the province's eyes and ears in Ottawa — has not had a significant impact during his eight months on the job.

Sources say FitzGerald does not have much traction with Ottawa mandarins, and lacks the power to negotiate on behalf of the province.

The audio version had a bit more detail, noting, for example, that after Stephen Harper's trip to Dannyland in October, His Excellency was despatched to the Langevin Block to set things right with the Prime Minister.

Fitz was left outside the office cooling his jets, reduced to offering to walk with the PMO staffer to his next appointment if need be.

Such is the impact Danny's man has on The Hill.

If they haven't already started, CBC Radio should expect angry e-mails flying from the Blackberrys at the Premier's publicity departments and threats of legal action from Fitz's legal counsel.

Fitz is nothing if not touchy.

He didn't say that before

Danny's threatening to stay around as long as it takes to sort out the House of Assembly mess.

It's not like he said that before.

No. This is a new promise to stay as long as it takes.

Don't think of it as used.

Shop-worn even.

Think of it more like a previously-loved comment.

Only driven by a little old premier once a week during a scrum during the latest jihad against foreign infidels:

"I can tell Exxon Mobil that I will be in this office when this project gets done … If that takes 10 terms, and the people of Newfoundland and Labrador want to re-elect us time and time again, we'll stay here till this is done," he said.

"They won't wait us out."

That's what he said in April, after the Hebron talks collapsed and Danny promised that in retaliation he was gonna "take ExxonMobil out."

Yeah. Right. Like that happened.

Of course, Danny Williams is fond of bitching about the burden he carries and mused out loud - after getting back from the latest trip to Florida for the weekend - about retiring so he doesn't have to slog away 24/7 on behalf of his ungrateful subjects for the betterment of the province.

Heck, Danny's frustration got so bad before Christmas, he even announced his retirement to VOCM, albeit about four years in advance.

So we can all rest assured Danny Williams will be here for another term or four until Hebron is sorted out and the House of Assembly is fixed.

or he will be gone after the next election.

or not.